UK Retail & Consumer Outlook
Edward Garner - Communications Director
Aldi Lidl
Everyone else
Waitrose M&S
UK Retail & Consumer Outlook
Edward Garner - Communications Director
The Agenda
>
– External pressures
– The Squeeze
– The Effect
– Home Delivery
– Seeking Differentiation
– A role for Ethical Claims
– Beef Insights
Global Food Price Indices
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Cereals Price Index
Food Price Index, UN FAO
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Food and Drink as a Proportion of UK Household Expenditure %
25
20
15
10
5
0
Source: ONS Series ABQI / ABZV
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Food and Drink as a Proportion of UK Household Expenditure %
25
Housing & Utilities
20
15
10
5
0
Source: ONS Series ABQI / ABZV
10%
24/Aug/08
19/Oct/08
14/Dec/08
08/Feb/09
05/Apr/09
31/May/09
26/Jul/09
20/Sep/09
15/Nov/09
10/Jan/10
07/Mar/10
02/May/10
27/Jun/10
22/Aug/10
17/Oct/10
12/Dec/10
06/Feb/11
03/Apr/11
29/May/11
24/Jul/11
18/Sep/11
13/Nov/11
08/Jan/12
04/Mar/12
29/Apr/12
24/Jun/12
19/Aug/12
14/Oct/12
09/Dec/12
03/Feb/13
31/Mar/13
26/May/13
21/Jul/13
15/Sep/13
10/Nov/13
05/Jan/14
02/Mar/14
27/Apr/14
22/Jun/14
17/Aug/14
12/Oct/14
07/Dec/14
Grocery Market Growth v. Inflation
Recession
Recovery?
Squeezed Household Budgets + Falling Inflation
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
12 we growth (Grocers RST)
12 we inflation
-40
12 w/e periods - Total Grocery
07-Dec-14
09-Nov-14
12-Oct-14
14-Sep-14
17-Aug-14
20-Jul-14
22-Jun-14
25-May-14
27-Apr-14
30-Mar-14
02-Mar-14
02-Feb-14
05-Jan-14
08-Dec-13
10-Nov-13
13-Oct-13
15-Sep-13
18-Aug-13
21-Jul-13
23-Jun-13
26-May-13
28-Apr-13
31-Mar-13
03-Mar-13
03-Feb-13
06-Jan-13
09-Dec-12
11-Nov-12
14-Oct-12
16-Sep-12
19-Aug-12
22-Jul-12
24-Jun-12
27-May-12
29-Apr-12
01-Apr-12
04-Mar-12
05-Feb-12
Value Own-Label Year-on-Year £% Changes - Big 4
60
50
40
30
20
10
Sainsbury's
Tesco
0
Asda
Morrisons
-10
-20
-30
The Agenda
– External pressures
>
– The Squeeze
– The Effect
– Home Delivery
– Seeking Differentiation
– A role for Ethical Claims
– Beef Insights
Annual Till Roll Totals Expenditure Trends
Aldi
30
Lidl
20
Waitrose
6
Total Grocers
1
Iceland
1
Asda
1
Sainsbury's
0
The Co-operative
-1
Independents
-1
Tesco
-3
Morrisons
-3
52 w/e Dec 07 2014 y/y % Change
Till Roll Annual Growth Rates
20
15
Waitrose Aldi Lidl
10
5
0
Big 4
-5
12 w/e Periods
Discounters
Threat…
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
Share (Expenditure)
Long-Term Share of Till Roll Grocers
5
4
3
2
1
0
0
Net New/Lost
Repeat
Total
07 Dec 14
09 Nov 14
12 Oct 14
14 Sep 14
17 Aug 14
20 Jul 14
22 Jun 14
25 May 14
27 Apr 14
30 Mar 14
02 Mar 14
02 Feb 14
05 Jan 14
08 Dec 13
10 Nov 13
13 Oct 13
15 Sep 13
18 Aug 13
21 Jul 13
23 Jun 13
26 May 13
28 Apr 13
31 Mar 13
03 Mar 13
03 Feb 13
06 Jan 13
09 Dec 12
11 Nov 12
14 Oct 12
16 Sep 12
19 Aug 12
22 Jul 12
24 Jun 12
27 May 12
29 Apr 12
01 Apr 12
04 Mar 12
05 Feb 12
08 Jan 12
11 Dec 11
13 Nov 11
16 Oct 11
18 Sep 11
21 Aug 11
24 Jul 11
26 Jun 11
29 May 11
01 May 11
03 Apr 11
06 Mar 11
