SHEEP SECTOR
Review & Outlook
Declan Fennell
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
Growing
the success
CHIEF
EXECUTIVE
BORD BIA
of Irish28food
& horticulture
JANUARY
2009
10 January 2014
Irish Sheep Meat Production
2013 v’s 2012
TOTAL 2,431,283
2012
LAMB
(Hogget & Spring)
2,122,996
EWES &
RAMS
308,287
+
66k
2013
LAMB
(Hogget & Spring)
2,241,346
EWES &
RAMS
374,654
TOTAL 2,616,000
Source: DAFM
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Irish Sheep Meat Production
2013 v’s 2012
TOTAL 2,431,283
2012
LAMB
(Hogget & Spring)
2,122,996
EWES &
RAMS
308,287
+
66k
+118k
(+5%)
2013
LAMB
(Hogget & Spring)
2,241,346
+66k
(+22%)
EWES &
RAMS
374,654
TOTAL 2,616,000
Source: DAFM
+184,000 head | 8% increase in Sheep Meat Throughput in 2013
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Record throughput levels .. when did it happen?
HOGGET
SEASON
NEW
SEASON
LAMBS
772,000 head* | +164,000 | +26%
1,844,000 head* | + 20,000 | + 1%
* Including ewes & rams
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Source: DAFM
Average lamb carcase weight 19.51kg
Back 0.65kg/head
21.5
21
20.5
21.1
kg
20
19.5
19.8
kg
19
19.8
kg
19.2
kg
18.5
2011
2012
2013
19.5
kg
19.5
kg
18
Jan - Apr
May - Aug
Sept - Dec
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
2013 Sheep Meat Production up 3%
2.47m
2.61m
2.17m
2011
2012
Growing the success
of Irish
48,100
t food & horticulture
53,700 t
2013
55,000 t
Source: DAFM
Whilst production throughputs reached record highs,
the National Flock declined by 1.8%
Why?
7
6.4
Total Flock
- Difficult Autumn ‘12
& Spring ‘13
- Culling of ewes up in Q1
Breeding Flock
Number of Sheep (Millions)
6
5.17
4.7
5
4
5.08
4.8
3.5
3
2.5
2.66
2.64
2
1
0
2005
2010
2011
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
2012
2013
Source: CSO
June Livestock Survey 2013
Throughput of Hogget Supplies
Period: January to April
2014
600,000
– –650,000
(forecast)
570,000
– 620,000
(estimate)
600,000
650,000
2013
2012
2011
2010
770,682
608,007
546,342
561,921
Source: DAFM & Bord Bia estimates
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Average Farmgate Prices
2013 v’s 2012
HOGGETS
650
NEW SEASON LAMB
Average €4.74c/kg
Average €4.46c/kg
600
10c
Cent/KG
22c
550
2012
2013
500
450
400
350
Jan
Feb
Mar
April
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source: DAFM
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Irish Farmgate Prices relative to UK & New Zealand
600
500
400
Ireland
Great Britain
New Zealand
300
200
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Source: Bord Bia
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
2013 Export Performance
SWEDEN
3,100t (+30%)
VALUE:
€220m
[+4%]
UK
8,900t
VOLUME:
44,000t
(-29%)
[+3%]
BELGIUM
2,900t (+38%)
DESTINATIONS:
+30 markets
GERMANY
2,850t (+24%)
SWITZERLAND Hong Kong
FRANCE
1,200t
720t (+40%)
(+100%)
17,9000t (-4.5%)
Tunisia
500t
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Source’; GTIS/Bord Bia
Live Sheep Exports
Libya
21,443 head
*New market in 2013 –
Shipments to Libya concentrated
around Ramadan
Germany
16,137 head (+75%)
Live exports stood
at almost 70,000 head (end Nov ‘13)
Italy
11,108 head
(+70%)
Up 31,000 (+55%) on 2012
UK
1,720 head (-33%)
France
10,964 head
(+28%)
Source: DAFM
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
EU Live Sheep Export
Period: Jan – August 2013
21,400
31,000
781,000
1.2 million
live sheep exported
295,000
9,000
[-500%]
LEBANON
55,000 [+22%]
JORDAN
848,000
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
[+105%]
234,000 [-20%]
Source: Eurostat
Impact of 2013 Drought
New Zealand Exports
Lamb crop: 25 million (- 4.8%)
Export:
301,000 tonnes (-3.8%)
250000
200000
Tonnage
98%
150000
79%
86%
70%
100000
72%
50000
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: GTIS
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
New Zealand Sheep Meat Exports to China
160000
Unit Price (€/t)
140000
Tonnage
120000
100000
€2,800
€2,910
2012
2013
€2,480
€2,220
80000
€1,650
60000
40000
20000
0
2009
2010
2011
Source: GTIS
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
2014 Outlook - Modest growth in National Flock
7
6.4
Total Flock
Breeding Flock
Why?
6
5.17
4.7
Number of Sheep (Millions)
5
4
5.08
5.15
Ewes in excellent
condition
Confidence up
3.5
3
2.5
4.8
2
1
0
2005
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 (f)
Source: CSO & Bord Bia estimates
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
IN SUMMARY
7
6.4
Total Flock
1. 6Production + 8% (2.6m head) and Processing
+3% (54,000tonne)
5.17
5
2. EXPORTS
4
Breeding Flock
5.08
5.15
4.7
driving on value up +4% (€220m) & volume up +3% (44,000t)
3.5
3. Market DIVERSIFICATION is delivering value growth
3
4.
2.5
4.8
2.7
2.64
Tighter HOGGET supplies in 2014 (circa 600,000 - 650,000)
2
5.
Modest GROWTH in the national flock (5.15m head)
1
0
Easter 20 April | Ramadan 28 July | EID 4 Oct
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture