March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
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Iraq Weekly
Status Report
March 14, 2007
Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs
US Department of State
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UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
Table of Contents
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This report provides weekly updates in the eight key areas identified as pillars
of US government policy for victory in Iraq.
SECTION
SLIDE
Highlights
3
1. Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgents
5
2. Transition Iraq to Security Self-Reliance
7
3. Help Iraqis to Forge a National Compact for Democratic
9
Government
4. Help Iraq Build Government Capacity and Provide Essential
11
Services
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5. Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy
14
6. Help Iraq Strengthen the Rule of Law and Promote Civil Rights
23
7. Increase International Support for Iraq
24
8. Strengthen Public Understanding of Coalition Efforts and
26
Public Isolation of the Insurgents
Sources and Contact Information
Notes and Source Citations
27
28
2
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
Highlights
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1. Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgents
Multi-National Force-Iraq Commander General David H. Petraeus said March 8
that the new security strategy focused on population security can work but will take
time to be fully implemented. General Petraeus said that Iraqi and Coalition forces
working together have established about 40 joint Iraqi-U.S. security posts across
Baghdad as part of the three-week-old Operation Enforcing the Law.
2. Transition Iraq to Security Self-Reliance
Three of the four Iraqi army divisions in the north are now under the control of the
Iraqi Ground Forces Command, and U.S. troops are turning over more
counterinsurgency operations to those units, according to Major General Benjamin
Mixon, the top US commander in Multi-National Division–North (MND-N).
3. Help Iraqis to Forge a National Compact for Democratic Government
Iraq's Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, hoping to show those outside the capital that
the government is working to control violence everywhere, traveled to the Sunni
insurgent stronghold of Ramadi on March 13 to meet with tribal leaders and the
provincial governor.
4. Help Iraq Build Government Capacity and Provide Essential Services
The completed installation of the US Army-funded PW-090 Water Compact Unit in
Ad Duluyah, Salah ad Din Province now provides fresh, potable water to 12,000
local residents.
3
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
Highlights
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5. Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved the third
and fourth reviews of Iraq's Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). The Board commended
the GOI’s commitment to maintaining policies agreed to in the SBA, but expressed
concern over the security situation’s impact on, inter alia, GOI responsiveness and
under-execution of the investment budget.
6. Help Iraq Strengthen the Rule of Law
The Central Criminal Court of Iraq convicted 18 security detainees from February
25 to March 1, for various crimes including joining an armed group to unsettle the
stability and security of Iraq, possession of illegal weapons, personal identification
violations and an illegal border crossing violation.
7. International Support for Iraq
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On March 11 the Government of Iraq hosted a Neighbors conference in Baghdad
attended by 69 delegates representing 13 countries such as, the United States,
Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, and Turkey, and Representatives of the
Arab League, the Islamic Conference, the United Nations as well as the four other
permanent members of the UN Security Council the United Kingdom, Russia,
China, and France.
8. Strengthen Public Understanding of Coalition Efforts and Public Isolation of
the Insurgents
In a March 6 press conference President Bush outlined the importance of
international cooperation on Iraq.
4
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[1.] Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgency
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MNF-I Commander Says Security Plan Can Work But Will Take Time:
• Multi-National Force-Iraq Commander General David H. Petraeus said March 8 that
the new security strategy that puts Iraqi and Coalition forces inside Baghdad
neighborhoods to safeguard residents against insurgent and sectarian violence can
work, but will take time to be fully implemented.
• General Petraeus noted that population security is an important component of
counter-insurgency operational doctrine, but that the current operation “will take
months, not days or weeks, to fully implement,” and that it “will have to be sustained
to achieve its desired effect.”
• General Petraeus also stated that Iraqi and Coalition forces will not just clear
neighborhoods, but they will also hold them to facilitate the ‘build’ phase of the
operation and help Baghdad’s residents realize aspirations beyond survival. As part
of this plan the Iraqi government has budgeted billions of dollars for infrastructure
improvements and capital investment.
