State and Transition Landscape
Models
VDDT and TELSA
Intuitive, Muli-scale, Integrative
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Landscape Assessment
Issues
What is the likely future condition of the
landscape under different management
approaches?
Are key biological/ecological components or
functions likely to change?
What places might be most susceptible to fire
or insects and disease?
Where might the best opportunities for
economic utilization and restoration exist?
How might habitat trends for key wildlife
species change?
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Landscape Visualization
Future
Current
landscape
Models
Landscape
strategy
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Boxes and Arrows
(States and Transitions)
Vegetation Type A
Cover type: Ponderosa Pine
Structure: Old single-story forest
Regeneration
Growth
Underburning
Vegetation Type B
Cover type: Ponderosa Pine
Structure: Non-Stocked, Post
disturbance
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
State and Transition Models
Ground
Fire
Ground
Fire
Vegetation
Type C
Succession
Vegetation
Type A
Succession
Insects
Fire
Vegetation
Type B
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Warm, dry ponderosa pine forest
Shrub/Tree
Regeneration
0 – 25 years
Open Mid-height
Shrub
Interior Ponderosa Pine
20 – 60 years
Forest Stand Initiation
Grass/Forb
1 – 15 years
Closed Herbland
Interior Ponderosa Pine
40 – 85 years
Stem Exclusion Forest
Growth and
Development
Growth and
Development
Insects or Disease
Interior Ponderosa Pine
75 – 175 years
Forest Understory
Reinitiation
Ground
Fire
Growth and
Development
Ground
Fire
Growth and
Development
Interior Ponderosa Pine
150 years or more
Late-Seral, Single-Layer
Forest
Crown Fire
Ground
Fire
Growth and Development
Growth and
Development
Insects or
Disease
Mixed
Severity
Fire
Interior ponderosa pine
150 years or more
Late-Seral, Multi-layer Forest
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Vegetation Development Dynamics
Tool (VDDT) Details
•
•
•
•
•
Not spatial (doesn’t produce a map)
Small to very large landscapes
Hundreds of state classes
Many disturbances
Expert knowledge, literature, other models
to calibrate
• Quick execution. Stochastic. Many runs.
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Tool for Exploratory Landscape
Scenario Analysis (TELSA)
• Built on VDDT and uses VDDT input.
• Spatial. Maps. Disturbance contagion.
• Limited landscape size by Access DB (1
GB).
• Requires more analyst skill
• Takes longer to run. Fewer simulations.
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Building VDDT and TELSA Models
• Decide on model strata (potential
vegetation, fire regimes, other)
• Decide on cover type and structure stage
classes
• Assemble vegetation data
• Develop boxes and arrows (transitions) –
an interdisciplinary process
• Validation/check
• Design and run scenarios
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Blue Mountains forest lands Model
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Upper Grande
Ronde
Cover Types
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Example Results
• Preliminary may change
• “Natural” or “background” disturbance
regime and vegetation condition many centuries
• Current vegetation condition
compared to the background
disturbance regime and condition
• Example future (100 year) –
hypothetical management scenario
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Structural Stages
current and background natural disturbances
100.00%
90.00%
Young forest
percentage
80.00%
Stand initiation forest
70.00%
Stem exclusion forest
60.00%
Old single-story forest
Old multi-story forest
50.00%
Not forest
40.00%
Non-stocked forestland
30.00%
20.00%
1000
950
900
850
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0.00%
0
10.00%
simulation year
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Areas Most Susceptible to Fire and
Insects/Disease
100 year fire probability
100 year insect and
disease probability
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Future Habitat Trends
current
100 y
200 y
Trend
Selected Species Group
White-headed Woodpecker
Pygmy Nuthatch
Flammulated Owl
Great Gray Owl
Pileated Woodpecker
Northern Goshawk
Brown Creeper
Rufous hummingbird
Mountain bluebird
Dry Older Forest
Snags
?
Dry/Moist Older Forest
Snags
Large trees
Early seral, open forest
Open forests, snags
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Comparison to Historical Conditions
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
old multi-story
forest
young forest
stem exclusion
forest
stand initiation
forest
not forested
0%
old single -story
forest
10%
Historical range, plus or minus 25% of mean
Current
100 year future, current probabilities
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Riparian/Aquatic Habitats
Ground
Fire
Ground
Fire
Vegetation
Type C
Vegetation
Type A
Depositional
Flood
Erosional
Flood
Fire
Vegetation
Type B
Succession
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Wildlife and Livestock Grazing Effects
Photo: Fred Hall, USDA Forest Service
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Utilization
1. Do proposed restoration treatments yield
any material that can be accessed and
utilized?
2. If so, how much can treatment costs be
offset by sale of merchantable material?
3. What is the net cost of specific treatments
and specific management scenarios?
Doug Maguire, OSU
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Revenue
Potential
Upper Grande
Ronde
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.
Contacts
•www.essa.com
•Jim Merzenich, Planning, RO, (503) 808-2284
•Miles Hemstrom, Portland FSL, (503) 808-2006
Disclaimer: The views in this report (presentation) are these of the author(s) do not necessarily represent the views of the Forest Service.