Part I Security Environment Surrounding Japan
India is surrounded by many countries and has long coastlines totaling 7,600 km. The country has the world’s second largest population of more than one billion following China and has great influence in the
South Asian region. Also, it has a geographic position that is significant in maritime traffic, connecting the Asia-Pacific region with the Middle
East and Europe. In particular, Andaman and Nicobar
Islands located at the east end of the country are in the proximity to the Straits of Malacca, and India is greatly expected to play an important role in maritime security.
India has multiple races, religions, languages, and cultures within it, but it has an administration elected through free and fair elections under the multi-party system and is the world’s largest democratic nation 102 . Also, India shares a lot with major developed countries including Japan in terms of fundamental values and systems, such as liberalism, democracy, and market economy.
India has been promoting economic liberalization and reform since the 1990s and maintaining high economic growth rates. Some estimate that the number of its middle-income group reaches 300 million. In recent years, the information technology (IT) industry has been showing a remarkable growth in India. Against the backdrop of these favorable economic tendencies, the country actively engages in multilateral diplomacy, thereby steadily increasing its presence in international society.
India, as its national security policies, lists the possession of military capabilities to protect the national interest and the minimum level deterrent against nuclear threats; response to various security challenges ranging from terrorism, low-intensity conflicts, to conventional wars and nuclear wars; and enhancement of international cooperation to deal with new threats such as terrorism and weapons of mass destruction.
India intends to maintain minimum credible nuclear deterrence while committing to no first use on nuclear weapons and maintaining a unilateral moratorium (temporary suspension) on nuclear tests that it announced immediately after the nuclear test conducted in 1998. In addition, in its nuclear doctrine released in January
2003, India expressed its commitment to continuing to control the export of nuclear weapons and missilerelated materials and technologies and participating in the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty negotiations, as well as to creating a nuclear-free world. On the other hand, the doctrine declares that India will retain the option of retaliating with nuclear weapons in the event of a major attack against India by biological or chemical weapons.
Indian Armed Forces include ground forces of 12 corps with approximately 1,100,000 personnel; naval forces of two fleets, totaling approximately 354,000 tons; and air forces of 19 combat air wings and others with roughly 990 combat aircraft. India currently possesses one aircraft carrier, and in addition to promoting the
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construction plan of one new domestic aircraft carrier, will introduce another aircraft carrier from Russia upon completion of repair work as explained later.
India is actively striving to strengthen bilateral relations with the United States, while the United States is also promoting the expansion of its involvement in India in line with the economic growth of India, thus leading to increasingly stronger interactive relationship in various fields.
The U.S.-India joint declaration, which was made when then Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee visited the
United States in November 2001, confirmed that qualitative improvement should be made for future bilateral relations. In January 2004, the two countries announced that they had agreed to expand mutual cooperation in the following three areas; civil nuclear activities, space programs, and high-technology trade, aiming to form strategic partnership between the two countries. In July 2005, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visited the United States and made a joint statement with U.S. President George W. Bush that the relationship between the two countries would transform into a global partnership, through which they will cooperate in the field of space exploration, nuclear energy for civilian applications, and military and non-military technologies.
Subsequently in March 2006, President Bush, in turn, visited India for the first time in six years as a president of the United States 103 , and agreed with Prime Minister Singh to strategically strengthen bilateral relations.
In the security field, in June 2005, then Indian Defense Minister Pranab Mukherjee and then U.S. Defense
Secretary Donald Rumsfeld signed a 10-year military agreement the New Framework for the U.S.-India
Defense Relationship, based on the recognition that the U.S.-India defense relationship is an important pillar in the mutually beneficial relations between the two countries, which are changing over times. Furthermore, in
March 2006, the U.S. Department of Defense announced its intention to enhance cooperation with India in security issues, including maritime security 104 .
India and the United States have made active military exchanges, including joint military exercises. The
Indian and the U.S. navies carried out the joint naval exercise Malabar 06 off the coast of Goa in the Arabian
Sea from October through November 2006. The exercise was participated in by one amphibious assault ship of the U.S. Navy, and Indian army soldiers and U.S. marines carried out the amphibious landing exercise, thus making the joint exercise with the United States increasingly enhanced both in quality and quantity 105 .
As for cooperation in civilian nuclear activities, U.S. President George W. Bush changed its previous policy prohibiting cooperation with the countries not participating in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of
Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and agreed in July 2005 with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on cooperation in civilian nuclear activities with India, which had conducted nuclear tests without participating in the NPT.
Subsequently, in March 2006, U.S. President Bush agreed with Indian Prime Minister Singh on the implementation of cooperation in civilian nuclear activities. Furthermore, in December 2006, the U.S. Senate and Congress passed the U.S.-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act, which enables cooperation in civilian nuclear activities with India, where comprehensive safeguards by the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) were not applied. The act was signed by President Bush and enacted in the same month.
Meanwhile, coordination with the guidelines of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and others are required for international cooperation in civilian nuclear activities with India.
India has been trying to improve relations with China through mutual visits by leaders despite the national border issues between them and concerns over Chinese nuclear weapons and missiles and modernization of
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Part I Security Environment Surrounding Japan military forces including naval ones. In June 2003, then Indian Prime Minister Vajpayee visited China for the first time in the past ten years as an Indian prime minister and signed with Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao the Declaration on Principles for Relations and Comprehensive Cooperation 106 between the Republic of India and the People’s Republic of China. In November 2003, Indian and Chinese navies carried out joint naval exercise off the coast of Shanghai for the first time. Furthermore, when Chinese Minister of National Defense
Cao Gangchuan visited India in March 2004, the two countries agreed on the expansion of military exchanges.
Subsequently in December 2004, based on this agreement, a visit to China by an Indian Chief of Army Staff was made for the first time in approximately 10 years. Also in January 2005, a strategic dialogue was held for the first time by the two countries’ Vice Foreign Ministers. When Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao visited
India in April 2005, the two countries reached an agreement on establishing strategic and cooperative partnership for peace and prosperity 107 . In November 2006, Chinese President Hu Jintao visited India for the first time in the past ten years as a Chinese president to meet with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
Both agreed that the development of strategic and cooperative partnership between China and India is commonly recognized as an important issue and announced a joint declaration that includes holding regular summit meetings 108 .
India has traditionally been on friendly terms with Russia and maintains close relations with the country through mutual visits made annually by their leaders. In October 2000, the two countries signed the Declaration of Strategic Partnership to further strengthen their bilateral relations, and have been promoting acquisition of T-
90 tanks by India from Russia and joint development of supersonic cruise missile 109 . In January 2007, Russian
President Vladimir Putin visited India and both leaders announced a joint statement as well as signed agreements, including the one for constructing nuclear power plants and the intergovernmental agreement on the peaceful use of the Global Navigation Satellite System GLONASS 110 .
Russia is a major provider of weapons for India 111 . In January 2004, then Russian Defense Minister Ivanov visited India and concluded a contract to sell a retired aircraft carrier, the Admiral Gorshkov, to India. Also in
January 2007, then Russian Defense Minister Ivanov visited India and conducted a consultation meeting on military technology cooperation, joint exercises, and other issues 112 .
Also, the two countries have conducted joint military exercises since 2003 113 .
Since the latter half of the 1990s, India has been emphasizing relations with East Asian countries including
ASEAN members. In October 2003, it signed the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC).
114
India, which has been historically on good terms with Japan, has been deepening cooperation with Japan in economy, security, and various other fields based on a global partnership.
In May 2006, then India’s Defense Minister Mukherjee visited Japan and announced a joint statement with the Director General on the DFAA Nukaga. In this statement, the two countries agreed to deepen talks and cooperation in the field on defense cooperation.
Pakistan, with approximately 150 million people, borders India, Iran, Afghanistan, and China, and is one of the most geopolitically important countries in Southwestern Asia. Currently, Pakistan’s attitude towards international fight against terrorism and nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction is attracting international attention.
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Pakistan, which has no nuclear umbrella, claims that maintaining nuclear deterrence against the nuclear threat posed by India is essential to ensure national security and self defense.
The Pakistan Armed Forces include ground forces of 9 corps with approximately 550,000 personnel; one naval fleet of about 45 warships, totaling approximately 81,000 tons; and air forces including 12 air combat wings with a total of roughly 370 combat aircraft. (See Fig. I-2-6-1)
Fig. I-2-6-1 Size of Indian and Pakistani Forces (approximate)
Pakistan
Approx. 550,000 troops
Approx. 46 vessels
Approx. 81,000 tons
Approx. 370 aircraft
India
Approx. 1,100,000 troops
Approx. 150 vessels
Approx. 354,000 tons
Approx. 990 aircraft
Legends
Ground forces (200,000 troops)
Naval vessels (100,000 tons)
Combat aircraft (200 aircraft)
Pakistan, while attaching importance to friendship and cooperation with Islamic countries, maintains close relations with China as a countermeasure against India 115 . Since the 9/11 attacks on the United States, Pakistan has been expressing its intention to join the U.S.-led fight against terrorism 116 . This cooperative attitude was highly appreciated by the international community, and the sanctions that had been imposed on Pakistan by the
United States and other countries due to Pakistan’s nuclear test in 1998 were lifted 117 . Pakistan strengthened military cooperation with the United States in the fight against terrorism. In March 2005, the United States decided to sell F-16 fighters to Pakistan, lifting its freeze on the sale that had been lasting for more than 20 years. Furthermore in March 2006, U.S. President Bush visited Pakistan and highly appreciated Pakistan’s support in the global fight against terrorism, and the two countries confirmed their policy to promote terrorismrelated information sharing 118 .
For the nuclear proliferation issue involving Pakistan, President Musharraf disclosed in February 2004 that some Pakistani scientists, including Doctor A.Q. Kahn, were involved in nuclear proliferation, though the president denied the Pakistani government’s involvement in any kind of proliferation activity 119 .
President Musharraf has been improving relations with India, including Kashmir issue, and also expressed his support for the U.S.-led antiterrorism measures and prevention of weapons of mass destruction. Islamic extremist groups both at home and abroad criticized president Musharraf’s policy, and in December 2003, there were two assassination attempts on the president 120 .
Achieving stability in Pakistan is crucial from the viewpoint of enhancing the international fight against terrorism, preventing proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and securing stability in South Asia.
India and Pakistan, which became independent from the former British India after the World War II, had three large armed conflicts over Kashmir territorial issue and others 121 .
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Part I Security Environment Surrounding Japan
In 1947, Indian and Pakistani forces clashed over Kashmir, which developed into a large armed conflict.
(This first war lasted until 1949.) After the second armed conflict (in 1965) and the third one (in 1971), the current Line of Control (LOC) was defined in 1972.
The territorial dispute over Kashmir has continued, while dialogues were resumed and suspended repeatedly, and it constitutes one of the root causes of confrontation between India and Pakistan. Military tension between the two countries sharply increased following the Kargil conflict in 1999 and an attack on the
Indian Parliament in 2001. The situation, however, was not further aggravated due to efforts by the international community, which was strongly concerned about the two countries, because both of them made their possession of nuclear capabilities clear. In February 2004, the two countries commenced a process of a composite dialog to normalize their relations, including those related to Kashmir issue. A certain degree of progress has been made so far, including the start of the operation in April 2005 of direct buses across the LOC in the Kashmir region 122 .
In October 2005, a major earthquake occurred in Pakistan, with its epicenter located near the LOC in
Kashmir. More than 73,000 people were killed by the earthquake in Pakistan and the country suffered devastating damage. Pakistan and India transported relief materials from India to Pakistan by air. Also, direct telephone call service was made available and five crossing points were opened on the LOC. The two governments thus implemented ground breaking measures in Kashmir following the earthquake.
Also, as part of its peace promoting measures, India withdrew some of its forces stationed in Kashmir in
November 2004 and it announced a step-by-step reduction of these forces (by 15,000 personnel in total) again in February 2006.
India and Pakistan had far different opinions on Kashmir and the solution of the issues was thought to be difficult. However, tension between the two countries is further mitigated, and whether they may solve the issue is attracting much attention from the international community.
The two countries are confronted with each other also in such fields as nuclear and ballistic missile development. Neither country is party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) or the
Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) 123 . In 1998, they conducted a series of nuclear tests, which drew criticism from the international community, including Japan 124 .
In more recent years, both countries have been actively promoting the development of ballistic missiles and cruise missiles that can carry nuclear warheads. India announced the deployment of Agni 2 intermediate range ballistic missiles to its ground forces in September 2003. The Agni 3 intermediate range ballistic missile was test-launched in April 2007, which was reportedly successful. Furthermore, it is reported that Brahmos supersonic cruise missiles, which were developed jointly with Russia, are now being deployed to naval warships.
Pakistan, on the other hand, first test-launched the Babur (Hataf VII) cruise missile in November 2005 125 . It also conducted the test-launched of the Shaheen 2 (Hataf VI) intermediate range ballistic missile in February
2007. Furthermore, in the exercise of the Army Strategic Force Command (ASFC), the Strategic Missile Group
(SMG) consecutively conducted the first exercise launch of missiles it owns, such as the Ghauri intermediate range ballistic missile (Hataf V) and the Shaheen 1 (Hataf V) intermediate range ballistic missile from
November through December in 2006 126 . This seems to demonstrate that Pakistan is steadily deploying ballistic missile to forces.
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