Food & Drinks Industry Day UK Market Overview 27th November 2008 Economic Outlook • The UK is the 2nd largest economy in the EU after France • A key determinant for consumer spending will be the direction of interest rates. The Bank of England (independent from governmental control) targets to maintain inflation below 2%, and uses interest rates as a lever to achieve this. Interest rates are on a downward trend, with further cuts expected over the coming months. • Consumer confidence is at historically low levels, largely due to the global financial crisis. Many banks have been part-nationalised, and unemployment is rising steadily. However, oil prices have fallen sharply, now averaging around $65 per barrel. UK Statistics National Data – Population: 60.94m – Number of Households: 24.9m – Population Density: 249/km The Economy – Real GDP Growth: €2,543bn – GDP per Head: €41,850 – Inflation: 3.7% (CPI) – Unemployment: 5.5% – Grocery Market Value: €176.1bn Exchange Rate – €1 = £0.84 (18.11.08) Source: http://www.statistics.gov.uk Demographics Population Forecast (000’s) Population Split by Age, 2008e (%) 70,000 67,013 64,727 65,000 16 16.9 61,892 60,000 59,835 58,789 67.1 65+ 55,000 15-64 0-14 50,000 2001 2004 2011 2021 2031 Sources: Office for National Statistics, 2008, CIA World Factbook; IGD 2008 Demography: 10 most populated regions Region Capital Population Population / hectare % Total Population Greater London urban area London 8,278,251 50.99 14.1 West Midlands urban area Birmingham 2,284,093 38.09 3.9 Greater Manchester urban area Manchester 2,244,931 40.20 3.8 Glasgow 1,749,154 40.60 3.0 Leeds/Bradford 1,499,465 40.52 2.6 Tyneside Newcastle 879,996 41.72 1.5 Liverpool urban area Liverpool 816,216 43.84 1.4 Nottingham 666,358 42.04 1.1 Sheffield 640,720 39.49 1.1 Bristol 551,066 39.42 0.9 Glasgow urban area West Yorkshire urban area Nottingham urban area Sheffield urban area Bristol urban area Source: Office for National Statistics, 2004 (from 2001 census survey) UK Economic Overview 2005 2006 2007 2008e 1,792.89 1,892.23 2,016.32 2,099.80 1.8 2.8 2.9 1.4 29,767 31,220 33,180 34,536 Unemployment (%) 2.80 2.60 2.50 2.40 Food Price Inflation (%) 1.59 2.49 4.41 8.6 Consumer Price Inflation (%) 2.09 2.33 2.27 3.7 GDP (Nominal £bn) Real GDP Growth (%) GDP (Nominal) per Capita (£) UK & Ireland Trade 2007 Total Irish Food & Drink exports €8.6bn Total Irish exports to UK €3.95bn → 42% total → Ireland is UK’s No 2 supplier of food & drink Total UK exports to Ireland €2.7bn → Ireland is UK’s No 1 export market for food & drink Irish Exports to GB & NI 2006 vs. 2007 1,400.00 2006 2007 1,200.00 1,000.00 800.00 €m 600.00 400.00 200.00 0.00 Meat Beverages Dairy Misc Live Fruit & CerealsCoffee, Tea Sugar AnimalsVegetables etc Food Category Fish Retail Grocery Market Overview TNS Grocery Market Share % by retailer % 0 5 10 15 20 Total Tesco 14.7 Total Asda 14.2 Total Morrisons 10.8 Total Co-Op 3.7 Total Waitrose 3.6 Somerfield 3.3 Marks & Spencer 3.2 Aldi 2.1 Lidl 2 Total Iceland 1.8 Total Independents & Symbols 1.8 Total Retailer Share Track Expenditure Share % 0.6 52 w/e 07 Oct 07 Source: TNS Oct 2008 30 27.5 Total Sainsbury's Netto 25 52 w/e 05 Oct 08 Grocery Sector Performance Total Toiletries 6% Total Household 8% Total Alcohol 11% 5.7 Total RST Total Alcohol Total Healthcare 2% Total Frozen 6% Total Ambient Groceries 27% 3.9 Total Ambient Groceries 6.3 Total Fresh+Chilled 7.0 5.2 Total Frozen Total -1.3 Healthcare Total Household Total Fresh+Chilled 40% Total Toiletries RST – Trading & Performance - 52w/e 5th October 2008 Source: TNS Oct 2008 3.0 4.3 Key Retail trends Strong Value Focus Emerging •Retailers with strong value for money credentials are winning in the current challenging trading environment. •Aldi and Lidl, continue to grow sales strongly, while M&S and Waitrose have experienced declining like-for-like sales. •Reports suggest that Tesco is to cut its sales growth guidance for the UK for the first time in years as the economy