• Iraqi and Coalition forces working together have established about 40 joint IraqiU.S. security posts across Baghdad as part of the three-week-old Fardh Al-Qanoon,
or Operation Enforcing the Law. In the first few weeks of the operation, sectarian
killings have been lower in Baghdad compared to the previous month, and small
numbers of residents are returning to homes they abandoned to escape the
violence.
5
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[2.] Transition to Security Self-Reliance – Iraqi Security Forces
Iraqi Forces Control Much of Northern Iraq:
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• Three of the four Iraqi army divisions in the north are now under the control of the
Iraqi Ground Forces Command, and U.S. troops are turning over more
counterinsurgency operations to those units, according to Major General Benjamin
Mixon, the top US commander in Multi-National Division–North (MND-N). The final
division should fall under Iraqi command and control by this summer.
• Iraqi units in the region are manned at about 85 percent but have significant
equipment shortages. To help train these forces, MND-N has added nearly 400
U.S. soldiers to their military transition teams and added 33 police transition teams.
However, greater efforts are needed to improve the border security forces and the
strategic infrastructure battalions that secure critical oil refining and delivery
infrastructure.
• There is encouraging progress in the northern provinces of Nineveh, Kirkuk and
Salahuddin, but sectarian violence still plagues Diyala, causing MND-N to move
more forces into the province and increase offensive operations to unbalance
insurgents and prevent them from reinforcing Baghdad. In the past two months,
coalition forces have seen a 30 percent increase in offensive actions and attacks in
Diyala and have killed more than 175 enemy forces there.
6
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[2.] Transition to Security Self-Reliance – Iraqi Security Forces
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More Than 60 Recruits Join the Iraqi Police in Anbar:
• In the town of Barwanah, an area where virtually no Iraqi Police existed before,
more than 60 recruits volunteered to join the Iraqi Police last week. The recruits
were encouraged by local tribal shaykhs and constituted the largest number of IP
volunteers ever recruited from the town of about 20,000 citizens in Anbar Province.
Iraqi Air Force Receives Huey II Helicopters:
• The Kingdom of Jordan recently donated sixteen helicopters to the Iraqi
government. The aircraft are all receiving Huey II upgrades, which include all new
engines, wiring, avionics, and other special features. The Iraqi Air Force received
the initial delivery of five aircraft and is scheduled to receive the additional eleven by
July.
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UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[2.] Transition Iraq to Security Self-Reliance – Iraqi Security
Forces
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Ministry of Interior Forces
COMPONENT
TRAINED &
EQUIPPED
POLICE
~135,000
NATIONAL
POLICE
~ 25,400
OTHER MOI
FORCES
~32,900
TOTAL
~193,300**
Ministry of Defense Forces
COMPONENT
OPERATIONAL
ARMY
~134,400***
AIR FORCE
~900
NAVY
~1,100
TOTAL
~136,400**
Total Trained & Equipped ISF:
~329,700****
* Ministry of Interior Forces: Unauthorized absence personnel are included in these numbers
** Ministry of Defense Forces: Unauthorized absence personnel are not included in these numbers
*** Army numbers include Special Operations Forces and Support Forces
**** Does not include the approximately 144,000 Facilities Protection Service personnel working in 27
ministries
Data as of March 5, 2007 (updated bi-weekly by DOD)
8
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[3.] Help Iraqis to Forge a National Compact for Democratic
Government – Developments
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Iraqi Prime Minister Visits Ramadi:
• Iraq's Shiite prime minister, hoping to show those outside the capital that the
government is working to control violence everywhere, traveled to the Sunni
insurgent stronghold of Ramadi on March 13 to meet with tribal leaders and the
provincial governor.
Sunni and Shia Leaders Form National-Salvation Front:
• Former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi is leading a new push to create a “National
Salvation Front,” which his supporters say would be able to secure the backing of
Iraqi insurgents, reunite the country and end the sectarian conflict that has
prevailed for more than a year.
