THIS DOCUMENT IS ! THE PROPERTY Printed for OF H I S BRITANNIC the Cabinet. June MAJESTY'S 1950. .: S E C R E T CP GOYERNMENT , v. Copy N o . 1 (50) 135 23rd June, 1950 - . ' CABINET- MARGINAL - . . LAND MEMORANDUM BY THE HOME SECRETARY, THE MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE A N D FISHERIES AND THE SECRETARY OF STATE FOR SCOTLAND 1. W e w e r e invited b y t h e C a b i n e t , -at-their meeting on 9 t h M a r c h , 1950 ( C M . (50) 9 t h C o n c l u s i o n s , M i n u t e 2 (2)), t o s u b m i t o u r p r o p o s a l s for t h e d e v e l o p m e n t of m a r g i n a l land, including any p r o p o s a l s r e g a r d i n g the supply of fertilisers. P r o p o s a l s o n t h e latter subject w e r e dealt w i t h in Our r e p o r t o n t h e farm p r i c e review discussions w i t h t h e F a r m e r s ' U n i o n s ( C P . (50) 45), a n d we n o w s u b m i t for t h e c o n s i d e r a t i o n of our colleagues t h e conclusions which w e h a v e r e a c h e d w i t h r e g a r d to t h e t r e a t m e n t of m a r g i n a l l a n d . 2. T h i s p r o b l e m h a s b e e n fully e x a m i n e d b y a w o r k i n g p a r t y of officials d u r i n g t h e p a s t few m o n t h s a n d b y t h e P a n e l o n I m p o r t S u b s t i t u t i o n . T h e i r r e p o r t s have b e e n considered b y the A g r i c u l t u r a l O u t p u t C o m m i t t e e (comprising officials of t h e A g r i c u l t u r e D e p a r t m e n t s , the T r e a s u r y , the M i n i s t r y of F o o d , t h e C e n t r a l E c o n o m i c P l a n n i n g Staff a n d t h e E c o n o m i c Section of t h e C a b i n e t Office), w h o s e r e p o r t is a n n e x e d . T h i s r e p o r t is s u m m a r i s e d below, b u t w e suggest t o o u r colleagues t h a t it is very desirable to r e a d t h e r e p o r t itself if t h e size a n d c o m p l e x i t y of t h e subject is to b e fully a p p r e c i a t e d . * . 3 . T h e r e p o r t p o i n t s o u t that, a p a r t f r o m l a n d c o v e r e d b y t h e Hill F a r m i n g Act, 1946, t h e r e are s o m e 3\ t o 4 million acres in t h e u p l a n d a r e a s of t h e U n i t e d K i n g d o m , t h e productivity of w h i c h c o u l d b e materially i n c r e a s e d b y l o n g - t e r m i m p r o v e m e n t schemes similar t o those a l r e a d y p r o v i d e d for hill land u n d e r the Hill F a r m i n g Act. I n a d d i t i o n t h e r e a r e a n u m b e r of m u c h smaller areas s p r e a d a b o u t t h e c o u n t r y a n d covering s o m e 500,000 acres in all, w h i c h c o u l d w i t h a d v a n t a g e b e m u c h i m p r o v e d a n d which, if improved, w o u l d c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e m o r e e c o n o m i c a l f a r m i n g of t h e s u r r o u n d i n g areas. 4. T h e Agricultural O u t p u t C o m m i t t e e recognise t h a t it w o u l d t a k e a c o n s i d e r a b l e time t o d e a l w i t h all l a n d t h a t is c a p a b l e of i m p r o v e m e n t , p a r t i c u ­ larly if w e are to rely o n v o l u n t a r y m e a n s , a n d bearing i n m i n d t h a t m a n y l a n d ­ owners w o u l d be u n a b l e , or unwilling, to find their s h a r e of t h e cost, e v e n if substantial G o v e r n m e n t grants w e r e m a d e available. F u r t h e r m o r e , the C o m m i t t e e consider t h a t it is necessary t o h a v e r e g a r d t o o u r g e n e r a l capital i n v e s t m e n t p r o g r a m m e as well as t o t h e e x t e n t of o u r n e e d for m o r e h o m e - p r o d u c e d m e a t . 5. W i t h these c o n s i d e r a t i o n s in m i n d t h e C o m m i t t e e h a v e p u t f o r w a r d t h e following r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s , w h i c h we fully e n d o r s e — (i) t h a t a s u m of £10 millions s h o u l d b e p r o v i d e d o v e r t h e 5 years 1951 t o 1956 for 5 0 per cent, g r a n t s t o w a r d s the cost of v o l u n t a r y s c h e m e s for i m p r o v i n g m a r g i n a l l a n d in u p l a n d a r e a s ; (ii) t h a t a s u m of £5 millions s h o u l d b e p r o v i d e d over t h e same p e r i o d for the extension of t h e facilities a l r e a d y available for t h e i m p r o v e m e n t of hill land u n d e r the Hill F a r m i n g Act, 1946; (iii) t h a t a n a d d i t i o n a l £2 millions s h o u l d be m a d e available, if necessary, for t h e p u r p o s e s of (i) a n d (ii) a b o v e , subject t o the a p p r o v a l of t h e T r e a s u r y a n d of P a r l i a m e n t ; (iv) t h a t a further s u m of a b o u t £4 millions should b e p r o v i d e d for c o n t i n u i n g t h e m a r g i n a l p r o d u c t i o n s c h e m e s from 1953 t o 1956, provision h a v i n g already b e e n m a d e u n d e r the recent price review s e t t l e m e n t for increased o u t l a y a t the r a t e of £1 - 2 million p e r year for t h e t h r e e years u p to 1 9 5 2 ; (v) t h e subsidy schemes for hill s h e e p a n d hill cattle s h o u l d b e e x t e n d e d for a further 5 years until 1956 a t a n estimated t o t a l cost of £11 millions. 38914 B T h e s e d e v e l o p m e n t s w o u l d r e q u i r e the e m p l o y m e n t of r a t h e r over 200 e x t r a staff i n all for t h e U n i t e d K i n g d o m . 6. I n o u r view it is essential, b o t h f r o m t h e political a n d f r o m t h e sociological aspect, t h a t w e s h o u l d u n d e r t a k e specific m e a s u r e s for t h e d e v e l o p m e n t of m a r g i n a l l a n d in this c o u n t r y . O n t h e political side w e w o u l d r e m i n d o u r colleagues t h a t all t h e t h r e e m a j o r P a r t i e s a d v o c a t e d in their E l e c t i o n M a n i f e s t o s m e a s u r e s for increasing p r o d u c t i o n f r o m m a r g i n a l l a n d , a n d T h e K i n g ' s S p e e c h at the o p e n i n g of t h e p r e s e n t P a r l i a m e n t includes t h e following p h r a s e : — " T h e e c o n o m i c difficulties of this c o u n t r y h a v e e m p h a s i s e d t h e n e e d for r e n e w e d effort t o e x p a n d t h e p r o d u c t i o n of food from o u r o w n soil, a n d M y G o v e r n m e n t will c o n t i n u e t o t a k e all p r a c t i c a l steps t o e n c o u r a g e o u r agri­ c u l t u r a l p o p u l a t i o n t o i n c r e a s e o u t p u t b y every efficient m e a n s a n d t o m a k e b e t t e r use of m a r g i n a l land." W e s h o u l d u n d o u b t e d l y b e v u l n e r a b l e t o severe criticism if w e w e r e to c o n t i n u e t o s p e n d substantial s u m s o n v a r i o u s p r o j e c t s for t h e d e v e l o p m e n t of r e s o u r c e s overseas (some of t h e m w i t h c o n s i d e r a b l e u n c e r t a i n t y as t o t h e u l t i m a t e r e t u r n ^ a n d d o n o t s t i m u l a t e similar d e v e l o p m e n t of t h e resources of the U n i t e d K i n g d o m w h e r e t h e r e t u r n is m o r e c e r t a i n , is entirely u n d e r o u r o w n c o n t r o l , a n d enures fully t o o u r o w n benefit. 