29 September 2004
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Iraq Weekly Status
(NSC)
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This briefing is classified
UNCLASSIFIED
Derived from: Multiple Sources
UNCLASSIFIED
29 September 2004
Table of Contents
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SECTION
SLIDE(S)
1.0 Highlights
3-4
2.0 Political Affairs
2.1 Governance
5-6
3.0 Economic Affairs
3.1 Economy
7-9
3.2 Essential Services
10-14
3.3 Oil and Power
15-20
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4.0 Reconstruction
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5.0 Security
4.1 IRRF Financial Status
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5.1 Security and Stability
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5.2 Security and Stability (Secret)
23-39
6.0 General Information
40
2
UNCLASSIFIED
29 September 2004
Highlights
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Political/Governance
National Elections:
• Planning continues for Iraq’s national elections in January. An Independent
Electoral Commission of Iraq has compiled an initial voter roll and will soon
announce instructions on voting rules and procedures.
Economic
School Openings:
• Iraqi universities opened September 25 and K-12 Schools are scheduled to open
on October 2.
Credit Bank of Iraq Purchased:
• National Bank of Kuwait agreed to purchase 75 percent of the Credit Bank of
Iraq.
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UNCLASSIFIED
29 September 2004
Highlights
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Reconstruction
Reallocation of Iraq Relief and Reconstruction Fund (IRRF) Spending:
• A proposal to shift $3.46 Billion of the Iraq Relief and Reconstruction Fund (IRRF)
to improve security, boost oil output and prepare for national elections was
introduced last week and is awaiting final approval from Congress. The House
has passed the Continuing Resolution (CR) that included the IRRF reallocation
legislative language by an overwhelming margin. The CR will now move to the
Senate.
Security
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Security Forces Update:
• A new Joint Coordination Center (JCC) opened this week in central Iraq city of
Baqubah north of Baghdad. The JCC, which is accessed by callers dialing “123”
(the Iraqi version of “911”), is capable of dispatching police, traffic control, Iraqi
National Guard, MNF-I, Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) teams, ambulance,
rescue and fire assets. JCC Baqubah joins JCC Muqdadiyah already in operation.
4
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29 September 2004
Governance - Developments
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Planning Iraq Elections Continues:
• The Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq (IECI) has completed an initial
voter roll. Starting next week the Iraqi people will receive instructions on voter
registration procedures. Iraqi leaders are determined to improve security
throughout the country before scheduled elections at the end of January.
Iraqi Women Receive Democracy Training
• The State Department has begun implementing grants programs aimed at
integrating Iraqi women into the political process. Through the Iraqi Women’s
Democracy Initiative, Iraqi women will be trained in political leadership, advocacy,
entrepreneurship and organizational skills.
Iraq to be Removed from List of State Sponsors of Terror
• President Bush has issued a determination removing Iraq from the list of state
sponsors of terrorism due to the country’s fundamental changes in leadership and
policies. Iraq was first placed on the list in September 1990.
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UNCLASSIFIED
29 September 2004
Governance - Developments
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NATO Support in Iraq Expands:
• NATO agreed to expand its training mission in Iraq, creating a military training
academy to bolster Iraqi security forces. The mission has also helped Iraq rebuild
its Defense Ministry and Military Headquarters.
Capacity Building:
• USAID continues to implement local governance activities in 18 governorates,
increasing Iraqis’ understanding of democratic principles and the political process.
– Twelve district and sub-district council members from At’ Tamim
Governorate participated in a training seminar entitled “Budgeting: A
Democratic Process”. Participants discussed the historic role of the
council and proposed budgeting processes and decisions.
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UNCLASSIFIED
29 September 2004
Economy
Oil Update:
D • Crude Oil prices in world markets for the week ending 24 September closed with Kirkuk
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Crude at $38.05/barrel, Basra Light at $39.60/barrel, and the OPEC basket at $41.45/barrel.
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Employment Update:
A
Number of Iraqis employed by USG-administered projects in each sector
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Ira q i s la s t
Ira q is th is
% In c re a s e o n
M
week
w eek
w eek
S e c to r
E B u ild in g s , H ea l t h & E d u c a t io n
3 ,7 26 *
3 ,7 0 0 *
-0 .7 %
N E le c t r ic it y
3 ,9 19 *
3 ,9 0 0 *
-0 .5 %
T O il
4 11
483
1 7 .5 %
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P u b lic W o rk s & W a t e r
Se c u rit y & J u s t i c e
T ra n s p o rt a t i o n & C o m m u n ic a t io n s
AIR P
3 50
6 ,5 60 *
1 46
1 4 ,6 43
P C O W e e k ly S u r ve y T O T A L
2 9 ,7 5 5
2 8 ,1 8 8
U S A ID
4 5 ,8 4 4
1 ,10 0
7 6 ,6 9 9
4 6 ,3 0 9
2 73
7 4 ,7 7 0
M ILCO N T O T A L
GRAN D TOTAL
Note : * projected figures used
N/P
380
6 ,5 0 0 *
146
1 3 ,0 7 9
8 .6 %
-0 .9 %
0 .0 %
-1 0 .7 %
- 5 .3 %
1 .0 %
-7 5 . 2 %
- 2 .5 %
Data as of 22 Sept
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UNCLASSIFIED
29 September 2004
Economy (cont.)
