01 December 2004
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Iraq Weekly
Status Report
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
Table of Contents
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SECTION
SLIDE(S)
Highlights
3
1.0 Security
4
2.0 Elections
5
3.0 Jobs and Essential Services
7
4.0 Economy
14
5.0 Governance/ Rule of Law
21
6.0 International Engagement & Support
24
7.0 General Information
25
2
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
Highlights
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Elections
• 228 political entities, including all of the major political parties, have registered
for the 30 January elections.
• Party certification registration has been extended by the Independent Elections
Commission of Iraq (IECI) until 2 December in Al Anbar, Ninewa, and Salah ad
Din provinces. Certification has ended elsewhere in Iraq.
• IECI has extended deadline for submission of candidate lists until 10 December
– not to affect the 30 January election date. Iraqi political figures continue to
negotiate lists and develop coalitions.
Jobs and Essential Services
• MOT II (pulses, infant formula, vegetable oil/ ghee, tea, infant cereals, and adult
milk) is on target to meet the needs of the Public Distribution System (PDS) in
December and January.
3
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
Highlights
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Economy
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International Engagement and Support
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• Iraqi employment figures are increasing in both USG administered and private
sectors. USG administered projects currently employ over 120,000 Iraqis.
Governance
• Members of an Iraqi delegation concluded a week long fact-finding visit to the
International Commission on Missing Persons. The delegation included the Iraqi
Minister for Human Rights of Iraq and the head of the Baghdad Medico-Legal
Institute.
• The UN trust fund allowing for countries to contribute to the UN Protection Force
was created this week.
4
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
Security – Iraqi Security Forces Update
Iraqi Security Forces
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Trained/On Hand
Required
47,342
135,000
1,091
3,720
168
270
14,593
29,360
Highway Patrol
370
6,300
Bureau of Dignitary Protection
484
500
2,713
27,000
43,445
61,904
2,894
6,584
Police
Civil Intervention Force
Emergency Response Unit
Border Enforcement
Army
National Guard
O
F
Intervention Force
Special Operations Force
587
1,967
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Air Force
167
502
Coastal Defense Force
484
582
*114,338
273,689
Total
* The military forces continue to receive advanced unit training.
Data as of 22 Nov 04
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UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
Elections
Elections
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• 228 political entities, including all of the major political parties, have registered
for the 30 January elections.
• Party certification registration has been extended by the Independent Elections
Commission of Iraq (IECI) until 2 December in Al Anbar, Ninewa, and Salah ad
Din provinces. Certification has ended elsewhere in Iraq.
• IECI has extended deadline for submission of candidate lists until 10 December
– not to affect the 30 January election date. Iraqi political figures continue to
negotiate lists and develop coalitions.
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UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
Elections – Developments
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Election Planning continues:
• The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has set up offices in each of the
14 Out of Country voting countries and initiated the negotiation of Memorandums
of Understanding (MOUs).
• In response to calls for a six month delay of elections, PM Allawi and the IECI
have firmly restated that elections will occur on 30 January without delay. Kurdish
political parties also restated their support for the 30 January timeline.
• IECI announced that two staff members in each of the 542 Voter Registration
Centers will be devoted full time to public outreach.
• IECI has established a website: www.ieciraq.org.
Elections Monitoring:
• IECI has issued an open invitation to national and international elections monitors
for the 30 January election.
• Canada has begun involvement in organizing elections monitoring in Iraq in
coordination with the International Federation of Electoral Systems (IFES).
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UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
Elections – Developments
Capacity Building:
D • The National Democratic Institute (NDI) continues training for elections monitors
E
and has established the Iraqi Elections Information Network (IEIN) to coordinate
P
elections activities NGOs and the coalition of domestic elections monitors
A
(CINEM)
R
T • IEIN has an office in Baghdad and four regional offices. Between 5,000 and 8,000
domestic elections monitors will be trained by 30 January. More information can
M
be found at www.iraqiein.org.
