1^0 DEWEY HD28 .M41A % Development Projects Cost Dynamics Ali N. Mashayekhi WP#3919 June 1996 System Dynamics Group Alfred P. Sloan School of Management Massachusetts Institute of Technology 50 Memorial Drive Cambridge, MA 02139 MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TF'^wMOLOGY SEP 16 1996 LIBRARIES D-4634 Development Projects Cost Dynamics DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS COST DYNAMICS By: Ali N. Mashayekhi MIT E60- 357, System Dynamics Group, 30 Memorial Dr., Camb. MA, 02139 June 1996 Abstract Cost and time overruns have been a in many common characteristic of development projects countries. This paper presents a theory of cost and time overruns based cost structure. The on project cost of a development project consists of base cost and progress cost. Base cost keeps a project ready for physical progress. Progress cost creates real physical progress in the project. This cost structure has an important inherent dynamic characteristic An with implications for the efficiency and effectiveness of project management. between annual budget and ongoing projects ineffectiveness unrelated to the quality of results in an increasing inefficiencies management in individual projects. conditions, the policy governing the starting rate of the important. The theoretical framework presented causes of time and cost overruns in imbalance in this new projects paper can explain Under such becomes very at least part of the terms of imbalance between development projects and development budget. The paper also suggests some policy recommendations for new and starting projects. Key words: Project management, development projects, time overruns, cost overruns Introduction In the evolution of economic growth theory, gross national investment has remained an important determinant of the growth of national production capacity However, the efficiency and effectiveness of not been discussed in the literature. The the investment processes at a macro 1.2,3.4,5 level has efficiency and effectiveness of such a process is very important to the real contribution of investment to the growth of production capacity. Low efficiency in the investment process unit of gross investment made. Low would result in less production capacity for each effectiveness of the investment process results in a long construction period and increases the capital cost of investment projects. The efficiency and effectiveness of the investment process becomes very important growth of national production capacity when governmental investment projects constitutes a major part of national investment, as countries. is the case in in to the development many developing Development Projects Cost Dynamics Development projects are investment projects, undertaken by the governments of developing countries to construct infrastructure and production capacities to enhance and facilitate the development processes. cost and time overrun in their costs Many developing countries have been experiencing development projects^. For example, and construction time of development projects are usually much larger than planned. Figure 1 shows which projects are completed according to the and long construction time region of the (1,1) indicates a position in planned cost and time. All of the development projects completed during 1989 and 1990 in project in Iran are located in the scatter, indicating low efficiency and effectiveness underestimation and inflation can contribute to the cost overrun. But not of the cost overrun shown in Figure sale price index in Iran rose from 100 1 can be attributed in 1980, to 390 to these in 1989, However, government projects usually enjoyed 2. for their foreign procurements. two factors. and 530 average price index for a uniform capital expenditure from 1980 in The whole 1990 \ The 1990 was around a to a fixed official exchange rate For the domestic purchase of goods and services, development projects usually had access at high cost management. Initial cost factor of initially the ratio of actual cost and construction time to planned values for development projects completed during 1989 and 1990. Point all completion in Iran, to goods at prices set officially by the government a level lower than market prices. Therefore, inflation for the development project was lower than what the general price index shows, and certainly inflation alone can not explain the whole cost overrun. Because different prices difficult to determine how much consultants. There are is exist to usually done based on two reasons some some extent, depend on the unrealistic. is want to total cost second, the credibility of the consultant would be under question be is not a major factor detailed feasibility studies by that the consultant should not cost of the project. First, the consulting fees to it of the cost overrun was due to intlation. The underestimation of cost, which might because cost estimation that existed simultaneously in Iran, if underestimate the of the project and the estimate turned out Development Projects Cost Dynamics S H Q tn z z < -1 a. z o S a: Z O H UJ S > O Z) 0^ q; [U LiJ < D H U < u. O o < Development Projects Cost Dynamics provide a better understanding and management of the overall dynamics of a single projects •2. 