Section 3. Situation of Iraq 1. Security Situation after the Establishment of New Iraqi Government Even after the establishment of a new Iraqi government in May 2006, the public security situation in Iraq is as challenging as before. Attacks against multinational forces and Iraqi security units are common, particularly in the “Sunni Triangle”29 and parts of northern Iraq, and sectarian conflicts have been severe. Especially, the February 2006 bombing of a Shiite mosque in Samarra in central Iraq triggered fierce sectarian violence, resulting in a rapid increase in Iraqi civilian victims, particularly in Baghdad, and creating major problems for the country’s security and stability. In the backdrop to this violence are radical Islamists, who apparently are continuing terrorist attacks both to create the impression in Iraq and abroad that the Iraqi government is unable to govern and the multinational forces incapable of maintaining order, and to create political chaos by fueling sectarian and ethnic disputes. This gives rise to a “chain of retaliation,” with sects that have been attacked calling on private militia organizations to exact revenge. Attacks against multinational forces, Iraqi security forces and civilians continue in Iraq, by a variety of means such as improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs). The influence of nearby countries has also been noted with regard to the security situation in Iraq. In particular, it has been reported that Iran has been providing weapons and financial support to militia organizations within Iraq, and that the remnant of supporters of the Hussein regime and Islamic radicals are pouring into Iraq from Syria30. 2. Security and Other Measures by Iraqi Security Forces and Multinational Forces With the increasingly fierce sectarian rivalry described above producing a deteriorating security situation in Baghdad and elsewhere and becoming a serious obstacle to political and economic progress, President Bush implemented a review of the United States’ Iraq policy. After discussions with the Iraqi government, he announced a new strategy with regard to Iraq in January 2007. Positing the restoration of order in Baghdad as the key to success, this new policy seeks to tackle head-on the issue of ensuring the security of local residents, as opposed to the focus of the previous policy on transferring the responsibility for security to the Iraqis. As the strengthening of the Iraqi security forces’ capabilities, which is the premise of the strategy, may not prove sufficient on its own, the United States decided to send more than 20,000 additional combat troops. The dispatch of an additional carrier strike group to the Middle East and the deployment of Patriot air defense systems were among other steps taken to bolster the security of Iraq and protect U.S. interests in the Middle East31. Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki then initiated a new security policy for Baghdad in February 2007 that called for approximately 90,000 Iraqi security and U.S. forces to be dispatched to Baghdad to crack down on all illegal behavior regardless of affiliation. Transfers of responsibility for security from multinational forces to Iraqi authorities are proceeding in the provinces in which the capabilities of Iraqi security forces have been enhanced and local conditions have — 16 — Part I Security Environment Surrounding Japan improved. Thus far, authority for security has been transferred in seven provinces, including southeastern Iraq’s Muthanna Province, in which the GSDF was engaged in humanitarian and reconstruction assistance activities. (See Fig. I-1-3-1) Fig. I-1-3-1 Countries Dispatching Forces to Iraq and Primary Areas of Operation ROK (Erbil) 26 countries (including the US, the UK and Japan) have forces (about 162,000 personnel) in Iraq About 12,000 personnel deployed from countries other than US (As of April 2007) Dahuk Erbil Ninawa Provinces in which security responsibility has been transferred to Iraqi authorities Jul 2006 Muthanna Sep 2006 Dhi Qar Dec 2006 Najaf Apr 2007 Maysan May 2007 Erbil Sulaymaniyah Dahuk Anbar Tamim Sulaymaniyah Salah ad Din Diyala Baghdad Babil Wasit Karbala US-led multinational division members Australia (Baghdad and other areas) Albania (Niniwa) Estonia (Baghdad) Macedonia (near Baghdad) Bulgaria (near Baghdad) Georgia (Baghdad) Azerbaijan (Karbara) Fiji (Baghdad) Bosnia-Herzegovina (Anbar) Mongolia (Babil) Latvia (Babil) Armenia (Babil) Rumania (Babil) Quadisiyah Maysan Najaf Dhi Qar Basrah Muthanna UK-led multinational division members Denmark (Basrah) Rumania (Dhi Qar, Basrah) Australia Czech Republic Poland-led multinational division members Rumania (Quadisiyah) Kazakhstan (Wasit) El Salvador (Wasit) Ukraine As of May 2007, military units from 26 countries, including approximately 150,000 U.S. troops, are deployed within Iraq and are given responsibility for security and reconstruction assistance, but changing circumstances have led to changes in the scale of some of the multinational forces. For instance, the United Kingdom, citing progress in handing over the responsibility for security in southern Iraq, announced in February 2007 that it would be reducing the British contingent in Iraq from 7,100 to about 5,500 within a few months. The basic idea underlying the activities of the multinational forces is that the presence of such forces is necessary until Iraqi security forces are able to maintain security on their own. Consequently, the multinational forces assert that they cannot set out in advance a deadline for terminating their activities, even while insisting that their involvement in Iraq is not unlimited. They say that more time will be needed until the Iraqi security forces are able to maintain order and stability in Iraq on their own. 3. Efforts by the Iraqi Government and International Community toward Reconstruction Breakthroughs in the situation in Iraq will require not only security measures but also political efforts by the Iraqi government on its own initiative to promote national reconciliation. Prime Minister Maliki in June 2006 devised a national reconciliation plan, and held a national reconciliation conference in Baghdad in December. Thus Iraq is continuing efforts to build a democratic and stable state on the basis of national reconciliation. — 17 — Many countries have contributed to Iraqi reconstruction through the dispatch of troops and bilateral and multilateral assistance programs. Since 2005, the United States and others have deployed Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs) made up of military and civilian personnel to provide support to local governments in Iraq, and the United States decided in the previously mentioned new Iraq strategy to double the number of PRTs in giving greater emphasis to both military and non-military cooperation. The United Nations has been coordinating reconstruction, development and humanitarian assistance through the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI). In the mean time, the Iraq Compact was launched in May 2007 by an international framework co-chaired by the Iraqi government and the United Nations to build a new partnership between the Iraqi government and the international community. In this Iraq Compact, the Iraqi government has presented its policy objectives for the next five years in the areas of governance, security, and economic recovery, and the international community has promised assistance for such efforts by the Iraqi government. — 18 —