Estimating Snag Densities Using Aerial Survey Data Keith Sprengel1, Julie Johnson2, Bruce Hostetler3 Kim Mellen4, Beth Willhite5 USDA Forest Service Introduction Forest land managers interested in maintaining healthy ecosystems must evaluate effects of existing or proposed management activities on organisms that use snags, down wood and other wood decay elements. Recent development of the “DecAID Advisor” has provided an important tool for helping estimate dead wood requirements in analysis areas. DecAID is an internet-based synthesis of published scientific literature, research data, wildlife databases, forest inventory databases and expert judgment and experience. It addresses current vegetative conditions (unharvested and managed); provides relevant summaries of snags and down wood; and presents information on wildlife use of snags and down wood data. It also provides information on insects and pathogens and their role in creating and retaining dead wood. Information in DecAID should be applied at minimum scales of 5th field watersheds. Pacific Northwest Region Snag density (#/acre); snags > 25 cm dbh as a percent of Forest cover 60.0% Upper Sycan River Watershed (USRW) showing aerial survey reported mortality recorded in the > 25 cm dbh class between 1995 and 2004 for the PPDF wildlife habitat type. Aerial Survey Data 1995-2004 Unharvested Inventory Plots 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% USRW 20.0% >0 <4 tpa 10.0% >4 <8 tpa >8 <12 tpa >16 >12<16 >8<12 >4<8 >0<4 0.0% 0 One important aspect of dead wood analyses is ascertaining the current status of snags and down wood within and in the vicinity of a project area. This project examines how aerial survey data can aid managers in developing a picture of the ‘current situation’ for the incidence, distribution and condition of snags (which are potential down wood) across a landscape. >12 <16 tpa >16 tpa Distribution of the unharvested area of the PPDF_S Vegetation Condition among snag density classes (#/acre) for snags > 25 cm dbh, based on 302 unharvested inventory plots compared to Aerial Insect and Disease Survey data converted to snags > 25 cm dbh using conversion factors generated from inventory plot data. Photo by Alan Dyck Upper Sycan River Watershed (USRW) showing aerial survey reported mortality recorded in the > 25 cm dbh class between 1995 and 2004 for the EMC_ECB wildlife habitat type. Snag Density (#/acre); > 25 cm dbh as a percent of Forest Cover 60.0% Aerial Survey Data 1995-2004 Unharvested Inventory Plots 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% >6 <12 tpa 10.0% >12 <18 tpa >30 >24<30 >18<24 >12<18 >6<12 >0<6 Methods Key Findings •Aerial survey data consistently provided a conservative estimate of snag densities in the study watershed in both the PPDF and EMC_ECB wildlife habitat types for all of the examined diameter classifications. •Mean snag density predicted from analysis of 10 years of aerial survey data = 13.34 trees per acre (TPA). Inventory plot data based conversion factor applied to aerial survey data for summarizing snags > 25 cm dbh = 5.17 TPA. Snag density estimate derived from field study for snags > 25 cm dbh = 16.32 TPA. •Inventory plot generated conversion factors underestimated the percent of snags in all diameter classes and for all species measured, providing conservative estimates of snag densities in diameter classes of interest (> 25 cm dbh and >50 cm dbh). •Analysis of aerial survey data provides a cost effective method for estimating snag densities and distributions at 5th field watershed scales. •Results of aerial survey data analysis may eliminate the need to conduct expensive ground surveys in some strata and/or for some size classes of snags. Upper Sycan River Watershed >24 <30 tpa Distribution of the unharvested area of the EMC_ECB_S Vegetation Condition among snag density classes (#/acre) for snags > 25 cm dbh, based on 754 unharvested inventory plots compared to Aerial Insect and Disease Survey data converted to snags > 25 cm dbh using