7. T h e e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n of f a r m e r s in m a r g i n a l a r e a s , n o t a b l y in Scotland a n d W a l e s , is reflected in t h e c o m m u n i t y life a n d amenities of s u c h districts. W h e r e t h e f a r m e r finds it n e c e s s a r y t o c u t d o w n his costs of p r o d u c t i o n a n d t o b e c o n t e n t w i t h a lower s t a n d a r d of life, t h e r e is c o r r e s p o n d i n g d e p r e s s i o n a m o n g o t h e r m e m b e r s of t h e s e r u r a l c o m m u n i t i e s , w h o g r a d u a l l y m o v e a w a y f r o m s u c h a r e a s , w i t h t h e result t h a t in m a n y m a r g i n a l a r e a s of W a l e s t h e r e is n o w a n a c u t e s h o r t a g e of bricklayers, c a r p e n t e r s a n d similar t r a d e s m e n . W e u n d e r s t a n d t h a t the A d v i s o r y C o u n c i l for W a l e s h a v e e x p r e s s e d c o n s i d e r a b l e c o n c e r n o n this m a t t e r , a n d cori­ sider t h a t , p u r e l y o n sociological g r o u n d s , active m e a s u r e s a r e d e s i r a b l e t o increase t h e p r o d u c t i v i t y of m a r g i n a l l a n d . 8. W e c o m m e n d these p r o p o s a l s t o o u r colleagues as a wise d e v e l o p m e n t of latent a g r i c u l t u r a l r e s o u r c e s , as a n i n s u r a n c e against loss Or d i m i n u t i o n of overseas supplies of m e a t , a n d as a c o n t r i b u t i o n t o w a r d s t h e i m p r o v e m e n t of social conditions in the countryside. ' 3 ' ' J. C. E . T. W . H. McN. 23rd June, 1950. PRODUCTION FROM MARGINAL LAND IN THE UNITED KINGDOM REPORT BY THE AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT COMMITTEE 1. T h e A g r i c u l t u r a l O u t p u t C o m m i t t e e h a v e considered h o w effect could best be given t o t h e G o v e r n m e n t s decision t o p r o m o t e the b e t t e r utilisation of m a r g i n a l l a n d a n n o u n c e d in t h e K i n g ' s Speech i n t h e following t e r m s : - " M y G o v e r n m e n t will c o n t i n u e t o t a k e all p r a c t i c a l steps t o e n c o u r a g e o u r agricultural p o p u l a t i o n t o i n c r e a s e o u p t u t b y every efficient m e a n s a n d to m a k e b e t t e r use of m a r g i n a l l a n d . " T h e C o m m i t t e e h a v e also reviewed the o p e r a t i o n of t h e Hill F a r m i n g A c t , 1946 * the m a i n provisions of w h i c h are d u e t o expire in N o v e m b e r 1951. 2. A s a first s t e p the A g r i c u l t u r e D e p a r t m e n t s set u p a w o r k i n g p a r t y u n d e r the c h a i r m a n s h i p of Sir P a t r i c k L a i r d (Secretary, D e p a r t m e n t of A g r i c u l t u r e for Scotland), t o investigate t h e possibility a n d cost of e x p a n d i n g h o m e m e a t p r o d u c t i o n by the d e v e l o p m e n t a n d i m p r o v e m e n t of m a r g i n a l a n d hill land. A p a r t from officials of t h e A g r i c u l t u r e D e p a r t m e n t s the w o r k i n g p a r t y i n c l u d e d t w o distin­ guished scientists, Professor W . Ellison, B . S c , P h . D . , of the U n i v e r s i t y College of W a l e s a n d D r . F . Y a t e s , S c D . , F . R . S . , of t h e R o t h a m s t e d E x p e r i m e n t a l Station. T h e r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s of t h e w o r k i n g p a r t y a r e s u m m a r i s e d in p a r a g r a p h s 3 to 14 of this R e p o r t . RECOMMENDATIONS OF WORKING PARTY 3. T h e t e r m " m a r g i n a l l a n d " is often loosely used a n d estimates of the a r e a of this l a n d in t h e U n i t e d K i n g d o m v a r y t o a c o r r e s p o n d i n g l y wide extent. T h e w o r k i u g p a r t y c o n s i d e r e d t h a t p r o b a b l y t h e m o s t practical definition is t h a t it is l a n d w h i c h is best suited to b e u s e d m a i n l y for the breeding o r r e a r i n g of cattle or s h e e p a n d w h i c h is n o t s u i t e d t o b e used t o a n y m a t e r i a l extent for t h e p r o d u c t i o n of milk, fatstock o r c r o p s for sale. This definition w o u l d c o v e r m o s t of the hill a n d u p l a n d g r a z i n g l a n d in t h e c o u n t r y , including l a n d classified as " hill farming l a n d " for t h e p u r p o s e s of the Hill F a r m i n g A c t . T h e significant fact a b o u t such l a n d is t h a t for years it h a s b e e n u n d e r - f a r m e d a n d under-capitalised, largely because of t h e u n c e r t a i n t y of the e c o n o m i c o u t l o o k a n d the lack of c a p i t a l t o c a r r y o u t i m p r o v e m e n t s . A s t h o s e f a r m i n g o n this l a n d p r o d u c e few e n d p r o d u c t s , they benefit only indirectly a n d p a r t i a l l y from the g u a r a n t e e d prices a n d a s s u r e d m a r k e t s w h i c h a p p l y t o t h e p r o d u c t s of o t h e r f a r m e r s . N o t all.of this land is c a p a b l e of being i m p r o v e d at r e a s o n a b l e cost but, excluding l a n d c o m i n g w i t h i n t h e scope of t h e Hill F a r m i n g A c t , t h e r e are p r o b a b l y in t h e U n i t e d K i n g d o m some 3 J - 4 million acres w h o s e p r o d u c t i v i t y c o u l d be materially i n c r e a s e d by suitable improvements. 4 . A p a r t f r o m these m a i n areas of m a r g i n a l l a n d there are t h r o u g h o u t the c o u n t r y p o c k e t s or stretches of l a n d of v a r y i n g size, situation o r c h a r a c t e r w h i c h by r e c l a m a t i o n o r i m p r o v e m e n t c o u l d s h o w a m a r k e d increase i n p r o d u c t i o n . E x a m p l e s a r e t o b e f o u n d in t h e F e n s , a m o n g t h e light sandy soils of N o t t i n g h a m a n d t h e E a s t R i d i n g of Y o r k s h i r e , a n d in river m e a d o w s a n d m a r s h e s . T h e r e are p r o b a b l y a b o u t 500,000 acres of this l a n d i n t h e U n i t e d K i n g d o m . 5. F i n a n c i a l assistance for t h e i m p r o v e m e n t of p r o d u c t i o n from m a r g i n a l l a n d h a s h i t h e r t o b e e n derived f r o m funds available u n d e r the Hill F a r m i n g Act, the m a r g i n a l a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n schemes a n d certain other ad hoc g r a n t s such as those for l a n d d r a i n a g e , w a t e r supply, a n d t h e application of lime. G r a n t s u n d e r t h e H i l l F a r m i n g A c t of 50 p e r cent, of a p p r o v e d cost are available for c o m p r e ­ h e n s i v e r e h a b i l i t a t i o n schemes designed to r e s t o r e farms to a s o u n d e c o n o m i c s t a t e ; they a r e limited, h o w e v e r , t o hill sheep f a r m s . Assistance u n d e r the m a r g i n a l a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n s c h e m e s is mainly i n respect of s h o r t - t e r m i m p r o v e m e n t s , such as m a n u r i n g a n d r e s e e d i n g , which h a v e a c o m p a r a t i v e l y early effect u p o n p r o d u c t i o n . Assistance u n d e r these latter schemes is m a i n l y a policy of giving s u p p o r t t o u n i t s w h i c h a r e for t h e time being u n e c o n o m i c . T h e i r p r o d u c t i v i t y c a n b e i n c r e a s e d a n d this assistance is n o t necessarily connected w i t h t h e quality of the l a n d . T h e i m p r o v e m e n t p r o v i s i o n s of the Hill F a r m i n g A c t e x p i r e in N o v e m b e r 1951, after w h i c h n o further schemes m a y b e accepted, while t h e m a r g i n a l agricul­ t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n schemes a r e d u e t o c o m e t o a n e n d in 1 9 5 2 - 3 . 