13 and the impact of client-contractor relationship on project delay and cost Although the quality of project management factor causing long construction times is very important, and high completion costs. ^'^. not the only is it There are factors outside of project managers' control that contribute to such low performance. One such factor is a lack of balance between the development budget and financial resources required for development projects. In developing countries, the need available resources are low. There sectoral officials to start is always pressure from new development projects. for development is high and citizens, regional officials These pressures lead and an imbalance to between available resources and the number of projects consuming those resources. In Iran, for example, according Budget Organization in 1991, the to the information budget allocated obtained from the Plan and was to the construction of a hospital about 30 percent of what was required to complete the ongoing projects on time with a four years construction period. was about 22 In 1987, the allocated budget to water projects percent of the budget required to complete those projects within an average construction time of five years '5. This paper shows that this kind of imbalance between available and required resources has a profound impact on the performance of development projects. cost model is developed and presented perfect project in the next section. management and without any development projects are affected by management project requires a sound number of projects and Model 1: this The model shows inflation, the cost imbalance. project even with and completion time of Any improvement macro management of that A in the balance development between total available resources in the development budget. The Basic Dynamics of Project Cost Structure The annual and progress cost. cost of each project can be divided into two cost categories: base cost Base cost consists of all cost elements that should be paid to keep a project ready for physical progress. Base cost includes such items as the salary and overhead costs of the project manager and his staff, the cost of keeping contractors and consultants related to the project, and the cost of having construction machinery, equipment, and construction materials on that, when site. Progress co^r consists of those cost elements paid in addition to the base cost, can create real physical progress. Progress cost includes such items as construction materials, construction labor, and the operating cost of construction equipment. Each project can be finished cost has been spent to complete all when a certain amount of progress the necessary activities in the project. Base cost has Development Projects Cost Dynamics priority over progress cost, because base cost should be paid to create a condition in which progress cost can be effective. Figure 2 shows a causal loop diagram of a basic dynamic cost structure model. The model consists of a another as shown by an arrow connecting is commonly used is '^^ '^. positive or reinforcing loop in the System Dynamics '6- ^^- '^- ^^: and or ^-^>' variable on two variables with the following convention — =>—^>-0 -T->~0 when x^O dx — -^0 when x>Q <0 X —^^y => ^ X The dependency of one dt or dy The dt variables of the basic P= Number model are: of ongoing development projects Unit project is at different stage and measured in terms of unit project. defined as a project that requires a certain amount of progress cost, called u, to be completed within normal construction time. S = new Starting rate of projects in each year number of ongoing development C= Completion rate of measured in unit projects per year that increases the projects. development projects each year measured in in unit projects per year that decreases the number of ongoing development projects. BB = Required annual base budget to pay base cost of development projects measured PB = Progress budget available to pay for progress cost D= Total development budget U = Progress cost required to complete a unit project b = Annual base cost of a in A causal The equations ''' m-^^ in at a normal construction time $/project. unit project in $/project/year. ^P- --C Drr*PB^ 2: in $/year. Pyear. u Figure in $/year. for the S BB-e^b loop diagram of basic dynamic cost structure model. model presented (1) (2, in Figure 2 are the following: Development Projects Cost Dynamics PB{t)=D{t)-BB{t) (3^ BB{t)=bP{t) Equations to 1 (4) 4 lead to the following tlrst order differential equation: " " (5) is 20; solution to Equation 5 The general -( / h r -('-r) Uit) = P{0)*e" +\e" P(t) —)dT (5(0 (6) In a simple case when the Starting Rate, constants, then the general solution + uS PiO)b /'(0=— -^ reduced is -D +—b b From equations — P(0) b =S C{t) and 2, 3, 4, 7, the S-D +u to: D-uS I— -r ^" 7 and Development Budget, D, are 5, (7) completion rate, C, becomes: -> e" (8) As Equation 7 shows, D-uS .