September 12, 2007
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Iraq Weekly
Status Report
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Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs
US Department of State
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UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
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Table of Contents
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This report provides weekly updates in the eight key areas identified as pillars
of U.S. government policy for victory in Iraq.
SECTION
SLIDE
Highlights
3
1. Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgents
5
2. Transition Iraq to Security Self-Reliance
10
3. Help Iraqis to Forge a National Compact for Democratic
13
Government
4. Help Iraq Build Government Capacity and Provide Essential
15
Services
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5. Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy
20
6. Help Iraq Strengthen the Rule of Law and Promote Civil Rights
28
7. Increase International Support for Iraq
29
8. Strengthen Public Understanding of Coalition Efforts and
32
Public Isolation of the Insurgents
Sources and Contact Information
Notes and Source Citations
33
34
2
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September 12, 2007
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Highlights
1. Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgents
The overall number of security incidents in Iraq has declined in eight of the past 12
weeks, with the number of incidents in the last two weeks at the lowest levels seen
since June 2006.
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A 2. Transition Iraq to Security Self-Reliance
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Nearly 140 Iraqi Army, National Police and Special Operations Forces battalions are
conducting security operations, with about 95 of those capable of taking the lead in
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operations with some Coalition support.
M
E 3. Help Iraqis to Forge a National Compact for Democratic Government
Hours before congressional hearings on the progress of the U.S. military buildup, Iraqi
N
Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki addressed the Council of Representatives, saying security
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had improved dramatically in the capital and Iraq was moving away from civil war.
Maliki gave an optimistic assessment of his country's progress since the U.S. military
buildup began in February, noting security gains had been made across Iraq, insisting
his forces needed more time to take over full security responsibility from Coalition
forces.
4. Help Iraq Build Government Capacity and Provide Essential Services
Maliki agreed to dedicate $50 million to control the spread of cholera. The chief
inspector for the Ministry of Health, Dr. Adel Mohsen, denied September 6 that the
disease has spread to Iraq’s central and southern provinces. According to Dr. Mohsen,
cholera has not spread any further than Sulaimaniya and Kirkuk.
3
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September 12, 2007
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Highlights
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5. Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy
Speaking in Baghdad, U.S. Coordinator for Economic Transition Charles Ries said that Iraq’s
economy is likely to grow more than 6% in 2007, and if the oil sector is taken out, will likely be
more than 7%. Ries said that the economy is underperforming, though, due to an inadequate
supply of electricity, weakness in the oil sector, capacity constraints, and a lack of foreign and
private investment.
6. Help Iraq Strengthen the Rule of Law
President Jalal Talabani said September 7 during a press conference in Sulaymaniyah that he
would not sign the execution order of a top Saddam aide whom he personally had “provoked”
to rebel against the executed dictator. If the approval of his three-member presidency is sought
by the Iraqi supreme court, Talabani said he would refuse to sign the order of Sultan Hashim
al-Tai, (senior officer who became defense minister during Saddam’s regime).
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7. International Support for Iraq
Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s spokesman said the general approach of the U.S. and the
United Kingdom was entirely consistent and that decisions on troop levels would be based on
conditions on the ground and the assessment of the military. Brown had “very cordial and
constructive” talks with President Bush September 10.
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8. Strengthen Public Understanding of Coalition Efforts and Public Isolation of the
Insurgents
An insurgent group in Iraq posted a videotape September 10 that showed a German hostage
who has been held for more than six months and threatened to kill him unless Germany
withdrew its troops from Afghanistan within ten days.
4
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September 12, 2007
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[1.] Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgency
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General Petraeus’s Situational Report to Congress:
• General David Petraeus, the commanding general of Multi-National Force-Iraq presented
a situational assessment on Iraqi security to Congress September 10-11. General
Petraeus informed Congress that military objectives are, in large measure, being met.
• The overall number of security incidents in Iraq has declined in eight of the past 12
weeks, with the number of incidents in the last two weeks at the lowest levels seen since
June 2006.
• Civilian deaths of all categories have declined by over 45% Iraq-wide since the height of
the sectarian violence in December 2006 and declined by 70% in Baghdad.
• Iraq-wide, the number of ethno-sectarian deaths has come down by over 55% since
December 2006 and by 80% in Baghdad.
• Coalition forces (CF) and Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) have found and cleared over 4,400
weapons caches so far this year; nearly 1,700 more than the number discovered all of
last year.
