The Tahoe Climate Information Management System (TahoeClim) A Proposal to SNPLMA (Southern Nevada Land Planning and Management Agency) Round 10 Air Quality and Meteorology Sub-theme: 3c. Understanding Basin Meteorology, Item 1. A Joint Collaboration Between DRI and UC Davis PI: Dr. Kelly T. Redmond Desert Research Institute 2215 Raggio Parkway Reno, NV 89512 Phone: (775) 674-7011 FAX: 775-674-7016 Email: kelly.redmond@dri.edu and Co-PI : Dr. Geoffrey Schladow Tahoe Environmental Research Center University of California- Davis One Shields Ave Davis, CA 95617 Davis, California 95617 Phone: 530-752-3942 FAX: 530 754 9364 Email: gschladow@ucdavis.edu Agency Collaborators: Shane Romsos Tahoe Regional Planning Agency Phone number: (775) 588-5201 Fax: (775) 588-4527 PO Box 5310, Stateline, NV 89449 Patrick Wright California Tahoe Conservancy Phone number: (530) 543-6002 1061 Third Street South Lake Tahoe, CA 96150 sromsos@trpa.org Business Contacts: Lycia Ronchetti Desert Research Institute 775-673-7411 voice 775-674-7016 fax Lycia.Ronchetti@dri.edu George Malyj University of California - Davis 530-754-8372 voice 530-754-9364 fax gjmalyj@ucdavis.edu Funding Requested DRI : $174,652 UC Davis : $131,300 Total : $305,952 Period: 2 Years; 2010 July 01 - 2012 June 30 Proposal Narrative a. Project Abstract Weather and climate are well understood to be very important as primary drivers of atmospheric, ecological, limnological, biological, geological, hydrological and economic processes affecting the basin in myriad ways. Within the Tahoe Basin a heavy and steady demand for such information exists, and a large amount of data and information already exist, but are not fully validated, processed or available from any single authoritative source. A joint collaboration between the Western Regional Climate Center at DRI in Reno and the UC Davis Tahoe Environmental Research Center (TERC) will develop an accessible archive of historical and current meteorological and climatological data for the Tahoe Basin. The Tahoe Climate Information Management System (TahoeClim) will include all past and present observations from the principal weather and climate networks operating in the basin and NASA space-borne thermal infrared imagery. A variety of specialized sites on and near the lake, and in and near the basin, will likewise be incorporated, including a small number to be added or augmented during this project. The data flow and management system will be established to allow the continued assimilation and archiving of real-time data in the future. The data sets will include direct measurements from in situ locations, interpolated and infilled data on fine grids, threedimensional hourly fields of data from the last five years, and synthesized information in the form of products, many of which can be generated directly by the users and therefore be more responsive to their needs. The intended audience encompasses the public, managers, politicians, the press, educators and students, but will meet the more stringent demands and standards of the environmental research community. b. Justification Statement The proposed study addresses all three of the issues called out in the sub-theme description. Specifically: 1. “Identify past and current meteorological measurement efforts”. “Compile into a publicly available data base existing meteorological data for the Tahoe Basin”. “…develop a database for air quality and meteorological modeling in and around the basin”. 2. “Develop and/or improve meteorological data and monitoring tools for use in forecasting and making burn day decisions for prescribed fires as well as contributing to a better understanding of climate variability and watershed runoff processes”. 3. “Develop and/or improve monitoring tools and monitoring plans to obtain more comprehensive localized point source precipitation, surface runoff, erosion, and nutrient transport data …”. While not specifically addressing runoff, erosion, discharge loads etc., the compilation and validation of all existing meteorological data and the development of consistent spatial interpolations of these data is a fundamental prerequisite for the improved estimation of all hydrologic fluxes. c. Concise background and problem statement Climate is a pervasive influence in the Lake Tahoe Basin. The fluctuations of weather and climate constitute a major environmental driver for the region. Hydrologic processes are greatly affected by average and extreme conditions experienced around the lake. Air quality within the basin is affected by meteorological conditions, which in turn affect flow trajectories, and the transport and transformation of atmospheric constituents related to air quality and basin visibility. Vegetative growth and fire conditions are significantly determined by atmospheric conditions, 2 and decisions on the timing of controlled burns and firefighting operations during wildfires need to be based on the most accurate and current meteorological conditions. In addition, climate and weather are integral