^ e r, Startmg Rate • ,. if the the • is number of projects has an unstable equilibrium value of D-P(0)b Sc = b J Under ,, . ^. this unstable equilibrium, the u Completion Rate that the C becomes equal Base Budget to the Starting Rate BB=P.b and Progress Budget S and the number of project PB = Cu= Su add up is such to total Development Budget D. b If S becomes larger than equilibrium value such the coefficient of ^" its Equation 7 becomes positive, >- , then Number of Projects in P increases b to infinity and the Completion Rate C decreases to and then, mathematically, to negative values. This characteristic of the solution indicates that the completion cost of projects could go to infinity and the efficiency of investment goes to zero. Under such conditions, capital investment would not lead to any increase in production capacity. If S becomes b smaller than its negative, then equilibrium value such that the coefficient of ^" Number of Projects P in Equation 7 becomes declines exponentially and the Completion Rate Development Projects Cost Dynamics increases to infinity. This unrealistic behavior, as will be discussed and corrected later, is the result of a simplistic assumption of constant progress cost for a unit project. Figures 3a and 3b when starting rate by one is unit at year results from the behavior of the model increased or decreased by a step function from equilibrium value of 5 1. P(0}=20, b=.l, D=7, show some numerical The parameter values S=5 at equilibrium. for the behavior shown in Figure 3 are: u=l, Development Projects Cost Dynamics project assumed is to be constant as budget per unit of project When u. rises, the u remains constant, as the annual progress completion time shortens and could approach zero while the progress cost of a unit project does not change. This assumption will be relaxed in the next section in order to Model 2: modify the equation Variable Progress Cost for Unit Project when In reality, the completion time shortens to values less than a completion time, then coordination of different become more to get the for the completion rate. activities and also overtime and costly and the progress cost of each unit projects should rise. completion time close to zero, the unit cost 4. In the the exponential decay behavior. shown new model, two The new shift works At the extreme, should approach infinity. In order to capture this characteristic of the progress cost, the basic model 2 as sketched in Figure normal is modified to create Model negative loops are added that will control variables and connections relative to Figure 2 are in bold. np — — ».PBR *»-u Figure 4: Model 2 with a variable unit project progress cost. In the new model, the following two equa.lons are added of the unit cost: uit) = f{PBR{t)) = a + (5iPBR{t)) A PBR=£mm np (9) (10) In which: PBR = Progress Budget Ratio (Dimensionless) np = Normal Annual (X, P, and X Progress Budget per Project (SA'ear/Project) are constants to capture the vT-jnhjiify Development Projects Cost Dynamics Equations 9 and 10 indicate that when progress budget per project value, then PBR=I larger than normal, and " ~ PB/P >~ ^ However, when PBR > then 1, complete a unit project becomes more than PB > o= => PBR —> °o progress budget per project . np and and « —> oo its which means is at its u> a+fi that normal becomes means progress cost to normal value. At the extreme when it is impossible to complete a project in zero time. The new model, consisting of Equations nonlinear first order differential equation. It 1 may be to 4 and Equations 9 and 10, model values set for Figure 3: |3=.l, is .25, complete a unit project is Figure 5 shows is 1 and the normal annual progress budget imply a third assumption, which assumed to be parameter X=3, np=.25. The two assumptions that the necessary progress cost to complete a project for a project, np, 21. for the following parameter values in addition to those a=.9, a solved for specific parameter values with computer simulation using a simulation software such as Vensim the behavior of the is 4 years. is that the normal time to Development Projects Cost Dynamics progress cost of a unit project rises and does not allow the completion rate to rise to infinity. Although Model 2 improved the basic model behavior as not is shown Figure in completion rate to In the real As when still realistic to face a the starting rate increases drop by a step function. Such a rise, causes the number of projects to go to infinity and the 5, unrealistically drop exponentially. world the starting rate is not disconnected from the state of the system. the starting rate responds to the condition of the development projects in the system, neither the number of projects nor completion time Model 2 modified to consider such forces acting on the starting Model is 3: The will go to infinity. In the next section, rate. Endogenous Starting Rate starting rate of who manage a new projects is the most important development budget. On one hand, decision makers are usually under Due foster sectoral or regional development. low standard of the hand, when budget become rate be decided by those rate to pressure from different national or regional organizations to start As in the starting rate, its to new projects in order to population growth and a desire to improve living, these pressures are high in developing countries. availability for existing projects drops On the other and completion time of projects too long, social, political, and economic pressures build up to decrease the starting of new projects so that existing projects can be completed before will be discussed later, it new ones are started. turns out that the policy that governs the starting rate decision has a profound impact on the performance of development projects regardless of the quality of management system and at the project level. The starting rate that influences the performance of the being influenced by that performance, becomes an important endogenous is variable in the model. Model the feedback 3, sketched in Figure from the state 6, is developed to capture the starting rate of the system on the starting rate. In Model 3, process and two new negative feedback loops are added to Model 2 that control the exponential growth of the number of projects and completion time. Figure 4 are in bold. starting rate is availability The The new variables and connections in Figure 6 relative to starting rate in Figure 6 based on a policy under which the influenced by an exogenous desired starting rate as well as by budget and completion time. The starting such a policy. This policy exercised, as is was the case is rate decision does not have to be made under one possible alternative which might be more broadly in Iran according to 10 my observation and experience, and will be — Development Projects Cost Dynamics examined here. After the consequences of such a policy is discussed, then an alternative policy formulation will be examined. np ^^u -PBR ^ Figure 6: Model 3 with Equations of the new model consist of endogenous equations 1 ES starting rate. to 4, 9, 10, and the following equations: S{t)^ ES{t)-EB(t)- ET(t) EB(t) = MPRit)) d{PR{t)) " / /, (•) (11) > (>,/,(0) = fr = 0;/,"'^(l) = I (12) = {PBR{t)-PR{t))/T, d^ (13) ET{t) = f,{PT{t)) /,(•) <0;/,(.v < ^ d{PT{t)) 1) = fr - l;/2(-) = /a™" = (^4) = {CT{t)-PT{t))/r, dt CTit) = P{t)IC(t) (16) In which: CT = Completion Time Ratio, ET = Effect of Completion Time on Starting Rate, Tn = Normal Completion Time, Pi? = Perceived Budget Ratio, 11 Development Projects Cost Dynamics PT = Perceived Completion r Time Ratio, T and ' The - are time constants starting rate of new projects in Equation 1 is 1 equal to the exogenous starting ES, multiplied by the effect of budget availability, EB, and the effect of completion rate, time, ET. The effect of budget availability, EB, is set as an increasing function of the Perceived Budget Ration, PR, in Equation 12. The effect of budget availability be bounded between zero and one. to make one, When the starting rate zero. EB reaches its maximum effect of completion time at When the Perceived to on the starting rate, rate. When makes ET will Budget Ratio, PBR, ET, is set Equation in be bounded between zero and one. less than one, zero, is is EB will be zero to one or larger than one and does not have any impact on the starting Perceived Completion Time Ratio, PT, assumed budget availability assumed is When rate. The as an decreasing function of the 14. Effect of completion time is Time Ratio is Perceived Completion be one to indicate that completion time does not affect the starting completion time ratio approaches infinity, EB reaches its minimum zero and at the starting rate equal to zero. Equations 13 and 15 represent an exponential adaptive process to update the perceived information about budget availability and completion time ratio of the projects. T T and - are time constants for the two exponential averaging processes. Equation 16 1 calculates the completion time ratio, CT. current completion time by dividing the denominator of Equation 16 The is overall performance of the system The Completion Time is to Ratio, CT, when cost, the is to T^. by completion time completion measured by to the denominator of the equation, Equation that is is completion cost The numerator unit progress cost, given in by the completion the ratios of calculated in Equation 16. progress budget availability, normal and equal projects rate. The completion time normal or standard completion time and completion to calculate the ratio of the Normal completion project number of the Normal Completion Time. and completion cost of projects added The numerator of Equation 16 estimates PBA, is 9, plus is cost. The following equation is normal completion cost, CR. is the completion cost of a unit one and completion time of the project the actual completion cost, which is equal to annual base cost for a unit project multiplied approximated by dividing the number of projects rate. uj^jr^b^iPitmrn a + (5 + bT„ 12 to the Development Projects Cost Dynamics ,.. The new model to the is a set of third order non-linear differential equations. In addition parameter values presented for Model 2, the following numerical values for the parameters were assumed to solve the model through simulation: T, = 2, Tt = 2,r„ = 4, all in Graph Lookup years. The two functional relationship as shown below: new Development Projects Cost Dynamics equilibrium, pressures from low budget availability and long completion time force the system to lower the starting settles in a new rate to become equal equilibrium. But the new to the equilibrium achieved under such pressures characterized by low efficiency and low effectiveness. 30 6 25 ProjecLs Projecis/Year Projecis completion rate and the system is Development Projects Cost Dynamics 25 6 Projects 12 S/Year 15 ProjecLs Projects/Yeiir ProjectsA'ear 4 $/Year 1 Development Projects Cost Dynamics calculate the completion time ratio as a performance index. According to the desired number of projects, DP, development budget, in D(t), is policy, a calculated by Equation 18 based on the available annual and the required annual budget for a unit project to normal completion time with the required progress budget available, or be completed PBR= 1 Then . in equal to the completion rate plus an adjustment term to Equation 17, the starting rate is set adjust the number of projects toward of new the desired number of projects by an adjustment time Tj. DP{t)S{t)=C(t)+- Pit) ^' (17) D(t)' DP{t)= ^ *.(«-% ^« (18) In which: DP(t) = Desired ^3 = Time The new model model can be reduced which p = Number of Projects to Desired Number following simple differential equation: -I^-^^^-pP+^DlO 1 and (Years) main equations of the a first order differential equation. Six is 17 = ,.g. T 1 The . Tj r, Pit) of Projects (Projects) t^Tnb + a+p Tj In Adjust to to the P(f)=-— P(r)+— Number = PiO)-e-" +1^-""-^' T^-b + a+p general solution to equation 19 is: DiT)dT (20) Suppose the system starts from an equilibrium in which P(0) = time -. If at '• the P development budget drops by a step function from then the solution for P(f) As Equation P after t^ its initial equilibrium, Dq , to D^- n, will be: = 2LA_iZ_iL(l_g-p('-'.)) P P 21 shows, based on the new forr>/, policy, as (21) f —> <», P(/) = -i 2 which is P equal to the desired number of projects for the new new level of development budget. At the equilibrium level, budget will be available to finish the projects normal cost. number of During the transition from project is initial equilibrium to the at a normal time with a new equilibrium when the not yet adjusted to the desired level, the completion time and 16 . Development Projects Cost Dynamics completion cost will be more than normal. The completion time ratio and the completion cost ratio can be calculated using Equations 2, 16, and 17. The behavior of the model with the new simulation for particular parameter values. Figure when starting rate policy 1 1 shows can be examined by the behavior of the the new the development budget. The parameter values for the behavior shown same starting rate policy as those for the Figure 9 These parameter values make 10 $/Year 1.6 Ratio 7 $/Year the initial equilibrium is disturbed by a step reduction in and the value of adjustment time, ^3 P~ and ^ ~ ^ ^° model with ^ is in set Figure 1 1 are the equal to 2 years. Development Projects Cost Dynamics Summary and The Conclusion investment, is the important determinant of growth of production capacity. In a system of development projects where limited resources support ongoing new effectiveness of the investment process to create beyond the level of project managers. decision. The available common starting rate decision The projects, the efficiency capacity is starting rate of the influenced by decisions new project one such is resources and has important dynamic implications for the efficiency and investment projects as presented in Investment project cost is The dynamic arises from the cost structure of the this paper. divided into two categories: progress cost and base cost. cost consists of those cost