UK RETAIL SEMINAR
Wednesday, 11th February 2015
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
Growing
the success
CHIEF
EXECUTIVE
BORD BIA
of Irish food
& horticulture
28 JANUARY
2009
UK RETAIL SEMINAR
Wednesday, 11th February 2015
Michelle Butler
Bord Bia
Welcome
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Agenda
9.30am - Welcome, Michelle Butler, Manager Bord Bia London Office.
9.45am - UK retail market overview 2014, Ed Garner, Kantar Worldpanel.
10.15am - UK Consumer insights & current trends, Grace Binchy, Bord Bia.
10.45am - Managing Currency Opportunities & Risks - AIB
11.00am - Refreshments
11.15am - How to distribute to the UK , Dean Attwell, Managing Director Oakland-International,
11.45am - Sainsbury's & how to supply successfully - Michael Hodgson, Head of Central Buying, Sainsbury’s
Supermarkets Ltd.
12.15pm - How to position your business to take advantage of export opportunities – Joe Manning, Senior Buyer, Tesco
Ireland
12.45pm - Supplying the UK retail market - An Irish suppliers’ perspective - Clonakilty Black Pudding Co.
13.15pm - Questions & Answers
13.30pm - Light lunch & networking opportunity.
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
UK Retail & Consumer Outlook
Edward Garner - Communications Director
Aldi Lidl
Everyone else
Waitrose M&S
UK Retail & Consumer Outlook
Edward Garner - Communications Director
The Agenda
>
– External pressures
– The Squeeze
– The Effect
– Home Delivery
– Seeking Differentiation
– A role for Ethical Claims
– Bargain Stores
Global Food Price Indices
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Cereals Price Index
Food Price Index, UN FAO
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Food and Drink as a Proportion of UK Household Expenditure %
25
20
15
10
5
0
Source: ONS Series ABQI / ABZV
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Food and Drink as a Proportion of UK Household Expenditure %
25
Housing & Utilities
20
15
10
5
0
Source: ONS Series ABQI / ABZV
10%
21/Sep/08
16/Nov/08
11/Jan/09
08/Mar/09
03/May/09
28/Jun/09
23/Aug/09
18/Oct/09
13/Dec/09
07/Feb/10
04/Apr/10
30/May/10
25/Jul/10
19/Sep/10
14/Nov/10
09/Jan/11
06/Mar/11
01/May/11
26/Jun/11
21/Aug/11
16/Oct/11
11/Dec/11
05/Feb/12
01/Apr/12
27/May/12
22/Jul/12
16/Sep/12
11/Nov/12
06/Jan/13
03/Mar/13
28/Apr/13
23/Jun/13
18/Aug/13
13/Oct/13
08/Dec/13
02/Feb/14
30/Mar/14
25/May/14
20/Jul/14
14/Sep/14
09/Nov/14
04/Jan/15
Grocery Market Growth v. Inflation
Recession
Recovery?
Squeezed Household Budgets + Falling Inflation
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
12 we growth (Grocers RST)
12 we inflation
-40
12 w/e periods - Total Grocery
04-Jan-15
07-Dec-14
09-Nov-14
12-Oct-14
14-Sep-14
17-Aug-14
20-Jul-14
22-Jun-14
25-May-14
27-Apr-14
30-Mar-14
02-Mar-14
02-Feb-14
05-Jan-14
08-Dec-13
10-Nov-13
13-Oct-13
15-Sep-13
18-Aug-13
21-Jul-13
23-Jun-13
26-May-13
28-Apr-13
31-Mar-13
03-Mar-13
03-Feb-13
06-Jan-13
09-Dec-12
11-Nov-12
14-Oct-12
16-Sep-12
19-Aug-12
22-Jul-12
24-Jun-12
27-May-12
29-Apr-12
01-Apr-12
04-Mar-12
05-Feb-12
Value Own-Label Year-on-Year £% Changes - Big 4
60
50
40
30
20
10
Sainsbury's
Tesco
0
Asda
Morrisons
-10
-20
-30
The Agenda
– External pressures
>
– The Squeeze
– The Effect
– Home Delivery
– Seeking Differentiation
– A role for Ethical Claims
– Bargain Stores
Annual Till Roll Totals Expenditure Trends
Aldi
30
Lidl
19
Waitrose
