09 February 2005
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Iraq Weekly
Status Report
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
09 February 2005
Table of Contents
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SECTION
SLIDE(S)
Highlights
3
1.0 Neutralize the Insurgents
5
2.0 Ensure the Continuation of Support for
Iraq’s Electoral Process through 2005
6
3.0 Create Jobs and Provide Essential Services
10
4.0 Establish Foundations for a Strong Economy
15
5.0 Establish Good Governance, Rule of Law
21
6.0 Maintain International Engagement & Support
23
General Information
25
2
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
09 February 2005
Highlights
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1.0 Neutralize the Insurgents
• Iraq and Coalition forces continue operations to neutralize the insurgents.
2.0 Ensure the Continuation of Support for Iraq’s Electoral Process
through 2005
• All results from polling stations around Iraq have arrived in Baghdad. The
Independent Electoral Commission for Iraq (IECI) is completing the vote count
while addressing complaints about the electoral process.
3.0 Create Jobs and Provide Essential Services
• Over 1,714 construction starts have been made to date -- including 1,359 Iraq
Relief and Reconstruction Fund (IRRF) projects and 354 Accelerated Iraq
Reconstruction Projects (AIRP); 516 projects have been completed, including
268 IRRF projects.
• The Rapid Construction Initiative (RCI) is accelerating reconstruction using
local Iraqi firms, laborers, and suppliers. Thirty-six electrical distribution
projects are under construction and 177 are planned in total. There are now
362 km of village roads under construction, providing sustained, stable, longterm employment in rural areas.
3
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
09 February 2005
Highlights
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4.0 Establish Foundations for a Strong Economy
• USAID’s Private Sector Development II (PSD II) program is working closely
with the Iraqi stock exchange (ISX) and private companies to develop capital
markets. A functioning capital markets system can greatly ease the flow of
investment from Iraqi and foreign sources.
5.0 Establish Good Governance, Rule of Law
• The Local Governance Program’s Policy Research Team (PRT) worked to
finalize the preparation of a concise handbook on Local Government
Associations (LGA) for local councils and civil society organizations.
6.0 Maintain International Engagement and Support
• International reaction to Iraq’s election was extremely positive and the UN and
EU have pledged continued support for Iraq’s electoral process.
4
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
09 February 2005
[1.0] Neutralize the Insurgents – Iraqi Security Forces Update
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COMPONENT
TRAINED & EQUIPPED
POLICE
57,287
HIGHWAY PATROL
COMPONENT
OPERATIONAL
ARMY
56,587
AIR FORCE
186
OTHER MOI FORCES
21,589
NAVY
525
TOTAL
78,876*
TOTAL
57,298**
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Ministry of Defense Forces
Ministry of Interior Forces
Total Trained & Equipped ISF:
136,174
* Ministry of Interior Forces: Unauthorized absences personnel are included in these numbers
** Ministry of Defense Forces: Unauthorized absences personnel are not included in these numbers
Data as of February 7, 2005
5
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
09 February 2005
[2.0] Ensure the Continuation of Support for Iraq’s Electoral Process
through 2005 – Developments
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Election Outcomes:
• All results from polling stations around Iraq have arrived in Baghdad. The
Independent Electoral Commission for Iraq (IECI) is completing the vote count
while addressing complaints about the electoral process.
Elections Monitoring:
• In its report on the Iraqi elections, the Iraqi Election Information Network (EIN) –
comprising 10,000 Iraqi monitors – declared that “the elections were conducted
without systemic flaws and in accordance with basic international standards.”
• EIN noted several voting problems across the country; it estimated that roughly
15,000 voters in Ninewa Province were unable to vote.
• Elections irregularities are being handled by the IECI through the dispute
resolution mechanism as laid out in IECI Regulation 15.
6
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
09 February 2005
[2.0] Ensure the Continuation of Support for Iraq’s Electoral Process
through 2005 – Developments
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Transitional National Assembly (TNA):
• Once announced, the TNA will:
- Serve as Iraq's national legislature until the election of a new government
under a permanent constitution.
