Original Paper Landslides (2012) 9:75–91 DOI 10.1007/s10346-011-0286-4 Received: 4 March 2010 Accepted: 12 July 2011 Published online: 28 July 2011 © Springer-Verlag 2011 Marc-André Brideau I Matthieu Sturzenegger I Doug Stead I Michel Jaboyedoff I Martin Lawrence I Nicholas Roberts I Brent Ward I Thomas Millard I John Clague Stability analysis of the 2007 Chehalis lake landslide based on long-range terrestrial photogrammetry and airborne LiDAR data Abstract On December 4th 2007, a 3-Mm3 landslide occurred along the northwestern shore of Chehalis Lake. The initiation zone is located at the intersection of the main valley slope and the northern sidewall of a prominent gully. The slope failure caused a displacement wave that ran up to 38m on the opposite shore of the lake. The landslide is temporally associated with a rain-onsnow meteorological event which is thought to have triggered it. This paper describes the Chehalis Lake landslide and presents a comparison of discontinuity orientation datasets obtained using three techniques: field measurements, terrestrial photogrammetric 3D models and an airborne LiDAR digital elevation model to describe the orientation and characteristics of the five discontinuity sets present. The discontinuity orientation data are used to perform kinematic, surface wedge limit equilibrium and threedimensional distinct element analyses. The kinematic and surface wedge analyses suggest that the location of the slope failure (intersection of the valley slope and a gully wall) has facilitated the development of the unstable rock mass which initiated as a planar sliding failure. Results from the three-dimensional distinct element analyses suggest that the presence, orientation and high persistence of a discontinuity set dipping obliquely to the slope were critical to the development of the landslide and led to a failure mechanism dominated by planar sliding. The threedimensional distinct element modelling also suggests that the presence of a steeply dipping discontinuity set striking perpendicular to the slope and associated with a fault exerted a significant control on the volume and extent of the failed rock mass but not on the overall stability of the slope. falling as snow was followed by warmer temperature and rainfall on December 3 and 4, 2007. Rain-on-snow events increase the “effective intensity” of a precipitation occurrence by combining the current rainfall with the water temporarily stored as snow on the slope. Runoff and infiltration are thought to have increased pore water pressures in the fractured rock mass and reduced the effective friction angle along discontinuity surfaces. The failed mass, with a volume in the order of 3 Mm3, entered Chehalis Lake, resulting in a displacement wave that destroyed three local campgrounds and removed the vegetation on the opposite shore of the lake to a maximum height of 38 m (Fig. 6). A preliminary assessment of the landslide conducted by BGC Engineering Inc. (2008), at the request of the BC Provincial Emergency Program, highlighted that the failure surface was controlled by pervasive planar structures which in places consisted of a fault with a fewcentimetres-thick gouge. Fresh tension cracks were observed up to 21 m behind the headscarp (BGC Engineering Inc. 2008). The damage caused by the landslide-generated displacement wave associated with the Chehalis Lake landslide has previously been briefly described by Geertsema et al. (2009) and Stephenson and Rabinovich (2009). The main objective of the research presented in this paper was to characterise the geology, rock mass quality, tectonic structures and the discontinuity sets present at the Chehalis Lake landslide. This information was then used as input in slope stability analyses to evaluate potential failure mechanisms for the event. A secondary objective was to integrate the information of discontinuities in the initiation zone based on several data collection techniques and to discuss the applicability and limitations of each technique. Keywords Terrestrial photogrammetry . LiDAR . Distinct element . Limit equilibrium Introduction The Chehalis Lake landslide occurred on December 4, 2007 on the northwest shore of Chehalis Lake in southwest British Columbia (Fig. 1). The rock slope failure and debris avalanche occurred on the southeast-facing slope of Mount Orrock in the Cohoe Creek drainage (Fig. 2). The headscarp is located at an elevation of ∼840 m asl (above sea level) while the lake shoreline is at ∼240 m asl. The headscarp is 210 m in width and the landslide travelled a horizontal distance of 950 m before entering the lake. The locations and cross-sections pre- and post-landslide are presented in Figs. 3 and 4, respectively. The slope failure was associated with an intense rain-on-snow event as illustrated by the meteorological data collected at the Agassiz weather station located approximately 30 km southeast of Chehalis Lake (Fig. 5). A cold period between November 30 and December 2, 2007 with precipitation Relevant previous landslide studies Meteorological conditions are regarded as one of the most common trigger for landslides (Sidle and Ochiai 2004; Highland and Bobrowsky 2008). Rain-on-snow event is a particular meteorological condition that has been discussed by Jakob and Weatherly (2003) as a contributing or triggering factor for debris flows in southwestern British Columbia. Similar patterns of pronounced cold and warm temperatures cycles coupled with precipitation prior to rock slope failure initiation have been noted in British Columbia (e.g. rockfall along transportation corridors: Peckover and Kerr 1977; Hope Slide: Mathews and McTaggart 1978, East Gate Landslide: Brideau et al. 2006; Clanwilliam Landslide: Brideau et al. 2008) and elsewhere around the world (e.g. Bjerrum and Jorstad 1968; Dunlop