Forest Stewardship Spatial Analysis Project New York Methodology Project Summary: The Forest Stewardship Spatial Analysis Project (SAP) is designed to determine stewardship potential on private land throughout New York State. Using a raster-based GIS analysis, 30-meter by 30-meter grid cells were assigned values based on 12 environmental parameters to determine their individual stewardship potentials. The 12 parameters used by New York State were divided into two sections: Resource Threat Factors and Resource Potential Factors. Resource Threat Factors: - Development Risk - Forest Health Resource Potential Factors: - Private Forest Land - Forest Patch Size - Riparian Corridors - Public Water Supply - Priority Watersheds - Threatened and Endangered Species - Wetlands - Proximity to Publicly Owned Lands - Conservation Easements - Slope This list differs from the list offered by the pilot states in that a Fire Risk assessment layer is not included. The reason for this is simply that the data necessary for the creation of this layer was not available at the time of production. During the weighting of the layers (described below) the Fire Risk layer was almost unanimously ranked as the least important and, as a result, its inclusion would not have had a significant effect on the raster cell values. If fire risk data becomes available, it will be factored into the SAP at some future time, based on its weight and rank recorded here. Due to the large amount of land involved, a layer defining Conservation Easement lands was included in the analysis. Conservation Easement presence was determined to be a Resource Potential Factor, and the layer given the same rank as the Proximity to Publicly Owned Lands layer. 1 Layer Creation: Raster layers created for the purpose of this analysis were 30-meter grid cells, defined by the extent of the Digital Elevation Model used to create the Slope layer. While the Slope layer was created first, layer descriptions here will be presented in order of decreasing importance as defined by the DEC Service Foresters of New York State. Private Forest Lands: The Private Forest Lands data layer was created using both the Forest Patch and Proximity to Publicly Owned Lands data layers. The Forest Patch layer was created using 30-meter resolution LANDSAT 5 imagery and included the Deciduous Forest, Coniferous Forest, Mixed Forest, Shrub-land and Woody Wetlands land cover classes. A buffered road layer was erased from the Forested Areas identified by the LAND-SAT imagery and, subsequently, all forest patches smaller than 5 acres in area were deleted. An unbuffered version of the Proximity to Publicly Owned Lands data layer, described below, was also erased from this Forest Patch layer, resulting in a layer composed of forested areas, greater than 5 acres in size, not occurring on publicly owned lands. Five acres was chosen as the threshold due to the fact that this is the minimum size for participation in the New York State Forest Stewardship Program. This layer was then rasterized to the same 30 m grid as the slope layer and assigned a value of 1429. This data layer is shown at right, with Private Forest areas shown in yellow. 2 Forest Patch Size: Forest cover used in this analysis was extracted from LANDSAT 5 imagery collected from the 1990 - 1993 period, with classification based upon a 30 meter pixel size. Five classifications were used to create a forest layer: Deciduous Forest, Coniferous Forest, Mixed Forest, Shrubland and Woody Wetlands. The road data used in this layer were from a 2005 roads dataset constructed from high resolution ortho-imagery. Roads were buffered based upon their intrusive significance to the landscape, with the buffer areas corresponding to the cleared rights-of-way. Interstate roads were buffered by a total of 300 feet, state and county roads by 66 feet. The buffered road layer was erased from the forest cover layer to yield a raster data set which approximated actual forested land cover in the State, and forested polygons which were less than 5 acres in area were deleted. This layer was then rasterized to the same 30-meter grid as the slope layer and assigned a value of 1169. The data layer is shown at right, with Forest Patches greater than 5 acres in area shown in green. 3 Forest Health: The Forest Health Dataset was created by the Bureau of Private Land Services, Forest Health and Protection Section, NYS DEC Division of Lands and Forests. Point classes were created to represent damage discovered during aerial analysis, later confirmed by ground-checks. The point classes from the 2004 and 2005 surveys were unioned and then buffered to a distance of 5 miles. These features were then rasterized to the same 30 meter grid as the slope layer. It was decided early in this project that priority would lie with the protection of healthy forests, in contrast to the rehabilitation of unhealthy or at-risk forests. As a result, this raster layer had to be reclassified to an inverse of itself. An analysis mask derived from the New York State boundary shapefile available from the Department of Environmental Conservation GIS data archive was used to prevent extraneous information, and the features showing forest damage were assigned a value of zero. All other features were assigned the determined ranking value of 1147. Areas which are considered not-at-risk are shown at right in purple. It should be noted that in Map 5: Resource Threats, the original forest health dataset, giving value to damaged forests, was used to show areas of potential health threats. 