conversion factors generated from inventory plot data. •The study area, located in south-central Oregon, consists of forested federal lands within the Upper Sycan River Watershed. Two wildlife habitat types (WHT) were sampled, the Ponderosa Pine/Douglas-fir (PPDF) and Eastside Mixed Conifer/Eastside Cascades and Blue Mountains (EMC_ECB). In order to use aerial survey data to estimate snag densities, we developed aerial survey code conversion factors based on inventory plot (CVS, FIA and BLM) summaries of snag data from each WHT. Ten years of cumulative mortality data, as recorded by aerial detection surveys from 1995 through 2004 (see http://www.fs.fed.us/r6/nr/fid/data.shtml for more information on Pacific Northwest Region Aerial Surveys) were then compared to ground data collected from stratified systematic random samples within two wildlife habitat types. •Areas which were harvested or burned by wildfire from 1995 through 2004 were excluded from the study. Only cover types classified as either Evergreen or Mixed Forest as defined in the National Land Cover data (NLCD) developed by USGS were used to represent “forested” conditions for inclusion in the study. •As a result of a pilot survey, the study area was stratified into three strata: EMC_ECB (small/medium trees); PPDF Open (large trees); and PPDF Closed (small/medium trees). WHT strata were used as defined by the Northwest Habitat Institute and Northwest Power and Conservation Council, 2000. Open/Closed strata were developed using Landsat7 imagery. •Using the ArcView Sample Point Generator (SPGen), developed by Vern Thomas and Marla Downing (USDA Forest Service, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team) and Robin Reich (Colorado State University), a grid of 200 X 200 m cell polygons with centered points was placed over the entire study area and 5 cells wre randomly selected from each stratum. At each selected point, azimuths were randomly selected using the random number function (RAND) in Excel. Starting at each sample point, four 50 m samples were taken along the continuous 200 m transect. Snags within 20 meters either side of the transect center line were measured for perpendicular distance to the line, species, diameter, height and structural decay class. Measured snags had to be > 1.8m tall and: > 20.3 cm dbh (ponderosa pine or white fir); or > 15.2 cm dbh (lodgepole pine) or > 7.6 cm dbh (whitebark pine). Diameter breakpoints were established relative to insect biology and what sizes of trees an aerial observer could be expected to see on an overview survey relative to various wildlife habitat types (Sprengel, Hostetler and Bridgwater, pers. com.). •Pilot survey data were analyzed using protocols developed by Bate et. al. (1999) to determine numbers of samples and optimal plot sizes needed for each strata to provide a stratified mean density estimate with a 90% confidence interval for qualifying snags in the study area. PPDF wildlife habitat area >18 24 tpa >30 tpa DBH Range cm Habitat Type 1 EMC_ECB wildlife habitat area >0 <6 tpa 0 Aerial view of ponderosa and lodgepole pine mortality attributed to mountain pine beetle. Random sample points USRW 20.0% 0.0% Upper Sycan River Watershed Study area showing wildlife habitat areas and sample points. Total Plots w/ snags Sum of Wtd. Plots w/ snags Sum of Wtd. snags/ acre Ave. snags/ acre 1. Set-up rules for each insect species host & habitat type combination that is recorded during aerial surveys 2. Using these rules we looked at the proportion of the inventory snag data by wildlife habitat type that could have been recorded by aerial surveys Percent by size class Ponderosa pine EMC_ECB 1080.5 4.3 20-25 >20 950 219.1 0.9 20.3 25-50 251.8 573.9 2.3 53.1 287.5 1.1 26.6 >50 Lodgepole pine EMC_ECB 964.2 12.0 15-25 649.4 8.1 67.4 25-50 >15 311 80.1 306.4 3.8 31.8 8.4 0.1 0.9 >50 Inventory plot data summary example resulting in the derivation of the aerial survey conversion factors. Example note: actual percent lodgepole > 25 cm in the EMC_ECB habitat