MIT LIBRARIES
3 9080 03130 2414
working paper
department
of economics
Labor Force Macroeconomics in Egypt
:
Structure
of a General Equilibrium Model*
^i£?SI^
massachusetts
institute of
technology
50 memorial drive
Cambridge, mass. 02139
Youssef Boutros-Ghali and Lance Taylor
Department of Economics
M.I.T.
Cambridge, Mass.
October, 1980
M.I.T. Working Paper # 265*^
Labor Force Macroeconomics in Egypt;
Structure
of a General Equilibrium Model*
<^i£>Sf^
*The authors are at the Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of
Technology. The research described here was partly supported by a joint
research program of Cairo University and the Massachusetts Institute of
Technology which was financed by the Agency for International Development
and the World Bank.
The sponsoring institutions bear no responsibility for
the contents of this paper.
Digitized by the Internet Archive
in
2011 with funding from
Boston Library Consortium
Member
Libraries
http://www.archive.org/details/laborforcemacroeOObout
-1-
Intrcxiuctlon.
Since the mid-1970's Egypt has experienced major changes in its
economic and political structure.
Ths most salient economic developments
are in the availability of manpower (especially at skilled occupation
levels), expanded policy stiiriilus to private sector activity and
restructuring of the war economy toward a more growth-oriented system.
These changes are bound to have a significant inpact in the mediijn run,
especially vhen the new aspirations toward economic growth of Egyptian
policymakers collide with stnmctural limitations in Labor-Svipply, balance of
payments and savings' availability.
In the light of these develcmients an
important question inposes itself, namely, what are the substitution
possibilities available to the Egyptian economic structure that will allow
it to fulfill its growth ambitions within its constraints?
To answer this question, a con^sutable general equilibrium model is
built around a social accounting matrix (SAM) set ip by a team of economists
from Cairo University, MTT, and the Egyptian Ministry of Planning.
This
paper aims to describe in detail this model with its structviral equations,
factor constraints, and
datza
basis.
Section I describes the general
features of the model; section II details the production, factor demands and
income generation blocks of the model; section III presents the closure
inposed
cxi
the stnnjcture.
The data basis generated for the specific needs
of this model is presented in section IV.
consistency run of the model.
Finally, section
V presents a
A General Equilibrium Model for Egypt
The model presented in this paper follows closely a computable general
equilibrium model built by the Planning Methods Project of the joint Cairo
University/M. I.T. Research Program.
Since the details of the model are
available in Eckaus, McCarthy and Mohie-Eldin (19 79)
(henceforth ECM)
,
we
will limit ourselves in this section to outline the general features of the
model and its mechanism without going into the details of its structural
equations.
Section II will take up its detailed presentation of the
structural equations that differentiate out model from the E.C.M. model.
Table
form.
1
presents
t±ie
basic equations of the model in very stylized
Its mechanisms are fairly straightforward.
the material balance equations (e.q. (1).
Outpi± is determined in
This in turn determines t±e level
of value added and factor demands. Value added, in turn, determines incomes,
consumption, and government tax revenue (equations (2), (3), (4) and (5)).
Outpiit prices are cost -determined in e.q.
(5)
with consunption in turn
determined by valiie added and all other terms in equation (1) determined
exogenous ly.
A new level of
outptit is established.
balance will determine equilibrium output.
A savings investment
Ctorresponding to tiiis output are
factor demands.
These are matched with factor constraints to determine
factor returns.
These in turn feed back into output prices (via P^ in
equation 5) leading to new incomes, consumptions, factor demands, etc.
General equilibrium is obtained when the savings investment balance hDlds
and factor markets clear simultaneously.
the iQDdel.
Details are left to E.C.M.
Figure 1 presents a flow-chart of
(79).
Before we move to present our model a few basic features of the E.C.M.
model -- many of
mentioning.