4 Developing Areas: Using a unioned dataset created from 1990 and 2000 census tract data, housing units per square kilometer by census tract were determined for both 1990 and 2000 census tract polygons. Due to inconsistencies in the boundaries of the tracts, tract polygons which showed a value of zero in either field were removed from the dataset. This enabled the elimination of most of the sliver polygons caused by boundary digitization irregularities. For the remaining tract polygons, a field was created in the attribute table showing the change in number of housing units per kilometer over the ten year period. Borrowing from the methodology of the state of Indiana, polygons with greater than 64 housing units per square mile (24.7 units/square kilometer) in either 1990 or 2000 were removed from the dataset. These areas are considered too urban to support stewardship. Areas which showed an increase of 8 or more housing units per square kilometer between 1990 and 2000 were also selected and removed from consideration. Finally, census tracts which had their center within the boundary of any polygon classified as a “City” boundary in the New York State Towns, Villages, and Cities dataset were also removed. The resulting shapefile, shown at right in blue, contained all of the areas which were considered to have a low risk of development and, therefore, an increased potential for stewardship. This dataset was rasterized to the same 30-meter grid as the slope layer and given a weight of 1017. It should be noted that for Map 5: Development Risks, the inverse of this raster was used to identify areas with an increased development risk. 5 Riparian Corridors: Riparian zones were identified by creating a 100 meter buffer around 1:24,000 hydrologic data developed jointly by the Department’s Division of Water and the U.S. Geological Survey. The buffered features included perennial streams, and surface (ponded) waters greater than 4047 square meters, or one acre, in size. Ponded waters less than 1 acre were not included due to the fact that they generally do not connect to a drainage network, and proximity disturbance close to a ponded shoreline would have minimal effects on downstream water quality. It should be noted that all cells from the EPA Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics data layer which were identified as water were later masked out of the final data set. As a result, many of the water features were removed from consideration, while the buffers remained. The Riparian Corridor data layer shown at right in dark blue represents the data before the application of the analysis mask. This layer has been rasterized to the same 30meter grid as the slope layer and given a value of 996. 6 Public Water Supply: The NYS Department of Health maintains a statewide database of Public Water Supply sources serving a population of 25 or more residents. Coordinate locations in the database yield point locations for sources which include springs, wells, intakes from rivers or reservoirs, and infiltration galleries. All wells and springs were assigned a protective disturbance buffer of 50 meters. Reservoirs and lakes which contain intakes were selected from 1:24K hydrology and buffered to 312 meters. This distance was selected as the statewide reservoir/surface water buffer, which corresponds to the 1000 foot reservoir disturbance protection zone recognized in the NYC Watershed. Intakes on rivers were buffered as points, also to the 312 meter distance. The final assembled drinking water layer, shown at right in red, consists of buffered wells, buffered springs, buffered river intakes, and buffered reservoirs/surface waters. This layer was rasterized to the same 30-meter grid as the slope layer and assigned a value of 974. 7 Priority Watersheds: The Priority Watershed data was obtained from The Nature Conservancy, in Albany, NY. The data layer was created by factoring in a number of influences, including population density, road density, protected lands, dam density, natural land cover, and interior forest cover. Watersheds were broken down into 11digit Hydrologic Unit Code areas, and ranked in increasing quality from 1 to 10. From this dataset, ranks 7, 8, 9, and 10 were kept as the Priority Watersheds for this project. This breakdown allowed for the inclusion of roughly 25% of the area of New York State. These areas were exported and rasterized to a 30-meter grid identical to that of the grid used in the slope layer. This grid was assigned a weight of 866. Areas considered to be priority watersheds are show at right in blue. 8 Threatened and Endangered Species: The New York State Natural Heritage Program element occurrences dataset was used from the Department’s GIS data archive. These data are contained in four themes: all points, all boundaries, filtered points, and filtered boundaries. Each theme contains features which represent element occurrences, as