Susceptibility of Forests in the Northeastern U.S. to Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition: Implications for Forest Health CRITICAL LOADS Nnut APPROACH The approach we used to determine acceptable levels of deposition is a steady-state, ecosystem mass balance for nutrient cations (calcium, magnesium, and potassium). We calculated the critical load (CL) of S + N (the level of deposition below which no harmful ecological effects occur for a forest ecosystem), and the exceedance (the difference between the current deposition and the CL), which can be used to identify susceptible forest ecosystems. DATA USED Precipitation and climate ClimCalc Model www.pnet.sr.unh.edu/climcalc Nutrient removal plot biomass measures were used to calculate harvestable biomass, Tree Chemistry Database values were used for nutrient concentrations (http://www.hubbardbrook.org/treechem/index.htm) Mineral weathering The substrate type/clay content method was used to estimate soil mineral weathering rates. The primary soil series were determined from digitized county soil survey maps (Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) Database). The Official Soil Series Descriptions were used to determine minimum, maximum and midpoint values for the required soil parameters (depth, clay percent, texture, moisture, substrate type). The midpoint value is the midpoint of the range (max-min). For comparison NSSC soil pit data (Soil Survey Staff, 2003) were averaged across New England to generate mean values for the required soil parameters by soil series, however, because pit data were not available for many areas, these values are not necessarily representative. BACKGROUND Acid deposition is caused by emissions of sulfur (S) and nitrogen (N) from power plants and vehicles. Although S emissions have decreased, as a result of SO2 control programs, projected emissions of acidifying S and N compounds are expected to have continuing negative impacts on forest health and productivity. In addition, N deposition can be harmful to forests beyond these impacts of acidification, because excess N can lead to N saturation and plant nutrient imbalances. Nutrient depletion leads to increases in the susceptibility of forests to climate, pest and pathogen stress which results in reduced forest health, reduced growth, increased mortality, and eventual changes in forest species composition. CRITICAL LOADS N+S lpardo@fs.fed.us EXCEEDANCE Nnut CL for Acidity CL S+N = BCdep + BCw – BCu – BCle (1) where: BCdep = sum of Ca + Mg + Na+ K deposition rate (eq ha-1 yr-1) BCw = soil weathering rate of Ca + Mg + K + Na (eq ha-1 yr-1) BCu = net Ca + Mg + K uptake rate (eq ha-1 yr-1) removed by harvest or disturbance BCle = acceptable acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) leaching rate (eq ha-1 yr-1). The acceptable ANC leaching rate, BCle, is calculated based on the critical chemical criteria of no change in base saturation according the NEG/ECP Forest Mapping Group Protocol (NEG/ECP, 2001). In order to achieve the condition of no change in base saturation, a BC/Al ratio of 10 (mol/mol) was used. CL for Nutrient N CLnut(N) can be expressed as CLnut(N) = Na + Nu + Nde + Nle Na-N accumulated in soil Nu- net N removal via biomass Nde-N loss via denitrification assumed 0 Nle-accceptable N leaching The acceptable N leaching rate, Nle, is the maximum acceptable leaching rate for an ecosystem that is not at N saturation. This leaching rate is given by Nle(acc) = Q*[N]crit (2) where: Nle(acc) =acceptable leaching of N [N]crit =the N concentration in the soil solution above which it would be considered detrimental to ecosystem or soil [N]crit was set at 0.2 g N/m3, per the ICP Mapping and Modelling Manual (http://www.oekodata.com/icpmapping/index.html). CL Nnut are typically lower than CL S+N, so the CL Nnut was exceeded for nearly all plots in the Northeast. High Transparency vs. Exceedance High Dieback vs. Exceedance 100 70 90 60 % of Trees with High Dieback OBJECTIVE To relate measures of forest susceptibility to acid deposition with indicators of forest health in order to assess the impact of acid deposition in the northeastern US. Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Burlington, VT % of Trees with High Transparency Linda H. Pardo, Natasha Duarte 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 50 40 30 20 10 10 0 EXCEEDANCE N+S -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 0 1000 2000 Exceedance -6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 Exceedance FOREST HEALTH INDICATORS CT CL(S+N) 80 80 80 80 60 40 20 0 0 0 0 500 1000 Total number of sites 0 3000 500 1000 17 19 10 10 18 33 37 2 185 713 591 1414 778 NSSC Mean 2000 3000 4000 5000 0 6000 Mid NSSC Mean Best Case MA Exceedance (S+N) Worst Case Mid NSSC Mean Best Case ME Exceedance (S+N) 80 60 40 20 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Mid -1500 -500 Worst Case NSSC Mean 3000 Best Case 1500 Mid 4000 5000 Worst Case 6000 NSSC Mean 20 0 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 NSSC Mean Worst Case 2000 3000 Mid Worst Case 2000 1000 2000 3000 4000 Mid Worst Case NSSC Mean CL(S+N) Across New England and New York 40 4000 6000 8000 10000 0 12000 0 2000 4000 Worst Case 6000 8000 10000 12000 CL(S+N) (eq/ha/yr) Mid Best Case NSSC Mean Worst Case Mid Best Case Exceedance of (S+N) across New England and New York 100 80 60 40 80 60 40 60 40 20 20 0 -2500 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 0 -10000 -7500 Best Case Mid Worst Case -5000 -2500 0 2500 5000 7500 0 -10000 -8000 Exceedance ( eq/ha/yr) Exceedance (eq/ha/yr) NSSC Mean Best Case NSSC Mean VT Exceedance (S+N) % Sites % Sites 1000 Worst Case 0 100 Exceedance (eq/ha/yr) Best Case Mid NSSC Mean Best Case 20 0 -1000 CL(S+N) (eq/ha/yr) Mid Best Case 20 0 4000 Mid Exceedance (eq/ha/yr) 40 20 80 -1000 2000 60 40 Worst Case 100 RI Exceedance (S+N) 20 1000 60 Best Case 40 0 VT CL(S+N) 60 7000 60 -1000 80 80 -2000 Best Case CL(S+N) (eq/ha/yr) Mid -2000 80 100 -3000 -3000 80 100 -4000 -4000 0 -2000 Exceedance (eq/hay/r) Worst Case 3000 40 100 NY Exceedance (S+N) 0 -5000 0 -5000 2500 2500 60 100 CL(S+N) (eq/ha/yr) NSSC Mean 500 2000 20 RI CL(S+N) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2000 40 Exceedance (eq/ha/yr) NY CL(S+N) 1000 60 20 0 -2500 3000 1500 NH Exceedance (S+N) 80 40 1000 CL(S+N) (eq/ha/yr) 80 60 500 CL(S+N) (eq/ha/yr) 80 Best Case % Sites 1000 100 0 Other forest surveys included in this assessment: VMC-FH=Vermont Monitoring Cooperative Forest Health Plots; NAMP=North American Maple Program; VT HHS=Vermont Hardwood Health Survey; NRCS=National Resources Conservation Service soil pits Worst Case Exceedance (eq/ha/yr) 4064 0 3500 100 61 103 3000 100 0 -1500 -1000 75 280 Best Case % Sites 56 2500 100 62 27 Mid 20 35 2000 % Sites 4 Worst Case 1500 CL(S+N) (eq/ha/yr) CT Exceedance (S+N) 509 VT Additional Research Sites Total number of sites by state 2500 % Sites 402 99 VT HHS NRCS 2000 % Sites 22 VT VMC-FH NAMP 1500 %Sites 31 552 1012 RI 40 20 % Sites 3 631 NY 40 60 20 % Sites 12 116 NH % Sites 231 ME % Sites FHM (P3 plots) 40 60 20 NSSC Mean FIA (P2 plots) 60 % Sites 100 % Sites 100 CL(S+N) (eq/ha/yr) MA NH CL(S+N) 100 SITE LOCATIONS CT ME CL(S+N) 100 0 Site Group MA CL(S+N) % Sites % Sites According to FIA protocol, the publicly available coordinates for all New York FIA plots are the geographic center of the county within which the plot is located (county centroid). Therefore it was not possible to show spatial patterns within the county. Instead, we plotted the mean of the county for the entire county, in order to give a general idea of the larger-scale, regional spatial patterns. The most susceptible forest ecosystems are in mountainous regions where