6
Total Grocers
1
Iceland
1
Asda
0
Sainsbury's
-1
The Co-operative
-1
Independents
-2
Tesco
-3
Morrisons
-3
52 w/e Jan 04 2015 y/y % Change
Till Roll Annual Growth Rates
20
15
Waitrose Aldi Lidl
10
5
0
Big 4
-5
12 w/e Periods
Discounters
Threat…
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
Share (Expenditure)
Long-Term Share of Till Roll Grocers
5
4
3
2
1
0
03 Apr 11
0
Net New/Lost
Repeat
Total
04 Jan 15
07 Dec 14
09 Nov 14
12 Oct 14
14 Sep 14
17 Aug 14
20 Jul 14
22 Jun 14
25 May 14
27 Apr 14
30 Mar 14
02 Mar 14
02 Feb 14
05 Jan 14
08 Dec 13
10 Nov 13
13 Oct 13
15 Sep 13
18 Aug 13
21 Jul 13
23 Jun 13
26 May 13
28 Apr 13
31 Mar 13
03 Mar 13
03 Feb 13
06 Jan 13
09 Dec 12
11 Nov 12
14 Oct 12
16 Sep 12
19 Aug 12
22 Jul 12
24 Jun 12
27 May 12
29 Apr 12
01 Apr 12
04 Mar 12
05 Feb 12
08 Jan 12
11 Dec 11
13 Nov 11
16 Oct 11
18 Sep 11
21 Aug 11
24 Jul 11
26 Jun 11
29 May 11
01 May 11
Actual Contribution (000,000s)
350
Aldi - Net New/Lost & Repeat Buyers - Contribution to Change
300
250
200
150
100
50
03 Apr 11
0
Net New/Lost
Repeat
Total
04 Jan 15
07 Dec 14
09 Nov 14
12 Oct 14
14 Sep 14
17 Aug 14
20 Jul 14
22 Jun 14
25 May 14
27 Apr 14
30 Mar 14
02 Mar 14
02 Feb 14
05 Jan 14
08 Dec 13
10 Nov 13
13 Oct 13
15 Sep 13
18 Aug 13
21 Jul 13
23 Jun 13
26 May 13
28 Apr 13
31 Mar 13
03 Mar 13
03 Feb 13
06 Jan 13
09 Dec 12
11 Nov 12
14 Oct 12
16 Sep 12
19 Aug 12
22 Jul 12
24 Jun 12
27 May 12
29 Apr 12
01 Apr 12
04 Mar 12
05 Feb 12
08 Jan 12
11 Dec 11
13 Nov 11
16 Oct 11
18 Sep 11
21 Aug 11
24 Jul 11
26 Jun 11
29 May 11
01 May 11
Actual Contribution (000,000s)
200
Lidl - Net New/Lost & Repeat Buyers - Contribution to Change
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
04-Jan-15
07-Dec-14
09-Nov-14
12-Oct-14
14-Sep-14
17-Aug-14
20-Jul-14
22-Jun-14
25-May-14
27-Apr-14
30-Mar-14
02-Mar-14
02-Feb-14
05-Jan-14
08-Dec-13
10-Nov-13
13-Oct-13
15-Sep-13
18-Aug-13
21-Jul-13
23-Jun-13
26-May-13
28-Apr-13
31-Mar-13
03-Mar-13
03-Feb-13
06-Jan-13
09-Dec-12
11-Nov-12
14-Oct-12
16-Sep-12
19-Aug-12
22-Jul-12
24-Jun-12
27-May-12
29-Apr-12
01-Apr-12
04-Mar-12
05-Feb-12
Average 4-weekly spend (£)
Retailer
Spend
Trip (Basket
Trends
Spend
per
Visitper
(Basket
Size) Size)
Trends
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
Trading Indices - Aldi
Frozen Poultry+Game
Frozen Fish
Fruit+Veg+Salads
Packet Breakfast
Fresh Poultry+Game
Biscuits
Fresh Meat
Canned Goods
Sweet Home Cooking
Ambient Bakery Products
Frozen Confectionery
Take Home Savouries
52 w/e Jan 04 2015
229
152
129
128
125
120
117
111
109
107
106
106
Trading Indices - Lidl
Fruit+Veg+Salads
Fresh Poultry+Game
Fresh Meat
Frozen Poultry+Game
Sweet Home Cooking
Frozen Fish
Frozen Confectionery
Pickle+Tbl Sce+Condiment
Canned Goods
Frozen Meat
Packet Breakfast
Fresh Fish
52 w/e Jan 04 2015
144
137
134
133
130
123
122
115
115
112
111
108
Year-on-Year Expenditure Trends - % change
Aldi
Fresh+Chilled
35.7
Toiletries
31.5
TOTAL GROCERIES
28.0
Household
23.8
Frozen
23.3
Ambient Groceries
23.0
52 w/e 04 Jan 15
Alcohol
19.2
Year-on-Year Expenditure Trends - & change
Lidl
Fresh+Chilled
28.2
TOTAL GROCERIES
19.3
Alcohol
14.8
Frozen
14.4
Ambient Groceries
Toiletries
12.1
9.7
52 w/e 04 Jan 15
Household
8.6
TheImportance
Importance
Promotions
Retailer
The
ofof
Promotions
byby
Retailer
% Outlet Turnover by Promotional Type
0
15
3
0
14
0
0
14 15
0
17
0
0
28 31
0
29 28
2
1
11 14
17
1
2
0
0
0
0 12
9
3
3
1
2
11 11
2
7
1
6
12
1
3
0
11 0
34 35
24 27
0
24 26
31 33
0
15
20
18 19
1
3
Tesco
Asda
Sainsbury's
Temporary Price Reductions
Morrisons
MultiBuy
52 w/e Jan 05 2014 v. 52 w/e Jan 04 2015
Waitrose
Y for £X
The Cooperative
Extra Free
Iceland
1
2
0
Aldi
1
5
Lidl
04-Jan-15
07-Dec-14
09-Nov-14
12-Oct-14
14-Sep-14
17-Aug-14
20-Jul-14
22-Jun-14
25-May-14
27-Apr-14
30-Mar-14
02-Mar-14
02-Feb-14
05-Jan-14
08-Dec-13
10-Nov-13
13-Oct-13
15-Sep-13
18-Aug-13
21-Jul-13
23-Jun-13
26-May-13
28-Apr-13
31-Mar-13
Kingsmill Great Everyday 800gm Price/pack
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
Sainsbury's
Tesco
Asda
0.60
Waitrose
Morrisons
0.40
Co-operative
0.20
0.00
04-Jan-15
07-Dec-14
09-Nov-14
12-Oct-14
14-Sep-14
17-Aug-14
20-Jul-14
22-Jun-14
25-May-14
27-Apr-14
30-Mar-14
02-Mar-14
02-Feb-14
05-Jan-14
08-Dec-13
10-Nov-13
13-Oct-13
15-Sep-13
18-Aug-13
21-Jul-13
23-Jun-13
26-May-13
28-Apr-13
31-Mar-13
Kingsmill Great Everyday 800gm Price/pack
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
Sainsbury's
0.80
Tesco
Asda
0.60
Waitrose
Morrisons
Co-operative
0.40
Aldi
0.20
0.00
Where Lidl shoppers prefer to shop
< In other grocers
In Lidl >
52 w/e Jan 04 2015
Where Aldi shoppers prefer to shop
< In other grocers
In Aldi >
52 w/e Jan 04 2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
Share (Expenditure)
Long-Term Share of Till Roll Grocers
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Waitrose Share Index
I am prepared to pay more for organic food
I actively seek out fair trade products
I try to buy environmentally friendly products
I try to buy local product whenever I can
Price is the most important Factor
Till Roll Share indexed on All Shoppers – 52 w/e May 25 2014
222
197
158
136
63
Till Roll - Net Switching Volumes - Waitrose
Tesco
97
The Co-operative
37
Sainsbury's
36
Morrisons
19
Asda
16
Iceland
5
Farmfoods
1
All Others
-3
Independents
-4
Aldi
Lidl
-14
-17
Switching - £m
52 w/e Jan 05 2014 vs. 52 w/e Jan 04 2015
Till Roll - Net Switching Volumes - Tesco
Independents
21
Iceland
-9
The Co-operative
-9
Farmfoods
-16
All Others
-47
Sainsbury's
-48
Morrisons
-66
Asda
-97
Waitrose
-97
Lidl
Aldi
-146
-321
Switching - £m
52 w/e Jan 05 2014 vs. 52 w/e Jan 04 2015
The Agenda
– External pressures
– The Squeeze
>
– The Effect
– Home Delivery
– Seeking Differentiation
– A role for Ethical Claims
– Bargain Stores
Long-Term Share of Till Roll Grocers
34
32
30
28
26
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Tesco
Asda
Sainsbury's
Morrisons Total
Aldi + Lidl
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
0
1993
Share (Expenditure)
24
Latest Period Till Roll Totals - Share of Total Grocers
Tesco
Sainsbury's
Asda
30.5
29.1
17.1
16.9
17.8
Morrisons
16.8
12.5
The Co-operative
6.4
Waitrose
Aldi
Lidl
Iceland
11.3
5.9
4.4
+4.0%
+£5.3bn
Independents
Farmfoods
5.1
2.5
2.5
3.5
2.1
2.2
1.9
1.8
0.5
12 w/e 08 Jan 12
4.8
0.6
12 w/e 04 Jan 15
Latest Period Till Roll Totals - Share of Total Grocers
Tesco
Sainsbury's
Asda
Morrisons
30.5
29.1
17.1
16.9
17.8
16.8
12.5
The Co-operative
11.3
6.4
Waitrose
5.9
4.4
5.1
Aldi
2.5
Lidl
2.5
Iceland
2.1
2.2
Independents
1.9
1.8
Farmfoods
0.5
12 w/e 08 Jan 12
4.8
3.5
0.6
12 w/e 04 Jan 15
Sainsbury's
Tesco
Asda
Morrisons
04-Jan-15
07-Dec-14
09-Nov-14
12-Oct-14
14-Sep-14
17-Aug-14
20-Jul-14
22-Jun-14
25-May-14
27-Apr-14
30-Mar-14
02-Mar-14
02-Feb-14
05-Jan-14