heads towards recession. According to City analysts Shore Capital, the largest grocery retailer in the UK is budgeting for like-for-like sales growth of about 2%, which is lower than a normal forecast. Trading Down to Budget Stores •Cost-conscious consumers are giving up luxuries and trading down to budget stores •More than 40% of shoppers have switched to cheaper brands. •Two-thirds more shoppers are looking out for promotions. •A third of shoppers are spending more time in the supermarket comparing prices. •31% of adults say they are visiting discounters more often than they did 12 months ago. Switch to Own Label •Three in ten shoppers have made the switch from famous brands to own label •Average shopping basket now holds 23% own label products. •Almost two in three shoppers are more likely than ever to buy own label and just 3% say they never do. Store ‘Price index’ vs Sales performance 12 weekly RST sales growth 20 Top performing retailers are those with the lower price index 15 10 5 0 -5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 Price Index Price Index based on retailer price compared to market average across all RST markets Source: TNS Nov 2008 1.9 Private Label Tiered Performance • Private label ranges have gained greater prominence in-store – a trend likely to continue for the year ahead. • Budget PL ranges have become a key strategic lever for retailers to demonstrate value for money credentials. • There has also been evidence of ‘trading down’ within the Private Label tiers – as can be seen below R o llin g 1 2 w /e % c h a n g e 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 12 W/e 08 12 W/e 03 12 W/e 28 12 W/e 25 12 W/e 20 12 W/e 15 12 W/e 09 12 W/e 04 12 W/e 30 12 W/e 24 12 W/e 20 12 W/e 15 Oct 06 Dec 06 Jan 07 Mar 07 May 07 Jul 07 Sep 07 Nov 07 Dec 07 Feb 08 Apr 08 Jun 08 Branded Premium PL Standard PL Budget PL Impact of the Credit Crunch ‘How would you cut back on spending?’ How do the panel claim that they would change? 20.3 19.9 1st choice 18.5 2nd choice 17.0 12.5 12.4 10.7 11.3 10.310.5 8.8 6.8 6.7 4.1 5.4 4.9 3.5 3.1 3.0 Source: TNS Oct 2008 Health / Personal Care Transport / Petrol Food & drink Housing/ household bills Leisure facilities Mobile phone Music Entertainment SkyTV Alcohol & Tobacco Clothing & Footwear Eating out 0.8 If families are on a tighter budget, what areas ‘in home’ would we expect to grow? Households with Kids – 3 m/e Spring 2008 vs. 3 m/e Spring 2007 Takeaway Consumption Social Occasions Visitor Occasions +3% +40% +23% Data: TNS Worldpanel Usage – In Home Consumption12 m/e May 2008 Rising Grocery Prices Overall Grocery Impact…. …..price paid beginning to lag further behind true inflation levels… So we are starting to make some changes….. 10 Inflation Observed Price/Pack Growth Rate 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 M /e W 12 12 W /e 25 28 Source: TNS Oct 2008 ar 07 20 M 12 ay W 07 /e 1 12 5 Ju W l0 /e 7 09 12 Se W p /e 07 04 12 N ov W /e 07 30 12 D ec W /e 07 24 12 Fe W b /e 08 20 12 A W pr /e 08 15 12 Ju W n /e 08 10 A ug 08 07 Ja n 06 ec D W /e 03 12 W /e 12 12 W /e 08 O ct 06 0 12 weekly growth in Packs by price band The ‘Budget’ price band sees greatest growth rate this year – signs of shoppers trading down… 6 Switch to Cheaper products? 5 3 4 3 2 0 -2 -4 -4 -6 -8 -10 -10 -12 Budget Source: TNS Oct 2008 Standard Good Premium Super Premium The stores in highest growth in the last 12 weeks are those with the lowest Price Index… Store ‘Price index’ vs Sales performance 12 weekly RST sales growth 30 Price Index based on retailer price compared to market average across all RST markets 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 0.7 Source: TNS Oct 2008 0.9 1.1 1.3 Price Index 1.5 1.7 1.9 Switching cascades down the hierarchy as each tier flows to every tier below. An implied price/value ranking Premium Own Label No Brand Name Branded Standard Own Label Value Own Label Source: TNS Oct 2008 Line width is size of the switch Bubble size is the total