recorded in the New York Natural Heritage Program's Biodiversity Databases. Element occurrences are documented, including observed locations of rare plants, rare animals, rare or significant ecological communities, and multi-species animal concentration areas. The EO Rank field is coded for the status and relative quality or viability of the element occurrence. Values selected out for use were: A - excellent, B - good, C - fair and D - poor. EO Ranking values not included in the study were: E - extant with insufficient information to rank A-D, F failed to find during most recent survey, based on a limited search; possibly still present, H - historical with no recent information; unknown whether is still present. X - extirpated; determined to be no longer present, and ? - unknown. The polygons were not altered, but the points were buffered by 2640 feet. The layer was then clipped to the boundary of New York State found in the data archive, as many of the buffered features crossed over the state boundary. The Threatened and Endangered Species layer was rasterized to the same 30-meter grid as the slope layer, and is shown at right in brown. The value assigned to this layer was 844. 9 Wetlands: A combination of three wetlands datasets were used to create a comprehensive statewide dataset. The National Wetlands Inventory Dataset, updated most recently in December 2004, covers almost 75% of the area of New York State. The New York State Regulatory Wetlands Data are based on official New York State freshwater wetlands maps as described in Article 240301 of the Environmental Conservation Law. This layer was used to ensure that no parts of the state were overlooked, as it contains statewide wetland information. Finally, the New York State Adirondack Park Agency cover type wetlands were used to supplement these data. These data were unioned together, to ensure comprehensive inclusion of wetlands throughout New York State. The resulting layer, shown at right in bluegreen, was rasterized to the same 30 meter grid as the slope layer and assigned a value of 823. 10 Proximity to Publicly Owned Lands: The Public Lands data layer was assembled from a variety of datasets and includes: Lands managed by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation for forest, wildlife, preserve or unique purposes, State Parks managed by the Office of Parks Recreation and Historic Preservation, military lands including Fort Drum, West Point, and other lands managed by NYS Office of Military and Naval Affairs, Federal lands managed by the Department of Agriculture and the Department of the Interior, lands managed by local governments, including town and county parks, and areas included in New York City watershed protection. All of the lands included in these categories were merged together into a single layer and buffered to a distance of 2640 feet. This buffered layer, shown at right in lavender, was rasterized to the same 30meter grid as the slope layer and assigned a value of 368. It should be noted that the pre-buffered version of this dataset was also used to create the analysis mask used in this study. 11 Conservation Easements: When it was determined that New York State would be unable to include a Fire Risk layer into the Stewardship Potential Spatial Analysis Project, the decision was made to include an additional data layer unique to the state. New York State has a large number of Conservation Easements, currently including more than 360,000 acres of land. As this land is not publicly owned, it remains eligible for stewardship. It is expected that this will be an especially dynamic layer in the project, and regular updates will be required to maintain the accuracy of the information contained here. The Conservation Easement layer, shown at right in orange, was rasterized to the same 30-meter grid as the slope layer. As this data layer was not included in the original ranking structure sent to regional foresters, it was decided that this layer would be assigned a value identical to that of the Proximity to Publicly Owned Land data layer, 368. 12 Slope: The slope layer was created using the Surface Analysis – Slope function of the Spatial Analyst toolbar. Slope was determined in terms of percentage rather than degrees. Borrowing from the methodology of the state of Missouri, it was determined that areas with a topographic slope greater than 40% would be removed from the layer due to problems with accessibility for timber harvesting equipment. The slope layer was created using a 30meter statewide digital elevation model. The average slope percent was determined for each 30 meter cell, and those slopes classified as 0-40% were isolated. Cells displaying slopes in this range are shown at the right in green. At this scale, it is barely possible to see the cells in the Catskill and Adirondack Parks which have been removed from the analysis. The value assigned to the slope layer is 346. Wildfire Risk: The final layer intended for inclusion in the SAP was a layer showing risk of wildfire; however, at this time this data is unavailable. Fortunately, this layer was ranked almost unanimously last in importance and as a result would have been given a weight of 22. It is likely that when this data