March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
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Iraq Weekly
Status Report
March 7, 2007
Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs
US Department of State
1
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
Table of Contents
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This report provides weekly updates in the eight key areas identified as pillars
of US government policy for victory in Iraq.
SECTION
SLIDE
Highlights
3
1. Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgents
5
2. Transition Iraq to Security Self-Reliance
7
3. Help Iraqis to Forge a National Compact for Democratic
9
Government
4. Help Iraq Build Government Capacity and Provide Essential
11
Services
O
F
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5. Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy
14
6. Help Iraq Strengthen the Rule of Law and Promote Civil Rights
23
7. Increase International Support for Iraq
24
8. Strengthen Public Understanding of Coalition Efforts and
27
Public Isolation of the Insurgents
Sources and Contact Information
Notes and Source Citations
28
29
2
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
Highlights
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1. Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgents
More than 550 Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) personnel with 600 Multi-National
Division-Baghdad soldiers began a clearing operation in Sadr City March 4. Local
residents were receptive and cooperative with both ISF and Coalition forces as
they worked to set secure conditions for the district.
2. Transition Iraq to Security Self-Reliance
ISF took control of Operation Fardh al-Qanun March 1 as Iraqi Army Lieutenant
General Abbud Gambar and his staff began executing their security plan from their
new command post established in Adnan Palace in the International Zone.
3. Help Iraqis to Forge a National Compact for Democratic Government
Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki offered an olive branch to Iraqi insurgents waging war
against his government, saying “We do not need to implement security measures
except against those who reject the language of reconciliation and dialogue, those
who insist on restoring the past.” He added that the new US-backed security plan
launched in Baghdad would be extended to “every inch” of Iraq.
4. Help Iraq Build Government Capacity and Provide Essential Services
The recently completed US Army-funded 400kV substation in Mosul, Ninewa
province will incorporate power from Turkey, Syria, Mosul Dam and Mosul gas
turbine generation plants and distribute it to the Iraqi National Grid.
3
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
Highlights
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5. Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy
On February 27, Minister of Finance Bayan Jabr issued an instruction that: [1]
establishes the Financial Management Information System (FMIS) as the official
accounting record for all spending units beginning in June 2007; [2] funds the installation
of FMIS at all remaining spending units; [3] requires all spending units to enter FMIS
data in a timely manner; and [4] established an FMIS steering committee.
6. Help Iraq Strengthen the Rule of Law
The Central Criminal Court of Iraq convicted ten security detainees February 18 - 22 for
various crimes, including possession of illegal weapons, possessing fake identification,
use of explosives, passport violations and illegal border crossing.
7. International Support for Iraq
On March 10, Iraq will host a sub-ministerial preparatory conference meeting in Baghdad
of Iraq’s neighbors plus Egypt, Bahrain, and the P-5, as well as one representative each
from the Arab League, the Organization of the Islamic Conference, and the UN. The
content of the Neighbors agenda includes general support for Iraq, the Iraqi people and
the Iraqi government.
8. Strengthen Public Understanding of Coalition Efforts and Public Isolation of the
Insurgents
The al-Qaida-led Islamic State in Iraq posted a video to the Internet March 3 showing the
execution of 18 interior ministry employees. The group claimed responsibility on an
Internet statement March 2 that it had kidnapped the 18 employees and threatened to kill
them to avenge the alleged rape of a Sunni woman.
4
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[1.] Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgency
ISF and CF Move into Sadr City:
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• More than 550 Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) personnel with 600 Multi-National
Division-Baghdad soldiers began a clearing operation in the eastern Baghdad
district of Sadr City March 4. Local residents were receptive and cooperative with
both ISF and Coalition Forces (CF) as they worked to set secure conditions for the
district.
• Soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division, with two Stryker companies from the
2nd Infantry Division, began their combined clearing operation in the early
morning of February 4, along with the 8th Brigade, 2nd Iraqi National Police
Division and the 3rd Battalion, 2nd Brigade, 10th Iraqi Army Division.
• CF also began establishing a Joint Security Station at an Iraqi police station,
creating the first permanent Coalition presence in the district in two years.
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5
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[1.] Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgency
Despite Progress, the New Iraq Security Plan Will Take Months to Accomplish:
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• Although there has been recent progress with the new Iraq security plan, Lieutenant
General Odierno, the commander of Multi-National Corps-Iraq, cautioned against
unrealistic expectations and urged patience, saying the new Iraqi security plan will
take months, not weeks, to accomplish.
