MIT
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Air Transportation
The Next 100 Years
Challenges and Opportunities
Prof. R. John Hansman
MIT Department of
Aeronautics and Astronautics
rjhans@mit.edu
MIT
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Flight Trajectories Departing YVR
January 9th 2003
MIT
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ü Trends
ü Challenges
ü Possibilities
Overview
MIT
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Fundamental Need for Travel
Global Travel Time Budget
5.0
African Villages in:
I Tanzania, 1986
II Ghana, 1988
4.5
Travel Time Budegt, h/cap/d
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
City Surveys:
1 Tianjin (China), 1993
2 Kazanlik (Bulgaria), 1965/66
3 Lima-Callao (Peru), 1965/66
4 Pskov (Former USSR), 1965/66
5 Maribor (Former Yugoslavia), 1965/66
6 Kragujevac (F. Yugoslavia), 1965/66
7 Torun (Poland), 1965/66
8 Gyoer (Hungary), 1965/66
9 Olomouc (Former CSFR), 1965/66
10 Hoyerswerde (Former GDR), 1965/66
11 Sao Paulo (Brazil), 1987
12 Sao Paulo (Brazil), 1977
13 Warsaw (Poland), 1993
14 6 Cities (France), 1965/66
15 Osnabruck (Germany), 1965/66
16 44 Cities (USA), 1965/66
17 Jackson (USA), 1965/66
18 Paris (France), 1976
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
Paris (France), 1983
Paris (France), 1991
Sendai (Japan), 1972
Sapporo (Japan), 1972
Kanazawa (Japan), 1974
Kagoshima (Japan), 1974
Kumamoto (Japan), 1973
Hamamatsu (Japan), 1975
Fukui (Japan), 1977
Niigata (Japan), 1978
Hiroshima (Japan), 1978
Osaka (Japan), 1980
Tokyo (Japan), 1980
Osaka (Japan), 1985
Tokyo (Japan), 1985
Cities No. 21-29 in 1987
Tokyo (Japan), 1990
Osaka (Japan), 1990
2.0
3
2
1.5
1
1.0
I
II
6
7
5
9
4
18
13
12
8
20
19
G
16
31 D B J H 17 K P R 35
22
N
33
21 23 25 29
32 T
30
M 36
E
F
14 15 24
28
C I
26 27
34
Q
National Travel Surveys:
A Belgium, 1965/66
B Austria, 1983
C Great Britain, 1985/86
D Germany, 1976
E Netherlands, 1979
F Great Britain, 1989/91
G Finland, 1986
H Netherlands, 1987
I France, 1984
J Germany, 1982
K Netherlands, 1989
L USA, 1990
M Germany, 1989
N Switzerland, 1984
O Switzerland, 1989
P Australia, 1986
Q Singapore, 1991
R Norway, 1985
S Norway, 1992
T Japan, 1987
11
10
0.5
A
O
S
L
0.0
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
GDP/cap, US$(1985)
Source: Schafer and Victor (2000)
MIT
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Fundamental Need for Travel
Global Total Mobility
Per Capita Traffic Volume, pkm
1000000
100000
Industrialized Regions
North America
Western Europe
Pacific OECD
Target Point
Reforming Regions
Eastern Europe
Former Soviet Union
10000
Developing Regions
Latin America
Middle East & North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
Centrally Planned Asia
South Asia
Other Pacific Asia
1000
100
100
1000
10000
100000
GDP/cap, US$(1985)
1000000
Source: Schafer and Victor (2000)
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World Scheduled Passenger
Traffic
World Rrevenue Passenger-Kilometers of Scheduled Service
3500
3000
RPK (bn)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Source: ICAO
MIT