Actual Contribution (000,000s)
350
Aldi - Net New/Lost & Repeat Buyers - Contribution to Change
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Net New/Lost
Repeat
Total
07 Dec 14
09 Nov 14
12 Oct 14
14 Sep 14
17 Aug 14
20 Jul 14
22 Jun 14
25 May 14
27 Apr 14
30 Mar 14
02 Mar 14
02 Feb 14
05 Jan 14
08 Dec 13
10 Nov 13
13 Oct 13
15 Sep 13
18 Aug 13
21 Jul 13
23 Jun 13
26 May 13
28 Apr 13
31 Mar 13
03 Mar 13
03 Feb 13
06 Jan 13
09 Dec 12
11 Nov 12
14 Oct 12
16 Sep 12
19 Aug 12
22 Jul 12
24 Jun 12
27 May 12
29 Apr 12
01 Apr 12
04 Mar 12
05 Feb 12
08 Jan 12
11 Dec 11
13 Nov 11
16 Oct 11
18 Sep 11
21 Aug 11
24 Jul 11
26 Jun 11
29 May 11
01 May 11
03 Apr 11
06 Mar 11
Actual Contribution (000,000s)
200
Lidl - Net New/Lost & Repeat Buyers - Contribution to Change
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
07-Dec-14
09-Nov-14
12-Oct-14
14-Sep-14
17-Aug-14
20-Jul-14
22-Jun-14
25-May-14
27-Apr-14
30-Mar-14
02-Mar-14
02-Feb-14
05-Jan-14
08-Dec-13
10-Nov-13
13-Oct-13
15-Sep-13
18-Aug-13
21-Jul-13
23-Jun-13
26-May-13
28-Apr-13
31-Mar-13
03-Mar-13
03-Feb-13
06-Jan-13
09-Dec-12
11-Nov-12
14-Oct-12
16-Sep-12
19-Aug-12
22-Jul-12
24-Jun-12
27-May-12
29-Apr-12
01-Apr-12
04-Mar-12
05-Feb-12
32
08-Jan-12
Average 4-weekly spend (£)
Retailer Spend per Trip (Basket Size) Trends
Spend per Visit (Basket Size) Trends
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
Trading Indices - Aldi
Frozen Poultry+Game
Frozen Fish
Packet Breakfast
Fruit+Veg+Salads
Fresh Poultry+Game
Biscuits
Fresh Meat
Canned Goods
Sweet Home Cooking
Ambient Bakery Products
Take Home Savouries
Frozen Confectionery
52 w/e Dec 07 2014
238
150
128
127
124
121
117
111
109
107
107
105
Trading Indices - Lidl
Fruit+Veg+Salads
Fresh Poultry+Game
Fresh Meat
Sweet Home Cooking
Frozen Fish
Frozen Confectionery
Frozen Poultry+Game
Canned Goods
Pickle+Tbl Sce+Condiment
Frozen Meat
Packet Breakfast
Fresh Fish
52 w/e Dec 07 2014
143
137
133
130
125
124
124
116
114
113
111
106
Year-on-Year Expenditure Trends - % change
Aldi
Fresh+Chilled
35.6
Toiletries
32.9
TOTAL GROCERIES
28.1
Ambient Groceries
23.9
Household
23.5
Frozen
23.1
52 w/e 07 Dec 14
Alcohol
19.0
Year-on-Year Expenditure Trends - & change
Lidl
Fresh+Chilled
29.6
TOTAL GROCERIES
20.2
Alcohol
16.0
Frozen
14.7
Ambient Groceries
12.6
Household
9.7
52 w/e 07 Dec 14
Toiletries
8.2
TheImportance
Importance
Promotions
Retailer
The
ofof
Promotions
byby
Retailer
% Outlet Turnover by Promotional Type
0
0
0
0
15 15
3
3
0
14 14
0
0
0
0
1
11 11
17 17
1
1
0
2
2
1
11 11
0
9
0
9
3
3
2
2
6
6
1
3
0
11 11
28 28
29 29
35 35
24 24
31 31
0
0
23 23
18 18
15 15
1
3
Tesco
Asda
Sainsbury's
Temporary Price Reductions
Morrisons
MultiBuy
52 w/e Dec 08 2013 v. 52 w/e Dec 07 2014
Waitrose
Y for £X
The Cooperative
Extra Free
1
3
0
Iceland
Aldi
1
3
Lidl
Kingsmill Great Everyday 800gm Price/pack
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
Sainsbury's
0.80
Tesco
Asda
0.60
Waitrose
Morrisons
Co-operative
0.40
0.20
0.00
Kingsmill Great Everyday 800gm Price/pack
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