• LTG Odierno said the key is to be able to maintain security in Baghdad over a long
period of time - from six to seven months - enabling the Iraqi government to mature.
Attacks Kill 112 Shi’ite Pilgrims in Iraq:
• According to media reports, insurgents killed 112 Shi'ite pilgrims traveling to the
holy city of Karbala in attacks across Iraq March 6. In the worst attack, two suicide
bombers strapped with explosives detonated themselves in a street lined with tents
in the city of Hillah, killing 77 people.
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UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[2.] Transition to Security Self-Reliance – Iraqi Security Forces
ISF Take Control of Baghdad Security:
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• Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) took control of Operation Fardh al-Qanun March 1, as
Iraqi Army Lieutenant General Abbud Gambar and his staff began executing their
security plan from their new command post established in Adnan Palace in the
International Zone.
ISF Conducting Joint Operations in Baghdad in Support of Fardh al-Qanun:
• The ISF has moved 18 battalions into the Baghdad area in support of Operation
Fardh al-Qanun. Although unit end-strength improved over time as more units
deployed, the Iraqi battalions did not report at full strength. Seven battalions
deployed to the area at 55 to 65% of their end-strength and another seven
deployed at 65 to 85%. The final four deployed at over 95% of their end strength,
demonstrating an improvement as Iraqi military leaders gained experience in the
process.
Specialized and Advanced Training Graduates:
• The Iraqi Police Service graduated 75 Iraqi police from specialized and advanced
courses, including Executive Leadership, Mid-Level Management, Basic Criminal
Investigations, Advanced Firearms, Forensics, and Dignitary Protective Service.
7
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[2.] Transition Iraq to Security Self-Reliance – Iraqi Security
Forces
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Ministry of Interior Forces
COMPONENT
TRAINED &
EQUIPPED
POLICE
~135,000***
NATIONAL
POLICE
~ 24,400
OTHER MOI
FORCES
~28,860
TOTAL
~188,260**
Ministry of Defense Forces
COMPONENT
OPERATIONAL
ARMY
~132,856***
AIR FORCE
~929
NAVY
~1,135
TOTAL
~134,920**
Total Trained & Equipped ISF:
~323,180****
* Ministry of Interior Forces: Unauthorized absence personnel are included in these numbers
** Ministry of Defense Forces: Unauthorized absence personnel are not included in these numbers
*** Army numbers include Special Operations Forces and Support Forces
**** Does not include the approximately 144,000 Facilities Protection Service personnel working in 27
ministries
Data as of March 5, 2007 (updated bi-weekly by DOD)
8
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[3.] Help Iraqis to Forge a National Compact for Democratic
Government– Developments
Ministry of Interior Cleans House:
D • The Ministry of Interior has fired or reassigned more than 10,000 employees,
E
including high-ranking officers, who were found to have tortured prisoners, accepted
P
bribes or had ties to militias. A ministry spokesman said that reports that an internal
A
inquiry included details of numerous human rights abuse at the ministry.
R
T
Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki Condemns “Illegal” UK Raid:
M
E • Prime Minister Maliki has criticized a raid by British forces on the Iraqi interior
ministry's intelligence office in Basrah. A British military spokesman said that the raid
N
on the National Iraqi Intelligence Agency office, where 37 people were held prisoner,
T
had uncovered evidence of torture. However, Maliki has ordered an investigation into
the raid, demanding that “those behind this illegal and irresponsible act be punished.”
O
F
Iraqi Prime Minister Bids for Peace with Sunnis:
S •
T
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Prime Minister Maliki offered an olive branch to Iraqi insurgents waging war against
his government, saying “We do not need to implement security measures except
against those who reject the language of reconciliation and dialogue, those who insist
on restoring the past.” He added that the new US-backed security plan launched in
Baghdad would be extended to “every inch” of Iraq.
9
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[3.] Help Iraqis to Forge a National Compact for Democratic
Government - Iraqi National Unity Government
President
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E
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M Agriculture
E Ya'rub Nathim
of
N Minister
Education
T Khudayyir al-Khuza’i
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Deputy President
Jalal Talabani
Deputy President
Tariq al-Hashimi
‘Adil ‘Abd al-Mahdi
Prime Minister
Deputy Prime Minister
Nuri al-Maliki
Deputy Prime Minister
Barham Salih
(F) = Female
Salam al-Zawba’i
Minister of
Communications
Minister of Culture
Minister of Defense
Minister of Displacement
& Migration
Minister of
Electricity
Muhammad Tawfiq
Allawi
As’ad Kamal
Muhammad Abdallah alHashimi
Abdul Qadir Muhammed
Jasim
Abd al-Samad Rahman
Sultan
Karim Wahid
Minister of
Environment
Minister of Finance
Minister of Foreign
Affairs
Minister of Health
Minister of Higher
Education
Narmin ‘Uthman (F)
Bayan Jabr
Hoshyar Zebari
Ali al-Shammari
Abd Dhiyab al-Ajili
Minister of Human
Rights
Minister of Industry
& Minerals
Minister of
Interior
Minister of Justice
Minister of Housing &
Construction
Minister of Labor &
Social Affairs
Wijdan Mikha’il (F)
Fawzi al-Hariri
Jawad al-Bulani
Hashim al-Shibli
Bayan Daza’I (F)
Mahmud Muhammad
Jawad al-Radi
Minister of Oil
Minister of
Planning
Minister of Trade
Minister of Science &
Technology
Minister of Municipalities
& Public Works
Minister of
Transportation
Husayn alShahristani
Ali Baban
Abd al-Falah alSudani
Ra’id Fahmi Jahid
Riyad Ghurayyib
Karim Mahdi Salih
Minister of Water
Resources
Minister of Youth &
Sports
Minister of State for
Civil Society
Minister of State for
National Dialogue Affairs
Minister of State for National
Security Affairs
‘Abd al-Latif Rashid
Jasim Muhammad Ja’far
Adil al-Asadi
Akram al-Hakim
Shirwan al-Waili
Minister of State for
Foreign Affairs
Minister of State for
Governorates Affairs
Minister of State for
Tourism and Antiquities
Minister of State for
Women’s Affairs
Rafi Hiyad al-Isawi
Sa’d Tahir Abd Khalaf
al-Hashimi
Liwa Sumaysim
Fatin Abd al-Rahman
Mahmud (F)
10
Minister of State for
CoR Affairs
Safa al-Safi
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[4.] Help Iraq Build Government Capacity and Provide Essential Services –
Financials from Iraq Relief and Reconstruction Fund (IRRF) 1 and IRRF 2
(Millions of USD)
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Committed
Apportioned
Obligated
Disbursed
Sector
Apportion
Last Week
Current
Change
Last Week
Current
Change
Last Week
Current
Change
Security and Law Enforcement
$5,002.59
$4,988.67
$4,988.67
$0.00
$4,986.20
$4,986.20
$0.00
$4,723.95
$4,722.69
($1.26)
Electricity Sector
$4,239.51
$4,224.15
$4,181.39
($42.77)
$4,081.96
$4,041.37
($40.59)
$3,090.09
$3,110.29
$20.20
Oil Infrastructure
$1,724.70
$1,677.11
$1,672.78
($4.33)
$1,583.54
$1,581.41
($2.13)
$1,344.47
$1,356.38
$11.90
Justice, Public Safety and Civil
Society
$1,304.15
$1,303.93
$1,303.93
$0.00
$1,297.72
$1,297.69
($0.03)
$1,016.49
$1,024.27
$7.78
Democracy
$1,001.85
$1,001.80
$1,001.80
$0.00
$1,001.73
$1,001.09
($0.63)
$894.93
$896.17
$1.24
Education, Refugees, Human
Rights, Governance
$401.50
$401.26
$401.26
$0.00
$401.26
$401.15
($0.11)
$355.34
$356.86
$1.52
Roads, Bridges and
Construction
$333.60
$331.94
$331.94
$0.00
$324.58
$324.54
($0.04)
$214.23
$214.23
$0.00
Health Care
$818.90
$817.58
$817.58
$0.00
$803.07
$803.13
$0.06
$632.32
$635.41
$3.08
Transportation and
Communications
$464.12
$464.09
$464.07
($0.02)
$458.29
$458.27
($0.025)
$342.59
$344.00
$1.41
$2,131.08
$2,119.79
$2,119.79
$0.00
$2,049.94
$2,049.88
($0.06)
$1,481.97
$1,485.47
$3.51
Private Sector Development
$813.95
$813.95
$813.95
$0.00
$813.95
$813.13
($0.83)
$766.99
$773.71
$6.72
Admin Expense (USAID,
STATE)
$213.00
$212.45
$212.45
$0.00
$212.45
$212.45
$0.00
$164.24
$181.71
$17.46
$18,448.95
$18,356.73
$18,309.60
($47.12)
$18,014.69
$17,970.32
($44.38)
$15,027.63
$15,101.19
$73.56
IRRF II Construction
$10,572.53
$10,529.77
