Welcome to the 2012 update
1
About the
programme
2
Why trends?
“Don’t explain the past,
predict the future”
•
A means to create a forwardlooking, outward-looking and
consumer-centric mindset
amongst decision makers in an
organisation.
•
Ensure business, category and
brand strategies remain
proactive to the changing
consumer landscape.
•
A source of inspiration to help
unlock new ideas for
profitable growth.
Stan Sthanunathan
VP Marketing Strategy & Insights,
The Coca Cola Company
In his AdMap article in 2011, he argues that research
should revolve around anticipating new opportunities, using
innovative approaches and turning insights into action now
“Visions and strategies
linked to a clear sense of
the future make us better
able to shape the future
we prefer”
Dr. Wendy L. Schultz
Fellow, World Futures Studies Federation
3
About the Consumer Lifestyle Trends Programme
The Consumer Lifestyles Trends
Programme is a foundation of
knowledge that allows the Irish
Food and Drinks Industry to better
predict and prepare for
consumers’ future needs and
wants.
Trends help companies to be more
outward-looking, futurefocused and consumer driven.
Using Trends helps companies to
anticipate change in consumers’
lives and not just be responsive.
Trends help organisations to make
sense of, and plan for, change
and also act as a catalyst for new
thoughts and ideas.
4
Objectives of the Consumer Lifestyle Trends
Programme
A framework for making
sense of change in these
volatile and fast-changing times.
An approach that brings
consumers to the heart of the
business decision making.
A driver of more futurefocused marketing.
A systematic approach to
identifying new opportunities
and threats.
A source of inspiration and a
spur for innovation.
5
This year’s programme provides both a consumer
and shopper perspective on the trends
Consumer
Shopper
•
Created for strategy and NPD /
Brand Positioning
•
Created for channel strategy and
for retail execution ideas
•
Tracks change in broader shifts in
consumer attitudes, values, and
behaviours
•
Explores specific shopper trends,
i.e. what is happening in store
and online
•
Considers how these will shape
needs within the food and drink
industry within Ireland and key
international markets
6
Identifying and
defining the trends
7
There is a lot of change going on in the world and
at times it can feel overwhelming
Related
sectors
Food &
Drink
Trends that are
current or close to
the category
Trends that are long–
term or distant
from the category
8
A trends framework provides clarity and strategic
focus on the change that will impact your business
Related
sectors
Food &
Drink
Trends that are
current or close to
the category
Trends that are long–
term or distant
from the category
9
How we identify and understand trends
An understanding of the macro forces shaping the
lives of consumers such as social, technological,
economic, environmental and political factors
Empirical evidence from a range of sources,
including Global MONITOR, a quantitative study
covering 21 markets and surveying 28,000
respondents
Top Down
Can we identify substantial
Drivers behind this trend that
suggest it will continue?
TREND
Validated
through research
Qualitative depth interviews in Ireland and GB
Global Streetscaping network: independent,
discerning, culturally connected individuals who
are spread throughout 40 countries and 60 cities
covering every continent of the world
Can we see evidence of this trend
at work in brand or human
behaviour or attitudes?
Bottom Up
10
Detailing a trend
Sub-trend
Driver
Driver
Driver
The forces and energies
shaping the trend
Sustained change
in consumer
attitudes, needs,
wants and
behaviours
Sub-trend
Sub-trend
Ways in which the trends
are playing out in today’s
world
11
Many sub-trends remain relevant, but have
evolved
We have told the story of how each sub-trend has
evolved through an evolution arrow
HOW IS THE SUB-TREND EVOLVING?
TOWARD
What are the defining characteristics of
the sub-trend today and what is emerging
at the edges?
FROM
What were the defining characteristics of this subtrend in 2009?
12
The updated Consumer Lifestyle Trends
“I want to manage my busy life and
make sure that I am at my best for
whatever the day presents”
“I want a balanced approach to health
and wellness, to have greater control
through the choices I can make”
“I want to get more enjoyment from
the simple things in life; to have
experiences that add more fun and
meaning”
“I like to pursue better value, to help
maintain my lifestyle and to get the
most from the money I have”
“I am mindful that I need to live
more responsibly; I want to make
better choices that make a difference
without having to compromise”
“I am looking for products and brands
that are real, authentic and honest,
because I know I can trust what's in
them and where they come from”
13
Applying the trends
14
Unleashing the power of trends
Good strategy comes from a
broad and deep
understanding of the
marketplace.
Adding a future perspective
to existing knowledge enables
marketers to successfully
manage the need to build
value today, whilst planning
for the needs and
opportunities of tomorrow.
Trends can provide this window
into the future, however, the
power of trends is rarely
unleashed by considering
them in isolation.
15
Linking the trends with key processes
•
Whilst many companies have established processes in place, these processes
rarely consider the way in which trends can enhance or redefine them. The
key processes Consumer Lifestyle Trends can be integrated into are:
– Short-term planning
– Formulating and exploring longer-term strategy
– Category / brand portfolio planning
– Optimising brand positioning and proposition development
– Ideation within an innovation process.
•
Please contact Bord Bia if you would like some guidance or help on how you
can effectively use the trends in these processes.
16
Appendix
17
About Global Monitor 2011
The Global MONITOR survey covers 28,000 respondents across 21 countries
Online and face-to-face surveying is combined
n = 27,092 approach
in a mixed-methodology
18
About Global Monitor 2011
Country
Sample Size
Survey Method
UK
n=2015
All Web
France
n=982
All Web
Germany
n=1082
All Web
Italy
n=1011
All Web
Spain
n=1000
All Web
US
n=2000
All Web
Ireland
n=998
All Web
Japan
n=1000
All Web
Australia
n=989
All Web
Canada
n=986
All Web
South Korea
n=987
All Web
Poland
n=1022
276 face to face and 746 web
Turkey
n=1031
229 face to face and 802 web
Brazil
n=1982
400 face to face and 1,582 web
Russia
n=1988
400 face to face and 1,588 web
Mexico
n=1007
208 face to face and 799 web
Colombia
n=1013
309 face to face and 704 web
Argentina
n=1014
297 face to face and 717 web
Saudi Arabia
n=978
200 face to face and 778 web
China
n=1288
1,983 face to face and 505 web
India
n=2504
2,012 face to face and 492 web
19
Global Monitor Unweighted sample sizes
For trended data presented in the Consumer Lifestyle Trends Programme
Country
2009
2010
2011
Ireland
n = 1004
n = 998
n = 998
UK
n = 1990
n = 1994
n = 2015
France
n = 1026
n = 989
n = 982
Germany
n = 990
n = 1001
n = 1082
Italy
n = 991
n = 971
n = 1011
Spain
n = 986
n = 966
n = 1000
US
n = 1967
n = 1972
n = 2000
Brazil
n = 2024
n = 1998
n = 1982
Russia
n = 1999
n = 2063
n = 1998
India
n = 2529
n = 2544
n = 2504
China
n = 2500
n = 2499
n = 2488
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How to interpret Global MONITOR data
•
All Futures Company projects are conducted in compliance with ISO 20252.
•
The 2011 Global MONITOR survey collected data from over 28,000 consumers, aged 16 and above, in 21
countries across the world. Average survey length was 45 minutes. The 2011 data were collected between
March 30th and May 26th 2011.
•
The survey used a mixed methodology, including face-to-face interviews to achieve a more representative
sample in emerging markets (although the sample in these markets should still be considered urban
representative rather than nationally representative).
•
All countries were weighted by age within gender targets from census counts. Region was used for all countries
except China and India, and was determined by fielding partners. Household income was used to weight all
countries except the UK, which used social class. Targets for income were set on the basis of advice from panel
providers and secondary sources.
•
Where possible, standardized data have been used to improve cross-country comparability, taking account of
how people in different countries use questionnaire scales differently (e.g., some countries tend to give more
positive answers than others). Please see the last two slides for details.
•
Further detail on sampling and methodology is available on request.
•
Year on year tracking averages include all those countries which were present in every year the question was
asked:
–
15 country tracking average (questions asked since 2008): Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan,
Mexico, Russia, Spain, Turkey, U.K., U.S.A.
–
17 country tracking average (questions asked since 2009): Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Ireland,
Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, U.K., U.S.A.
–
20 country tracking average (questions asked since 2010): Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, France,
Germany, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Spain, Turkey, U.K., U.S.A.
21
Notes on Global MONITOR data standardization
Standardization process for 5-point agreement and importance scales
•
To control for scale usage biases across and within countries, data are shown using row-standardized data for
all 5-point scales in the survey.
•
Global MONITOR primarily uses 5-point scales for attitudinal questions, providing a robust array of topics from
which to build the row-standardization analysis.
•
The row-standardization process originally established with Global MONITOR in 2008 was as follows:
•
A series of factor analyses were executed across all 5-point attitude scales used in the survey so that no single
topic area of the survey overly influenced the response bias correction.
•
The highest-loading items from each factor were removed before running another factor analysis on the
remaining items. These highest-loading factor items from this series of analyses comprised a correction set of
items for which a mean and standard deviation were calculated for each survey respondent.
•
The respondent’s mean score for the correction items was subtracted from their score on each of the 5-point
scale items.
•
These differences were then divided by the respondent’s standard deviation across the correction items,
producing a scale usage bias corrected score for each item.
•
Cut points were created for each point of the 5-point scales by matching the total percentage of responses at
each point in the scale across all of the correction items.
•
In 2009 a model was developed to predict the response bias mean and standard deviation scores by using
variables common to both the 2008 and 2009 surveys. Developed using the 2008 data, the model was then
applied to calculate the 2009-2011 response bias mean and standard deviation scores.
•
Extensive testing has revealed the model to be resilient in the face of changes in both questionnaire content and
countries surveyed.
22
Notes on Global MONITOR data standardization
(2)
Standardization process for 8-point values scales
•
Means and standard deviations were calculated for each survey respondent across the 46 value 8-point scale
items in the 2011 Global MONITOR survey.
•
The respondent’s mean score for the correction items was subtracted from their score on each of the 8-point
scale items. These differences were then divided by the respondent’s standard deviation across the correction
items, producing a scale usage bias corrected score for each item.
•
Note: 5-point and 8-point attitudinal scales comprise the vast majority of attitudinal scales in the Global
MONITOR survey, and only these two scale types were standardized. The standardization process utilized for
Global MONITOR requires a broad range of survey content to ensure that the strong feelings of an individual on
a single subject area don’t have a notable impact on the standardization.
Standardization changes for 2011
•
Please note that we made one key change in the presentation of the data this year. In previous years we
showed respondent-level standardized data on applicable attitudinal scale questions for cross-country
comparisons only.
•
We are now showing standardized data on applicable tables for within-country and cross-country comparisons.
You’ll find a notation on each table that is standardized, along with a description of the standardization process
at the end of each file. We hope you will find this change makes working with our data tables easier, as data
points will now match across all files regardless of whether they are intended for cross-country comparisons or
within-country analyses.
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About Global Streetscapes
• A global urban network of culturally connected individuals who
gather trends intelligence from around the globe to provide strategic
and creative direction for companies, brands and agencies.
• The Global Streetscapes network continuously captures visual
representations of the latest innovations in products, advertising
and consumer behavior.
• Global Streetscapes is a qualitative observational approach designed
to complement the vast amounts of quantitative data and insights
gathered through Global MONITOR, providing visual examples of
key trends in the global marketplace.
• With an extensive network of Streetscapers in 40 countries and 60
cities across the world, Global Streetscapes is designed to keep in
touch with the changing needs and behaviors of consumers.
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Global Streetscapes:
40 countries and 60 cities worldwide
Stockholm
Vancouver
Portland
SF
LA
San Diego
Montreal
Seattle
Toronto
Chicago
Detroit
Denver
New York City
Philadephia
Austin
Cairo
Miami
Moscow
Beijing
Guatemala City
Bogota
Seoul
Tokyo
Osaka
Shanghai
Hong Kong
Wuxi
Doha
Jeddah
Mexico City
Global Streetscapes
A global network of trend
spotters providing a
constantly updated feed
of fresh cultural,
consumer and marketing
insights
Helsinki
Amsterdam
Dublin
London
Berli Warsaw
n
Paris
Milan
Barcelona
Rome
Istanbul
Athens
Delhi
Dubai
Mumbai
Bangalore
Caracas
Merida
Lagos
Bangkok
Kuala Lumpur
Jakarta
Rio de Janerio
Sao Paulo
Santiago
Buenos Aries
Johannesburg
Cape Town
Sydney
Melbourne
Auckland
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