Relationship between Price of Oil, Iraqi Oil Receipts, and GDP
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
$160
$8
$7
$140
$6.97
Estimated Monthly GDP
$6
$120
$5
$100
$4.61
$81.99
$4
$3
$80
$60
Daily Oil Price
$40
$2
$1
Daily Oil Price ($ per barrel)
Monthly Oil Receipts and Estimated GDP
($ Billions)
Global Recession
$20
Monthly Oil Receipts
$0
$0
($ Billions)
GDP
GOI Budget
Oil Receipts
$37.92
$35.99
$49.27
$62.38
$91.45
$70.10
$33.39
$16.52
$31.38
$32.10
$41.05
$72.18
$58.61
$72.36
$28.13
$35.88
$58.79
$37.02
$51.11
$21.86
$83.63
Macro Indicators: Iraq vs. Selected Countries
GDP ($ Billions)
$14,260.00
$876.00
$581.30
$448.10
UNITED STATES
IRAN
SAUDI ARABIA
PAKISTAN
Military
Spending
(as a % of GDP)
External Debt
(as a % of GDP)
11.4%
10.0%
8.6%
8.6%
5.9%
5.3%
4.1%
3.0%
5,228.1% LUXEMBOURG
94.3% UNITED STATES
44.9% IRAQ
$148.70 KUWAIT
$112.00 IRAQ
$102.50 SYRIA
21.9% KUWAIT
20.3% JORDAN
$33.06 JORDAN
$23.35 AFGHANISTAN
OMAN
SAUDI ARABIA
IRAQ
JORDAN
SYRIA
KUWAIT
UNITED STATES
PAKISTAN
2.5%
IRAN
1.9%
AFGHANISTAN
Adult Literacy
Rate (% aged
15 and above)
99.7% SLOVENIA
Infant Mortality
(per 1,000
live births)
2.3 SINGAPORE
99.0% UNITED STATES
94.5% KUWAIT
91.1% JORDAN
85.0% SAUDI ARABIA
83.1% SYRIA
82.3% IRAN
74.1% IRAQ
12.5% SAUDI ARABIA
11.6% PAKISTAN
11.6% AFGHANISTAN
6.2 UNITED STATES
9.0 KUWAIT
11.6 SAUDI ARABIA
16.7 SYRIA
17.4 JORDAN
Population
Growth Rate
3.7%
3.5%
2.6%
2.5%
2.2%
2.0%
1.8%
UAE
KUWAIT
AFGHANISTAN
IRAQ
JORDAN
SYRIA
SAUDI ARABIA
1.6% PAKISTAN
1.0% UNITED STATES
0.9% IRAN
35.8 IRAN
44.7 IRAQ
7.4% SYRIA
54.2% PAKISTAN
2.1% IRAN
0.0% BRUNEI
$0.33 ZIMBABWE
0.0%
28.0% AFGHANISTAN
26.2% MALI
ICELAND
Security Dilemma in Iraq
Int
ion
rat
eg
Shia
Population
Attacks
non-aligned
groups
Jaish alMahdi
Badr
Iraqi
Security Forces
U.S. Forces
Advise and Assist
Al-Qaeda
in Iraq
Training a nationally
representative, civilian-led, and
accountable ISF has been a
central goal of the reconstruction program. When the state is
unable to provide security, or it
is perceived as biased,
ethnosectarian groups turn to
non-state security forces for
protection and support. U.S.
forces seek to provide a
security guarantee to all groups
and break the cycle of violence
and recrimination. Despite
repeated attempts, integrating
or demobilizing non-state
forces remains a major security
challenge.
Attacks
Sunnis
Islamic State
of Iraq
Attacks
non-aligned
groups
-0.8% BULGARIA
ISF Capacity, as of 3/31/2010
Iran-supported
Special Groups
Seeks
protection &
support
Attacks
Shia
67.4 PAKISTAN
153.1 AFGHANISTAN
180.2 ANGOLA
Sons of
Iraq
Sunni
Population
Int
Islamic Army
in Iraq
Ba’athists
egr
atio n
Seeks
protection &
support
Ministry of Interior
Iraqi Police Service
Future
integration
or conflict
Kurdish
Population
Peshmerga
301,286
Iraqi Federal Police
43,937
Border Enforcement
42,348
Oil Police
29,396
Total MOI
416,967
Ministry of Defense
Iraqi Army
Training and Support
?
Personnel
Assigned
Personnel
Assigned
197,336
46,459
Air Force
4,023
Navy
2,910
Special Forces
4,120
Total MOD
254,848
Total ISF
671,815
Major Office Holders: Where Are They Now?
