Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: A Global View
Forest Fire Spreading1
Joseph Romanovsky,2 Vassili Shikin,3 Yuri Shur4
Abstract
Forest fire problem is very present-day problem for Russia. Forest fires become disasters in 2 or
3 regions of Russia every year, especially in regions of Siberia and Far East. Due to that, the
problem of effective management of forest fire control system in Russia is one of the most
important problems of conservancy. The model that is suggested helps to estimate the shape of
ground fire, taking in consideration type of soil cover, current fire danger class, wind speed and
direction and unburnable objects on the map. The result of the research work is a program that
models forest fire spreading. The program is made on Delphi 6.0.
Introduction
Forest fire spreading modeling will help to solve several important problems for forest
fire management.
The first is to develop the optimal plan of suppression forest fire in real time. The
optimal plan of suppression forest fire assumes finding the most effective tactics of its
suppression.
The second important problem, based on forest fire spreading modeling is
estimation of the activity of fire departments after the end of fire season. It is important
to determine the potential area of a forest fire that might have been occupied by the fire
without suppression.
Approaches to forest fire spreading modeling
There are several approaches to forest fire spreading modeling.
The first is based on modeling physical and chemical processes of burning and
composing analytical models and systems of differential equations. An example of such
model is suggested by A. M. Girshim. This model describes 3D processes of
temperature exchange. It implies systems of differential equations. Another example is
approach, suggested by U. A. Gostinzev and A. A. Suchanov. These models describe
processes of temperature exchange, chemical changes and the movement of gas
streams. These models require a number of parameters of forest information that
An abbreviated version of this paper was presented at the second international symposium on fire economics,
policy, and planning: a global view, 19–22 April, 2004, Córdoba, Spain.
1
2 Professor, St.-Petersburg State University, Mathematical department, St.-Petersburg State University,
University embankment 7/9 St.-Petersburg 199034
3 Bachelor, St.-Petersburg State University, Gagarin st. 21 flat 284, St.-Petersburg 196135.
4 Head
of fire management group, doctor of economics, St.-Petersburg Forestry Research Institute, Institute
pr. 21, St.-Petersburg 194021.
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Session Poster-Forest Fire Spreading—Romanovski, Shikin, Shur
change rapidly and interact with each other. That makes practical application of these
methods quite difficult.
The second approach implies rough estimates on the shape of the fire.
The third approach is based on simulation of the forest fire without making rough
estimates on the shape of the fire.
The approach given in this report belongs to the third group. Map is divided into
horizontal stripes of equal width. In each stripe zones with similar burning properties
are picked out. This data representation helps to improve the speed of working with the
map. During the modeling wind speed, wind direction, type of soil cover and current
fire danger class are taken into consideration. What is more, special attention is paid on
the unburnable objects.
Program Overview
The main task of forest fire modeling is to determine the location of fire border at each
point of time. Due to the difficulty modeling, the program concerns only ground fires.
When modeling on a large territory, the program considers both the type of soil cover
and weather conditions, and there changes during modeling.
After the launch of the program the main window appears (fig. 1).
Figure 1—Program main window
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Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: A Global View
Session Poster-Forest Fire Spreading—Romanovski, Shikin, Shur
In order to create a new project one should choose "Project ĺ Create". Then
follow the instructions of the new project wizard. On the first page (fig. 2) data source
is chosen: one can either work with database of forestry information or use his own
files.
Figure 2—Data source
If the first source is chosen next pages (fig. 3-9) help to choose regions for
modeling.
Figure 3—Wizard page 1
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Session Poster-Forest Fire Spreading—Romanovski, Shikin, Shur
Figure 4—Wizard page 2
Figure 5—Wizard page 3
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Session Poster-Forest Fire Spreading—Romanovski, Shikin, Shur
Figure 6—Wizard page 4
Figure 7—Wizard page 5
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Figure 8—Wizard page 6
Figure 9—Wizard page 7
If the second source is chosen, program requires files with the map layers of the
region for modeling and databases with land and weather information (fig. 10, 11).
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Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: A Global View
Session Poster-Forest Fire Spreading—Romanovski, Shikin, Shur
Figure 10—Maps layers
Figure 11—Land and weather databases
After processing input data the program is ready for modeling.
To begin modeling one should press button "Begin" (fig. 1). In the appeared
window (fig.12) date and time of the beginning and the end of modeling, source of
weather information should be chosen.
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Figure 12—Begin modeling window
In order to enter new weather information during the modeling "Modeling ĺ
Weather Info" is used. Here (fig. 13) one may enter current wind speed, wind direction
and fire danger class.
Figure 13—New weather information
Using buttons in "Zoom" group one may zoom in, zoom out, view whole map and
get back to initial zoom (fig. 14,15).
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Session Poster-Forest Fire Spreading—Romanovski, Shikin, Shur
Figure 14—Zooming out
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Figure 15—Zooming in
Items that could be found in the main menu in "Databases ĺ …" (fig. 16) are help
to view and edit databases, used by the program.
Figure 16—Viewing and editing databases
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Proceedings of the Second International Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning, and Policy: A Global View
Session Poster-Forest Fire Spreading—Romanovski, Shikin, Shur
Main menu items in "Settings ĺ Paths" open the window (fig. 17), where basic
databases, used by the program are to be entered.
Figure 17—Editing paths
Main menu items in "Modeling ĺ Statistics" open the window (fig. 18) with total
square of the map, square of the region on fire and fire perimeter.
Figure 17—Statistics
When modeling the region on fire is marked with red lines, right side of the
main window contains information about selected region, such as type of soil
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cover and name. In the top part of the main window current date, time, wind
speed, wind direction and current fire danger class are displayed (fig. 19).
Figure 19—Modeling
Result
Developed algorithm and the program may be useful in forest services and the
management of its activities. It may also be used for teaching the staff of forest
services.
References
Korovin G. N. Methods of evaluation of some parameters of ground forest fires, LenNIILX,
1969
Gostinciv U. A., Suchanob L. A. Aerodynamics of the environment in big fires. Linear fire,
1997
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