growth of the tier Five Year Outlook for UK Grocery Market • Economic turmoil: The credit crunch will continue to impact consumer confidence over the coming years with leading economic experts predicting a turnaround in 2010. • Food Inflation: While levels may have reached a peak food inflation is set to remain a pervasive market influence over the next five years driven by global demand and supply factors. • Fuel and Energy: will continue to trend upwards in the medium to long term due to our dependence on fossil fuels. • The Value Imperative: Value will continue to assume an even greater role as disposable income shrinks, weakening consumer confidence pushes price up the agenda. • Retail Consolidation: Realisation of the Co-op acquisition of Somerfield. Bord Bia Britain Retail Programme Offer 2009 UK Retail Services Offer • Gap & Category Analysis • Product Concept Check / Lead Generation • Market Study Visits / Accompanied shops • Bespoke Research • Store Audits / Product Retrieval • Brand Projects • PR / Promotion • Distributor Search • Media Monitoring Retail Intelligence Programme Providing Irish companies with up-to-date and relevant market information on the UK retail market. Purpose: With such a volatile retail market this programme aims to keep Irish companies abreast of relevant changes in the UK retail environment. Content includes: Ø Daily Media Report:: summarising all food and drink related articles in the following publications: The Times, The Independent, The Financial Times, The Guardian, The Daily Telegraph, The Daily Mail and The Daily Express. Ø Monthly Retail Report: The latest 12 weeks ending TNS Worldpanel grocery market share figures, published monthly with commentary and data on top line grocery market performance. Each week a ‘focus on…’ section is included (for example Impact of the credit crunch on Grocery retailing). Ø 1st tier retailer reports published in August 2009: Extensive profiles of the multiple grocers in the UK with details of their trading strategy, key financials, supply chain, customer profile, price and promotional strategy etc. Also included is an overview of their buying structure with key buyer contact details included. Ø 2nd tier retailer reports published in January 2009: Extensive profiles of the convenience multiples, discounters, retail buying groups and retail cash & carry business in the UK. The report outlines company background, turnover, range, marketing & promotional activity, distribution systems and buying structure with key contacts and advice to new suppliers approaching any of these retailers. Ø Key Account Trading Statements; Interim and annual trading statements from key UK retailers Costs: €800 exclusive of VAT @ 21.5% UK Retail Intelligence Programme HOW TO BOOK Fax: completed form to: 00 44 20 7278 7193 Email: michelle.butler@bordbia.ie Post: completed form & payment to: Bord Bia, Clanwilliam Court, Lower Mount Street, Dublin 2 Reference: UK Retail Intelligence Programme UK Retail Intelligence Programme Booking Form Contact Name ____________________________________ Company Name ____________________________________ Address ____________________________________ ____________________________________ Email ____________________________________ Cost €800 + €172 (VAT) = €972 Reference UK Retail Intelligence Programme Signature ____________________________________ Retail EXCEL Programme Programme assisting the generation of business leads and incremental incremental sales in UK retail for Irish client companies Purpose: Under the expert guidance of two UK retail mentors companies will gain a comprehensive understanding of the UK retail market and their product suitability within this market. Key objectives and targets will be set for each company in respect of key opportunities identified for their business in the UK retail market. Content includes: Ø Full subscription to Retail Intelligence Programme Ø 5 full day workshops Ø 1 UK Market Study Visit Ø 2x 2 hour one to one with