• In the last eight months, CF and ISF have neutralized five media cells, detained the
senior Iraqi leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, and killed or captured nearly 100 other key leaders
and 2,500 rank-and-file fighters.
• In the last six months, CF and ISF have targeted Shia militia extremists, capturing a
number of senior leaders and fighters, as well as the deputy commander of Lebanese
Hezbollah Department 2800.
5
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September 12, 2007
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[1.] Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgency
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September 12, 2007
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[1.] Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgency
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September 12, 2007
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[1.] Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgency
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September 12, 2007
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[1.] Defeat the Terrorists and Neutralize the Insurgency
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September 12, 2007
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[2.] Transition to Security Self-Reliance – Iraqi Security Forces
General Petraeus’s Remarks on Iraqi Security Forces:
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• General David Petraeus, the commander of Multi-National Force-Iraq, presented an
assessment on Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) to Congress September 10-11. He
reported that ISF continue to grow, develop their capabilities, and shoulder more of
the burden of providing security for their country. Despite concerns about sectarian
influence, inadequate logistics and supporting institutions, as well as an insufficient
number of qualified commissioned and noncommissioned officers, Iraqi units are
engaged around the country.
• Nearly 140 Iraqi Army, National Police and Special Operations Forces battalions
are conducting security operations, with about 95 of those capable of taking the
lead in operations, albeit with some coalition support.
• 445,000 individuals are currently on the payrolls of Iraq’s Interior and Defense
Ministries.
• Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has decided to increase the number of ISF further by
the end of this year, possibly by as much as 40,000.
10
UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[2.] Transition to Security Self-Reliance – Iraqi Security Forces
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UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[2.] Transition Iraq to Security Self-Reliance – Iraqi Security
Forces
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Ministry of Interior Forces
COMPONENT
TRAINED &
EQUIPPED
POLICE
~135,000
NATIONAL
POLICE
~ 26,300
OTHER MOI
FORCES
~32,900
TOTAL
~194,200*
COMPONENT
OPERATIONAL
ARMY
~163,500***
AIR FORCE
~900
NAVY
~1,100
TOTAL
~165,500**
Total Trained & Equipped ISF:
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Ministry of Defense Forces
~359,700****
* Ministry of Interior Forces: Unauthorized absence personnel are included in these numbers
** Ministry of Defense Forces: Unauthorized absence personnel are not included in these numbers
*** Army numbers include Special Operations Forces and Support Forces
**** Does not include the approximately 144,000 Facilities Protection Service personnel working in 27
ministries
Latest Data Available
12
UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[3.] Help Iraqis to Forge a National Compact for Democratic
Government
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Iraqi Prime Minister Says Civil War Prevented in Iraq:
• Hours before congressional hearings on the progress of the U.S. military buildup,
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki addressed the Council of Representatives, saying
security had improved dramatically in the capital and Iraq was moving away from
civil war. Maliki gave an optimistic assessment of his country's progress since the
U.S. military buildup began in February, noting security gains had been made
across Iraq, insisting his forces needed more time to take over full security
responsibility from Coalition forces.
Sadr Movement Says May Pull Out of Iraqi Coalition:
• The political movement loyal to cleric Muqtada al-Sadr said it may pull out of Iraq's
ruling Shia coalition unless the government improves security and makes political
progress. If Sadr's supporters withdrew they would leave Prime Minister Nuri alMaliki's alliance with just 83 seats in the 275-seat Iraqi parliament, but he could still
be able form a small majority with support from Kurdish parties.
