Using SIMPPLLE to address questions:
Has our management altered how a landscape is developing?
How would a landscape have changed without our actions?
Can the managed landscape ever return to “historic conditions”
SIMPPLLE
*Work was originally done in Feb 04, modifications made to show
potential to address cumulative impacts
Using FRAGSTATS with SIMPPLLE output to provide
quantification of landscape patterns.
Three metrics selected for
comparison purposes only
SIMPPLLE
Fortine drainage – Kootenai National Forest
approximately 25,000 acres
SIMPPLLE
Current landscape is the result of significant level of clearcut
harvest systems.
SIMPPLLE
How do Fragstats metrics of the current landscape compare to
what existed prior to harvests
What will be the metrics of a future landscape as a result of
the harvesting and the continued application of fire suppression?
Would the metrics of a future landscape without
the harvesting (but with disturbance processes) be different?
What are possible values of historic landscapes that include
levels of mountain pine beetle and fire processes?
How different is the future landscape as described by the
metrics from possible historic landscapes?
SIMPPLLE
Current size class converted
to a grid of 5 acre cells
Very large
Medium
Openings
Large
pole
Future size classes from a
50 year SIMPPLLE simulation
with harvest
(5 acre cells)
Very large
Medium
Openings
Large
pole
Preharvest size classes
converted to 5 acre cells
Very large
Medium
Openings
Large
pole
need to simulate forward
without harvest but with
expected natural processes
Very large
Medium
Openings
Large
pole
Preharvest size classes
converted to 5 acre cells
average mpb in lp - current conditions
Simulated mpb activity
that has occurred
with harvesting.
3000
2500
smpb
1500
lmpb
1000
500
0
1
2
3
4
5
decades
average mpb in lp - pre harvest conditions
3000
2500
Simulated mpb activity
that would have occurred
without harvesting
2000
acres
acres
2000
smpb
1500
lmpb
1000
500
0
1
2
3
decade
4
5
average -srf current landscape
500
Simulated stand replacing fire
with harvest.
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1
2
3
4
5
Simulated stand replacing fire
without harvest – but with fire
suppression. Modeling of fire
suppression may be too effective
so ---
acres
srf average - preharvest conditions
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1
2
3
decade
4
5
average -srf current landscape
Simulation of fire without
suppression showing impact
of mpb activity without harvest
on the fire processes
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
pre-harvest without suppression
100
50
1
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2
3
4
5
STAND-REPLACINGFIRE
srf average - preharvest conditions
acres
acrew
0
1
2
3
decade
4
LIGHT-SEVERITYFIRE
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
MIXED-SEVERITYFIRE
5
1
2
3
decade
4
5
Three historic size classes
from SIMPPLLE simulations
Very large
Medium
Openings
Large
pole
Created historic starting with preharvest conditions
-3
or
ic
hi
st
-2
or
ic
hi
st
hi
st
or
ic
-1
st
ar
ve
pr
eh
ye
Would need to add
what the current and
a future would be without
the past harvest
fu
t
ur
e
(5
0
cu
ar
s)
8
6
4
2
0
rre
nt
index value
FRAGSTATS LANDSCAPE METRIC SHAPE_RA
With harvest
The “shape range” metric for the entire landscape of the
current and future fall well below that of any simulated historic
landscape. The trend from the current to the future is for a
continued decrease.
SIMPPLLE
With harvest
historic -3
historic -2
historic -1
preharvest
future (50
years)
4
3
2
1
0
current
index value
FRAGSTATS CLASS METRICS OPENINGS SHAPE_RA
Would need to add
what the current and
a future would be without
the past harvest
The harvesting created a class metric for “shape range” greater
than any simulated historic value. However the future trend is
for a rapid decrease below any simulated historic value.
SIMPPLLE
historic -3
historic -2
historic -1
preharvest
future (50
years)
800
600
400
200
0
current
index value
FRAGSTATS CLASS METRICS OPENINGS AREA_RA
Would need to add
what the current and
a future would be without
the past harvest
With harvest
The harvesting created a class metric for “area range” greater
than any simulated historic value. However the future trend is
for a rapid decrease below any simulated historic value.
SIMPPLLE