($42.77)
$10,252.36
$10,213.99
($38.37)
$8,191.54
$8,222.10
$30.56
IRRF II Non-Construction
$6,782.39
$6,778.03
($4.36)
$6,760.60
$6,755.23
($5.38)
$5,941.16
$5,982.92
$41.77
IRRF II Democracy
$1,001.80
$1,001.80
$0.00
$1,001.73
$1,001.09
($0.63)
$894.93
$896.17
$1.24
Water Resources and
Sanitation
Total
IRRF I Total
$2,473.30
$2,473.30
$2,473.30
$0.00
$2,232.3
$2,232.3
$0.00
$2,139.00
$2,139.0
$0.00
Grand Total IRRF I & II
$20,922.25
$20,830.03
$20,782.90
($47.12)
$20,246.99
$20,202.62
($44.38)
$17,166.63
$17,240.19
$73.56
As of March 6, 2007
11
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[4.] Help Iraq Build Government Capacity and Provide Essential
Services – Electricity Overview
O
F
Daily Electricity Supplied and Estimated Demand in Iraq Since January 2004
Actual
7-day Average
Estimated Demand
200,000
180,000
Daily Load Served (MWh)
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
12/16/06
11/16/06
10/17/06
9/17/06
8/18/06
7/19/06
6/19/06
5/20/06
4/20/06
3/21/06
2/19/06
1/20/06
12/21/05
11/21/05
10/22/05
9/22/05
12
8/23/05
7/24/05
6/24/05
5/25/05
4/25/05
3/26/05
2/24/05
1/25/05
12/26/04
11/26/04
10/27/04
9/27/04
8/28/04
7/29/04
6/29/04
5/30/04
4/30/04
3/31/04
3/1/04
1/31/04
1/1/04
0
S
T
Date
A
T • During the week of March 1-7 electricity availability averaged 5.7 hours per day in Baghdad and 9.6
E
hours nationwide. Electricity output for the week was 14% below the same period in 2006.
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
[4.] Help Iraq Build Government Capacity and Provide Essential
Services –Electricity, Transportation and Water
Electricity:
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
•
The recently completed US Army-funded 400kV substation in Mosul, Ninewa
province will incorporate power from Turkey, Syria, Mosul Dam and Mosul gas
turbine generation plants and distribute it to the Iraqi National Grid.
Transportation:
•
The railway continues to experience difficulty with the Ministry of Transportation
(MoT) in obtaining authorization for fuel and payment. Iraqi law provides that fuel
expenses must be derived from freight revenue. The IRR and MoT were working on
an agreement with Syria to exchange revenue requirements for locomotive fuel. This
will be sufficient to protect the movement of interchange traffic between Turkey, Syria
and Iraq.
Water:
•
The Gulf Region Division recently completed the installation of the Water Compact
Unit and Distribution Network in Jurf As Sukhar, Babil province. This unit is a source
of clean, potable, and reliable water distribution to one school and approximately
1,100 homes in five local villages.
•
The recently completed US Army-funded Sen al-Thabban Water Project in Kirkuk
province now provides potable water to more than ten villages in Sen al-Thabban.
The previous source of drinking water for these villages was untreated water from the
13
UNCLASSIFIED
Zab River.
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – Oil Update and Job
Creation
D
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P
A
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M
E
N
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F
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A
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Oil Update:
• Crude oil price averages in world markets for the week ending February 16 closed with the
following prices:
– Basrah Light at $ $54.64/ barrel
– Dated Brent at $60.6888/barrel
– WTI Cushing at $61.656/barrel
– Oman/Dubai at $58.006/barrel
Employment Update:
Iraqis Last Iraqis This
Week
Week
Iraqi Employment Per Organization
`
%
change
Gulf Region District (GRD) (Includes MILCON/OMA)
22,540
22,540
0.00%
US Agency for International Development (USAID)
17,467
20,014
14.58%
Commander's Emergency Response Program (CERP)2
4,305
4,305
0.00%
Multi-National Security Transition Command-Iraq (MNSTC-I)
Iraq Reconstruction Relief Fund (IRRF) Non-Construction
11,271
6,481
12,348
6,481
9.56%
GRAND TOTAL
62,064
65,688
5.84%
0.00%
CERP employment numbers are representative of Baghdad only.