08-Dec-13
10-Nov-13
13-Oct-13
15-Sep-13
18-Aug-13
21-Jul-13
23-Jun-13
26-May-13
28-Apr-13
31-Mar-13
03-Mar-13
03-Feb-13
06-Jan-13
09-Dec-12
11-Nov-12
14-Oct-12
16-Sep-12
19-Aug-12
22-Jul-12
24-Jun-12
27-May-12
29-Apr-12
01-Apr-12
04-Mar-12
05-Feb-12
08-Jan-12
11-Dec-11
13-Nov-11
Till-Roll Trends - Annual £% Change - Rolling 52wk periods
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Annual Till Roll Totals Expenditure Changes £m
Aldi
1,204
Lidl
638
Waitrose
304
Asda
Iceland
52 w/e Jan 04 2015 y/y £m Change
80
14
03 Apr 11
-400
Net New/Lost
Repeat
Total
04 Jan 15
07 Dec 14
09 Nov 14
12 Oct 14
14 Sep 14
17 Aug 14
20 Jul 14
22 Jun 14
25 May 14
27 Apr 14
30 Mar 14
02 Mar 14
02 Feb 14
05 Jan 14
08 Dec 13
10 Nov 13
13 Oct 13
15 Sep 13
18 Aug 13
21 Jul 13
23 Jun 13
26 May 13
28 Apr 13
31 Mar 13
03 Mar 13
03 Feb 13
06 Jan 13
09 Dec 12
11 Nov 12
14 Oct 12
16 Sep 12
19 Aug 12
22 Jul 12
24 Jun 12
27 May 12
29 Apr 12
01 Apr 12
04 Mar 12
05 Feb 12
08 Jan 12
11 Dec 11
13 Nov 11
16 Oct 11
18 Sep 11
21 Aug 11
24 Jul 11
26 Jun 11
29 May 11
01 May 11
Actual Contribution (000,000s)
400
Tesco - Net New/Lost & Repeat Buyers - Contribution to Change
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
PROMOTIONAL MECHANICS CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH
Tesco - 12 w/e
8%
Contribution to growth %pts
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
Full price
Price reduction
Multibuy
Y for £X
Market growth
Grocery Share at Round Pound Prices £1/2/3/4 - £%
Iceland
43
Asda
33
Farm Foods
31
Tesco
27
Sainsbury's
26
The Co-…
26
Morrisons
22
M&S
21
Independents
16
Waitrose
Lidl
Aldi
12 w/e 04 Jan 2015
14
2
2
02-May-10
30-May-10
27-Jun-10
25-Jul-10
22-Aug-10
19-Sep-10
17-Oct-10
14-Nov-10
12-Dec-10
09-Jan-11
06-Feb-11
06-Mar-11
03-Apr-11
01-May-11
29-May-11
26-Jun-11
24-Jul-11
21-Aug-11
18-Sep-11
16-Oct-11
13-Nov-11
11-Dec-11
08-Jan-12
05-Feb-12
04-Mar-12
01-Apr-12
29-Apr-12
27-May-12
24-Jun-12
22-Jul-12
19-Aug-12
16-Sep-12
14-Oct-12
11-Nov-12
09-Dec-12
06-Jan-13
03-Feb-13
03-Mar-13
31-Mar-13
28-Apr-13
26-May-13
23-Jun-13
21-Jul-13
18-Aug-13
15-Sep-13
13-Oct-13
10-Nov-13
08-Dec-13
05-Jan-14
02-Feb-14
02-Mar-14
30-Mar-14
27-Apr-14
25-May-14
22-Jun-14
20-Jul-14
17-Aug-14
14-Sep-14
12-Oct-14
09-Nov-14
07-Dec-14
04-Jan-15
Grocery Share at Round Pound Prices - £% - Asda
22
20
18
16
14
12
£1
10
£2
£3
8
£4
6
4
2
0
Aldi share amongst Asda/Aldi Shoppers - £%
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
04-Jan-15
07-Dec-14
09-Nov-14
12-Oct-14
14-Sep-14
17-Aug-14
20-Jul-14
22-Jun-14
25-May-14
27-Apr-14
30-Mar-14
02-Mar-14
02-Feb-14
05-Jan-14
08-Dec-13
10-Nov-13
13-Oct-13
15-Sep-13
18-Aug-13
21-Jul-13
23-Jun-13
26-May-13
28-Apr-13
31-Mar-13
03-Mar-13
03-Feb-13
06-Jan-13
09-Dec-12
11-Nov-12
14-Oct-12
16-Sep-12
19-Aug-12
22-Jul-12
24-Jun-12
27-May-12
29-Apr-12
01-Apr-12
04-Mar-12
05-Feb-12
08-Jan-12
11-Dec-11
13-Nov-11
16-Oct-11
18-Sep-11
21-Aug-11
Asda Share Change - 12 week share year-on-year change
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
PROMOTIONAL MECHANICS CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH
Asda - 12 w/e
6%
Contribution to growth %pts
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
Full price
Price reduction
Multibuy
Y for £X
Market growth
Grocery (RST) 12w/e
63
Value
Values
Basics v Smart Price - 4 weekly sales
65
60
55
£m
50
45
40
35
Sainsbury Basics
Asda Smartprice