and Hutchinson 2009). There have been two other documented instances of landslides entering lakes and generating displacement waves Landslides 9 & (2012) 75 Original Paper Fig. 1 Location and regional geology map of the Chehalis Lake landslide (geology from Massey et al. 2005; faults from Thompson 1975) British Columbia N Landslide Study Area Chehalis Lake Legend Road Campground River Lake Geology Quartz diorite Andesitic volcanics Fault in British Columbia. In 1946, a rock slope failure on Mount Colonel Foster on Vancouver Island was triggered by an earthquake and entered the lake at its base (Evans 1989). The maximum run-up height of the displacement wave was measured at 51 m and was still evident in the mid-1980s. The second event occurred in 1998 at Troitsa Lake, in central British Columbia, where the surface material associated with a large fan delta failed into the lake, generating a 20-m-high Fig. 2 Overview of the Chehalis Lake landslide showing geomorphic features referred to in slope stability analyses. Slope angle along runout segment 1 was between 36° and 40° and between 30° and 32° along segment 2 N49.40o 1km W122.00o displacement wave that unsettled the lake for a period of 4 h (Schwab 1999). Landslides entering fiords and creating displacement waves have also been investigated in British Columbia (e.g. Bornhold and Harper 1998; van Zeyl 2009). Similar landslide-generated waves in lakes or reservoirs have been described elsewhere in the world (e.g. Plafker and Eyzaguirre 1978; Wang et al. 2004; Genevois and Ghirotti 2005; Grimstad 2005; Panizzo, et al. 2005). Cohoe Creek 840m.a.s.l. North gully wall South gully wall Rock slide Valley slope 1 Debris avalanche 440m.a.s.l. 2 Figure 7a 240m.a.s.l. 250m 76 Landslides 9 & (2012) N Fig. 3 Overview map with orthophoto showing the location of cross-sections, field stations and area covered by the terrestrial photogrammetry and COLTOP-3D analyses N A o cr cr o ss -s ec tio n2 B tio ec -s ss B’ n1 A’ W122.00o Legend Field measurements of discontinuities Location from which terrestrial photogrammetry acquired N49.46o Field geological mapping Area from which discontinuity data extracted using phogrammetry Area from which discontinuity data extracted from airborne-LiDAR using COLTOP-3D Road Topographic contour (10m interval) 300 150 0 Geology and rock mass description Chehalis Lake is located along the contact of late Jurassic island arc rocks of the Harrison Lake Formation and middle Jurassic to early Cretaceous rocks of the Coast Plutonic Complex (Mahoney et al. 1995). The area east of Chehalis Lake was mapped by Monger (1970) and Arthur (1986) while the areas north and south of the Chehalis Lake landslide were mapped by Thompson (1975) and Mahoney et al. (1995), respectively. Monger (1970) and Arthur (1986) observed that most of the Harrison Lake Formation consists of intermediate to felsic volcanic flows and pyroclastic rocks, while Thompson (1975) did not observe pyroclastic rocks in the southern portion of Chehalis Lake. Arthur (1986) noted that faults were difficult to distinguish in the field (due to the lack of bedding structures and the degree of hydrothermal alteration) but that several lineaments trending northwest–southeast were visible 300 Meters on aerial photographs. Thompson (1975) and Mahoney et al. (1995) included northwest–southeast trending faults in their geological maps. Thompson (1975) also noted the presence of a north-northeast (010o) trending fault (Fig. 1). Fieldwork conducted as part of this project found that the failure is located near an irregular intrusive contact between andesite volcanics and quartz diorite units (Fig. 1). The failed material is predominantly composed of quartz diorite. Xenoliths of volcanic material varying in size from a few centimetres to several metres occur in the quartz diorite on the northern edge of the landslide (Fig. 7a). Rock mass descriptions and discontinuity orientation measurements were obtained at six stations (Fig. 3). The rock mass quality was assessed using the Geological Strength Index (GSI) chart presented in Marinos and Hoek (2000) which is based on field Landslides 9 & (2012) 77 Original Paper a 1000 Cross-section 1 Legend Pre-failure topography (10m contour TRIM) Post-failure topography (1m LiDAR DEM) Elevation (m.a.s.l.) 800 600 400 A’ 200 0 400 600 800 1000m Fig. 6 Damage to trees caused by the displacement wave generated by the landslide entering Chehalis Lake. Photograph taken at the location of the former campground at the northern end of the lake (view toward north and landslide 1 km to the left of the photograph) Cross-section 2 760 720 680 640 B’ 600 560 0 100 200 300 400 500m Fig. 4 Longitudinal and transverse cross-sections of the pre- and post-failure topography (see Fig. 3 for the location of cross-sections). Note that the pre-failure topography has a lower resolution than the post-failure topography observations of the rock mass structure and the condition of the discontinuity surfaces. The application and limitations of the GSI to rock slope characterization have been discussed in Marinos et al. (2005) and Brown (2008). They discussed the importance of the scale of observation, the need for a good threedimensional outcrop and how excavation techniques can reduce the Fig. 5 Meteorological conditions leading up to the rock slope failure as recorded at the Agassiz weather station (located approximately 30 km from Chehalis Lake). Data from Environment Canada (2009) surface rock mass quality. The average GSI range obtained for the rock mass at the Chehalis Lake landslide was 50–60. This corresponds to a very blocky (four discontinuity sets or more) rock mass with good (rough) surface conditions (Fig. 7a). Field estimates of the intact rock strength of both the quartz diorite and andesite suggested a strong to