The changing State of the Nation
Mark Thomson – Strategic Insight Director
26th February 2009
The State of the Nation
1. Life is not
so easy in
2009
6. Summary
2. Changing
priorities
5. New
opportunities
Agenda
3. Impact on
key occasions
4. Has health
gone away?
Life is not so easy in 2009
Job insecurity
Falling house prices
Rising energy bills
What’s for dinner?
GfK Group
Consumer Tracking
How to Survive 2009 - Lucien van der Hoeven
February 2009
Top of Mind 2008
Collective knowledge
Brand Manufacturers:
Retailers:
1. Corporate Responsibility
1. Corporate Responsibility
(á 8)
2. Consumer Health and Nutrition
3. Retailer-Supplier Relations
(á 3)
(á 6)
3. Consumer Health and Nutrition
(â 1)
(á 11)
4. Technology / Supply Chain
(â 1)
(á 5)
5. The Economy / Consumer Demand
(á 9)
6. Human Resources
6. The Retail/Brand Offer
(á 10)
7. Technology / Supply Chain
8. Internationalisation
7. Human Resources
(â 3)
8. Competition
(â 6)
9. The Retail/Brand Offer
10. Competition
2. Food Safety
(à2)
4. The Economy & Consumer Demand
5. Food Safety
6
Source = Cies – The Food Business Forum – Top of Mind 2008
(â 4)
(à 8)
10. Retailer-Supplier Relations
(â 4)
11. Customer Loyalty and Marketing
(â 2)
9. Customer Loyalty and Marketing
(â 5)
(â 7)
(á 10)
11. Internationalisation
(à 11)
(â 7)
(à 9)
Consumers generally enter the store
with occasion based problems.
“I want something healthy”
“Friends are coming round”
“I fancy indulging myself”
“I don’t have time to cook
tonight, it has to be easy”
“What can I give the kids in
their Lunchbox”
Motives that equal cost are starting to stall
A more austere and cautious consumer?
Millions of occasions consumed for Indulgence
6400
6200
6000
5800
5600
5400
5200
5000
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
m/e m/e m/e m/e m/e m/e m/e
m/e m/e m/e m/e m/e m/e m/e
Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov
2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2008
The State of the Nation
1. Life is not
so easy in
2009
6. Summary
2. Changing
priorities
5. New
opportunities
Agenda
3. Impact on
key occasions
4. Has health
gone away?
’91 Recession Impact:
Spend less
eating in
Half of us said we would spend
less eating out
24%
Spend less
eating out
’91 Recession Impact:
50%
1 in 4 said they would
tighten the budget in home
TNS WorldPanel Usage
% Agreeing
Source: TNS FFP Recession Report 1991
What about now? The same results as in the last
recession. Eating out get’s hit first and eating in is well
down the list….
“If you were now forced to, which items
would you actually cut back spending
on ?”
20.3
18.5
1st choice
2nd choice
19.9
17
12.5
10.7
10.5
10.3
11.3
12.4
8.8
6.7
5.5
3.8
4.1
4.9
6.8
5.4
3.5
3.1
3
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Worldpanel on-line questioning
Source: TNS Worldpanel On line Interviews
Thinking of going to the Mediterranean
this summer?
What about the Isle of Harris?
“The economic downturn WILL
impact on holiday plans”
TNS Travel and Tourism Omnibus Survey 2008 (2,000 adults across GB)
Those agreeing
Feb 2008 – 7%
July 2008 – 19%
January 2009 – 33%
And the cost of going to the pub just keeps on
growing ….
… Assuming you can find one
that is open
Concerns about
recession are
causing 35% of
on trade visitors
to go out less
often and 41% to
spend less when
they do.
Source: TNS Alcovision
Base:
All respondents from June 2008 (300)
Retailers now trusted more than Banks, due to
perceived better response to Economic downturn
% of people who
have no trust in…..
25
Source: McCann Erickson's
Moodier Britain survey
Received Friday 28th Nov 2008
6
Banks
Supermarkets
What is more interesting about Tesco at present is
a willingness to push at new frontiers.
The decision to wrestle full control of the Tesco
bank from its partner Royal Bank of Scotland
suggests a major push into consumer banking at a
time when trust in the high street banks is at a low
ebb.
Daily Mail 3rd December
Fastest GROWTH
2008 vs 2007 (% change)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Q31 Support regional producers
Q28 Buy same so little thought
Q9 Level headed shopper
Q10 Look for healthy products
Q16 Price most imp factor
Q7 Adverts help find prd avail.
Q6 Find out abt new prods on TV
Q3 Family meals eaten at table
Q33 Choose local if I could
Q15 Stick to shopping list
•British-ness
•Habit/routine
•Price
•Health
•Formality (table)
•Control
Change vs 07
Fastest DECLINES
2008 vs 2007 (% change)
-4
-3.5
-3
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
Q2 Organic healthier
•Organic
•Convenience
•Shopping fun
•GM concern
•Fairtrade
Q37 More aware of good foods
Q46 GDA information useful
Q14 I am a good cook
Q32 Rely on convenience prods
Q49 Wheel of health good
Q17 Find shopping fun
Q29 Avoid GM Foods
Q22 Organic better for envirmnt.