Value
Values
Sainsbury’s Share Index
I actively seek out fair trade products
I am prepared to pay more for organic food
I regard myself as a connoisseur of food and wine
I try to buy environmentally friendly products
I consider that price is the most important factor
Till Roll Share indexed on All Shoppers – 52 w/e May 25 2014
132
119
114
110
86
Trading Indices - Morrisons
52 w/e Jan 04 2015
Market Sectors indexed on Total Groceries
Fresh Fish
Fresh Meat
Chilled Bakery Products
Canned Goods
Chilled Convenience
Fresh Poultry+Game
Hot Beverages
Alcohol
Savoury Home Cooking
Ambient Bakery Products
130
118
113
111
107
106
105
104
103
103
Fresh & Chilled Trading Indices
115
110
105.9
105.8
103.6
103.9
52 w/e 06 Jan 13
52 w/e 05 Jan 14
105.7
105
103.1
100
95
90
Sainsbury's
Morrisons
52 w/e 04 Jan 15
Fresh & Chilled Trading Indices
115
110
105.9
105.8
103.6
103.9
52 w/e 06 Jan 13
52 w/e 05 Jan 14
105.7
105
103.1
100
95
90
Sainsbury's
Morrisons
Lidl
Aldi
52 w/e 04 Jan 15
03 Apr 11
-150
Net New/Lost
Repeat
Total
04 Jan 15
07 Dec 14
09 Nov 14
12 Oct 14
14 Sep 14
17 Aug 14
20 Jul 14
22 Jun 14
25 May 14
27 Apr 14
30 Mar 14
02 Mar 14
02 Feb 14
05 Jan 14
08 Dec 13
10 Nov 13
13 Oct 13
15 Sep 13
18 Aug 13
21 Jul 13
23 Jun 13
26 May 13
28 Apr 13
31 Mar 13
03 Mar 13
03 Feb 13
06 Jan 13
09 Dec 12
11 Nov 12
14 Oct 12
16 Sep 12
19 Aug 12
22 Jul 12
24 Jun 12
27 May 12
29 Apr 12
01 Apr 12
04 Mar 12
05 Feb 12
08 Jan 12
11 Dec 11
13 Nov 11
16 Oct 11
18 Sep 11
21 Aug 11
24 Jul 11
26 Jun 11
29 May 11
01 May 11
Actual Contribution (000,000s)
200
Morrisons - Net New/Lost & Repeat Buyers - Contribution to Change
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
Frosty morning? Don’t worry, we’ve found a use for that Morrisons card…
Fresh + Chilled Trading Indices - 52 w/e Jan 04 2015
M&S
176
Waitrose
125
Lidl
113
Aldi
107
Sainsbury's
106
Morrisons
103
Total Grocers
100
Tesco
97
The Co-operative
96
Asda
96
Independents
76
Iceland
Farm Foods
65
44
Iceland
Iceland Baseline
Weekly 3 Point Centred Moving Average
04-Jan-15
07-Dec-14
09-Nov-14
12-Oct-14
14-Sep-14
17-Aug-14
20-Jul-14
22-Jun-14
25-May-14
27-Apr-14
30-Mar-14
02-Mar-14
02-Feb-14
05-Jan-14
08-Dec-13
10-Nov-13
13-Oct-13
15-Sep-13
18-Aug-13
21-Jul-13
23-Jun-13
26-May-13
28-Apr-13
31-Mar-13
03-Mar-13
03-Feb-13
06-Jan-13
09-Dec-12
11-Nov-12
14-Oct-12
16-Sep-12
19-Aug-12
22-Jul-12
24-Jun-12
27-May-12
29-Apr-12
01-Apr-12
04-Mar-12
05-Feb-12
Share (Expenditure)
Iceland Share of Till Roll Grocers
Iceland Share of Till Roll Grocers
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Iceland
Household Income Signatures
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
£0 - £9999
pa
£10000 £19999 pa
£20000 £29999 pa
£30000 £39999 pa
£40000 £49999 pa
52 w/e Jan 04 2015
£50000 £59999 pa
£60000 £69999 pa
£70000 +
The Co-operative
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
Share (Expenditure)
Long-Term Share of Till Roll Grocers
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Waitrose
The Co-operative
Aldi + Lidl
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
Share (Expenditure)
Long-Term Share of Till Roll Grocers
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
04-Jan-15
07-Dec-14
09-Nov-14
12-Oct-14
14-Sep-14
17-Aug-14
20-Jul-14
22-Jun-14
25-May-14
27-Apr-14
30-Mar-14
02-Mar-14
02-Feb-14
05-Jan-14
08-Dec-13
10-Nov-13
13-Oct-13
15-Sep-13
18-Aug-13
21-Jul-13