Aiiiich
will carry over into our story
—
are worth
The valve added "production functions" are Cobb-Douglas
-3-
Table
1
Material Balance
X=AX+C+G+E+I+As
(1)
V = P(K, L, X)
(2)
Value Added
Incomes
12
Y. = Z
a..pYv.(l
i=l, ...,12
-t.)+S.
j
= 1,
.
.
.
,
6
(3)
ConsuiTiption
C,
= E C. .(Y.)
i =
1,
....
12
(4)
J
Price Determination
Price of Value Added
P
= g(w, r)
Price of output
P.
= vpT
12
+Za.
P
+t.P. + P*mi
(5)
Government Expenditures & Revenue
R = I t.P. EE t..V.
,
1
11..
iJ
E = G + Z S.
ji 1
(6)
-A-
Forotgn Trade
12
=
Z P.E
Exports
i
Imports =
l ?*
1
m.x. + I C
XI
(7)
.mi
.
J
Factor Market Constraints
Z L^(W/P)
^
i
= L
E K^(r/P)
=
(8)
K
The model has 12 sectors built around an input-output matrix.
Consumers
are divided into six groups by size distribution of income and sector (three
for the urban sector and three for the rural sector.)
Land, and Labor.
Factors are Capital,
Production is for most sectors divided between private
sector, production and public sector production.
-5-
FIGURE
1
Initial Output Guess
4-
Output
X
Value Added
V
Initial Factor
Returns
Prices
Guess
W
o
,
<r
P
r
o
Incomes
Y
Consumption
C
Final Demand
C+G+E+I+AS
Factor
Excess Demands
i
Factor
Returns W
"r
^1
= X,
.
-6-
functions vath their inplications of fixed fee tor shares and unit
elasticities of si±>stitution.
This feature will be changed in the model
presented in this paper as explained below.
explicitly.
Money does not enter the model
Government deficit (determined endogenous ly) is presumably
financed ty mcxiey creation.
No money demand equations are specified.
The
inflation rate is endogenous, i.e. the price determination equations are not
homogeneous of
degree in nominal values.
As a consequence of this lack of honogeneity, the savings investment
balance is attained through forced savings inqjosed in part through fector
returns.
Foreign savings is determined endogenous ly; since real exports are
fixed, it is implicitly assumed that the nominal exchange rate (for exports
only) will move to keep them constant.
With this brief exposition of the E.C.M. model section II below will
outline the differences between this model and ours.
II.
Factor Substitution in a General Equilibrium Framework
For our model to answer questions about sx±)stitution possibilities in
the Egyptian system, a basic reformulation of the value added production
function is introduced.
In this section
\te
present new production functions
introduced and their iiiplications for income determination and fector
demands
II - A:
The Production Function
As in
t±ie
E.C.M. model, our model is built around a twelve sector
input-output matrix and its production functions are assumed to be with
fixed coefficients in valvie added and intermediates:
X = vV + Za., X, + m X
Ji i
i
i i
i
(Il-l)
-7-
l.e. value added Is a fixed proportion of output along with domestic and
intermediates.
ijiiported
Real value added is "produced" according bo a two level C.E.S.
production function (as opposed to a Cobb-Douglas in the E.C.M. model),
i.e.
"'^''
^1 = ^^\
h''
where L. = a labor aggregate (explained below) in
K
= capital stock in i
T,
1
==
land in
("-2)
+ ^i ^i'' + ^i h''^
i
i
1-a^
where
=
h-
value added.
k
L
B
.
,
6
.
T
,
B.
= distribution parameters
corresponding to this production function is a cost function that will
determine the "price" of value added.
,
V,
P^ = [h\ w{^-^i> + b^ Rf-^i> + b^ zf-°i^]
1-0^
i
(11-3)
where
W
= is the unit cost of the labor aggregate input (defined below)
in i.