Sainsbury's
0.80
Tesco
Asda
Waitrose
0.60
Morrisons
Co-operative
0.40
0.20
0.00
Aldi
Where Lidl shoppers prefer to shop
< In other grocers
In Lidl >
52 w/e Nov 09 2014
Where Aldi shoppers prefer to shop
< In other grocers
In Aldi >
52 w/e Nov 09 2014
Waitrose
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
Share (Expenditure)
Long-Term Share of Till Roll Grocers
6
5
4
3
2
1
Waitrose Share Index
I am prepared to pay more for organic food
I actively seek out fair trade products
I try to buy environmentally friendly products
I try to buy local product whenever I can
Price is the most important Factor
Till Roll Share indexed on All Shoppers – 52 w/e May 25 2014
222
197
158
136
63
Till Roll - Net Switching Volumes - Waitrose
Tesco
105
The Co-operative
35
Sainsbury's
29
Morrisons
19
Asda
17
Iceland
4
Farmfoods
0
All Others
-4
Independents
-5
Aldi
Lidl
-13
-17
Switching - £m
52 w/e Dec 08 2013 vs. 52 w/e Dec 07 2014
Till Roll - Net Switching Volumes - Tesco
Independents
18
The Co-operative
-8
Iceland
-14
Farmfoods
-21
All Others
-48
Morrisons
-59
Sainsbury's
-93
Waitrose
-105
Asda
-105
Lidl
Aldi
-147
-316
Switching - £m
52 w/e Dec 08 2013 vs. 52 w/e Dec 07 2014
The Agenda
– External pressures
– The Squeeze
>
– The Effect
– Home Delivery
– Seeking Differentiation
– A role for Ethical Claims
– Beef Insights
Long-Term Share of Till Roll Grocers
34
32
30
28
26
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Tesco
Asda
Sainsbury's
Morrisons Total
Total Hard Discounters
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
0
1993
Share (Expenditure)
24
Latest Period Till Roll Totals - Share of Total Grocers
Tesco
Asda
Sainsbury's
30.9
29.1
17.4
16.7
16.8
Morrisons
16.5
12.4
The Co-operative
6.6
Waitrose
Aldi
Lidl
11.2
6.1
4.3
+4.2%
+£5.2bn
5.0
2.5
4.9
2.6
3.7
Iceland
2.0
2.1
Independents
2.0
1.9
Farmfoods
0.6
52 w/e 11 Dec 11
0.6
52 w/e 07 Dec 14
Latest Period Till Roll Totals - Share of Total Grocers
Tesco
Asda
Sainsbury's
Morrisons
30.9
29.1
17.4
16.7
16.8
16.5
12.4
The Co-operative
11.2
6.6
Waitrose
6.1
4.3
5.0
Aldi
2.5
Lidl
2.6
4.9
3.7
Iceland
2.0
2.1
Independents
2.0
1.9
Farmfoods
0.6
52 w/e 11 Dec 11
0.6
52 w/e 07 Dec 14
Sainsbury's
Tesco
Asda
Morrisons
07-Dec-14
09-Nov-14
12-Oct-14
14-Sep-14
17-Aug-14
20-Jul-14
22-Jun-14
25-May-14
27-Apr-14
30-Mar-14
02-Mar-14
02-Feb-14
05-Jan-14
08-Dec-13
10-Nov-13
13-Oct-13
15-Sep-13
18-Aug-13
21-Jul-13
23-Jun-13
26-May-13
28-Apr-13
31-Mar-13
03-Mar-13
03-Feb-13
06-Jan-13
09-Dec-12
11-Nov-12
14-Oct-12
16-Sep-12
19-Aug-12
22-Jul-12
24-Jun-12
27-May-12
29-Apr-12
01-Apr-12
04-Mar-12
05-Feb-12
08-Jan-12
11-Dec-11
13-Nov-11
16-Oct-11
Till-Roll Trends - Annual £% Change - Rolling 52wk periods
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Annual Till Roll Totals Expenditure Changes £m
Aldi
1,186
Lidl
646
Waitrose
292
Asda
Iceland
52 w/e Dec 07 2014 y/y £m Change
136
17
-400
Net New/Lost
Repeat
Total
07 Dec 14
09 Nov 14
12 Oct 14
14 Sep 14
17 Aug 14
20 Jul 14
22 Jun 14
25 May 14
27 Apr 14
30 Mar 14
02 Mar 14
02 Feb 14
05 Jan 14
08 Dec 13