23-Jun-13
26-May-13
28-Apr-13
31-Mar-13
03-Mar-13
03-Feb-13
06-Jan-13
09-Dec-12
11-Nov-12
14-Oct-12
16-Sep-12
19-Aug-12
22-Jul-12
24-Jun-12
27-May-12
29-Apr-12
01-Apr-12
04-Mar-12
05-Feb-12
Share (Expenditure)
M&S Share of Fresh & Chilled Groceries
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
0
12 w/e Periods
04-Jan-15
07-Dec-14
09-Nov-14
12-Oct-14
14-Sep-14
17-Aug-14
20-Jul-14
22-Jun-14
25-May-14
27-Apr-14
30-Mar-14
02-Mar-14
02-Feb-14
05-Jan-14
08-Dec-13
10-Nov-13
13-Oct-13
15-Sep-13
18-Aug-13
21-Jul-13
23-Jun-13
26-May-13
28-Apr-13
31-Mar-13
M&S Year-on-Year Growth Trends - RST £%
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Trended Loyalty Breakdown
Waitrose £%
20.2
27.1
52.7
21.0
25.5
53.5
19.9
25.1
55.1
M&S £%
19.9
25.2
54.9
20.7
44.4
43.6
42.3
41.0
40.0
40.9
41.0
40.5
40.8
41.6
14.0
15.5
16.7
18.5
19.2
26.9
52.4
09-Jan- 08-Jan- 06-Jan- 05-Jan- 04-Jan09-Jan- 08-Jan- 06-Jan- 05-Jan- 04-Jan11
12
13
14
15 52 w/e periods 11
12
13
14
15
High Loyal (>50%)
Medium Loyal (>20%)
Low Loyal (>0%)
The Agenda
– External pressures
– The Squeeze
– The Effect
>
– Home Delivery
– Seeking Differentiation
– A role for Ethical Claims
– Bargain Stores
Total Internet Grocery - Rolling 12 w/e growth
22
21
22
20
19
18
18
16
16
16
17
17
16
19
19
20
20
20
19
18
20
19
17
17
15
15
03- 03- 31- 28- 26- 23- 21- 18- 15- 13- 10- 08- 05- 02- 02- 30- 27- 25- 22- 20- 17- 14- 12- 09- 07- 04Feb- Mar- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan13
13
13
13
13
13
13 13
13
13 13
13
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14 14
14
14 14
14
15
Total Grocery Internet
Lifestage Signatures
13
11
9
7
5
3
1
Pre-Family
-1
Young
Family 0-4
Years
Middle
Family 5-9
Years
Family 10+
Years
Older
Dependents
52 w/e Dec 07 2014
Empty
Nesters
Retired
Total Grocery Internet
Lifestage Signatures
13
11
9
7
5
3
1
Pre-Family
-1
Young
Family 0-4
Years
Middle
Family 5-9
Years
Family 10+
Years
Older
Dependents
52 w/e Dec 07 2014
Empty
Nesters
Retired
Total Grocery Internet
Lifestage Signatures
13
11
9
7
5
3
1
Pre-Family
-1
Young
Family 0-4
Years
Middle
Family 5-9
Years
Family 10+
Years
Older
Dependents
52 w/e Dec 07 2014
Empty
Nesters
Retired
Total Grocery Internet
Household Income Signatures
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
£0 - £9999
pa
£10000 £19999 pa
£20000 £29999 pa
£30000 £39999 pa
£40000 £49999 pa
52 w/e Dec 07 2014
£50000 £59999 pa
£60000 £69999 pa
£70000 +
Till Roll - Duplication by Tesco Internet Buyers
Sainsbury's Internet
8.4
Asda Internet
311
11.8
Waitrose Internet
257
5.1
Tesco
232
79.3
117
Waitrose
Sainsbury's
Asda
Morrisons
12.9
40.9
37.7
31.3
Brand Buyers also Buying
90
85
74
70
Duplication Index
12 w/e Jan 04 2015
Trading Index
Internet Delivery
Organic
194
Frozen
122
Household
118
Toiletries
103
Ambient Groceries
102
Fresh+Chilled
98
Alcohol
Healthcare
83
62
52 w/e Jan 04 2015
Chilled / Fresh
Frozen
Chilled / Fresh
Frozen
Trading Index
Internet Delivery
Fresh Poultry
114
Fresh Sausages
114
Fresh Bacon Rashers
95
Fresh Beef
94
Fresh Pork
86
Fresh Bacon Joint
85
Fresh Lamb
Fresh Fish
84
82
52 w/e Jan 04 2015
The Agenda
– External pressures
– The Squeeze
– The Effect
– Home Delivery
>
– Seeking Differentiation
– A role for Ethical Claims
– Bargain Stores
In-store theatre
Own-label
Premium Own-Label Sales Trends
Latest 12-wk % Change
120
80
60
40
20
Tesco Finest
-10%
Sainsbury's Taste the Difference