13
UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[3.] Help Iraqis to Forge a National Compact for Democratic
Government - Iraqi National Unity Government
President
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M Agriculture
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of
N Minister
Education
T Khudayyir al-Khuza’i
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A
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Deputy President
Jalal Talabani
Deputy President
(F) = Female
Tariq al-Hashimi
‘Adil ‘Abd al-Mahdi
* Vacant
Prime Minister
Deputy Prime Minister
Nuri al-Maliki
Deputy Prime Minister
Barham Salih
Salam al-Zawba’i
Minister of
Communications
Minister of Culture
Minister of Defense
Minister of Displacement
& Migration
Minister of
Electricity
Muhammad Tawfiq
Allawi
*
Abdul Qadir Muhammed
Jasim
Abd al-Samad Rahman
Sultan
Karim Wahid
Minister of
Environment
Minister of Finance
Minister
of Foreign
*
Affairs
Minister of Health
Minister of Higher
Education
Narmin ‘Uthman (F)
Bayan Jabr
Hoshyar Zebari
*
Abd Dhiyab al-Ajili
Minister of Human
Rights
Minister of Industry
& Minerals
Minister of
Interior
Minister of Justice
Minister of Housing &
Construction
Minister of Labor &
Social Affairs
Wijdan Mikha’il (F)
Fawzi al-Hariri
Jawad al-Bulani
Safa al Safi (acting)
Bayan Daza’I (F)
Mahmud Muhammad
Jawad al-Radi
Minister of Oil
Minister of
Planning
Minister of Trade
Minister of Science &
Technology
Minister of Municipalities
& Public Works
Minister of
Transportation
Husayn alShahristani
Ali Baban
Abd al-Falah alSudani
Ra’id Fahmi Jahid
Riyad Ghurayyib
*
Minister of Water
Resources
Minister of Youth &
Sports
‘Abd al-Latif Rashid
Jasim Muhammad Ja’far
Minister of State for
Foreign Affairs
Minister of State for
Governorates Affairs
Rafi Hiyad al-Isawi
*
Minister of State for
Civil Society
Wijdan Mikha’il (acting)
Minister of State for
Tourism and Antiquities
*
14
Minister of State for
National Dialogue Affairs
Minister of State for National
Security Affairs
Akram al-Hakim
Shirwan al-Waili
Minister of State for
Women’s Affairs
Fatin Abd al-Rahman
Mahmud (F)
Minister of State for
CoR Affairs
Safa al-Safi
UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[4.] Help Iraq Build Government Capacity and Provide Essential Services –
Financials from Iraq Relief and Reconstruction Fund (IRRF) 1 and IRRF 2
Committed
Apportioned
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Obligated
Disbursed
Sector
Apportion
Last Week
Current
Change
Last Week
Current
Change
Last Week
Current
Change
Security and Law Enforcement
$5,004.79
$4,967.72
$4,967.72
$0.00
$4,966.76
$4,966.76
$0.00
$4,811.80
$4,811.80
$0.00
Electricity Sector
$4,216.87
$4,140.99
$4,137.92
($3.07)
$4,020.62
$4,017.55
($3.07)
$3,444.61
$3,444.44
($0.17)
Oil Infrastructure
$1,724.70
$1,610.07
$1,610.07
$0.00
$1,559.89
$1,559.89
$0.00
$1,473.11
$1,473.11
$0.00
Justice, Public Safety and Civil
Society
$2,217.65
$1,265.71
$1,265.71
$0.00
$1,258.81
$1,258.81
$0.00
$1,102.55
$1,103.22
$0.68
Democracy
$998.35
$997.34
$997.34
$0.00
$997.34
$997.34
$0.00
$967.19
$967.19
$0.00
Education, Refugees, Human
Rights, Governance
$409.84
$399.76
$408.44
$8.68
$399.76
$408.36
$8.60
$371.19
$371.20
$0.01
Roads, Bridges and
Construction
$333.60
$322.08
$322.08
$0.00
$320.82
$320.82
$0.00
$232.18
$232.18
$0.00
Health Care
$815.55
$770.68
$770.54
($0.14)
$761.54
$761.40
($0.14)
$683.85
$685.83
$1.98
Transportation and
Communications
$456.72
$452.65
$452.58
($0.07)
$446.98
$446.91
($0.07)
$358.85
$358.86
$0.02
$2,115.63
$1,990.84
$1,990.55
($0.29)
$1,942.99
$1,942.70
($0.29)
$1,666.58
$1,666.80
$0.22
Private Sector Development
$820.51
$807.85
$810.50
$2.65
$807.85
$810.50
$2.65
$794.22
$794.23
$0.01
Admin Expense (USAID,
STATE)
$210.60
$209.95
$209.95
$0.00
$209.95
$209.95
$0.00
$188.08
$188.08
$0.00
$19,324.82
$17,935.64
$17,943.40
$7.77
$17,693.32
$17,701.00
$7.68
$16,094.21
$16,096.95
$2.74
IRRF II Construction
-
$10,250.83
$10,247.26
($3.57)
$10,015.96
$10,012.39
($3.57)
$8,848.57
$8,848.65
$0.08
IRRF II Non-Construction
-
$6,687.46
$6,698.80
$11.34
$6,680.01
$6,691.26
$11.25
$6,278.45
$6,281.11
$2.66
IRRF II Democracy
-
$997.34
$997.34
$0.00
$997.34
$997.34
$0.00
$967.19
$967.19
$0.00
IRRF I Total
$2,473.30
$2,473.30