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UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[3.] Help Iraqis to Forge a National Compact for Democratic
Government - Iraqi National Unity Government
President
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T Minister of
M Agriculture
E Ya'rub Nathim
of
N Minister
Education
T Khudayyir al-Khuza’i
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Deputy President
Jalal Talabani
Deputy President
Tariq al-Hashimi
‘Adil ‘Abd al-Mahdi
Prime Minister
Deputy Prime Minister
Nuri al-Maliki
Deputy Prime Minister
Barham Salih
(F) = Female
Salam al-Zawba’i
Minister of
Communications
Minister of Culture
Minister of Defense
Minister of Displacement
& Migration
Minister of
Electricity
Muhammad Tawfiq
Allawi
As’ad Kamal
Muhammad Abdallah alHashimi
Abdul Qadir Muhammed
Jasim
Abd al-Samad Rahman
Sultan
Karim Wahid
Minister of
Environment
Minister of Finance
Minister of Foreign
Affairs
Minister of Health
Minister of Higher
Education
Narmin ‘Uthman (F)
Bayan Jabr
Hoshyar Zebari
Ali al-Shammari
Abd Dhiyab al-Ajili
Minister of Human
Rights
Minister of Industry
& Minerals
Minister of
Interior
Minister of Justice
Minister of Housing &
Construction
Minister of Labor &
Social Affairs
Wijdan Mikha’il (F)
Fawzi al-Hariri
Jawad al-Bulani
Hashim al-Shibli
Bayan Daza’I (F)
Mahmud Muhammad
Jawad al-Radi
Minister of Oil
Minister of
Planning
Minister of Trade
Minister of Science &
Technology
Minister of Municipalities
& Public Works
Minister of
Transportation
Husayn alShahristani
Ali Baban
Abd al-Falah alSudani
Ra’id Fahmi Jahid
Riyad Ghurayyib
Karim Mahdi Salih
Minister of Water
Resources
Minister of Youth &
Sports
Minister of State for
Civil Society
Minister of State for
National Dialogue Affairs
Minister of State for National
Security Affairs
‘Abd al-Latif Rashid
Jasim Muhammad Ja’far
Adil al-Asadi
Akram al-Hakim
Shirwan al-Waili
Minister of State for
Foreign Affairs
Minister of State for
Governorates Affairs
Minister of State for
Tourism and Antiquities
Minister of State for
Women’s Affairs
Rafi Hiyad al-Isawi
Sa’d Tahir Abd Khalaf
al-Hashimi
Liwa Sumaysim
Fatin Abd al-Rahman
Mahmud (F)
10
Minister of State for
CoR Affairs
Safa al-Safi
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[4.] Help Iraq Build Government Capacity and Provide Essential Services –
Financials from Iraq Relief and Reconstruction Fund (IRRF) 1 and IRRF 2
(Millions of USD)
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Committed
Apportioned
Obligated
Disbursed
Sector
Apportion
Last Week
Current
Change
Last Week
Current
Change
Last Week
Current
Change
Security and Law Enforcement
$5,002.59
$4,988.67
$4,988.67
$0.00
$4,986.20
$4,986.20
$0.00
$4,723.45
$4,726.87
$3.42
Electricity Sector
$4,239.51
$4,172.88
$4,173.01
$0.14
$4,034.04
$4,034.17
$0.14
$3,122.68
$3,122.71
$0.03
Oil Infrastructure
$1,724.70
$1,672.76
$1,672.76
$0.00
$1,582.78
$1,582.78
$0.00
$1,369.28
$1,369.28
$0.00
Justice, Public Safety and Civil
Society
$1,304.15
$1,303.87
$1,303.90
$0.03
$1,297.66
$1,297.69
$0.03
$1,025.06
$1,029.34
$4.28
Democracy
$1,001.85
$998.59
$999.23
$0.63
$998.51
$999.15
$0.63
$896.25
$913.89
$17.64