10 Nov 13
13 Oct 13
15 Sep 13
18 Aug 13
21 Jul 13
23 Jun 13
26 May 13
28 Apr 13
31 Mar 13
03 Mar 13
03 Feb 13
06 Jan 13
09 Dec 12
11 Nov 12
14 Oct 12
16 Sep 12
19 Aug 12
22 Jul 12
24 Jun 12
27 May 12
29 Apr 12
01 Apr 12
04 Mar 12
05 Feb 12
08 Jan 12
11 Dec 11
13 Nov 11
16 Oct 11
18 Sep 11
21 Aug 11
24 Jul 11
26 Jun 11
29 May 11
01 May 11
03 Apr 11
06 Mar 11
Actual Contribution (000,000s)
400
Tesco - Net New/Lost & Repeat Buyers - Contribution to Change
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
Grocery Share at Round Pound Prices £1/2/3/4 - £%
Iceland
44
Asda
34
Farm Foods
31
Tesco
27
Sainsbury's
27
The Co-operative
26
Morrisons
22
M&S
22
Independents
17
Waitrose
15
Lidl
Aldi
12 w/e 07 Dec 2014
2
1
Aldi share amongst Asda/Aldi Shoppers - £%
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
24-Jul-11
07-Dec-14
09-Nov-14
12-Oct-14
14-Sep-14
17-Aug-14
20-Jul-14
22-Jun-14
25-May-14
27-Apr-14
30-Mar-14
02-Mar-14
02-Feb-14
05-Jan-14
08-Dec-13
10-Nov-13
13-Oct-13
15-Sep-13
18-Aug-13
21-Jul-13
23-Jun-13
26-May-13
28-Apr-13
31-Mar-13
03-Mar-13
03-Feb-13
06-Jan-13
09-Dec-12
11-Nov-12
14-Oct-12
16-Sep-12
19-Aug-12
22-Jul-12
24-Jun-12
27-May-12
29-Apr-12
01-Apr-12
04-Mar-12
05-Feb-12
08-Jan-12
11-Dec-11
13-Nov-11
16-Oct-11
18-Sep-11
21-Aug-11
Asda Share Change - 12 week share year-on-year change
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
Value
Values
Basics v Smart Price - 4 weekly sales
65
60
55
£m
50
45
40
35
Sainsbury Basics
Asda Smartprice
Value
Values
Sainsbury’s Share Index
I actively seek out fair trade products
I am prepared to pay more for organic food
I regard myself as a connoisseur of food and wine
I try to buy environmentally friendly products
I consider that price is the most important factor
Till Roll Share indexed on All Shoppers – 52 w/e May 25 2014
132
119
114
110
86
Trading Indices - Morrisons
52 w/e Dec 07 2014
Market Sectors indexed on Total Groceries
Fresh Fish
Fresh Meat
Chilled Bakery Products
Canned Goods
Chilled Convenience
Fresh Poultry+Game
Hot Beverages
Alcohol
Biscuits
Savoury Home Cooking
130
118
113
111
107
105
105
103
103
103
Fresh & Chilled Trading Indices
Sainsbury’s
Morrisons
105.8
103.7
106.0
105.7
103.7
103.1
52 w/e 09 Dec 12
Sainsbury's
52 w/e 08 Dec 13
Morrisons
52 w/e 07 Dec 14
-150
Net New/Lost
Repeat
Total
07 Dec 14
09 Nov 14
12 Oct 14
14 Sep 14
17 Aug 14
20 Jul 14
22 Jun 14
25 May 14
27 Apr 14
30 Mar 14
02 Mar 14
02 Feb 14
05 Jan 14
08 Dec 13
10 Nov 13
13 Oct 13
15 Sep 13
18 Aug 13
21 Jul 13
23 Jun 13
26 May 13
28 Apr 13
31 Mar 13
03 Mar 13
03 Feb 13
06 Jan 13
09 Dec 12
11 Nov 12
14 Oct 12
16 Sep 12
19 Aug 12
22 Jul 12
24 Jun 12
27 May 12
29 Apr 12
01 Apr 12
04 Mar 12
05 Feb 12
08 Jan 12
11 Dec 11
13 Nov 11
16 Oct 11
18 Sep 11
21 Aug 11
24 Jul 11
26 Jun 11
29 May 11
01 May 11
03 Apr 11
06 Mar 11
Actual Contribution (000,000s)
200
Morrisons - Net New/Lost & Repeat Buyers - Contribution to Change
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
Frosty morning? Don’t worry, we’ve found a use for that Morrisons card…