- Name a Presidency Council, consisting of a president and two deputy
presidents, that will appoint a prime minister. The Prime Minister and his
Council of Ministers must receive a vote of confidence in the Assembly by a
simple majority.
- According to the Transitional Administrative Law, the TNA will draft Iraq's
new Constitution by August 15, 2005; this will be presented to the Iraqi
people for their approval in a national referendum by October 15, 2005.
- If it is approved, an election for a permanent Iraqi government under that
new Constitution will occur by the end of the year.
7
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
09 February 2005
[2.0] Ensure the Continuation of Support for Iraq’s Electoral Process
through 2005 – Electoral Process Timeline
JAN
FEB
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P
Jan 30
A
R Election Day
T
February
M
Results
E
Announced
N
TNA
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MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
Oct 15 National
Referendum on
Constitution
31 Dec National
Elections for
Permanent
Government
Seated
by end
of Feb
Drafting of Constitution
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UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
09 February 2005
[3.0] Create Jobs and Provide Essential Services – Economy
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Oil Update:
• Crude oil prices in world markets for the week ending January 28 closed with Kirkuk Crude
at $38.13/barrel, Basra Light at $36.76/barrel, and the OPEC basket at $42.63/barrel.
Employment Update:
• Number of Iraqis employed by USG-administered projects in each sector
Iraqis Last Iraqis This
Week
Week
Employing Organization
PCO (Project and Contracting Office)
USAID
AIRP (Accelerated Iraqi Reconstruction Program)
MILCON (Military Construction)
*CERP (Commanders' Emergency Response Program)
MNSTC-I
IRRF NON-CONSTRUCTION
GRAND TOTAL
% Increase
on Week
19,494
48,181
6,850
437
33,671
3,799
13,450
17,521
53,613
5,497
534
33,671
4,035
13,379
-10.1%
11.3%
-19.8%
22.2%
0.0%
6.2%
-0.5%
125,882
128,250
1.9%
*CERP numbers are from the latest GRD Sitrep
Data as of February 3, 2005
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UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
09 February 2005
[3.0] Create Jobs and Provide Essential Services – Job Creation and
Telecommunications
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Rapid Construction Initiative:
• The Rapid Construction Initiative (RCI) is accelerating reconstruction using local
Iraqi firms, laborers, and suppliers. Thirty-six electrical distribution projects are
under construction and 177 are planned in total. There are now 362 km of
village roads under construction, providing sustained, stable, long-term
employment in rural areas.
Telecommunications :
• Installation of the Advanced First Responders Network infrastructure in Baghdad
continues, and Base Transceiver Stations (BTS) in the Baghdad area were
operational before the January 30 election. The remaining BTS sites in Baghdad
are expected to be operational by February 21, and another 15 cities are due to
be operational by June 30.
• Wireless Broadband Network (WBBN) is a project that will provide high capacity
data and voice communications to government sites in Baghdad. Initial
ministries are due to be connected by February 14, and the network is expected
to be operational for all locations by end of March.
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UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
09 February 2005
[3.0] Create Jobs and Provide Essential Services – Health Care and
Transportation
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Health Care Center Renovation:
• Local Governance Program (LPG) specialists visited a health center in
Diwaniyah to supervise its renovation as part of a $65,000 LGP grant through a
Polish civil-military cooperation group. The renovated center and new wing will
serve 3,000 citizens in the area. Restoration is approximately 50 percent
complete.
Transportation:
• Work to refurbish the Air Traffic Control (ATC) Center and Tower at Baghdad
International Airport (BIAP) should be fully complete in February 2005. Like
much of Iraq’s essential infrastructure, the airport’s ATC Center had deteriorated
due to a lack of preventative maintenance over several decades. The ATC
Center’s communications system – which provided a link between BIAP and
other airports and aircraft in the vicinity – was destroyed during the conflict. The
communications link was rehabilitated and is now fully operative.