becomes available, the SAP will be updated to include it. 13 Statistical Ranking Methodology: In order to rank the 12 data layers used in this study, a list was sent to New York State Service Foresters. Foresters were instructed to assign numerical ranks to the parameters in order of decreasing importance. The results of this survey were as follows: Reg 3 Reg 4 Reg 5 Reg 6 Reg 7 Reg 8 Reg 9 7 11 10 8 9 10 12 9.5714 2.4286 0.0368 10 6 3 2 9 2 6 2 4.2857 7.7143 0.1169 2 9 9 7 3 10 1 5 6.2857 5.7143 0.0866 7 8 10 9 1 5 2 4 5.5714 6.4286 0.0974 6 11 8 6 11 11 11 10 9.7143 2.2857 0.346 11 5 4 5 5 4 8 7 5.4286 6.5714 0.0996 5 10 5 3 7 6 7 8 6.5714 5.4286 0.0823 9 Forest Health Private Forest Lands Developing Areas 2 7 8 4 3 4 3 4.4286 7.5714 0.1147 3 1 1 1 10 1 3 1 2.5714 9.4286 0.1429 1 3 2 11 2 8 5 6 5.2857 6.7143 0.1017 4 T & E Species 4 6 4 6 7 9 9 6.4286 5.5714 0.0844 8 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11.8571 0.1429 0.0022 12 Parameter Prox. To Pub. Land Forest Patch Size Priority Watershed Public Water Supply Slope Riparian Areas Wetlands Fire Risk Average Inverse Decimal Rank Ranking Following the example of the state of Missouri, the averages of the ranking values were subtracted from 12, in order to obtain inverse ranks. Each inverse rank was divided by the total of all inverse ranks, in order to obtain a decimal rank directly proportional to the value of the assigned numerical ranks. In order to conform to the ESRI convention of assigning integer values to reclassified raster data, each of the values in the “decimal rank” column were multiplied by 10^4. In addition, the Conservation Easement layer (assigned a rank of 10 and decimal rank of .0368) was not included in this original ranking. Due to this, and the removal of the Fire Risk data layer, highest attainable rank is 10,347, not 10,000 as originally intended. Only 28 total cells in the analysis exhibit the maximum value. The raster layers were all reclassified to exhibit either the value of their decimal ranking * 10^4, or zero in all cells. These binary layers were summed using the Raster Calculator to create the master SAP layer. 14 Analysis Mask: An analysis mask was created using the EPA Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics dataset, which breaks land cover down into 16 classes: Barren - Bare Rock and Sand; Barren - Quarries, Strip Mines, Gravel Pits; Barren – Transitional; Deciduous Forest; Emergent Wetlands; Evergreen Forest; High Intensity Commercial/Industrial; High Intensity Residential; Low Intensity Residential; Mixed Forest; Parks, Lawns, Golf Courses; Pasture/Hay; Row Crops; Uncoded; Water; and Woody Wetlands. The High Intensity Commercial/Industrial, High and Low Intensity Residential, and Water classes were recoded to a value of “NoData,” while other classes were recoded to a value of “1.” While the MRLC dataset was already based on a 30-meter grid cell system, during this reclassification the extent of the new Urban/Water raster was reset to that of the Slope layer to ensure exact cell overlay. The unbuffered Proximity to Publicly Owned Lands layer was also recoded to an inverse raster, with grid cells corresponding to publicly owned lands displaying a value of “No Data,” and all other cells falling within New York State coded to a value of “1.” Using the “Extract by Mask” tool in the Spatial Analyst Toolbar, the Urban/Water layer was masked out of the inverse Public Lands layer, and the result was a master Analysis Mask, with Urban areas, Water, Publicly Owned Lands, and out-of-state cells coded to “No Data,” and all other cells coded to a value of “1.” SAP Data Layer Classification: Areas determined to be part of the analysis mask were removed from the master SAP data layer using the same “Extract by Mask” tool. Once the areas being considered for stewardship were isolated, the master SAP layer was reclassified into 3 classes using the Jenks Natural Breaks method. The numerical breakdown of the classes is as follows: Low Stewardship Potential: 0-3549 (37,698,071 cells) Medium Stewardship Potential: 3550-5541 (41,004,913 cells) High Stewardship Potential: 5542-10347 (29,419,568 cells) Of the area being considered in the analysis, 34.87% is considered to have Low Stewardship Potential, 37.92% is considered to have Medium Stewardship Potential, and 27.21% is considered to have High Stewardship Potential. Forest/Non-forest Classification: The MRLC data layer was used to create two additional mask layers: Forested Areas and Non-forested Areas. Classes included in the Forest mask were: Deciduous Forest, Evergreen Forest, Mixed Forest, and Woody Wetlands. All other MRLC classes were included in the Non-Forest mask. The masks were applied to the final SAP layer in order to determine the area values and percentages of High, Medium, and Low Stewardship lands falling on each of these classes of land cover. 