Forest Stewardship Spatial Analysis Project Indiana Methodology March, 2006 Project Summary One purpose of the Spatial Analysis Project (SAP) is to create a data layer for a state that represents levels of potential benefit from—or suitability for inclusion in—the Forest Stewardship Program as delivered by state forestry agencies and the U.S. Forest Service. Private land program and GIS staff from the four states involved in the pilot SAP effort (Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts and Missouri), along with Forest Service program and GIS staff identified 12 factors which help identify the “Stewardship potential” of a given piece of land. The factors were differentiated into two groups: resource potential and resource threats. The resource potential factors include: Riparian Zones Priority Watersheds Forest Patch Size Natural Heritage Data Public Drinking Water Supply Sources Private Forest Lands Proximity to Public Lands Wetlands Topographic Slope The resource threat factors include: Forest Health Development Level Wildfire Assessment Certain lands within any state are not eligible for inclusion in the Forest Stewardship program. Land use / land cover factors which identify these areas are open water, urban areas and publicly owned lands. Additionally, lands already enrolled in the stewardship program were removed since they cannot be enrolled twice. A mask was created to exclude these areas from the analysis. Once the 12 factors were identified, each state determined the relative importance of each of the criteria based on their state-specific conditions. The Indiana Forest Stewardship Committee and employees of the Indiana Division of Forestry Cooperative Forest Management Section voted (in two separate voting sessions) on the relative importance of the above 12 layers. The percentages for each layer were then averaged between the two sets of results to yield our final weighting scheme. The 12 layers were then combined in a GIS overlay analysis which took into account the weight for each factor. The final product was a single data layer which represents the suitability of the land for inclusion in the Forest Stewardship Program. Values from this analysis range from 0 to 1, with a value of 1 representing the highest level of suitability. A natural breaks classification algorithm was used to break the values into low, medium and high classes. The result is shown below. Summary statistics were calculated and a series of maps was then created to display the data. While the process outlined above was taking place a parallel effort was occurring. In order to understand where the Forest Stewardship Program has been previously implemented, the property boundaries for ownerships with a Stewardship plan were digitized. Stewardship plan polygons were then overlaid on the Stewardship potential layer to assess Stewardship efforts to date. Indiana Composite Forest Stewardship Potential Stewardship Potential Low Medium High Masked out areas The 12 Data Layers Riparian Corridors: Riparian corridors were created by buffering perennial streams and lakes in Indiana from the USGS 1:24,000 DLG files. The buffers were 100 meters on each side and are shown in blue in the map on the right. Priority Watersheds: These watersheds were designated as non-EPA compliant (categories 5A5B). The Indiana Department of Environment Management tested water bodies across the state in 2004. The resultant non-compliant bodies were then linked to their respective 14 digits watersheds (digitized at 1:24,000 scale), which are shown at the right in blue. Wetlands: Wetlands were derived from the 1:24,000 National Wetlands Inventory conducted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. We then extracted all forested and scrub/shrub wetlands so that we were only left with wetlands suitable for tree cover. Public Water Supply Areas: This layer is derived from USGS and IDEM layers showing public and community wells as well as surface water supply watersheds. All three data layers are originally 1:24,000. The two well layers were each buffered by one mile, then the three layers were combined. Public water supply areas are shown at the right in light blue. Private Forest: Private forest lands were derived from the 1992 NLCD dataset by combining classes 41,42,43,51 and 91, which are deciduous forest, coniferous forest, mixed forest and woodland, and woody wetlands. The NLCD data was derived from Landsat TM data, with a resolution of 30 meters. Since public lands were removed from the composite map as part of the Analysis Mask, we did not remove public lands from this layer. Thus, this map actually shows all forests in Indiana. However, this proved useful when it came time to make the Forest Patches layer, as will be discussed below. Forestland in Indiana is shown at the right in light green. Forest Patches: Forest patches were derived from Private Forest. A professor of Forestry at Purdue University determined that forest patches greater than 50 acres would be large enough to function as wildlife habitat for most species. All forest patches 50 acres or larger were selected. Then all state and U.S. roads were selected and buffered by 15 meters on a side. It was felt that U.S. and State highways would serve as a barrier between forests on either side of the road, while county and local roads would be less of a barrier. Additionally, trying to run an erase function with all the roads in Indiana would have been nearly impossible on a normal desktop computer. These roads were then erased from the initial selection of forest patches. We then reselected forest patches 50 acres or larger. As mentioned above, this layer also includes public forests. However, we find this to be beneficial, because we would like to enroll private forest land that adjoins public forest, particularly if it will ensure a large, contiguous patch of forestland. Thus, even when we remove public lands as part of the analysis mask, private forests that are less than 50 acres will still get the additional weighting associated with this layer if they combine with public forest to form a patch larger than 50 acres. All forest patches ≥50 acres are shown above in dark green. Proximity to Public Land: This layer was created by selecting all public lands in Indiana from our Managed Lands dataset. We then buffered these lands by ¼ mile. There are many different sources for the Managed Lands dataset, but the worst resolution is 1:24,000. All private lands within ¼ mile of public lands are shown at right in purple. Natural Heritage Sites (T&E species): This layer was created from Indiana’s Natural Heritage Database. This database contains data on Indiana’s rare and otherwise significant natural features, including plant and animal species, natural communities, and animal aggregations. This includes state and federal endangered species. Then, using the expertise of several IDNR employees, we removed all habitats and species that would be negatively impacted if an area was converted