Pigmeat Performance & Prospects
Jan 2010
David Owens
Bord Bia
Agenda
Irish market trends
EU market trends
Current Market environment
International market trends
Weekly Irish export plant supplies
(head)
70,000
60,000
2009
2008
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Jan
Feb Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
6% or 149,000 head lower for the year
Nov Dec
Irish pig supplies (‘000 head)
- Finished Pigs
- Sows/Boars
Total Meat Plants
2008
2009
% Change
2,436
2,288
-6.1
75
76
+1.6
2,510
2,363
-5.9
457
482
+5.5
2,967
2,845
-4.1
Plus
- Finished pig exports
Total Disposals
Prospects for 2010 Irish supplies
•
Decline of 4% in 2009 less than expected
– Natural herd growth and lower mortality
•
Removed herds now returning
– All back by March 2010 supplies will increase by 9-11%
– Extra 5,000 pigs/week
•
Rest of herd also expanding
EU breeding herd
(sows in-pig)
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
EU : 0.5% decline
EU supplies
Q1
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
2006
Source: EU Commission
2007
Q2
Q3
2008
Q4
2009
2009 : 2.5% decline
Jan – June 2010 : 0.3% decline
2010
Irish price trends
180
160
140
120
2008
2009
100
80
60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Irish pig prices 9% lower in 2009
EU prices 7% lower
EU pigmeat exports
Jan to Sept ‘09 vs ‘08
‘000 tonnes
2,300
2,100
-16%
1,900
•
Record levels achieved in 2008
•
Total fall (meat + offal’s) of 16% for Jan Sept in 2009
– Weak international demand
– Export refunds in 2008
– Currency fluctuations
– Competitive North American product
•
Meat exports down 27%
•
Fats/offal’s only 7% lower
•
70 % Increase in live pig trade
1,700
1,500
1,300
1,100
900
700
500
Jan - Sept '08
Source: EU Commission
Jan - Sept '09
Ireland consumption
trends
8
volume
6
Fall in retail prices
4
2
0
-2
-4
Total Meat
Pork
st
Source: TNS 52 w/e 1 Nov 2009
Sausages
Bacon
Cooked
ham
value
Depressed EU market 2009
•
Decline in production and prices
– Fall in demand within EU and in International markets
•
Some recent stabilisation evident in certain markets
•
Modest decline / static EU consumption
– Economic difficulties
– DE, FR and ES decline
– UK increase
2010 EU market prospects
•
EU 2009 piglet production at lowest level since 2000
– Major falls in Benelux, Germany and Spain
– Pig cycle expected to ‘bottom out’ in 2010 as piglet prices at
highest level in 3 years
•
Marginal increase in production 2010, in particular in UK and DK
•
Likely consumption to recover helped by improving economies
•
EU exports expected to recover some in 2010
•
Prices?
Global trends
Globally - 10% decline in world trade
– Consumption growth in 2009, due to China
– Impact of H1N1 in certain markets
Russia – 33% decline in 2009 imports
– Increased domestic production
– Little change expected in 2010 imports
– Live imports are increasing strongly (DK & PO)
– Increased food prices due to low supplies resulted in lower consumption
Japan – 13% decline in 2009 imports
– No change forecast for 2010, domestic production to fall
– High stocks affecting wholesale market prices
China – imports 65% lower in 2009
– Production (50 m tonnes) and consumption increased in 2009
– Increased competition from EU supplies as Spain, UK and Germany now
approved
In summary…
2009…
Decline in EU production
Stabilising herd
Depressed markets
Irish export markets recovered
Domestic market relatively ‘strong’ but under price pressure
2010….
Irish supplies to increase
Re-open Russia and Chinese markets
Steady to small recovery in EU production
Recovery in Continental and International demand
Price forecast?
Pigmeat Performance & Prospects
Jan 2010