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Iraq Securities Exchanges:
• At the New Iraqi Dinar (NID) auction on September 27, the settlement price was
1,465 dinars per dollar. This is the first NID exchange rate fluctuation (0.3%)
since June 17. A total of 17 banks traded.
Tokyo Donors Meeting:
• The third meeting of the Donors Committee of the International Reconstruction
Fund Facility for Iraq (IRFFI) will be held October 13-14, 2004. The goals of this
meeting include:
– Providing the Iraqi Interim Government with the opportunity to present
directly its vision, priorities and medium-term economic policy.
– Urge accelerated disbursement of existing pledges from donor countries and
accelerated implementation by the UN and World Bank of IRFFI projects.
– Upgrade donor countries regarding how much the Trust Fund has already
spent and what the results are on the ground.
– Although not a pledging conference, encourage donors to announce
additional assistance.
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29 September 2004
Economic Development
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Purchase of the Credit Bank of Iraq:
• National Bank of Kuwait, the Arab lender with the highest credit rating, agreed
to buy the Credit Bank of Iraq in what may be the first foreign purchase of an
Iraqi lender in at least four decades.
• National Bank will hold 75 percent of the Iraqi bank and the World Bank's
International Finance Corporation will hold 10 percent.
Agriculture Development:
• Multi-National Forces, in cooperation with Texas A&M University, Colorado
State University, Kansas State University, and the World Wide Wheat
Company, will distribute more than 1,000 pounds of wheat seeds to Iraqi
farmers located in the Ninevah Province by October.
• The Iraqis will plant the seed variants in test plots to see which species show
the most potential.
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UNCLASSIFIED
29 September 2004
Essential Services - Water and Sanitation
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Current Projects:
• The sewage treatment system in Baghdad, which was barely functioning for
years before the conflict, will now be restored to almost 100-percent capacity
and will serve 80-percent of Baghdad’s 4.7 million inhabitants.
• An anticipated total of 11.8 million Iraqis will benefit from USAID’s $600M in
water and sanitation projects.
• The Iraqi Airport is undergoing a $1.3 million renovation project to revamp the
water treatment plant. The plant was operating at full capacity before the war,
yet lacked maintenance and chemicals to render water suitable for human
consumption. Project completion is slated for the end of October.
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UNCLASSIFIED
29 September 2004
Essential Services - Food Security
Public Distribution System (PDS) and MOT-Awarded Contracts:
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E • Embassy officials are in receipt of 94 contracts under MOT II, that include pulses, infant
formula, vegetable oil/ghee, tea, infant cereals and adult milk, which have been
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compiled and will be used to track those shipments.
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• The MOT has concluded contracts for 8,000 MT of infant formula from France and
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Switzerland, scheduled for delivery between Sept – Nov, 2004 which will meet PDS
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infant formula requirements through the end of the year.
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N • The MOT awarded contracts under MOT-2 for 127,000 MT of vegetable oil/ghee,
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however, financing is pending. Delivery is expected to occur in tranches through the
end of 2004, which will meet PDS requirements for the next three months.
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F • MOT-1 rice procurements will meet PDS needs through the end of October. The MOT
has awarded 175,000 MT in rice contracts to Thailand under MOT-2, which will meet
PDS needs through the end of the year. Contracts for an additional 175,000 MT, which
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would meet its 3-month buffer stock requirements, are pending.
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T • Under MOT-2, the Embassy confirmed contracts for pulses have been awarded. These
include a contract for 15,000 MT of lentils for immediate delivery, and an additional
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64,000 MT of lentils and 36,000 MT in chickpeas and red beans, delivered monthly
through the end of 2004.
N/P
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UNCLASSIFIED
29 September 2004
Essential Services - Health Care
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Current Projects:
• IRMO Ministry of Health and Project and Contracting Office representatives
made a two day trip to the Najaf Teaching Hospital and the Maternity Hospital;
both facilities are proceeding according to schedule.
