doi:10.1111/j.1365-2761.2009.01131.x Journal of Fish Diseases 2010, 33, 391–402 Salmonid alphavirus (SAV) and pancreas disease (PD) in Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., in freshwater and seawater sites in Norway from 2006 to 2008 M D Jansen1, T Taksdal2, M A Wasmuth2,*, B Gjerset2,*, E Brun2, A B Olsen3, O Breck4 and M Sandberg1 1 2 3 4 Norwegian School of Veterinary Science, Oslo, Norway National Veterinary Institute Oslo, Norway National Veterinary Institute Bergen, Norway Marine Harvest Norway, Bergen, Norway Abstract A cohort study was initiated in the spring of 2006 to investigate epidemiological aspects and pathogenesis of salmonid alphavirus (SAV) subtype 3 infections and pancreas disease (PD). The aims were to assess involvement of the freshwater production phase, the extent and frequency of subclinical infections and to follow PD-affected populations throughout the entire seawater production cycle, as well as investigate possible risk factors for PD outbreaks. Fish groups from 46 different Atlantic salmon freshwater sites in six counties were sampled once prior to seawater transfer and followed onto their seawater sites. A total of 51 Atlantic salmon seawater sites were included, and fish groups were sampled three times during the seawater production phase. SAV subtype 3 was not identified by real-time RT-PCR from samples collected in the freshwater phase, nor were any SAV-neutralizing antibodies or histopathological changes consistent with PD. In the seawater phase, SAV was detected in samples from 23 of 36 (63.9%) studied sites located within the endemic region. No SAV subtype 3 was detected in samples from seawater sites located outside the endemic region. The cumulative incidence of PD during the production cycle amongst sites with SAV detected Correspondence M D Jansen, Norwegian School of Veterinary Science, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, PO Box 8146 Dep., N-0033 Oslo, Norway (e-mail: Mona.Dverdal.Jansen@nvh.no) *These authors contributed equally to the work. 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 391 was 87% (20 of 23 sites). Average fish weight at time of PD diagnosis ranged from 461 to 5978 g, because of a wide variation in the timing of disease occurrence throughout the production cycle. Mortality levels following a PD diagnosis varied greatly between populations. The mean percentage mortality was 6.9% (7.06) (range 0.7–26.9), while the mean duration of increased mortality following PD diagnosis was 2.8 months (1.11) (range 1–6). Keywords: Atlantic salmon, cohort study, epidemiology, pancreas disease, salmonid alphavirus. Introduction Pancreas disease (PD) is a viral fish disease with significant impact on Norwegian salmonid aquaculture. Following the first description of PD in farmed Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., in Scotland in 1976 (Munro, Ellis, McVicar, McLay & Needham 1984), the disease has been diagnosed in North America (Kent & Elston 1987), Norway (Poppe, Rimstad & Hyllseth 1989), Ireland (Murphy, Rodger, Drinan, Gannon, Kruse & Korting 1992), France and Spain (Raynard, Houghton & Munro 1992). In Norway, the disease affects both farmed Atlantic salmon and rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss (Walbaum), in sea water (Olsen & Wangel 1997; Christie, Fyrand, Holtet & Rowley 1998; Hodneland, Bratland, Christie, Endresen & Nylund 2005; Taksdal, Olsen, Bjerkås, Hjortaas, Dannevig, Graham & McLoughlin 2007), contrary to experience in Ireland and Journal of Fish Diseases 2010, 33, 391–402 Scotland where only marine Atlantic salmon production has been affected. The aetiological agent was first isolated in Ireland and named salmon pancreas disease virus (SPDV) (Nelson, McLoughlin, Rowley, Platten & McCormick 1995), and later identified as an alphavirus (Weston, Welsh, McLoughlin & Todd 1999). The species name salmonid alphavirus (SAV) was suggested later (Weston, Villoing, Bremont, Castric, Pfeffer, Jewhurst, McLoughlin, Rodseth, Christie, Koumans & Todd 2002), and several subtypes exist. In Ireland, SAV subtypes 1, 4 and 6 have been isolated from fish affected by PD, while Scottish outbreaks have been caused by SAV subtypes 1, 2, 4 and 5 (Weston, Graham, Branson, Rowley, Walker, Jewhurst, Jewhurst & Todd 2005; Fringuelli, Rowley, Wilson, Hunter, Rodger & Graham 2008; Ruane, Graham & Rodger 2008). Only SAV subtype 3 has been isolated from Norwegian PD outbreaks (Hodneland et al. 2005; Weston et al. 2005; Karlsen, Hodneland, Endresen & Nylund 2006; Fringuelli et al. 2008). The number of seawater sites diagnosed with PD in Norway increased from five in 1995 to 15 in 2001, with a further increase to 109 sites in 2008. The endemic region of the central south-western coast gradually extended southwards in 2004 and northwards in 2006, resulting in the entire southwestern coast being considered an endemic region by the end of 2006. In addition, sporadic outbreaks of PD have been recorded in northern Norway since 2003, with a cluster of repeated outbreaks over several production cycles seen in the northernmost county between 2005 and 2008. A new regulation was introduced in Norway in November 2007 