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N
T
O
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UNCLASSIFIED
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01 December 2004
Elections – Iraq Elections Timeline
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Timeline
of Significant
Events
Phase I
Phase II
Phase III
Ramadan
National IECI Office
Established
JAN
FEB
Phase IV
Phase V
Hajj
1 Nov-15 Dec Voter
Registration
Governorate IECI
Offices Established
12 Oct
Elections
regulations
published
by IECI
16 Dec – 23 Jan
Campaigning
1 Nov – 8 Dec Entity
Registration
Mid-Nov Begin establishment of
450 IECI District Offices
30 Jan
Election Day
1 Dec Begin Recruitment of
Polling Station Staff
15 Dec Public
Information
Campaign on
Voting Begins
21 Oct Voter registration
materials distributed nationwide
to 21 food warehouses
20 Oct Information campaign on
voter registration begins
Declaration
15-19 Jan
Exhibition
and
Challenge of
voter lists
TNA
Seated
1 Jan Begin process of distributing
ballots
Voter Education Campaign conducted by IECI and NGOs
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UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
Jobs and Essential Services – Economy
Oil Update:
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• Crude Oil prices in world markets for the week ending 26 November closed with Kirkuk
Crude at $34.90/barrel, Basra Light at $33.02/barrel, and the OPEC basket at $38.74/barrel.
Employment Update:
Number of Iraqis employed by USG-administered projects in each sector
Iraqis last Iraqis this % Increase
Employing Organization
week
week
on week
PCO
12,577
13,878
9.4%
USAID
28,918
31,945
9.5%
AIRP
12,100
12,100
0.0%
MILCON/OMA*
2,039
2,039
0.0%
CERP
25,813
25,813
0.0%
MNSTC-I
5,618
5,618
0.0%
IRRF NON-CONSTRUCTION
29,734
28,789
-3.3%
116,799
GRAND TOTAL
Data as of 30 Nov 04
10
120,182
2.8%
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
Jobs and Essential Services – Water and Sanitation
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Water Treatment Projects:
• The Japanese government held an opening ceremony on 29 November for a
reconstruction assistance training program for Iraqis entitled "Water Supply and
Sewage”.
– The Japanese government has implemented various courses of the Third
Country Training Program which trains the people of surrounding Arab
countries in cooperation with the Jordanian government.
– The Third Country Training Program for Iraqis aims at the revival and
reconstruction of the country as scheduled in the cooperation agreement
between Japan and Jordan.
– Japan announced it will extend $1.5 billion in grants in 2004 and $3.5 billion
in loans to Iraq from 2005 to 2007.
• As of 24 November, USAID has 43 water treatment plants under construction
and 11 water treatment plants have been completed. USAID has also
constructed eleven irrigation sites; three more are under construction through
the Project and Contracting Office (PCO).
Waste Water Treatment Projects:
• Through USAID, eleven sewer projects are currently under construction and
two have been completed.
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UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
Jobs and Essential Services – Food Security
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Public Distribution System (PDS) and MOT-Awarded Contracts:
• MOT II (pulses, infant formula, vegetable oil/ghee, tea, infant cereals and adult
milk) is on target to meet the needs of the Public Distribution System (PDS) in
December and January.
• The World Food Program (WFP) has agreed to continue with its pipeline reporting
to track estimated arrivals of shipments.
• The Ministry of Trade has reported that all Letters of Credit (L/Cs) have now been
issued for MOT II and contracts have been amended accordingly. Independently,
the Trade Bank of Iraq reports that all but one L/C have been fully funded.
• For December, in order to avoid wheat shortages, the MOT will mix foreign and
domestic supplies (75:25) for milling and distribution. Additionally, the MOT
reported they awarded a contract for 100,000 MT of wheat flour. Further details
on this contract are pending.
• Embassy officials will meet with the Ministry of Trade again this week to further
the PDS process for MOT III contracts. On November 18, the MOT III tendering
process closed. The MOT plans to award those contracts by the end of this week
which will fulfill February, March and April 2005 requirements.
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UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
Jobs and Essential Services – Health Care
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Current Hospital Rehabilitation Projects:
• Currently, 13 hospitals and 19 public health centers are under renovation.
• Up to 80 new public health centers will begin construction by 1 December. All
equipment for public health centers is based on just-in-time shipment to minimize
warehouse space and to keep warranties up to date.
• The Consortium is one of five university partnerships supported by USAID's
Higher Education and Development (HEAD) Program.
Hospitals Under Construction:
• 59 Primary Health Care (PHC) centers are currently under construction and 110
PHC’s are being renovated through USAID.
• USAID is also managing the construction of the Basrah Children’s Hospital, and
has renovated 19 hospitals to date.
S
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A
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E
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UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
Jobs and Essential Services – Education
Capacity Building – Health:
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• Six boxes of nursing manuals and medical reference materials collected by
Jackson State University and the Mississippi Consortium for International
Development (JSU/MCID) were recently delivered to faculty members of the
medical, dental and nursing colleges at three northern Iraqi universities.
• JSU/MCID is also taking steps to upgrade facilities and enhance the quality of
education at the three universities in northern Iraq including faculty exchange
programs, conference workshops and the development of an advanced graduate
course in global primary health care.
Veterinary Medicine Conference:
• A dean of veterinary medicine at a northern Iraqi university attended an
agricultural conference in Turkey, with the support of USAID's Agricultural Higher
Education and Development (AHEAD) project.
• The conference focused on health and production of ruminants - the class of
animals that includes goats and sheep, presenting 117 research papers on these
issues.
• The dean represented Iraq in conference organizing committee meetings and
was exposed to up-to-date academic work on such topics as measuring blood
statistics in goats and other subjects relevant to northern Iraq, where the raising
of goats and sheep is an important part of the local economy.
UNCLASSIFIED
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UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
Jobs and Essential Services – Telecommunications
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• Total number of telephone subscribers in Iraq is now over 2,135,000 (including
1,175,000 cell phone subscribers) – 156% above pre-war levels.
• There are now 960,000 land line telephone subscribers in Iraq, compared with
833,000 subscribers pre-war, a 15% increase.
Telephone Subscribers
Actually Used
Capacity
Available
550000
500000
450000
400000
350000
300000
O
F
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
W
as
si
t
Th
iQ
ar
M
is
sa
n
M
ut
ha
nn
a
B
as
ra
h
ss
iy
a
f
aj
a
Q
ad
i
N
la
ar
ba
K
ab
il
B
nb
ar
lD
A
al
ah
S
A
in
a
iy
al
D
'a
m
im
va
Ta
in
e
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ag
hd
ad
0
B
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• There are 110,000 internet subscribers, compared with less than 12,000 before
the war. These statistics do not reflect the large number of unregulated users of
Internet cafés.
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UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
Jobs and Essential Services – Electricity Overview
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Goal
Actual
7-day Average
Pre-War
140,000
Fall m aintenance of
generation equipm ent
(dem and at low season)
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
Sept 15 attack on
Baiji oil pipeline
junction
40,000
High num ber of
generators offline due to
unplanned m aintenance
20,000
-
3/
1/
2
3/ 004
11
/2
3/ 004
21
/2
3/ 004
31
/2
4/ 004
10
/2
4/ 004
20
/2
4/ 004
30
/2
5/ 004
10
/2
5/ 004
20
/2
5/ 004
30
/2
0
6/ 04
9/
2
6/ 00
19 4
/2
6/ 004
29
/2
0
7/ 04
9/
2
7/ 00
19 4
/2
7/ 004
29
/2
0
8/ 04
8/
2
8/ 00
18 4
/2
8/ 004
28
/2
0
9/ 04
7/
2
9/ 004
17
/2
9/ 004
27
/2
10 004
/7
/
10 200
4
/1
7
10 /200
/2
7/ 4
2
11 00
/6 4
/
11 200
/1
6/ 4
11 200
/2
4
6/
20
04
O
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Megawatt-Hour (MWh) Load Served
MWh
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N
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• Approximately 1290 MW of generation capacity was offline due to planned
maintenance. Another 1200 MW was offline due to unscheduled maintenance.
• Despite the large amount of MW offline due to maintenance, almost 500 MW
was returned to service this past week.
• 7 Day MWh Average (22-28 Nov): 75,050 MWh.
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UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
Economy – Economic Development
Iraq – Jordan Investment Symposium 2004:
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• The Iraq – Jordan Investment Symposium will take place in Amman, Jordan from
6-9 December, 2004. These meetings are the first in a series of events
addressing soft services associated with the reconstruction effort in Iraq, as well
as neighboring Jordan.