glacial till and soils are thinnest, and where atmospheric deposition rates are highest. The cumulative frequency charts (below) show the best case, worst case and mid scenarios that demonstrate the range in CL and exceedance caused by different estimates of mineral weathering. The percentage of plots where the CL was exceeded in the mid scenario ranged from 13% in RI to 62% in NY. Since the weathering rates are based on depth and clay content ranges for the soil series rather than those measurements on the site, our ability to identify the most sensitive sites is limited. The map (mid scenario; above) does a better job of identifying general patterns under average conditions than in identifying individual sensitive sites. NSSC Mean Best Case Mid Worst Case -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000 4000 6000 Exceedance (eq/ha/yr) NSSC Mean Best Case Mid Worst Case NSSC Mean We expected indicators of damage to be higher at sites where deposition exceeded the CL (exceedance>0), however, we observed no such pattern for canopy transparency or dieback, mortality, low density, or moderate-severe decline. This lack of correlation may reflect that factors other than acid deposition may be the dominant forces influencing damage at this time. The main difficulty with the current assessment is that, because the CL estimates are not based on site soil measurements, they may not reflect the most sensitive sites’ susceptibility to acid deposition. CL estimates could be improved with more detailed plot soils information. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FHM SAMPLING/ANALYSIS • Soil sampling by horizon rather than depth including depth and bulk density measurements • Measurement of soil depth to bedrock • Soil sampling to bedrock or to bottom of rooting zone • Exchangeable base cation measurement • Soil mineralogy measurements Members of the Forest Mapping Working Group Pilot Phase Technical Group Jean-Christophe Aznar, INRS-ETE University of Quebec Paul Arp, University of New Brunswick Bill Breckenridge, Eastern Canadian Provinces Secretariat Ian DeMerchant, Natural Resources Canada Natasha Duarte, USDA Forest Service Guy Fenech, Environment Canada Wendy Leger, Environment Canada Eric Miller, Ecosystems Research Group, Ltd. Heather Morrison, Environment Canada Rock Ouimet, Forestry Québec, Canadian Co-Chair Linda H. Pardo, USDA Forest Service Scott Payne, Department of Forest Resources and AgriFoods Rheal Poirrier, Eastern Canadian Provinces Secretariat Sandy Wilmot, Vermont Agency of Natural Resources, US Co-Chair Collaborators/Funding Agencies Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection Joint Conference of New England Governors and Eastern Canadian Premiers Maine Department of Environmental Protection New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services, Air Resources Division Northeastern States for Coordinated Air Use Management Northern States Research Cooperative US Environmental Protection Agency USDA, Forest Health Monitoring Program, Evaluation Monitoring Vermont Agency of Natural Resources Acknowledgements: This project was completed with assistance in assembling data from: Charlie Cogbill; Thomas Frieswyk, USDA Forest Service; Phil Girton, Vermont Monitoring Cooperative; Eric Miller, Ecosystems Research Group, Ltd.; Rock Ouimet, Forestry Québec; Judy Rosovsky, Vermont Monitoring Cooperative; and Sandy Wilmot, Vermont Agency of Natural Resources. Edmund M. Hart, Molly Robin-Abbott, and Bethany Zinni of the USDA Forest Service assisted with data manipulation. We are especially indebted to Liz LaPoint, GIS specialist in the USDA Forest Service FIA Program for her extensive assistance in making these calculations. For more information on Critical Loads, go to http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/clean_air_water/clean_water/critical_loads/