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It is issued for the personal use of. . ^ i i ^ . . ^ . i / y ^ r r ^ ^ . . l ^ - ^ ^ ^ ' ^
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C^(62)J.
1st J a n u a r y , 1962
CABINET
USE O F CHRISTMAS ISLAND F O R UNITED STATES NUCLEAR TESTS M e m o r a n d u m by t h e P r i m e M i n i s t e r D u r i n g t h e m e e t i n g w h i c h t h e F o r e i g n S e c r e t a r y and I h a d w i t h
P r e s i d e n t K e n n e d y a n d M r . R u s k in B e r m u d a on 21st a n d 22nd D e c e m b e r
we d i s c u s s e d a t l e n g t h t h e p o s s i b i l i t y of t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s r e s u m i n g n u c l e a r
t e s t s i n t h e a t m o s p h e r e . We w e r e m u c h a s s i s t e d in o u r d i s c u s s i o n s by
S i r W i l l i a m P e n n e y , D e p u t y C h a i r m a n of t h e U n i t e d K i n g d o m A t o m i c
E n e r g y A u t h o r i t y , a n d D r . S e a b o r g , C h a i r m a n of t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s A t o m i c
Energy Commission,
2. ^ A s s e s s m e n t of t h e r e c e n t s e r i e s of S o v i e t t e s t s
Sir William P e n n e y and D r S e a b o r g explained that the r e c e n t
s e r i e s of S o v i e t t e s t s h a d u n d o u b t e d l y b e e n of m i l i t a r y s i g n i f i c a n c e .
T h e S o v i e t U n i o n h a s n o t d r a w n a h e a d of t h e W e s t in n u c l e a r k n o w l e d g e
but the lead which the West p r e v i o u s l y p o s s e s s e d h a s d i s a p p e a r e d .
The
R u s s i a n s m a y n o w k n o w m o r e t h a n t h e W e s t a b o u t 100 m e g a t o n w e a p o n s a n d
t h e i r effects, although the West a r e still b e t t e r informed about light­
w e i g h t w e a p o n s w i t h an e x p l o s i v e p o w e r of a b o u t o n e m e g a t o n . If b o t h
s i d e s now r e f r a i n e d f r o m c o n d u c t i n g f u r t h e r t e s t s t h e b a l a n c e of t h e
d e t e r r e n t c o u l d b e h e l d . T h e i n d i c a t i o n s a r e , h o w e v e r , t h a t s o m e of t h e
S o v i e t t e s t s w e r e d i r e c t e d t o w a r d s t h e d e v e l o p m e n t of a n t i - m i s s i l e s y s t e m s .
If t h e r e f o r e t h e R u s s i a n s , a f t e r a f u r t h e r p e r i o d of p r e p a r a t i o n , w h i c h
m i g h t t a k e a s long a s t w o y e a r s , w e r e t o c o n d u c t a f u r t h e r s e r i e s of t e s t s
and the West had m e a n w h i l e r e f r a i n e d f r o m f u r t h e r t e s t i n g , the Soviet
Union m i g h t t h e n b e a t a s i g n i f i c a n t a d v a n t a g e i n t h e a n t i - m i s s i l e f i e l d .
0
3.
P o s s i b i l i t i e s of a n a n t i - m i s s i l e d e f e n c e
Both the B r i t i s h and the A m e r i c a n s c i e n t i s t s a g r e e that the
d i f f i c u l t i e s of d e v e l o p i n g a n e f f e c t i v e a n t i - m i s s i l e d e f e n c e a r e e n o r m o u s .