Fresh + Chilled Trading Indices - 52 w/e Dec 07 2014
M&S
174
Waitrose
126
Lidl
113
Aldi
106
Sainsbury's
106
Morrisons
103
Total Grocers
100
Tesco
97
The Co-operative
97
Asda
96
Independents
76
Iceland
Farm Foods
66
44
Iceland
Iceland Baseline
Weekly 3 Point Centred Moving Average
07-Dec-14
09-Nov-14
12-Oct-14
14-Sep-14
17-Aug-14
20-Jul-14
22-Jun-14
25-May-14
27-Apr-14
30-Mar-14
02-Mar-14
02-Feb-14
05-Jan-14
08-Dec-13
10-Nov-13
13-Oct-13
15-Sep-13
18-Aug-13
21-Jul-13
23-Jun-13
26-May-13
28-Apr-13
31-Mar-13
03-Mar-13
03-Feb-13
06-Jan-13
09-Dec-12
11-Nov-12
14-Oct-12
16-Sep-12
19-Aug-12
22-Jul-12
24-Jun-12
27-May-12
29-Apr-12
01-Apr-12
04-Mar-12
05-Feb-12
08-Jan-12
Share (Expenditure)
Iceland Share of Till Roll Grocers
Iceland Share of Till Roll Grocers
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Iceland
Household Income Signatures
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
£0 - £9999
pa
£10000 £19999 pa
£20000 £29999 pa
£30000 £39999 pa
£40000 £49999 pa
52 w/e Dec 07 2014
£50000 £59999 pa
£60000 £69999 pa
£70000 +
The Co-operative
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
Share (Expenditure)
Long-Term Share of Till Roll Grocers
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Waitrose
The Co-operative
Aldi + Lidl
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
Share (Expenditure)
Long-Term Share of Till Roll Grocers
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
08-Jan-12
M&S
M & S Baseline
Weekly 3 Point Centred Moving Average
07-Dec-14
09-Nov-14
12-Oct-14
14-Sep-14
17-Aug-14
20-Jul-14
22-Jun-14
25-May-14
27-Apr-14
30-Mar-14
02-Mar-14
02-Feb-14
05-Jan-14
08-Dec-13
10-Nov-13
13-Oct-13
15-Sep-13
18-Aug-13
21-Jul-13
23-Jun-13
26-May-13
28-Apr-13
31-Mar-13
03-Mar-13
03-Feb-13
06-Jan-13
09-Dec-12
11-Nov-12
14-Oct-12
16-Sep-12
19-Aug-12
22-Jul-12
24-Jun-12
27-May-12
29-Apr-12
01-Apr-12
04-Mar-12
05-Feb-12
Share (Expenditure)
M&S Share of Fresh & Chilled Groceries
8
7
6
5
4
Trended Loyalty Breakdown
Waitrose £%
20.2
27.6
52.2
21.1
24.3
54.6
19.9
25.4
54.7
M&S £%
19.3
25.9
54.8
20.8
44.5
43.6
43.0
42.0
40.3
41.3
39.8
40.2
39.9
40.6
14.8
15.1
17.2
17.8
19.8
25.0
54.3
14-Nov- 13-Nov- 11-Nov- 10-Nov- 09-Nov14-Nov- 13-Nov- 11-Nov- 10-Nov- 09-Nov10
11
12
13
14 52 w/e periods 10
11
12
13
14
High Loyal (>50%)
Medium Loyal (>20%)
Low Loyal (>0%)
“FOR TONIGHT” – SHOPPER MISSIONS % WITHIN OUTLET
Marks & Spencer
Sainsbury's Local
Budgens
The Co-operative
Tesco Express
Tesco Metro
Independents
2011
40
21
17
19
21
18
14
2012
40
21
18
19
20
18
15
2013
41
21
19
19
19
17
16
The Agenda
– External pressures
– The Squeeze
– The Effect
>
– Home Delivery
– Seeking Differentiation
– A role for Ethical Claims
– Beef Insights
Total Internet Grocery - Rolling 12 w/e growth
22
21
19
22
20
19
18
18
16
16
16
17
17
16
19
19
20
20
20
19
18
20
19
17
17
15
06- 03- 03- 31- 28- 26- 23- 21- 18- 15- 13- 10- 08- 05- 02- 02- 30- 27- 25- 22- 20- 17- 14- 12- 09- 07Jan- Feb- Mar- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13 13
13
13 13
13
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14 14
14