to forest. The remaining points were then buffered by ½ mile, and are shown at right in red. Slope: Slope was derived from the USGS National Elevation Dataset 30 meter statewide raster. We then selected all areas of the state with slopes >6-30%. Areas with slope 6% or lower are prime agricultural areas, and therefore considered ill-suited for conversion to forest. Slopes >30% are considered too steep for any landuse other than forest, and very unlikely to be converted to a non-forest landuse. Slopes >6-30% are shown at right in brown. Forest Health: This layer is a combination of four insect pests in Indiana; gypsy moth, forest tent caterpillar, looper, and Emerald Ash Borer. The gypsy moth data comes from trap data which is then fed into an algorithm showing moth lines and kriged surfaces. For the northeast part of the state, the 2004 1 moth line (traps which had 1 or more moths present) was buffered by 35 miles to show risk of spread in the next five years. In the southeast part of Indiana, the 2005 kriged surface was used and buffered by 20 miles around the isolated find in Scott County. Looper and FTC ranges were based on aerial surveys conducted in 2003 and 2004. Emerald Ash borer data was based on trees with confirmed cases of Emerald Ash Borer which were then buffered by ½ mile. All of the layers were produced under the supervision of Phil Marshall, the IDNR Forest Entomologist. The layers were then combined into one layer. Areas at risk from these insects are shown above in brown. Wildfire Assessment: Wildfire risk areas were derived from Wildland-Urban interface data as developed by the University of Wisconsin. They developed layers showing fuel hazard, population density, and volunteer fire department locations. The University of Indiana then combined those layers into a fire risk layer with the categories low, moderate, moderately high, high, and water. We selected all areas that fell into moderately high and high. The pixels were originally 90 meters and were resampled to 30 meters to align with our other raster datasets. The areas at risk for wildfires are shown at right in red. Risk of Development: Risk of Development was derived from data developed by the USFS. Two data sets were used; the first showed population density in 2000, the second showed expected population density in 2030. We combined the two layers to find areas that were going to go from 0-16 housing units per square mile to 16-64 housing units per square mile. Densities of housing above 64/mile² were considered urban and unsuitable for forests larger than 10 acres (the cutoff to enroll in our stewardship program). Areas at risk of development are shown at right in orange. Analysis Mask: This layer shows all areas ineligible for enrollment into the forest stewardship program. It consists of Urban and Open Water areas as specified in the 1992 NLCD layer, public lands as shown in our Managed Lands dataset, and existing stewardship plans. Areas ineligible to be enrolled are shown at right in grey. Existing Stewardship Plans: Existing stewardship plans were digitized in from legal descriptions which were usually based on aerial photography. 8406 tracts, enrolled between 1921 and 2002 are shown at right in green. Weighting Once we had our 12 layers, we needed to determine their relative importance to establishing an overall state map showing stewardship potential. We had two groups vote on the importance of the 12 layers, the Forest Stewardship Committee, which had 27 people vote, and the Cooperative Forest Management section of the Division of Forestry, which had 18 people vote. Each person was given 24 points to allocate among the 12 layers, with each person allowed to put a maximum of 5 points towards any one layer. We then combined the point totals for each layer from the two voting sessions, and divided by the total number of points possible. The results are shown below. Layer Private Forest Weight (%) 16.32 Riparian Corridors 12.79 Forest Patches 12.53 Risk of Development 9.01 Forest Health (pests) 8.75 Proximity to Public Lands 7.31 Public Water Supply 7.18 Wetlands 6.79 TES 6.53 Slope 6.27 Impaired Watersheds/ Priority Watersheds 5.74 Fire Risk .78 GIS Analysis Each of the 12 layers used in the analysis had a grid cell size of 30 meters, and they were all aligned to the slope layer, since it was the only layer to start as a 30 meter raster in UTM 16N NAD 83. The 12 layers were all coded to a 0,1 format, where cells not representing the layer in question were 0, and all cells that did represent the layer were 1. For example, in the slope layer, all pixels with a slope >6-30% were recoded to 1, all other pixels were recoded to 0. Once this was done, each raster layer was multiplied by its weight so that each pixel took the value of its weighting. To reduce computation time, actual weights were multiplied by 10,000 so that all weights were integers. The 12 layers were then added together, and the resultant raster was multiplied by .0001 so that we ended up with a raster ranging from 0 to 1. A value of 1 was the highest possible stewardship potential score. The next step was to remove lands ineligible for stewardship, as represented by the Analysis Mask shown above. To do this, the analysis mask was recoded to values of NoData and 0, with NoData areas ineligible for stewardship. This raster was then added to the stewardship potential raster, with the result being that NoData areas in the Analysis Mask became NoData pixels in the stewardship potential raster. Once we had a stewardship potential mask for areas eligible for stewardship, we used the Natural Breaks classifier in ArcMap to break Indiana into Low, Medium, and High stewardship potential classes. The ranges are shown below. We then recoded the raster so that 1=low potential, 2=medium potential, and 3=high potential. The resultant image is the first map in this write-up. Low: Medium: High: 0 - .0979 .0979 - .3082 .3082 – 1 Digitizing Existing Stewardship Plans The second part of the SAP was the creation of a shapefile showing existing stewardship plans in each state. For Indiana, this was a particularly daunting task since we have the oldest stewardship plan in the country, and over 9000 pieces of forestland enrolled. For the purposes of the SAP project, we digitized plans through the end of 2002, which included 8406 tracts of land. These tracts were digitized by entering legal descriptions through the ArcMap add-on program IcoMap. Using bearing and distance, property boundaries were drawn. It should be noted that the quality of surveys varied widely, and that some surveys were based on unrectified aerial photography which led to errors when the tract was digitized. Over 99% of all tracts through 2002 were digitized, with the remaining tracts having some insurmountable problem. These included files that had been lost due to courthouse fires (or two, in the case of one county), conflicting deeds with neighboring property, and other problems that invariably arise in record keeping.