R
= the rental rate on capital in i
Z
= the rental rate on land in i
-8-
These two functions provide die first level of the C.E.S. functions
value added.
aggregate
The second level appears with the production of the labor
It is assumed that only a labor ffggregate enters the
Lj^.
production function for value added.
combining
—
fiDr
This aggregate is "produced" by
—
in a C.E.S. production function
three types of labor
—
skilled, blue collar, and unskilled.
thus ;
with;
= skilled labor in i
I
Ji.„
i2
= blue collar labor in 1
£.„ = unskilled labor in i
1-a.
M, =
J^i
Y
12
Y,,
.
i
i
where o
is the elasticity of substitution between the
various labor inputs
3
^. = are distribution coefficients
1
Again corresponding to this "production function" a cost function will
determine the cost of the labor agcreeate W
"
^
W, = [g,(w)^^
+ Si "21
The cost of this labor aggregate W
.
i
i.e:
+ ^i -31
1
(^^-5)
will enter the cost function in
(II-3)
to determine the price of value added P^.
II-B;
Factor Demands
Coupled with these cost equations, factor demand equations are derived
along neoclassical lines.
-9-
o.
R.
-o.
h-hU-i^ 'Vi
1 =
a
-o
Z
1..
.
12
(II-6-A)
i
„
il
ijl
R
,
= Y
1
.
J
J
j
= 1,
f
ii
V
o,
1
[
1
w. ^
i
^
2,
(1I-6-B)
^l\
]
i
3
i = 1,
.
12
-10-
\
It is worth noting that demand for the three types of labor enbodies
the two stages of tie aggregate C.E.S. functions in (II-2) and (II-4), i.e.
the first stage calculates the demand for the labor sggregate L^ and the
second stage calculates vath this given
the demand for the indivldioal
L^^
skills.
Inccane Generation
II - C:
As was mentioned in Table
1 the E.C.M.
model divides consumers into six
income groijps, the grouping being made accordipg to the size distribution of
Now the distribution of value added around fee tors in both the
income.
E.C.M. model and our model is straightforward, the only difference being
that with Cobb-Douglas production fijnctions (in the E.C.M. version) factor
shares are constant; in the model presented here because of the C.E.S.
functions fector shares are variable.
factor returns
—
Their derivative with respect to real
—
as is known for C.E.S. 's
will be positive or negative
depending on vhether tie elasticity of substitution is greater or smaller
than unity.
depend for
It is worth notipg here that labor shares in value added will
tiiese
derivatives on both intra- factor and intra- skill
elasticities of substitutions, i.e.
where
Ji is the share in V.A. of the
industry.
j*^'^
skill group in the
i*-*^
Now contrary to the E.C.M. model we have no data on the mapping
from the functional income distribution to the size distribution.
rule was therefore adopted to generate this mapping.
A
sinple
It was assumed that
land and capital incomes accrue to the various income groups in tte same
proportions as those in the E.C.M. mapping.
As for labor, it was assimed
-11-
that skilled labor income vent to
top 10% income grovps, blue collar to
t±ie
the middle 30% income groijp, and unskilled labor incane to the bottom 60%
income grov:ps.
Labor value added accruing to each income groxjp in the
E.C.M. model was used to calibrate the distribution in our model.
parameters of the mapping were assumed constant.
The
Income for the k
income group is thus:
12
12
3
.
,,
11
1
or;
Y.,
o;
,
=
=rz
v.x.
12
V
V
12
^
12
C.
R.
a^
Z.
j=l h=l
^
Jl^
"J
-a.
B.J r-j-]]
^
-^]
o^
3
R.
J
W.
°A
'^nj
pV-"-"
il
J
where;
k
= share of re k-th income class in profit income in re j-th
^.
^
£
sector.
T
= shave of re k-th income class in rent income in the j-th
jk
sector.
,
•'
f
,
ik
-"
= share of re k-th income class in type n labor income in
sector
j
.
-12-
III.
Model Closvire.
As is clear from
tiie
nature of cxanputable general equilibrivjm models of
the E.C.M. type, the closure of the model will markedly affect the results
of the comparative macro- statics performed.