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Passenger Traffic by Region
Scheduled Revenue Passenger-Kilometers by Region
1400
1200
North America
1000
RPK (bn)
Europe
800
Asia and
Pacific
Latin America
& Caribbean
Middle East
600
400
Africa
200
0
1975
Source: ICAO
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
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Historical Demand Trends with Economy
ICAT
US GDP vs. RPMs: 1954-2001
Source: US BEA and BTS data; Recession data from National Bureau of Economic Research
Original plot by Charlie Keegan, FAA
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Conceptual Model
Direct / Indirect / Induced employment effects
Economy
Travel/Freight
Need
Financial Equity/
Debt Markets
Economic Enabling Effect
(Access to people / markets / ideas / capital)
Demand
Supply
Pricing & Schedule
Airlines
Revenue/Profitability
Air Transportation System
Vehicle Capability
NAS
Capability
MIT
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Air Freight by Region
Freight Tonne-Kilomters by Region
45
40
35
North America
FTK (bn)
30
Europe
25
Asia and
Pacific
20
Latin America
& Caribbean
15
Middle East
Africa
10
5
0
1975
Source: ICAO
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
MIT
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World Population Distribution
and Air Transportation Activity
North America
38% Pax
27% Cargo
Europe
27% Pax
29% Cargo
~40 Airlines
~4100 Airports
~80 Airlines
~2400 Airports
Latin America/
Caribbean
5% Pax
4% Cargo
~40 Airlines
~580 Airports
Africa
2% Pax
2% Cargo
~20 Airlines
~300 Airports
Population Source:http://www.ciesin.org/datasets/gpw/globldem.doc.html
Air Transport Source: ICAO, R. Schild/Airbus
Asia/
Pacific
25% Pax
34% Cargo
Middle East
3% Pax
4% Cargo
~12 Airlines
~230 Airports
~60 Airlines
~1800 Airports
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Hub and Spoke vs Direct
Networks
Completely Connected Network = 2(N-1) Flights
(eg., 50 Airports, 98 Flights)
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Fully Connected Network
Completely Connected Network = N(N-1)
(eg., 50 Airports, 2450 Flights)
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Demand Drives Frequency
Decreasing Aircraft Size
Ten Major US Carriers - Excludes Regional Jets
Average Seats Per Departure
172
171
170
169
168
167
166
165
164
Ten Majors
163
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Source: DOT Form 41 Data
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ERJ 145 (50 seats)
Emergence of Regional Jets
CRJ 200 (50 seats)
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U.S. Regional Jet Growth
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
19
95
19 Q1
95
19 Q3
96
19 Q1
96
19 Q4
97
19 Q2
97
19 Q4
98
19 Q2
98
19 Q4
99
19 Q2
99
20 Q4
00
20 Q2
00
20 Q4
01
20 Q2
01
20 Q4
02
20 Q2
02
20 Q4
03
Q
2
0
Source: FAA registration data from 1995 until the present
CRJ700 totals
CRJ200 totals
CRJ100 totals
EMB135 totals
EMB145 totals
BAE145 totals
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Regional Jet Deployments
May 1998
July 2000
August 2002
August 2002
Source: OAG and ETMS data, 1998-2002.