T o b e r e a l l y effective s u c h a s y s t e m . w o u l d h a v e to b e a b l e to d e s t r o y
o v e r 90 p e r c e n t of a n y a t t a c k i n g m i s s i l e s . T h i s w o u l d b e e x t r e m e l y
difficult in a n y c a s e , b u t t h e t a s k of t h e d e f e n d e r s c o u l d be m a d e e v e n
h a r d e r if a t t a c k i n g m i s s i l e s h a d d e c o y s i n t h e m . In a d d i t i o n i t i s p o s s i b l e
t h a t v e r y l a r g e e x p l o s i o n s at h i g h a l t i t u d e s m i g h t f u r t h e r c o m p l i c a t e
the defence by i n t e r r u p t i n g r a d a r and r a d i o s y s t e m s . F i n a l l y , s u c h
w e a p o n s , e x p l o d e d p e r h a p s a s f a r a s 25 m i l e s f r o m t h e e a r t h , w o u l d b e
m u c h h a r d e r t o d e s t r o y b y a n t i - m i s s i l e a t t a c k t h a n w o u l d w e a p o n s s e t to
-1­
e x p l o d e at l o w e r a l t i t u d e s . But n u c l e a r w e a p o n s i n t h e 80-100 m e g a t o n
r a n g e could c a u s e g r e a t d e s t r u c t i o n by t h e i r h e a t a n d f i r e - r a i s i n g effects
even though they w e r e exploded at t h e s e high a l t i t u d e s . Our e x p e r t s ,
t h e r e f o r e , c o n c l u d e d t h a t t h e c h a n c e s of e f f e c t i v e a n t i - m i s s i l e d e f e n c e
were extremely remote.
N e v e r t h e l e s s , the s t a k e s w e r e so high and
t h e r e s o u r c e s a v a i l a b l e t o t h e S o v i e t Union a n d to t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s
w e r e s o g r e a t t h a t it w a s i m p o s s i b l e e n t i r e l y t o d i s c o u n t t h e p o s s i b i l i t y
that such a defensive system might eventually be developed. M o r e o v e r ,
if one s i d e o r t h e o t h e r m a d e s i g n i f i c a n t p r o g r e s s in t h i s f i e l d , e v e n if
it f e l l s h o r t of a c o m p l e t e l y e f f e c t i v e s y s t e m , o r if t h e y c o u l d p l a u s i b l y
c l a i m to h a v e d o n e s o , t h e b a l a n c e of t h e d e t e r r e n t m i g h t b e d e c i s i v e l y
u p s e t . C o n s e q u e n t l y , in t h e a b s e n c e of an a d e q u a t e l y c o n t r o l l e d b a n
on n u c l e a r t e s t s , n e i t h e r t h e W e s t n o r t h e S o v i e t Union c o u l d a f f o r d t o
r e n o u n c e the effort n e c e s s a r y to t r y to m a k e p r o g r e s s in this field.
4*
V a l u e of C h r i s t m a s I s l a n d
T h e r e a r e v a r i o u s p l a c e s in w h i c h f u r t h e r n u c l e a r t e s t s
could be c o n d u c t e d b u t t h e r e a r e o b j e c t i o n s t o a l l of t h e m . N e v a d a i s t o o
n e a r populated a r e a s , Johnston Island is v e r y s m a l l and Eniwetok, as
well a s being a t r u s t t e r r i t o r y , would take l o n g e r to r e - a c t i v a t e than
C h r i s t m a s I s l a n d , T e s t s c o u l d be c o n d u c t e d f r o m s h i p s a t s e a , but
t h e s e w o u l d b e v e r y e x p e n s i v e and i t w o u l d t a k e a l o n g t i m e t o m o u n t t h e m .
T h e e x i s t i n g f a c i l i t i e s a t C h r i s t m a s I s l a n d a r e in good r e p a i r a n d c o u l d
b e a d a p t e d in t w o ox- t h r e e m o n t h s , and t h e ax-eais l a r g e e n o u g h t o
accommodate the s e v e r a l thousand people needed for a l a r g e s e r i e s
of t e s t s r a p i d l y c o n d u c t e d . T h e r e i s a l s o s p a c e on t h e i s l a n d f o r t h e
l a r g e n u m b e r of i n s t r u m e n t s n e e d e d . T h e A m e r i c a n s w o u l d n o t , h o w e v e r ,
p r o p o s e to c o n d u c t a t C h r i s t m a s I s l a n d t h e w h o l e of t h e n e w s e r i e s of
t e s t s w h i c h t h e y h a v e in m i n d . T h e v e r y h i g h a l t i t u d e t e s t s w o u l d be
m a d e e l s e w h e r e . They a l s o i n d i c a t e d that they would r e f r a i n f r o m m a k i n g
a t C h r i s t m a s I s l a n d a n y t e s t s i n v o l v i n g e x p l o s i o n s on t h e g r o u n d o r in
b a r g e s , w h i c h w o u l d e n t a i l e s p e c i a l l y l a r g e d a n g e r of g r o u n d c o n t a m i n a t i o n .