making PD a notifiable disease and resulting in the setting up of a restriction zone encompassing the endemic region. The regulation aims to avoid further spread of PD out of the endemic region, as well as to mitigate disease within this region. Epidemiological observations and investigations into cases of PD in Norway, Ireland and Scotland have been performed previously. The initial observations described the disease occurring only in the seawater phase and that subsequent inputs of fish in affected sites were diseased (McVicar 1987). Fallowing for at least 3 weeks, single generation rearing, slaughtering away from site and no staff movement between sites were found to reduce losses because of PD (Wheatley, McLoughlin, Menzies & Goodall 1995). More recent studies in Ireland identified varying smolt strain susceptibility in the 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 392 M D Jansen et al. SAV and PD in Norway 2006–2008 field (McLoughlin, Peeler, Foyle, Rodger, OÕCeallachain & Geoghegan 2003), and later in experimental studies (McLoughlin, Graham, Norris, Matthews, Foyle, Rowley, Jewhurst, MacPhee & Todd 2006). Movement during the production cycle, high feeding rate prior to an outbreak, a PDinfected farm in the same water body, stocking above 250 000 fish, previous PD status at the site, high lice burden and geographical location have all been found to have an association with PD at a site (Rodger & Mitchell 2007). In Norway, well boat movements and lack of fallowing have been found to be associated with PD (Brun, Olsen & Rørvik 2005), as has infection pressure from nearby farms with PD (Kristoffersen, Viljugrein, Kongtorp, Brun & Jansen 2009). No evidence was available on the importance of subclinical SAV infections in Norway, although their occurrence had been documented from Ireland and Scotland (McLoughlin, Rowley & Doherty 1998; Graham, Jewhurst, McLoughlin, Sourd, Rowley, Taylor & Todd 2006). Although there were no reports of clinical outbreaks of PD in fry and fingerlings, a Norwegian SAV PCR-product had been sequenced from a freshwater site (Karlsen et al. 2006). As a result, an investigation into the possible involvement of freshwater sites as SAV reservoirs because of vertical transmission was required. To investigate knowledge gaps, a cohort study was initiated in the spring of 2006 to study the prevalence, cumulative incidence and geographical distribution of SAV and PD in Norway, and any involvement of the freshwater phase on the SAV and PD status of the studied sites. Additionally, an investigation into possible risk factors for PD at the studied sites was undertaken. Molecular studies of isolates from SAV-positive sites presented in this article will be published separately. Materials and methods Study design A prospective, longitudinal cohort study was designed to allow groups of Atlantic salmon to be sampled at their freshwater sites and subsequently followed throughout the seawater production cycle. A total of 46 freshwater sites rearing Atlantic salmon for commercial production were selected (Fig. 1). The number of sites to be included was based on an expected incidence of PD of approximately 30% among seawater sites in areas where Journal of Fish Diseases 2010, 33, 391–402 M D Jansen et al. SAV and PD in Norway 2006–2008 Figure 1 Maps showing the locations of freshwater study sites (grey triangles, left hand map) and seawater study sites (black triangles, centre map) in the cohort study in Norway 2006–2008. The locations of the seawater study sites found salmonid alphavirus/pancreas disease positive during the study period (black dots, right hand map) are shown relative to the endemic region (indicated by the rectangle) as defined at the end of the cohort study period. PD had previously been diagnosed. From the endemic region, 27 freshwater sites (Fig. 1) were randomly selected by the Norwegian Food Safety Authority (NFSA). An additional 19 sites from the non-endemic region (Fig. 1) were selected from the Norwegian Directorate of FisheriesÕ Aquaculture Licence Register, by a random procedure. Of these freshwater sites, 25 were hatcheries for their own stock. The remaining 21 freshwater sites represented fish from an additional 15 different hatcheries. The stocks were hatched in the winter and spring of 2005 for sea transfer the following spring as 1-year-old smolts. At each freshwater site, a single tank with increased smolt mortality or morbidity was selected by the fish health personnel to represent the freshwater study group. If no tank with increased mortality or morbidity was available, one tank was randomly chosen. Approximately 3 weeks prior to the expected time of seawater transfer, 60 randomly selected smolts, including five moribund smolts where possible, were sampled from each group (Table 1). Thirty-eight freshwater study groups were followed to their seawater phase at 42 seawater sites. 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 393 Table 1 The number of Atlantic salmon sampled at each site at each sampling point in the cohort study in Norway 2006–2008 Sampling point Freshwater Sea water Sampled group 3 weeks prior to transfer 2 months posttransfer 8 months posttransfer At slaughter Study group Control group 60 – 30 30 30 30 30 – –, not sampled. Three study groups were distributed to more than one seawater site. One study group was distributed to two seawater sites, while two study groups were each distributed to three seawater sites. Additionally, one seawater site received smolts from two study groups. From the reserve list of potential study sites, an additional nine seawater sites stocked with previously un-sampled smolt groups were included in the study, to ensure an adequate sample size and a more complete coverage of the Atlantic salmon production area in Norway. As a result, a Journal of Fish Diseases 2010, 33, 391–402 total of 51 sites were included in the seawater phase (Fig. 1). At each seawater site, one cage containing stock from the freshwater study group was selected and termed the seawater study group. A second cage, with stock originating from a different freshwater site, was selected as an on-site control group where possible. The nine sites without a freshwater study group had two cages randomly selected. The inclusion of an on-site control group was done to allow detection of SAV status differences with regard to freshwater origin and assessment of agent spread within a site. At approximately 2 and 8 months post-seawater transfer, 30 salmon, if possible including five moribund fish, were sampled from each group, resulting in a total of 60 salmon per site per sampling point (90 salmon for the site stocking two sampled freshwater groups). At slaughter, 30 fish from the study groups were sampled (Table 1). If the study group was unavailable, the on-site control group or, as a last resort, a previously un-sampled group was sampled. Sites that submitted a reduced sample number included three sites from the freshwater phase, as well as three, 11 and six seawater sites at 2 and 8 months post-transfer and slaughter, respectively. Additionally, one site in the endemic region failed to submit any samples at 2 months post-transfer. Eight months post-transfer, two seawater sites in the endemic region with a diagnosis of PD close to the sampling due date did not submit samples, while three sites in the non-endemic region failed to submit samples. At slaughter, six sites with an existing PD diagnosis, five SAV-negative sites in the endemic region and six sites in the non-endemic region failed to submit samples (site data not shown). M D Jansen et al. SAV and PD in Norway 2006–2008 Tissue sampling All salmon were euthanized prior to sampling, either by a blow to the head or by an overdose of anaesthetic. Sampling was performed by the individual companiesÕ fish health personnel or by staff from the NFSA. Heart ventricle and mid-kidney were sampled in RNAlater (Ambion) for examination by real-time RT-PCR. Gill, heart ventricle and atrium, pancreas, liver, mid-kidney and red and white skeletal muscle were fixed in 10% buffered phosphate formalin for histopathological examination. Additionally, heparinised blood samples for serological analyses were collected (Table 2). Samples were shipped the same day on ice with overnight delivery, or, if necessary, refrigerated overnight prior to shipping to the NVI (Oslo). All samples, except formalin-fixed tissues, were stored at )80 C until analysis was performed. Virology. The SAV status was determined by realtime RT-PCR analyses. A total of 20-mg mixed tissue (heart ventricle and mid-kidney) was added to 700 lL NucliSens lysisbuffer (Biomérieux) together with a tungsten carbide bead (QIAGEN Nordic), and homogenized using the Mixer Mill MM 300 (Retch). Ribonucleic acid (RNA) from homogenized (individual or pooled) samples was extracted using the automated easyMAG protocol (Biomérieux), eluted in 25 lL volume, and the quantity and purity of the extracted RNA measured by optical density using NanoDrop ND-1000 (NanoDrop Technologies). The real-time Stratagene PCR system (Stratagene) using 1-lg template RNA with a QIAGEN OneStep RT-PCR kit (QIAGEN Nordic) and primers PDF1 (5¢-CCC Records of PD Independent of the present study, all study sites were monitored by regular fish health services. Standard diagnostic procedures were followed, including submission of samples for laboratory assistance when needed. A PD diagnosis required the detection of tissue changes characteristic for PD by histopathology combined with the detection of SAV (Taksdal et al. 2007). The majority of study sites that were diagnosed with PD were examined at the National Veterinary Institute (NVI), while two were examined by other laboratories. All study site PD diagnoses were recorded together with the remaining site information. 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 394 Table 2 The number of samples collected from 46 freshwater sites and 51 seawater sites during the cohort study in Norway 2006–2008 Sampling point Freshwater Sea water Sample type 3 weeks prior to transfer Tissues on 60 RNAlater Blood samples 30 Tissues on 10 buffered formalin 2 months 8 months postpostAt transfer transfer slaughter 2 · 30 2 · 30 30 2 · 15 2·5 2 · 15 2·5 30 5 Journal of Fish Diseases 2010, 33, 391–402 CAT TCG ATC GCA AAG TA-3¢) and PDR1 (5CGT ACA GAT CAT TGG GCT TGA C-3) covering a 141nt part of the E1 fragment complementary to bases 10906–11046 of the Norwegian SAV SF21/03 isolate (AY604238) and PDE1-MGB TaqMan probe (FAM-AAG AGG TCT ATA ACT ACG ACT GG-NFQ-MGB) was used. A one-step RT-PCR protocol was carried out using 0.5 lm of each primer and 0.3 lm probe in a 25-lL reaction, with cDNA synthesis at 50 C for 30 min and inactivation of the reaction by 15 min at 95 C, followed by 45–50 cycles of 94 C for 30 s, 55 C for 30 s and 72 C for 45 s. The results were interpreted on the basis of both curve shape and obtained cycle threshold (Ct) values. Any samples showing inconclusive results, giving Ct values ‡40 or an anomalous curve shape, were reanalysed. When re-analysing, both standard primers and probe as well as alternative primers and a probe in the nsP1 region (Hodneland & Endresen 2006) were used, with interpretation criteria as detailed earlier. The best practice guidelines were followed to avoid cross-contamination between test samples. Negative and positive controls were included for each run, with results outside the accepted Ct value range of positive controls considered invalid. Analysis performed on tenfold dilutions of cell culturegrown SAV isolates showed the E1 and nsP1 primers/probe sets to have similar analytical sensitivity. Pooled samples were created by adding together 150 lL from each of five homogenized individual samples to a final volume of 750 lL. For each freshwater site, ten samples, including moribund smolts if present, were analysed individually. The remaining 50 samples were analysed as 10 pooled samples. Seawater sites had six pooled samples created per study- and control group, resulting in twelve pooled samples per site per sampling point. Where re-analysis of pooled samples was required, new RNA was extracted from the individual samples constituting the pool and analysed individually. All samples were analysed according to the protocol described earlier. Prior to laboratory analyses of the study samples, a pilot study was performed to evaluate the dilution effect of pooling. SAV-positive samples already at the NVI were combined with four volumes of samples known to be SAV-negative to create a 1/5 pool. Both the individual positive samples and the pooled samples were analysed according to the real 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 395 M D Jansen et al. SAV and PD in Norway 2006–2008 time RT-PCR procedure described earlier. The Ct values obtained from both the individual and pooled samples were recorded. Serology. Plasma samples were examined by a virus neutralization test for the detection of antibodies against SAV (Graham, Jewhurst, Rowley, McLoughlin & Todd 2003) with some modifications (Taksdal et al. 2007). Histopathology. After fixation, the samples were processed and embedded in paraffin wax according to standard procedures. Sections (4–6 lm) were stained with haematoxylin and eosin and examined by light microscopy, to detect any changes in accordance with PD (Taksdal et al. 2007). Data collation and statistical methods Site identification, together with laboratory results, was entered into Microsoft Excel and descriptive statistics performed by the use of Stata SE 10 (StataCorp). Site data were collected through questionnaires, with open ended and closed questions, which were distributed to the fish health personnel of each site. Follow-up phone calls or email contact was used where required. The questionnaires collected information relating to the fish stock (smolt strain), sea transfer data (peak stocking numbers, well boat information) and site parameters [previous PD diagnosis (2004 or later), fallowing duration prior to stock transfer, stock movement during production cycle, cage type]. Additional monthly production data on stock numbers, average weights and mortalities and losses were acquired through a national production database (confidential data, not openly accessible). Seaway distances to nearest slaughter plant and vessel fairways were calculated as described by Kristoffersen et al. (2009), as were the infection pressure values. Analysis of mortality levels and duration of elevated mortality following PD was performed. Data were analysed using a Cox proportional hazards model to attempt detection of possible risk factors associated with a positive PD status of the population at the site. The time variable was defined as the number of weeks between seawater transfer and the detection of SAV or PD (grouped and termed PD-positive sites) or from seawater transfer until the time of collection of the last negative sample (PD-negative sites). The failure variable was the classification of the site as M D Jansen et al. SAV and PD in Norway 2006–2008 Journal of Fish Diseases 2010, 33, 391–402 Table 3 Potential predictor variables analysed for association with sites positive for salmonid alphavirus (SAV) and pancreas disease (PD) in the endemic PD area Predictor variable Variable type Description Smolt strain Categorical Peak stocking numbers Dichotomous Well boat transfersa Previous PDa Fallowing durationa Dichotomous Dichotomous Dichotomous Stock movement Cage typea Vessel fairways Slaughter planta Infection pressure Dichotomous Dichotomous Continuous Continuous Continuous Smolt strain stocked. Three common smolt strains and two minor strains, or mixed populations stocked. Re-categorized into three common strains and a minor/ mixed group. Peak number of fish stocked at the site. Stocking below or above 600 000 salmon at peak stock numbers. Re-categorized from continuous on data distribution. Stock transferred with £2 or ‡3 well boat shipments. Previous PD diagnosis on site from 2004 Fallowing duration prior to stock transfer, fallowing period £12 weeks or >12 weeks. Stock moved between sea water sites during production cycle Use of compact or polar cages at site Distance between site and main vessel fairways Distance between site and nearest salmon slaughter plant Infection pressure based on distance to nearest site(s) with PD a Factors with P £ 0.2 in univariable analyses, but without significant association in multivariable analysis (P £ 0.05). PD positive. The categorical predictor variables smolt strain and number of well boat transfers were re-categorized into a reduced number of possible categories to enable statistical evaluation. One continuous predictor variable (fallowing duration) was converted to a dichotomous variable for the same reason. Categorisation was performed based on data distribution and biological meaningfulness. The complete set of assessed predictor variables is shown in Table 3. An initial univariable analysis, using P £ 0.2 as criteria for further inclusion, was performed. For the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, the inclusion criterion was P £ 0.05. Maps The data set was joined together with a file of all geographical coordinates for aquaculture sites in Norway (available at http://fiskeridir.no/register/ akvareg) in Arc View 9.3 (ESRI) and maps showing site locations and SAV/PD status generated. Results Evaluation of sample pooling The Ct values obtained from pooled samples were compared to those from the individual analyses of the same sample. The effect of sample pooling showed that individual samples with Ct values below 35 (Ct range individual samples 30.1–35.0) had a pooled sample viral RNA load that remained within the detection limit of the real-time RT-PCR 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 396 in all samples. For individual samples with a Ct value above 35 (Ct range individual samples 35.5– 40.0), half of the samples (seven of 14) failed to give a Ct value in 1/5 pools. Freshwater sites All samples from 44 freshwater sites were found negative for SAV when analysed by real-time RTPCR using the described E1 primer. For the two remaining sites, the initial analyses yielded inconclusive results on one and three pooled samples, respectively. Following repeated analyses of all individual samples, using both E1 and nsP1 primers, no SAV was detected. Blood samples and tissue samples from four freshwater sites were analysed. These freshwater sites supplied smolts to four seawater sites with SAV detected or PD diagnosed approximately 2 months post-seawater transfer. These four freshwater sites were not the same as those yielding inconclusive results on the real-time RT-PCR analyses. No antibodies against SAV were detected in the blood samples from these four freshwater sites. Histopathology performed on tissue samples from the same four freshwater sites revealed no changes in accordance with PD. Seawater sites In total, SAV was detected by real-time RT-PCR in samples collected from 23 of the 36 study sites within the endemic region, equalling 63.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) 46.2–78.7] of these sites (Fig. 1). No SAV was detected in samples from the 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 397 PD Dx* 6/12 10/12 1/12, 1a 12/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 Real-time RT-PCR (positive/ examined) 0/45 5/30 0/30 6/30 – – – 0/30 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 0/30 Serology (positive/ examined) Cohort samples 2 months post-transfer 0/10 2/9 0/10 9/10 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Histopathology (positive/ examined) PD PDb Dx* Dx* 7/18 9/9 0/12 12/12 No samples 12/12 No samples 8/8 12/12 0/12 0/12 No samples 0/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 0/12 – No samples 0/30 – No samples – No samples No samples – – – No samples – – No samples – – – – – – No samples 0/15 0/10 No samples 0/10 1/10 No samples – No samples No samples – – – No samples – – No samples – – – – – – No samples – 6/6 39/40 No samples 6/6 5/6 6/6 5/6 3/6 4/12 No samples 4/4 PD PD PD PD PD PDd PD No samples 3/6 6/6 No samples 11/12 No samples 5/6 4/6 0/5 4/6 PD PD PD PD PD PD PD 3/20 0/5 1/5 0/5 0/5 0/5 0/5 20/30 28/30 16/30 25/30 0/30 0/30 No sample 0/5 4/40 0/5 2/5 1/5 1/5 1/5 3/10 Histopathology (positive/ examined) 23/30 35/40 23/30 30/30 21/30 22/30 11/30 53/60 Serology (positive/ examined) Real-time RT-PCR (positive/ examined) Histopathology (positive/ examined) Real-time RT-PCR (positive/ examined) Serology (positive/ examined) Cohort samples at slaughter Cohort samples 8 months post-transfer PD PD PD PD PD SAVc PD SAVc SAVc PD PD PD PD PD PD PD PD PD PD PD PD Final site status PD, pancreas disease; Dx*, diagnosis of PD, diagnosed independently of the scheduled project samples by regular diagnostic procedures at the fish farm, with the timing shown relative to the cohort sample collections; –, analysis not performed. a SAV detected in a single individual sample. b PD diagnosis at 8 months post-transfer. c SAV only detected, no diagnosis of PD. d PD diagnosis on slaughter samples. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Analysis/ site number Sampling point Table 4 Laboratory results for 23 seawater sites found salmonid alphavirus (SAV)-positive in the cohort study in Norway 2006–2008 Journal of Fish Diseases 2010, 33, 391–402 M D Jansen et al. SAV and PD in Norway 2006–2008 M D Jansen et al. SAV and PD in Norway 2006–2008 Journal of Fish Diseases 2010, 33, 391–402 15 sites located outside the endemic region. The proportion of SAV-positive pooled samples varied between sites and sampling points. The cumulative incidence of PD throughout the production cycle for SAV-positive sites was 87% (95% CI 70.5– 98.5) or 20 of the 23 sites. Based on the three predefined sampling points and recorded diagnosis of PD, the first time point for detection of SAV varied from 11 to 81 weeks post-sea transfer (n = 23). In four sites (sites 1, 3, 8, 9, Table 4), SAV was detected in study samples prior to a PD diagnosis. The elapsed time between SAV detection in study samples and diagnosis of PD ranged from 18 to 71 weeks. PD was diagnosed from 18 to 84 weeks post-seawater transfer [mean 53.3 (16.7) n = 20]. Three sites (sites 18, 20, 21, Table 4) that were SAV-positive without a subsequent diagnosis of PD had SAV detected on samples collected at slaughter, 66, 71 and 81 weeks post-sea transfer, respectively. The four sites found SAV-positive by real-time RT-PCR 2 months post-sea transfer (sites 1, 2, 3, 4, Table 4) had their blood samples analysed for specific antibodies against SAV, with two sites (sites 2, 4, Table 4) showing SAV neutralization. Two additional sites with samples assessed (sites 8 and 23, Table 4) showed no neutralization. All slaughter blood samples were assessed, and all sites with SAV detected by real-time RT-PCR, except two (sites 20, 21, Table 4), had samples showing SAV neutralization. One site with no SAV detected throughout the study showed SAV neutralization in a single sample at slaughter (data not shown). From the four seawater sites found SAV-positive 2 months after seawater transfer, histopathological examination revealed two sites with severe loss of exocrine pancreatic tissue, cardiomyocytic necrosis and/or heart inflammation and inflammation in red skeletal muscle. Such changes were also detected in all the following samplings, although in fewer individuals (sites 2, 4, Table 4). For site four, it is worth recording that although PD was diagnosed in our study samples collected 2 months after seawater transfer, the clinical outbreak of PD at the farm was first discovered by the regular fish health service in May 2007, 1 year after seawater transfer. This contrasts with site two where PD was diagnosed independently of the present study already prior to our first scheduled sampling. In slaughter samples, changes characteristic for PD were detected in samples from a total of eight of 16 assessed sites (Sites 1, 3, 4, 6, 10, 14, 17, 23, Table 4). 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 398 1.00 SAV/PD negative sites SAV/PD positive sites 0.75 0.50 0.25 2 0.00 0 20 1 40 112111 11 1 60 80 100 Weeks post seawater transfer Figure 2 Kaplan–Meier failure graph showing the proportion of seawater sites diagnosed with salmonid alphavirus (SAV) infection or pancreas disease (thick line with stepwise increase) versus the time post-seawater transfer. The flat lower line shows the censoring times and numbers censored (indicated by a hash and the number) for the remaining, SAV-negative sites within the endemic region. Epidemiological observations The gradual increase in the number of seawater sites with positive SAV or PD status in the endemic area is shown graphically in a Kaplan–Meier failure graph (Fig. 2). Mortality levels following a PD diagnosis varied greatly between populations. The mean percentage PD-related mortality was 6.9% (7.06) (range 0.7–26.9), while the mean duration of increased mortality rates (from elevation of mortality from background level until return to background level) following PD diagnosis was 2.8 months (1.11) (range 1–6). Average fish weight at time of PD diagnosis ranged from 461 to 5978 g. Several potential risk factors were tested for association to PD outbreak. Fallowing duration, number of well boat transfers, cage type, distance to nearest slaughter plant and previous PD at the site all showed P £ 0.2 in univariable analyses, but did not show any significant association to PD outbreaks in a multivariable model (P < 0.05) (Table 3). Discussion Salmonid alphavirus was not detected in any of the smolt tissue samples from 46 freshwater sites throughout six counties along the Norwegian coastline. Additional sample evaluation of antibody presence and histopathological changes from four selected freshwater sites (which supplied stock to four seawater sites with SAV detected by real-time RT-PCR approximately 2 months post-seawater Journal of Fish Diseases 2010, 33, 391–402 transfer) was negative. This is in accordance with results obtained from the testing of 1223 randomly selected smolts from 15 different freshwater sites, conducted by a commercial salmon farming company using real-time RT-PCR (analysed by PatoGen AS, Norway), with three samples found positive for the vaccine strain SAV1 only (O. Breck, personal communication). Throughout the study period, no SAV was detected in samples from study sites outside the endemic region. No seawater sites were detected with SAV or PD in the nonendemic area, underlining the fact that the risk of contracting SAV infection is far lower in this region than in the endemic region where SAV was detected in samples from 64% of the studied sites. All SAVpositive seawater sites stocked fish that had been sampled in the freshwater phase, except one which was diagnosed with PD on diagnostic samples at slaughter (site 22, Table 4). Two sites found SAVpositive at the first sampling showed no detectable seroconversion (sites 1, 3, Table 4) indicating a recent infection, as antibodies against SAV can be found from days 10–16 post-infection (McLoughlin, Nelson, Rowley, Cox & Grant 1996). These results indicate no freshwater phase involvement in the SAV and PD status of the studied seawater sites. The observed time range of 18–84 weeks from sea transfer until the development of clinical disease was more prolonged than previously reported (9– 43 weeks) (Munro et al. 1984; Poppe et al. 1989; Murphy et al. 1992; Crockford, Menzies, McLoughlin, Wheatley & Goodall 1999; McLoughlin et al. 2003; Brun et al. 2005; Seim 2007). For the early outbreaks, this may be because of an improved effect of preventive measures, while for the later outbreaks it was likely influenced by the ability of this study to follow several sites throughout the entire production cycle, including sampling and evaluation at slaughter. The gradually increasing number of studied seawater sites found SAVpositive with increasing time at sea, suggests the infection occurs in seawater. In this study, no association between the study sitesÕ SAV/PD status and the measured risk factors were detected, despite previous studies having found a varying degree of association between PD and a range of risk factors (Wheatley et al. 1995; McLoughlin et al. 2003; Brun et al. 2005; Rodger & Mitchell 2007; Kristoffersen et al. 2009). The lack of association in this study between site status and infection pressure, contrary to the findings of Kristoffersen et al. (2009), is likely related to the smaller sample size 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 399 M D Jansen et al. SAV and PD in Norway 2006–2008 in this study, as the sites used in this study were effectively a subset of those used by Kristoffersen et al. (2009). The studied sites constitute only a small proportion of the number of sites in operation in Norway and diagnosed with PD during the 2006–2008 production cycle. This, together with the possible lack of ability to measure explanatory variables at a more detailed level, may explain the lack of association. The observed mortality levels and duration of elevated mortality were within the ranges previously reported (Wheatley et al. 1995; Crockford et al. 1999; McLoughlin et al. 2003; Brun et al. 2005; Rodger & Mitchell 2007). The large variation in average fish weights at time of PD diagnosis was a result of the wide range in the timing of disease occurrence throughout the production cycle. All SAV-positive seawater sites developed PD, with the exception of three sites which had SAV detected by real-time RT-PCR at slaughter. For these sites, no PD was suspected by the site management. These results indicate that once the population has become SAV infected, disease is highly likely to develop if the fish are given adequate time at sea post-infection. Although no permanent subclinical status was seen, as reported for a Scottish salmon population infected by SAV (Graham et al. 2006), the prolonged time sometimes elapsing between SAV detection and observed clinical disease is noteworthy. It may be related to fish-, management- or site factors, or a combination of these. It could also be attributed to a delay in the diagnosis because of a late request of diagnostic visits. This latent infection and the variation in incubation time pose a real risk for transmission of virus to uninfected populations. Such risk can be reduced by following strict hygiene measures, for example related to well boat transport and stock movement, as well as through close monitoring of sites within high-risk locations. One blood sample of 90 from one seawater site was found to neutralize SAV, while tissue samples failed to give a Ct value on real-time RT-PCR analysis, nor were any histopathological changes consistent with PD detected. The blood plasma from this single fish could have contained unspecific viral inhibitor(s) against SAV as has previously been shown to occur for infectious pancreatic necrosis virus (IPNV) (Park & Reno 2005). This is, however, assumed to be rare in salmonid blood, following a lack of such findings for other sites and absence of reports of this phenomenon from other Journal of Fish Diseases 2010, 33, 391–402 serological studies of SAV (Graham et al. 2003; Graham, Jewhurst, Rowley, McLoughlin, Rodger & Todd 2005). A prospective, longitudinal cohort study design was chosen to allow the entire production cycle to be studied, ensuring an accurate determination of exposure status for both the case- and the control sites. In this study, no difference was observed in the SAV status at each sampling point between the study group and the on-site control group, with the exception of two sites (sites 1, 3, Table 4). The lack of seroconversion at the initial sampling at these two sites indicates recent infections, and likely accounts for the difference in SAV status between the groups at the same site. The overall finding, that multiple cages are being affected within a short period of time, corresponds to the results obtained from longitudinal studies of other sites in Norway (M.A.Wasmuth & A.B. Olsen, personal communication). Our data were compared to the NVI diagnostic database and reports from each site with respect to diagnosed or suspected PD. No sites recorded SAVnegative in this study had diagnosed or suspected PD. With only three scheduled sampling points throughout the seawater phase, the time of infection could not be calculated more accurately. Each site could have been infected at any time between the last negative sample and the sample collection in which SAV was first detected. However, the inclusion of any results from diagnostic investigations for each study site increased the reliability of the estimates, by taking into account farmer and fish health personnel observations, and in some cases adding an additional sample collection point. The most evident effect of the pooling strategy on the results of the real-time RT-PCR analyses was observed in samples with the lowest RNA viral load. The decreased sensitivity of 1/5 pooling of samples does not affect the real-time RT-PCR result when using samples with individual Ct values lower than 35. Our pooling strategy may have given false negative results if individual samples with viral RNA load close to the detection limit of the realtime RT-PCR were examined. In our pilot study, half the samples with an individual Ct value above 35 had a viral RNA load that failed to be detected when analysed in pools. This decrease in sensitivity has been noted previously in other studies evaluating the effect of pooling sample material (Vandenbussche, Vanbinst, Vandemeulebroucke, Goris, Sailleau, Zientara & De Clercq 2008). In this study, any pooled samples with inconclusive results 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd 400 M D Jansen et al. SAV and PD in Norway 2006–2008 (giving Ct values ‡40 or an anomalous curve shape) were re-analysed individually with two different primers, in an attempt to determine their true SAV status. After the onset of our study, others have shown the heart ventricle to be more optimal for SAV detection than mid-kidney (Andersen, Bratland, Hodneland & Nylund 2007). However, we believe that the decreased sensitivity and risk of false negative results because of our method has partly been compensated for by the testing of some samples individually, as well as the inclusion of a large number of samples overall from each site. The value of real-time RT-PCR technology for SAV detection as a population screening tool has been described previously (Graham et al. 2006), and its consistency was further demonstrated in this study. Only two sites had differing SAV status of the sampled groups (one without SAV detected at the second seawater sampling, the other with differing cages being detected SAV-positive on repeated samples), which may suggest the sample size used was occasionally too small to detect the agent. This study was designed with a sample size to allow, with 95% probability, detection of SAV in a population with an expected prevalence of the agent of 5%. It is possible that the SAV prevalence at these sites was below this level at the time of sampling, as the sample submissions for these sites were complete. The overall very good consistency found between real-time RT-PCR, serology and histopathology, as well as results from routine diagnostic work, in this study indicates method reliability, and possibly reduces the impact of borderline sample sizes. In our study, SAV was not detected in freshwater or in seawater sites outside the region considered endemic for PD. No evidence was found for subclinical SAV infections without subsequent development of PD. The pattern of an increasing number of seawater sites with SAV detected and PD diagnosed with increased time at sea, together with the epidemiological observations, suggests that infection most likely occur after seawater transfer through horizontal transmission. Acknowledgements This work was funded by The Norwegian Research Council, The Fishery and Aquaculture Industry Research Fund and Marine Harvest Norway AS. 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