Using biological data
to test climate change refugia
Using biological data
to test climate change refugia
Toni Lyn Morelli
with SP Maher, SR Beissinger, C Moritz,
K Nydick, J Ebersole, C Daly, S Dobrowski, D Dulen,
L Eastman, A Flint, L Flint, ST Jackson, C Kastely, M Lim,
JD Lundquist, CI Millar, WB Monahan, KT Redmond,
S Sawyer, & S Stock
Managing Climate Change Refugia
for Climate Adaptation
TL Morelli, SP Maher, K Nydick, J Ebersole,
WB Monahan, C Daly, S Dobrowski, D Dulen,
ST Jackson, JD Lundquist, CI Millar, KT
Redmond, S Sawyer, S Stock, & SR Beissinger
Areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change
that enable persistence of valued resources
Morelli et al. In Review
PLOS ONE
Climate change refugia
conservation cycle
Inspired by the CSCC, Stein et al. 2014
Morelli et al. In Review
PLOS ONE
Identify Climate Change Refugia
a) Target Refugial Processes
Examples of the physical basis for climate refugia
Identify Climate Change Refugia
a) Target Refugial Processes
b) Model Stability Based on Recent or Future Climate
c) Locate Areas of High Resource Persistence or Diversity
Montane Meadows
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Botanically diverse
Important to animal communities
Critical to hydrological function
Significant to recreation and economy
Observed U.S. Warming
1991-2012 vs. 1901-1960
U.S. Global Change Research Program
Record California Warming
California Climate Tracker
Record California Drought
California Climate Tracker
Mann & Gleick 2015 PNAS
Modeling Climate Stability
~17,000 meadows
Diff 1970-1999 & 1910-1939
PRISM ds to 270m
BCM (Flint et al. 2013)
climate.calcommons.org
Fryjoff-Hung & Viers, 2012. http://meadows.ucdavis.edu/
Maher, Morelli et al.
In Revision
Steps for Managing
Climate Change Refugia
Belding’s Ground Squirrel
(Urocitellus beldingi)
• Habitat specialist
• Highly detectable
• Group-living
Grinnell Surveys (1900-1939)
42% Rate of Site Extirpations Across CA
Persistent Sites = 43
Extirpated Sites = 31
Original Surveys: 1902-1966
Resurveys: 2003-2011
Detectability (p) > 0.995 for
2+ visits
Testing the Climate Refugia Map
~17,000 meadows
Proportion of Sites where U. beldingi Persisted
Climate Refugia Predict Persistence
Morelli et al. In Review
Global Change Biology
* All Sig at p <0.05 except SWE
**
in Annual Precip
2011
Δ in Minimum Temp
Climate Refugia
Predict Occupancy
Δ
**
2-Samp Wilcox.
Test
(N = 18)
(N = 20)
**p <0.001
***p <0.0001
Δ in April SWE
***
Temperature correlates
with Genetic Diversity
R2adj = 0.66
p = 0.002
n = 124
Modern Minimum Temperature (°C)
Morelli et al. In Review
Global Change Biology
Morelli et al. In Review
PLOS ONE
Modern Winter
Temperature
p = 0.007
Morelli et al. 2012 Proc B
Classification error rate (OOB estimate)
= 18.92%
>-4°C
Human
modification
p = 0.036
≤-4°C
Artificial
n = 18
n = 40
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1
- 0.8
- 0.6
- 0.4
- 0.2
Persistence = Blue
Extirpation = Red
- 0
Proportion of Sites
Where U. beldingi Persist
n = 16
Natural
Anthropogenic Refugia?
1970s
Thanks!
UC Davis
Information Center for the
Environment (ICE)
climate.calcommons.org
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Co-authors
Funders
NECSC colleagues
Moritz Lab
Beissinger Lab
Michelle Koo
Michelle Hershey
Christina Kastely, Ilaria
Mastroserio, Matt
Pfannenstiel, & other field
assistants
northeastclimate.org