– The teaching hospital will open with limited capabilities (i.e. Emergency
Room, and Administration Services) on or about September 30th.
– The maternity hospital is preparing for phase one to include water sterilization
system improvement and HVAC.
Preparations for March:
• Local officials are preparing for between three and seven million visitors to
Karbala on September 29-30 to observe the birthday of the Twelfth Imam,
Muhammed al-Mahdi, whom the Shia believe will reappear before Judgment
Day.
• The Ministry of Health is making the appropriate preparations for this march and
potential problems to include a tent hospital for casualties.
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UNCLASSIFIED
29 September 2004
Essential Services – Education
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Highlights:
• Iraqi universities opened September 25. Expected enrollment is approximated
at 350,000 students.
• K-12 Schools are scheduled to open on October 2 with expected enrollment
between 5-6 million children.
• Universities now have standardized pay scale policies and international
relationships/exchanges that were nonexistent in January 2004.
School Rehabilitation:
• Of the estimated 20,000 schools in 14,924 buildings in Iraq:
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– 80 percent (11,939) need some sort of repair following the looting when the
former regime fell.
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– 40 percent (5,970) need major rehabilitation.
– 9 percent (1,343) are in need of demolition or rebuilding.
– The country's schools, however, were never in good condition. In 2002, the
UN estimated that half of all school toilet facilities did not meet basic hygienic
standards. To date, over 3,105 schools have been renovated and an
estimated 4,500 new schools requiring construction.
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UNCLASSIFIED
29 September 2004
Essential Services - Telecommunications
• Total number of telephone subscribers in Iraq is now over 1,579,457 (including
779,725 cell phone subscribers) – 91.7% above pre-war levels.
• There are now 799,732 land line telephone subscribers in Iraq, compared with
833,000 subscribers pre-war.
41 0,
43
2
550,000
500,000
450,000
North
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Active (APR 03)
Reinstated Post Conflict
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2, 000
96 50
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5, 20
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South Central
Active subscribers (SEP 04)
94 50
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15 30
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15 30
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24 ,5
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Baghdad
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50,000
21 1,
93
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100,000
6, 200
150,000
14 1,
80
250,000
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300,000
43 50
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350,000
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400,000
200,000
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Telephone Subscribers in Iraq
600,000
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0
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South
Out of service
As of Sept 23
• The Communication sector initiated development of the first task order to NANA
Pacific for the Wireless Broadband requirement to support this important
requirement for the Iraqi government ministries.
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UNCLASSIFIED
29 September 2004
Electricity Overview
MW Hrs Actual
MW Hrs 7 Day Av.
Pre-w ar MWH (Est.)
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
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00
04
17
/2
9/
7/
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9/
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4
4
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/2
8/
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18
/2
8/
8/
20
8/
29
/2
00
4
4
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7/
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/2
04
7/
9/
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7/
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/2
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4
4
00
6/
04
19
/2
6/
9/
20
6/
00
4
4
30
/2
5/
5/
20
/2
00
00
4
4
10
/2
5/
30
/2
00
00
4/
20
/2
00
4/
10
/2
4/
4
4
4
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4
3/
31
/2
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4
21
/2
00
3/
3/
11
/2
04
-
1/
20
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Goal
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Megawatt Hour Production (MWH)
MWH
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• On average 470 MW of generation capacity was scheduled offline and
while 263 MW was unscheduled for maintenance.
• 7 Day Average: 107,487 MWH.
15
UNCLASSIFIED
29 September 2004
Hours of Power
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UNCLASSIFIED
29 September 2004
Crude Oil Production
3.00
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MOO Goal: 2.5 MBPD
2.50
2.00
Millions of Barrels Per Day
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1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
30 July - 8 August
9-15 August
16-22 August
23-29 August
30 August - 5
Septem ber
6-12 Septem ber
13-19 Septem ber
20-26 Septem ber
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Production
Target
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A • Weekly Average of 2.637 MBPD Exceeds Target of 2.5 MBPD
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• Long Term Ministry of Oil (MOO) Target (Dec 04): 2.8 – 3.0 MBPD (Pre-War Capacity)
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• Pre-War Peak: 2.5 MBPD in Mar 03
• Post-War Peak: 2.650 MBPD
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UNCLASSIFIED
29 September 2004
Monthly Export: Volume & Revenue
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Revenue ($B)
Iraqi Export (MBPD)
2.000
$2.00
1.825
1.804
1.800
$1.80
1.524
1.600
1.541
1.537
$1.60
1.406
1.380
1.382
1.400
$1.40
1.148
1.149
1.200
1.114
$1.20
0.983
1.000
$1.00
0.800
$0.80
0.646
0.600
$0.60
0.322
0.400
$0.40
0.200
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0.200
$0.20
0.20
0.36
0.44
0.73
0.89
1.21
1.26
1.26
1.10
1.61
1.50
1.36
1.28
1.45
1.30
Jun-03
Jul-03
Aug-03
Sep-03
Oct-03
Nov-03
Dec-03
Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-04
Jun-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
0.000
$0.00
• September Monthly Export: 1.703 MBPD
• September Monthly Revenue: $1.419B
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Revenue ($Billions)
Millions of Barrels Per Day
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UNCLASSIFIED
29 September 2004
Refined Products
Production %
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100%
15%
Percentage of Monthly Target Reached This Week
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Import %
80%
31%
22%
60%
4%
86%
40%
58%
56%
Benzene
LPG
45%
20%
0%
Diesel
Kerosene
Note: Kerosene target increased for upcoming winter months, while the target number for benzene was reduced.