+6%
Asda Extra Special
+6%
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
0
2003
Sales (Expenditure £m)
100
Morrisons Premium
+18%
The Agenda
– External pressures
– The Squeeze
– The Effect
– Home Delivery
– Seeking Differentiation
>
– A role for Ethical Claims
– Bargain Stores
I regard myself as a connoisseur of food and wine
202
Waitrose
M&S
118
Sainsbury's
114
Lidl
109
Tesco
100
Aldi
94
The Co-operative
91
Morrisons
84
Asda
77
Bargain Stores
68
Independents
64
Farmfoods
64
Iceland
\
56
Outlet Share Index
52 w/e Aug 17 2014
I Consider That Price Is The Most Important Factor
W hen Buying A Product
Farmfoods
131
Iceland
121
Independents
119
Aldi
116
Asda
113
Bargain Stores
112
Lidl
110
Tesco
102
Morrisons
101
The Co-operative
93
Sainsbury's
M&S
Waitrose
86
66
65
Outlet Share Index
52 w/e Aug 17 2014
90
40
23-Oct-05
18-Dec-05
12-Feb-06
09-Apr-06
04-Jun-06
30-Jul-06
24-Sep-06
19-Nov-06
14-Jan-07
11-Mar-07
06-May-07
01-Jul-07
26-Aug-07
21-Oct-07
16-Dec-07
10-Feb-08
06-Apr-08
01-Jun-08
27-Jul-08
21-Sep-08
16-Nov-08
11-Jan-09
08-Mar-09
03-May-09
28-Jun-09
23-Aug-09
18-Oct-09
13-Dec-09
07-Feb-10
04-Apr-10
30-May-10
25-Jul-10
19-Sep-10
14-Nov-10
09-Jan-11
06-Mar-11
01-May-11
26-Jun-11
21-Aug-11
16-Oct-11
11-Dec-11
05-Feb-12
01-Apr-12
27-May-12
22-Jul-12
16-Sep-12
11-Nov-12
06-Jan-13
03-Mar-13
28-Apr-13
23-Jun-13
18-Aug-13
13-Oct-13
08-Dec-13
02-Feb-14
30-Mar-14
25-May-14
20-Jul-14
14-Sep-14
09-Nov-14
Fairtrade Prepacked Bananas Market Share
100
Sainsbury
80
70
60
50
Total Grocers
30
20
10
0
Fairtrade Shares
Sainsbury's
30
Tesco
20
The Co-operative
17
Morrisons
10
Waitrose
10
Asda
7
M&S
3
Lidl
1
Iceland
1
Independents
1
Aldi
1
Farm Foods
0
Share of Fairtrade - 52 w/e Jan 04 2015
60
14-Jan-07
11-Mar-07
06-May-07
01-Jul-07
26-Aug-07
21-Oct-07
16-Dec-07
10-Feb-08
06-Apr-08
01-Jun-08
27-Jul-08
21-Sep-08
16-Nov-08
11-Jan-09
08-Mar-09
03-May-09
28-Jun-09
23-Aug-09
18-Oct-09
13-Dec-09
07-Feb-10
04-Apr-10
30-May-10
25-Jul-10
19-Sep-10
14-Nov-10
09-Jan-11
06-Mar-11
01-May-11
26-Jun-11
21-Aug-11
16-Oct-11
11-Dec-11
05-Feb-12
01-Apr-12
27-May-12
22-Jul-12
16-Sep-12
11-Nov-12
06-Jan-13
03-Mar-13
28-Apr-13
23-Jun-13
18-Aug-13
13-Oct-13
08-Dec-13
02-Feb-14
30-Mar-14
25-May-14
20-Jul-14
14-Sep-14
09-Nov-14
Not-Caged Eggs Market Share
100
90
Sainsbury’s
80
70
Morrisons
Asda
50
Tesco
40
30
Total Organic Grocery Products including Baby - 4 weekly £m
100
80
60
40
20
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Total Organic Market (inc. Baby) Rolling 52 week periods Y-on-Y Change %
7
7
6
5
3
3
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-6 -6 -6 -6 -6
-7 -7
-6
-5
-5
7
7
6
6
6
5
4
3
2
2
2
Organic Growth - £m - 52 w/e Jan 04 2015
16.6
5.0
3.3
3.2
2.3
2.1
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.3
1.2
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.8
-0.8
-0.9
-1.0
-1.3
-1.3
-1.6
-1.9
-2.2
-2.6
-3.1
-4.0
Yoghurt
Fresh Poultry
Chilled Ready Meals
Eggs
Fromage Frais
Butter
Chilled Desserts
Cooking Oils
Fruit
Chilled Dips
Ambient Soup
Fresh Beef
Total Cheese
Crackers & Crispbreads
Vinegar
Artificial Sweeteners
Morning Goods
Ambnt Fruit/Yght Juc+Drnk
Fresh Pork
Food Drinks
Dry Pasta
Cereal+Fruit Bars
Fresh Cream
Cider
Fresh Lamb
Breakfast Cereals
Chocolate Confectionery
Frozen Beef
Total Milk
Total Bread
Vegetables
What happens when low prices rule the supply chain
Impact of the Horsemeat Scandal - 52 w/e Dec 07 2014