2002–6/28/2004
CPA
7/13/2003–6/1/2004
Iraqi Governing Council (Rotating Presidency)
Paul Bremer
8/03 Dawa
ex-pat Ahmed Chalabi
2010 Iraqi Budget ($ Millions)
ex-pat
Capital
$20,236
9/03
INC
Ayad Allawi
10/03
INL
Jalal Talabani
11/03
PUK
Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim
12/03
ISCI
Mohammad al-Ulum
3/04 (Tribal)
Massoud Barzani
4/04
5/3/2005–5/20/2006
5/20/2006–1/2010
Iraqi Transitional Government
First Permanent Government
Ghazi al-Yawer
(Tribal Leader)
Jalal Talabani
PUK
Jalal Talabani PUK
Ayad Allawi
INL
Ibrahim al-Ja’afari
Dawa
Nouri al-Maliki Dawa
ex-pat Barham Salih PUK
Rowsch Shaways
KDP
Ahmed Chalabi
INC
President
ex-pat Ibrahim al-Ja’afari
6/28/2004–5/2/2005
Iraqi Interim Government
Prime Minister
Deputy Prime Minister
Barham Salih PUK
KDP
Ibrahim al-Ja’afari
Dawa
Adel Abdul al-Mahdi
ISCI
Tariq al-Hashimi (Renewal List)
Rowsch Shaways
KDP
Ghazi al-Yawer
(Tribal Leader)
Adel Abdul al-Mahdi ISCI
Barham Salih
(Planning)
ex-pat Adel Abdul al-Mahdi (Finance)
Minister
Nechervan Barzani
Prime Minister of Kurdistan Region
KDP
Nechervan Barzani
KDP
Massoud Barzani
KDP
President of Kurdistan Region
LEGISLATIVE
Nechervan Barzani KDP Barham Salih PUK
Ahmed Chalabi (De-Ba’athification Committee)
EXECUTIVE
Elected legislature
CoR conducts
3 readings of legislation
then votes
Legislation
approved
KDP
Massoud Barzani
Prime Minister of Kurdistan Region
President of Kurdistan Region
CoR
JUDICIAL
$12
$90
Council of Representatives
Vice President
Minister
ex-pat Nouri al-Maliki Dawa
CoR
CoR legal
check
Deputy Prime Minister
Ahmed Chalabi (Oil)
Operating
$52,120
CoR drafts
legislation
Rowsch Shaways KDP
Rafi al-Eissawi (Iraqi National)
Abdul Mutlaq al-Jubouri (Tribal Leader)
Vice President
ex-pat Ghazi al-Yawer 6/04 (Tribal Leader)
$229
President
Prime Minister
$18
$250
Legislation
approved
President
Head of State
Higher Judicial Council
Supervises federal judiciary
Prime Minister
$105
Head of Government
Commander-in-Chief
$13
Commission on
Property Disputes
Shura Council
legal check
Commission on
Accountability and Justice
CoM drafts
legislation
Supreme Court
Final appeals court; determines
constitutionality of laws
Becomes
law
$303
$1,005
$6
$375
Appeals court
PM and Cabinet Ministers
Independent High Electoral
Commission
Judiciary Oversight
Commission
Court of Cassation
Council of Ministers
Budget, by Ministries
$ Millions
$20
$427
$963
$1,412
$3,490
Adjudicates cases of wrongdoing
$2,399
$2,653
Federal Budget Process
Oil
Electricity
$151
$385
$13
$256
Communications
Transportation
$197
$3,038
$6,029
$175
Provincial
Councils
Kurdistan
Region
$1,102
$2,179
Provincial
Management
$25
Provincial
Investment
Commissions
Authorizes
province
and ministry
spend plans
$174
$906
$476
Water
Resources
Agriculture
$140
$598
$427
Housing and
Construction
Industry and
Minerals
$50
$202
$722
$1,279
Planning and
Development
Municipalities and
Public Works
$4,311
Health
Education
Labor
$470
Higher Education and
Scientific Research
$24
$149
Environment
May return cases
with insufficient
evidence
$1,879
Youth and
Sports
$21
$60
Anticorruption Institutions
$299
$82
$21
$209
Forward cases
meriting action
$26
$96
Science and
Technology
Culture
$10,547
$9
$17
$13
$182
Investigates allegations of
public corruption
Trade
May return cases
due to limited
investigative
capacity
$13
$78
$299
$451
Foreign
Public officials and
private citizens report
cases of suspected
wrongdoing to any of
the three anticorruption
agencies.