type was 64.5% whereas only 34.7% of the aerial survey data was converted to represent lodgepole greater than 25 cm. Aerial Survey Recorded mortality Fir Engraver Mountain pine beetle in whitebark Mountain pine beetle in lodgepole Mountain pine beetle in ponderosa W estern pine beetle in large diameter ponderosa W estern pine beetle in pole-sized ponderosa Conversion factors developed from inventory plot snag data (CVS, FIA and BLM) and expert knowledge of insect/host biology. Conversion factors were summarized by wildlife habitat types. Diameter and trees per acre breakpoints identified as significant to wildlife in DecAID. 3. These proportions were applied to the aerial survey data to estimate the number of trees in each size class 4. This information was compared to the data gathered in the field study. EMC_ECB PPDF DBH Breakpoints (cm) DBH Breakpoints (cm) >25 >25<50 >50 >25 >25<50 >50 TPA breakpoint code TPA breakpoint code 3 1 1 2 1 1 ASD Conversion factor ASD Conversion factor 0.716 0.551 0.165 0.687 0.505 0.182 0.372 0.34 0.032 0.372 0.34 0.032 0.327 0.318 0.009 0.402 0.392 0.01 0.797 0.531 0.266 0.711 0.543 0.168 1.000 0.000 1.000 1.000 0.000 1.000 0.797 0.531 0.266 0.711 0.543 0.168 Xst (acres)= Varst= 16.321 2.125 Se = 1.458 Bound= 2.435 >2<6 >4<8 >6<12 >6<10 >8<12 >12<18 >10<14 >12<16 >18<24 >14<18 >18 >16 >24<30 >30 ksprengel@fs.fed.us phone 503-668-1476 Aerial Survey Program Coordinator; 2jjohnson@fs.fed.us phone 503-808-2998 GIS Analyst; 3bhostetler@fs.fed.us phone 503-6681475 Entomologist; 4kmellen@fs.fed.us phone 503-808-2677 Wildlife Ecologist; 5bwillhite@fs.fed.us phone 503-668-1477 Entomologist Acknowledgements Funding for this project was provided by Forest Health Monitoring Evaluation Monitoring Program and Forest Health Protection, Pacific Northwest Region. Excellent field work was provided by Paul Handy, Jennifer Deshong, and Ben Smith. Special thanks go to Sue Puddy, Rich Stubbs and Mike McNeil of the Fremont National Forest for rounding up spatial data on harvest and fire histories. Graphic design by Shelly York, Visual Information Specialist, Mt. Hood National Forest. References Cited Bate, Lisa J.; Garton, Edward O.; Wisdom, Michael J. 1999. Estimating Snag and Large Tree Densities and Distributions on a Landscape for Wildlife Management. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-425. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 76 p. http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/gtr_425.pdf Northwest Habitat Institute and Northwest Power and Conservation Council, 2000. http://www.nwhi.org/index/gisdata. Upper Limit= 18.755 Lower Limit= 13.886 TPA breakpoint Codes 1 2 3 >0<2 >0<4 >0<6 Future Research and Applications •Assess the impact of bark beetle caused mortality on standing dead and down fuels. •Assess the ability of aerial surveys to consistently make conservative estimations of snag and large tree densities and distributions at watershed scales in other wildlife habitat types, and to estimate the magnitude of the under estimation. •Investigate possible correlations between fuel loading and cumulative mortality as reported by aerial surveys. •Evaluate efficacy of plot (FIA/CVS/BLM) derived conversion factors for aerial survey relative to wildlife habitat types and significant trees per acre and diameter breakpoints identified in the Decayed Wood Advisor (DecAID). •Develop interactive aerial survey-derived cumulative mortality database for integration with DecAID. Level of Precision (%)= 15 Snag density estimates for non-aspen snags > 25 cm dbh and > 1.8 m tall: Results from data collected from stratified systematic random sample transects. United States Geological Survey National Land Cover data http://landcover.usgs.gov/prodescription.asp. Information on the Decayed Wood Advisor (DecAID) can be found at: http://wwwnotes.fs.fed.us:81/pnw/DecAID/DecAID.nsf ArcView Sample Point Generator http://permanent.access.gpo.gov/websites/fsfedus/www.fs.fed.us/ foresthealth/technology/spatialstatistics/sample.php.htm