elements that should be paid to keep the project ready for real physical progress. The progress cost consists of those cost elements that should be A paid to create physical progress in the projects that are ready for such progress. was defined project completed and is at a normal completion time. Each project can be measured projects under construction is reduced by the rate of completion. The starting management decision The cost unit of amount of progress cost as a project that requires a certain The number of project. and changes the balance between the number of projects and effectiveness of the investment process. The base amount of efficiency and effectiveness of capital investment, in addition to the in terms of a unit increased by starting rate be to new on the new project is projects the major in the system. model shows dynamic implications projects which are not related showed that to the quality of an imbalance between the for the efficiency management common at the project level. resource and the the system of projects into a trap of inefficiency and effectiveness of The paper number of projects moves and ineffectiveness if the starting rate is decided based on exogenous pressure and in reaction to budget availability and completion time. Under such projects would be more than normal and efficiency and effectiveness of project declines. to a a decision rule, completion cost and completion time of number One that The paper shows is that when the starting rate adjusts the development the investment number of projects based on available budget, the inefficiency trap can be avoided. management of development budgets in developing countries. Development budgets represent investments made by governments in different area of application of this model development projects accelerate is the to create infrastructure economic growth and development. Due and production capacity to population between the developed and underdeveloped world, there pressure to foster development by starting and regions. The pressure to start new is order to growth and the large gap usually a lot of socio-political new development projects in different sectors projects creates an imbalance 18 in between the Development Projects Cost Dynamics development budget and the number of development Such an imbalance decreases projects. the efficiency of limited investment resources available to the countries. To government of those increase the efficiency of their scarce investment resources, governments that are responsible for development budgets should make sure that the number of ongoing projects are in balance with available budget. The application of the result and the projects, common resource is is not Umited to the not limited to the budget. applicable to any situation in which an organization development projects and a common management of development resource is has base cost and. progress cost in terms of that is engaged The in a results of this paper are number of simultaneous required by the projects, and each project common resource. The common resource could be management time in managing different projects, programmers' time to create different software, or researchers' time to pursue different research projects. The common responsibility for creating balance resources is above the level of a single project manager. In the case of a development budget, the body the responsibility of between the number of projects and available keeping that prepares and approves the the common development budget has this balance. The model presented here can be expanded stages of development. total to divide Such disaggregation can be useful ongoing projects into different in discussing the allocation of resource between different stages of projects during the transition from an unbalanced and inefficient system to a balanced and efficient one. References: 1. Evsey D. Domar (1946) Capital Expansion, Rate of Growth, and Employment, Econometrica 14, 137- 147. 2. Robert M. Solow (1956) Economics, 70, 3. 1 A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth, Quarterly Journal of (February), 65-94. Robert M. Solow (1994) Perspective on Growth Theory, Journal of Economic Perspective, Volume Number 8, Winter 1994, 45-54. 1, M. Romer (1994) The Origins of Endogenous Growth, Economic Perspectives, Volume 5. Paul 8, Number 6. The World Bank (1995) Report No. 15084, Annual Review of Evaluation Results 1994, Washington 1, D.C. 20433, Journal of Winter 1994, 3-22. USA. Bank of Annual Report, 7. Central 8. O.P. Kharbanda, E.A. 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Luenberger (1979) Introduction to 21 Dynamic Systems, Theory, Models, and Application, Wiley. Vensim (1995) Ventana Simulation Environment, Ventana Systems, Belmont, MA 02178 '^^'^21 USA. U60 20 Inc., 149 Waverly Street, Date Due MIT LIBRARIES ,„ iUiiiJIli 3 9080 00939 9509