$3
$30
Commission on Integrity
$4,033
Human
Rights
Immigration and
Displacement
$1,398
Allocates 17% of government revenues to KRG after
deducting non-ministry central government
expenditures and reconstruction costs
$3,959
$58
$222
Allocates
funding to
provinces
Central Criminal Court
Report
findings
Justice
$256
IGs report
directly to
relevant
ministers
$381
$5,888
$4,520
Interior
Defense
Inspectors General
Audit ministries and
investigate allegations
of fraud, waste, and abuse
Report
findings
Capital
Finance
Operating
$3
$56
Board of Supreme Audit
Iraq’s main audit agency
Millennium Challenge Corporation Scorecard
Ruling Justly
Political Rights
Civil Liberties
Control of Corruption
Government Effectiveness
Rule of Law
Voice and Accountability
(Freedom House)
(Freedom House)
(World Bank Institute)
(World Bank Institute)
(World Bank Institute)
(World Bank Institute)
Iraq: 11 (24%)
Iraq: 13 (6%)
Median: 20
Iraq: -0.94 (0%)
Median: 33
Median: 0
60
40
30
0
'04
'06
0
'08
'04
'06
Iraq: -1.00 (15%)
Median: 0
Median: 0
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-2.0
'08
Median: 0
1.0
40
20
Iraq: -1.51 (0%)
2.0
20
10
Iraq: -0.99 (0%)
'04
'06
-2.0
'08
'04
'06
-2.0
'08
Investing in People
'04
'06
-2.0
'08
Health Expenditures
Natural Resource Management
Regulatory Quality
Business Start-up
(World Health Org)
(World Health Org)
(CIESIN/YCELP)
(World Bank Institute)
(IFC)
Iraq: 2.32 (41%)
Iraq: 61.89 (23%)
Median: 93.5
Median: 2.81
Median: 79.64
100
15
100
80
12
75
9
60
6
40
20
3
'04
'06
0
'08
'04
'06
1.0
0.8
Current year’s
median score
0.6
Iraq’s score
-2.0
'09
0.4
0.2
'04
'06
0.0
'08
'05
'07
'09
Selected Economic Comparisons, Iraq vs. United States
Iraq
United States
Per capita income, per month
$150
$3,200
Police salary, per month
$360
$3,800
Teacher salary, per month
$700
$2,450 $3,900
Elected leader salary, per month (Iraq—Member of
Parliament; U.S.—Member of Congress; leadership
positions command higher salaries)
Wheat flour
(paid for by MOT)
is transported to
the Food and
Flour Agents
for distribution.
Food and Flour
Agents collect
the PDS items
from the
warehouse
or mill.
Food and Flour
Agents take the
coupons to a
warehouse or mill,
where they pay for
the rations and
receive an invoice.
Food and Flour Agents
collect coupons from
households.
Median score for
income group
0.0
'07
Iraq: 0.869 (6%)
1.0
-1.0
'05
Iraq’s score
Percentile ranking
within income group
2.0
25
Households collect PDS rations
from the Food and Flour Agents.
MOT notifies Food and
Flour Agents to collect
the rations for
distribution.
'08
Median: 0.96
50
0
'08
Iraq: -0.66 (24%)
Median: 0
Public Distribution System: A Flow Chart of Responsibility
Ministry of Trade (MOT)
announces composition
and quantity of food
basket for the month.
'06
Economic Freedom
Immunization Rates
Iraq: 65.5 (3%)
'04
$8,450 $14,500 $18,625
Household income, per month
$815
$5,150
Percentage of household expenditures spent on housing
(including utilities, fuel, furnishings, and supplies)
35%
34%
Percentage of household expenditures spent on food
36%
13%
Hours of power, daily
8
24
Price of 1 gallon of gas
$0.16
$2.82
Price of 1 pound of rice
$0.42 $0.55
$0.42 $0.64
$0.001
$0.12
Price per kWh of electricity from grid
Employment Status of Iraqis, by Age and Gender
Millions of People
Age
Female
Male
65+
60+
60+
60 to 64
55 to 59
50 to 54
40 to 59
40 to 59
45 to 49
40 to 44
30 to 39
30 to 39
35 to 39
30 to 34
20 to 29
25 to 29
20 to 29
20 to 24
1.5
1.0
0.5
Not in Labor Force
0
0.5
Employed
1.0
1.5
Unemployed
2.0
Public
Administration/
Military
Other/Not Specified
2.0
Professional
Services
0 to 4
Retail/
Wholesale/
Trade
5 to 9
Public Works/
Construction
Agriculture
10 to 14
Mining/
Manufacturing
15 to 19
15 to 19
Agriculture
Mining/
Manufacturing
Public Works/
Construction
Retail/
Wholesale/
Trade
Professional
Services
Public
Administration/
Military
Other/Not Specified
15 to 19