14 14
14
Total Grocery Internet
Lifestage Signatures
13
11
9
7
5
3
1
Pre-Family
-1
Young
Family 0-4
Years
Middle
Family 5-9
Years
Family 10+
Years
Older
Dependents
52 w/e Dec 07 2014
Empty
Nesters
Retired
Total Grocery Internet
Lifestage Signatures
13
11
9
7
5
3
1
Pre-Family
-1
Young
Family 0-4
Years
Middle
Family 5-9
Years
Family 10+
Years
Older
Dependents
52 w/e Dec 07 2014
Empty
Nesters
Retired
Total Grocery Internet
Lifestage Signatures
13
11
9
7
5
3
1
Pre-Family
-1
Young
Family 0-4
Years
Middle
Family 5-9
Years
Family 10+
Years
Older
Dependents
52 w/e Dec 07 2014
Empty
Nesters
Retired
Total Grocery Internet
Household Income Signatures
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
£0 - £9999
pa
£10000 £19999 pa
£20000 £29999 pa
£30000 £39999 pa
£40000 £49999 pa
52 w/e Dec 07 2014
£50000 £59999 pa
£60000 £69999 pa
£70000 +
Till Roll - Duplication by Tesco Internet Buyers
Sainsbury's Internet
8.0
Asda Internet
286
11.9
Waitrose Internet
259
5.9
Tesco
257
78.4
118
Waitrose
12.9
Sainsbury's
38.0
Asda
37.4
Morrisons
29.9
Brand Buyers also Buying
93
82
74
68
Duplication Index
12 w/e Dec 07 2014
Trading Index
Internet Delivery
Organic
197
Frozen
121
Household
117
Toiletries
103
Ambient Groceries
102
Fresh+Chilled
98
Alcohol
Healthcare
82
63
52 w/e Nov 09 2014
Chilled / Fresh
Frozen
Chilled / Fresh
Frozen
Trading Index
Internet Delivery
Fresh Poultry
116
Fresh Sausages
113
Fresh Beef
95
Fresh Bacon Rashers
95
Fresh Pork
86
Fresh Bacon Joint
86
Fresh Lamb
85
Fresh Fish
84
52 w/e Nov 09 2014
The Agenda
– External pressures
– The Squeeze
– The Effect
– Home Delivery
>
– Seeking Differentiation
– A role for Ethical Claims
– Beef Insights
In-store theatre
Own-label
Premium Own-Label Sales Trends
Latest 12-wk % Change
120
80
60
40
20
Tesco Finest
-12%
Sainsbury's Taste the Difference
+5%
Asda Extra Special
+6%
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
0
2003
Sales (Expenditure £m)
100
Morrisons Premium
+21%
The Agenda
– External pressures
– The Squeeze
– The Effect
– Home Delivery
– Seeking Differentiation
>
– A role for Ethical Claims
– Beef Insights
I regard myself as a connoisseur of food and wine
202
Waitrose
M&S
118
Sainsbury's
114
Lidl
109
Tesco
100
Aldi
94
The Co-operative
91
Morrisons
84
Asda
77
Bargain Stores
68
Independents
64
Farmfoods
64
Iceland
\
56
Outlet Share Index
52 w/e Aug 17 2014
I Consider That Price Is The Most Important Factor
W hen Buying A Product
Farmfoods
131
Iceland
121
Independents
119
Aldi
116
Asda
113
Bargain Stores
112
Lidl
110
Tesco
102
Morrisons
101
The Co-operative
93
Sainsbury's
M&S
Waitrose
86
66
65
Outlet Share Index
52 w/e Aug 17 2014
90
40
23-Oct-05
18-Dec-05
12-Feb-06
09-Apr-06
04-Jun-06
30-Jul-06
24-Sep-06
19-Nov-06
14-Jan-07
11-Mar-07
06-May-07
01-Jul-07
26-Aug-07
21-Oct-07
16-Dec-07
10-Feb-08
06-Apr-08
01-Jun-08
27-Jul-08
21-Sep-08
16-Nov-08
11-Jan-09
08-Mar-09
03-May-09
28-Jun-09
23-Aug-09
18-Oct-09
13-Dec-09
07-Feb-10
04-Apr-10
30-May-10
25-Jul-10
19-Sep-10
14-Nov-10
09-Jan-11
06-Mar-11
01-May-11
26-Jun-11
21-Aug-11
16-Oct-11
11-Dec-11
05-Feb-12
01-Apr-12
27-May-12
22-Jul-12
16-Sep-12
11-Nov-12
06-Jan-13
03-Mar-13
28-Apr-13
23-Jun-13
18-Aug-13
13-Oct-13
08-Dec-13
02-Feb-14
30-Mar-14
25-May-14
20-Jul-14
14-Sep-14
09-Nov-14
Fairtrade Prepacked Bananas Market Share
100
Sainsbury
80
70
60
50
Total Grocers
30
20
10
0
Fairtrade Shares
Sainsbury's
30
Tesco
20
The Co-operative
17
Morrisons
10
Waitrose
9
Asda
7
M&S
3
Lidl
1
Iceland
1
Independents
1
Aldi
1
Farm Foods
0
Share of Fairtrade - 52 w/e Nov 09 2014
60
14-Jan-07
11-Mar-07
06-May-07
01-Jul-07
26-Aug-07
21-Oct-07
16-Dec-07
10-Feb-08
06-Apr-08
01-Jun-08
27-Jul-08
21-Sep-08
16-Nov-08
11-Jan-09
08-Mar-09
03-May-09
28-Jun-09
23-Aug-09
18-Oct-09
13-Dec-09
07-Feb-10
04-Apr-10
30-May-10
25-Jul-10
19-Sep-10
14-Nov-10
09-Jan-11
06-Mar-11
01-May-11
26-Jun-11
21-Aug-11
16-Oct-11
11-Dec-11
05-Feb-12
01-Apr-12
27-May-12
22-Jul-12
16-Sep-12
11-Nov-12
06-Jan-13
03-Mar-13
28-Apr-13
23-Jun-13
18-Aug-13
13-Oct-13
08-Dec-13
02-Feb-14
30-Mar-14
25-May-14
20-Jul-14
14-Sep-14
09-Nov-14
Not-Caged Eggs Market Share
100
90
Sainsbury’s
80
70
Morrisons
Asda
50
Tesco
40
30
Total Organic Grocery Products including Baby - 4 weekly £m
100
80
60
40
20
0
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total Organic Market (inc. Baby) Rolling 52 week periods Y-on-Y Change %
7
7
6
5
6
6
6
5
5
4
3
3
1
0
-2
-2
-3
-4
-6 -6 -6 -6 -6
-7 -7 -7
-6
-5
-5
3
2
2
2
Organic Growth - £m - 52 w/e Nov 09 2014 v. year ago
18.4 Yoghurt
3.9
3.1
2.3
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
-0.6
-0.7
-0.8
-0.9
-1.2
-1.3
-1.7
-2.1
-2.4
-2.6
-3.1
-3.5
-4.5
Chilled Ready Meals
Eggs
Butter
Fruit
Fresh Beef
Fromage Frais
Fresh Poultry
Total Milk
Cooking Oils
Chilled Desserts
Chilled Dips
Crackers & Crispbreads
Ethnic Ingredients
Total Cheese
Ambient Soup
Ambient Rice+Svry Noodles
Artificial Sweeteners
Vinegar
Herbs+Spices
Nuts
Fresh Cream
Ambnt Fruit/Yght Juc+Drnk
Cereal+Fruit Bars
Flour
Cider
Dry Pasta
Fresh Lamb
Ambient Flavoured Milk
Frozen Beef
Peanut Butter
Chocolate Confectionery
Total Bread
Vegetables
What happens when low prices rule the supply chain
Impact of the Horsemeat Scandal - 52 w/e Dec 07 2014
Frozen Burgers
14
Chilled Ready Meals
5
Fresh Beef
3
Chilled Quorn
2
Frozen Quorn
2
Frozen Ready Meals
1
Fresh Poultry
-1
Frozen Poultry
-2
Fresh Pork
-3
Fresh Lamb
-3
Frozen Beef
-11
Frozen Pork
Frozen Lamb
-18
-24
% Chg y/y
0
14-Nov-10
12-Dec-10
09-Jan-11
06-Feb-11
06-Mar-11
03-Apr-11
01-May-11
29-May-11
26-Jun-11
24-Jul-11
21-Aug-11
18-Sep-11
16-Oct-11
13-Nov-11
11-Dec-11
08-Jan-12
05-Feb-12
04-Mar-12
01-Apr-12
29-Apr-12
27-May-12
24-Jun-12
22-Jul-12
19-Aug-12
16-Sep-12
14-Oct-12
11-Nov-12
09-Dec-12
06-Jan-13
03-Feb-13
03-Mar-13
31-Mar-13
28-Apr-13
26-May-13
23-Jun-13
21-Jul-13
18-Aug-13
15-Sep-13
13-Oct-13
10-Nov-13
08-Dec-13
05-Jan-14
02-Feb-14
02-Mar-14
30-Mar-14
27-Apr-14
25-May-14
22-Jun-14
20-Jul-14
17-Aug-14
14-Sep-14
12-Oct-14
09-Nov-14
Freedom Foods - 4 weekly sales - £m
20
15
10
5
Freedom Food Shares
Sainsbury's
72
The Co-operative
15
Tesco
7
M&S
4
Lidl
3
Asda
1
Morrisons
0
Aldi
0
Independents
0
Waitrose
0
Iceland
0
Farm Foods
0
Share of Freedom Food - 52 w/e Nov 09 2014
The Agenda
– External pressures
– The Squeeze
– The Effect
– Home Delivery
– Seeking Differentiation
– A role for Ethical Claims
>
– Beef Insights
Fresh Proteins - GB Value Sales
2500
2000
£ million
1500
Fresh Poultry
Fresh Beef
Fresh Fish
Fresh Pork
1000
Fresh Sausages
Fresh Lamb
500
0
* 52 w/e Nov 2014
Fresh Proteins - GB Volume Sales
500
450
400
350
Tonnes
300
Fresh Poultry
Fresh Beef
250
Fresh Pork
Fresh Sausages
200
Fresh Fish
Fresh Lamb
150
100
50
0
* 52 w/e Nov 2014
Total Fresh Beef Measure Tree
Measure
Spend (£000)
Vol ume (000 kg)
Penetrati on (%)
Frequency
Spend per Buyer (£)
Vol ume per Buyer (kg)
Spend per Tri p (£)
Vol ume per Tri p (kg)
Pri ce per kg (£)
52 w/e 08
Dec 13
2,034,038
270,997
85.02
15.87
90.90
12.11
5.73
0.76
7.51
52 w/e 07
Dec 14
2,107,009
267,939
84.91
15.83
93.37
11.87
5.90
0.75
7.86
Change
(Actual)
Change
(%)
+72,971
-3,058
-0.11
-0.04
+2.47
-0.24
+0.17
-0.01
+0.36
+3.6%
-1.1%
-0.1%
-0.2%
+2.7%
-2.0%
+3.0%
-1.7%
+4.8%
Value up 3.6% worth £73m
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
Spend (£000)
£2107m (+3.6%)
+£73m
Volume (000 kg)
Price per kg (£)
267.9m (-1.1%)
-£23.2m
£7.86 (+4.8%)
+£96.2m
Volume per Buyer (kg)
Penetration (%)
11.9 kg (-2%)
-£40.3m
84.9% (-0.1%)
+£17.1m
Frequency
Volume per Trip (kg)
15.8 trips (-0.2%)
-£4,719k
0.8 kg (-1.7%)
-£35.6m
* Penetration contribution
includes population growth of 1%
Fresh Beef - Rolling 52we Measure Tree
200,000
150,000
Contribution
100,000
50,000
0
-50,000
-100,000
-150,000
Frequency
Trip Volume (kg)
Price per kg
Penetration (%)
Total Contribution (£000s)
PROMOTIONAL MECHANICS CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH
Total Fresh Beef - Volume
4%
3%
Contribution to growth %pts
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
-6%
-7%
Full price
Price reduction
Multibuy
Y for £X
Market growth
Beef Trading Indices
Total Grocers
Tesco
Asda
Sainsbury's
Morrisons
Waitrose
The Co-operative
Iceland
Farm Foods
Aldi
Lidl
M&S
Independents
52 w/e 12
Dec 10
52 w/e 11
Dec 11
52 w/e 09
Dec 12
52 w/e 08
Dec 13
52 w/e 07
Dec 14
100
99
94
122
138
122
80
58
4
45
78
51
13
100
99
92
119
136
115
85
56
2
72
99
57
11
100
97
86
120
139
124
75
72
2
94
97
59
18
100
94
88
119
141
120
72
72
15
104
110
61
19
100
90
92
117
142
121
66
73
23
117
120
54
27
Beef Outlet Shares £%
52 w/e 12
Dec 10
52 w/e 11
Dec 11
52 w/e 09
Dec 12
52 w/e 08
Dec 13
52 w/e 07
Dec 14
Total Grocers
Tesco
Asda
Sainsbury's
Morrisons
Waitrose
The Co-operative
Iceland
Farmfoods
Aldi
Lidl
M&S
Independents
100
30.9
16.1
20.1
16.7
5.1
6.0
1.1
0.0
0.9
1.8
2.9
0.3
100
30.7
15.7
19.6
16.6
5.0
5.9
1.1
0.0
1.7
2.5
3.2
0.2
100
29.8
15.1
20.0
16.5
5.6
4.9
1.5
0.0
2.7
2.6
3.4
0.4
100
28.2
15.1
19.9
16.3
5.8
4.6
1.5
0.1
3.8
3.3
3.5
0.4
100
25.9
15.8
19.4
15.7
6.1
4.1
1.5
0.2
5.5
4.2
3.1
0.5
Costco
0.7
0.6
0.9
0.8
1.0
GROWTH:
Aldi +30%
Lidl +20%
Waitrose +6%
Tesco Finest -12%
Sainsbury’s TTD +5%
Branded Organic +8%
Internet +15%
edward.garner@kantarworldpanel.com
twitter edgarner