Data as of March 6
14
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy - Banking Sector
Central Bank’s US Dollar (USD) Currency Auction:
S
T
A
T
E
$90.0
1,500
$80.0
$60.0
1,400
$50.0
$40.0
1,350
$30.0
$20.0
NIDExchange Rate
1,450
$70.0
1,300
$10.0
$0.0
1,250
A
A pr
p il
r
A il 1 2 p 2 6
r
A il 1 - 1
p 6 2
r
A il 1 - 1
p 9 7
ri
l2 -2
6 3
M 3
M ay 0
M ay 2 ay 9 8
M M 21 - 1
ay ay - 6
31 24 22
- -3
Ju Jun0
Ju n
5
n 6
Ju 13- 12
n 25 20
Ju - 2
Ju l 2 9
Ju l 9 - 6
l Ju 16 13
l2 -2
Ju J 3 0
l 3ul 1 26 25
- A Au 30
u
A g g7
u 8
g
A A 1 -1
u u 1 0
g g S 30 23 22
e
S p - ep 6 S 2
e 9
S 13 - S p
ep
ep 5
2 S 1
S 1 - ep 2
ep S 1
e 9
O 26 p
2
O ct 3 - O 5
ct - c
t
O 11 O 2
ct - ct
1 O 1
N 9 - ct 0
o
N v Oc 18
o 4
v - t2
8 N 9
- o
N No No v 7
o v v
v
D 2 15 14
e 9
D c - -2
ec 6 D 8
e
D 13- D c
ec
ec 1
2 D 1
Ja 0 ec 2
Ja n 8 De 18
n - c
Ja 17 Ja 26
n - n
2 J 1
Ja 3 an 6
n -J 2
F 3 an 2
e 0
F b 6 - F 29
eb - e
F 14 Fe b 5
eb - b
F 1
F 21 eb 3
eb F 2
28 eb 0
M 27
ar
6
O
F
• The following table shows volume sold of and exchange rates for USD in the Iraqi currency auction since
April. Since September, the Central Bank has slowly appreciated the dinar, as suggested by the IMF, to
tackle the past year’s rampant inflation. This welcome increase in the dinar's value against the dollar is
reflected in the figure below.
Central Bank of Iraq
USD Currency Auction: April 2, 2006 – March 6, 2007
USDSold (Millions)
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
US $ Sold (Weekly Avg)
The New Iraqi Dinar (NID) exchange rate line is calculated as a weekly weighted average (NID/USD)
15
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – Securities Markets
Trading of Iraqi Bonds on the International Secondary Bond Market:
Iraqi Commercial Bond Sales
June 1, 2006 - March 2, 2007
10.00%
$70.00
$69.00
9.80%
$68.00
9.60%
$67.00
9.40%
$66.00
9.20%
$65.00
Yield Percentage
O
F
• The following table shows the daily bond resale price and yield on Iraqi bonds issued January 20. The bonds were originally issued to
approximately two-thirds of Iraq’s commercial creditors as part of a debt exchange arrangement as per Paris Club terms. Iraq’s commercial
debt was approximately $22 billion before the debt-swap arrangement. The bonds, which are not yet rated, will mature in 2028. The bonds’
current yield of 9.6 percent remains one of the highest in the world for sovereign debt instruments.
Bond Price in USD
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
9.00%
8.80%
$63.00
8.60%
Ju
8- n
Ju
15 n
-J
22 u n
-J
29 u n
-J
un
6Ju
13 l
-J
20 u l
-J
27 u l
-J
3- u l
Au
10 g
-A
17 ug
-A
24 ug
-A
31 ug
-A
u
7- g
Se
14 p
-S
21 ep
-S
28 ep
-S
e
5- p
Oc
12 t
-O
19 ct
-O
26 ct
-O
c
2- t
No
9- v
N
16 o v
-N
23 o v
-N
30 o v
-N
o
7- v
De
14 c
-D
21 e c
-D
28 e c
-D
e
4- c
Ja
11 n
-J
18 a n
-J
25 a n
-J
a
1- n
Fe
8- b
F
15 eb
-F
22 eb
-F
e
1- b
M
ar
$62.00
1-
S
T
A
T
E
$64.00
Trading High = $73.98 (January 24)
Trading Low = $64.66 (August 30)
16
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy –Economic Events
Conference Participants Show Enthusiasm for New Investment Law:
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
•
On March 5, Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) Hillah hosted a business
development conference for over 40 public and private sector representatives,
including the Deputy Governor of Babil and the Mayor of Hillah. Participants
generally gave positive feedback on the new National Investment Law, and were
specifically interested in how they might be involved in the implementation process.