retail expert Ø 1 UK Retail State of the Nation/Currency Seminar Workshop Facilitators: Ø Adrian Rivers – former buyer Sainsbury’s and Shell UK Ø Annette Peters – former product developer M&S Costs Ø €2,625 exclusive of VAT @ 21.5% Retail EXCEL Programme Programme assisting the generation of business leads and incremental sales in UK retail for Irish client companies Programme Timings Workshop 1 Understanding UK Retail Market & Market Study Visit London 15th & 16th January One – to Ones UK Retail One to Ones – Objective setting, 1 Page supplier forms Dublin 5th or 6th February Seminar UK Retail State of the Nation/Currency seminar Dublin 26th February Workshop 2 Key Account Management Dublin 19th March Workshop 3 Route to Market Planning Dublin 23rd or 24th April Workshop 4 Successful Negotiations, Pricing & Business Planning Dublin 4th & 5th June One – to Ones Excel end of Programme review Dublin 3rd or 17th July Workshop 5 Managing a Tender Process Dublin 2nd July UK Retail Excel Programme HOW TO BOOK Fax: completed form to: 00 44 20 7278 7193 Email: michelle.butler@bordbia.ie Post: completed form & payment to: Bord Bia, Clanwilliam Court, Lower Mount Street, Dublin 2 Reference: UK Retail Excel Programme UK Retail Excel Programme Booking Form Contact Name ____________________________________ Company Name ____________________________________ Address ____________________________________ ____________________________________ Email ____________________________________ Cost €2,625 + €564.38 (VAT) = €3189.38 Reference UK Retail Excel Programme Signature ____________________________________ UK Foodservice Market Irish market vs. UK Foodservice market UK • • • • • • • 60 million Group Purchasing Controlled Menus 6-7oz Portion size Higher taste profiles Formal Sales process Sterling IRISH • • • • • • • 6 million More ‘Independence’ More flexibility More generous portions Milder taste profiles Informal Sales process Euro Foodservice vs. Retail RETAIL • • • • • • • • • Impersonal Consumer buy Brands Large Turnover Fewer Buying Points Simple Supply Chain Mass market Big deals Short-term results Long production runs FOODSERVICE • • • • • • • • • Personable, hospitable Caterers buy ‘service’ Smaller turnover Many buying points ‘Wholesale’ supply More bespoke market One step at a time Long-term investment Short production runs Foodservice includes: Fast Facts on UK Foodservice Restaurants Quick Service Pubs & Bars Hotels Leisure Staff Catering Health Care Education Public Sector TOTAL No. of Outlets Million Meals 40,513 55,195 70,494 17,394 20,287 20,874 23,207 34,374 2,671 285,009 680 1,873 1,062 480 598 1,080 1,042 1,196 228 8,239 Food Purchases £ mill 1,328 1,954 1,105 613 570 927 596 610 150 7,853 Food Sales £ mill 4,557 6,030 3,186 2,976 2,072 927 596 610 150 21,105 • 280,000 + outlets • No player with more than 5% • 90% of businesses t/o less than £250k • Groups = 45% of meals • 67% via Wholesalers • 8% via Cash & Carry • Direct & Vending 25% Out of Home – Profit Sector Accomodation Drinks Places Restaurants Managed Catering Quick Service Travel Visitor Attractions Venues Sports & Recreation Hotels Pubs Restaurants Contract caterers Cafes On Board Services Art Galleries Conference Skating and Ski Guest Houses Bars/Wine Bars Gastro Pubs Facilities Mngt Coffee Shops Ferries/Cruise Zoos & Aquariums Exhibition Hall Karting & Motor Sports Holiday Camps Nightclubs Ethnic/Oriental Workplace Takeaways Forecourts Theme Parks Stadia Swimming Pools Hostels Private Members Pizza & Pasta Event & Function Fish & Chips Roadside Eatlng Parks and Gardens Training Centres Waterparks Caravan Parks Party Venues Mobile Caterers Sandwich Bars Airports/Airlines Museums Shopping Centre Bowling Centres Camp Sites Social Clubs Central Production Kiosks Other travel Attractions Health Clubs Contract Cleaning Other QSR Amusement Parks Golf Courses Children's Activity Sports Clubs Theatres Football Clubs Other catering Cinemas 5*, 4*, 3* Freehouse By Menu type With restaurant Managed Fine Dining With conference Tenanted Instore No of employees on site Casino Other attractions Garden Centres With retail outlet Footfall/No of vistitors • • 2,500+ Groups account for 45% of the market. 