Education, Refugees, Human
Rights, Governance
$401.50
$401.15
$401.26
$0.11
$401.15
$401.26
$0.11
$357.23
$357.79
$0.56
Roads, Bridges and
Construction
$333.60
$331.90
$331.94
$0.04
$324.54
$324.58
$0.04
$214.45
$214.45
$0.00
Health Care
$818.90
$814.48
$814.52
$0.03
$800.24
$800.27
$0.03
$635.62
$635.94
$0.32
Transportation and
Communications
$464.12
$456.67
$456.67
$0.00
$450.87
$450.87
$0.00
$344.93
$344.93
$0.00
$2,131.08
$2,112.63
$2,112.68
$0.06
$2,042.78
$2,042.83
$0.06
$1,503.52
$1,503.52
$0.00
Private Sector Development
$813.95
$813.13
$809.25
($3.87)
$813.13
$809.25
($3.87)
$773.80
$783.32
$9.52
Admin Expense (USAID,
STATE)
$213.00
$212.45
$210.59
($1.86)
$212.45
$210.59
($1.86)
$185.67
$185.02
($0.65)
$18,448.95
$18,279.17
$18,274.47
($4.70)
$17,944.34
$17,939.65
($4.70)
$15,151.94
$15,187.06
$35.13
IRRF II Construction
$10,503.63
$10,503.82
$0.19
$10,190.62
$10,190.82
$0.19
$8,245.59
$8,245.62
$0.03
IRRF II Non-Construction
$6,776.95
$6,771.43
($5.52)
$6,755.21
$6,749.68
($5.52)
$6,010.11
$6,027.56
$17.45
$998.59
$999.23
$0.63
$998.51
$999.15
$0.63
$896.25
$913.89
$17.64
Water Resources and
Sanitation
Total
IRRF II Democracy
IRRF I Total
$2,473.30
$2,473.30
$2,473.30
$0.00
$2,232.3
$2,232.3
$0.00
$2,139.00
$2,139.0
$0.00
Grand Total IRRF I & II
$20,922.25
$20,752.47
$20,747.77
($4.70)
$20,176.64
$20,171.95
($4.70)
$17,290.94
$17,326.06
$35.13
As of March 13, 2007
11
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[4.] Help Iraq Build Government Capacity and Provide Essential
Services – Electricity Overview
Actual
7-day Average
Estimated Demand
200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
12/16/06
11/16/06
10/17/06
9/17/06
8/18/06
7/19/06
6/19/06
5/20/06
4/20/06
3/21/06
2/19/06
1/20/06
12/21/05
11/21/05
10/22/05
9/22/05
Date
8/23/05
7/24/05
6/24/05
5/25/05
4/25/05
3/26/05
2/24/05
1/25/05
12/26/04
11/26/04
10/27/04
9/27/04
8/28/04
7/29/04
6/29/04
5/30/04
4/30/04
3/31/04
3/1/04
1/31/04
1/1/04
O
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Daily Electricity Supplied and Estimated Demand in Iraq Since January 2004
Daily Load Served (MWh)
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T • During the week of March 8-14 electricity availability averaged 5.6 hours per day in Baghdad and
E
10.0 hours nationwide. Electricity output for the week was 12% below the same period in 2006.
12
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[4.] Help Iraq Build Government Capacity and Provide Essential
Services – Health and Water
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Health:
•
The completed US-Army funded power project (installation of concrete pads
and a 1MW diesel generator) at the EG/Women's-Children's Hospital in
Ramadi, Al Anbar Province now provides sufficient power on site to operate
the hospital at 100% capacity.
Water:
•
The completed installation of the US Army-funded PW-090 Water Compact
Unit in Ad Duluyah, Salah ad Din Province now provides fresh, potable
water to 12,000 local residents.
•
The US Army-funded repair & installation of PW-99 wells in seven villages
of Erbil Province is complete and now provides fresh, quality drinking water
to about 3,500 residents.
