The Difficult Trade-Offs of Green
Energy
Mark Jaccard
School of Resource and Environmental Management
Simon Fraser University
November, 2009
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Green energy
– a meaningless term?
We easily fall for “good guy – bad guy” terms like green consumerism, green
cities, green corporations, green energy – even green coal mining!
In reality, all energy options involve impacts and risks, and therefore tradeoffs when making energy supply decisions.
Issue #1
If someone says, “Option A has impacts so I oppose it,” ask:
(1) what is their Option B?
(2) by what criteria, with what weighting, do they compare A to B?
Possible criteria
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GHG emissions (increasingly dominant)
Local environmental impacts
Local social impacts and benefits
Financial costs and benefits
Robustness (performance under a range of uncertain futures)
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Energy options
trade-off analysis
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Using less energy:
the case of electricity
Issue #2
If someone says, we’ll just use less energy and we won’t have to
build anything, ask:
(1)
what are the drivers of electricity use? (see chart)
(2)
how do we accelerate the rate of energy efficiency? (see
charts on policy effectiveness)
(3)
how do our efficiency efforts in BC compare to elsewhere?
(4)
what happens to electricity use when we reduce GHG
emissions?
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(1) Drivers of electricity use:
US household data
Source: Steve Groves, SFU – diverse data sources, 2008
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(2) Efforts to accelerate
efficiency with subsidies
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Kwh/m3
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average fridge efficiency
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must accelerate efficiency trend
1950s
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1960s
1970s
1980s
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1990s
2000s
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(2) Estimated effectiveness of
efficiency subsidies in Canada
Rivers and Jaccard, 2009
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(3) BC’s efficiency effort
compared to other jurisdictions
BC Hydro DSM methods and efforts (subsidies, info,
evaluations)
BC Hydro electricity pricing policies (inverted block)
BC efficiency regulations (equipment, buildings)
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(4) Effect of real GHG emissions
cap and pricing policies
A rapid increase in renewables (solar, wind, biomass, hydropower,
geothermal), but only with supporting policies and a mature
understanding by interest groups of difficult trade-offs.
A dramatic increase in energy conservation and efficiency
(technological and behavioural), but only with compulsory
regulations, pricing and growing public awareness.
A rapid shift toward electricity use for transportation (plug-in hybrid
and battery electric vehicles), for heating buildings and water
(heat pumps mostly), and for specific thermal applications in
industry.
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BC electricity consumption at
different GHG price levels
Source: CIMS simulation, 2009
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Sources of increased BC
electricity demand -$200 /tCO2
Source: CIMS simulation, 2009
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Ownership issues:
public versus private
BC’s electricity policy under the NDP in 1990s and Liberals in
2000s is to encourage independent power producers. Is this a
good idea?
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Financial risk management for ratepayers and taxpayers?
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Environmental protection and risk management?
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Socio-economic development, local rights and equity?
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Long-term benefits from favorable hydropower sites?
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Suggestions for green energy
trade-off analysis
Avoid a priori conclusions – like “small is beautiful” or “decentralized is better”
or “large hydro is better than small hydro” (or vice versa).
Establish clear objectives (economic, environmental, social) and evaluative
criteria (cost, local environmental impacts, global impacts, local
community interests, first nations’ interests, provincial interests).
Pay attention to cumulative effects. In the case of GHG emissions, this is
easy. In the case of river basin usage, more difficult.
Seek broad participation and consensus, but the latter may be difficult to
realize, even with the best intentions. So central authority will still be
necessary (BC Hydro acquisition planning, provincial environmental
assessment, BCUC test of prudency, provincial cabinet).
Don’t confuse trade-off analysis with policy questions that, while critically
important, are separate issues – energy efficiency versus new supply,
domestic energy security, public versus private ownership.
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