Frozen Burgers
14
Chilled Ready Meals
5
Fresh Beef
3
Chilled Quorn
2
Frozen Quorn
2
Frozen Ready Meals
1
Fresh Poultry
-1
Frozen Poultry
-2
Fresh Pork
-3
Fresh Lamb
-3
Frozen Beef
-11
Frozen Pork
Frozen Lamb
-18
-24
% Chg y/y
0
14-Nov-10
12-Dec-10
09-Jan-11
06-Feb-11
06-Mar-11
03-Apr-11
01-May-11
29-May-11
26-Jun-11
24-Jul-11
21-Aug-11
18-Sep-11
16-Oct-11
13-Nov-11
11-Dec-11
08-Jan-12
05-Feb-12
04-Mar-12
01-Apr-12
29-Apr-12
27-May-12
24-Jun-12
22-Jul-12
19-Aug-12
16-Sep-12
14-Oct-12
11-Nov-12
09-Dec-12
06-Jan-13
03-Feb-13
03-Mar-13
31-Mar-13
28-Apr-13
26-May-13
23-Jun-13
21-Jul-13
18-Aug-13
15-Sep-13
13-Oct-13
10-Nov-13
08-Dec-13
05-Jan-14
02-Feb-14
02-Mar-14
30-Mar-14
27-Apr-14
25-May-14
22-Jun-14
20-Jul-14
17-Aug-14
14-Sep-14
12-Oct-14
09-Nov-14
Freedom Foods - 4 weekly sales - £m
20
15
10
5
Freedom Food Shares
Sainsbury's
72
The Co-operative
15
Tesco
7
M&S
4
Lidl
3
Asda
1
Morrisons
0
Aldi
0
Independents
0
Waitrose
0
Iceland
0
Farm Foods
0
Share of Freedom Food - 52 w/e Nov 09 2014
The Agenda
– External pressures
– The Squeeze
– The Effect
– Home Delivery
– Seeking Differentiation
– A role for Ethical Claims
>
– Bargain Stores
Till Roll Totals Expenditure Trends
Total Bargain
Stores
Total Grocers
12
1
12 w/e 04 Jan 2015 y/y % Change
Till Roll Totals - Share of Total Grocers
Tesco
29.6
29.1
Sainsbury's
17.1
16.9
Asda
17.1
16.8
Morrisons
11.5
The Co-operative
11.3
6.1
Waitrose
5.9
4.8
Aldi
5.1
4.0
4.8
Total Bargain Stores
3.4
3.7
Lidl
3.1
3.5
Iceland
2.2
2.2
Independents
1.9
1.8
Farmfoods
0.6
12 w/e 05 Jan 14
0.6
12 w/e 04 Jan 15
Till Roll Totals - Penetrations
Tesco
Asda
Sainsbury's
Total Bargain Stores
Morrisons
Aldi
The Co-operative
Lidl
Iceland
78.7
78.5
60.4
59.7
58.8
58.2
52.4
54.0
49.4
49.3
34.2
36.6
36.3
35.0
31.0
34.0
32.6
33.7
Waitrose
19.7
Independents
19.0
Farmfoods
12.2
12 w/e 05 Jan 14
20.0
18.5
11.7
12 w/e 04 Jan 15
!
TOTAL BARGAIN STORES – LIFESTAGE SIGNATURE
5
4
3
2
1
0
Pre-Family
Young
Family 0-4
Years
Middle
Family 5-9
Years
Family 10+
Years
Older
Dependents
52 w/e 07 Dec 14
Empty
Nesters
Retired
TOTAL BARGAIN STORES – HOUSEHOLD INCOME SIGNATURE
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
£0 - £9999 £10000 pa
£19999 pa
£20000 £29999 pa
£30000 £39999 pa
£40000 £49999 pa
52 w/e 07 Dec 14
£50000 £59999 pa
£60000 £69999 pa
£70000 +
Till Roll - Total Net Switching Volumes - Summary
Aldi
181
Lidl
87
Waitrose
55
Total Bargain Stores
52
All Others
22
Iceland
-2
Morrisons
-13
Farmfoods
-16
Independents
-22
The Co-operative
-51
Sainsbury's
Asda
Tesco
-82
-101
-111
Switching - Spend (£m)
12 w/e Jan 05 2014 vs. 12 w/e Jan 04 2015
GROWTH:
Aldi +30%
Lidl +19%
Waitrose +6%
Tesco Finest -10%
Sainsbury’s TTD +6%
Branded Organic +8%
Bargain Stores +12%
Internet +15%
Market Turmoil :
Tesco
CEO sacked
43 supermarket closures - 49 developments abandoned
Head Office (Cheshunt) Closure
SFO Investigation
Up to 30% range reduction
Asda
1,360 management redundancies
Restructuring of senior team with 5 VPs leaving
2,500 new price cuts
Sainsbury’s
500 Head Office redundancies
1,000 new price cuts
Morris
CEO sacked
10 supermarket closures
edward.garner@kantarworldpanel.com
twitter edgarner
UK RETAIL SEMINAR
Wednesday, 11th February 2015
Grace Binchy,
Insight & Innovation Specialist, Bord Bia
‘UK Consumer insights & current trends’
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture