The Mid-Atlantic Equity Center (MAEC) at The George Washington University Center for Equity and Excellence in Education (GW-CEEE) http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu/ & The Everyone Graduates Center at the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) Center of Social Organization of Schools http://www.every1graduates.org/ West Virginia Student Success Summit August 1-3, 2011 Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 2 Gail Sunderman Mid-Atlantic Equity Center gsunderman@ceee.gwu.edu 703-528-3588 Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 3 Who is dropping out of school? Are some groups of students more likely to drop out? Can we predict who is likely to drop out early enough to change the path the student is on? Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 4 What is the graduation rate in your district? How does your district graduation rate compare to that of West Virginia? To the nation? Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 5 What you can do as a part of a school team to change the dropout rate? What you can do to keep students on track to graduate? Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 6 Why adopt a framework? What are the Early Warning Indicators? What does it take to set up an Early Warning System? Is there a model for building an intervention system based on Early Warning Indicators? Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 7 1. Gain the knowledge needed to share with colleagues in the implementation of an integrated model for keeping students on track to graduation. analyze procedures, policies, and protocols and to make systemic changes in divisions and schools. 2. Use what is learned to Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 8 Thought Insight Question Puzzlement Discovery Observation Concern Epiphany Conclusion Finding Perception Solution Breakthrough Reflection Speculation Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 9 Steps in Keeping Students on Track Understand dropout situation, influences on student success, & student disengagement Evaluate effectiveness Develop Early Warning System Apply interventions for each dropout indicator at multiple levels Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 10 Steps in Keeping Students on Track Understand dropout situation, influences on student success, & student disengagement Evaluate effectiveness Develop Early Warning System Apply interventions for each dropout indicator at multiple levels Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 11 1. Dropping out is a personal decision that has nothing to do with how schools operate. 2. Students drop out because they are bored, not because they struggle academically. 3. Dropping out is a predictable event, the result of a gradual process. 4. If all students were academically prepared to handle high school coursework, the dropout problem would disappear. Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 12 Take a look at Page 3. Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 13 National, State, & District Average Graduation Rates 80 Percentage Graduated 70 60 Nation 50 Delaware 40 Milford 30 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: EPE Research Center (2009). http://www.edweek.org/ew/dc/2009/gradrate_trend.html Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 14 National & WV Graduation Rates, 1998 – 2008 80% 75% 70% 65% Nation 60% West Virginia 55% 50% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: EPE Research Center (2010). http://www.edweek.org/ew/dc/2009/gradrate_trend.html Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 15 Source: Schott Foundation for Public Education. (2010). Yes we can: The Schott 50 state report on public education and black males. Retrieved from http://www.blackboysreport.org/bbreport.pdf Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 16 Students who drop out affect everyone. Dropouts from the class of 2008 will cost West Virginia almost $1.7 billion in lost wages over their lifetimes. 1 M dropouts will cost the U.S. approximately $319 billion in lost income over their lifetimes. If the national graduation rate for males increased by 5%, the U.S. would save $7.7 billion a year. Sources: Alliance for Education, http://www.all4ed.org, and Better High Schools, http://www.betterhighschools.com Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 17 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 21 24 31 45 49 50 Drop out Graduate Source: EPE Research Center, published in Diplomas Count 2010. Graduation by the numbers: Putting data to work for student success. Education Week 29 (34), p.24. Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 18 WV Graduation Profile - Class of 2007 By Gender PERCENT Male 68.1 Female 75.1 By Race and Ethnicity American Indian / Alaska Native ∞ Asian / Pacific Islander ∞ Hispanic 52.8 Black (not Hispanic) 63.9 White (not Hispanic) 71.5 ∞ Value not reported because of insufficient data for reliable estimate. Source: EPE Research Center (2010). Graduation by the Numbers. Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 19 WV Graduation Profile - Class of 2007 By Gender and Race & Ethnicity PERCENT MALE American Indian / Alaska Naive ± Asian / Pacific Islander ± Hispanic 49.9 Black (not Hispanic) 61.5 White (not Hispanic) 68.2 FEMALE American Indian / Alaska Naive ± Asian / Pacific Islander ± Hispanic 44.6 Black (not Hispanic) 63.6 White (not Hispanic) 75.0 ± Value not reported because of insufficient data for reliable estimate. Source: EPE Research Center (2010). Graduation by the Numbers. Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 20 Understanding Disproportionality: The over or under-representation of a target subgroup in a program, in outcomes, or on other educational indicators Number of graduating students in a racial subgroup divided by Total number of enrolled students in that racial subgroup Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 21 Does disproportionality matter in my school? Number of graduating students in a racial subgroup divided by Total number of enrolled students in that racial subgroup Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 22 On-time Graduation Rates: Class of 2008 First Time 9th Grade Cohort 2004-05 State Cameron High School Davis Village High School Parsons Valley High School All students 82.1 62.6 84.4 63.7 Female 85.0 63.3 86.4 73.6 Male 79.2 61.8 82.6 54. Black 73.9 59.8 < 57.3 Hispanic 71.5 25. < 60. White 85.9 71.1 83.3 77.9 SWD* 81.8 66.7 < 50. Low SES 70.6 57.7 76.9 59.7 LEP 69.2 < < < Migrant Homeless 75.4 60.2 < < < < < < < indicates fewer than 10 students in the reporting category *SWD = students with disabilities Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 23 Graduation Data by School Disaggregated by Racial Subgroup CAMERON Number of enrolled students by subgroup All students 210 Percent of enrolled students by subgroup 100% PARSONS VALLEY Number of on-time graduates in each subgroup Percent of on-time graduates by subgroup Number of enrolled students Percent of enrolled students by subgroup Number of on-time graduates Percent of on-time graduates by subgroup 139 66% 244 100% 156 64% 112 50.7% 67 60% 157 64.3% 90 57% 12 5.4% 3 25% 10 4.1% 6 60% 86 43.9% 69 80% 77 31.6% 60 78% Black Hispanic White Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 24 How will you explain disproportionality to your colleagues. . . so that it isn’t just another term? so that it helps clarify the dropout problem? Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 25 Steps in Keeping Students on Track Understand dropout situation, influences on student success, & student disengagement Evaluate effectiveness Develop Early Warning System Apply interventions for each dropout indicator at multiple levels Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 26 Have we as school leaders encouraged students to stay on track to graduation? Are we engineers of success? Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 27 We’ve tried programs. A patchwork of separate, non-integrated programs is generally not an effective approach. All issues need to be addressed simultaneously in a systematic, integrated way. Integration is key! Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 28 Student Disengagement ➲ Individual Factors The ABCs for Disengagement ➲ Institutional Factors Organizations, Relationships, and Practices Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 29 How do we know if a student is disengaging from school? In the classroom? From the school? With individuals? Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 30 What reasons do students later give for having dropped out of school? Rank them 1 – 5, 5 being most important reason. Friends not interested in school Missed too many days, couldn’t catch up Too much freedom, not enough rules in life Uninteresting classes Was failing school Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 31 What reasons do students later give for having dropped out of school? 35% Was failing school Too much freedom, not enough rules in life 38% 42% Friends not interested in school 43% Missed too many days Uninteresting classes 47% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Source: Silent Epidemic Report (2006) Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 32 Indicators of Student Engagement B Mid-Atlantic Equity Center C http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 33 Highly predictive – more so than socioeconomic and demographic data Helps school staff focus on what they CAN influence Uses data already collected by schools Alerts educators early, allowing time for intervention Indicates not only the presence of dropout risk for students, but also the level of their risk Encourages support from stakeholders Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 34 CCSR - What Matters for Staying on Track, July 2007 Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 35 Graduation Outcomes for Students With One or More Suspensions in 6th Grade Philadelphia 16% 4% Graduates on time 81% Mid-Atlantic Equity Center Graduates after one extra year Does not Graduate http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 36 Course Failures Chicago Public Schools Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 37 Course Failures Percentage students graduating on time Colorado Schools 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 District Chicago1 District 2 District 3 District 54 0 1 2 3 4 Number of Failing Semester Grades in 9th Grade Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 38 Page 13 Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 39 Getting off the Track to Graduation Internal/External Influences Disengagement from School Poor Attendance, Behavior, and Course Performance Dropping Out of School Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 40 An early warning system: Tracks longitudinal data for each student Systematically identifies students who show signs they are at risk of dropping out Matches students to interventions Builds in data entry points at key times during the school year Monitors student progress Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 41 Longitudinal data for each student Threshold levels Predictor accuracy http://every1graduates.org/ToolsAndModels/EarlyWarningSystems.html Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 42 Early Warning Indicator Attendance Behavior Course Failure Mid-Atlantic Equity Center Grade Level Middle School High School Less than 80 percent attendance is a strong predictor of dropping out and requires intensive intervention Missing more than two days of school per month (less than 90 percent attendance) should prompt targeted intervention (even though many students with this level of attendance manage to graduate in urban districts) An unsatisfactory behavior grade or Suspension in ninth grade suspension Failing mathematics Any two semester course failures in ninth grade (particularly in core academic courses required for graduation) Failing reading or language arts Any one semester failure probably should prompt intervention and, ideally, a pattern of course performance likely to lead to a failing report card grade would prompt intervention from the classroom teacher to prevent failure and offtrack credit status http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 43 National High School Center Early Warning Tool v. 2.0 State-designed tool District-designed early warning system using Excel/Access/other databases Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 44 National High School Center Early Warning Tool v.2.0 Systematically identify students who are showing signs they are at risk of dropping out Match students to interventions and monitor students’ progress in those interventions Build in data entry points at key times during the school year www.betterhighschools.org Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 45 How will you explain the ABCs of an Early Warning System? At which grade level should an Early Warning System be implemented? Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 46 Based on the Early Warning Indicators Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 47 Steps in Keeping Students on Track Understand dropout situation, influences on student success, & student disengagement Evaluate effectiveness Develop Early Warning System Apply interventions for each dropout indicator at multiple levels Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 48 Putting Data to Work “The power of early-warning indicators lies in the willingness and capacity of school leaders and educators to transform actionable data into strategic decision making that leads to improved student outcomes.” Lyndsay Pinkus (2008). Using early warning data to improve graduation rates: Closing cracks in the education system, Alliance for Excellent Education Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 49 THREE-TIERED PREVENTION MODEL FOR SCHOOLS Intensive interventions Targeted interventions for struggling students Comprehensive School Reform (preventing problem behaviors for majority of students) Early Warning System Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 50 Tiered Intervention Model SCHOOL-WIDE - Comprehensive access to rigorous courses - Clear and enforced policies -Culture of high expectations Intensive - Parent/community involvement Targeted - Ninth-grade transition strategies Comprehensive 70 - 80% - Access to counseling services - Personalized graduation planning and frequent monitoring - Career planning and development Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 51 SMALL GROUP - Extra-help courses - Daily attendance check-ins Intensive - Behavior checklists - Transition programs Targeted 10 - 20% Comprehensive Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 52 Intensive INDIVIDUALS Specialized internal or external services 5 - 10% Targeted Comprehensive Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 53 3. Intensive 2. Targeted 1. Comprehensive Prevention for All Students Type of Intervention School-wide (all students) Attendance Course Performance • Respond to • Teach, model, • Use research- every absence • Create culture which says attending every day matters • Establish incentives for good attendance • Track data at teacher team level expect good behavior based instructional programs Keeping Middle Grade Students on the Graduation Track Mid-Atlantic Equity Center Behavior • Establish positive social incentives and give recognition for good behavior • Have an • Provide classroom implementation support to enable engaging pedagogies advisory period Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver 2007 http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 54 3. Intensive 2. Targeted 1. Comprehensive Interventions for Targeted Group Type of Intervention Targeted (10% - 20% of students) Attendance Course Performance • Require quick • Involve behavior • Create extra daily check by adult if 2 or more unexcused absences in a month team if 2 or more office referrals occur • Have an attendance team investigate and problem-solve Mid-Atlantic Equity Center Behavior • Have students carry a behavior checklist from class to class daily • Assign a mentor help courses (in place of electives) which link tightly to core curriculum and fill in knowledge gaps • Assign students to smaller classes if failure is rooted in socio-emotional issues http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 55 3. Intensive 2. Targeted 1. Comprehensive Interventions for Targeted Students Attendance Behavior Type of Intervention Performance • Provide sustained Intensive (5% -10% of students) Course • Conduct an in- one-on-one attention and problem solving depth behavioral assessment – why is the student • Bring in appropriate misbehaving? social service and/or community supports • Require behavior contracts with family involvement • Provide one-on-one tutoring • Bring in appropriate social service and/or community supports Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 56 How much staff time and commitment? Team Meetings When Early warning data are first available To verify student information, new students After 20 or 30 days After each grading period More often as needed End of school year Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 57 Implementing an Early Warning System (EWS) 7-Step Process 1 Establish roles and responsibilities 7 Evaluate and refine EWS process 2 Use EWS to identify “off -track” students 6 Monitor students and interventions Source: National High School Center (2010), Early Warning System Implementation Guide . Mid-Atlantic Equity Center 3 Analyze EWS data 5 Assign and provide intervention s 4 Review EWS data http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 58 The District Role Communicate the importance of the EWS. Support the full implementation of the EWS, including technology and data entry. Engage with school teams. Provide professional development to team members for using the tool and working with their colleagues and external team members throughout the EWS process. Monitor school efforts to use EWS throughout the school year and over the course of multiple school years. This includes identifying promising practices and areas of need in schools and the district. Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 59 Steps in Keeping Students on Track Understand dropout situation, influences on student success, & student disengagement Evaluate effectiveness Develop Early Warning System Apply interventions for each dropout indicator at multiple levels Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 60 Evaluation • What aspects of your intervention system do you want to evaluate? • How will you evaluate them? • How often will you need to evaluate? • What will you do with the resulting data? • How will these data translate into changes? • How can evaluation results be used to leverage resources? • Are there benefits to both an internal and external lens for our evaluation? Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 61 Middle School Improvement Early Warning Indicator* Number of students off-path Number of these students still offpath in March 2009 Percent reduction in the number of students off-path Failed math 65 25 62 percent Failed literacy Less than 80 percent attendance rate Three or more negative behavior comments on report card 86 22 74 percent 38 23 39 percent 409 225 38 percent Beyond the Indicators, pg.29 Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 62 Cameron High School Graduation Plan Factors 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Assist students who enter high school (middle school) with poor academic skills Improve instructional content and practice Create a personalized and orderly learning environment Provide work-based learning opportunities and prepare students for college and the workplace Stimulate change in high schools Create a personalized and orderly learning environment Improve reading comprehension levels, especially for previously underperforming subgroups Increase the pass rate for geometry on the state test Increase graduation rates for all students and decrease equity gaps Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 63 Franklin City High School Graduation Improvement Plan Rigorous and Relevant Instruction Personalized Learning Environment and Instructional Process Data Systems Adult Advocates Programs to Improve Students’ Classroom Behavior and Social Skills Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 64 We know who drops out and why. We know what helps kids stay on track to graduation. We implement proven interventions and reforms and we are accountable for results. Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 65 The BIG Questions: We care about the dropout rate. We care about disproportionality. We are willing to be held accountable for doing all we can do to keep all students track to graduate. We create a shared understanding of Early Warning Systems and help build support in our division and school. Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 66 Resources Everyone Graduates Center The Everyone Graduates Center at the Johns Hopkins University works to develop and disseminate strategies for ensuring that all students graduate from high school prepared for college, career, and civic life. http://www.every1graduates.org/ MAEC Beyond the Indicators This webinar and paper provides an integrated framework that schools and districts can use to build a foundation to prevent students from dropping out. http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu/node/330 California Dropout Research Project The California Dropout Research Project (CDRP) synthesizes existing research and produces new research to inform policymakers, educators and the general public about the nature of the dropout crisis in California and helps the state develop a meaningful policy agenda to address the problem. http://cdrp.ucsb.edu/ Consortium on Chicago School Research The Consortium on Chicago School Research (CCSR) at the University of Chicago is a leader in conducting research on dropout indicators. http://ccsr.uchicago.edu/content/index.php IES Dropout Practice Guide Geared toward educators, administrators, and policymakers, this guide provides recommendations that focus on reducing high school dropout rates. http://ies.ed.gov/ncee/wwc/pdf/practiceguides/dp_pg_090308.pdf Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 67 Resources for State, District, and School Data State, district, and school websites Graduation rate by state and district: www.edweek.org/apps/maps Educational levels by state: http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats /education/educational_attainment.html State, district, and school databases Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 68 Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 69 Sources GRAD NATION: http://www.americaspromise.org/gradnation NATIONAL HIGH SCHOOL CENTER EARLY WARNING TOOL v2.0, Technical Manual, www.betterhighschools.org EARLY WARNING SYSTEM IMPLEMENTATION GUIDE, National High School Center, www.betterhighschools.org DROPOUT PREVENTION (2008). IES Practice Guide, What Works Clearinghouse, U. S. Department of Education AMERICA’S PROMISE: www.americaspromise.org EVERYONE GRADUATES CENTER: www.every1graduates.org Alliance for Education: http://www.all4ed.org/aboutthecrisis CIVIC ENTERPRISES: www.civicenterprises.net {M. Janosz, I. Archambault, J. Morizot, and L. S. Pagani, “School Engagement Trajectories and Their Differential Predictive Relations to Dropout,” Journal of Social Issues 64, no. 1 (2008): 21–40, http://www.blackwellsynergy.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1540-4560.2008.00546.x (accessed on March 3, 2008). Quoted in: Pinkus, L. (2008). Using Early Warning Data to Improve Graduation Rates: Closing cracks in the education system. Alliance for Excellent Education Policy Brief, August 2008. Using Early Warning Data to Improve Graduation Rates: Closing cracks in the education system. Alliance for Excellent Education Policy Brief, August 2008. Graduation Promise Act of 2007 Unfulfilled Promise: The Dimensions and Characteristics of Philadelphia’s Dropout Crisis. Ruth Curran Neild and Robert Balfanz. (2006). Philadelphia: The Philadelphia Youth Network. At http://every1graduates.org/ToolsAndModels/EarlyWarningSystems.html Photo source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f1/Train_coupling.jpg Photo source: http://www.translationdirectory.com/images_articles/wikipedia/railroads/An_AAR_Type_E_railroad_car_coupler.jpg -- M. Janosz, I. Archambault, J. Morizot, and L. S. Pagani, “School Engagement Trajectories and Their Differential Predictive Relations to Dropout,” Journal of Social Issues 64, no. 1 (2008) quoted in Using Early Warning Data… http://www.centerforpubliceducation.org/site/c.lvIXIiN0JwE/b.5057379/k.8752/Dropouts_Myths_v_Realities.html Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 70 While the contents of this presentation were developed under a grant from the U.S. Department of Education, they do not necessarily represent the policy of the U.S. Department of Education, nor should their endorsement by the federal government be assumed. Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 71 For a copy of these slides Email gsunderman@ceee.gwu.edu for additional information. As part of its report to the federal government, we need your feedback from this presentation. Please complete the evaluation form before you leave. Mid-Atlantic Equity Center http://maec.ceee.gwu.edu 72