USG participants also learned that Babil province had already formed its Provincial
Investment Commission, composed of private sector and government
representatives.
Progress of the Financial Management Information Systems (FMIS):
•
On February 27, Minister of Finance Bayan Jabr issued an instruction that: [1]
establishes FMIS as the official accounting record for all spending units beginning in
June 2007; [2] funds the installation of FMIS at all remaining spending units; [3]
requires all spending units to enter FMIS data in a timely manner; and [4]
establishes an FMIS steering committee.
17
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy –Economic Events
IMF Board Review Scheduled for March 12:
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
•
According to International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff, Iraq has met all prior actions
needed to schedule an Executive Board meeting to complete the 3rd and 4th reviews
of the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA); quarterly board reviews are required to
maintain the SBA. Prior actions for completing the reviews included re-appointing
Ernst & Young to conduct audits of 2006 fiscal accounts, the implementation of
official fuel price increases by March 5, and monetary tightening through exchange
rate appreciation and interest rate increases.
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
18
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – Crude Oil Production
2.80
2007 Iraqi Oil Ministry Goal: 2.1 MBPD
2.40
2.23
1.99
2.05
1.99
2.00
Millions of Barrels Per Day
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
1.72
2.09
2.14
2.13
February
19-25
February
26 - March
4
1.70
1.60
1.21
1.20
0.80
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
0.40
0.00
December
25-31
January 1- January 87
14
January
15-21
January
22-28
January 29 February 5- February
11
4
Production
February
12-18
Target
• Weekly Average (February 26 – March 4) of 2.13 Million Barrels Per Day (MBPD)
19
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – Crude Oil Export
Revenue (US$B)
O
F
Exports (MBPD)
2.40
$4.00
$3.50
1.67
1.68
1.68
1.60
1.70
1.55
1.51
1.44
1.50
1.45
$2.50
1.30
1.20
$2.00
$3.41
$3.02
$2.92
$3.44
$2.67
$3.03
$1.50
$2.73
$2.46
$2.45
$2.19
$2.11
0.60
S
T
A
T
E
$3.00
1.62
USD (Billions)
1.80
Millions of Barrels per Day
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
Projected
$1.00
$1.89
$0.50
$0.18
0.00
$0.00
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
• 2006 Revenue Estimate:
$31.3 Billion
• 2007 Revenue Estimate:
$4.2 Billion
20
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
(Year to Date)
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – Total Critical Refined Product
Supplies
Domestic Production
O
F
100%
15%
22%
33%
80%
46%
Percentage of Share of Weekly Fuel Supplies
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
Import
60%
85%
40%
78%
67%
54%
20%
S
T
A
T
E
0%
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
LPG
Note: This is a daily average for the week of February 26 – March 4
• Diesel: 10.9 ML supply of 21.0 ML target
• Kerosene: 4.4 ML supply of 15.5 ML target
• Gasoline: 12.1 ML supply of 22.1 ML target
• LPG: 2,976 tons supply of 5,500 tons target
21
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – National Stock Levels
Jan-07
Mar-07
Goal
25
20
15
Days
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
Feb-07
10
O
F
5
S
T
A
T
E
5
5
5
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
0
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
LPG
• The goal is to have on hand 15 days supply of all refined products, calculated on
the basis of maximum consumption over the year and not adjusted for seasonal
variation. The numbers given above are monthly averages.
22
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[6.] Help Iraq Strengthen the Rule of Law and Promote Civil Rights–
Iraqi Judicial System
CCCI Convicts 10 Insurgents:
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
• The Central Criminal Court of Iraq (CCCI) convicted ten security detainees February
18 - 22 for various crimes, including possession of illegal weapons, possessing fake
identification, use of explosives, passport violations and illegal border crossing.
