Fire Potentials and Performance
Measures using FCCS
“Prioritizing and Measuring Effectiveness of Fuel/Vegetation
Treatments in the Pacific Northwest”
Roger Ottmar
Don McKenzie
Janet Ohmann
David Peterson
Sam Sandberg
SORO
National Fire Plan
“In partnership with SORO and R6 NF’s/DO’s;
provide the scientific basis and technical support for
prioritizing fuel/vegetation treatments. Help evaluate
the outcome of alternative spatial and temporal
patterns of treatments on real landscapes.”
Mapping Real Fuels
Tracking Accomplishment
Monitoring Effectiveness
Prioritizing Treatments
Strategies to Multiply Effect
Fire and Environmental Research Applications Team (FERA)
USDA Forest Service / PNW Station
Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Laboratory; Seattle, Washington
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
FCCS Implementation Projects
Select Scale and Purpose of Application
Identify Applicable Prototype FCCS Fuelbeds
Customize Fuelbeds with Local Knowledge
Derive all Possible Future Fuelbeds
Pre-thin woody fuels
Post-Thin Woody Fuels
Post-thin woody fuels
Post-thin woody fuels
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
FCCS Implementation Projects
Select Scale and Purpose of Application
Identify Applicable Prototype FCCS Fuelbeds
Customize Fuelbeds with Local Knowledge
Derive all Possible Future Fuelbeds
P r e -t h i n w o o d y f u e l s
P o s t-T h i n W o o d y F u e l s
Map Current and Future Fuelbeds
P o s t -t h i n w o o d y f u e l s
P o s t-t h i n w o o d y f u e l s
FCCS 466
FCCS352
FCCS 352
FCCS466
FCCS146
FCCS443
FCCS 366
FCCS 452
FCCS 352
FCCS466
FCCS346
FCCS 466
Calculate and Map Fire Potentials
FCCS 446
FCCS446
FCCS 446
FCCS 246
FCCS446
FCCS471
FCCS 446
FCCS 315
FCCS 352
FCCS 231
FCCS466
FCCS333
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Calculate and Map Fire Potentials
FCCS 466
FCCS 352
FCCS 352
FCCS 466
FCCS 146
FCCS 443
FCCS 366
FCCS 452
FCCS 352
FCCS 466
FCCS346
FCCS466
FCCS 446
FCCS 446
FCCS 446
FCCS 471
FCCS246
FCCS 315
FCCS 446
FCCS 446
FCCS352
FCCS 231
FCCS 466
Fuels Characteristic Class Potentials
A consistent means of classifying fuelbed
output for comparison and communication.
Mature lodgepole pine
≈ 120
FCCS333
FCC# 932
9
Crown Fire
Potential
Mature Douglas-fir/
hemlock
6
3
Pinyon/juniper
6
0
1
2
4
6
8
9
Sparse grass
Fire Behavior Potential
0
8
4 Available Fuel
2 PotentialLong leaf pine
Dense grass
0
175
350
525
Miles
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Surface Fire Behavior Potential
• Surface Fire Behavior
(with reference to Rothermel, Finney)
– 1) Reaction Potential = RP =
•
SR Scaling (normalizing) constant
• x ER Thin shell volume X heat content
(( ( (FAIdead * h) + ( FAILive * KS * h) + ( FAIHerb * KH * h))
• x f(B') Reduction due to inefficient packing