By closure
vie
mean the
specificaticai of which factors will be constrained in the model since this
choice will determine vhich nominal factor returns will move to equate
The homogeneity of the model rules out any unemployment
supply and demand.
On the other hand, not constraining a fecrtor
in the constrained factors.
inplies a fixed nominal return to it, and therefore, if prices go
14),
a
In this model, after varioijs experiments, we settled
decreased real return.
on the following constraints.
i)
Unskilled Labor:
In view of observed recent increases in vrages,
(mainly nominal but also real) we decided to constrain the supply of
unskilled labor.
Perfect labor mobility is assumed between the agricultural
sectors and the non- industrial sectors, (construction, housing, transportation, services).
The industrial sectors (textiles, intermediate and capital
goods industries and oil production) are constrained separately witii perfect
labor mobility
amcarjg
them.
Wage differentials among sectors
(within each of the two groxjps above) are kept fixed.
This is to represent
institutional barriers to wage equalization via labor mobility that the
model cannot handle.
Note that the differential between the two groups of
unskilled workers (agricultxjal/non-indiistrial and industrial) can vary.
ii) For blue collar workers,
we chose to constrain their supply in the
agricultural and the food processirig sectors (with full mobility ard fixed
wage differentials)
.
A
separate constraint was iaposed far the Industrial
—
-13-
sectors (defined above) and one for services and transportation.
In view of
the important role migration has played in the availability of labor
fiar
the
construction and housing sectors,** we chose to isolate their blue collar
workers by assuming no mobility between the rest of
tiie
econoniy and these
two sectors.
iii) White Collar Workers
—
The 1961/62 nationalization and eniployment
drive led to an overstaffiiig of firms with white collar workers.*
This
along with the education policy of Egypt, stressing academic and university
training
— led
vis
not to constrain white collar enployment in activities
where the public sector predominates (all of the indvistrial sectors,
transport, communication, and services).
This lack of a supply constraint
does pose a problem in terms of the political econon^^ of Efeypt.
Most vhite
collar workers will remain with a fixed noninal wage and thus (as the model
results show) a decreasing real wage.
However, given that vhite collar
workers constitute a sizable portion of the politically vocal strata, sudi a
decrease in their real wage seems dubioijs.
performed to capture this point.
vMte
Some experiments can be
Regarding other sectors, we constrain
collar workers in agriculture (again with free mobility and fixed wage
differentials).
Finally, followipg the argument for blue collar workers,
construction and hoxjsing have their labor stqjplies constrained separately.
*See R. Mabro and S. Radwan:
Clarendon Press, Oxford, 1973.
**See Eckaus and Mohie-Eldin.
The Industrialization of Egypt: 1939-1979,
.
-14-
—
iv) Capital
capital has proven to be the most difficult factor to
pia down since data for capital stocks and capacity utilizaticxi are very
poor in Egypt.*
We have therefore assumed that there is no constraint oa
capital in agriculture, it beipg of a rather traditional nature and easily
reproducible.
In the rest of the economy evidence suggests that there was invitilized
capacity until around 1973.
Me therefore proceeded as follows.
Using
educated guesses for capital- output ratios, we ccaiputed capital in use in
the 12 sectors (along with base year profit rates), and assumed unused
capacity to be 18.1% in indxostry and 8.0% in the remaining non- agricultural
sectors** (these somev^tet low figures take Into account the drive for
increased production after 1973 and presumably the increase in capacity
vised)
.
Ws then constrained the capital stock in the public sector portion
of all non-agricultural sectors, with fixed profit differentials and full
mobility (which in the context of the public sector seems plausible)
As for the service sector, we chose not to constrain its capital since
the concept of capital in that sector (which includes the Suez Canal and
tourism) is not well defined.
v) Land
—we
have normalized the base year rent on land at unity and
therefore land is meas\jred in normalized units.
It represents cropped
acreage (as opposed to actual acreage) since crop rotation constraints have
not been taken into consideration.
Vfe
thus impose only a constraint on
total land use in agriculture.