• The trial court found an Iraqi man guilty of illegal possession of special category
weapons in violation of Order 3/2003 Section 6, Paragraph 2B. On January 19,
2005, Multi-National Forces (MNF) conducted a raid on several houses in Taji in
search of the defendant and several other individuals. Once inside, MNF found one
RPK machine gun, one AK-47, a pistol, one G3 assault rifle, Iraqi and CIA
intelligence manuals and documents, as well as fake identification documents and
photographs. MNF then searched outside the house using metal detectors and
found more buried weapons and ammunition. Some of the ammunition was found
in American ammunition boxes with serial numbers that matched the serial numbers
of ammunition boxes taken from Humvees which had recently been destroyed by
improvised explosive devices in which two American soldiers died. On February 18,
the trial panel found the defendant guilty and sentenced him to 30 years
imprisonment.
23
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[7.] Increase International Support for Iraq – Developments
Iraq Neighbor Conference:
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
•
On March 10, Iraq will host a sub-ministerial preparatory conference meeting in
Baghdad of Iraq’s neighbors plus Egypt, Bahrain, and the P-5, as well as one
representative each from the Arab League, the Organization of the Islamic Conference,
and the UN. The content of the Neighbors agenda includes general support for Iraq, the
Iraqi people and the Iraqi government.
Latvia Plans to Decrease Troop Commitment in Iraq:
•
The Latvian government announced it will withdraw the majority of their 115-man
contingent, leaving 15 troops to assist in training operations for the Iraqi Army.
Republic of Georgia to Increase Iraq Presence:
•
Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili announced his country will enlarge its
participation in the Coalition forces in Iraq during a speech at the construction site of a
new NATO-standard military base near the Georgian town of Gori March 4, stating that
Georgia “is ready to help American and Iraqi colleagues at the critical phase of the
peacekeeping operation.”
UN Warns of Impending Refugee Crisis:
•
The UN warned that if sectarian violence in Iraq does not decrease, up to one million
new people could become displaced in 2007. Of Iraq's population of about 27 million,
1.8 million have already been displaced within the country and another one million have
gone to Syria, 750,000 to Jordan and 150,000 to Egypt.
24
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[7.] Increase International Support for Iraq – Developments
Iraq’s UN Ambassador Says Syria Can Help Prevent Terrorists from Crossing Border:
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
•
Iraq's UN Ambassador, Hamid al-Bayati, said that Syria could do more to prevent
terrorists from crossing their border into Iraq and that the Syrian government could
play an important role in improving the security of Iraq by taking control of
monitoring its border.
Government of Singapore to Train Iraqi Diplomats:
•
At the request of the Iraqi government, and as part of Singapore’s effort to
assist in the reconstruction of Iraq, the Singapore Ministry of Foreign Affairs will
be organizing a three-week training program for a group of Iraqi diplomats March
6-23. The program comprises English language training and the work of foreign
service officers.
S
T
A
T
E
25
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[7.] Increase International Support for Iraq – Contributors to Iraqi
Stability Operations
Data as of March 5, 2007
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
25 Countries with forces in Iraq (in addition to US)
Albania
Denmark
Lithuania
Slovakia
Armenia
El Salvador
Macedonia
South Korea
Australia
Estonia
Moldova
Ukraine
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Mongolia
UK
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Japan
Poland
Bulgaria
Kazakhstan
Romania
Czech Republic
Latvia
Singapore
TOTAL ~ 14,035 Forces
*Note: Fiji participating as a
part of the UN mission in Iraq.
34 Countries and NATO*
(including US)
Support Iraqi Stability Operations
*34 includes the 25 countries listed above, the US, Fiji, and seven NATO, non-MNF-I countries: Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Netherlands,
Portugal, Slovenia, Turkey
26
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[8.] Strengthen Public Understanding of Coalition Efforts and Public
Isolation of the Insurgents – Developments
Al-Qaida Group Shows Video of the Execution of MoI Employees:
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
• The al-Qaida-led Islamic State in Iraq posted a video to the Internet March 3
showing the execution of 18 Ministry of Interior (MoI) employees. The group
claimed responsibility on an Internet statement March 2 that it had kidnapped the 18
employees and threatened to kill them to avenge the alleged rape of a Sunni
woman. The statement gave the government 24 hours to accede to its demands,
which included turning over the officers that allegedly participated in the rape and
that all Sunnis held in interior ministry prisons be released.
Iraqi Newspaper Editor Killed:
• The secretary-general of the Iraqi Journalists Union announced that gunmen had
shot dead Mohan al-Dhahr, editor of the al-Mashriq newspaper, in front of his
Baghdad home March 4.
• The death of Dhahr brings the total number of journalists killed in Iraq since the
beginning of the US-led invasion in 2003 to 190.
27
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
Iraq Weekly Status – General Information
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
• This brief draws from multiple sources. References are cited on the
following pages.
• Please forward all questions and/or comments to:
NEA-I-IPOG-DL@state.gov
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
28
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
Notes and Source Citations (1 of 3)
Slide 5:
D
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T
M
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N
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O
F
–
MNF-I Press Release – 6 March 2007 – (http://www.mnf-iraq.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10409&Itemid=128)
Slide 6:
–
–
MNF-I Press Release – 6 March 2007 – (http://www.mnf-iraq.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10408&Itemid=128).
Yahoo News – Habib al-Zubaidi -- 6 March 2007 – (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070306/us_nm/iraq_soldiers_dc).
Slide 7:
–
–
–
MNSTC-I – The Advisor – 3 March 2007
MNF-I Press Release – 6 March 2007 – (http://www.mnf-iraq.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10408&Itemid=128).
ICITAP Weekly Report – Police Training Update – 24 February 2007
Slide 8:
–
DoD Input to Iraq Weekly Status Report March 7, 2007
Slide 9:
–
USA Today, http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2007-03-04-security-ministry_N.htm
–
http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=284871&selected=Analyses
–
http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/world.aspx?ID=BD4A402738
Slide 10:
–
NEA Political Section, NEA-I-POL-DL@state.gov
Slide 11:
S
T
A
T
E
–
IRMO Weekly Report, March 6, 2007
Slide 12:
–
POC Bob Means (202) 647-9815
–
The chart shows average daily power production in megawatt hours (MWh). 120,000 MWh goal equates to 20 hours at 6000 MW average supplied load or 24 hours at 5000 MW
average supply load. Currently supplies are not much improved over last year when judged by hours of power, but this is due in part to an influx of new appliances. This has
dramatically altered demand and diluted the effect of increased generation capacity on actual results.
29
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
Notes and Source Citations (2 of 3)
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
Slide 13:
Electricity:
– USACE Daily Report – 6 March 07
Transportation:
– IRMO Weekly Status Report – 27 February 07
Water
– USACE Daily Report – 6 March 07
– USACE Daily Report – 5 March 07
Slide 14:
– Oil Prices are sourced from Bloomberg
Employment Update:
– Information regarding the Employment Update was sourced from the IRMO Weekly Report – March 6, 2007.
– CERP has not reported figures for some time. Until they report accurate data, the number will remain at 0.
– PCO will be reporting on a bi-weekly basis.
Slide 15:
– Information regarding the NID auction was gathered from the Central Bank of Iraq’s website: http://www.cbiraq.org
Slide 16:
– Iraqi Bond Prices are sourced from Bloomberg
Slide 17:
– Baghdad OI March 5
– Unclassified IIC February 28
Slide 18:
– NEA-I-Econ IIC March 6
Slide 19:
– Department of State, NEA-I-ECON, 202-647-9885
Slide 20:
– Department of State, NEA-I-ECON, 202-647-9885
30
UNCLASSIFIED
March 7, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
Notes and Source Citations (3 of 3)
Slide 21:
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
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E
–
Department of State, NEA-I-ECON, 202-647-9885
–
Department of State, NEA-I-ECON, 202-647-9885
–
http://www.mnf-iraq.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10273&Itemid=21
–
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/08/AR2007030800838.html
–
http://www.upi.com/SecurityTerrorism/view.php?StoryID=20061102-083250-7837
–
http://www.civil.ge/eng/detail.php?id=14720
–
MFA Press Statement: Training Programme for Iraqi Foreign Service Officers, Singapore, 6-23 March 2007
–
Associated Press March 2, 2007, Iraq's U.N. ambassador criticizes Syria available at:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070302/ap_on_re_mi_ea/us_iraq_syria;_ylt=Aqtg2wcIai1q3QTjX2MfbMxvaA8F
–
DOD Input to Weekly Status Report, updated bi-weekly
–
Associated Press, Islamist State of Iraq Posts Video of Execution of 18 Iraqi Security Troops,” March 3/AFP, “Iraq Rebels Claim Kidnap of 18 Ministry
Employees,” March 2
–
AFP, “Iraqi Newspaper Editor Killed in Baghdad,” March 4
Slide 22:
Slide 23:
Slide 24:
Slide 25:
Slide 26:
Slide 27:
31
UNCLASSIFIED