• This will be the first event focused on exposing the multitude of business
opportunities in both the Iraqi and Jordanian marketplaces for Investment Banking
Services, Consulting Services, Privatization Specialists, Asset Managers, Audit
Houses, Financial Restructuring Specialists, and General Consultancy Services.
Econ Governance II Project Implementation:
• Under the USAID Iraq Economic Governance II (IEG II) Program, advisors
continue to implement a government-wide Financial Management Information
System, an automated accounting and budget execution system with online
access and a centralized database.
• The system is already in use at the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Interior, and
Babil Governorate offices and will eventually be implemented in 50 government
offices to allow them to more accurately record financial transactions.
• As part of its efforts to develop fair, effective, and transparent regulation of
economic activity, the IEG II project works to improve utilities regulation and
encourage the use of information technology in the government.
UNCLASSIFIED
17
UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
Economy
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Iraq Currency and Securities Exchanges:
• At the New Iraqi Dinar (NID) auction on 30 November, the settlement price was
1,460 dinars per USD. A total of 17 banks traded. The following table shows
the purchase value of the top five banks:
Bank Name
Al-W arkaa Bank
United Bank
Agriculture Bank
Al-Rasheed
Iraq Bank
Total
Quantity Sold (in thousands of NID)
10,000
8,000
3,140
1,910
1,800
24,850
Percentage of Total Auction
32.14%
25.72%
10.09%
6.14%
5.79%
79.88%
• The Ministry of Finance (MOF) auctioned ID 150 billion (about $102.7 million) in
T-Bills on 21 November; the settlement yield was 1.2 percent with three banks
offering winning bids.
18
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
Economy – Crude Oil Production
2.80
MOO Goal: 2.5 MBPD
2.60
2.40
2.20
Millions of Barrels Per Day
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A
R
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M
E
N
T
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
O
F
1.20
1.00
4-10 October
11-17 October
18-24 October
25-31 October
1-7 Novem ber
8-14 Novem ber
15-21 Novem ber
22-28 Novem ber
S
Production
Target
T
A • Weekly Average (22-28 Nov) of 1.6 MBPD
T
E • Near Term Ministry of Oil (MOO) Target (Dec 04): 2.8 – 3.0 MBPD (Pre-War Capacity)
• Pre-War Peak: 2.5 MBPD in Mar 03
• Post-War Peak: 2.67 MBPD
19
UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
UNCLASSIFIED
Economy – Crude Oil Monthly Export
3.000
$3.00
2.500
$2.50
2.000
Millions of Barrels Per Day
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
1.825
1.524
1.541
1.537
1.382
1.500
1.607
1.406
1.380
1.149
1.148
$1.50
1.199
1.114
0.983
1.000
$1.00
$1.99
$1.61
$1.21
0.500
0.322
$0.73
0.200
$0.20
S
T
A
T
E
$2.00
1.804
1.679
0.646
O
F
Monthly Export (mbpd)
$0.36
$1.26
$1.26
Monthly Revenue ($Billions)
Monthly Revenue (US$B)
$1.75
$1.50
$1.36
$1.10
$1.28
$1.40
$1.24
$1.13
$0.89
$0.50
$0.44
0.000
$0.00
Jun-03
Jul-03
Aug-03
Sep-03
Oct-03
Nov-03
Dec-03
Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
• 2003 Revenue:
Apr-04
May-04
Jun-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Sep-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
$5,076.6M
• 2004 Revenue:
– Pre-Transition:
$8,105.2M
– Post-Transition:
$7,467.5M
20
$15,572.7M
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
Economy – Refined Products Domestic & Imports
Production %
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
100%
Percentage of Monthly Target Reached This Week
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
Import %
80%
31%
46%
49%
51%
50%
Benzene
LPG
45%
60%
40%
60%
20%
39%
0%
Diesel
Kerosene
Note: This chart represents the percentage of target reached for the week of 22-28 Nov
• Diesel: 16.4 ML of 18 ML
• Kerosene: 12.5 ML of 15 ML
• Benzene: 17.3 ML of 18 ML
• LPG: 4,234 tons of 4,300 tons
21
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
Economy – National Stock Levels
Oct-04
Goal
30
25
25
21
20
20
Days of Stocks
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
Nov-04
17
15
14
13
11
10
10
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
5
0
Diesel
Kerosene
Benzene
LPG
• The goal is for all refined products to be over 15 days worth of stocks
at maximum consumption rates and does not represent seasonal
change. The numbers given above are monthly averages.