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UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
09 February 2005
[3.0] Create Jobs and Provide Essential Services – Education
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Building Capacity in the Ministry of Education:
• Twenty-four supplies directors from Iraq’s Ministry of Education (MOE)
participated in a 10-day study tour in Cairo to learn how to deal with issues
related to textbook production and distribution. The tour was part of the
UNESCO Textbook Program for Iraq’s primary and secondary schools that was
funded by a $10 million grant from USAID.
Iraq Millennium Development Goals Update:
• With funding from USAID, the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) is
implementing a comprehensive package of activities designed to help Iraq meet
Millennium Development Goals in public health, sanitation and education. As
part of its efforts to support the MOE in education reforms, UNICEF updated
findings from a national school survey last year; an analytical report on this
survey (Volume II) was recently completed and submitted to the MOE for final
approval.
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UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
09 February 2005
[3.0] Create Jobs and Provide Essential Services – Water and
Sanitation
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Water and Sanitation:
• Work is 60 percent complete on a project to extensively repair the sewage
collection system of a central district of Baghdad. The project will restore critical
elements of the sewage collection system and restore sewage flow from the
district to wastewater treatment facilities. Work is scheduled to be completed in
June and will improve service for about 1.5 million residents.
• Work is 66 percent complete to rehabilitate the water and sewage treatment
plant facilities serving rural, north-central Diyala Governorate. USAID’s project
will generate enough potable water to serve the region’s 60,000 residents. This
project is scheduled to be complete in May.
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UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
09 February 2005
[3.0] Create Jobs and Provide Essential Services – Electricity Overview
Megawatt-Hour (MWh) Load Served
30 June 2005 Goal
Actual
7-day Average
Pre-War
140,000
120,000
100,000
MWh
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80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
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3/
1/
2
3/ 00
15 4
/2
3/ 00
29 4
/2
4/ 00
12 4
/2
4/ 00
26 4
/2
5/ 00
10 4
/2
5/ 00
24 4
/2
0
6/ 04
7/
2
6/ 00
21 4
/2
0
7/ 04
5/
2
7/ 00
19 4
/2
0
8/ 04
2/
2
8/ 00
16 4
/2
8/ 00
30 4
/2
9/ 00
13 4
/2
9/ 00
27 4
10 /20
/1 04
1
10 /20
/2 04
5/
2
11 00
/8 4
11 /20
/2 04
2/
2
12 00
/6 4
12 /20
/2 04
0/
20
1/ 04
3/
2
1/ 00
17 5
/2
1/ 00
31 5
/2
00
5
O
F
Date
• Electricity load served in the last week (31 January - 6 February) hovered slightly below
estimated pre-war levels at 94,000 MWh. Hours of available power averaged 11 hours in
Baghdad.
• Peak demand remains at record levels (>8,000 MW).
• Unplanned and planned outages continue to lower output. At the end of the week, there
were 816 MW and 839 MW, respectively.
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UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
09 February 2005
[4.0] Establish Foundations for a Strong Economy
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Capital Markets Development:
• USAID’s Private Sector Development II (PSD II) program is working closely with
the Iraqi stock exchange (ISX) and private companies to develop capital markets.
PSD II capital markets development activities provide technical assistance to the
ISX to deepen financial markets through training programs, financial instruments,
IT systems, improved procedures, information dissemination, regulation and
oversight. A functioning capital markets system can greatly ease the flow of
investment from Iraqi and foreign sources. Capital markets development efforts
are in the inception phase, with a current focus on assessment and stabilization.
Local Governance Program:
• Local Governance Program (LGP) staff in northern Iraq recently completed data
collection for a strategic planning questionnaire at the Ministry of Municipalities in
preparation for an institutional audit that will be held in February. The
questionnaire, unlike traditional institutional audit questionnaires, focused on how
individual managers perceived the Ministry and its functions. The same
procedures will be used throughout the strategic planning process which is
scheduled to commence on February 15.
– The audit is an example of how LGP is working throughout Iraq to streamline
local fiscal and administrative practices.