• Diesel: 18.2 ML of 18 ML
• Kerosene: 7.3 ML of 15 ML
• Benzene: 17.0 ML of 19.1 ML
• LPG: 3,152 tons of 4,000 tons
19
UNCLASSIFIED
29 September 2004
National Stock Levels
Aug-04
Sep-04
Goal
30
28
The amount of stocks reflects maximum consumption rates set earlier this year. The goal is for all
refined products to be over 15 days w orth of stocks. The numbers given below are monthly
averages.
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25
20
Days of Stocks
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N
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17
17
17
17
15
12
12
10
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5
0
Diesel
Kerosene
Benzene
• National stock levels of diesel continuing to decline.
• Averages are monthly.
20
LPG
UNCLASSIFIED
29 September 2004
Iraq Relief and Reconstruction Fund (IRRF) – Financial Status
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2207
Committed
Sector
Apportioned
Apportioned
Security and Law Enforcement
3,235
Electricity Sector
Report
Obligated
Disbursed
Last
Week
Current
Last
Week
Current
Last
Week
Current
3,124
2,746
2,748
1,939
1,971
622
623
5,374
2,845
2,479
2,658
1,990
1,971
279
300
Oil Infrastructure
1,701
1,701
1,218
1,168
720
675
42
43
Justice, Public Safety, and Civil Society
1,041
867
732
744
378
426
47
50
Democracy
541
541
522
522
417
417
77
77
Education, Refugees, Human Rights, Governance
259
259
241
241
129
129
26
26
Roads, Bridges, and Construction
360
267
256
256
138
142
10
10
Health Care
786
784
715
760
385
406
2
2
Transportation and Communications
500
499
411
357
219
169
10
11
Water Resources and Sanitation
4,246
1,069
890
930
679
716
18
19
Private Sector Development
183
135
127
127
93
93
34
34
Admin Expense (USAID, State)
213
29
29
29
29
29
22
22
18,439
12,120
10,366
10,540
7,116
7,144
1,189
1,217
CONSTRUCTION
12,316
6,625
5,956
6,073
4,507
4,502
NON-CONSTRUCTION
5,582
4,954
3,888
3,945
2,192
2,225
DEMOCRACY
541
541
522
522
417
417
Sub-Total [IRRF-2]
18,439
12,120
10,366
10,540
7,116
7,144
1,217
Sub-Total [IRRF-1]
2.475
2.475
2,100
2,100
1,292
GRAND TOTAL
20,914
14,595
9,216
9,244
2,509
Sub-Total [IRRF-2]
Data as of 22 September 2004
21
UNCLASSIFIED
29 September 2004
Stability Contributors - OIF
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N
T
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Countries with forces in Iraq
29
Albania
Australia
Azerbaijan
Bulgaria
Czech Rep
Denmark
El Salvador
Estonia
Georgia
Hungary
Italy
Japan
Kazakhstan
Korea
Latvia
Lithuania
Data as of 23 Sep 04
Countries committed to provide
forces for Iraq
TOTAL ~25K
1
Macedonia
Moldova
Mongolia
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Singapore*
31 Countries
(including US)
and NATO
Slovakia
Tonga
Ukraine
UK
Potentially Supporting
Iraqi Stability Operations
22
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
29 September 2004
Iraq Weekly Status – General Information
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• Development, coordination and distribution responsibilities for the Iraq
Weekly Status Report have been transferred from the Department of
Defense to the Department of State.
• This brief draws from multiple sources. References are cited on the
respective pages in the “Notes Page” section (View ! Notes Page).
• Please forward all questions and/or comments to (unclassified) NEA-IIPOG-DL@state.gov or (classified) NEA-I-IPOG-DL@state.sgov.gov
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