22
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
Economy – Iraq Relief and Reconstruction Fund (IRRF)
Obligated
Committed
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
Sector
2207
Report
Disbursed
Apportion
Last
Week
Current
Last
Week
Current
Last
Week
Current
Security and Law Enforcement
5045
5045
4030
4130
2849
2898
920
938
Electricity Sector
4350
3627
3481
3469
2416
2408
477
494
Oil Infrastructure
1701
1701
1195
1196
786
786
77
77
Justice, Public Safety, and Civil Society
1121
1120
834
840
547
556
83
88
832
832
474
574
474
574
118
120
Education, Refugees, Human Rights, Governance
379
379
139
139
136
139
36
36
Roads, Bridges, and Construction
359
299
296
292
154
170
24
25
Health Care
786
786
780
780
410
410
6
7
Transportation and Communications
499
443
403
414
209
214
17
17
Water Resources and Sanitation
2311
1365
1342
1339
881
881
33
35
Private Sector Development
843
843
157
336
200
320
49
50
Admin Expense (USAID, State)
213
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
IRRF II SUBTOTAL
18439
16469
13160
13538
9091
9385
1869
1916
11306
9336
8284
8359
5459
5504
6301
6301
4402
4605
3158
3307
832
832
474
574
474
574
IRFF I SUBTOTAL
2475
2475
2474
2474
2418
2418
1763
1763
GRAND TOTAL IRRF I & II
20914
18944
15634
16012
11509
11803
3632
3679
-Democracy
CONSTRUCTION
NON-CONSTRUCTION
DEMOCRACY
Data as of 30 Nov 04
23
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
Governance/ Rule of Law – Refugees, Democracy and Human Rights
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
Iraqi Delegation Visits International Commission on Missing Persons:
• Members of an Iraqi delegation concluded a week long fact-finding visit to the
International Commission on Missing Persons (ICMP). The delegation included
the Iraqi Minister for Human Rights of Iraq and the head of the Baghdad MedicoLegal Institute.
• The goal of this fact-finding visit was to learn about the assistance ICMP can offer
in addressing the missing persons issue in Iraq. Iraqi officials estimate there are
between 300,000 and one million missing persons in Iraq.
• ICMP gave detailed introductions on how to formulate government policy on
missing persons issues as well as sampled technology used to assist in DNAbased identification.
• The Iraqi government is training a team of missing person experts and local
professionals to take on the responsibility of identifying missing persons. Special
training is being conducted to focus on DNA technology training.
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UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
Governance/ Rule of Law – Justice
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
Justice Sector Updates:
• INL Rule of Law Coordinator is planning to attend the UN conference on Rule of
Law and Human Rights in Geneva (13&14 Dec).
• Planning and program development continue for a comprehensive and
sustainable program based on Iraqi priorities.
• Current and ongoing programs initiated under CPA are being evaluated and
incorporated into the comprehensive strategy.
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
25
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
Int’l Engagement & Support – Stability Contributors
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
28
Countries with forces in Iraq (in addition to US)
Albania
El Salvador
Kazakhstan
Mongolia
Slovakia
Australia
Estonia
Korea
Netherlands
Tonga
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Latvia
Norway
Ukraine
Bulgaria
Hungary
Lithuania
Poland
UK
Czech Rep
Italy
Macedonia
Portugal
Denmark
Japan
Moldova
Romania
O
F
TOTAL ~ 25,000 Forces
S
T
A
T
E
29 Countries and NATO
(including US)
Support Iraqi Stability Operations
Data as of 18 Nov 04
26
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
01 December 2004
Iraq Weekly Status – General Information
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
• This brief draws from multiple sources. References are cited on the
respective pages in the “Notes Page” section (View Æ Notes Page).
• Please forward all questions and/or comments to (unclassified) NEA-IIPOG-DL@state.gov or (classified) NEA-I-IPOG-DL@state.sgov.gov
S
T
A
T
E
27
UNCLASSIFIED