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UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
09 February 2005
[4.0] Establish Foundations for a Strong Economy – Crude Oil Production
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F
2.80
MOO Goal: 2.5 MBPD
2.60
2.40
2.20
Millions of Barrels Per Day
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N
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2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
6-12 Decem ber
13-19 Decem ber
20-26 Decem ber
27 Decem ber - 2
S
January
T
Production
A
T • Weekly Average (24 - 30 Jan) of 2.12 MBPD
E • Pre-War Peak: 2.5 MBPD in Mar 03
3-9 January
10-16 January
17-23 January
24-30 January
Target
• Post-War Peak: 2.67 MBPD
16
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
09 February 2005
[4.0] Establish Foundations for a Strong Economy – Crude Oil Export
2.500
$2.50
2.000
$2.00
1.825
1.804
1.679
1.524
1.541
1.537
1.500
1.607
1.513
1.382
1.406
1.380
1.149
1.148
1.462
1.351
$1.50
1.114
0.983
1.000
$1.00
$1.99
$1.61
0.646
$1.21
0.500
$1.50
$1.26
$1.10
$1.36
$1.28
$1.44
$1.40
$1.24
$1.25
$1.31
$0.50
$0.73
0.200
$0.36
$1.26
$1.75
$0.89
0.322
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T
A
T
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Monthly Export (mbpd)
Monthly Revenue ($Billions)
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Monthly Revenue (US$B)
Millions of Barrels Per Day
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P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
$0.44
$0.20
0.000
$0.00
Jun-03
Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05
• 2003 Revenue:
$5,076.6M
• 2004 Revenue:
$17,012.3M
• 2005 Revenue:
$1,312.1M
17
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
09 February 2005
[4.0] Establish Foundations for a Strong Economy – Refined Products
Production %
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200%
180%
Percentage of Monthly Target Reached This Week
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R
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M
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N
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160%
140%
120%
100%
80%
71%
60%
65%
33%
40%
20%
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Import %
32%
44%
14%
26%
12%
0%
Diesel
Kerosene
Benzene
LPG
Note: This chart represents the average percentage of daily target reached for the week of January 24 - 30
• Diesel: 11.3 ML of 17.5 ML
• Kerosene: 5.0 ML of 19.5 ML
• Benzene: 16.4 ML of 18 ML
• LPG: 4,934 tons of 4,300 tons
18
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
09 February 2005
[4.0] Establish Foundations for a Strong Economy – National Stock Levels
Jan-05
Goal
20
15
Days of Stocks
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A
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M
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N
T
10
8
8
7
6
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S
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A
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5
0
Diesel
Kerosene
Benzene
LPG
• The goal is for all refined products to be over 15 days worth of stocks at
maximum consumption rates and does not represent seasonal change. The
numbers given above are monthly averages.
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UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
09 February 2005
[4.0] Establish Foundations for a Strong Economy – IRRF I & II
Financials
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Financial Status-IRRF I & II
Committed
Obligated
Disbursed
Current
Last
Week
Current
Last
Week
Current
4493
4502
3414
3442
1403
1458
4077
3328
3485
2688
2699
715
732
1701
1701
1434
1439
942
935
137
139
1120
1120
946
946
672
672
145
154
832
832
751
751
660
661
207
208
Education, Refugees, Human Rights,
Governance
379
379
227
248
205
220
48
61
Roads, Bridges, and Construction
359
355
283
283
184
184
37
37
Health Care
786
786
750
735
511
497
34
36
Transportation and Communications
513
513
462
462
323
323
33
34
Water Resources and Sanitation
2279
1770
1304
1307
891
898
47
54
Private Sector Development
843
835
402
402
357
357
74
74
Admin Expense (USAID, State)
213
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
IRRF II SUBTOTAL
18439
17442
14409
14589
10876
10917
2909
3016
11306
10378
8626
8762
8645
6513
1486
1522
6301
6232
5032
5076
1571
3743
1216
1286
IRRF II DEMOCRACY
832
832
751
751
660
661
207
208
IRFF I SUBTOTAL
2475
2475
2475
2475
2475
2475
1907
2017
GRAND TOTAL IRRF I & II
20914
19917
16884
17064
13351
13392
4816
5033
Sector
2207
Report
Security and Law Enforcement
Apportion
Last
Week
5045
5045
Electricity Sector
4369
Oil Infrastructure
Justice, Public Safety, and Civil Society
-Democracy
IRRF II CONSTRUCTION
IRRF II NON-CONSTRUCTION
Data as of February 9, 2005
20
No data received from OPIC or USIP this week
Changes driven by actions on obligations
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
09 February 2005
[5.0] Establish Good Governance, Rule of Law – Refugees, Democracy
and Human Rights
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Local Governance Programs:
• The Local Governance Program’s Policy Research Team (PRT) worked to
finalize the preparation of a concise handbook on Local Government
Associations (LGA) for local councils and civil society organizations. The LGA
handbook will be widely distributed beginning in February as part of the LGA
Toolkit. The handbook will help garner support among local councils and civil
society organizations for the establishment of a national LGA with governorate
branches or the establishment of governorate branches leading to the formation
of a national LGA.