38914 B 2 6. D u r i n g t h e p a s t year a t t e n t i o n h a s b e e n focussed in v a r i o u s w a y s u p o n t h e possibility of o b t a i n i n g i n c r e a s e d supplies of m e a t f r o m m a r g i n a l l a n d . T h e r e h a v e b e e n d e b a t e s a n d q u e s t i o n s o n t h e subject in b o t h H o u s e s of P a r l i a m e n t . Surveys of a r e a s of m a r g i n a l l a n d h a v e b e e n c a r r i e d o u t b y a n d o n behalf of the Agriculture Departments. Papers on marginal land improvement have been read b y p r o m i n e n t a g r i c u l t u r a l scientists a n d t h e N a t i o n a l F a r m e r s ' U n i o n s h a v e r e c o r d e d i n m e m o r a n d a t h e results of t h e i r special investigations i n t o t h e p r o b l e m . T h e w o r k i n g p a r t y f o u n d t h a t there i s g e n e r a l a g r e e m e n t t h a t , if farms in the m a i n areas of m a r g i n a l l a n d a r e t o s u p p o r t i n c r e a s e d n u m b e r s of stock, l o n g - t e r m schemes of r e h a b i l i t a t i o n w o u l d b e n e e d e d similar t o t h o s e p r o m o t e d u n d e r t h e H i l l F a r m i n g . A c t . N o t Only s h o u l d t h e l a n d b e i m p r o v e d b y t h e a p p l i c a t i o n of fertilisers, fencing, d r a i n a g e a n d reseeding, b u t t o s e c u r e t h e m a x i m u m o u t p u t o t h e r m o r e p e r m a n e n t i m p r o v e m e n t s w o u l d b e n e e d e d , such as t h e p r o v i s i o n or i m p r o v e m e n t of h o u s i n g , f a r m buildings, r o a d s , w a t e r a n d electricity supply, s o m e of w h i c h w o u l d b e social in c h a r a c t e r a n d designed t o s e c u r e a n d m a i n t a i n a p r o p e r b a l a n c e of r u r a l life. ! ! 7. T h e w o r k i n g p a r t y c o n s i d e r e d estimates of costs a n d r e t u r n s for m a r g i n a l l a n d so i m p r o v e d b a s e d o n s u r v e y s c a r r i e d o u t in E n g l a n d a n d W a l e s b y t h e I m p o r t S u b s t i t u t i o n P a n e l of t h e C o m m i t t e e o n I n d u s t r i a l P r o d u c t i v i t y a n d in S c o t l a n d by technical officers of t h e D e p a r t m e n t of A g r i c u l t u r e . A s m e n t i o n e d in p a r a g r a p h 3, these surveys suggest t h a t t h e r e m a y b e s o m e Z\ t o 4 m i l l i o n acres in t h e U n i t e d K i n g d o m t h a t a r e c a p a b l e of i m p r o v e m e n t , b u t t h e w o r k i n g p a r t y ' s view is that, even w i t h t h e a i d of a 50 p e r cent, g r a n t , i m p r o v e m e n t schemes are h a r d l y likely t o b e p r o m o t e d w i t h i n a n 8-year p e r i o d for m o r e t h a n a b o u t 2-2\ million acres. E v e n w i t h t h e h e l p of surveys, t h e r e is not'sufficient evidence t o e n a b l e e x a c t financial e s t i m a t e s t o b e m a d e of e i t h e r t h e cost of or t h e r e t u r n s from i m p r o v e m e n t s c h e m e s , b u t s u c h e v i d e n c e as is available suggests t h a t , a s s u m i n g t h a t in fact 2,\ m i l l i o n acres w e r e i m p r o v e d , this a r e a m i g h t be e x p e c t e d to p r o d u c e e a c h year a b o u t 265,000 e x t r a store c a t t l e (or t h e e q u i v a l e n t in s t o r e sheep) which, w h e n f a t t e n e d o n l o w l a n d f a r m s , w o u l d yield a n a n n u a l i n c r e a s e i n p r o d u c t i o n of a b o u t 90,000 t o n s of c a r c a s e m e a t of h i g h quality. T h e capital c o s t of full rehabili­ t a t i o n schemes w o u l d a v e r a g e a b o u t £ 3 0 p e r a c r e at c u r r e n t prices, b u t since full r e h a b i l i t a t i o n w o u l d n o t b e p r o v i d e d b y all s c h e m e s , t h e a v e r a g e w o u l d b e s o m e ­ w h a t lower. Of this cost a b o u t o n e - t h i r d w o u l d b e for i m p r o v e m e n t s to t h e l a n d itself (cultivations, seeds, lime, fertilisers, fencing a n d drainage), w h i l e t h e r e m a i n i n g t w o - t h i r d s w o u l d b e for b u i l d i n g s (including f a r m h o u s e s a n d c o t t a g e s ) , installation of w a t e r a n d electricity supplies, c o n s t r u c t i o n of f a r m r o a d s a n d t h e p l a n t i n g of shelter belts. After m e e t i n g a n n u a l d e p r e c i a t i o n a n d m a i n t e n a n c e costs of t h e i m p r o v e m e n t s t h e a d d i t i o n a l o u t p u t of s t o r e c a t t l e (valued a t c u r r e n t prices a n d excluding hill c a t t l e subsidy) m i g h t b e e x p e c t e d t o yield a n a v e r a g e net r e t u r n of a b o u t 4 p e r cent, of t h e total c a p i t a l i n v e s t m e n t , a s s u m i n g t h a t t h e a r e a involved did n o t exceed 2 - 2 ^ million acres. T h e b u l k of t h e capital e x p e n d i t u r e w o u l d b e i n c u r r e d b y t h e l a n d o w n e r , b u t t h e i n c r e a s e d r e t u r n w o u l d a c c r u e in t h e first p l a c e t o t h e f a r m e r , w h o w o u l d o n l y s h a r e it w i t h t h e l a n d o w n e r i n so far as r e n t s increased. 8. O n t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e r e is a c o n t i n u i n g n e e d for i n c r e a s e d a n d better q u a l i t y supplies of h o m e - p r o d u c e d beef a n d m u t t o n , w h i c h in t u r n will d e p e n d v e r y largely o n i m p r o v e d s u p p l i e s of s t o r e c a t t l e a n d sheep f r o m t h e hill a n d m a r g i n a l l a n d of t h e c o u n t r y , t h e w o r k i n g p a r t y c o n s i d e r e d t h a t a g o o d case existed for t h e p r o v i s i o n of financial assistance for l o n g - t e r m r e h a b i l i t a t i o n schemes for m a r g i n a l l a n d i n t h e m a i n hill a n d u p l a n d a r e a s . T h e y t h o u g h t t h a t t h e simplest a n d m o s t satisfactory w a y of p r o v i d i n g for t h i s w o u l d b e t o a m e n d a n d e x t e n d t h e Hill F a r m i n g A c t t o e n a b l e i m p r o v e m e n t g r a n t s of 50 per c e n t , of t h e a p p r o v e d cost t o b e p a i d for w o r k d o n e u n d e r c o m p r e h e n s i v e schemes o n m a r g i n a l l a n d a s defined in p a r a g r a p h 3. T h i s a r r a n g e m e n t w o u l d h a v e t h e f u r t h e r a d v a n t a g e t h a t it w o u l d a t t h e s a m e t i m e e n a b l e t h e assistance at p r e s e n t available f o r hill f a r m i n g l a n d , p r o p e r l y so called, to b e c o n t i n u e d . T h e i m p r o v e m e n t p r o v i s i o n s of t h e A c t h a v e r u n t w o - t h i r d s of their course. A l t h o u g h for several r e a s o n s this p a r t of t h e A c t got off to a slow start, s u b s t a n t i a l p r o g r e s s h a s recently b e e n m a d e , a n d of t h e £4 millions a t p r e s e n t available for g r a n t s o m e £ 3 ^ millions h a v e b e e n a l r e a d y e a r m a r k e d . P r o p o s a l s for i m p r o v e m e n t schemes a r e still c o m i n g i n a t a s t e a d y r a t e , a n d it seems r e a s o n a b l y certain, therefore, t h a t t h e r e will b e a s t r o n g case n o t only for t h e a d d i t i o n a l £1 m i l l i o n w h i c h c a n b e m a d e available u n d e r t h e A c t a s it s t a n d s , b u t for a n extension of t h e A c t for a f u r t h e r p e r i o d w i t h the p r o v i s i o n of a d d i t i o n a l funds if t h e v e r y d e s i r a b l e i m p r o v e m e n t of hill f a r m s n o w going o n is n o t t o b e b r o u g h t t o a standstill. 