5*
P u r p o s e s of t h e p r o p o s e d t e s t s
The P r e s i d e n t and his a d v i s e r s explained in s o m e detail
e x a c t l y w h a t t h e y w i s h e d t o a c h i e v e b y t h e p r o p o s e d s e r i e s qf t e s t s .
T h e s e w o u l d i n c l u d e h i g h a l t i t u d e t e s t s t o m e a s u r e e f f e c t s on m i s s i l e s
c a r r y i n g n u c l e a r w a r h e a d s a n d on r a d a r a n d r a d i o c o m m u n i c a t i o n s j t e s t s
of e x i s t i n g w a r h e a d s w h i c h m i g h t p a v e t h e w a y for w e i g h t r e d u c t i o n s ?
and o t h e r t e s t s of v a r i o u s a d v a n c e d d e s i g n s a l s o w i t h t h e a i m of r e d u c i n g
w e i g h t . T h e a d v a n t a g e of m a k i n g w a r h e a d s l i g h t e r i s t h a t d e c o y s
and other e l e c t r o n i c deviaes can be c a r r i e d . All the p r o p o s e d t e s t s a r e
t h e r e f o r e d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o t h e p o s s i b i l i t i e s of d e v e l o p i n g o r d e f e a t i n g
a n a n t i - m i s s i l e s y s t e m . It w o u l d b e h a r d t o a r g u e t h a t t h e s e a r e n o t
" n e c e s s a r y in o r d e r t o m a i n t a i n t h e b a l a n c e of t h e d e t e r r e n t " .
The
t h r e a t i s n o t i m m e d i a t e b u t m a y b e c o m e s o e v e n by 1964.
6*
P r e s i d e n t Kennedy's attitude
P r e s i d e n t Kennedy m a d e it c l e a r that he had not yet d e c i d e d
t o r e s u m e n u c l e a r t e s t s in t h e a t m o s p h e r e . He s a i d s p e c i f i c a l l y t h a t
h e w i s h e d t o a v o i d t a k i n g t h i s d e c i s i o n if h e c o n s c i e n t i o u s l y c o u l d . At
t h e s a m e t i m e , h e i n d i c a t e d t h a t h e w a s l i k e l y t o d e c i d e in t h e s p r i n g
of 1962 t h a t t e s t s m u s t b e r e s u m e d u n l e s s b y t h e n s o m e s u b s t a n t i a l
i m p r o v e m e n t h a d t a k e n p l a c e in E a s t / W e s t r e l a t i o n s . A n d m e a n w h i l e
h e f e l t t h a t h e c o u l d n o t a v o i d m a k i n g t h e p r e p a r a t i o n s n e c e s s a r y in o r d e r
-2­
t o e n a b l e t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s t o r e s u m e t e s t i n g if in t h r e e o r f o u r m o n t h s '
t i m e such a decision s e e m e d right. The P r e s i d e n t hoped that the United
K i n g d o m v/ould a g r e e b o t h t o s u p p o r t a U n i t e d S t a t e s d e c i s i o n t o r e s u m e
a t m o s p h e r i c t e s t i n g if t h i s w e r e m a d e a n d to s h a r e in t h e t e s t s by
p u t t i n g C h r i s t m a s I s l a n d a t t h e d i s p o s a l of t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . He f e l t
t h a t a g r e e m e n t on b o t h t h e s e p o i n t s s h o u l d b e s i m u l t a n e o u s , a l t h o u g h
a c t i o n on t h e s e c o n d would h a v e t o b e t a k e n b e f o r e t h e f i r s t d e c i s i o n h a d
been made.
7.
I m a d e c l e a r t h e d i s t a s t e w i t h w h i c h t h e U n i t e d K i n g d o m Govern-­
m e n t c o n t e m p l a t e d a n y f u r t h e r r e s u m p t i o n of n u c l e a r t e s t s . In p a r t i c u l a r ,
I e x p r e s s e d the strong view that the West should not r e s u m e n u c l e a r
t e s t s unless they w e r e satisfied that it w a s i m p r a c t i c a b l e to halt the
n u c l e a r a r m s r a c e . Without p r e j u d i c e t o t h e i m m e d i a t e q u e s t i o n , t h e r e f o r e ;
I p r o p o s e d that the United States and the United Kingdom should jointly
c o n s i d e r the p o s s i b i l i t y of s o m e f r e s h i n i t i a t i v e in t h e f i e l d of d i s a r m a m e n t .
F r e s i d e n t Kennedy was not, I thought, opposed to such a plan in p r i n c i p l e ,
b u t h e could n o t s e e any p r a c t i c a l m e t h o d of c a r r y i n g i t o u t . I u n d e r t o o k
to let h i m have m y detailed thoughts a s soon as p o s s i b l e .
8.
On t h e i m m e d i a t e i s s u e I e x p l a i n e d t h a t I c o u l d n o t a g r e e
t o t h e u s e of C h r i s t m a s I s l a n d w i t h o u t c o n s u l t i n g m y C a b i n e t c o l l e a g u e s .
I a l s o told the P r e s i d e n t that a f o r m a l a g r e e m e n t would be n e c e s s a r y
a b o u t A m e r i c a n u s e of C h r i s t m a s I s l a n d a n d p r o p o s e d t h a t o u r e x p e r t s
should c o n s i d e r this question at once without p r e j u d i c e to any final
d e c i s i o n . F i n a l l y , I t o l d P r e s i d e n t K e n n e d y t h a t I r e c o g n i s e d t h a t , if
t h e C a b i n e t d e c i d e d to a l l o w t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s t o u s e C h r i s t m a s I s l a n d
f o r n u c l e a r t e s t i n g and t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s c o n s e q u e n t l y d e v o t e d t i m e a n d
e f f o r t to p r e p a r a t i o n s on t h e i s l a n d , i t w o u l d b e u n r e a s o n a b l e f o r t h e
United Kingdom G o v e r n m e n t to c l a i m m o r e than a r i g h t to be consulted
a b o u t t h e f i n a l d e c i s i o n ^ we c o u l d n o t a s k f o r a v e t o at t h a t s t a g e .
9.
I t h e r e f o r e a s k m y c o l l e a g u e s t o c o n s i d e r w h e t h e r we s h o u l d
now a g r e e t o offer t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s G o v e r n m e n t t h e u s e of t h e f a c i l i t i e s
at C h r i s t m a s I s l a n d for p a r t of t h e s e r i e s of a t m o s p h e r i c n u c l e a r t e s t s
w h i c h t h e y m a y d e c i d e t o h o l d in 1962. S u c h an offer w o u l d b e m a d e
on t h e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g t h a t : - ­
(a)
A f o r m a l a g r e e m e n t m u s t f i r s t be concluded on t h e f i n a n c i a l and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e a r r a n g e m e n t s f o r t h e u s e of t h e s e f a c i l i t i e s . (b)
The P r e s i d e n t would c o n s i d e r carefully and consult the United Kingdom before taking a final decision to r e s u m e t e s t s . (c)
We w o u l d s u p p o r t w h a t e v e r d e c i s i o n P r e s i d e n t Kennedy m a d e . I t h i n k m y s e l f t h a t s u c h a n offer s h o u l d a l s o be m a d e c o n d i t i o n a l o n
U n i t e d S t a t e s a c c e p t a n c e i n p r i n c i p l e of a W e s t e r n i n i t i a t i v e t o h a l t
t h e n u c l e a r a r m s r a c e by a g r e e m e n t .
10.,
On t h i s b a s i s I b e l i e v e t h a t we c o u l d : ­
3­
(a)
Defend a decision to bring C h r i s t m a s Island
t o a s t a t e of r e a d i n e s s f o r r e n e w e d t e s t i n g ,
" a s a m a t t e r of p r u d e n t p l a n n i n g f o r t h e f u t u r e " ,
in t h e w o r d s of t h e B e r m u d a c o m m u n i q u e ,
(b)
Defend an e v e n t u a l U n i t e d S t a t e s d e c i s i o n t o h o l d
t h e f u r t h e r s e r i e s of a t m o s p h e r i c t e s t s w h i c h t h e y
have in m i n d a s n e c e s s a r y to m a i n t a i n the b a l a n c e
of t h e d e t e r r e n t a n d w h i c h w o u l d t h e r e f o r e b e
w i t h i n t h e t e r m s of t h e p u b l i c s t a t e m e n t s m a d e
b y P r e s i d e n t K e n n e d y and m y s e l f on 1st N o v e m b e r
a n d 31st O c t o b e r r e s p e c t i v e l y .
I-T.M.
A d m i r a l t y H o u s e , S . W. 1.
1st J a n u a r y , 1962.
-4­