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January 1998
DFW Departures
January 2003
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Eclipse Jet
Proposed - Small Turbofan
Passenger Aircraft
Cessna Mustang
Proposed New Aircraft will Extend the Size Spectrum of the Air Transportation Fleet
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Proposed
Large Efficient Transport
Proposed New Aircraft will Extend the Size Spectrum of the Air Transportation Fleet
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New Operational Class Unmanned Air Vehicles
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Safety Trends
Source: Boeing 2001 Statistical Abstract
Impact of September 11
US Domestic RPMs
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Traffic (in billions of RPMs)
50
45
40
35
30
25
2000
2001
2002
2003
20
January
April
July
October
Source: ATA data
Source: ATA Monthly Passenger Traffic Report
MIT
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Estimated 484 Aircraft Parked/Retired
Worldwide
Effective Modernization of the Fleet
120
100
80
60
40
20
(Source: Avsoft)
Source: Katherine Andrus, Air Transport Association
F100
F28
EMB 120
DHC8
ATR 42
BAe 146
CRJ
MD80
DC10
DC9
767
747
737NG
737
727
A340
0
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US Airline Load Factors 2000-2003
85.0%
Average Load Factor
80.0%
75.0%
70.0%
65.0%
60.0%
55.0%
50.0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
45.0%
January
April
July
October
Source: ATA data
Source: ATA Monthly Passenger Traffic Report
MIT
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Annual Change in Average Domestic
Fare
10
% Change vs Prior Year
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2000
2001
2002
Source: ATA Monthly Airfare Report; 1000mi domestic trip (all classes); excludes WN
MIT
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Airline Profitability Impact
Quick Recovery
$/ASM
Slow Recovery
Insolvency
Security costs
CASM
RASM
9/11-9/13
Time
Quarterly Profit (Loss) in millions
MIT
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All Major Carriers On “Slow Recovery”
Trajectory Except Southwest
$600
$400
9/11 Attacks
$200
$$(200)
$(400)
$(600)
$(800)
AA
UA
DL
WN
$(1,000)
00-1Q 00-2Q 00-3Q 00-4Q 01-1Q 01-2Q 01-3Q 01-4Q 02-1Q 02-2Q
Source: Airline reports
Market Cap: US Majors, 3/18/03
MIT
With Jet Blue
ICAT
America
West
0.4%
US Airways Alaska United
ATA
0.0%
0.4%
2.9%
0.3%
Continental
2.2%
Northwest
Delta
4.3%
6.9%
Jet Blue
11.2%
American
1.7%
Southwest
69.9%
Total Market: $15.7 billion
Source: Yahoo! Finance. Includes ATA
MIT
Current Market Cap vs. RPM Share
US Majors and ATA
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Network vs Cost Efficiency Questions
Source: Yahoo! Finance and airline traffic reports
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Southwest SWA Flights
(8/7/02)
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Jet Blue Flights (8/7/02)
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Alaska Flights (8/7/02)
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American AAL Flights (8/7/02)
ORD 12%
DFW 18%
MIA 6%
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Macro Scale Drivers
US Airline Net Profit
8
Cyclic Industry with Exponential Growth In Volatility Since Deregulation
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
Deregulation
-10
-12
-14
Source: ATA
NB: 2001 data includes Air Trans Stabilization Act receipts
US Airlines Net Profit Model
MIT
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Best Fit of Undamped Oscillation
Cycle Period = 11.3 yr
eFolding Time = 6.3 yr
40
Predicted Losses
2003 $15.6 B
2004 $15.0 B
2005 $8.4 B
30
20
10
0
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
-10
-20
-30
-(ATA)
Estimate
10
12
MIT
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50
September 11 Does not Significantly
Change Trend
Cycle Period = 12.1 yr
eFolding Time = 7.6 yr
Analysis using only data before 2001
Net Profit (Current US$B)
40
Predicted Losses
2003 $11.3 B
2004 $13.1 B
2005 $11.2 B
30
20
10
0
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
-10
-(ATA)
Estimate
-20
US
-30
US Fit w/o 2001
MIT
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Growth Limits
Constraints vs Damping
40
30
Upside: Capacity, Market
20
10
0
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
-1 0
Downside: Financial
-2 0
-3 0
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
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Issues
Capacity Issues
US Flight Delays
MIT
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OPSNET National Delays
ü
60000
50000
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Month
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
MIT
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ü
Airport Capacity
o
o
o
o
ü
Capacity Limit Factors
Runways
Gates
Landside Limits (including Security)
Weather
Airspace Capacity
o Airspace Design
o Controller Workload
o Balkanization
ü
Demand
o Peak Demand
o Hub & Spoke Networks
ü
Environmental Limits
o Noise (relates to Airport)
o Emissions (local, Ozone, NOX, CO2)
MIT
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ü
Runways
ü
Weather
Airport System
Capacity Limit Factors
o Capacity Variability
o Convective Weather
ü
Landside Limits
o Gates
o Terminals & Security
o Road Access
ü
Downstream Constraints
ü
Controller Workload
ü
Environmental
o Community Noise
o Emissions
ü
Safety
MIT
Key Terminal System Flows
ICAT (adaptive system - impedance matching)
Add’
Add’l Pax
Screen
Gate
Boarding
Security
Check
Passengers
Check-In
Ckd Bag
Screen
Bags/Cargo
Ground
Transport
Gates
Bag Claim
Security
Point
Airside
Drop-off
Parking
Landside
Pick-up
Parking
MIT
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500 Bags/hr
CTX 9000 Explosive Detector
Example EDS Before Ticketing
MIT
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Check In
Source: Transsolutions Website
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Other Threats
Portable SAMs
SAM-7 Fired at Arkia Airlines B757-300 Mombassa Kenya, Nov 2002
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ü
Electronic Processing
Airline Tickets #1 Web Product by Value
o Browser 1st page effect on marketing
ü
Increase in e-Tickets
o Interlining of e-Tickets
ü
Kiosk check-in
ü
CAPPS II
Source: 2000 US Statistical Abstract
MIT
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Distribution
US Internet Sales by Catagory
9
USD
Sales
(Billion)
8
7
Airline
6
Hotel
5
Car Rental
4
Books
PC's
Software
3
Apparel
2
1
0
1998
1999
2000
Year
ü
- Reduction in commissions to travel agents
ü
- Shift to e-tickets (additional charges for paper tickets)
ü
- Increased restrictions on low fares (USAir charges)
Source: 2000 US Statistical Abstract
MIT
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Noise
Environmental Issues
Emissions
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
oStage 4 (Equipment)
oAirports (Capacity)
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Replacement Vehicles
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•
•
•
•
•
Possibilities
Technologies
New Operating Paradigms
New Airports
New Vehicles
New Markets
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“MACRO”
10,000 parts
Inlet dia = 2 meters
Airflow = 500 kg/sec
Weight = 400 tons
Power output = 150 MW
Nano-Technology Example
“MICRO” Gas Turbines
“MICRO”
2 parts
Inlet dia = 2 mm
Airflow = 0.25 g/sec
Weight = 1 gram
Power output = 10-50 watts
Source: Prof Alan Epstein MIT
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MIT-ARO MICROTURBINE
MIT
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Example ATC Operating Paradigm
Minimal Noise Procedures
MCP Status
Clock
EADI
Speed
V/S
HDG
SPD
016
MODE CONTROL PANEL
(MCP)
Vertical
Speed
Altitude
GS 193
ALT
5000
2470
0619.6z
180
WINDSHEAR
AHEAD
COURSE
IAS/MACH
HEADING
ALTITUDE
VERT SPEED
GPWS
PULL UP
WINDSHEAR
185
GND
Windscreen
5300
PROX
A/T
IDLE
DISPLAY
CMD
VNAV
LNAV
Marker
Beacons
PRECIP
-200
EHSI
8.9 NM
0623.7z
TRK
OUTER
030
M
3
MID
36
6
INNER
WENNY
NOSE
KCOS
LEFT
RIGHT
10
CAGER
Gear Status
5
1
UP
15
FLOTS
20
FCS
CONTROL DISPLAY UNIT
25
30
Flap Status
CONTROL
STICK
PILOT'S CHAIR
17
CAGER
35000 / 350
036 / 16.9
WENNY
060 / 23.5
WATKI!