9. T h e w o r k i n g p a r t y t h e r e f o r e r e c o m m e n d e d t h a t legislation b e p r o m o t e d t o a m e n d a n d e x t e n d the Hill F a r m i n g A c t t o e m b o d y the p r o p o s e d policy for t h e i m p r o v e m e n t of t h e m a i n areas of m a r g i n a l l a n d as well as to p r o v i d e for t h e c o n t i n u a n c e of hill f a r m i n g l a n d i m p r o v e m e n t s c h e m e s . T h i s w o u l d of c o u r s e i m p l y t h e c o n t i n u a n c e of t h e v o l u n t a r y p r i n c i p l e w h i c h w a s e m b o d i e d in t h e H i l l F a r m i n g A c t as a n e x p e r i m e n t a l m e a s u r e . L a n d o w n e r s a n d hill f a r m e r s have o n t h e w h o l e n o t been b a c k w a r d in s u b m i t t i n g schemes a n d it t h e r e f o r e seems u n d e s i r a b l e t o substitute c o m p u l s i o n for t h e v o l u n t a r y principle, p a r t i c u l a r l y a t a time w h e n t h e scope of the A c t w o u l d b e b r o a d e n e d t o m a k e assisted s c h e m e s available for a large n u m b e r of h i t h e r t o ineligible f a r m s . M o r e o v e r , w h e r e t h e s t a n d a r d of f a r m i n g or of e s t a t e m a n a g e m e n t is unsatisfactory t h e p o w e r s of supervision a n d dispossession u n d e r P a r t I I of t h e A g r i c u l t u r e A c t , 1947, can b e i n v o k e d . T h e w o r k i n g p a r t y c o n s i d e r e d also t h a t t h e p e r i o d of e x t e n s i o n of t h e A c t m i g h t b e for eight years. T h i s w o u l d give t i m e for s o m e schemes t o b e c o m ­ pleted a n d b y their e x a m p l e t o e n c o u r a g e o t h e r f a r m e r s a n d l a n d o w n e r s t o s u b m i t s c h e m e s ; it w o u l d at the s a m e t i m e give confidence in the c o n t i n u i t y of t h e policy of p r o m o t i n g t h e increased p r o d u c t i v i t y of m a r g i n a l land. 10. T h e w o r k i n g p a r t y p o i n t e d o u t t h a t s o m e holdings c o m i n g within t h e i r definition of m a r g i n a l l a n d w o u l d b e u n i t s w h i c h are n o t n o w e c o n o m i c a n d w o u l d b e unlikely t o b e c o m e so e v e n after a c o m p r e h e n s i v e s c h e m e of i m p r o v e m e n t . T h e y c o n s i d e r e d t h a t p u b l i c m o n e y s h o u l d n o t b e s p e n t in assisting p r i v a t e o w n e r s t o r e h a b i l i t a t e farms of this t y p e ; assistance for full r e h a b i l i t a t i o n schemes should only b e given for units w h i c h a r e , or a r e likely t o b e c o m e , e c o n o m i c . T h e Hill F a r m i n g A c t already p r o v i d e s t h a t the cost of t h e i m p r o v e m e n t w o r k r e q u i r e d for m a k i n g any of t h e i m p r o v e m e n t s m u s t n o t be excessive in r e l a t i o n t o t h e benefit t o b e d e r i v e d from t h e m . I t is the practice of D e p a r t m e n t s before a p p r o v i n g schemes t o m a k e a p r e l i m i n a r y e c o n o m i c a p p r a i s a l t o see t h a t this condition will b e satisfied. I n E n g l a n d a n d W a l e s the C o u n t y A g r i c u l t u r a l E x e c u t i v e C o m m i t t e e s a n d t h e A g r i c u l t u r a l L a n d Service consider s c h e m e s i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e e x p e c t e d m a i n t e n a n c e of, a n d increase in, productivity, a n d only if they consider t h a t t h e schemes will b e e c o n o m i c p r o p o s i t i o n s d o they r e c o m m e n d a p p r o v a l . A criterion often a p p l i e d is w h e t h e r t h e increased stocking of t h e l a n d w o u l d e n a b l e a n e c o n o m i c r e n t t o b e p a i d o n t h e c a p i t a l invested. I n S c o t l a n d the D e p a r t m e n t usually only a p p r o v e s c h e m e s w h e r e t h e increase in o u t p u t is such as to m e e t t h e a n n u a l d e p r e c i a t i o n a n d m a i n t e n a n c e costs of t h e i m p r o v e m e n t , t o g e t h e r w i t h interest o n capital of a t least 2 p e r cent., which o n t h e basis of a 50 p e r c e n t . ' g r a n t is e q u i v a l e n t t o a t least 4 p e r cent, for t h e f a r m e r s ' capital. Schemes h a v e t o be c o m p r e h e n s i v e , i.e., they h a v e t o c o n t a i n all t h e w o r k necessary t o p u t t h e f a r m s into p r o p e r w o r k i n g o r d e r . T h i s m e a n s t h a t s o m e t i m e s , for i n s t a n c e , w h e r e a n u m b e r of f a r m s a r e served b y a single p r i v a t e access r o a d or w a t e r supply, the scheme has t o cover several h o l d i n g s . T h e r e s h o u l d b e n o difficulty in applying these g e n e r a l principles t o t h e assessment of i m p r o v e m e n t s c h e m e s for m a r g i n a l land t o e n s u r e t h a t full r e h a b i l i t a t i o n schemes are a p p r o v e d only for u n i t s w h i c h are e c o n o m i c o r are likely to b e c o m e so. 11. T h e w o r k i n g p a r t y c o n s i d e r e d , h o w e v e r , that, while m a n y of t h e u n e c o n o m i c u n i t s s h o u l d n o t b e c o m e t h e subject of full r e h a b i l i t a t i o n i m p r o v e m e n t schemes, it w o u l d b e possible t o increase their o u t p u t appreciably b y t h e e x p e n d i t u r e of a r e a s o n a b l e a m o u n t of m o n e y o n s h o r t - t e r m i m p r o v e m e n t s , such as direct i m p r o v e m e n t s t o t h e l a n d a n d t h e p r o v i s i o n of t e m p o r a r y cattle shelters for wintering. T h e y t h o u g h t t h a t if t h e n e e d for an increase i n the o u t p u t of h o m e ­ g r o w n m e a t is such as t o r e q u i r e t h e full u s e of this l a n d t h e n it m i g h t b e desirable to a p p r o v e schemes of this strictly limited k i n d , w h i c h s h o u l d r a n k for 50 per cent, grant. A l t h o u g h these limited schemes w o u l d of c o u r s e b e of a s h o r t - t e r m n a t u r e only, yet t h e assistance p r o v i d e d m i g h t b e well w o r t h while in r e l a t i o n t o t h e r e t u r n s o b t a i n e d . I t w o u l d also p r e v e n t m a n y of these f a r m s from going o u t of p r o d u c t i o n , as t h e y a r e likely to d o unless assistance is f o r t h c o m i n g , a n d w o u l d e n a b l e t h e m to m a k e t h e i r p r o p e r c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e n a t i o n ' s m e a t supplies, while t h e p r o b l e m of their p e r m a n e n t future w a s b e i n g further studied. 