Q30 Should buy more Fairtrade
0
The State of the Nation
1. Life is not
so easy in
2009
6. Summary
2. Changing
priorities
5. New
opportunities
Agenda
3. Impact on
key occasions
4. Has health
gone away?
Price inflation has a direct knock on effect
with the meal occasion.
Price
inflation
The
fixture
The
shopper
The meal
occasion
There are several ways in which shoppers can reduce
spend
I need to
reduce spend!
Buy less
categories
Trading Down
Retailers
Buy on
Offer
Spending
less Money
Trade down
price tiers
What impact has this had on the meal occasion?
I need to
reduce spend!
Eat less
often
Consume
more staples
Fewer
treats
Plan ahead
more
Cook more
from scratch
Use leftovers
So how are consumers cutting back?
Eat less
often
No
Consume
more staples
Yes
Fewer
treats
Yes
Cook more
from scratch
Yes
Use leftovers
Yes
The State of the Nation
1. Life is not
so easy in
2009
6. Summary
2. Changing
priorities
5. New
opportunities
Agenda
3. Impact on
key occasions
4. Has health
gone away?
Recent headlines emphasising health benefits,
relaunch of superfoods?
So what is the main difference to the last recession in
the early 1990’s?
Prevalence of obesity (BMI > 30) in UK women 1994 - 2002
Tackling Obesities: Future Choices http://www.foresight.gov.uk 2007
They say dog’s
often mirror their
owners!
Despite reduced levels of dieting overweight concern is high
and growing (but only on in three overweight show concern)
18
17.8
Overweight concern
17.6
17.4
17.2
17
16.8
16.6
16.4
16.2
6 m/e Nov 2006
6 m/e Nov 2007
6 m/e Nov 2008
Dieting on the slide (yet overweight concern growing)
20
Been on diets in past 12 months
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
6 m/e Nov 2005 6 m/e Nov 2006 6 m/e Nov 2007 6 m/e Nov 2008
Less salt, more fibre and less Sats. Things looking
better?
% Change
in Spend
Y on Y to September ‘08
% Change
in Spend
Y on Y to March ‘08
Energy kcal
0.4
Protein Kg
0.5
Fibre Kg
0.8
0.4
Carbohydrate Kg
2.1
0.2
Sugars Kg
1.8
0.5
Fat Kg
1.3
0.8
Saturates Kg
Sodium Kg
1.6
0.9
0.6
-1.0
0.3
-1.0
TNS WorldPanel Nutritional Database
Kids are the fastest growing group of consumers to
adopt 5 a day
12 m/e Aug 2005
2.5
12 m/e Aug 2006
12 m/e Aug 2008
2.9
2.7 2.8 2.8
2.7
2.6 2.6
2.2
Total
12 m/e Aug 2007
2.3
2.4
Children
2.5
2.4
2.5 2.5 2.5
Adult Males
Average number of fruit & veg portions consumed per day
TNS WorldPanel Usage
Adult Females
The State of the Nation
1. Life is not
so easy in
2009
6. Summary
2. Changing
priorities
5. New
opportunities
Agenda
3. Impact on
key occasions
4. Has health
gone away?
In Home focus
Comforting
Familiarity
Filling
Entertaining
Food mileage
Still on the radar
Health
Home
cooking
Kids
Values
Replicating
out of home
treats will be
an area of
opportunity in
2009.
1
Roast Dinner
2
Pizza
3
Sandwiches
4
Fish & Chips
5
Stew/Casserole
6
Pie & Mash
7
Spaghetti Bolognese
8
Soup – as a meal
9
Lasagne
10
Shepherd’s Pies
The Top
10
List is Main Evening Meals,
Takeaway not included. Homemade
& Manufactured Meals
Social/Entertaining occasions have
grown by 14% over the last year.
+178 million occasions
64% of these
occasions
occur at the
weekend
So what are people consuming at these occasions?
Younger Adults
Food
Kids
Male
Unisex
Female
Less of this
Drink
More of this
TNS WorldPanel Usage
52 W/e November 2008
Index – Consumers Groups versus All Consumers
Food and Drink security, a big theme in 2009
Can you stretch, or increase depth
Breakfast
Lunchtime
Teatime
Evening meal
Giving consumers ideas to eat your product every
day, or ideas to use your product as a cooking
component.
Food and drink remains important but our needs
around it ARE changing
Consumers now looking for familiar meal centres
and food security
Social entertaining becomes even more important
as Out of Home meals decline
Health will not go away, but does not command
the same share of mind as it did in 2007.
Home cooking continues to grow, as well as
making food go further within the home
Regional/local theme from 2007 still evident
Mark.thomson@tns-global.com
Tel: 07943 811715