Forest Stewardship Spatial Analysis Project Iowa Methodology December, 2005 Project Summary One purpose of the Spatial Analysis Project (SAP) is to create a data layer for a state that represents levels of potential benefit from, or suitability for inclusion in, the Forest Stewardship Program as delivered by state forestry agencies and the U.S. Forest Service. Private land program and GIS staff from the four states involved in the pilot SAP effort (Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts and Missouri), along with Forest Service program and GIS staff identified 12 factors which help identify the “Stewardship potential” of a given piece of land. The factors were differentiated into two groups: resource potential and resource threats. The resource potential factors include: Riparian Zones Priority Watersheds Forest Patch Size Natural Heritage Data (Forest Wildlife) Public Drinking Water Supply Sources (Priority Watersheds) Private Forest Lands Proximity to Public Lands Wetlands Topographic Slope The resource threat factors include: Forest Health (Pest/Disease Risk) Development Level Wildfire Assessment Iowa Identified and included three additional factors: Forest Soils Forested Landscapes Historic Forest Certain lands within any state are not eligible for inclusion in the Forest Stewardship program. Land use / land cover factors which identify these areas are open water, urban areas and publicly owned lands. A mask was created to exclude these areas from the analysis. Once the 15 factors were identified, the Iowa Forest Stewardship Committee determined the relative importance of each of the criteria and an average weight was calculated for each. The 15 layers were then combined in a GIS overlay analysis which took into account the weight for each factor. The final product was a single data layer which represents the suitability of the land for inclusion in the Forest Stewardship Program. Possible values from this analysis range from 0 to 1, with a value of 1 representing the highest level of suitability. A natural breaks classification algorithm was used to break the values into low, medium and high classes. The result is shown below. Summary statistics were calculated and a series of maps was then created to display the data. In order to understand where the Forest Stewardship Program has been previously implemented, the forest stands and property boundaries for ownerships with a Stewardship plan were digitized. Stewardship plan polygons were then overlaid on the Stewardship potential layer to assess Stewardship efforts to date. Data Development Forest Soils: This coverage is a 30 meter raster representation (in ESRI GRID format) of soil mapping units from the published soil survey reports of Iowa. This GRID is a compilation of the individual township-wide vector soil coverages. The original vector versions of the soil surveys were digitized by the Iowa Cooperative Soil Survey (ICSS), with township edge-matching, final editing and finishing assembled by the Iowa Geological Survey, of the Department of Natural Resources. Minimum size delineation of soils are 2 acres. The soil mapping values can be linked to the Iowa Soil Properties and Interpretations Database (ISPAID) on the conoseq field. For the purposes of the SAP project, a value of 1 was assigned to soils that developed under forest as the native vegetation (NATIVEVEG = F). A value of 0.5 was assigned to soils that developed under a transition from prairie to forest and often supported savanna communities (NATIVEVEG = T). Online_Linkage: ftp://ftp.igsb.uiowa.edu/gis_library/IA_State/Geologic/Soils/soils.zip Online_Linkage: http://www.igsb.uiowa.edu/nrgislibx/ Forest Wildlife: Following almost two years of work by more than 100 people, including experts, agency and organization representatives and other interested individuals, a new plan for Iowa’s wildlife is nearing completion, and a draft is now available for public review and comment. Copies of the plan will be available as noted below. This is the first attempt ever to enumerate most of the state’s wildlife and evaluate the status of each species. It also examines stresses on wild creatures or their habitats and lays out visions and strategies to conserve wildlife over the next 25 years. Also known as the Iowa Comprehensive Wildlife Conservation Plan, the document identifies 999 species of birds, mammals, fish, reptiles, amphibians, mussels (freshwater clams), land snails, butterflies, dragonflies and damselflies. These groups were selected for inclusion because there is sufficient data to identify all of the known species, or because DNR has statutory authority for conservation and management of the listed groups. Fully one-third of all species found in Iowa are of concern due to their decline across Iowa. Plants are not listed because it is intended as a wildlife plan. However, plant communities are an important part of the habitats for most of Iowa’s wildlife and are addressed in terms of habitat throughout the plan. The draft plan is available on-line at the following link: http://www.iowadnr.com/wildlife/files/IAcomprehensive_plan.html The Iowa GAP Analysis project, part of the National GAP Analysis Program, developed both habitat and species range maps for Iowa wildlife. Each of the grids represents a species' predicted distribution based on habitat models derived from the IAGAP land cover data and hexagon range maps derived from survey data and expert review. This coverage was created to facilitate the vertebrate species habitat mapping portion of the Iowa Gap Analysis Program. The naming convention for each of the predicted distributions is based on a 4-letter code. A file called species_code.txt should accompany the directory in which the predicted distribution files are found. The collection of grids for individual species can be found at: Citation_Information: Originator: Iowa Gap Analysis Program Publication_Date: 2002 Title: Iowa GAP Predicted Species Distributions Online_Linkage: http://www.ag.iastate.edu/centers/cfwru/iowagap/ Online_Linkage: ftp://ftp.igsb.uiowa.edu/gis_library/IA_State/Biologic_Ecologic/ Online_Linkage: http://www.igsb.uiowa.edu/nrgislibx/ Existing Forest: The 2002 land Cover map was derived from 15 meter Landsat Satellite imagery captured primarily in 2002. For the purposes of this project, land cover codes for wet forest, coniferous forest, and deciduous forest were used to represent existing Iowa forest. Details on individual scenes, processing steps, and individual land cover categories can be obtained from the metadata available from the following links: Online Linkage: http://www.igsb.uiowa.edu/nrgislibx/ OnlineLinkage: ftp://ftp.igsb.uiowa.edu/gis_library/IA_State/Land_Description/Land_Cover/Land _Cover_2002/lc_2002.zip Forest Patch Size: This grid representing forest patch size was derived from existing forest in the 2002 land cover map as described above. There is not a published, online version of this map, but it can be recreated using tools available in ERDAS Imagine. Iowa’s forest is highly fragmented, but larger areas of contiguous forest do provide greater opportunities for forest stewardship activities. There is not a single threshold value that adequately defines this relationship. Instead, a bottom limit of 20 acres was established, and four size ranges were included. A value of 1 was assigned to forest patch sizes of 640 acres or more; a value of 0.75 was assigned to patch sizes from 160 to 639 acres; a value of 0.50 was assigned to patch sizes from 80 to 159 acres; and a value of 0.25 was assigned to patch sizes from 20 to 79 acres. Online Linkage: http://www.igsb.uiowa.edu/nrgislibx/ OnlineLinkage: ftp://ftp.igsb.uiowa.edu/gis_library/IA_State/Land_Description/Land_Cover/Land _Cover_2002/lc_2002.zip Proximity to Public Land: This map was derived from a sub-set of Iowa’s public lands. Much of Iowa was historically tall-grass prairie, and only approximately 1% of this habitat remains today. Many public lands are managed for tall-grass prairie, and habitat goals are aimed at increasing the percentage of grassland habitats in the landscape, especially to support many of the grassland bird species that are experiencing long-term population declines. For the purposes of this project, we have identified public lands where forest habitat is one of the habitat and wildlife management goals using the following criteria: More than 40 acres of forest and forest makes up at least 20% of the public area. Public lands information is periodically updated by the various groups who manage public lands in Iowa. We used the most complete versions available at the time of this analysis. The most complete compilations that are publicly available can be found at the locations listed below. Online_Linkage for Iowa GAP Stewardship Lands: http://www.iowagap.iastate.edu Online_Linkage for Iowa DNR Lands: ftp://ftp.igsb.uiowa.edu/gis_library/IA_State/Admin_Political_Boundary/Public_Lands/D NR_lands.zip Priority Watersheds: Iowa has completed versions of 8-digit, 10-digit, and 12-digit Hydrologic Unit Codes. In many cases, priorities are assigned to these watershed boundaries. In certain cases, such as individual lake watersheds, the watersheds contributing to these water bodies are considerably smaller, and specific watersheds have been delineated for these features. For the purposes of this project, a value of 1 was assigned to watersheds that meet 2 or more of the priority criteria, and a value of 0.5 was assigned to watersheds meeting any one of the four listed criteria. Online_Linkage for 12 Digit Hydrologic Units for Iowa: <http://www.ftw.nrcs.usda.gov/HUC/huc_download.html> Online_Linkage for Public Lakes Watersheds: ftp://ftp.igsb.uiowa.edu/GIS_Library/IA_State/Hydrologic/Surface_Waters/public_lakes_ watersheds.zip Topography: This map depicts slopes estimated from the National Elevation Dataset; a statewide 30 meter Digital Elevation Model created from U.S. Geological Survey 1:24,000 topography maps. In Iowa, slope is a major determinant of land use and susceptibility to erosion. Soils and general terrain relief of a region largely determine land uses, and the negative environmental impacts of various land uses. For the purposes of this project, steep slopes were identified using different minimum values in three different sub-ecoregions of Iowa. The minimum slope threshold for each sub-ecoregion was selected because land on more gentle slopes in Iowa is much more