$2,473.30
$0.00
$2,232.3
$2,232.3
$0.00
$2,139.00
$2,139.0
$0.00
Grand Total IRRF I & II
$21,798.12
$20,408.94
$20,416.70
$7.77
$19,925.62
$19,933.30
$7.68
$18,233.21
$18,235.95
$2.74
Water Resources and
Sanitation
Total
15
UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[4.] Help Iraq Build Government Capacity and Provide Essential
Services – Electricity Overview
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Daily Electricity Supplied and Estimated Demand in Iraq Since January 2004
Daily Supply
7-Day Average Supply
Estimated Demand
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
6/14/07
3/16/07
12/16/06
9/17/06
6/19/06
3/21/06
Date
12/21/05
9/22/05
6/24/05
3/26/05
12/26/04
9/27/04
6/29/04
3/31/04
1/1/04
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T • Daily electricity demand September 5-11 was 21% above the same period in 2006. Daily supply
A
from the electricity grid was 22% above 2006; it met 55% of total electricity demand, compared with
T
54% for the year-earlier period.
E
• Average hours of power via electricity grid after meeting demand from essential services: Baghdad
7.9 and nationwide 11.7. Year-ago levels were Baghdad 6.0 and nationwide 10.4.
16
UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[4.] Help Iraq Build Government Capacity and Provide Essential
Services – Provision of Essential Services
D
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Healthcare:
• Maliki agreed to dedicate $50 million to control the spread of cholera. The chief
inspector for the Ministry of Health, Dr. Adel Mohsen, denied September 6 that the
disease has spread to Iraq’s central and southern provinces. According to Dr.
Mohsen, cholera has not spread any further than Sulaimaniya and Kirkuk. Official
Iraqi estimates indicate that 2,000 cases have been confirmed. Dr. Mohsen also
stated that the hot weather in the southern provinces has helped contain the
disease to Kirkuk and Sulaimaniya, where the temperature is optimal for cholera
bacteria.
Oil and Electricity:
• Kamal Field al-Basri, senior economic advisor to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and
executive director of the Iraq Institute for Economic Reform told UPI September 6
that Iraq’s oil and electricity sector needs $79 billion in investment through 2011.
He went on to say that the oil sector alone needs $56 billion, from pumping the oil
to refining needed fuels. Al-Basri said that the optimal level for electricity is 21,000
megawatts and $23 billion would be needed to meet that. Iraq’s installed
generation currently has a potential capacity of 11,000 megawatts.
17
UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[4.] Help Iraq Build Government Capacity and Provide Essential
Services – Provision of Essential Services
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Petrochemical:
• Dathar al-Khashab, director-general of the state run Midland Refineries Co.,
reported September 8 that Iraq will require up to $25 billion in investment to
expand its refining capacity over the next five to seven years. Reuters reported
that Khashab also said it would take approximately $1.5 billion to expand existing
refineries. Additionally, plans are underway for the construction of a new 300,000
barrels per day (bpd) refinery in Nasisrya and three 150,000 bpd refineries in
Amara, Kerbala, and Kirkuk.
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UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[4.] Help Iraq Build Government Capacity and Provide Essential
Services – Government Capacity
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Basrah:
• The Basrah Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) reports that the Resource
Statement for 2007 (collating donor and Iraqi projects) is nearing completion. It is
designed to focus the Council on greater transparency in their work and allow for
more effective prioritization of that work.
Kirkuk:
• The Kirkuk PRT reported during the period of 24-30 August that the electricity situation
improved slightly, as regional power plants operated normally. The national grid supplied
16 hours per day to the Province, with households seeing 6-8 hours per day, still less than
the recent averages of 10-12 hours per day.
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UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – Oil Update and Job
Creation
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Oil Update:
• Crude oil price averages in world markets for the week ending August 31 closed with the
following prices:
– Basrah Light at $70.552/ barrel
– Dated Brent at $74.846/barrel
– WTI Cushing at $75.945/ barrel
– Oman/Dubai at $70.29/barrel
Employment Update:
Iraqis Last
Week
Iraqis This
Week
% Change
Gulf Region District (GRD) (Includes MILCON/OMA)
23,752
25,487
7.30%
US Agency for International Development (USAID)
81,202
72,092
-11.22%
Commander’s Emergency Response Program (CERP)
3,519
3,519
0.00%
Multi-National Security Transition Command-Iraq (MNSTC-I)
6,321
4,703
-25.60%
114,794
105,801
-7.83%
Employment Program
Grand Total
20
UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy - Banking Sector
Central Bank’s US Dollar (USD) Currency Auction:
The following table shows volume sold of and exchange rates for USD in the Iraqi currency auction since April. Since
September, the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) has slowly appreciated the dinar, as suggested by the IMF, in an effort to rein in
galloping inflation. There are signs that this effort has begun to bear fruit, as year-to-date inflation is 4.8% and the year-onyear inflation rate was 30.2% in July. This decline in the rate of inflation may be temporary, however, as the CBI has
slowed its appreciation of the currency and the rate of inflation (particularly for energy prices) typically picks up in the
second half of the year.
Central Bank of Iraq
USD Currency Auction: September 3, 2006 – September 11, 2007
1 ,5 0 0
$ 1 0 0 .0
$ 9 0 .0
1 ,4 5 0
$ 8 0 .0
$ 7 0 .0
1 ,4 0 0
$ 6 0 .0
1 ,3 5 0
$ 5 0 .0
$ 4 0 .0
NID Exchange Rate
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•
USD Sold (Millions)
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A
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M
E
N
T
1 ,3 0 0
$ 3 0 .0
$ 2 0 .0
1 ,2 5 0
$ 1 0 .0
$ 0 .0
S
e
S p
ep 6
S 1 -S
ep 3 e
- p
2 S
S 1 ep 12
ep - S
1
O 26 ep 9
O ct 3 - O 25
ct
c
O 11 - O t 2
ct - ct
1 O 1
N 9 - ct 0
o
N v O c 18
ov 4
t
8 - N 29
- N ov
N No o 7
ov v v
D 2 15 1 4
e 9
D c - -2
ec 6 D 8
D 1 - D ec
ec 3 e 1
- c
2 D 1
Ja 0 - ec 2
Ja n De 18
n 8
c
Ja 17 - J 26
n - an
23 Ja 1
Ja
n 6
n F e 3 Jan 22
0
Fe b 6 - F 29
b - e
Fe 14 Fe b 5
b -F b
1
Fe 21- eb 3
b Fe 20
M 28 b
ar - M 27
7- a
M M Ma r 6
ar a r
1
2 r
M 2- 14 3
a r M -2
a
0
A 2 r
A p r 8 -A 2 7
pr 3 p
r
A 10 - A 2
pr - p
A r
A 17 p 8
pr - r
A 1
M 24- pr 6
M ay A p 23
a 2 r
M y 9 - M 30
a
M y 1 - M ay
ay 6 ay 8
M 23 M a 15
a Ju y M y 2
3 a 2
J ne 0- y
Ju u n 6- Ju 29
e
Ju ne
n
Ju e 2 17 ne 4
ne 0 Ju 1
3
26 - Ju ne
1
Ju - J ne 9
J u ly u n 2 5
e
1
28
J u ly 8 ly - J u
J u 1 J u ly
l 1 - ly 5
J
J y
A J u u ly 1 7 - u l y 1 0
u g ly
Ju 1
A u
2
u g s 3 1 4 - ly 6
A us t 7 - Ju 23
S
e p u g t 1 - AA u ly
t eA u u s 4 u g u 3 0
m g t 2 - A gu st
b eu s 2 u s 6
r t 2 - A gu t 1
3 8 u s 3
- S- g t 2
e pA u u s 1
te g u t 2
ms 7
b et 3
r 0
11
S
T
A
T
E
US $ Sold (Weekly Avg)
1 ,2 0 0
The New Iraqi Dinar (NID) exchange rate line is calculated as a weekly weighted average (NID/USD)
21
UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – Securities Markets
Trading of Iraqi Bonds on the International Secondary Bond Market:
Iraqi C om m ercial B ond Sales
June 15, 2006 - S eptem ber 7, 2007
12.00%
$80.00
$70.00
10.00%
$60.00
8.00%
$50.00
6.00%
$40.00
$30.00
Yield Percentage
O
F
• The following table shows the daily bond resale price and yield on Iraqi bonds issued January 20. The bonds were originally issued to
approximately two-thirds of Iraq’s commercial creditors as part of a debt exchange arrangement as per Paris Club terms. Iraq’s commercial
debt was approximately $22 billion before the debt-swap arrangement. The bonds, which are not yet rated, will mature in 2028.
Bond Price in USD
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
4.00%
$20.00
2.00%
$10.00
0.00%
-J
2 9 un
-J
u
13 n
-J
27 ul
10 J ul
-A
24 u g
-A
u
7- g
Se
21 p
-S
ep
5O
19 ct
-O
c
2- t
N
16 ov
-N
30 ov
-N
14 ov
-D
28 ec
-D
1 1 ec
-J
2 5 an
-J
a
8- n
Fe
22 b
-F
e
8- b
M
2 2 ar
-M
a
5- r
Ap
19 r
-A
p
3- r
M
1 7 ay
-M
3 1 ay
-M
1 4 ay
-J
2 8 un
-J
u
12 n
-J
26 ul
-J
u
9- l
A
23 u g
-A
u
6- g
S
ep
$0.00
15
S
T
A
T
E
Trading High = $73.98 (January 24)
Trading Low = $64.66 (August 30)
22
UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – Economic Events
Iraq Expected to See Rise in Economic Growth for 2007:
• Speaking in Baghdad, U.S. Coordinator for Economic Transition Charles Ries said
that Iraq’s economy is likely to grow more than 6% in 2007. Ries said that the
economy is underperforming, though, due to an inadequate supply of electricity,
weakness in the oil sector, capacity constraints, and a lack of foreign and private
investment.
D
E
P
A
R
T
M President Talabani Opens Business Fair in Sulaymaniyah:
E • Iraqi President Jalal Talabani opened a business fair in Sulaymaniyah region
August 6, saying that the annual event played an important role in stimulating
N
reconstruction projects in the northern Kurdish provinces and that the fair was a
T
symbol of Iraq’s national unity.
O • Over 276 Iraqi and international firms, many from Turkey and Iran, took part in the
F
fair, offering a range of products and services from cars to telecommunications.
S
T
A
T
E
23
UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – Crude Oil Production
2.80
2.07
2.10
2.06
2.08
2.04
2.32
2.24
2.03
2.00
1.60
1.15
1.20
0.80
0.40
-9
A
Se
pt
em
be
r3
ug
us
t2
7Se
pt
em
be
r2
ug
us
t2
026
A
ug
us
t1
319
A
30
A
ug
us
t6
-1
2
5
-A
ug
us
t
-2
9
Ju
ly
Ju
ly
23
-2
2
16
Ju
ly
Ju
ly
915
0.00
28
S
T
A
T
E
2.22
Ju
ly
O
F
2007 Iraqi Oil Ministry Goal: 2.1 MBPD
2.40
Millions of Barrels Per Day
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
Production
24
Target
UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – Crude Oil Export
Revenue (US$B)
O
F
$4.00
$3.50
1.76
1.64
1.58
1.55
1.44
1.50
1.45
1.69
1.55
1.50
$3.00
1.47
1.30
$2.50
1.20
$2.62
$3.39
$3.05
$2.75
$2.45
$2.75
$2.00
$3.49
USD (Billions)
1.80
$1.50
$2.96
$2.46
$2.19
0.60
S
T
A
T
E
Exports (MBPD)
2.40
Millions of Barrels per Day
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
Projected
$1.89
$2.11
$1.00
$0.50
$0.76
0.00
$0.00
Oct-06
Nov-06
Dec-06
Jan-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Apr-07
• 2006 Revenue Estimate:
$31.3 Billion
• 2007 Revenue Estimate:
$23.2 Billion
25
May-07
Jun-07
Jul-07
Aug-07
Sep-07
(Year to Date)
UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – Total Critical Refined Product
Supplies
Domestic Production
O
F
100%
14%
19%
23%
30%
80%
Percentage of Share of Weekly Fuel Supplies
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
Import
60%
86%
40%
81%
77%
70%
20%
S
T
A
T
E
0%
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
LPG
Note: This is a daily average for September 3 – 9
• Diesel: 14.4 ML supply of 24.5 ML target
• Kerosene: 10.1 ML supply of 11.1 ML target
• Gasoline: 15.1 ML supply of 23.1 ML target
• LPG: 2,420 tons supply of 5,100 tons target
26
UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[5.] Help Iraq Strengthen Its Economy – National Stock Levels
Aug-07
Jul-07
25
20
15
Days
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
Goal
Sep-07
10
O
F
5
S
T
A
T
E
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
2
1
1
0
Diesel
Kerosene
Gasoline
LPG
• The goal is to have on hand 15 days supply of all refined products, calculated on
the basis of maximum consumption over the year and not adjusted for seasonal
variation. The numbers given above are monthly averages.