*See Mabro and Radwan, (76
)
**See Mabro and Radwan, (76) and Radwan (74)
-15-
Data Base.
IV.
1
-
Labor
Obviously the extension of the model to a nore detailed picture of the
Egyptian econoiny requires expanding its data base.
various soxjrces (disciissed below) did not
classification (see Table
1)
.
This data collected from
match our twelve sector
The sectors In which the data on employment
by skills, capital (when available) and wages by skill are classified are
listed
CXI
the left-hand side of Table 2 (below).
twelve sector aggregation (for details see E.C.M.
Now based on the E.C.M.
(79)) the mapping from the
nine sectors of official pijblications into our twelve sectors is shown in
Table
2.
This mapping is based on labor value added weights (since it is
going to be used to distribute enployment among sectors)
.
The numbers in
parentheses indicate that some of our twelve sectors drew their labor from
more than one of the (official publication) left-hand sectors in the
proportions shown.
The data on total enployment by sector was taken from
"AL TAWAZOFF WAL OJOUR for 1975" pxjblished by CAFMAS.
This first mapping provided
sectors.
\js
with en^jloyment by sector
Next a skill proportions matrix
fiar
cur twelve
was used to break down total
enployment by sector into enployment by skill level (skilled, blue collar
and unskilled) by sector.
Finally the breakdown of employment by skill and by sector into private
sector enployment and government sector enployment was done according to the
respective shares in total labor value.
The resulting final distribution of
labor is shown in Table 3.
Provided in an xnpublished docviment of the Vforld Bank
-16-
TABLE 2
Offlclfll Classification
Model Classification
Agriculture
Staple Food
N-Staple Food
Cotton
Other Agriculture
Manufacturing
Food Process liTg
Textile Industry
Other Industry (.8)
Gas and Electricity
Other Industry (.2)
Construction
Construction
Housing (.7)
Mining
Crude Oil and Products
Transportation and Conmunlcatlon
Transportation and
Coramunicatlon
Tradlr^
Finance
Services
Services
Housing (.3)
-17-
TABLE 3A
THE BASE PERIOD EMPLOYMENT MATRIX
PRIVATE SECTOR IN 0,000 UNITS
Sector
White Collar
Blue Collar
Unskilled
Staple Food
1.159685
1.632348
71.327423
Non-Staple Food
2.459472
3.462008
152.154388
Cotton
0.831700
1.170799
51.996399
Other Agriculture
1.782300
2.508599
110.176193
Food Processing Industry
0.126670
2.284715
8.418262
Textile Industry
0.159477
2.885838
10.633100
Other Industry
0.302428
2.175154
7.577731
Construction
2.211554
3.541041
3.979243
Crude Oil and Products
0.089849
0.134120
0.665247
Transportation and
Communication
0.308776
1.188485
1.133301
Housing
2.698134
5.873165
3.196939
19.041611
75.777512
14.072956
Other Services
-18-
TABLE 3B
THE BASE PERIOD EMPLOYMENT MATRIX
GOVERNMENT SECTOR IN 0,000 UNITS
Sector
White Collar
Blue Collar
Unskilled
Staple Food
0.117614
0.165551
7.233969
Non-Staple Food
0.208928
0.294091
12.925243
Cotton
0.0
0.0
0.0
Other Agriculture
0.0
0.0
0.0
Food Processing Industry
0.51730
0.935984
3.448731
Textile Industry
0.367723
6.654156
24.517792
Other Industry
1.186272
8.532043
29.723648
Construction
5.560145
8.902656
10.004355
Crude Oil and Products
0.376951
0.562680
2.790952
Transportation and
Communication
4.645824
17.881912
17.051590
Housing
0.060564
0.131834
0.071761
37.851471
150.632690
27.974625
Other Services
-19-
TABLE 4
WAGES BY SKILL/SECTCR (00 LE)
Sectors
White Collar
Blue Collar
Unskilled
Staple Food
7.068000
3.500000
1.599999
Non-Staple Food
6.786999
3.500000
1.599999
Cotton
5.795500
3.500000
1.599999
Other Agricult\are
7.000000
3.500000
3.000000
Food Processing Industry
10.065000
5.879999
3.000000
Textile Industry
10.033998
5.879999
3.000000
Other Industry
12.113000
6.099999
3.299999
6.960400
4.000000
2.000000
10.501999
6.000000
3.500000
Transportation and
Communication
9.001000
4.500000
2.500000
Housing
5.606999
4.500000
2.500000
Other Services
6.000000
3.750000
2.750000
Construction
Crude Oil and Products
-20-
TABLE
5
TOTAL CAPITAL IN THE TWELVE SECTORS
Staple Food
Non-Staple Food
723.44995
2016.12012
Cotton
373.64990
Other Agriculture
696.00000
Food Processing Industry
913.19995
Textile Industry
885.00000
Other Industry
Construction
5568.00000
318.00000
Crude Oil and Products
1522.50000
Transportation and Communication
1154.00000
Housing
1420.00000
Other Services
4677.00000
-21-
TABLE 6
CAPITAL STOCKS
AND CAPITAL OUTPUT RATIOS
Capital
Output
Ratios
Capital
in the
Sectors
Private Sector
Public Sector
1.59
Staple Food
1.59
Non-Staple Food
1.59
Cotton
373.64990
0.0
1.5
Other Agriculture
696.00000
0.0
0.6
Food Processing Industry
794.46533
118.73444
1.0
Textile Industry
597.62744
287.37231
4.0
Other Industry
1037.55786
4530.44141
0.5
Construction
99.28339
218.71660
2.5
Crude Oil and Products
270.99023
1251.50952
2.0
Transportation and
Communication
71.63484
1082.36499
Housing
1266.63867
153.36115
Other Services
4129.18750
547.80908
10.0
1.5
618.53979
104.91000
1718.26929
297.85059
-22-
TABLE
7
RATES OF RETURN ON CAPITAL BY SECTOR
Sectors
Private Capital
Government Capital
Staple Food
0.14298
0.14298
Non-Staple Food
0.17123
0.17123
Cotton
0.16867
0.0
Other Agriculture
0.11453
0.0
Food Processing Industry
0.11791
0.11791
Textile Industry
0.18443
0.18443
Other Industry
0.06511
0.06511
Construction
0.38406
0.38406
Crude Oil and Products
0.19896
0.19896
Transportation and
Communication
0.24114
0.24114
Housing
0.05868
0.05869
Other Services
0.15881
0.15881
-23-
TABLE
8
CAPITAL LABOR AND LABOR LABOR
ELASTICITIES OF SUBSTITUTION
Sector
K/L
L/L
Staple Food
1.3
3.0
Non-Staple Food
1.3
3.0
Cotton
l.A
3.0
Other Agriculture
1.3
3.0
Food Processing Industry
.53
3.0
Textile Industry
.52
3.0
Other Industry
.79
3.0
Construction
1.2
3.0
Crude Oil and Products
.45
3.0
Transportation and Conununlcation
.2
3.0
1.6
3.0
Housing
Other Services
-24V.
The Consistency Run
Tables
below show the values for the main production, consumption,
and government deficit figures resulting from a (Base) consistency run.
The figures are self-explanatory and do not need comment.
-25-
I
I
I
I
I
W
o
*
m
l>-
(O
0>
^
o>
^
o
in
CM
CM
in
100
in
0)
CO
t~
00
^
r-
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REFERENCES
Eckaus, R.S,, McCarthy F.D. and Mohie Eldin, A., "Multisector General
Equilibrium Models For Egypt," M.I.T. Department of Economics Working
Paper No. 233, March, 1979,
Mabro, R. and Radwan, S.
"The Industrialization of Egypt 1939-1973,"
Clarendon Press. Oxford, 1976.
,
Radwan, S. , "Capital Formation in Egyptian Industry and Agriculture 18821967," Ithica Press. London, 1974.
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