12. T h e further c o n s i d e r a t i o n of t h e p r o b l e m of the p e r m a n e n t f u t u r e of these h o l d i n g s w h i c h c a n n o t b e m a d e e c o n o m i c by m e a n s available t o t h e p r i v a t e l a n d ­ o w n e r or occupier, p a r t i c u l a r l y w h e r e t h e h o l d i n g s occur in g r o u p s or a r e a s , seemed t o t h e w o r k i n g p a r t y t o b e a suitable task for t h e A g r i c u l t u r a l L a n d C o m m i s s i o n in E n g l a n d a n d W a l e s a n d for technical officers of t h e D e p a r t m e n t a n d of the A g r i c u l t u r a l Colleges in S c o t l a n d in a c c o r d a n c e w i t h the agricultural policy already 38914 c laid d o w n b y t h e G o v e r n m e n t in t h e A g r i c u l t u r e Acts. I n d e e d , t h e y t h o u g h t t h a t t h e p r o b l e m of o b t a i n i n g full p r o d u c t i o n f r o m s o m e m a r g i n a l a r e a s goes b e y o n d a r e o r g a n i s a t i o n of estate m a n a g e m e n t a n d f a r m i n g p r a c t i c e a n d involves t h e social p r o b l e m of r e s e t t l e m e n t a n d r e d e v e l o p m e n t w i t h a c o m p l e t e r e o r g a n i s a t i o n of social services a n d a m e n i t i e s . T h e y c o n s i d e r e d t h a t o n e o r t w o pilot s c h e m e s m i g h t well b e carried o u t i n establishing r u r a l d e v e l o p m e n t a r e a s for m a r g i n a l l a n d o n t h e b r o a d principles of t h e D i s t r i b u t i o n of I n d u s t r y A c t , 1945. T h i s w o u l d p r o b a b l y involve the acquisition of t h e l a n d b y t h e S t a t e . T h e y also e m p h a s i s e d t h a t i n t h e i r view n o r e a l increase in p r o d u c t i o n f r o m s o m e m a r g i n a l a r e a s , p a r t i c u l a r l y in Wales, w o u l d be possible until t h e p u b l i c r o a d s t h e r e w e r e p u t i n t o a g o o d state of repair. T h e y d i d n o t consider this t o b e a fit subject for financial assistance u n d e r a n a m e n d e d H i l l F a r m i n g A c t , b u t r e c o m m e n d e d , as a m a t t e r of special u r g e n c y , j o i n t e x a m i n a t i o n of t h e p r o b l e m b y t h e A g r i c u l t u r e D e p a r t m e n t s a n d t h e M i n i s t r y of T r a n s p o r t . 13. T h e w o r k i n g p a r t y r e c o g n i s e d t h a t t h e t o t a l cost of c a r r y i n g o u t t h e i m p r o v e m e n t schemes suggested w o u l d v a r y g r e a t l y a c c o r d i n g t o the extent t o which f a r m e r s t o o k a d v a n t a g e of t h e facilities p r o v i d e d a n d a c c o r d i n g to the a c t u a l cost of doing t h e w o r k . A s s t a t e d in p a r a g r a p h 7, they e s t i m a t e d t h a t n o t m o r e t h a n 2 - 2 ^ million acres w o u l d be c o v e r e d b y s c h e m e s s u b m i t t e d w i t h i n t h e p r o p o s e d t e r m of eight years a n d they p u t t h e a v e r a g e c o s t p e r acre at a b o u t £30. T h e y c o n ­ sidered t h a t if s c h e m e s covering this a r e a of l a n d w e r e s u b m i t t e d t h e t o t a l cost of carrying t h e m o u t w o u l d t h e r e f o r e v a r y b e t w e e n £50 a n d £60 millions, r e p r e s e n t i n g a cost t o t h e E x c h e q u e r of £ 2 5 - £ 3 0 millions for a 50 per cent, g r a n t . I n a d d i t i o n to this a f u r t h e r s u m w o u l d h a v e t o b e p r o v i d e d t o e n a b l e g r a n t s t o b e c o n t i n u e d for schemes for hill f a r m i n g l a n d for t h e r e a s o n s already s t a t e d i n p a r a g r a p h 8 a b o v e ; for this they suggested £5 millions. T h e y t h o u g h t t h a t p r o v i s i o n should b e m a d e for a r e s e r v e of a further £5 millions t o be m a d e available b y O r d e r subject to the a p p r o v a l of t h e T r e a s u r y a n d P a r l i a m e n t . T h e y p o i n t e d o u t , h o w e v e r , t h a t even if t h e s e e s t i m a t e s w e r e realised t h e a c t u a l cost to t h e E x c h e q u e r w o u l d b e s o m e w h a t l o w e r since m u c h of t h e w o r k d o n e u n d e r the s c h e m e s w o u l d consist of i m p r o v e m e n t s , s u c h as liming, l a n d d r a i n a g e a n d w a t e r supplies, a l r e a d y able t o attract G o v e r n m e n t g r a n t u n d e r o t h e r a r r a n g e m e n t s . I n so f a r as this w o r k w a s done a n d p a i d for u n d e r a m a r g i n a l or hill l a n d i m p r o v e m e n t s c h e m e a saving w o u l d be effected i n t h e cost of t h e s e o t h e r g r a n t s so long as t h e y c o n t i n u e . 14. I n p a r a g r a p h 4 r e f e r e n c e w a s m a d e t o t h e existence o u t s i d e the m a i n m a r g i n a l l a n d a r e a s of s o m e 500,000 acres of l a n d of m a r g i n a l t y p e o c c u r r i n g for t h e most p a r t i n p o c k e t s or p a t c h e s , s o m e t i m e s as a n o d d field or t w o o n a n o t h e r w i s e n o r m a l a g r i c u l t u r a l holding. I n t h e view of t h e w o r k i n g p a r t y this l a n d is well w o r t h reclaiming, as it is c a p a b l e of a m a r k e d i n c r e a s e i n p r o d u c t i o n , b u t to t h e p r i v a t e i n d i v i d u a l t h e cost is p r o h i b i t i v e . M u c h of it is l a n d w h i c h , o n c e reclaimed, w o u l d b e a s g o o d as the a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d a r o u n d it. T h e i m p r o v e m e n t s r e q u i r e d a r e m a i n l y s h o r t - t e r m in c h a r a c t e r (such as m a n u r i n g , r e s e e d i n g a n d in c e r t a i n districts c l a y i n g a n d m a r l i n g ) ; b u t in s o m e p a r t s of t h e c o u n t r y l o n g e r - t e r m w o r k s such, as t h e p l a n t i n g of shelter belts, the i m p r o v e m e n t of f a r m r o a d s a n d d r a i n a g e a r e n e e d e d before w o r t h - w h i l e results a r e o b t a i n a b l e . T h e p r e s e n t m a r g i n a l agri­ cultural p r o d u c t i o n schemes a l r e a d y m a k e p r o v i s i o n for m o s t of these p u r p o s e s , b u t their s c o p e w o u l d n e e d to b e e x t e n d e d t o cover the few a d d i t i o n a l l o n g - t e r m i m p r o v e m e n t s a n d they w o u l d h a v e t o b e c o n t i n u e d for several y e a r s a h e a d instead of coming t o a n e n d in 1 9 5 2 - 5 3 . T h e w o r k i n g p a r t y r e c o m m e n d e d , therefore, t h a t assistance u n d e r t h e m a r g i n a l a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c t i o n schemes s h o u l d b e c o n t i n u e d with the w i d e n e d scope i n d i c a t e d u p t o the y e a r 1955-56, a n d t h e n b e subject to further r e v i e w . T h e y also c o n s i d e r e d t h a t assistance u n d e r t h e schemes s h o u l d be m a d e a v a i l a b l e to l a n d o w n e r s as well as t o occupiers. T h e G o v e r n m e n t are a l r e a d y c o m m i t t e d to the e x p e n d i t u r e of n e a r l y £4 millions u p t o 1 9 5 2 - 5 3 u n d e r t h e e x t e n ­ sions agreed a t t h e recent p r i c e review, a n d t h e w o r k i n g p a r t y c o n s i d e r e d t h a t the cost of this f u r t h e r e x t e n s i o n w o u l d b e a p p r o x i m a t e l y £5 millions. VIEWS AND RECOMMENDATIONS OF AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT COMMITTEE 15. T h e A g r i c u l t u r a l O u t p u t C o m m i t t e e h a v e c o n s i d e r e d t h e w o r k i n g p a r t y ' s conclusions a n d r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s . I n d o i n g s o they h a v e h a d r e g a r d t o v a r i o u s factors, o u t s i d e t h e s c o p e of t h e w o r k i n g p a r t y ' s study, s u c h as t h e c o u n t r y ' s capital i n v e s t m e n t p r o g r a m m e , a n d r e c e n t e s t i m a t e s , which h a v e o n l y just b e c o m e available, of the p r o s p e c t i v e l o n g - t e r m s u p p l y a n d d e m a n d p o s i t i o n for m e a t . 16. T h e r e c e n t review of t h e capital i n v e s t m e n t p r o g r a m m e h a s s h o w n t h a t for s o m e y e a r s a h e a d severe r e s t r i c t i o n s o n i n v e s t m e n t a r e likely t o b e r e q u i r e d . T h e p r o g r a m m e of m a r g i n a l l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t c o n t e m p l a t e d b y t h e w o r k i n g p a r t y w o u l d i m p l y a n i n v e s t m e n t of s o m e £10 millions a y e a r from p u b l i c a n d p r i v a t e funds for eight y e a r s . T h i s i n v e s t m e n t m i g h t b e e x p e c t e d t o yield a n a v e r a g e net r e t u r n of a b o u t 4 p e r cent, r e l a t e d t o 2-2% million acres (see p a r a g r a p h 7 a b o v e ) . C u r r e n t l i m i t a t i o n s r e q u i r e t h a t m o s t n e w i n v e s t m e n t t o - d a y , a t least in i n d u s t r i e s other t h a n a g r i c u l t u r e , shall b e e x p e c t e d to yield a m u c h higher r e t u r n t h a n this if it is to b e j u d g e d o n a c o m m e r c i a l basis. O n t h e o t h e r h a n d , historically i n v e s t m e n t in p e r m a n e n t i m p r o v e m e n t s in agriculture h a s n o t n o r m a l l y b e e n e x p e c t e d t o yield so h i g h a r e t u r n as i n v e s t m e n t in o t h e r industries. Half t h e cost of this m a r g i n a l l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t w o u l d fall on t h e E x c h e q u e r ; there w o u l d t h e r e f o r e b e a small b u t direct B u d g e t a r y strain. T h e C o m m i t t e e are agreed t h a t i n p r e s e n t c i r c u m s t a n c e s t h e case for giving G o v e r n m e n t g r a n t s o n t h e scale suggested b y t h e w o r k i n g p a r t y , which w o u l d divert savings, p u b l i c a n d p r i v a t e , t o a n i n v e s t m e n t which offers t h e p r o s p e c t s of e a r n i n g a yield of the o r d e r c o n t e m p l a t e d , a l t h o u g h c o n t i n u e d o v e r a relatively long p e r i o d , m u s t rest o n o t h e r t h a n e c o n o m i c g r o u n d s , such as t h o s e of n a t i o n a l security, social desirability or physical n e e d . T h e r e m a y , h o w e v e r , well b e a smaller a r e a of m a r g i n a l l a n d c a p a b l e of yielding a r e t u r n c o n s i d e r a b l y a b o v e the a v e r a g e , w h e r e i n v e s t m e n t m i g h t b e justified o n e c o n o m i c g r o u n d s , b u t m i g h t nevertheless n o t b e u n d e r t a k e n privately w i t h o u t assistance. 17. A s r e g a r d s physical need, t h e results of t h e m o s t recent M i n i s t r y of F o o d survey of t h e prospective f u t u r e supplies of a n d d e m a n d for m e a t i n d i c a t e t h a t against a g a p of 150,000 t o 300,000 t o n s b e t w e e n p r e s e n t c o n s u m p t i o n a n d p o t e n t i a l d e m a n d , increased supplies of s o m e t h i n g b e t w e e n 200,000 t o 300,000 tons m i g h t b e e x p e c t e d w i t h o u t t a k i n g i n t o a c c o u n t a n y further d e v e l o p m e n t of m a r g i n a l l a n d s . T h e s e estimates a r e , h o w e v e r , necessarily subject to w i d e m a r g i n s of e r r o r . T h o s e for p o t e n t i a l d e m a n d a r e b a s e d o n a r e c e n t survey m a d e a m o n g retail b u t c h e r s . T h i s i n d i c a t e d t h a t if prices a n d q u a l i t y r e m a i n e d u n c h a n g e d t h e a v e r a g e v a l u e of r a t i o n e d m e a t r e q u i r e d t o satisfy c o n s u m e r s w o u l d b e at a level of Is. %\d. p e r h e a d per w e e k ; while if prices r e m a i n u n c h a n g e d b u t a free choice of q u a l i t y w e r e p e r m i t t e d t h e level m i g h t rise t o Is. 9\d. T h i s e s t i m a t e is well b e l o w t h e earlier e s t i m a t e of 2s. 2d. a n d t h e r e d u c e d d e m a n d for m e a t is p r o b a b l y i n p a r t a reflection of t h e i n c r e a e d p r e s s u r e on p e r s o n a l i n c o m e s a n d in p a r t d u e t o t h e i m p r o v e d supplies of o t h e r foods. * T h e estimates of f u t u r e supplies t a k e i n t o a c c o u n t a fairly optimistic e s t i m a t e of a n i n c r e a s e of 100,000 tons of c a r c a s e m e a t p e r a n n u m in t h e s u p p l i e s f r o m t h e A r g e n t i n e , Brazil a n d t h e s o u t h e r n M e m b e r s of t h e C o m ­ m o n w e a l t h as well a s increases in t h e p r o d u c t i o n of m e a t at h o m e as a r e s u l t of the a g r i c u l t u r a l e x p a n s i o n p r o g r a m m e , t h e targets for which in beef, veal, m u t t o n a n d l a m b seem a l m o s t c e r t a i n t o b e realised. 18. I n their c o n s i d e r a t i o n of t h e general p r o b l e m of m a r g i n a l l a n d i m p r o v e ­ m e n t t h e A g r i c u l t u r a l O u t p u t C o m m i t t e e h a v e b o r n e in m i n d b o t h t h e w i d e m a r g i n s of e r r o r c o n t a i n e d in t h e s e e s t i m a t e s of f u t u r e supply a n d d e m a n d a n d t h e u n c e r ­ tainty of s u p p l y f r o m s o m e c o u n t r i e s a b r o a d , e.g., t h e A r g e n t i n e . T h e y h a v e also h a d r e g a r d t o t h e w o r k i n g p a r t y ' s c o n c l u s i o n t h a t , if assistance of t h e k i n d r e c o m ­ m e n d e d is n o t m a d e available for m a r g i n a l l a n d , t h e n n o t only c a n n o i n c r e a s e in p r o d u c t i o n f r o m this l a n d b e e x p e c t e d b u t a n a c t u a l d e c r e a s e will a l m o s t c e r t a i n l y result as t h e f a r m s b e c o m e less efficient o r even go o u t of p r o d u c t i o n t h r o u g h l a c k of c a p i t a l for m a i n t a i n i n g fertility a n d m a k i n g i m p r o v e m e n t s designed t o m a k e it w o r t h w h i l e t o k e e p t h e m going. A s the w o r k i n g p a r t y e m p h a s i s e d , t h e r e is n e e d for assistance in m a n y m a r g i n a l a r e a s o n social g r o u n d s alone, for w i t h o u t t h e provision of r e a s o n a b l e amenities t h e a l r e a d y s p a r s e p o p u l a t i o n is b o u n d to decline still further. (It is u n d e r s t o o d t h a t t h e W e l s h A d v i s o r y Council is a b o u t to s u b m i t a r e p o r t o n t h e social need for G o v e r n m e n t assistance in m a r g i n a l l a n d a r e a s in Wales). T h e r e is also t h e n e e d o n security g r o u n d s for d e v e l o p i n g h o m e m e a t p r o d u c t i o n in such a w a y as w o u l d m o s t r e d u c e o u r d e p e n d e n c e o n o v e r s e a s supplies in t i m e of w a r . * The Treasury, Central Economic Planning Staff, Economic Section and the Ministry of Food point out that the demand for meat is at present stimulated by a subsidy amounting to about £35 millions on carcase meat. They argue that if the subsidy were removed or substantially reduced, it might well be possible to satisfy demand with little or no increase in the present level of supplies. These Departments further infer that there must be a substantial risk that the extra meat, which would be produced as a result of marginal land development, could not be sold at present prices. 19, T h e s e v a r i o u s c o n s i d e r a t i o n s h a v e led the A g r i c u l t u r a l O u t p u t C o m m i t t e e t o c o n c l u d e t h a t t h e w o r k i n g p a r t y V r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s a r e in p r i n c i p l e s o u n d a n d well conceived. I n view, h o w e v e r , of t h e i n v e s t m e n t c o n s i d e r a t i o n s a n d since the n e e d for e x t r a m e a t is n o t n o w c o n s i d e r e d by t h e M i n i s t r y of F o o d t o b e so urgent o r so g r e a t as h a d h i t h e r t o b e e n t h o u g h t , t h e C o m m i t t e e c o n s i d e r t h a t a m o r e m o d e s t a n d c a u t i o u s a p p r o a c h s h o u l d b e m a d e t o t h e p r o b l e m of i m p r o v i n g r t h e p r o d u c t i v i t y of m a r g i n a l l a n d t h a n t h a t p r o p o s e d b y the w o r k i n g p a r t y , a n d t h a t a t t e n t i o n s h o u l d b e c o n c e n t r a t e d o n the l a n d w h i c h w o u l d yield t h e h i g h e s t r e t u r n s . T h e y r e c o m m e n d therefore t h a t , a t least for a n initial p e r i o d of five y e a r s , the p r o ­ vision of financial assistance for long a n d s h o r t t e r m i m p r o v e m e n t s c h e m e s of the k i n d r e c o m m e n d e d b y t h e w o r k i n g p a r t y s h o u l d b e limited t o (say) t h e first million acres of m a r g i n a l l a n d in t h e U n i t e d K i n g d o m w h o s e i m p r o v e m e n t will be m o s t w o r t h while.* R e t u r n s f r o m this a r e a m i g h t b e a p p r e c i a b l y b e t t e r t h a n t h e average of 4 p e r cent, e s t i m a t e d for the w h o l e 2-2^- million acres c o n t e m p l a t e d b y t h e w o r k i n g p a r t y . T h e r e s h o u l d b e little a d m i n i s t r a t i v e difficulty in p r o v i d i n g for such a limitation b y t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n of suitable s t a n d a r d s of a p p r a i s a l . T h e cost of p r o v i d i n g for 50 p e r cent, g r a n t s b y a n e x t e n s i o n of the Hill F a r m i n g A c t to c o v e r i m p r o v e m e n t schemes for this a r e a w o u l d b e a b o u t £10 millions, while a n o t h e r £ 5 millions m i g h t be n e e d e d for t h e extension for a further five y e a r s of the existing provision for hill farming l a n d i m p r o v e m e n t schemes, giving a total of the o r d e r of £15 millions, t o w h i c h o u g h t t o b e a d d e d a n a d d i t i o n a l reserve of £ 2 millions t o b e m a d e available in case of n e e d b y O r d e r of t h e M i n i s t e r s m a d e w i t h t h e a p p r o v a l of t h e T r e a s u r y a n d of P a r l i a m e n t . While g r a n t s w o u l d b e c o n f i n e d t o applica­ tions s u b m i t t e d within five years, the r e s u l t a n t e x p e n d i t u r e w o u l d b e s p r e a d over a longer p e r i o d as there is a c o n s i d e r a b l e t i m e lag b e t w e e n s u b m i s s i o n of a n i m p r o v e ­ m e n t s c h e m e a n d p a y m e n t of g r a n t o n c o m p l e t i o n of the w o r k . T h e average call o n t h e E x c h e q u e r m i g h t n o t t h e r e f o r e exceed £2 millions a year. I n addition, t h e A g r i c u l t u r a l O u t p u t C o m m i t t e e consider t h a t in o r d e r to p r o v i d e for the r e c o m ­ m e n d e d e x t e n s i o n s of t h e m a r g i n a l agricultural p r o d u c t i o n s c h e m e s the s u m of a b o u t £4 millions at p r e s e n t available for assistance u n d e r t h e schemes until 1952-53 s h o u l d b e increased t o £8 millions for the p e r i o d until 1 9 5 5 - 5 6 . Departmental Staff 20. I n their r e p o r t t h e w o r k i n g p a r t y d r e w a t t e n t i o n t o t h e s t r a i n a l r e a d y p u t u p o n t h e A g r i c u l t u r e D e p a r t m e n t s ' h e a d q u a r t e r s , local a n d field staffs b y t h e e x a m i n a t i o n of hill f a r m i n g i m p r o v e m e n t s c h e m e s a n d they e m p h a s i s e d t h a t a d d i ­ tional staff w o u l d b e necessary if t h e a p p r o v a l a n d execution of t h e c o n t e m p l a t e d schemes for m a r g i n a l l a n d w e r e n o t t o be seriously delayed a n d t h a t the r e t u r n to be o b t a i n e d will largely d e p e n d o n t h e a d e q u a c y of t h e advisory services available to f a r m e r s . T h e A g r i c u l t u r a l O u t p u t C o m m i t t e e strongly e n d o r s e this v i e w ; delay of this k i n d w o u l d seriously e n d a n g e r t h e success of the e x t e n d e d m e a s u r e s of assistance. T h e total n u m b e r of e x t r a staff r e q u i r e d w o u l d b e r a t h e r over 200, of w h o m say 100 w o u l d b e technical staff in t h e counties, a b o u t 7 0 clerical staff in t h e c o u n t r i e s a n d 40 clerical a n d executive staff a t h e a d q u a r t e r s . Hill Sheep and Hill Cattle Subsidies 2 1 . T h e A g r i c u l t u r a l O u t p u t C o m m i t t e e h a v e also c o n s i d e r e d the situation t h a t will arise w h e n t h e provisions of t h e Hill F a r m i n g Act, 1946, relating t o the hill s h e e p a n d hill cattle subsidies expire in 1951. Hill f a r m i n g — a n d in the present c o n t e x t this t e r m applies to m u c h of the f a r m i n g o n the m a i n m a r g i n a l land a r e a s — is peculiar in t h a t w i t h the e x c e p t i o n of w o o l it p r o d u c e s few e n d p r o d u c t s a n d so hill f a r m e r s d o n o t benefit t o t h e s a m e e x t e n t as o t h e r p r o d u c e r s f r o m the system of g u a r a n t e e d prices a n d m a r k e t s . T h e prices of t h e chief p r o d u c t s (store sheep a n d cattle) are liable t o fluctuate—at least in the s h o r t t e r m - f r o m causes o t h e r t h a n those affecting fat stock prices. T h e hill sheep s u b s i d y in p a r t i c u l a r is designed t o c o u n t e r a c t these v a r i a t i o n s in hill f a r m e r s ' i n c o m e ; t h e r a t e prescribed a n n u a l l y b y t h e Ministers is b a s e d o n t h e e c o n o m i c r e t u r n s to hill sheep farmers in t h e p r e c e d i n g year a n d adjusted so as t o m a i n t a i n the level of incomes as steady as possible. A failure t o r e n e w this s u b s i d y w o u l d — i n the a b s e n c e of s o m e o t h e r m e a s u r e similar in d e s i g n — t e n d t o u n d e r m i n e confidence in t h e future of the i n d u s t r y a n d m i g h t well lead t o a decline in t h e f o u n d a t i o n flocks of hill s h e e p . * The Treasury, Central Economic Planning Staff and Economic Section dissent from the Agricultural Output Committee's recommendation in respect of short term improvements, described in more detail in paragraph 11. In their view the expenditure of public funds on units not capable of becoming economic is unjustified. 22. T h e hill c a t t l e subsidies differ f r o m the hill s h e e p subsidy in t h a t they a r e paid a t r a t e s fixed w i t h o u t r e g a r d to t h e i n d u s t r y ^ level of i n c o m e a n d are designed t o s t i m u l a t e a n i n c r e a s e in t h e b r e e d i n g a n d r e a r i n g of cattle o n hill l a n d . I n S c o t l a n d t h e subsidy is p a i d only o n b r e e d i n g cows a n d heifers. T h e scheme in E n g l a n d a n d W a l e s provides for t w o r a t e s of s u b s i d y : (a) for breeding cows arid heifers, a n d (b) for o t h e r s t o c k s u m m e r e d on t h e hill l a n d . T h i s scheme h a s t h e a d d i t i o n a l p u r p o s e of e n c o u r a g i n g the stocking of hill l a n d so as t o relieve t h e pressure o n l o w l a n d p a s t u r e s d u r i n g the s u m m e r m o n t h s a n d also t o e n c o u r a g e t h e i m p r o v e m e n t of hill g r a z i n g s themselves b y t h e benefit t o t h e h e r b a g e of t h e grazing a n d m a n u r i n g of t h e c a t t l e . T h e c o m p l e t e cessation of the schemes in 1951 w o u l d b e undesirable for t h e following r e a s o n s : ­ (a) I t w o u l d t e n d to c r e a t e a set-back t o the e x p a n d i n g cattle p o p u l a t i o n of t h e hills, since it w o u l d r o u g h l y coincide with t h e w i t h d r a w a l of t h e calf-rearing s u b s i d y ; (b) F a r m e r s c a r r y i n g o u t i m p r o v e m e n t schemes o n hill l a n d w o u l d n e e d t h e a d d i t i o n a l i n c o m e afforded by t h e subsidy to e n a b l e t h e m t o p u r c h a s e c a t t l e for increasing t h e stocking of the i m p r o v e d p a s t u r e s ; (c) N o w t h a t milk p r o d u c t i o n h a s r e a c h e d t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s of t h e liquid m a r k e t , it is d e s i r a b l e t o e n c o u r a g e milk p r o d u c e r s o n r e m o t e hill farms t o t u r n over t o stock r e a r i n g , a n d t h e c o n t i n u a t i o n of the hill cattle s u b s i d y w o u l d assist this p r o c e s s t h o u g h it is n o t t h e only m e a n s of d o i n g so. 23. B o t h of t h e s e schemes h a v e been w o r k i n g well a n d for t h e r e a s o n s given in p a r a g r a p h s 21 a n d 22 t h e C o m m i t t e e feel t h a t provision o u g h t to b e m a d e for their c o n t i n u a n c e for a further five years after the expiry of t h e p r e s e n t s t a t u t o r y a u t h o r i t y . T h e cost of t h e hill s h e e p s c h e m e , b u t n o t of t h e hill cattle s c h e m e , is likely i n t h e absence of a n y disaster s u c h as o c c u r r e d in t h e w i n t e r of 1946-47 t o be o n a d i m i n i s h i n g s c a l e — t h e a v e r a g e a n n u a l cost d u r i n g t h e five-year p e r i o d for the U n i t e d K i n g d o m p r o b a b l y being of t h e o r d e r of £600,000 as c o m p a r e d with t h e e s t i m a t e d cost in 1950 of £1,200,000. T h e total cost of b o t h subsidies for t h e five y e a r s is e s t i m a t e d at a b o u t £11 millions. I n a n y event the a m o u n t of these subsidies is t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t in calculating the f a r m e r s ' g l o b a l n e t i n c o m e a t t h e F e b r u a r y price review. I n s o far as the object of t h e price reviews is t o p r o d u c e a p r e d e t e r m i n e d aggregate net income, t h e a m o u n t of t h e hill sheep a n d cattle subsidies m u s t p r o d u c e a c o r r e s p o n d i n g price r e d u c t i o n elsewhere. T h e cost falling o n the c o n s u m e r o r t a x p a y e r is therefore n o g r e a t e r in t h e e n d . It should b e n o t e d t h a t t h e s e subsidies, n o w costing £ 2 ^ - 3 millions per a n n u m , are a d d i t i o n a l t o the loss of £35 millions a y e a r b o r n e b y t h e M i n i s t r y of F o o d o n h o m e - p r o d u c e d meat. 24. T h e C o m m i t t e e also call a t t e n t i o n t o t h e w o r k i n g p a r t y ' s r e c o m m e n d a ­ tions r e g a r d i n g t h e establishment of r u r a l d e v e l o p m e n t a r e a s for m a r g i n a l l a n d o n the b r o a d principles of t h e D i s t r i b u t i o n of I n d u s t r y Act, 1945 (see p a r a g r a p h 12), as likely to b e of interest to M i n i s t e r s , p a r t i c u l a r l y t h o s e c o n c e r n e d w i t h r u r a l d e v e l o p m e n t i n W a l e s . T h e C o m m i t t e e m a k e n o specific r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s o n this subject, h o w e v e r , since it is o n e w h i c h also concerns D e p a r t m e n t s n o t r e p r e s e n t e d o n the C o m m i t t e e . SUMMARY ii) T h e r e are s o m e 3Jr t o 4 million acres in the U n i t e d K i n g d o m in t h e m a i n hill a n d u p l a n d a r e a s of t h e c o u n t r y , in a d d i t i o n t o hill f a r m i n g l a n d covered b y the Hill F a r m i n g A c t , t h e p r o d u c t i v i t y of w h i c h c o u l d b e m a t e r i a l l y increased b y l o n g - t e r m rehabilitation s c h e m e s of i m p r o v e m e n t similar t o t h o s e already p r o v i d e d for u n d e r t h e Hill F a r m i n g A c t . I n view, h o w e v e r , of t h e limitations placed o n new i n v e s t m e n t a n d of the m o s t recent estimates b y the M i n i s t r y of F o o d of t h e supply of, a n d d e m a n d for, m e a t , it is r e c o m m e n d e d t h a t financial assistance for v o l u n t a r y schemes of i m p r o v e m e n t s h o u l d for the p r e s e n t b e limited to the million acres of this l a n d t h a t is m o s t w o r t h while i m p r o v i n g . T h e Hill F a r m i n g A c t m i g h t b e e x t e n d e d a n d a m e n d e d t o e n a b l e 50 per cent, g r a n t s t o b e m a d e for this p u r p o s e a n d also t o c o n t i n u e t h e existing p r o v i s i o n s relating to t h e i m p r o v e m e n t of hill f a r m i n g l a n d . T h e e x t e n s i o n s h o u l d a p p l y t o schemes s u b m i t t e d within a p e r i o d of five y e a r s . (ii) T h e e x t r a cost of t h e E x c h e q u e r (to b e i n c u r r e d over a p e r i o d of a b o u t eight yearsj is e s t i m a t e d a t a b o u t £15 millions, a n d it is r e c o m m e n d e d t h a t this s u m s h o u l d b e m a d e available u n d e r p r o j e c t e d legislation. T o this s u m s h o u l d be a d d e d £2 millions t o b e h e l d in reserve a n d m a d e available for g r a n t b y O r d e r in c a s e of n e e d . (iii) T h e m a r g i n a l agricultural p r o d u c t i o n schemes s h o u l d b e e x t e n d e d so as to p r o v i d e , in a d d i t i o n t o assistance in its p r e s e n t f o r m , g r a n t s for t h e i m p r o v e m e n t of m a r g i n a l l a n d n o t i n t h e m a i n hill a n d u p l a n d a r e a s , w h i c h b y r e c l a m a t i o n or i m p r o v e m e n t could s h o w a m a r k e d i n c r e a s e in p r o d u c t i o n a n d w h e r e o w i n g t o the cost t h e a p p l i c a n t c o u l d n o t b e e x p e c t e d t o d o t h e w o r k a t his o w n e x p e n s e or w i t h t h e aid of g r a n t s a l r e a d y available. F o r this p u r p o s e the schemes s h o u l d be e x t e n d e d t o the y e a r 1955-56, subject t o r e v i e w at the e n d of the p e r i o d . T h e £4 millions a l r e a d y available for assistance u n d e r t h e s e schemes u n t i l 1 9 5 2 - 5 3 s h o u l d b e increased t o £8 millions for t h e p e r i o d until 1 9 5 5 - 5 6 . (iv) Assistance s h o u l d n o t b e m a d e available for full r e h a b i l i t a t i o n s c h e m e s relating t o holdings w h i c h are n o t likely t o b e c o m e e c o n o m i c w i t h o u t special m e a s u r e s n o t available t o the o r d i n a r y l a n d o w n e r s or o c c u p i e r s ; assistance for limited schemes of s h o r t - t e r m i m p r o v e m e n t s s h o u l d h o w e v e r b e given t o units of this k i n d w h e r e t h e p r o b a b l e i n c r e a s e in r e t u r n s w o u l d m a k e this w o r t h while. T h e l o n g - t e r m p r o b l e m of these holdings s h o u l d b e s t u d i e d b y t h e A g r i c u l t u r a l L a n d C o m m i s s i o n in E n g l a n d a n d W a l e s a n d its e q u i v a l e n t in Scotland. (v) P r o v i s i o n s h o u l d b e m a d e in the e x t e n d e d H i l l F a r m i n g A c t for the c o n t i n u a n c e of s u b s i d y s c h e m e s for hill s h e e p a n d cattle, subject t o t h e a p p r o v a l of t h e T r e a s u r y a n d of P a r l i a m e n t . T h e c o s t , w h i c h s h o u l d b e on a d i m i n i s h i n g scale, is e s t i m a t e d t o a m o u n t t o a total of £11 millions f o r t h e five years. May, 1950