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UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – Oil Update and Job
Creation
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Oil Update:
• Crude oil price averages in world markets for the week ending March 9 closed with the
following prices:
– Dated Brent at $61.13/barrel
– WTI Cushing at $57.93/barrel
Employment Update:
Iraqis Last Iraqis This
Week
Week
Iraqi Employment Per Organization
`
%
change
O
F
Gulf Region District (GRD) (Includes MILCON/OMA)
22,240
22,540
1.35%
US Agency for International Development (USAID)
20,014
20,219
1.02%
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T
A
T
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Commander's Emergency Response Program (CERP)
4,305
4,305
0.00%
Multi-National Security Transition Command-Iraq (MNSTC-I)
Iraq Reconstruction Relief Fund (IRRF) Non-Construction
12,441
6,481
12,592
6,481
1.21%
GRAND TOTAL
65,481
66,137
1.00%
2
0.00%
CERP employment numbers are representative of Baghdad only.
Data as of March 13
14
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy - Banking Sector
Central Bank’s US Dollar (USD) Currency Auction:
S
T
A
T
E
1,500
$90.0
$80.0
$60.0
1,400
$50.0
$40.0
1,350
$30.0
$20.0
NIDExchange Rate
1,450
$70.0
1,300
$10.0
$0.0
1,250
A
A pr
p il
r
A il 1 2 p 2 6
r
A il 1 - 1
p 6 2
A ril - 1
p 19 7
ri
l2 6 2
M - 3
3
a
M y 0
M ay 2 ay 9 8
M M 2 -1
ay ay 1 6
31 24 22
- -3
Ju Jun 0
Ju n
5
n 6
Ju 1 - 1
n 3- 2
25 2
0
Ju - 2
Ju l 2 9
Ju l 9 - 6
l Ju 16 13
l Ju J 23 20
l 3ul 1 26 25
- A Au 30
u
A g g7
u 8
g
A A 1 -1
u u 1 0
g g S 3 2 2
e
S p 0- 3- 2
ep 6 S 2
S 13 - S ep 9
ep
e 5
21 - S p 1
e
2
S
ep - S p 1
9
e
O 26 p
O ct 3 - O 25
ct - c
O 11 O t 2
ct - ct
1 O 1
N 9 - ct 0
N ov Oc 18
o 4
v - t2
8 N 9
- o
N No No v 7
o v v
v
D 2 15 14
D ec 9 - ec 6 D 28
D 13- D ec
ec
- e 1
2 Dc
Ja 0 ec 12
Ja n - D 1
n 8 ec 8
Ja 17- J 2
n - an 6
2 J
Ja 3 an 16
n -J 2
F 3 an 2
e 0
F b 6 - F 29
eb
- e
F 14 Fe b 5
eb - b
F 1
F 21 eb 3
eb F 2
M 28 eb 0
ar M 2
7- a 7
M r6
ar
13
O
F
• The following table shows volume sold of and exchange rates for USD in the Iraqi currency auction since
April. Since September, the Central Bank has slowly appreciated the dinar, as suggested by the IMF, to
tackle the past year’s rampant inflation. This welcome increase in the dinar's value against the dollar is
reflected in the figure below.
Central Bank of Iraq
USD Currency Auction: April 2, 2006 – March 13, 2007
USDSold (Millions)
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
US $ Sold (Weekly Avg)
The New Iraqi Dinar (NID) exchange rate line is calculated as a weekly weighted average (NID/USD)
15
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – Securities Markets
Trading of Iraqi Bonds on the International Secondary Bond Market:
Iraqi Commercial Bond Sales
June 1, 2006 - March 9, 2007
$70.00
10.00%
$69.00
9.80%
$68.00
9.60%
$67.00
9.40%
$66.00
9.20%
$65.00
Yield Percentage
O
F
• The following table shows the daily bond resale price and yield on Iraqi bonds issued January 20. The bonds were originally issued to
approximately two-thirds of Iraq’s commercial creditors as part of a debt exchange arrangement as per Paris Club terms. Iraq’s commercial
debt was approximately $22 billion before the debt-swap arrangement. The bonds, which are not yet rated, will mature in 2028. The bonds’
current yield of 9.6 percent remains one of the highest in the world for sovereign debt instruments.