very strong or R4 to R5 range (∼100 MPa) according to the strength classes defined in Hoek and Brown (1997). The rock mass had a fresh (WI to WII) weathering state with some localized zones of slight to moderate weathering (WII to WIII) conditions (ISRM 1978). Data collection Discontinuity orientation data were collected at the Chehalis Lake landslide using three different techniques. Upon increasing the scale of observation, they are: traditional field data collection near 70 14 12 10 Precipitation (water equivalent) Maximum temperature Minimum temperature 60 Temperature (oC) 8 50 Date of the Chehalis Lake landslide 6 4 2 0 28/11/07 -2 40 30 29/11/07 30/11/07 01/12/07 02/12/07 03/12/07 04/12/07 05/12/07 06/12/07 20 -4 10 -6 -8 78 Landslides 9 & (2012) 0 Total water equivalent precipitation (mm) Elevation (m.a.s.l.) b 200 Fig. 7 Discontinuity sets in the rock mass at the Chehalis Lake landslide. a Bedrock exposed below the initiation zone, b the initiation zone (view toward northwest) a DS5 DS1 DS4 DS2 DS3 1m b Valley slope North gully wall DS3 DS5 DS2 DS4 DS1 50 m the landslide, terrestrial photogrammetry of the headscarp area and colour-shaded relief maps from a 1-m resolution airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) of the area surrounding the landslide. The location and extent over which each of the techniques was applied are summarized in Fig. 3. The application of remote sensing techniques was particularly suitable to this case study due to the steep and inaccessible rock face at the headscarp and because the slope is still considered to be unstable. Field assessment Detailed engineering and structural geology mapping was undertaken in the lower part of the Chehalis Lake landslide (Fig. 3). The rock mass at each station was described according to the categories and terminology described in ISRM (1978). At each station, the authors evaluated the rock mass for the presence of discontinuity sets with similar orientations. Once a discontinuity set was identified, several measurements of its dip and dip direction were collected using a Clar-type compass. A similar approach is described in Mathis (1988) for cell mapping. The advantage of the field assessment method is that, in addition to getting information about discontinuity orientation, it can easily provide information about discontinuity infill and roughness and about the rock lithology and weathering grade. In turn, the disadvantages include limited access to outcrops and potential danger to the person collecting the data due to the unstable nature of the slope. Landslides 9 & (2012) 79 Original Paper Fig. 8 Detail of discontinuities identified in the initiation zone of the landslide based on the threedimensional model created from terrestrial photogrammetry (view toward west) DS5 DS4 DS3 DS2 DS1 50m Terrestrial photogrammetry Sturzenegger and Stead (2009a, b) and Sturzenegger et al. (2009) have demonstrated the applicability of long-range terrestrial photogrammetry to measure the orientation of discontinuities in large natural rock slopes and open pits. Their methodology was applied to the Chehalis Lake landslide by acquiring digital photographs using a Canon EOS 30D digital camera with 200mm focal length lens and processing the images obtained using Fig. 9 Discontinuities identified in the area surrounding the landslide based on the airborne LiDAR DEM coloured according to orientation using COLTOP-3D the 3DM CalibCam/Analyst software (Adam Technology 2009). Three-dimensional low-resolution models were created for the whole slope and higher-resolution ones for areas of interest in the headscarp area (Fig. 3). Registration of the photogrammetric models was achieved using the airborne LiDAR data to provide control points. The ground resolution of the three-dimensional models was calculated to be 38 cm (see Sturzenegger and Stead (2009a) for details). The discontinuity orientations were obtained N N DS4 W DS1 E DS2 S DS3 DS5 Road 100 m 80 Landslides 9 & (2012) Lake by fitting circles to the discontinuity surfaces identified in the 3D models of the headscarp (Fig. 8). The main advantages of the terrestrial photogrammetry technique are that information about the discontinuity orientation and persistence can be acquired with no need to directly access the slope and it is possible to obtain information from outcrops that cannot be physically accessed while its limitation include occlusion and image resolution bias (Sturzenegger and Stead 2009a, b). COLTOP-3D COLTOP-3D is a software package that uses high-resolution DEMs to create colour-shaded relief maps (Jaboyedoff et al. 2004). The pole of each DEM cell is assigned a unique colour based on its dip and dip direction orientation. This facilitates the visual determination of the orientation of planar features, such as long persistence discontinuities, fault scarps or landslide scarps (Fig. 9). This approach has previously been applied successfully to stability assessments of large rock slopes (e.g. Derron et al. 2005; Jaboyedoff et al. 2007; Pedrazzini et al. 2008; Jaboyedoff et al. 2009; Metzger et al. 2009; Oppikofer 2009; Oppikofer et al. 2009). The advantages and limitations of this technique are similar to those of the terrestrial photogrammetry listed in the previous section. Data interpretation Field measurements The orientation details of the discontinuity sets identified from the field measurements are summarized in Table 1 and Fig. 10a. Table 1 Summary of discontinuity sets mean orientation for each of the datasets acquired at the Chehalis Lake landslide Five discontinuity sets were identified (Fig 7). Based on its orientation and pervasiveness, discontinuity set (DS) 1 represents surfaces that could have formed as sheeting joints (e.g. Hencher et al. 2011), and together with DS2 they form the main failure surface of the Chehalis Lake landslide. Based on its long persistence and orientation approximately parallel to the north gully wall, DS3 appears to be associated with a fault that has the same orientation as the lineaments observed by Arthur (1986) in aerial photographs. The surface characteristics of each discontinuity set are presented in Table 2. The trace length of the DS5 was estimated to be very low (<1 m); this is attributed to its dip into the slope, creating overhanging surfaces that prevent the formation from extensive exposures. Terrestrial photogrammetry The stereonet of the poles to the fitted circles extracted from the f=200 mm lens models is presented in Fig. 10b. The spatial distribution of the discontinuities identified in the 3D models created from the terrestrial photogrammetry images is very similar to the discontinuities identified based on field measurements. The same five discontinuity sets can be identified (Table 1; Fig. 10b). Discontinuity sets 1 and 2 were extracted from the large concentration of discontinuities identified in the photogrammetry models based on the field observations. The biggest difference in the orientation of the discontinuity sets is in the dip of DS1 which is steeper in the photogrammetry models when compared with the field measurements (Table 1). The merging of DS1 and DS2 in the photogrammetry models is potentially due to three factors. Firstly, because the scale of observation in the photogrammetry is Dip/dip direction (o) N=number of measurements K=Fisher dispersion coefficient Discontinuity set Field measurements Terrestrial photogrammetry COLTOP-3D DS1 28/150 43/149 38/198 N=17 N=68 N=8 surfaces DS2 DS3 DS4 DS5 DS6 K=48 K=17 N=285 poles to DEM cell 59/135 61/146 67/149 N=13 N=37 N=8 surfaces K=21 K=55 N=165 poles to DEM cell 67/062 77/074 51/052 N=12 N=26 N=8 surfaces K=20 K=24 N=210 poles to DEM cell 74/200 76/222 64/246 N=16 N=19 N=8 surfaces K=21 K=44 N=286 poles to DEM cell 43/292 55/307 12/297 N=19 N=15 N=8 surfaces K=23 K=20 N=83 poles to DEM cell NA NA 20/101 N=1 surface N=226 poles to DEM cell Landslides 9 & (2012) 81 Original Paper N a DS4 DS2 DS1 DS5 DS3 W E DS5 DS4 DS3 DS2 DS1 N=102 poles to discontinuities S Field measurements N b DS2 DS4 DS1 DS3 W DS5 E DS4 DS3 DS2 DS5 DS1 N = 202 poles to fitted circles Photogrammetry line of sight S Terrestrial photogrammetry smaller (i.e. covers a larger area) than the field observations, DS1 and DS2 cannot be resolved as separate discontinuity sets. This effect was highlighted in Sturzenegger and Stead (2009a). Secondly, because the line of sight of the camera (trend/plunge of ∼30/140°) when acquiring the digital photographs was similar to the orientation of DS1 (mean dip/dip direction of ∼28/150° in field measurements), it could have resulted in an orientation bias (occlusion), as discussed in Sturzenegger and Stead (2009b) and Lato et al. (2010), that would “miss” the shallower members of DS1 (Fig. 10b). A third potential reason for the merging of DS1 and DS2 is related to the contouring routine and the increased sample size (field measurements: N=102; photogrammetry; f=200 mm; N=202). This effect of the sample size has been discussed by Stauffer (1966). COTOP-3D The airborne LiDAR data for the vicinity of the Chehalis Lake landslide was used to create a DEM with a resolution of 1 m. This DEM was used to identify 41 surfaces using COLTOP-3D which represented a total of 1,389 DEM cells (i.e. each individual surface is composed of multiple DEM cells; Fig. 10c). The spatial distribution of the surfaces compares well with the discontinuity data obtained from the field measurements and the photogrammetry models (Table 1). The dip direction of the DS1 from COLTOP-3D is slightly more southward than was measured from the other datasets. Discontinuity set five also has a noticeably shallower dip in the COLTOP-3D results. This is attributed to a directional bias as DS5 dips into the slope and is underrepresented in the airborne LiDAR data of the slope face on which the failure occurred. A sixth discontinuity set was observed in the stereonet from the COLTOP-3D results but not in the field measurements or photogrammetric datasets. Using the orthophoto of the area to assess the origin of this surface, it was tentatively attributed to the presence of small colluvial cones on the slope and was disregarded in further slope stability analyses. Slope stability analyses N c DS2 DS2 DS1 DS5 DS5 DS4 DS3 DS6 W DS3 E DS5 DS5 DS4 DS4 DS2 DS2 DS6 DS6 DS1 DS1 S N=1389 poles to DEM cells COLTOP-3D Fig. 10 Stereonets of the poles to discontinuity surfaces identified in a field measurements, b terrestrial photogrammetry and c COLTOP-3D. Lower hemisphere equal angle stereonets 82 Landslides 9 & (2012) Kinematic analysis A kinematic analysis is a rock slope stability test for identifying simple structurally controlled failure modes such as planar sliding, wedge failure and toppling. It takes into consideration discontinuity orientation, slope orientation and the friction angle along the discontinuity surfaces. The stereographic techniques for the kinematic analysis of these simple failure modes are described in Richards et al. (1978). To account for the variation of the topography in the immediate vicinity of the Chehalis Lake landslide, two slope orientations were considered in the kinematic analysis (valley slope at 35/115°, dip/dip direction; north gully wall at 40/185°). The friction angle along all discontinuities was assumed to be 30° based on the planar/undulating and rough discontinuity surface conditions. Table 3 and Fig. 11 summarize the results of the kinematic analyses performed using the three discontinuity datasets. Overall, the north gully wall slope orientation appears to be less stable than the valley slope. Sliding along DS1 out of the north gully wall is