likely to be in high value agricultural production and not likely for inclusion in the Stewardship Program. Online_Linkage for the National Elevation Dataset: ftp://ftp.igsb.uiowa.edu/GIS_Library/IA_State/Elevation/NED/ned_ft.zip Online_Linkage for Eco-regions of Iowa: <ftp://ftp.igsb.uiowa.edu/gis_library/IA_State/Biologic_Ecologic/ecoregions.zip> Development Risk: This map was derived from U.S. Census Bureau data summarized to the block group level for the 1990 and 2000 national census. The specific shapefile used for this analysis was provided by the U.S. Forest Service, SAP program staff. Online_Linkage for the 1990 U.S. Census block groups: ftp://ftp.igsb.uiowa.edu/GIS_Library/IA_State/Cultural_Demographic/Census_19 90/census_1990_block_group.zip Online_Linkage for the 1990 U.S. Census block groups: ftp://ftp.igsb.uiowa.edu/GIS_Library/IA_State/Cultural_Demographic/Census_20 00/census_2000_block_group.zip Riparian Corridors: This map was derived from the Iowa Stream Order coverage. This coverage contains selected arcs from the National Hydrogrophy Dataset which was developed by the USGS and EPA. The selected arcs represent the centerlines of wide streams, impoundments, reservoirs, and wetlands as well as the segments of single line streams. An Arc/Info macro was run on the arc segments to calculate the Stralhler stream order for each arc. Since floodplain information for most Iowa counties is not available in digital format, stream order is the best indicator of potential for riparian habitat. First order streams include grass waterways and other ephemeral drains that do not exhibit a defined channel. Floodplain width tends to increase with stream order. Fifth order and higher streams have broad floodplains capable of supporting larger stands of bottomland forest. First order streams were not included and second order and higher streams were buffered by 25 meters x the stream order. This results in a total riparian width of 50 meters for second order streams and 250 meters for fifth order streams. Online_Linkage: <ftp://ftp.igsb.uiowa.edu/gis_library/IA_State/Hydrologic/Surface_Waters/stream _order.zip> Pest/Disease Risk: Gypsy Moth and White Oak Decline demonstrated increased presences in 2003. White Oak Decline: Rating reports from field foresters, field visits by entomologists and pathologists, reports from forest industry personnel, and aerial monitoring all concurred that white oak decline is increasing, especially in the 20 northeast Iowa counties depicted on this map. Gypsy Moth is not yet widespread as viable breeding populations in Iowa. For over a decade, pheromone trapping to identify early moth arrivals followed with treatments to eradicate early moth arrivals has kept Gypsy Moths out of the area. Wisconsin entomologists report a quickening of movement of gypsy moth westward, and this combined with the increase of 159 moth catches in Iowa in 2003 pointed to the need to prepare for eventual infestation in Iowa. The 20 counties shaded on this map represent the area at highest risk to Gypsy Moth infestation from Wisconsis populations. This information was published in the 2003 Iowa Forest Health Highlights. Online_Linkage: http://www.fhm.fs.fed.us/fhh/fhh-03/ia/ia_03.htm Forested Wetlands: This map depicts forested wetland habitats as defined by the National Wetland Inventory (NWI) conducted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, circa 1984. Areas on this map represent both forested wetlands as well as a 50 meter buffer area. NWI data is stored in county-wide files so 99 files are needed to assemble statewide information. Below is a link to the NWI data for Cerro Gordo County. Other counties are available from different county directories at the same site. Online_Linkage: ftp://ftp.igsb.uiowa.edu/gis_library/Counties/Cerro_Gordo/NWI_17_poly.zip Online_Linkage: http://www.igsb.uiowa.edu/nrgislibx Oak regeneration: Loss of oak forest has been an increasing concern across Iowa. Since 1954, Iowa has lost more than 7,000 acres of oak forest annually. Managing native vegetation communities in Iowa is a challenge because of the small and highly fragmented acreages and near complete absence of historic disturbance regimes. Active forest management is needed in many areas in order to favor regeneration of oaks in aging forest stands. The above map showing high and moderate priority areas for oak regeneration was produced by Paul Tauke, IDNR Forestry Services Supervisor. High priority areas were assigned a value of 1 and moderate priority areas were assigned a value of 0.5. Forested Landscapes: Iowa’s landscape historically was dominated by grassland habitats and is estimated to have been composed of 18% forest. Today, Iowa forests compose about 8% of Iowa, and the remaining forest habitats exist in small, highly-fragmented, stands. It is possible to quantify the density, or amount, of forest on a landscape scale in order to differentiate areas that have more forest than others. More potential to benefit from Forest Stewardship exists on both forested and non-forested areas in forested landscapes than in areas where forest is only a minor component of the landscape. This map assigns a value of 1 to landscapes containing the highest forest