15 Map Products: 1. Potential for Forest Stewardship Program Benefits The Potential for Forest Stewardship Program Benefits map contains the master SAP layer, converted from a 30-meter raster to a non-generalized shapefile in order to ensure proper viewing at small scales. Shapefile format also facilitates the calculation of area values, shown below. The legend entry, “Analysis Mask,” has been changed to, “Areas without Stewardship Potential.” Stewardship Potential Low Medium High Total: Forest Acres 1,649,081 8,142,532 6,305,318 16,096,931 Stewardship Capable Lands Non-Forest Total % of total forest Acres % of total non-for Acres % of total 10.2% 50.6% 39.2% 6,731,200 972,860 234,652 7,938,712 84.8% 12.3% 2.9% 8,380,281 9,115,392 6,539,970 24,035,643 34.9% 37.9% 27.2% 16 Map 2: Potential for Forest Stewardship Program Benefits and Existing Stewardship Plans Currently, this map is identical to Map 1: Potential for Stewardship Program Benefits, aside from the inclusion of an additional table and legend entry. This is due to the fact that at the time of writing, the existing forest stewardship plans have yet to be collected. Once this data becomes available, it will be shown as a layer of polygon features, symbolized in black. 17 Map 3: Forest Stewardship Potential on Private Forest Lands* and Existing Stewardship Potential In Map 3: Forest Stewardship Potential on Private Forest Lands* and Existing Stewardship Potential, all New York State lands determined to be non-forested have been masked out of the master SAP layer. Areas which were part of the original Analysis Mask are shown in white, while areas masked out due to land cover are shown in grey. The table, shown below, takes into consideration only those lands determined to be forested. At the time of writing, existing forest stewardship data had not been compiled. When this data layer is completed, it will be symbolized using black polygon features, as shown in the legend. Private Forest Lands Stewardship Potential Low Medium High Total: Acres Capable of 1,649,081 8,142,532 6,305,318 16,096,931 Stewardship: Stewardship #,###,### #,###,### #,###,### Plan (acres): Stew. Plan vs. Acres Capable of ##% ##% ##% Stewardship (%): #,###,### ##% 18 Map 4: Resource Richness Map 4: Resource Richness displays a separate analysis performed using only those data layers which were defined as resource potential factors at the beginning of the analysis. These layers include Private Forest Lands, Forest Patches, Proximity to Publicly Owned Lands, Wetlands, Riparian Areas, Public Water Supply, Threatened and Endangered Species, Slope, Priority Watersheds, and Conservation Easements. The same weight values for each layer were used in this analysis, creating a maximum possible value of 8,183. Using Jenks Natural Breaks classification method, the breakdown of classes in this analysis was: Low Resource Richness 1-1970, Medium Resource Richness 19714026, and High Resource Richness 4027-8183. Cells with a value of zero in this layer were removed and are symbolized in grey; however, they were few enough that they are not visible at the scale of this map. 19 Map 5: Resource Threats Map 5: Resource Threats contains information from the Forest Health and Development Risk data layers. When the information becomes available, this analysis may be updated to include information from the Fire Risk layer. In order to stay within the parameters of this map, the areas displayed as Low are areas which were classified as a development risk, areas displayed as Medium are areas which were classified as a forest health risk, and areas displayed as high were identified as risk areas in both layers. Quantitatively, Low threat areas had a cell value of 1017, Medium threat areas had a cell value of 1147, and High threat areas had a cell value of 2164. 20 Map 6: Forest Stewardship Potential on Non-forested – Non-developed* Lands and Existing Stewardship Plans To create the data layer shown in Map 6: Forest Stewardship Potential on Nonforested – Non-developed* Lands and Existing Stewardship Plans, the following classes were extracted from the 30-meter EPA Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics: Barren; Bare Rock and Sand, Barren; Quarries, Strip Mines, Gravel Pits, Barren; Transitional, Emergent Wetlands, Parks, Lawns, and Golf Courses, Pasture/Hay, and Row Crops. During this process, the cells were formatted to the same output extent as the rest of the data layers. This new raster was applied to the master SAP layer as an analysis mask, and the result is shown above. When the existing stewardship plans are collected, they will be symbolized on this map in black. Non-Forest – Non-Developed Lands Stewardship Potential Low Medium High Areas Capable of Stewardship: Stewardship Plan (acres): Stew. Plan vs. Acres Capable of Stewardship(%): Total: 6,731,200 972,860 234,652 7,938,712 #,###,### #,###,### #,###,### #,###,### ##% ##% ##% ##% 21 Map 7: Potential for Forest Stewardship Program Benefits - New York City Watershed Region This map offers a closer view of the stewardship potential within the area defined as the New York City Watershed. Due to the high percentage of New York State owned lands within the Catskill Park area; these have been broken down by type and symbolized separately. New York City Watershed – Stewardship Capable Lands Stewardship Potential Forest Acres Low Medium High Total: 46,621 348,630 349,345 744, 596 % of Total For. 6.3% 46.8% 46.9% Non-Forest % of Total Acres Non-For. 73,027 61.7% 33,462 28.3% 11,794 10.0% 118,283 Total Acres % of Total 119,648 382,092 361,139 862,879 13.9% 44.3% 41.8% 22