300
4.00
3.00
250
2.00
1.00
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
1968
1967
1966
1965
1964
1963
1962
1961
-1.00
1960
0.00
200
Thousands
Strategies in Enterprise Ecology:
Symbiotic Models for Commercial Aviation as an
Enterprise of Enterprises
150
-2.00
100
-3.00
-4.00
50
-5.00
-6.00
Framework:
Enterprise of
Enterprises
Airline Net Profit (in constant $Billion)
0
Aircraft Orders (seats)
Cyclical Boom-busts: Increasing amplitude of oscillation
‘Causes’ of Cyclicality
Increasing costs to enterprise and society by:
•Econ. Return < Cost of Capital for long periods
• Sub-optimal use of resources
• Labor distress and subsidies
MITIGATE CYCLES
Stakeholder Value
Functions
System Dynamics
Model*
Model Calibration
Sgouris Sgouridis (sgouris@mit.edu)
Strategic Alternatives
*Model developed based on
H.B. Weil 1996 in
collaboration with
J. Lin and J. McConnell
Committee: Prof. Joe Sussman (chair), Dr. K. Bozdogan, Prof. O. deWeck, Dr. H. Weil