feasible in all datasets and marginally feasible out of the valley slope (Fig. 11a). Taking into consideration the natural variability of the discontinuity set orientations, wedge failures should be considered to be margin- Table 2 Summary of the discontinuity surface characteristics observed during the field investigation Discontinuity set Large (metre scale) roughness DS1 Planar Small (centimetre scale) roughness Trace length (m) Rough some smooth in quartz diorite 1–3 Rough some slickensided in andesite DS2 Planar and undulating Rough some smooth in quartz diorite 3–10 Rough some slickensided in andesite DS3 Planar Rough some smooth in quartz diorite 1–3 and 3–10 Rough some slickensided in andesite DS4 Planar Rough some smooth in quartz diorite 1–3 and 3–10 Rough some slickensided in andesite DS5 Undulating Rough some smooth in quartz diorite <1 Rough some slickensided in andesite ally feasible out of the north gully wall but less so out of the valley slope (Fig. 11b). Only random discontinuities were observed to fall within the toppling envelope along both the north gully wall and the valley slope (Fig. 11c). Surface wedge analysis Swedge is a limit equilibrium code (Rocscience 2006) that was used to evaluate the stability of surface wedges in the rock slope faces at the Chehalis Lake landslide. The combination analysis in Swedge uses a list of discontinuities specified by the user (e.g. discontinuity survey data) to calculate the factor of safety for each valid wedge intersection for a given slope face. To account for the topography in the immediate surroundings of the Chehalis Lake landslide, the same two slope orientations (valley slope at 35/115° dip/dip direction; north gully wall at 40/185°) considered in the kinematic analyses were used in the combination analyses. The analysis was performed using all three discontinuity orientation datasets for both slope orientations. The results, summarized in Table 4 and Fig. 12, strongly suggest that the north gully wall orientation is more susceptible to wedge failures for all discontinuity orientation datasets. With the exception of the analysis results for the north gully wall based on field measurements, all datasets have consistent percentages of valid wedge failures (Table 4). The discrepancy with the field measurements might be related to the smaller number of discontinuity orientations in that particular dataset compared to the other datasets. Overall, the results from the surface wedge analysis are consistent with those of the kinematic. Both methods suggest that the north gully wall is more prone to failure. The advantage of the surface wedge combination analysis is that it is capable of using the full dataset to account for the natural variability in discontinuity orientations at the site. Three-dimensional distinct element modelling The three-dimensional distinct element code 3DEC (Itasca 2008) was used to model the interaction between the jointed rock mass and the topography at the Chehalis Lake landslide. The 3DEC code represents the rock mass as a collection of three-dimensional blocks under static or dynamic loading. The strength of the material making up the blocks and bounding discontinuities are specified by the user. Large displacements and rotation along the discontinuities bounding the blocks are permitted. More information about 3DEC can be found in Cundall (1988) and Hart et al. (1988). In this paper, 3DEC was used to evaluate the influence of: (1) the mean discontinuity set orientations derived from the various techniques, (2) individual discontinuities and (3) variations in assumed friction angle along the discontinuities. Rigid block conditions were assumed for the analyses pre- Table 3 Summary of the kinematic analyses performed on the discontinuity datasets acquired at the Chehalis Lake landslide Failure mechanism Valley slope North gully wall Field measurements Terrestrial photogrammetry COLTOP-3D Sliding Feasible on DS1 Marginal on DS1 No Wedge Marginal on DS1/DS4 No No Toppling Marginal on random discontinuities Marginal on random discontinuities Marginal on DS4 Sliding Feasible on DS1 Feasible on DS1 Feasible on DS1 Wedge Marginal along DS1/DS3 Marginal along DS1/DS3 and DS1/DS4 Feasible along DS1/DS4 and marginal along DS1/DS2 Toppling Marginal on random discontinuities Marginal on random discontinuities No Landslides 9 & (2012) 83 Original Paper Legend pole to discontinuity intersection of two discontinuity sets N N N a DS2 Daylight DS4 envelope DS2 Valley DS1 E W W Daylight envelopes North gully DS3 DS3 DS1 DS4 Friction cone DS5 30o friction cone North gully DS2 DS4 DS1 Valley E W DS5 Daylight envelopes DS6 Friction DS5 cone Valley DS3 E North gully S S S sliding sliding sliding N N N b 30o friction circle Valley DS5 DS5 W North gully DS3 DS2 DS5 DS1 E DS4 W DS3 DS3 DS4 DS2 North gully E DS4 W E DS6 DS1 North gully DS2 DS1 Valley Valley S S S wedge wedge wedge N N N c Valley Slip limit W North Slip gully limit Toppling envelope S toppling Field measurements N = 102 E Valley W E W E Valley Slip limit North gully Slip limit Toppling envelope Toppling envelope Toppling envelope S toppling Terrestrial photogrammetry N=202 North gully Slip limit Toppling envelope Slip limit Toppling envelope S toppling COLTOP-3D N=1389 poles to DEM cells Fig. 11 Kinematic analysis conducted on the discontinuities a sliding, b wedge failure and c toppling failure mechanism for the field measurements, terrestrial photogrammetry model and COLTOP-3D. Lower hemisphere equal angle stereonets sented (i.e. the Chehalis Lake landslide is assumed to be a structurally controlled rock slope failure). The rock density and 84 Landslides 9 & (2012) discontinuity properties used in the 3DEC models are presented in Table 5 while a summary of the results obtained in Table 4 Summary of the surface wedge combination analyses performed on the discontinuity measurements obtained with the various data collection methods used the Chehalis Lake landslide Field measurements Valley slope Number of combinations 5,151 Number of valid wedges North gully wall 20,301 224 576 COLTOP-3D 963,966 31,378 Number of stable wedges 206 (92%) 564 (98%) 2,9579 (94%) Number of failed wedges 18 (8%) 12 (2%) 1,799 (6%) Number of combinations Number of valid wedges 5.151 20,301 195 1,442 963,966 64,161 Number of stable wedges 166 (85%) 875 (61%) 41,279 (64%) Number of failed wedges 29 (15%) 567 (39%) 22,882 (36%) a Analysis for valley slope 100% Unstable Stable 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Field Terrestrial photogrammetry Photogrammetry COLTOP-3D Discontinuity orientation dataset b Analysis for north gully wall 100% Unstable Stable 90% 80% 70% the various models considered in this study is presented in Table 6. A simplified geometry consisting of three planes (valley slope at 35/115° dip/dip direction, north gully wall at 40/ 185° and south gully wall at 40/080°), labelled in Figs. 2 and 13a, was used to approximate the average orientation of each slope. Discontinuity set orientations Figure 13 compares the calculated total displacement, contoured in metre, obtained after 30,000 numerical calculation steps in models with the a mean discontinuity set orientation based on the datasets acquired at the Chehalis Lake landslide. The threedimensional distinct element model associated with the field measurement data resulted in a large slope failure on the valley slope and the intersection between the valley slope and the north gully wall (Fig. 13a). The volume of the unstable mass (arbitrarily defined as the cumulative volume of blocks having a total displacement >1 m; Table 6) obtained in this scenario is approximately four times larger (11 Mm3) than the calculated volume based on aerial photograph interpretation (3 Mm3). The 3DEC model using the mean discontinuity set orientations obtained from terrestrial photogrammetry resulted in a small volume (0.17 Mm3) slope failure at the intersection of the valley slope and north gully wall (Table 6; Fig. 13b). The COLTOP-3D dataset did not result in a significant slope failure (Fig.13c); only very small blocks displayed any significant calculated displacement (Table 6). 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Field Photogrammetry COLTOP-3D Discontinuity orientation dataset Fig. 12 Cumulative bar graphs summarizing the percentage of stable and unstable wedges obtained for each dataset along the a valley slope and b north gully wall Influence of individual discontinuity set The influence of each discontinuity set on the slope stability conditions was assessed by creating five three-dimensional distinct element models that included only four discontinuity sets, with each of the five discontinuity sets being omitted in turn (Fig. 14). This series of models was built using the mean discontinuity set orientations obtained from the field measurements dataset since it is the one which resulted in the largest simulated slope instability. Where DS1 was omitted (i.e. the model assumed that only DS2, DS3, DS4 and DS5 were present), all three slopes were stable with only a few very small blocks moving more than 1 m (Fig. 14a; Table 6). This result highlights the critical role played by DS1 in the failure of the Chehalis Lake landslide. The models that did not include DS2 (Fig. 14b), DS4 (Fig. 14d) and DS5 Landslides 9 & (2012) 85 Original Paper Table 5 Rock density and discontinuity properties used in the three-dimensional distinct element models Material property Density (kg/m3) 2,700 Discontinuity properties Shear stiffness (GPa/m) 1 Normal stiffness (GPa/m) 5 o Friction angle ( ) 25 or 30 Cohesion (MPa) 0 Tensile strength (MPa) 0 (Fig. 14e) all resulted in similar maximum calculated total displacements and unstable volume masses (53 to 71 m and 7.3 to 8.0 Mm3; Table 6). Visually, the unstable areas in these three models (Fig. 14b, d, e) are similar to the equivalent model with five discontinuity sets (unstable volume of 11 Mm3; Fig. 13a), but the models with only four discontinuity sets had smaller volumes with an average of ∼7.5 Mm3. Finally, the model that did not include DS3 (Fig. 14c) resulted in a 1.7-Mm3 rock slope failure along the intersection of the valley slope and the north gully wall (Table 6). DS3 therefore plays an important role in the development of an unstable rock mass at the Chehalis Lake landslide. Assumed friction angle The previous 3DEC analyses were performed assuming a friction angle of 25°. The sensitivity of the slope stability conditions to the friction angle value was assessed by investigating a model with all five discontinuity sets using the mean orientation from the field measurements dataset, 40 m discontinuity spacing and an assumed 30° friction angle. The model with the higher friction angle value led to stable slope conditions with only small blocks moving more than 1 m (Table 6). Table 6 Summary of maximum total displacements and cumulative volumes of unstable blocks (blocks with total displacement greater than 1 m) obtained in threedimensional distinct element models 86 Landslides 9 & (2012) Discussion Discontinuity orientation datasets The three discontinuity orientation datasets acquired at the Chehalis Lake landslide all revealed similar distribution patterns (Fig. 10), although the mean orientation of the specific discontinuity sets varied (Table 1). This variation in orientation led to some differences in the basic slope stability analyses (kinematic and surface wedge), but the overall expected rock slope behaviour based on the various discontinuity datasets was similar. In the three-dimensional simulations, the orientation variations have a larger effect. Three-dimensional distinct element models based on the field measurements resulted in a large slope failure, while the one using the terrestrial photogrammetry dataset resulted in smaller slope failures. The model using the COLTOP-3D datasets resulted in stable slope conditions. These analyses highlight the fact that the stability of the blocks created by repeating discontinuity sets and the topography is sensitive to the evaluation of the mean discontinuity set orientation. The reasons for the variation in discontinuity set orientation are threefold. Firstly, the various techniques sampled different regions of the landslide and the adjacent area (i.e. geostatistical variation of sample; Fig. 3). The field measurements were collected at a few locations on the lakeshore and in the lower part of the failure zone due to access restrictions. The terrestrial photogrammetry was used to primarily map the headscarp (initiation zone) of the Chehalis Lake landslide. The discontinuity orientation data generated using COLTOP-3D were collected in the area surrounding the landslide. As a result, the different techniques sampled different (photogrammetry vs. field measurements) or several (COLTOP-3D) structural domains. Figure 15 conceptually illustrates that the dip angle of DS1 changes in the vertical direction within the slope. In reality, the variation of DS1 is three-dimensional as both the dip and dip direction change (stereonet in Fig. 15). To further demonstrate the spatial influence of the dataset, COLTOP-3D was used to extract discontinuity orientation from the point cloud created in the terrestrial photogrammetry three-dimensional model. The results show that Calculated maximum displacement (m) Cumulative volume with displacement >1 m (Mm3) Dataset Friction angle (o) DS not included Field 25 All included 57 Field 30 All included 13 Field 25 DS1 Field 25 DS2 53 8.0 Field 25 DS3 64 1.7 Field 25 DS4 57 7.4 71 3.9 11 0.00005 0.000003 Field 25 DS5 Photogrammetry 25 All included 3.3 0.17 7.3 COLTOP-3D 25 All included 7.9 0.00072 a Field measurements dataset, 40 m spacing North gully wall (m) South gully wall Valley slope b Terrestrial photogrammetry, 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 57 40 m spacing (m) 0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.29 c COLTOP-3D, 40 m spacing (m) 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 7.9 Fig. 13 Calculated total displacements, contoured in metre, for the threedimensional distinct element models using the mean orientation of the discontinuity sets based on a field measurements, b terrestrial photogrammetry and c COLTOP-3D datasets. A spacing of 40 m and friction angle of 25° was assumed on all discontinuity sets discontinuity sets DS1, DS2 and DS3 had a very similar orientation of the mean values obtained using the 3DM Analyst (Adam Technology 2009) software, while the dip direction of DS4 and the dip angle of DS5 differ by approximately 20° (Table 7). The results obtained when applying COLTOP-3D to the three-dimensional model created in the terrestrial photogrammetry are more consistent with the terrestrial photogrammetry dataset using 3DM Analyst (all of them sampling the headscarp area) than the discontinuity extracted from the airborne LiDAR DEM (sampling the area surrounding the landslide; Figs. 10 and 16; Tables 1 and 7).To fully assess the location/extent of structural domains, a systematic field survey in the various sections of the landslides and its surroundings would need to be undertaken. The second factor that may account for the variability in discontinuity set orientation is the relative accuracy of each of the different data collection methods. Sturzenegger and Stead (2009b) reported that variations in the order of ±4° for the dip and ±8° for the dip direction can be expected between field measurements and terrestrial photogrammetry discontinuity survey of the same area. The third factor influencing the mean discontinuity set orientation includes the biases associated with the different scales and viewing angles at which the data were collected. For example, the terrestrial photogrammetry was subject to occlusion (shadow zone) due to camera (or laser scanner) perspective (Sturzenegger and Stead 2009b; Lato et al. 2010) in the lower part of the failure plane orientation (DS1), while the COLTOP-3D data were based on the airborne LiDAR DEM which is based on data collected vertically and cannot resolve discontinuities dipping into the slope (e.g. DS5 at the study area). These three factors represent sources of uncertainty associated with the data collection methodology/processing and the structural model, all of which transfer into the slope stability analyses (Read 2009). Three-dimensional distinct element models Based on the limited direct field assessment, the discontinuity surfaces in the quartz diorite (Fig. 7a) were found to be planar/ undulating and rough while the discontinuities in the andesitic rocks were smoother. These general surface conditions were assumed to correspond to a friction angle of 30°, but the temporal association of the failure with the rain-on-snow meteorological event could reduce the mobilized effective friction angle. The 3DEC models demonstrated that a friction angle of 30° resulted in generally stable slope conditions, whereas a friction angle of 25° resulted in relatively large slope failures for a series of geometries (Table 6). This friction angle threshold (25° to 30°) is consistent with the dominant planar sliding failure mechanism along DS1 which has a mean dip of 28° based on field measurements. An increase of pore water pressure associated with rain-on-snow event could have lowered the effective friction angle below a critical threshold. The 3DEC model without discontinuity set DS3 (Fig. 14c) led to a slope failure whose location and volume most closely resemble the actual Chehalis Lake landslide, but since DS3 appears prominently in all the stereonet for all discontinuity orientation datasets (Fig. 10), it cannot simply be discounted. A review of outcrop-scale photographs at the northern edge of the landslide (Fig. 7a) showed DS3 surfaces with limited persistence, whereas photographs of the southern edge of the slope failure showed DS3 surfaces with a larger persistence (Fig. 8). These observations combined with the coincidence of very-high-persistence DS3 with gullies (COLTOP-3D Fig. 9) could represent the location of faults with limited persistence Landslides 9 & (2012) 87 Original Paper a DS1 not included b DS2 not included (m) (m) 0 5 10 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 53 0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.75 3.86 c DS3 not included d DS4 not included (m) (m) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 64 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 57 e DS5 not included (m) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 71 Fig. 14 Three-dimensional distinct element models investigating the influence of the individual discontinuity sets on the slope stability conditions. Models without a DS1, b DS2, c DS3, d DS4, e DS5. Plots are of calculated total displacement contoured in metre. A spacing of 40 m and friction angle of 25° were assumed for all discontinuity sets DS3 in between them. The northwest strike of DS3 corresponds with the northwest–southeast lineaments previously reported by Arthur (1986) and the faults mapped by Thompson (1975) 88 Landslides 9 & (2012) and Mahoney et al. (1995). A more detailed field investigation should be combined with a comprehensive analysis of the photogrammetric datasets to confirm this interpretation and to N Region sampled using terrestrial photogrammetry Fig. 15 Conceptual model illustrating how the field measurements and the photogrammetry datasets could represent orientation data collected in different structural domains W E DATASET S Field measurements Terrestrial photogrammetry Region sampled by field measurements characterise the variation of the persistence of the discontinuity sets over the landslide area. Discontinuity set DS1 was shown to be critical to the stability conditions of the modelled slopes. A variation of ±10° in the dip direction and ±15° in the dip between the field measurements and the terrestrial photogrammetry datasets results in a variation of one order of magnitude in calculated maximum total displacement and four orders of magnitude in cumulative unstable volume in the 3DEC models (Fig. 13; Table 6). Conclusions This paper presented the first detailed assessment of the failure mechanism for the Chehalis Lake landslide. Field observations indicate that the failure occurred at the intersection of the valley slope and a prominent north gully wall. The rock mass appears to have initially slid into the gully and was then subsequently redirected along the gully toward the lake. The Chehalis Lake landslide is also temporally associated with a rain-on-snow meteorological event wherein high pore water Table 7 Comparison between the mean orientation of the discontinuity set obtained from the terrestrial photogrammetry dataset using 3DM Analyst and COLTOP-3D software Discontinuity set Terrestrial photogrammetry using 3DM analyst (dip/dip direction) Terrestrial photogrammetry point cloud using COLTOP-3D (dip/dip direction) DS1 43/149 46/147 DS2 61/146 60/152 DS3 77/074 70/080 DS4 76/222 72/248 DS5 55/307 74/314 pressures could have provided the trigger for the rock slope failure. Discontinuity orientations were collected at the base of the landslide, in the headscarp and in the area next to the landslide using field and remote sensing techniques. The three discontinuity orientation datasets obtained all produced a similar fracture pattern with a minor variation in the specific orientation of the individual discontinuity sets. This variability was attributed to the different sampling locations, the accuracy of the different sampling techniques, the observation scale and view orientation biases and data interpretation limitations when processing different sample sizes. This highlighted the importance of combining field and terrestrial photogrammetry data to avoid sampling biases when defining the mean orientation of discontinuity sets. Kinematic analyses using the three datasets suggested that planar or wedge failures involving DS1 were the likely failure mechanisms. Surface wedge analyses suggested that the north gully wall was less stable than the valley slope. Three-dimensional distinct element modelling suggested that the Chehalis Lake landslide occurred due to specific interactions between the discontinuity sets and the topography. Based on these results, it appears that: (1) planar sliding was the dominant failure mechanism; (2) the mobilized effective friction angle along the discontinuities was less than 30° for the landslide to initiate, (3) the presence and orientation of DS1 is critical for the development of the slope failure and (4) DS3 has an important control on the volume and extent of the unstable rock mass but less so on its overall stability. Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank E. Fea and T. Sivak for their assistance in the field. Funding for the fieldwork was provided by BC Hydro and BC Ministry of Forests and Range. The airborne LiDAR data were commissioned and provided by BC Hydro. The authors would also like to acknowledge the editor and reviewers for their constructive comments which improved the paper. 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Brideau ()) School of Environment, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand e-mail: m.brideau@auckland.ac.nz Landslides 9 & (2012) 91