• A local 400-member NGO in southern Iraq organized a series of seminars for
women in an effort to increase women’s participation in political, economic and
cultural activities. The seminars covered topics on economic development, the
local role of women, education of women and children, and women's rights
within new democratic systems. A $5,000 grant from the Iraq Transition
Initiative (ITI) covered the cost of facilities, materials and other logistical needs.
This project was also developed with the support of LGP.
21
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
09 February 2005
[5.0] Establish Good Governance, Rule of Law – Rule of Law
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Rule of Law:
• On January 18, the Department of State’s Bureau of International Narcotics
and Law Enforcement (INL) convened a Rule of Law Coordination meeting in
Amman. The meeting brought together international donors to:
– Share information on Rule of Law-related activities;
– Raise the need for a comprehensive, well-coordinated approach to Rule of
Law assistance in Iraq; and
– Elicit expressions of interest for those needs that are not being funded.
• Participants included representatives from Australia, Canada, Denmark, the
EU, Japan, Norway, UNAMI, UNDP, the United Kingdom, the United States
and the World Bank.
• The meeting produced a document mapping current and proposed initiatives in
the ROL sector and a clear process for further coordination between donors
(bilateral and multilateral).
22
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
09 February 2005
[6.0] Maintain Int’l Engagement & Support – Developments
D
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P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
• On January 27, the Czech Republic approved extension of their 100 MPs until
December 2005, when they will to roll over in place to a NATO role when the
NATO training mission is ready to receive them.
• Ukraine will gradually withdraw its 1,600-strong military force from Iraq and
replace it with instructors and a civilian presence, according to Foreign Minister
Borys Tarasyuk.
• Portugal will begin withdrawing its military police contingent of 120 soldiers
from Iraq this week.
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F
S
T
A
T
E
23
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
09 February 2005
[6.0] Maintain Int’l Engagement & Support – Stability Contributors
D
E
P
A
R
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M
E
N
T
27 Countries with forces in Iraq (in addition to US)
Albania
El Salvador
Latvia
Poland
Armenia
Estonia
Lithuania
Portugal
Australia
Georgia
Macedonia
Romania
Azerbaijan
Italy
Moldova
Slovakia
Bulgaria
Japan
Mongolia
Ukraine
Czech Rep
Kazakhstan
Netherlands
UK
Denmark
Korea
Norway
*Note: Fiji participating as a
part of the UN mission in Iraq
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
TOTAL ~ 25,000 Forces
28 Countries and NATO
(including US)
Support Iraqi Stability Operations
Data as of February 03, 2005
24
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
09 February 2005
Iraq Weekly Status – General Information
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A
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M
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N
T
• This brief draws from multiple sources. References are cited on the
respective pages in the “Notes Page” section (View Æ Notes Page).
• Please forward all questions and/or comments to (unclassified) NEA-IIPOG-DL@state.gov or (classified) NEA-I-IPOG-DL@state.sgov.gov
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UNCLASSIFIED