240,000 sites + Independents make up the balance. Out of Home - Cost Sector • Traditionally defined as ‘sectors simply recovering the cost of food & drink provision’. Understanding the Supply Chain • WILL be a Critical Success Factor • WILL govern your speed of Market Penetration. • WILL cost you: – Time – Money – Patience!! • IS HUGELY DIFFERENT TO RETAIL. Supply Chain Decisions • KEY DECISIONS ON: – WHICH BUSINESSES to approach? – WHAT to offer? • CUSTOMER-LED Decisions: – WILL I buy from this new ‘entrant’? – WILL I do ‘better’ than current arrangements? • Business to Business relationship: – Caterer or Wholesaler makes decision ‘on behalf of his Customers’. – Consumer does have an increasing impact. UK Foodservice – Structure Manufacturers Contract Distributors Catering Groups Delivered Wholesalers Cash & Carry Wholesalers Independent Caterers Wholesale Targets: Cash & Carry • Few Groups to target • Simple to service: – Head Office Listings. – Pallets to CD or Branch • Simple Pricing Structures • All developing DELIVERED capability • Costs of Doing Business: – Listing Fee – Promotion Support. – ORD Wholesale Targets: Multi-Temp Delivery • Core Ambient service – ‘Larder’ provisions • All adding Frozen & Chilled – Gives ‘One-Stop Shop’ capability • National service dominated by 3663 & Brakes • Country Range group now No. 3 • 100+ Regionals available. Wholesale Targets: Frozen & Chilled • Frozen sales in Decline: – Chips – Peas – Prawns • Chilled in strong Growth • Traditional Frozen Wholesalers moving into Chilled & Ambient • Slow to react to the initiatives by 3663 & Brakes Bord Bia Britain Foodservice Programme Offer 2009 Foodservice Market Intelligence Programme • Aim: To provide Irish companies with up-to-date and relevant market information on the UK foodservice market • Suitable for: Companies interested in the UK foodservice market either because they are currently doing business in the UK or are contemplating market entry in the future. Content: Ø Weekly UK Foodservice Newsletter: reviewing all foodservice news, consumer trend and industry events that allows you to keep up-to-date with what is happening in the market. Information gathered from trade titles such as Caterer& Hotelkeeper, Publican, ProWholesaler, Sandwich & Snack News Ø Operators Directory: annually updated profiles of 150 major profit and cost sector operators including QSR, FSR, travel, & leisure, pub restaurants and contract caterers. Ø Distributors Directory: annually updated profiles of over 110 distributors and cash & carries. Profiles include info on company size, geographical spread and buyer contact details as well as buying policy. Also includes details of logistic companies, catering butchers and regional wholesalers. Ø Meet the Buyer Morning: in-depth presentation from a leading operator detailing progress on their business, trends they are experiencing, threats facing the business and opportunities for suppliers Ø Menurama: is a comprehensive menu database covering latest food offer from all major national chains. New for 2009 is the Menurama report published twice yearly detailing highlights of the database and pricing of menu items. Ø Daily Media Report: summarising all food and drink related articles in the following publications: The Times, The Independent, The Financial Times, The Guardian, The Daily Telegraph, The Daily Mail and The Daily Express. Ø Trading Statements: interim and annual trading statements from key foodservice UK operators outlining the state of their business, success over period and strategy for future. Cost: €800 exclusive of VAT @ 21.5% UK Foodservice Market Intelligence Programme How to book Fax: completed form to: 00 44 20 7278 7193 Email: aoife.wycherley@bordbia.ie Post: completed form & payment to: Bord Bia, