July 18, 2007
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Iraq Weekly
Status Report
July 18, 2007
Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs
US Department of State
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July 18, 2007
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Table of Contents
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This report provides weekly updates in the eight key areas identified as pillars
of U.S. government policy for victory in Iraq.
SECTION
SLIDE
Highlights
3
1. Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgents
5
2. Transition Iraq to Security Self-Reliance
8
3. Help Iraqis to Forge a National Compact for Democratic
10
Government
4. Help Iraq Build Government Capacity and Provide Essential
12
Services
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5. Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy
15
6. Help Iraq Strengthen the Rule of Law and Promote Civil Rights
24
7. Increase International Support for Iraq
25
8. Strengthen Public Understanding of Coalition Efforts and
27
Public Isolation of the Insurgents
Sources and Contact Information
Notes and Source Citations
28
29
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July 18, 2007
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Highlights
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1.
Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgents
MNF-I spokesman Brigadier General Kevin Bergner announced that U.S. forces have arrested
Khaled al-Mashhadani, a top Iraqi militant, who acted as a link between al-Qaida's Iraqi offshoot and
Osama bin Laden. Under interrogation, Mashhadani revealed that propaganda tapes released by alQaida in Iraq's supposed Iraqi kingpin, Omar al-Baghdadi, were in fact voiced by an actor under the
command of an Egyptian militant. Mashhadani is believed to be the most senior Iraqi in the al-Qaida
in Iraq network and is a close associate of Abu Ayyub al-Masri, the Egyptian-born head of al-Qaida in
Iraq.
2.
Transition Iraq to Security Self-Reliance
Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) have shown continued improvements since the beginning of Operation
Fardh al-Qanun (FAQ) in mid-February. The establishment of the Baghdad Operations Command in
March and the subordinate Karkh and Rusafa area commands was especially significant, giving the
Iraqis increased command and control of their own forces, enabling them to establish a planning
process, and helping them take the lead in the command and control of division-level operations.
3.
Help Iraqis to Forge a National Compact for Democratic Government
The parliamentary bloc loyal to Muqtada al-Sadr ended its boycott of the Iraqi legislature July 17,
after walking out of parliament more than a month ago following the bombing Askira Shrine, which
Sadr blamed in part on the failure of Iraqi security forces protecting it. The lawmakers claim they are
ending the boycott of parliament sessions after officials accepted their demands for rebuilding the
shrine. Iraq's main Sunni parliamentary bloc, the National Concord Front, has ended its boycott of the
assembly in a move that could help the passage of key laws aimed at promoting national unity.
4.
Help Iraq Build Government Capacity and Provide Essential Services
Completion of the U.S.-funded Tamoz Primary Health Center will enhance the quality of life for
residents of Mosul City. The center will be able to administer health and dental care to over 35,000
patients annually.
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Highlights
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5. Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy
Iraqi statistics show that the inflation rate for June was 6.1% overall, bringing year-to-date
inflation to 8.5% and year-on-year inflation to 46.1%. The increase was largely driven by a
22.1% rise in fuel prices. Core inflation (which excludes fuel and transport prices), however,
appears to be edging gradually downward.
6. Help Iraq Strengthen the Rule of Law
Iraqi police forces conducted an intelligence driven operation in Samarra July 9 and detained
an individual allegedly responsible for running a mortar and sniper network in Samarra.
7. International Support for Iraq
U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon warned on Monday against an "abrupt withdrawal" by
U.S. forces from Iraq and said the international community must not abandon the Iraqi people.
However, UNSG Ban, who met President Bush on a visit to Washington July 17, said it was
not his place to inject himself into the debate raging in Congress in recent weeks over
withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq.
8. Strengthen Public Understanding of Coalition Efforts and Public Isolation of the
Insurgents
An Iraqi journalist for The New York Times was killed July 13 while on his way to work, less
than an hour after he called the bureau to say a checkpoint had blocked his normal route, the
newspaper said.
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July 18, 2007
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[1.] Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgency
Coalition Efforts Against AQI:
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• Multi-National Forces-Iraq (MNF-I) spokesman Brigadier General Kevin Bergner reported
June 11 that al-Qaida in Iraq (AQI) and its affiliates are the main near-term threat in Iraq
and are the greatest source of spectacular attacks, fueling sectarian violence in the
country.
• Over the past two months, Coalition efforts against AQI leadership have begun to disrupt
AQI’s networks and safe havens and are targeting AQI sanctuaries in Baghdad’s
neighborhoods and areas around the city. From a geographical perspective, Coalition
Forces (CF) are conducting operations throughout Iraq, but have been particularly
effective against al-Qaida leadership in Mosul and Baghdad.
• CF have killed or captured 26 high-level AQI leaders and hundreds of other AQI
members during May and June. Of these 26, 11 were emirs who were city or local alQaida leaders; seven were facilitators who smuggled foreigners, weapons and money
into Iraq; five were cell leaders who commanded terrorist units that worked for the emirs;
and three were vehicle-borne improvised explosive device network leaders.
• Coalition operations are also impacting AQI’s infrastructure. Last month, MNF-I
uncovered a major al-Qaida media production center near Samarra called the al-Furqan
Media Productions by AQI. It produced CDs, DVDs, posters, pamphlets, and web-related
propaganda products and contained documents clearly identifying AQI’s intent to use
media as a weapon. The building contained 65 hard drives, 18 thumb drives, over 500
CDs, and 12 stand-alone computers .
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July 18, 2007
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[1.] Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgency
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[1.] Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgency
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Most Senior Iraqi Member of the AQI Network Captured:
• MNF-I spokesman Brigadier General Kevin Bergner announced that U.S. forces
have arrested Khaled al-Mashhadani, a top Iraqi militant, who acted as a link
between al-Qaida's Iraqi offshoot and Osama bin Laden. Under interrogation,
Mashhadani revealed that propaganda tapes released by al-Qaida in Iraq's
supposed Iraqi kingpin, Omar al-Baghdadi, were in fact voiced by an actor under
the command of an Egyptian militant. Mashhadani is believed to be the most senior
Iraqi in the al-Qaida in Iraq network and is a close associate of Abu Ayyub al-Masri,
the Egyptian-born head of al-Qaida in Iraq.
Operation Fardh al-Qanun Update:
• Brigadier General John Campbell, the deputy commanding general for MultiNational Division-Baghdad (MND-B) and the 1st Cavalry Division reported that
since the beginning of 2007, the numbers of kidnappings and murders in Baghdad
have declined nearly 50% and attacks against the civilian population have declined
by nearly 30%. Campbell said the decline in the violence against civilians is due to
the surge of forces, allowing MND-B to leave behind troops to secure
neighborhoods after clearing out insurgents.
7
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July 18, 2007
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[2.] Transition to Security Self-Reliance – Iraqi Security Forces
ISF Participation in FAQ:
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• Five months into Operation Fardh al-Qanun (FAQ), Brigadier General John Campbell, the
deputy commanding general for Multi-National Division-Baghdad (MND-B) and the 1st
Cavalry Division, said Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) have shown continued improvements
since the operation began in mid-February.
• The establishment of the Baghdad Operations Command in March and the
subordinate Karkh and Rusafa area commands was especially significant, giving the
Iraqis increased command and control of their own forces, enabling them to
establish a planning process, and helping them take the lead in the command and
control of division-level operations.
• The ISF have conducted nearly 400 separate company-level or higher operations
with MND-B since FAQ began in mid-February, uncovering more than 740 weapons
caches in those operations.
Iraqi Soldiers Participate in Advanced Infantry Course:
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• Soldiers from 4th Brigade, 6th Iraqi Army (IA) Division participated in the advanced
infantry course, dubbed the “Commando Course,” at the IA compound in Mahmudiyah.
The course, planned and designed by non-commissioned officers of 2nd Battalion, 15th
Field Artillery Regiment, 10th Mountain Division was developed to give the IA soldiers
advanced infantry training skills. The class began July 8 and the soldiers are scheduled
to graduate August 7.
8
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July 18, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[2.] Transition Iraq to Security Self-Reliance – Iraqi Security
Forces
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Ministry of Interior Forces
COMPONENT
TRAINED &
EQUIPPED
POLICE
~135,000
NATIONAL
POLICE
~ 26,300
OTHER MOI
FORCES
~32,900
TOTAL
~194,200*
Ministry of Defense Forces
COMPONENT
OPERATIONAL
ARMY
~156,900***
AIR FORCE
~900
NAVY
~1,100
TOTAL
~158,900**
Total Trained & Equipped ISF:
~353,100****
* Ministry of Interior Forces: Unauthorized absence personnel are included in these numbers
** Ministry of Defense Forces: Unauthorized absence personnel are not included in these numbers
*** Army numbers include Special Operations Forces and Support Forces
**** Does not include the approximately 144,000 Facilities Protection Service personnel working in 27
ministries
9
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July 18, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[3.] Help Iraqis to Forge a National Compact for Democratic
Government
Sadr and Sunni Parliamentary Blocs End Boycotts:
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• The parliamentary bloc loyal to Muqtada al-Sadr ended its boycott of the Iraqi legislature
on July 17, after walking out of parliament more than a month ago following the bombing
Askira Shrine, which Sadr blamed in part on the failure of Iraqi security forces protecting
it. The lawmakers claim they are ending the boycott of parliament sessions after officials
accepted their demands for rebuilding the shrine. Iraq's main Sunni parliamentary bloc,
the National Concord Front, has ended its boycott of the assembly in a move that could
help the passage of key laws aimed at promoting national unity.
Oil Industry Workers Protest Draft Hydrocarbon Law:
• About 300 oil industry workers gathered in Iraq’s main oil port of Basrah to protest a draft
hydrocarbon law that they said would allow foreigners to pillage the country’s wealth.
U.S. officials see the passing of the draft hydrocarbon law, aimed at equitably distributing
Iraq’s oil proceeds, as a crucial benchmark of the country’s political process and a key
component of national reconciliation.
CoR Extends its Present Term:
• Iraq’s Council of Representatives (CoR) voted to extend its present term through July 31,
and for working sessions to last six days a week from July 16 through July 31. The CoR
still plans to recess for the month of August.
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July 18, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[3.] Help Iraqis to Forge a National Compact for Democratic
Government - Iraqi National Unity Government
President
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M Agriculture
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of
N Minister
Education
T Khudayyir al-Khuza’i
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Deputy President
Jalal Talabani
Deputy President
(F) = Female
Tariq al-Hashimi
‘Adil ‘Abd al-Mahdi
* Vacant
Prime Minister
Deputy Prime Minister
Nuri al-Maliki
Deputy Prime Minister
Barham Salih
Salam al-Zawba’i
Minister of
Communications
Minister of Culture
Minister of Defense
Minister of Displacement
& Migration
Minister of
Electricity
Muhammad Tawfiq
Allawi
*
Abdul Qadir Muhammed
Jasim
Abd al-Samad Rahman
Sultan
Karim Wahid
Minister of
Environment
Minister of Finance
Minister
of Foreign
*
Affairs
Minister of Health
Minister of Higher
Education
Narmin ‘Uthman (F)
Bayan Jabr
Hoshyar Zebari
*
Abd Dhiyab al-Ajili
Minister of Human
Rights
Minister of Industry
& Minerals
Minister of
Interior
Minister of Justice
Minister of Housing &
Construction
Minister of Labor &
Social Affairs
Wijdan Mikha’il (F)
Fawzi al-Hariri
Jawad al-Bulani
Safa al Safi (acting)
Bayan Daza’I (F)
Mahmud Muhammad
Jawad al-Radi
Minister of Oil
Minister of
Planning
Minister of Trade
Minister of Science &
Technology
Minister of Municipalities
& Public Works
Minister of
Transportation
Husayn alShahristani
Ali Baban
Abd al-Falah alSudani
Ra’id Fahmi Jahid
Riyad Ghurayyib
*
Minister of Water
Resources
Minister of Youth &
Sports
‘Abd al-Latif Rashid
Jasim Muhammad Ja’far
Minister of State for
Foreign Affairs
Minister of State for
Governorates Affairs
Rafi Hiyad al-Isawi
*
Minister of State for
Civil Society
Wijdan Mikha’il (acting)
Minister of State for
Tourism and Antiquities
*
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Minister of State for
National Dialogue Affairs
Minister of State for National
Security Affairs
Akram al-Hakim
Shirwan al-Waili
Minister of State for
Women’s Affairs
Fatin Abd al-Rahman
Mahmud (F)
Minister of State for
CoR Affairs
Safa al-Safi
UNCLASSIFIED
July 18, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[4.] Help Iraq Build Government Capacity and Provide Essential Services –
Financials from Iraq Relief and Reconstruction Fund (IRRF) 1 and IRRF 2
Committed
Apportioned
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Obligated
Disbursed
Sector
Apportion
Last Week
Current
Change
Last Week
Current
Change
Last Week
Current
Change
Security and Law Enforcement
$5,004.79
$4,978.21
$4,972.88
($5.33)
$4,975.17
$4,971.12
($4.05)
$4,801.30
$4,805.58
$4.28
Electricity Sector
$4,216.87
$4,171.34
$4,170.60
($0.73)
$4,046.08
$4,047.99
$1.92
$3,322.53
$3,397.90
$75.37
Oil Infrastructure
$1,724.70
$1,623.09
$1,610.26
($12.83)
$1,572.42
$1,560.08
($12.34)
$1,456.14
$1,462.54
$6.39
Justice, Public Safety and Civil
Society
$1,304.15
$1,302.73
$1,304.29
$1.55
$1,296.71
$1,297.34
$0.64
$1,091.94
$1,099.49
$7.55
Democracy
$998.35
$998.31
$998.31
$0.00
$997.26
$997.26
$0.00
$961.62
$961.72
$0.10
Education, Refugees, Human
Rights, Governance
$409.84
$399.94
$399.94
$0.00
$399.76
$399.76
$0.00
$369.57
$370.60
$1.03
Roads, Bridges and
Construction
$333.60
$327.81
$321.58
($6.24)
$320.75
$320.33
($0.42)
$227.06
$229.33
$2.26
Health Care
$815.55
$770.76
$770.67
($0.09)
$758.77
$761.11
$2.34
$670.64
$681.42
$10.78
Transportation and
Communications
$456.72
$455.45
$452.70
($2.75)
$447.17
$447.03
($0.15)
$354.40
$357.65
$3.25
$2,115.79
$2,006.40
$1,989.44
($16.96)
$1,962.86
$1,943.42
($19.44)
$1,615.15
$1,645.71
$30.56
Private Sector Development
$809.26
$809.12
$809.12
$0.00
$807.85
$807.85
$0.00
$765.43
$765.50
$0.06
Admin Expense (USAID,
STATE)
$211.05
$209.95
$209.95
$0.00
$209.95
$209.95
$0.00
$187.92
$188.65
$0.73
$18,400.66
$18,053.11
$18,009.73
($43.38)
$17,794.74
$17,763.24
($31.50)
$15,823.71
$15,966.08
$142.37
IRRF II Construction
-
$10,341.38
$10,308.64
($32.75)
$10,089.75
$10,073.11
($16.64)
$8,657.33
$8,773.13
$115.80
IRRF II Non-Construction
-
$6,713.42
$6,702.79
($10.63)
$6,707.72
$6,692.86
($14.86)
$6,204.76
$6,231.24
$26.47
IRRF II Democracy
-
$998.31
$998.31
$0.00
$997.26
$997.26
$0.00
$961.62
$961.72
$0.10
IRRF I Total
$2,473.30
$2,473.30
$2,473.30
$0.00
$2,232.3
$2,232.3
$0.00
$2,139.00
$2,139.0
$0.00
Grand Total IRRF I & II
$20,873.96
$20,526.41
$20,483.03
($43.38)
$20,027.04
$19,995.54
($31.50)
$17,962.71
$18,105.08
$142.37
Water Resources and
Sanitation
Total
As of July 17, 2007
12
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July 18, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[4.] Help Iraq Build Government Capacity and Provide Essential
Services – Electricity Overview
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Daily Electricity Supplied and Estimated Demand in Iraq Since January 2004
Daily Supply
7-Day Average Supply
Estimated Demand
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
O
F
50,000
6/14/07
3/16/07
12/16/06
9/17/06
6/19/06
3/21/06
12/21/05
9/22/05
6/24/05
3/26/05
12/26/04
9/27/04
6/29/04
3/31/04
1/1/04
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Date
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E • For the week of July 11-17, national electricity supply was 4 percent below the same period in
2006.
13
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July 18, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[4.] Help Iraq Build Government Capacity and Provide Essential
Services – Electricity and Health
Electricity:
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•
Electrical service has been made available to over 12,000 Salah al-Din province
residents with the completion of the U.S.-funded Bayji feeder project.
•
Completion of the U.S.-funded Shawrek electric project in Dahuk will provide
reliable electrical service for a school, a mosque and 26 households.
Health:
•
Completion of the U.S.-funded Tamoz Primary Health Center will enhance the
quality of life for residents of Mosul City. The center will be able to administer
health and dental care to over 35,000 patients annually.
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July 18, 2007
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[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – Oil Update and Job
Creation
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Oil Update:
• Crude oil price averages in world markets for the week ending July 13 closed with the
following prices:
– Basrah Light at $72.794/ barrel
– Dated Brent at $77.754/barrel
– WTI Cushing at $72.798/ barrel
– Oman/Dubai at $69.528/barrel
Employment Update:
Iraqis
Last
Week
Iraqis
This
Week
%
change
Gulf Region District (GRD) (Includes MILCON/OMA)
19,909
14,480
-27%
US Agency for International Development (USAID)
Commander's Emergency Response Program (CERP)
66,940
4,320
63,166
4,320
-6%
0%
Multi-National Security Transition Command-Iraq (MNSTC-I)
Iraq Reconstruction Relief Fund (IRRF) Non-Construction
10,731
8,855
11,153
8,855
4%
0%
GRAND TOTAL
110,755
101,974
-8%
Iraqi Employment Per Organization
Employment Program
As of July 17, 2007
15
UNCLASSIFIED
July 18, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy - Banking Sector
1,500
$100.0
$90.0
1,450
$80.0
$70.0
1,400
$60.0
$50.0
1,350
$40.0
1,300
NID Exchange Rate
O
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Central Bank of Iraq
USD Currency Auction: July 16, 2006 – July 16, 2007
USD Sold (Millions)
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Central Bank’s US Dollar (USD) Currency Auction:
• The following table shows volume sold of and exchange rates for USD in the Iraqi currency auction since April. Since
September, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has slowly appreciated the dinar, as suggested by the IMF, in an effort to rein in
galloping inflation. Iraqi statistics show that the inflation rate for June was 6.1% overall, bringing year-to-date inflation to
8.5%, which projects a pace below the IMF annual target of 30%. The increase was largely driven by a 22.1% rise in fuel
prices. Core inflation (which excludes fuel and transport prices), however, appears to be edging gradually downward,
which is somewhat encouraging.
$30.0
$20.0
1,250
$10.0
$0.0
1,200
Ju
Jul 1
6
Ju J l 2 - 2
l 3ul 3 - 0
1 26 25
A - A- 3
A ug ug 0
u
A A g 8- 7
u u 1 1
Seg 3g 1 - 0
Se p 0 23 22
6 - Sep 1 - Se 29
p 3 - Se p 5
Se21 Sep 1
p - p 2
O 2 Se 19
O ct 6 - p 2
c 3 O 5
O t 1 - O ct
ct 1 c 2
N 19 O t 1
N ov - Oct 10
ov 4 c 8
8 -Nt2
N N - N ov 9
ov o o 7
v v
D
D ec 29 15 14
ec 6 - D 1 - De28
ec 3 D c
- e 1
Ja 20 Dec 1
Ja n - D c 2
1
n 8
Ja 1 - ec 8
n 7 - Ja 26
n
2
Ja 3 Ja 1
F n 3 - J n 26
e
Fe b 0 - an 2
6 F 2
Feb 1 - F eb 9
b 4- eb 5
Fe 21 Fe 1
b - b 3
M 2 Fe 20
ar 8- b
7- Ma 27
M
M
ar M a r 6
a r
M 22 r 1 13
ar -M 4
aA Ap 28 r 220
pr r -A 7
A 103- pr
A 2
p
A r 1 - A pr
pr 7 p 8
- r
M 24 Ap 16
M ay -A r 2
ay 2 p 3
M
r
a 9- 3
M y - MMa 0
ay 16 a y
M 2 -M y 8
Juay 3- ay 15
Ju ne 30 Ma 22
Ju n 6 -J y
e - u 2
June 1 Ju ne 9
n 20 7-J ne 4
e - u 1
26 J n 3
e
Ju - un 19
Ju ly Ju e 2
n
Ju ly 1 - e 5
ly 8 - Ju 28
11 J ly
- July 5
u 1
ly 0
16
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US $ Sold (Weekly Avg)
The New Iraqi Dinar (NID) exchange rate line is calculated as a weekly weighted average (NID/USD)
16
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July 18, 2007
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[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – Securities Markets
Trading of Iraqi Bonds on the International Secondary Bond Market:
June 5, 2006 - July 13, 2007
$70.00
11.00%
$68.00
10.50%
$66.00
$62.00
9.50%
$60.00
Yield Percen tag e
10.00%
$64.00
9.00%
$58.00
8.50%
$56.00
11-J ul
2-J ul
21-J un
1-J un
12-J un
23-M ay
3-M ay
14-M ay
24-Apr
13-Apr
4-Apr
26-M ar
6-M ar
15-M ar
23-F eb
5-F eb
14-F eb
25-J an
5-J an
16-J an
27-D ec
7-D ec
18-D ec
28-N ov
8-N ov
17-N ov
30-O c t
19-O c t
10-O c t
29-Sep
20-Sep
11-Sep
31-Aug
22-Aug
2-Aug
11-Aug
24-J ul
4-J ul
13-J ul
8.00%
23-J un
$54.00
5-J un
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Iraqi Commercial Bond Sales
14-J un
O
F
• The following table shows the daily bond resale price and yield on Iraqi bonds issued January 20. The bonds were originally issued to
approximately two-thirds of Iraq’s commercial creditors as part of a debt exchange arrangement as per Paris Club terms. Iraq’s commercial
debt was approximately $22 billion before the debt-swap arrangement. The bonds, which are not yet rated, will mature in 2028.
B o n d Price in U SD
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Trading High = $73.98 (January 24)
Trading Low = $64.66 (August 30)
17
UNCLASSIFIED
July 18, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – Economic Events
Overall Inflation Up, Core Inflation Down in June:
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•
Iraqi statistics show that the inflation rate for June was 6.1% overall, bringing year-todate inflation to 8.5%, which projects a pace below the IMF annual target of 30%. The
increase was largely driven by a 22.1% rise in fuel prices. Core inflation (which
excludes fuel and transport prices), however, appears to be edging gradually downward
(from 21.1% through May to 19% through June), which is somewhat encouraging.
Iraqi Kurds Reject Latest Draft of Oil Law:
•
Iraqi Kurdish leaders spoke out July 11 against the country’s oil law, saying that they
oppose the latest drafting of the bill. The top official in Iraqi Kurdistan rejected changes
that were made to an earlier version the Kurds originally supported. Kurdistan’s Natural
Resource Minister, Ashti Hawrami, said that the amendments to the draft “reduce the
powers of the (Kurdish) region and should not be approved.”
USAID Approves New Izdihar Grant:
•
USAID approved a new Izdihar grant of $250,000 to provide capital to the al-Aman
Microfinance Institute; al-Aman also received $17,100 in CERP micro-grants program,
which supported twelve loans. Al-Aman continues to fill a gap in the local financial
scene, supplying credit to small businessmen who cannot obtain loans from local
banks, who offer only collateral loans at high rates. Kirkuk province has obligated 32
billion Iraqi Dinars (ID), or 28%, of its 2007 budget on 128 projects. The Governor’s
Technical Review Committee has approved another 290 projects, which are on the
Governor’s desk awaiting signature.
•
During his visit to Kirkuk province, Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih also stressed
the importance of proper project execution and obligating Kirkuk’s budget in a timely
fashion.
18
UNCLASSIFIED
July 18, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – Economic Events
Diyala Province Receives Additional Cash:
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•
Fifty billion ID has been injected into the Diyala provincial economy this week
through banks in Baquba, which re-opened this week. Salaries and pensions
were paid to government workers and pensioners, for some this was their first
payment in months. Numerous contractors received payment for services
rendered, some of whom had been waiting for over a year. The funds were
distributed through four banks in Baquba, which had previously been restricted in
operations due to the poor security situation.
•
The governor requested an additional $100 billion ID from the Ministry of Finance
(MoF). The reappearance of cash in the provincial banks increases the
purchasing power of the citizens of Diyala, and is tangible evidence of the
effectiveness of the provincial government in the eyes of the people.
Strides Toward Good Governance in Salah al-Din Small but Significant:
•
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PRT Salah al-Din reports that officials in Salah al-Din province are making a
conscious effort to keep the 2007 budget balanced and projects moving forward.
Automation is now being used, making it easier for the Provincial Council to
oversee the progress of projects. Also, the PRT’s economic section has helped
create an economic task force that connects local businessmen and government
officials in an effort to push financial growth within the communities.
19
UNCLASSIFIED
July 18, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – Crude Oil Production
2.40
2007 Iraqi Oil Ministry Goal: 2.1 MBPD
2.17
2.03
2.06
2.04
2.09
2.07
2.06
June 25 July 1
July 2-8
July 9-15
2.02
2.00
1.85
1.74
1.60
Millions of Barrels Per Day
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1.20
0.80
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0.40
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0.00
May 7-13
May 14-20
May 21-27
May 28 June 3
June 4-10 June 11-17 June 18-24
Production
Target
• Weekly Average (July 9-15) of 2.06 Million Barrels Per Day (MBPD)
20
UNCLASSIFIED
July 18, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – Crude Oil Export
Revenue (US$B)
O
F
$4.00
$3.50
1.68
1.62
1.55
1.44
1.50
1.45
$3.00
1.64
1.58
1.50
1.59
1.47
$1.91
1.30
1.20
$2.50
$2.00
$3.44
$3.05
$2.75
$2.73
$2.75
USD (Billions)
1.80
$1.50
$2.87
$2.46
$2.45
$2.19
$2.11
0.60
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Exports (MBPD)
2.40
Millions of Barrels per Day
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Projected
$1.00
$1.89
$1.46
$0.50
0.00
$0.00
Aug-06
Sep-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
• 2006 Revenue Estimate:
$31.3 Billion
• 2007 Revenue Estimate:
$16.9 Billion
21
Mar-07
Apr-07
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
(Year to Date)
UNCLASSIFIED
July 18, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – Total Critical Refined Product
Supplies
Domestic Production
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F
100%
3%
0%
39%
80%
Percentage of Share of Weekly Fuel Supplies
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Import
53%
60%
97%
100%
40%
61%
47%
20%
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0%
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
LPG
Note: This is a daily average for the week of July 9-15
• Diesel: 11.5 ML supply of 22.4 ML target
• Kerosene: 2.6 ML supply of 7.5 ML target
• Gasoline: 9.6 ML supply of 21.0 ML target
• LPG: 2,467 tons supply of 5,130 tons target
22
UNCLASSIFIED
July 18, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – National Stock Levels
May-07
Jul-07
Goal
25
20
15
Days
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Jun-07
10
O
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5
5
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4
3
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
LPG
• The goal is to have on hand 15 days supply of all refined products, calculated on
the basis of maximum consumption over the year and not adjusted for seasonal
variation. The numbers given above are monthly averages.
23
UNCLASSIFIED
July 18, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[6.] Help Iraq Strengthen the Rule of Law and Promote Civil Rights–
Iraqi Judicial System
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IP Detain Alleged Mortar, Sniper Cell Leader in Samarra:
• Iraqi Police (IP) forces conducted an intelligence driven operation in Samarra July 9
and detained an individual allegedly responsible for running a mortar and sniper
network in Samarra. With Coalition Forces (CF) along as advisors, Iraqi forces
seized a large amount of ammunition, four sniper rifles, parts for sniper rifles,
various mortar rounds, material for making improvised explosive devices, two black
masks, and documents.
• The capture and detainment of this individual will reduce the amount of sniper
systems in Samarra and the number of sniper and mortar attacks on Iraqi and CF.
U.S. Soldiers Battle Sectarian Biased Policemen:
• U.S. soldiers killed six Iraqi policemen and seven gunmen July 13 during a battle
that began when the troops captured a police lieutenant accused of directing a
Shiite militia group. The pre-dawn raid in eastern Baghdad came a day after
another clash in the same area that left at least 11 Iraqis dead. In both cases, U.S.
forces were targeting Shiite militias in an attempt to curb their influence. Militiamen
have infiltrated police units, and many members of the country’s Sunni minority do
not trust the police.
24
UNCLASSIFIED
July 18, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[7.] Increase International Support for Iraq – Developments
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British Prime Minister Acknowledges Failures in Iraq:
• Britain’s new Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, acknowledged that there were failures in
planning for post-invasion Iraq. He stated July 16 that Britain would shift its forces in Iraq
away from combat while investing more in Iraq’s economy. Brown has yet to set a
timetable for the withdrawal of the 5,500 British troops stationed mainly in the city of
Basrah.
UN Secretary General Warns Against “Abrupt Withdrawal” of U.S. Forces:
• U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon warned on Monday against an "abrupt withdrawal"
by U.S. forces from Iraq and said the international community must not abandon the Iraqi
people., UNSG Ban, who met President Bush on a visit to Washington July 17, said it
was not his place to inject himself into the debate raging in Congress in recent weeks
over withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq.
Iraqi National Security Adviser Discusses Foreign Militants in Iraq:
• Iraqi national security adviser Mowaffak al-Ruba'i says that nearly half of the foreign
militants targeting U.S. and Iraqi security forces and civilians are from Saudi Arabia.
Ruba'i recently visited Saudi Arabia to hold talks with officials there about curbing the flow
of militants into Iraq.
25
UNCLASSIFIED
July 18, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[7.] Increase International Support for Iraq – Contributors to Iraqi
Stability Operations
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25 Countries with forces in Iraq (in addition to US)
Albania
Denmark
Lithuania
Slovakia
Armenia
El Salvador
Macedonia
South Korea
Australia
Estonia
Moldova
Ukraine
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Mongolia
UK
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Japan
Poland
Bulgaria
Kazakhstan
Romania
Czech Republic
Latvia
Singapore
TOTAL ~ 11,451 Forces
*Note: Fiji participating as a
part of the UN mission in Iraq.
34 Countries and NATO*
(including US)
Support Iraqi Stability Operations
*34 includes the 25 countries listed above, the US, Fiji, and seven NATO, non-MNF-I countries: Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Netherlands,
Portugal, Slovenia, Turkey
26
UNCLASSIFIED
July 18, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[8.] Strengthen Public Understanding of Coalition Efforts and Public
Isolation of the Insurgents – Developments
Journalist Killed:
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• An Iraqi journalist for The New York Times was killed July 13 while on his way to
work, less than an hour after he called the bureau to say a checkpoint had blocked
his normal route, the newspaper said. According to the newspaper, Khalid W.
Hassan was the second Times employee to be killed in Iraq. Gunmen killed
Hassan in the southwest Baghdad district of Sadiyah .
Prime Minister Maliki Confident in Iraq Security Forces:
• Iraq’s prime minister was misunderstood when he said the Americans could leave
“any time they want” an aide said July 15. Prime Minister Maliki told reporters July
14 that the Iraqi army and police were capable of maintaining security when
American troops leave. Maliki’s adviser, Yassin Majid, told The Associated Press
that the prime minister meant that efforts to bolster Iraq’s security forces would
continue side-by-side. Majid urged the U.S. to continue building up Iraqi forces.
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27
UNCLASSIFIED
July 18, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
Iraq Weekly Status – General Information
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• This brief draws from multiple sources. References are cited on the
following pages.
• Please forward all questions and/or comments to:
NEA-I-IPOG-DL@state.gov
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28
UNCLASSIFIED
July 18, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
Notes and Source Citations (1 of 3)
Slide 5:
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– MNF-I Press Briefing – BG Bergner – 11 July 2007 – (http://www.mnfiraq.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=12786&Itemid=131).
Slide 6:
– MNF-I Press Briefing – BG Bergner – 11 July 2007 – (http://www.mnfiraq.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=12786&Itemid=131).
Slide 7:
– MNF-I Press Release – 16 July 2007 – Release 20070716-19 - (http://www.mnfiraq.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=12878&Itemid=128).
Slide 8:
– MNF-I Press Release – 16 July 2007 – Release 20070716-19 - (http://www.mnfiraq.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=12878&Itemid=128).
– MNF-I Press Release – 17 July 2007 – (http://www.mnfiraq.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=12885&Itemid=1).
Slide 9:
– DoD Input to Iraq Weekly Status Report July 17, 2007
Slide 10:
– www.cnn.com
– www.yahoonews.com
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– www.washingtonpost.com
Slide 11:
– NEA Political Section, NEA-I-POL-DL@state.gov
Slide 12:
– ITAO Weekly Report, July 17, 2007
29
UNCLASSIFIED
July 18, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
Notes and Source Citations (2 of 3)
Slide 13:
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– POC Bob Means, Department of State (202) 647-9815
– The chart shows average daily power production in megawatt hours (MWh). 120,000 MWh goal equates to 20 hours at
6000 MW average supplied load or 24 hours at 5000 MW average supply load.
Slide 14:
Electricity:
– USACE Daily Report – July 16
– USACE Daily Report – July 13
Health:
– USACE Daily Report – July 13
Slide 15:
– Oil Prices are sourced from Bloomberg
Employment Update:
– Information regarding the Employment Update was sourced from the ITAO Weekly Report – June 19, 2007.
– CERP has not reported figures for some time. Until they report accurate data, the number will remain at 0.
– PCO will be reporting on a bi-weekly basis.
Slide 16:
– Information regarding the NID auction was gathered from the Central Bank of Iraq’s website: http://www.cbiraq.org.
– July 17 IIC
Slide 17:
– Iraqi Bond Prices are sourced from Bloomberg
Slide 18:
– Associated Press,
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070711/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_oil_law;_ylt=AubYtqp3Wcmp77anl0Hgbw4LewgF, July 11
– PRT Weekly Summary, July 6 – July 12
30
UNCLASSIFIED
July 18, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
Notes and Source Citations (3 of 3)
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Slide 19:
–
Slide 20:
–
Slide 21:
–
Slide 22:
–
Slide 23:
–
PRT Weekly Summary, July 6 – July 12
Department of State, NEA-I-ECON, 202-647-9885
Department of State, NEA-I-ECON, 202-647-9885
Department of State, NEA-I-ECON, 202-647-9885
Department of State, NEA-I-ECON, 202-647-9885
Slide 24:
–
MNF-I Press Release, 22 July 2007; http://www.mnf-iraq.com RELEASE No. 20070711-12
–
Washington Post, July 14 by Megan Greenwell
Slide 25:
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–
www.yahoonews.com
–
http://in.today.reuters.com/news/news
–
www.un.org
Slide 26:
–
DOD Input to Weekly Status Report, updated bi-weekly.
Slide 27:
–
Associated Press - http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070716
–
Associated Press - http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070713
31
UNCLASSIFIED