27
UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[6.] Help Iraq Strengthen the Rule of Law and Promote Civil Rights–
Rule of Law
President Talabani Opposes Execution of Saddam Aide:
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
• President Jalal Talabani said September 7 during a press conference in
Sulaymaniyah that he would not sign the execution order of a top Saddam aide
whom he personally had “provoked” to rebel against the executed dictator. If the
approval of his three-member presidency is sought by the Iraqi supreme court,
Talabani said he would refuse to sign the order of Sultan Hashim al-Tai (senior
officer who became defense minister during Saddam’s regime).
New Iraqi Corruption Fighter Named:
• The Iraqi government has named the deputy head of the country’s anti-corruption
body to replace his boss, who is accused by a parliamentary committee of
corruption himself, officials reported September 6. The new chairman of the Public
Integrity Commission will be Moussa Faraj. A government official said the outgoing
chairman, Radhi al-Radhi, had requested retirement and that Prime Minister Nuri alMaliki accepted. The official also said that Faraj will replace Radhi on a temporary
basis until he is approved by parliament permanently to the new post.
28
UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[7.] Increase International Support for Iraq – Developments
Britain's Stance on Iraq Consistent with that of U.S.:
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
• Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s spokesman said the general approach of the U.S.
and the United Kingdom was entirely consistent and that decisions on troop levels
would be based on conditions on the ground and the assessment of the military.
Brown had “very cordial and constructive” talks with President Bush September 10.
UN Appoints Mistura as its Top Envoy in Iraq:
• Swedish Diplomat Staffan de Mistura, who has worked at the U.N. for 30 years, was
appointed September 5 as the new UN envoy to Iraq. De Mistura served as the
U.N.'s deputy envoy to Iraq in 2005 and 2006, and replaces Pakistani diplomat
Ashraf Qazi, who was named September 4 as the top U.N. representative to Sudan.
Both of Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's appointments have been agreed upon by
the Security Council.
S
T
A
T
E
29
UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[7.] Increase International Support for Iraq – Developments
Iraqi Vice President Thanks Kuwait for its Full Support to Iraq:
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
• Iraqi Vice President, Dr. Adel Abdul Mahdi, thanked Kuwait during a September 10
visit for its full support to Iraq, which he said would help bring about a successful
political process in Iraq and guarantee stability and security in the neighboring Arab
country. Mahdi described the visit as "excellent", noting that he had heard from his
Highness, the Amir of Kuwait Shaykh Sabah al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah "wise and
excellent words of interest to Kuwait, Iraq, the region and Muslims in general".
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
30
UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[7.] Increase International Support for Iraq – Contributors to Iraqi
Stability Operations
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
25 Countries with forces in Iraq (in addition to US)
Albania
Denmark
Korea
Poland
Armenia
El Salvador
Latvia
Romania
Australia
Estonia
Lithuania
Singapore
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Macedonia
Slovakia
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Japan
Moldova
Ukraine
Bulgaria
Kazakhstan
Mongolia
UK
Czech Republic
TOTAL ~ 11,732 Forces
*Note: Fiji participating as a
part of the UN mission in Iraq.
33 Countries and NATO*
(including US)
Support Iraqi Stability Operations
*33 includes the 25 countries listed above, the US, Fiji, and seven NATO, non-MNF-I countries: Iceland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal,
Slovenia, Turkey
31
UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
[8.] Strengthen Public Understanding of Coalition Efforts and Public
Isolation of the Insurgents – Developments
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
Iraqi Insurgents Threaten to Kill German:
• An insurgent group in Iraq posted a videotape September 10 that showed a
German hostage who has been held for more than six months and threatened to kill
him unless Germany withdrew its troops from Afghanistan within ten days. Sinan
Krause and his mother Hannelore disappeared in Iraq February 6.
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
32
UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
Iraq Weekly Status – General Information
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
• This brief draws from multiple sources. References are cited on the
following pages.
• Please forward all questions and/or comments to:
NEA-I-IPOG-DL@state.gov
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
33
UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
Notes and Source Citations (1 of 3)
Slide 5:
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
–
Report to Congress - Gen Petraeus Testimony – September 10-11
Slide 6:
– Report to Congress - Gen Petraeus Testimony – September 10-11
Slide 7:
– Report to Congress - Gen Petraeus Testimony – September 10-11
Slide 8:
– Report to Congress - Gen Petraeus Testimony – September 10-11
Slide 9:
–
Report to Congress - Gen Petraeus Testimony – September 10-11
Slide 10:
–
Report to Congress - Gen Petraeus Testimony – September 10-11
Slide 11:
–
Report to Congress - Gen Petraeus Testimony – September 10-11
Slide 12:
– DoD Input to Iraq Weekly Status Report September 11, 2007
Slide 13:
– http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/world/iraq/bal-te.iraq11sep11,0,1010756.story
– http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSL1126811620070911?src=091107_1312_TOPSTORY_petraeus_under_fire
34
UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
Notes and Source Citations (2 of 3)
Slide 14:
D
E
P
A
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T
M
E
N
T
O
F
S
T
A
T
E
– NEA Political Section, NEA-I-POL-DL@state.gov
Slide 15:
– ITAO Weekly Report, September 12, 2007
Slide 16:
– POC Department of State, NEA-I ASSIST, 202 647-9815
– The chart shows average daily power production in megawatt hours (MWh). 120,000 MWh goal equates to 20 hours at 6000 MW average supplied load or 24
hours at 5000 MW average supply load.
Slide 17:
– September 6, 2007 – (United Press International) http://www.iraqupdates.com/scr/preview.php?article=21476
– September 6, 2007 – (Voices of Iraq) http://www.iraqupdates.com/scr/preview.php?article=21479
Slide 18:
– September 10, 2007 – (Reuters) http://www.iraqupdates.com/scr/preview.php?article=21333
Slide 19:
– PRT Weekly Summary August 24-30, 2007 – (Basrah, Kirkuk)
Slide 20:
– Oil Prices are sourced from Bloomberg
Employment Update:
– Information regarding the Employment Update was sourced from the ITAO Weekly Report – September 12, 2007.
– CERP has not reported figures for some time. Until they report accurate data, the number will remain at 0.
– PCO will be reporting on a bi-weekly basis.
Slide 21:
– Department of State, NEA-I-ECON, 202-647-9885
Slide 22:
– Iraqi Bond Prices are sourced from Bloomberg
35
UNCLASSIFIED
September 12, 2007
UNCLASSIFIED
Notes and Source Citations (3 of 3)
Slide 23:
D
E
P
A
R
T
M
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N
T
O
F
S
T
A
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E
–
September 10, 2007, http://www.iraqupdates.com/p_articles.php/article/21587
–
September 10, 2007, http://www.iraqupdates.com/p_articles.php/article/21525
–
Department of State, NEA-I-ECON, 202-647-9885
–
Department of State, NEA-I-ECON, 202-647-9885
–
Department of State, NEA-I-ECON, 202-647-9885
–
Department of State, NEA-I-ECON, 202-647-9885
Slide 24:
Slide 25:
Slide 26:
Slide 27:
Slide 28:
–
September 7, 2007 - AFP - http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070907/wl_mideast_afp/iraqtrialexecutiontalabani
–
September 6, 2007 - AP - http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070906/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_corruption;_ylt=AvQz2wfFYhTsA492Mpta1o4LewgF
Slide 29:
–
http://www.africasia.com/services/news/newsitem.php?area=mideast&item=070911161536.brm8vm95.php
–
http://africa.reuters.com/wire/news/usnN05226200.html
–
September 10 OI
–
Source: DOD Input to Weekly Status Report, updated bi-weekly.
–
September 11, 2007 - http://www.iraqupdates.com/p_articles.php/article/21609
–
September 10, 2007 - http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070911/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_germany_hostage_video_1
Slide 30:
Slide 31:
Slide 32:
36
UNCLASSIFIED