densities, comprising 13.5% of the state, and a value of 0.5 to landscapes with moderate amounts of forest, which comprise an additional 21% of the state. Online Linkage: http://www.igsb.uiowa.edu/nrgislibx/ OnlineLinkage: ftp://ftp.igsb.uiowa.edu/gis_library/IA_State/Land_Description/Land_Cover/Land _Cover_2002/lc_2002.zip Historic Forest: This map depicts historic forest areas identified from the Government Land Office Survey conducted in the 1860’s. A majority of the significant forested areas today exist as fragments of the larger forests of the 1860’s. The historic forests provide a footprint for focusing forest stewardship practices in order to improve the quality, quantity, and connectivity of existing forest lands. Online_Linkage: ftp://ftp.igsb.uiowa.edu/gis_library/IA_state/biologic_ecologic/GLO_vegetation.z ip Online_Linkage: http://www.igsb.uiowa.edu/nrgislibx Wildfire Risk: Areas of wildfire risk depicted on this map were taken from the “Wildland Fire Assessment” report for the state of Iowa. The assessment was based on historical data from the State Fire Marshall’s Office on wildfires occurring from 1994 to 1999. Natural vegetation and land use data was used to help predict future risks. This report was produced y the Iowa DNR Forestry Bureau to be incorporated in the National Fire Plan. Hardcopy reports can be ordered from: Gail Kantak Fire Supervisor 2404 South Duff Ave. Ames, Iowa 50010 Phone: 515-233-1161 Gail.Kantak@dnr.state.ia.us Weighting Of the fifteen criteria identified as contributing to the potential Stewardship Program benefit of a given piece of ground, some will likely be more important than others. To account for differing levels of importance, the Iowa forest Stewardship Committee (19 people total) ranked the fifteen criteria. Committee members were asked to rank each factor from 1 to 15, with 1 being the most important. A mean response value was then calculated for each of the 15 factors. In order to give the most important factor the largest numerical value, the mean response for each factor was subtracted from the highest possible rank (15). These inverse response values were then converted to relative weights by dividing each by the sum of the inverse response values. The relative weights were the values used in the analysis. The following shows the final weights for each factor. Criterion Forest Soils Forest Wildlife Existing Forest Forest Patch Size Proximity to Public Land Priority Watersheds Topography (Slope) Development Risk Riparian Corridors Pest/Disease Risk Forested Wetlands Oak Regeneration Forested Landscapes Historic Forest Wildfire Risk Weight 0.18 0.18 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.07 0.04 0.0315 0.03 0.021 0.02 0.014 0.01 0.01 0.0035 Grid Values 0.5, 1.0 0.5, 1.0 1.0 0.25, 0.5, 0.75, 1.0 1.0 0.5, 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.5, 1.0 0.5, 1.0 1.0 1.0 GIS Analysis The GIS data representing each of the twelve factors was converted to the ESRI Grid format with a cell size of 15 meters. The Grid of each factor was converted to up to 5 values from 0 to 1 (i.e., 0, 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 1.0). For example, all the 15m grid cells that fell within the riparian buffers were coded as a “1”, while all the cells that were outside the areas of the riparian buffers were give the value “0” in that layer. In the case of the forest patch size grid, five grid values were assigned based on forest patch size (acres) as follows: < 20 = 0; 20 to 79 = 0.25; 80 to 159 = 0.50; 160 to 639 = 0.75; and > 640 = 1.0. The analysis process is relatively straightforward. Each Grid is multiplied by its weight value, so that the cells coded as “1” take on the weight value while all the “0” cells retain a value of 0. Because all fifteen grids were derived from the same source, the grid cells of each layer line up exactly with the cells from all the other layers. The overlay analysis procedure uses this fact to create a final result Grid whose individual cell values equal the sum of the values in the same location (on the same half-acre) from all fifteen layers. The maximum possible cell value in the final Grid is 1. Result Grid values for Iowa ranged from 0 to 1.0. A total of 275 cells (only 15 acres) were a “hit” in all fifteen data layers, though many were “misses” in all twelve layers (16,040 acres). The ESRI Spatial Analyst extension allows for the specification of an analysis mask. The analysis mask layer described above was used in this capacity to exclude areas of Iowa that don’t meet eligibility criteria for inclusion in the Forest Stewardship Program (open water, public lands, urban areas, etc.). To make interpretation of results easier and allow for computation of area statistics, three data classes were established to group the continuous cell values: Low, Medium and High Stewardship Potential. There are several possible methods for establishing class breaks. The Project group decided to use the Natural Breaks classification algorithm available in Arc View. Class definition values for the Iowa final results data are: Low Medium High 0 – 0.152 0.153 – 0.412 0.413 – 1.0 The final result grid was reclassified to an integer grid where 1 represents Low, 2 Medium, and 3 High.