to the recreation-based economy in both winter and in summer. The dynamics of Lake Tahoe itself are controlled by processes at the air-water interface. Evaporation, wind-driven currents, the thermal stratification of the lake, deep mixing events, and other phenomena are affected by conditions in the atmosphere overlying the water. The characteristics, rates, and amounts of sediment and chemical inputs to the lake from the watershed and from the air are strongly affected by weather events. One-,two- and threedimensional lake models are available to characterize and understand lake circulations, but these require spatially and temporally variable fields of atmospheric drivers as input in order to reduce model uncertainties and to improve (TERC, 2009). Equally important, the ability to use such models to understand the impacts of future climate change on the lake must be predicated on the knowledge and understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of the past and present climate conditions. To date there has been no systematic effort to identify gaps in atmospheric monitoring, nor a basin-wide strategy to address such deficiencies. The CIRMOUNT Consortium (2006) has consistently highlighted the urgent need for monitoring and observations in high-elevation regions, starting with its first Mountain Climate Science Symposium at Kings Beach, May 25-27, 2004, and at all subsequent MTNCLIM meetings. Needs for information on climate variability and its effects within the basin, and increasingly, for information on climate change, have been reiterated at recent Tahoe Science Consortium Workshops (2008, 2009), and reflected in science priorities for the Basin (Long, 2009). There is high demand for data and information about weather and climate. At present, this information is widely scattered and must be assembled from a variety of existing sources. This places an undue, unnecessary and ultimately expensive burden on every user or project that requires such data. Aside from the time and cost involved, there is heightened potential for errors to be made. There is no single authoritative source that provides easy access to the major data sets pertinent to the basin. The purpose of this proposal is to address these deficiencies and create a system that may be easily continued and expanded into the future. d. Goals, objectives, and hypotheses to be tested As a joint collaboration between DRI and UC Davis, the goal of this activity is to the extent possible build on existing infrastructure, capabilities and efforts to create a state-of-the-art, accessible system for Lake Tahoe historical, current and future weather and climate data and information that can be used for research, management, public health and safety, and educational purposes. The main objectives are: 1. Develop a web site for the provision of meteorological and atmospheric data relevant to the Lake Tahoe basin. 2. Identify potential data sets and develop automated methods for data ingest to continuously update the web site. 3. Highlight gaps in the current Tahoe Basin environmental monitoring activities. Augment and improve measurements at selected key sites. 3 4. Produce a range of standard “value-added” meteorological products including hourly, daily and monthly interpolated wind fields at a fine scale grid over the lake surface. There are no formalized hypotheses that are being tested. e. Approach, methodology and location of research A fundamental underpinning of our approach is to build heavily and where possible on existing infrastructure. Some of the data sets of interest are already held by the Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC), which receives base funding from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and is housed at the Desert Research Institute (DRI). Others are accessible via the WRCC-Scripps California Climate Data Archive (CCDA, funded by the California Energy Commission, CEC) at www.calclim.dri.edu. An additional effort is under way with the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR) and the California State Climate Office to utilize the Regional Climate Center (RCC) Applied Climate Information System (ACIS) to provide for methods to both access and summarize California climate data. The latter includes specific data gathered by the California Cooperative Snow Survey. Web site A special web site -- the Tahoe Climate Information for Management System (TahoeClim) -will be created that provides access to data sets for a broad and varied audience, extending from the average public to the research community. Data sets of interest will be available as in situ station data and in gridded form. In addition, provision for aggregated index information useful for tracking selected aspects of the status of the entire basin will be developed (through consultation with Basin agencies (see Linkages, below, with users directly, and via web feedback mechanisms). The interface will be somewhat patterned after the CalClim interface (www.calclim.dri.edu, also Figure 