Bond Price in USD
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
9.00%
8.80%
$63.00
8-Mar
1-Mar
22-Feb
15-Feb
8-Feb
1-Feb
25-Jan
18-Jan
11-Jan
4-Jan
28-Dec
21-Dec
14-Dec
7-Dec
30-Nov
23-Nov
9-Nov
16-Nov
2-Nov
26-Oct
19-Oct
12-Oct
5-Oct
28-Sep
21-Sep
7-Sep
14-Sep
31-Aug
24-Aug
17-Aug
3-Aug
10-Aug
27-Jul
20-Jul
6-Jul
13-Jul
29-Jun
22-Jun
15-Jun
8.60%
8-Jun
$62.00
1-Jun
S
T
A
T
E
$64.00
Trading High = $73.98 (January 24)
Trading Low = $64.66 (August 30)
16
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy –Economic Events
USAID Tatweer Project to assist Ministry of Oil in Project Management:
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
•
On February 28 Lewis Tatem, Director for USAID-Iraq Capacity Development;
Ambassador Joseph Ghougassian, Tatweer Chief of Party; and Faisl Nasr,
Tatweer Public Management Advisor to the Ministry of Oil, met with the Iraqi
Minister of Oil, Dr. Husayn al-Shahrastani, to discuss USAID’s capacity
development Program, Tatweer. Dr. Shahrastani responded positively to the
Tatweer Program, expressing the Ministry’s need for assistance with systems
improvements and organizational reform. He welcomed the idea of USAID
providing assistance in the form of a Project Management Unit and expressed
the need for USAID to also work with the some of the operating companies.
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
17
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy –Economic Events
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
IMF Executive Board Approves Third and Fourth Reviews of Iraq’s (SBA) with
concerns, and Six Month Extension:
•
On March 13, IMF Board Directors commended the GOI’s commitment to
maintaining policies agreed to in the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) despite the
adverse security environment, particularly the benchmark fuel price hikes and
reserves growth ($18 billion). The Board expressed unease, however, over the
security situation’s impact on, inter alia, GOI responsiveness to IMF procedures,
under-execution of the investment budget, and inflation, which is complicated by the
lack of effective monetary tools and increased dollarization.
New Unemployment Figures from COSIT:
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
•
The GoI’s Central Organization for Statistics and Information Technology (COSIT)
annual unemployment survey (carried out each November) revealed that about 18%
of Iraqis are unemployed and about 38% are underemployed. These numbers apply
only to that part of Iraq outside the Iraqi Kurdistan region, as COSIT does not collect
unemployment data in that region.
18
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – Crude Oil Production
2.40
2007 Iraqi Oil Ministry Goal: 2.1 MBPD
1.99
1.99
2.00
1.72
Millions of Barrels Per Day
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
2.09
2.05
2.14
2.13
2.14
1.70
1.60
1.21
1.20
0.80
O
F
0.40
S
T
A
T
E
0.00
January 1- January 87
14
January
15-21
January
22-28
January 29 February 5- February
11
4
Production
February
12-18
February
19-25
February March 5-11
26 - March
4
Target
• Weekly Average (March 5 – March 11) of 2.14 Million Barrels Per Day (MBPD)
19
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – Crude Oil Export
Revenue (US$B)
O
F
Exports (MBPD)
2.40
$4.00
$3.50
1.67
1.68
1.68
1.60
1.70
1.55
1.51
1.44
1.50
1.45
$2.50
1.30
1.20
$2.00
$2.04
$3.41
$3.02
$2.92
$3.44
$3.03
$1.50
$2.73
$2.46
$2.45
$2.19
$2.11
0.60
S
T
A
T
E
$3.00
1.62
USD (Billions)
1.80
Millions of Barrels per Day
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
Projected
$1.00
$1.89
$0.84
0.00
$0.50
$0.00
Apr-06
May-06
Jun-06
Jul-06
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
• 2006 Revenue Estimate:
$31.3 Billion
• 2007 Revenue Estimate:
$4.8 Billion
20
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
(Year to Date)
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – Total Critical Refined Product
Supplies
Domestic Production
O
F
100%
7%
12%
23%
36%
80%
Percentage of Share of Weekly Fuel Supplies
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
Import
60%
93%
88%
40%
77%
64%
20%
S
T
A
T
E
0%
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
LPG
Note: This is a daily average for the week of March 5 – March 11
• Diesel: 6.7 ML supply of 22.6 ML target
• Kerosene: 3.9 ML supply of 10.1 ML target
• Gasoline: 8.2 ML supply of 22.0 ML target
• LPG: 2,371 tons supply of 5,000 tons target
21
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – National Stock Levels
Jan-07
Mar-07
Goal
25
20
15
Days
D
E
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A
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T
M
E
N
T
Feb-07
10
O
F
5
5
S
T
A
T
E
5
5
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
0
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
LPG
• The goal is to have on hand 15 days supply of all refined products, calculated on
the basis of maximum consumption over the year and not adjusted for seasonal
variation. The numbers given above are monthly averages.
22
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[6.] Help Iraq Strengthen the Rule of Law and Promote Civil Rights–
Iraqi Judicial System
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
CCCI Convicts 18 Insurgents:
• The Central Criminal Court of Iraq convicted 18 security detainees from
February 25 to March 1 for various crimes including joining an armed group to
unsettle the stability and security of Iraq, possession of illegal weapons,
personal identification violations and an illegal border crossing violation.
The trial court sentenced two Iraqis to life imprisonment after finding them guilty
of violation of Article 4/1 of Iraq’s Terrorist Law. The convicted Iraqis were
captured during a Multi-National Forces targeted raid to capture known AlQaeda members Novvember 11, 2006. According to the trial summary, the
men were known members of a terrorist cell that conducted at least six
improvised explosive attacks against Iraqi Forces. The documents said one of
the convicted men admitted to planting two IEDs against Multi-National Forces
with the other convicted man.
• Since its reorganization, under an amendment to CPA order 11, in April 2004,
the Central Criminal Court has held 1,922 trials for Coalition-apprehended
insurgents. The proceedings have resulted in the conviction of 1,658
individuals with sentences ranging from imprisonment to death.
23
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[7.] Increase International Support for Iraq – Developments
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
Iraq Concludes Successful Neighbors Conference:
• The Iraq Neighbors conference was held in Baghdad March 11 and was attended
by 69 delegates representing 13 countries, including the US, Iran, Syria, Saudi
Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, Turkey, Representatives of the Arab League, the Islamic
Conference, the UN, as well as the four other permanent members of the UN
Security Council (the UK, Russia, China, and France).
UN will Host International Compact with Iraq Event:
• UN Secretary General Ban Kim-Moon plans to host an “International Compact
with Iraq Document closure ceremony” March 16 in New York City to allow the
Iraqi government to brief UN member states on the progress on International
Compact, to circulate the Compact documents and to encourage international
support for the Iraqi government’s ambitious reform program set out in the
Compact.
Georgia Says it Will More Than Double its Iraq Force:
• President Mikhail Saakashvili said that Georgia plans to send more troops to Iraq
this year. Georgia will increase its presence from its current force of 850 to more
than 2,000.
24
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[7.] Increase International Support for Iraq – Contributors to Iraqi
Stability Operations
Data as of March 5, 2007
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
25 Countries with forces in Iraq (in addition to US)
Albania
Denmark
Lithuania
Slovakia
Armenia
El Salvador
Macedonia
South Korea
Australia
Estonia
Moldova
Ukraine
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Mongolia
UK
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Japan
Poland
Bulgaria
Kazakhstan
Romania
Czech Republic
Latvia
Singapore
TOTAL ~ 14,035 Forces
*Note: Fiji participating as a
part of the UN mission in Iraq.
34 Countries and NATO*
(including US)
Support Iraqi Stability Operations
*34 includes the 25 countries listed above, the US, Fiji, and seven NATO, non-MNF-I countries: Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Netherlands,
Portugal, Slovenia, Turkey
25
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[8.] Strengthen Public Understanding of Coalition Efforts and Public
Isolation of the Insurgents – Developments
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
President Bush Outlines the Importance of International Cooperation:
• In a March 6 press conference President Bush outlined the importance of
international cooperation on Iraq. The President said that, “To succeed,
Iraq's leaders also need the help of the international community. So the
United States supports the Iraqi government as it pursues an international
initiative to build diplomatic, economic, and security support for its young
democracy. ... Diplomacy is going to play an important part of securing Iraq's
future. Yet diplomacy will fail without a robust military strategy. The goal of
the enemies in Iraq is power, and they're willing to kill themselves and
innocent men, women, and children to achieve that goal. People like these
can't be satisfied by negotiations or diplomatic concessions. Our strategy
recognizes the hard truth. So we're going to continue to pursue our enemies
in Iraq relentlessly, and at the same time, we'll work with moderate forces to
achieve reconciliation between sectarian factions."
26
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
Iraq Weekly Status – General Information
D
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A
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M
E
N
T
• This brief draws from multiple sources. References are cited on the
following pages.
• Please forward all questions and/or comments to:
NEA-I-IPOG-DL@state.gov
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F
S
T
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E
27
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
Notes and Source Citations (1 of 3)
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Slide 5:
– MNSTC-I – The Advisor – 10 March 2007
Slide 6:
-
Slide 7:
– MNF-I Press Release – 8 March 2007 – (http://www.mnf-iraq.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10453&Itemid=128).
–
MNSTC-I – The Advisor – 10 March 2007
Slide 8:
–
DoD Input to Iraq Weekly Status Report March 7, 2007
Slide 9:
- http://www.gxonline.com/gxintelnews?id=38481
- http://edition.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/meast/02/18/iran.sadr/
Slide 10:
–
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F
MNF-I Press Release – 12 March 2007 – (http://www.mnf-iraq.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10553&Itemid=128
NEA Political Section, NEA-I-POL-DL@state.gov
Slide 11:
–
IRMO Weekly Report, March 13, 2007
Slide 12:
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E
–
POC Bob Means (202) 647-9815
–
The chart shows average daily power production in megawatt hours (MWh). 120,000 MWh goal equates to 20 hours at 6000 MW average supplied
load or 24 hours at 5000 MW average supply load. To date, national electricity supply for 2007is only one percent below 2006. Because demand is
increasing, however, the relative decline in national hours of power is much larger: an average of 8.9 hours for January 1-March 14, 2007, compared
with an average of 10.5 hours for the same period in 2006.
28
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
Notes and Source Citations (2 of 3)
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Slide 13:
– Electricity:
– USACE Daily Report – 12 March 07
– Water
– USACE Daily Report – 9 March 07
– USACE Daily Report – 13 March 07
Slide 14:
– Oil Prices are sourced from Bloomberg
Employment Update:
– Information regarding the Employment Update was sourced from the IRMO Weekly Report – March 13, 2007.
– CERP has not reported figures for some time. Until they report accurate data, the number will remain at 0.
– PCO will be reporting on a bi-weekly basis.
Slide 15:
– Information regarding the NID auction was gathered from the Central Bank of Iraq’s website: http://www.cbiraq.org
Slide 16:
– Iraqi Bond Prices are sourced from Bloomberg
Slide 17:
- Department of State, NEA-I-ECON, 202-647-9885
Slide 18:
- (http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2007/pr0748.htm)
S
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Slide 19:
– Department of State, NEA-I-ECON, 202-647-9885
Slide 20:
– Department of State, NEA-I-ECON, 202-647-9885
29
UNCLASSIFIED
March 14, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
Notes and Source Citations (3 of 3)
Slide 21:
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–
Department of State, NEA-I-ECON, 202-647-9885
–
Department of State, NEA-I-ECON, 202-647-9885
Slide 22:
Slide 23:
-
http://www.mnf-iraq.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10448&Itemid=21
Slide 24:
-
www.washingtonpost.com
-
http://www.un.org
-
DOD Input to Weekly Status Report, updated bi-weekly
Slide 25:
Slide 26:
-
http://www.whitehouse.gov/infocus/iraq/
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30
UNCLASSIFIED