Briefing Document
Kevin Quigley, Secretary
TOPIC:
CONTACT:
Impact for WorkFirst Participants of Reaching the ‘Tipping Point’
David Mancuso, PhD
3/3/2015
DATE
SUMMARY. This document summarizes an analysis of the impact of reaching the ‘Tipping Point’—one
year of college level credit plus a certificate or credential—on self-sufficiency outcomes among
WorkFirst clients. WorkFirst parents were included in the analysis if they were on TANF for at least one
month in Academic Year (AY) 2010 or 2011 and in the prior year. Outcomes were observed for those
who achieved the Tipping Point in the community college system relative to a matched comparison
group who had never engaged in the state’s community college system (see Table 2 for key baseline
measures). We note that clients engage in different WorkFirst activities based on their individual needs,
skills and circumstances, not all of which can be controlled for using the available administrative data. A
degree of selection bias still may be present after matching on observable baseline characteristics, and
the true impact of achieving the Tipping Point may be somewhat less than estimated here.
KEY FINDINGS. Compared to their statistically matched peers and controlling for prior employment
history, in the second year follow-up, WorkFirst parents who reached the Tipping Point: 1) were more
likely to be employed (69 percent compared to 46 percent), 2) had annual earnings that were, on
average, $6,265 higher, and 3) spent, on average, 0.28 fewer months on TANF. All three of these
findings were statistically significant.
EMPLOYMENT RATE
AVERAGE ANNUAL EARNINGS (includes $0 earnings)
75%
Community College
Enrollment
50%
Unmatched
Control Group
46%
40%
$15,000
Community College
Enrollment
$12,144
Tipping Point Group
$10,000
Matched
Control Group
Unmatched Control Group
$5,880
$4,725
$5,000
EMPLOYMENT
HISTORY
5
Matched
Control Group
Tipping Point Group
25%
0%
69%
4
3
ACADEMIC YEARS
BASELINE MEASURES
2
FOLLOW-UP
MEASURES
EMPLOYMENT
HISTORY
$0
1
INDEX + 1
AY 2010 OR 2011
+2
5
4
BASELINE
3
2
ACADEMIC YEARS
FOLLOW-UP
MEASURES
 1 INDEX + 1 + 2
AY 2010 OR 2011
NOTE: The Tipping Point group attained one year of college credit and a certificate or credential in the index year. However, many took longer
than a year to achieve the Tipping Point. The grey area represents the minimum period of college enrollment for the Tipping Point group.
Impact of Reaching the Tipping Point
Difference Associated with Reaching the Tipping Point
Matched Control Group Mean
Tipping Point Group Mean (regression-adjusted)
Average annual earnings, 1 year follow-up
Average annual earnings, 2 years follow-up
Months on TANF, 1 year follow-up
Months on TANF, 2 years follow-up
$10,035
$12,144
3.3
1.5
$5,233
$5,880
3.3
1.8
+$4,802
+$6,265
—0.02
—0.28
Percent Change Associated with Achieving the Tipping Point
Matched Control Group Percent
Tipping Point Group Percent (regression-adjusted)
Employment, 1 year follow-up
Employment, 2 years follow-up
66%
69%
46%
46%
45%
49%
P-VALUE
<0.0001
<0.0001
0.92
0.05
P-VALUE
<0.0001
<0.0001
Baseline Characteristics of Tipping Point and Control Groups, Pre- and Post-Matching
Female
White only, non-Hispanic
Hispanic
African American
American Indian
Asian/Pacific Islander
Age 18 - 24
Age 25 - 34
Age 35 - 44
Age 45 - 54
Age 55+
Less than high school (according to ACES)
High school graduate (according to ACES)
Some post-secondary education (according to ACES)
Associate’s degree or above (according to ACES)
Average number of children
Youngest child under 1 year-old
Youngest child age 1 - 2
Youngest child age 3 - 5
Youngest child age 6 - 11
Youngest child age 12+
Two parent household
County unemployment rate
County urbanicity: rural
County urbanicity: high density urban
County urbanicity: med density urban
County urbanicity: low density urban
Homeless/unsheltered in prior 24 months
Homeless without housing in prior 24 months
Family violence identified in CE
Financial management issues identified in CE
Criminal background issue identified in CE
School challenge identified in CE
Employability challenge identified in CE
Pregnant or caring for others identified in CE
Chronic illness risk score at or above 1
Alcohol/drug treatment need in prior 24 months
Mental health need in prior 24 months
Ever incarcerated in Dept. of Corrections facility
Arrested in prior 24 months
Conviction in prior 24 months
rd
Average months on TANF, 3 year prior to index
Substance abuse treatment (WF activity), prior 3 years
Family violence resolution (WF activity), prior 3 years
Mental health services (WF activity), prior 3 years
DSHS Briefing Document
Tipping
Point
1:1 Matched
Control Group
Unmatched
Control Group
TOTAL = 1,202
TOTAL = 1,202
TOTAL = 52,391
79%
57%
11%
20%
5%
7%
19%
48%
25%
6%
1%
11%
59%
28%
3%
1.88
11%
33%
24%
20%
11%
25%
9.7%
0%
50%
31%
19%
17%
6%
2%
2%
1%
3%
7%
2%
41%
14%
43%
3%
11%
17%
2.9
7%
8%
11%
79%
56%
10%
19%
5%
8%
19%
48%
25%
6%
1%
9%
61%
27%
2%
1.87
12%
34%
24%
19%
11%
27%
9.7%
1%
48%
32%
20%
15%
7%
2%
2%
2%
3%
6%
2%
43%
14%
42%
3%
10%
16%
2.9
7%
8%
11%
77%
54%
14%
14%
9%
9%
28%
38%
22%
9%
1%
32%
53%
12%
2%
1.81
22%
25%
16%
18%
14%
30%
9.8%
1%
39%
36%
24%
21%
12%
3%
4%
3%
6%
13%
6%
51%
21%
42%
3%
21%
25%
2.5
7%
6%
14%
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