1) which is being upgraded to a Google format, to allowing zooming to separate closely spaced but very different stations. The ACIS approach requires station metadata, so stations without sufficient documentation will not be included. The location of the research will be at DRI and at the Tahoe Environmental Research Center. The geographic area of interest would encompass the Tahoe hydrologic basin, and extend to nearby locations whose data are relevant to the basin. For each data source, a one-time activity would be to obtain all historical data, and ingest into WRCC Applied Climate Information System. Thereafter, for each data source, an automated ingest and archive procedure would be set up. Many of these are already operational, merely needing specific adjustments to suit the TahoeClim web site. In general they do not require significant ongoing attention, but must be lightly monitored nevertheless. WRCC has extensive experience in this, with thousands of stations now coming in automatically on an hourly and daily basis. In addition, tools and applications software to summarize and visualize data already exist, compatible with the ACIS format, and these are in a continual state of development (Figures 2-4). An overview of the main data sources includes the following: Station data The following station data would be considered and likely included: NOAA daily National Weather Service cooperative station data; Airport sensors from South Lake Tahoe, Truckee, Blue Canyon, and Reno; various data sets from the Central Sierra Snow Lab; Natural Resources Conservation Service Snotel (NRCS) sites; interagency Remote Automatic Weather Station 4 (RAWS) sites; various data stations managed by WRCC-DRI (Slide Mountain, Carson City, Central Sierra Snow Lab, Sugar Bowl Upper/Lower, Onion Creek, Cisco, Alpha, Incline Village); stations maintained by the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR) and available through its California Data Exchange Center (CDEC); air quality sites and profiler data maintained by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) including the RASS and miniSODAR data from the Lake Tahoe Atmospheric Deposition Study (LTADS); State and federal Department of Transportation and CalTrans roadside sensors; and USGS gaging stations and USGS lake level. The largest source of lake-specific meteorological data come from stations operated by TERC and NASA-JPL under the responsibility of the co-PI (Schladow). TERC currently operates 6 weather stations on piers around the lake, and two data rafts at the southern end of the lake (http://remote.ucdavis.edu/tahoe_location.asp). TERC in collaboration with NASA-JPL also operates 4 meteorological buoys on the lake (http://laketahoe.jpl.nasa.gov/). These two data sets provide the only on-lake meteorological data available, and are available as far back as 1998 (Figure 5). Both data sets are collated in different databases, that could readily be part of this new archive and retrieval system. Due to the low level of funding that has been available to maintain these sites, effort will need to be expended in cleaning and validating the data sets, and to ensuring that these critical data continue to be calibrated and maintained at the highest standard. Other relevant data stations operated by these two groups include platforms for UV radiation (6 bands) and PAR radiation, whole-sky camera imagery, and a shadow-band radiometer. In addition, NASA and TERC have been archiving thermal infrared data for the surface temperature of Lake Tahoe back to 1992 (Schneider et al. 2009). These data are the longest duration, medium temporal resolution (daily) data on climate change impacts to the lake itself, and are an important data source for future climate change studies. These data will be included in TahoeCLIM. Selection criteria for all data for inclusion will include overall utility of the data, length of record, availability of metadata, quality of data, quality of metadata, access to original data, completeness of data, uniqueness of data, and ease of routinely and automatically providing upgrades to the data. New stations will be added, and existing stations augmented, and data from these sensors and sites will be ingested as well. Gridded data. Surface (two-dimensional). The most desirable data set consists of the PRISM (Daly, et al., 2008) 4 km gridded monthly time series of temperature and precipitation from 1895 through present. These are already available via the Westmap tool at WRCC. An 800 meter resolution version of PRISM may become available during the course of this project. Tahoe Basin is small enough to support data at this spacing, and altitudinal gradients are such that it is highly desirable. Hourly surface layer data from numerical model initialization runs, updated 4 times a day, are available from 2004 onward via CANSAC (see below). Short-term forecasts (3-15 hours, skipping the first few hours as the model adjusts to slight inconsistencies in the initialization data) can serve as assimilated “observations.” Three dimensional. For several years CANSAC has been running numerical forecast models at 4 km resolution over the Tahoe Basin and surrounding areas. CANSAC employs standard models 5 in widespread use, developed for complex topography -- primarily MM5 but also WRF and perhaps the Omega model. These models provide data for at least 30-35 layers in the atmosphere, necessary for estimating airflow trajectories. The entire archive will be available to this project. Indicator and index data Basin-average temperature and precipitation would be made available and would be accessible via existing visualization tools, slightly modified for this purpose. The Sierra Region and nearby regions from the California Climate Tracker would be available. A freezing level tool to track rapid and slow changes in the snow line would be available. A few indicators of climate change (for example basin-averaged temperature and precipitation, from PRISM) would be produced. Most of these data sets are at least 30, and usually 60 or more years in length. A real-time UV Index will also be produced from the 10 minute data that are collected by TERC. Monitoring improvements and other UCD activities TERC and NASA-JPL currently operate the only real-time meteorological data collection systems directly on the lake (Figure 5). Given their location on buoys and piers, these stations are subject to both extreme meteorological and lake conditions and require high levels of maintenance. In the past, routine maintenance (including calibration and swap out of sensors) has been conducted if and when funding was available. During the tenure of this project, maintenance of the stations will be provided through project funds. As evident from Figure 5, there are no meteorological stations between Cave Rock, NV, and Tahoe Vista, CA, in the north east of the lake. This is a critical gap, as it omits one of the main population centers of the lake (Incline Village/Crystal Bay). Consequently, wind speed and direction in this area is highly uncertain, as winds over Lake Tahoe exhibit considerable high variability (see Figure 6). As part of this project, an additional meteorological station (wind speed and direction, air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation and water temperature) will be sighted at a location in the north east portion of the lake (exact location to be determined). Several high value instruments (UV radiometer, shadow-band radiometer, all-sky camera) presently exist but are not an integral part of the data network. As part of this project, all these instruments will be made operational and integrated with either the UC Davis or NASA-JPL data networks, and from there ported to TahoeClim. For the lake surface itself, high spatial (<1 km) and temporal (1 hour) resolution data are needed to drive three-dimensional lake models, and to reduce model uncertainty (Rueda et al 2009). These will be produced using an interpolation scheme based on the existing shoreline and buoy data stations, taking full account of the station location in processing the raw wind data. These can be supplemented by assimilated data fields used by numerical weather forecasts, which will be available at 2-4 km grid resolution. Wind records collected directly over the water surface away from shore (e.g., from a buoy) can be considered as representative of the conditions experienced by the lake. However, records collected at the land margin need to be corrected to account for differences in roughness between land and water (Hsu 1981) if the wind is blowing from land to the water. The influence of boundary roughness can exist for many kilometers offshore. The approach based on the theory of boundary layer flow across a sharp transition between two surfaces of different roughness lengths (Taylor and Lee 1984) will be used here for this local correction. The method is described in Appendix A of Rueda et al. (2009). 6 f. Relationship of the research to previous and current relevant research, monitoring, and/or environmental improvement efforts This project will take advantage of a variety of past and present regional projects and activities at WRCC and at UC Davis, and significant experience in providing climate information to users of all sorts. Indeed, it is the substantial leveraging thus obtained that makes this project possible and practical. Foremost among these are the web pages of WRCC itself (www.wrcc.dri.edu), and its many monitoring projects (www.wrcc.dri.edu/PROJECTS.html). The WRCC web pages are extremely popular and useful, and now receive 100,000 to 200,000 accesses per day. The California Energy Commission (CEC) has funded the California Climate Data Archive (“Calclim”, www.calclim.dri.edu) through its California Climate Change Center at Scripps. CEC, NOAA, NSF, CDWR, and many other agencies have provided funding for WRCC to install or maintain monitoring stations in the Sierra Nevada and in or near the Tahoe Basin (see www.wrcc.dri.edu/weather/index.html). WRCC acts as the official archive for the 2400 stations in the interagency RAWS program (www.raws.dri.edu) and has ready access to the NRCS Snotel data. WRCC is working with CDWR and CDEC to develop better access and display of California weather and climate station data. WRCC and UC Davis have just received an NSF grant to deploy climate stations in the University of California Natural Reserve System, including Chickering Reserve in the upper North Fork of the American River. WRCC has received funding from NSF and from NOAA for climate change monitoring and interpretation in California and Nevada. This project will link with the California Climate Tracker (www.wrcc.dri.edu/monitor/cal-mon/index.html), with the NOAA Westmap Project (www.cefa.dri.edu/Westmap), and with the NOAA-WRCC West-Wide Drought Tracker. The California-Nevada Smoke and Air Committee (CANSAC, www.cefa.dri.edu/COFF) is a 10party collaborative that runs numerical models for the two states 4 times a day, under the DRI Climate, Ecosystems and Fire Applications (CEFA) program, managed by Dr. Tim Brown. CEFA is closely allied with WRCC but funded quite differently. The project will also link to and ingest data from all available in-basin meteorological data sources. These have in the past been the basis of many important programs in the basin, including the TMDL. It would not be an overstatement to say that most projects performed under the EIP have used part of the available data. The fact that all of the data were not available in an easily usable form was a major shortfall, and one that this project seeks to overcome for future projects. g. Strategy for engaging with managers and obtaining permits The UC Davis Tahoe Environmental Research Center (TERC) is located within the Tahoe Basin and its scientists and research staff are engaged in a range of activities that span many disciplines and bring them into contact with managers from virtually all federal, state and bi-state management agencies. TERC will continue to engage with these managers to ensure that the products from this project are both suitable for agency needs, and that agency staff are fully aware of the availability of this new set of tools. Similarly, WRCC personnel spend considerable time in and near the basin and are in frequent contact with the research community and with basin managers. These interactions routinely lead to discussions of desirable data sets and ways to access and visualize them. To this end, at the outset of the project the PI and co-PI will organize a half-day workshop with agency representatives at the Tahoe Center for Environmental Sciences in Incline Village, to 7 inform them of the capabilities of TahoeCLIM and to seek their input to identify the highest value data products for the Tahoe Basin. The TERC education centers (at Incline Village and Tahoe City) are ideal venues to showcase the newly developed tools to the general public through there incorporation into interactive displays. The web site itself will provide mechanisms to provide feedback and suggestions to project personnel. These methods have previously been employed to guide the development of software applications and display methods used by the very popular WRCC main web pages. h. Description of deliverables/products and plan for how data and products will be reviewed and made available to end users This project will develop an accessible archive of historical and current meteorological and climatological data for the Tahoe Basin. It will include all past and present observations from the principal weather and climate networks operating in the basin and the data flow and management system will be established to allow the continued assimilation and archiving of real-time data in the future. The data sets will include direct measurements from in situ locations, interpolated and infilled data on fine grids, three-dimensional hourly fields of data from the last five years, and synthesized information in the form of products, many of which can be generated directly by the users and therefore be more responsive to their needs. A special web site -- the Tahoe Climate Information for Management System (TahoeClim) -will be created that provides access to data sets for a broad and varied audience, extending from the average public to the research community. Data sets of interest will be available as in situ station data and in gridded form. The web site will be equipped with tools that are both intuitive and simple for non-specialists to identify, select, visualize and download data they are interested in. A formalized review of the products will not be undertaken. However, the tools that are being utilized as part of this project are by and large existing web-based tools and the data products that are being developed are based on techniques that have been reviewed and are widely accepted. The web site itself will provide mechanisms for users to provide feedback and suggestions to project personnel. These methods have previously been employed to guide the development of software applications and display methods used by the WRCC. 8 Schedule of major milestones/deliverables in a table with estimated start and end dates Cumulative project months TASK 0-3 Researcher-Agency workshop x Develop TahoeClim web pages x Include major in situ historical data sets Links to major gridded data sets Develop on-line documentation of available data Develop Tahoe Basin aggregated climate monitoring indices. Add specialized data sets and stations and develop methods for routine and automated updates Add links to reanalysis-based gridded data sets 3-6 6-9 9-12 12-15 x x x x x x x x x Develop methods to link to assimilated data sets generated by numerical weather prediction models Calibration and refurbishment of existing lake met stations x x Installation of new north-east met. station x x Clean-up and validation of TERC and NASA databases Development, testing and implementation of boundary layer algorithms Quarterly reports x x x 15-18 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x Draft Final Report 21-24 x x x 18-21 x Final Report x 9 8. References Coats, R., Perez-Losada, J., Schladow, S. G., Richards, R.C. and Goldman, C. R. (2006). The Warming of Lake Tahoe. Climatic Change 76:121-148. CIRMOUNT, 2006. Mapping New Terrain: Climate change and America’s West. Report of the Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT), Misc. Pub., PSW-MISC-77, Albany, CA, Pacific Southwest Research Station, Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 29 pp. Daly, C., M. Halbleib, J.I. Smith, W.P. Gibson, M.K. Doggett, G.H. Taylor, J. Curtis, and P.A. Pasteris, 2008. Physiographically-sensitive mapping of temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States. International Journal of Climatology, 28: 2031-2064. Hsu, S. A. (1981) Models for estimating offshore winds from onshore meteorological measurements. Boundary-Layer Meteorology 20(3), 341-351. Long, J., 2009. Tahoe science update report. Pacific Southwest Research Station, US Forest Service, 43 pp. Rueda F., J. Vidal, G. Schladow (2009), Modeling the effect of size reduction on the stratification of a large wind-driven lake using an uncertainty-based approach, Water Resour. Res., 45, W03411, doi:10.1029/2008WR006988. Schneider P., S. J. Hook, R. Radocinski, G. K. Corlett, G. C. Hulley, G. Schladow, T. Steissberg 2009. Satellite observations indicate rapid warming trend for lakes in California and Nevada. Geophysical Research Letters, accepted for publication. Taylor, P. A., and Lee, R. J. (1984) Simple guidelines for estimating wind speed variations due to small-scale topographic features. Climatol. Bulletin 18(2), 3-32. TERC (Tahoe Environmental Research Center), 2009. Tahoe: State of the Lake Report, 2009. Available online at 169.237.166.248/stateofthelake/StateOfTheLake2009.pdf. 10 9. Figures Figure 1. Sites in northern central California available through CalClim (www.calclim.dri.edu). Colors represent stations in different networks. Data are available and electronically accessible from all sites shown. In Tahoe area, sites include California Snow Survey, NRCS SNOTEL, NWS Cooperative, Airports, and RAWS stations. Source: Western Regional Climate Center. Figure 2. Winter-centered (July through June) precipitation over El Dorado County CA. All PRISM pixels in county, 1895-1896 through 2008-2009. Source: Westmap climate visualization tool, Western Regional Climate Center. Data from PRISM. 11 Figure 3. Annual mean freezing level over Lake Tahoe from 1948 through 2008, meters above sea level. Dashed: plus/minus 1 standard deviation. Source: Western Regional Climate Center. Figure 4. Wind rose for summit of Slide Mountain, all hours of the day, 36-point compass, all 10-minute periods in July 2009, elevation 9650 feet (about 700 mb level). This graph shows the percentage of time that that wind is from each 10 degree compass direction and in different speed categories (every 5 mph). Strong and persistent southwest winds occur throughout most of the month. At 3 pm average speed is 18 mph from 257 degrees with a directional constancy of 0.94 (extremely high), based on 186 observations each hour of the month. 12 Figure 5. Lake Tahoe buoy and shore stations managed by the Tahoe Environmental Research Center. A large gap in the data coverage is evident on the northeast shore. Source: TERC 13 Figure 6. Interpolated windfield from Lake Tahoe. Colors indicate vorticity and arrows indicate windspeed and direction. Vorticity is positive in the north and negative in the south. This pattern evolves throughout the day and from day to day. Only 1 NASA buoy and 1 UC Davis raft were used in addition to the shore stations. The station indicated as “Incline” is not a meteorological station and was not used in the interpolation. As a result there is a large gap in the northeast of the lake, which results in a large degree of extrapolation. As part of this proposal all 4 NASA buoys, 2 UC Davis rafts, all 6 UC Davis shore stations and a new station in the northeast will be used to produce interpolated windfields every three hours. 14