EKR
30000 / 300
25000 / 250
076 / 17.4
20000 / 250
SPEED BRAKES, THROTTLES,
FLAPS, GEAR
Source: Prof JP Clarke MIT
COURSE
MIT
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3° Decelerating Approach
(JFK 13L)
Existing ILS Approach
3° Decelerating Approach
Continuous Descent Approach
MIT
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Louisville Flight Test
5 dBA Reduction Observed
MIT
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Example ATC Operating Paradigm
UAV Operation
UAV Operation
Satellite Relay
Satellite
Uplink
Current Air Traffic Environment
Unmanned Aerial
Vehicle
Manned
Commercial
Traffic
(Direct RF
link limited to
LOS)
RF
Transmitter
Ground
Station
Air Traffic
Control
MIT
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Example ATC Operating Paradigm
Formation Approaches
Lateral vs Longitudinal Wake Vortex Separation
28L
28R
ü
Limited Reduction Possible in Longitudinal Separation due to Vortex Dynamics
o 20-30 % Throughput Improvement
ü
Lateral Position of Wake well known close to aircraft
ü
Close Dependant Parallel Approaches or Formation Approaches enabled by
accurate guidance technologies
o 100 - 200% Throughput Improvement
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Example New Vehicle
Functionally Silent Commercial Aircraft
Trailing Edge
Treatment
No High-Drag
Devices
Laminar Flow
Technology
Wing-Tip
Treatment
Ultra High-Bypass Ratio
Engines & Engine Air-Brake
Concepts
Noise signature conventional Aircraft:
•
Sideline EPNL:
96.0 dB
•
Cutback EPNL:
90.2 dB
•
Approach EPNL:
98.5 dB
Silent Aircraft concepts are targeted to:
•
Reduce airframe and propulsion noise by 20 to 30 dB
•
Improve quality of life near airports
•
Reduce the operating and societal cost of noise
•
Enable growth of commercial air transportation
What do we mean by “silent”?
ü
“Silent” means sufficiently quiet that aircraft noise is less than background noise in a well populated area
Heretofore unasked technical question - “what would an aircraft look like that had ...”
ü
Noise as a prime design variable?
ü
A design criterion which is a revolutionary step in noise reduction compared to present configurations?
D. Pilczer, A. Manneville, Prof. Z. S. Spakovszky, MIT-GTL
MIT
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ü
Example New Vehicle
Quiet Super-Sonic Business Jet
Market Study
o Range
u Trans-Atlantic (required), Trans-Pacific (desirable)
o Supersonic over land highly desirable
ü
Trans-Atlantic 8 - 15 passenger scheduled service viable
ü
15 Year Market
o 100 (Pessimistic) - 470+ (Optimistic)
Transpacific
5000 nm
Transatlantic
3500 nm
Transcontinental
2500 nm
MIT
ICAT
Aerodynamics - Sonic Boom
ü Boom shaping shows great promise
ü
Mitigate risk early with
demonstrator
o Boom shaping codes TRL
3-4 now*
o Bring up to 6-7 with
demonstrator
o Define “acceptable” levels
for boom
o Get FAA participation in
tests
* Peter Coen, MIT Presentation
Source: Ruffin, MIT Presentation
Flight demonstrator reduces technological
and regulatory risk
MIT
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Example New Airports
Mega-Float Concept
Tokyo Bay Experiment
Source: . www.mlit.go.jp/english/maritime/ mega_float.html
MIT
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Example New Markets
Air Transportation as Enabling Factor in
Developing Regions
North America
38% Pax
27% Cargo
Europe
27% Pax
29% Cargo
~40 Airlines
~4100 Airports
~80 Airlines
~2400 Airports
Latin America/
Caribbean
5% Pax
4% Cargo
~40 Airlines
~580 Airports
Africa
2% Pax
2% Cargo
~20 Airlines
~300 Airports
Asia/
Pacific
25% Pax
34% Cargo
Middle East
3% Pax
4% Cargo
~60 Airlines
~1800 Airports
~12 Airlines
~230 Airports
Infrastructure - Satellite Based Information Technologies have the
potential to allow regions with immature air transportation
infrastructure to rapidly reach parity with mature systems
Population Source:http://www.ciesin.org/datasets/gpw/globldem.doc.html
Air Transport Source ICAO, R. Schild/Airbus
MIT
ICAT
Air Transportation as Enabling
Factor in Developing Regions
Direct / Indirect / Induced employment effects
Economy
Travel/Freight
Need
Financial Equity/
Debt Markets
Economic Enabling Effect
(Access to people / markets / ideas / capital)
Demand
Supply
Pricing & Schedule
Revenue/Profitability
Airlines
Air Transportation System
- The Air Transportation Industry has an obligation to find economic models which
support investment and economic development in these regions.