• + RLLM Energy Contribution of Litter, Lichen, Moss
– 2) Spread Potential = SP =
•
SS Scaling (normalizing) constant
• x RP Reaction Potential
• / HS Heat Sink
((EffFAImll+FAI+(7 * FAI0.1-hr) / (FAI+EffFAImll)
• Reduction due to presence of “Flash” Fuels
• / g(B') Effect of packing about equal to square root of B’
– 3) Flame length Potential = FP =
•
•
SF Scaling (normalizing) constant
x (( SP * RP) ** 0.46 )
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Extreme Fire Potential
Torching
Dependent Crown
Independent Crown
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Fire Effects: available fuel by
combustion stage
“Flash” Fuels
1-hr
100-hr
Log
Litter
Pyrolysis zone
Flame-Available Fuel
Smolder-available
Residual Smoldering Combustion available
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
FCCS Fire Potentials Flow Chart
Reaction
Potential
Spread
Potential
Flamelength
Potential
Torch
Potential
Fire Behavior
Potential
FBP: 0-10
Integrated Fire Potential:
Dependent Independent
Crown Fire Crown Fire
Potential
Potential
Flame Smoldering Residual
Available Available Available
Fuel
Fuel
Fuel
Crown Fire
Potential
Available Fuel
Potential
CFP: 0-10
AFP: 0-10
466
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
FCCS Implementation Projects
Select Scale and Purpose of Application
Identify Applicable Prototype FCCS Fuelbeds
Customize Fuelbeds with Local Knowledge
Derive all Possible Future Fuelbeds
P r e -t h i n w o o d y f u e l s
P o s t-T h i n W o o d y F u e l s
Map Current and Future Fuelbeds
P o s t -t h i n w o o d y f u e l s
P o s t-t h i n w o o d y f u e l s
FCCS 466
FCCS352
FCCS 352
FCCS466
FCCS146
FCCS443
FCCS 366
FCCS466
FCCS346
Calculate and Map Fire Potentials
FCCS 452
FCCS 352
FCCS 466
FCCS 446
FCCS446
FCCS 446
FCCS 246
Current FFCS Potentials
FCCS446
FCCS471
FCCS 315
403
Future Condition # 1
Future Condition # 2
FCCS 446
352
187 FCCS136
403
187
403
106
187
136
FCCS 231
FCCS466
FCCS333
263
263
464
Crown Fire Potential on Landscape:
Area Average
5.4
Percolation
6.0
Conductivity
6.8
Treatment Cost
$0
213
464
404
[cost $K per unit of hazard reduction]
3.4 (- 2.0) [$ 5]
1.6 (- 3.8) [$ 1.7]
6.0 ( 0)
1 (- 5.0) [$ 4.0]
6.8 ( 0)
3 (- 3.8) [$ 1.7]
$ 10K
$20K
FB CF AF
Calculate Hazard and
Performance Measures
FB CF AF
FCCS 466
FCCS 223
Decreasing hazard
at stand level
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Calculate Hazard and Performance Measures
FCCS466
FCCS 352
FCCS466
FCCS 146
FCCS 352
FCCS443
FCCS 366
FCCS452
FCCS352
FCCS466
FCCS346
FCCS466
FCCS446
FCCS446
FCCS446
Decide on Performance Measure(s)
§ Relevant to Forest and LMP/RMP
§ Standard Potentials or new?
§ Combined or suite of Potentials?
FCCS471
Create Landscape Performance
Measures
§ Percolation?
§ Conductivity?
§ Area weighted?
FCCS 446
FCCS 315
FCCS446
FCCS352
FCCS231
FCCS466
FCCS 333
Current FFCS Potentials
403
Crosswalk FCC’s with FRCC
§ Convert FCC’s to FRCC
§ Provide alternative standard
FCCS246
187
263
Future Condition # 1
403
136
187
Future Condition # 2
403
106
263
464
Crown Fire Potential on Landscape:
Area Average
5.4
Percolation
6.0
Conductivity
6.8
Treatment Cost
$0
187
136
213
464
404
[cost $K per unit of hazard reduction]
3.4 (-2.0) [$ 5]
1.6 (-3.8) [$ 1.7]
6.0 ( 0)
1 (-5.0) [$ 4.0]
6.8 ( 0)
3 (-3.8) [$ 1.7]
$ 10K
$20K
FB CF AF
FB CF AF
FCCS 466
FCCS 223
Decreasing hazard
at stand level
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Current FCCS Potentials
403
187
263
Future Scenario # 1
403
187
136
Future Scenario # 2
403
106
263
136
213
464
464
Crown Fire Potential on Landscape:
Area Average
Percolation
6.0
Conductivity
Treatment Cost
187
6.0
FB CF AF
404
1
FB CF AF
FCCS 466
FCCS 223
Decreasing hazard
at stand level
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Current FCCS Potentials
403
187
263
Future Scenario # 1
403
136
187
Future Scenario # 2
403
106
263
464
136
213
464
Crown Fire Potential on Landscape:
Area Average
5.4
Percolation
6.0
Conductivity
6.8
Treatment Cost
$0
187
404
[cost $K per unit of hazard reduction]
3.4 (-2.0) [$ 5]
1.6 (-3.8) [$ 1.7]
6.0 ( 0)
1 (-5.0) [$ 4.0]
6.8 ( 0)
3 (-3.8) [$ 1.7]
$ 10K
$20K
FB CF AF
FB CF AF
FCCS 466
FCCS 223
Decreasing hazard
at stand level
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
PNW—SORO---Management Partnership:
“Prioritizing and Measuring Effectiveness of Fuel/Vegetation
Treatments in the Pacific Northwest”
1. Identify Partners and Demonstration Areas
-- Winema Fremont Lakeview
Select Scale and Purpose of Application
Identify Applicable Prototype FCCS Fuelbeds
Customize Fuelbeds with Local Knowledge
Derive all Possible Future Fuelbeds
P r e -t h i n w o o d y f u e l s
Map Current and Future Fuelbeds
P o s t-t h i n w o o d y f u e l s
FCCS 466 P o s t-TFCCS352
hin Woody Fuels
FCCS466
FCCS146
P o sFCCS
t -t h i352
n woody fuels
FCCS443
FCCS 366
FCCS 452
FCCS 352
Current
FFCS
Future Condition # 1
FCCS466
FCCS
466Potentials
FCCS346
FCCS 446
403
FCCS 446
FCCS 315
FCCS466
FCCS333
FCCS446
136
FCCS 246
263
FCCS446
FCCS471
187
464
403
187
Calculate and Map Fire Potentials
Future Condition # 2
403
106
263
187
136
213
FCCS 446464
404
Crown Fire Potential on Landscape:
[cost $K per unit of hazard reduction]
Area Average FCCS5.4352
3.4 (- 2.0) [$ 5]
1.6 (- 3.8) [$ 1.7]
Percolation
6.0
6.0 ( 0)
1 (- 5.0) [$ 4.0]
Conductivity
6.8 FCCS 231 6.8 ( 0)
3 (- 3.8) [$ 1.7]
Treatment Cost
$0
$ 10K
$20K
FB CF AF
Calculate Hazard and
Performance Measures
FB CF AF
FCCS 466
FCCS 223
Decreasing hazard
at stand level
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Comparing FCCS to other DSS Tools
“Prioritizing and Measuring Effectiveness of Fuel/Vegetation
Treatments in the Pacific Northwest”
1. Real and accurate fuels mapped on the landscape
2. No Optimization: only before and after condition
3. Unification of Planning à Effectiveness Monitoring
4. Enables analysis of other resources, future models
5. Consistent logic at Event, Fireshed, Landscape scales
6. Completely adaptable to local decision criteria, boundaries
7. More efficient, flexible than FB modeling
FCCS 466
FCCS 352
FCCS 352
FCCS 443
FCCS 366
FCCS 452
FCCS352
FCCS 466
FCCS 346
FB CF AF
FCCS 466
FCCS 146
FCCS 466
FCCS 446
Current FFCS Potentials
FCCS 223
Future Condition # 1
FCCS446
FCCS 446
FCCS 471
403
FCCS 246
FCCS 315
FCCS 446
FCCS 446
FCCS352
187
106
FCCS 231
FCCS 466
FCCS 333
263
464
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.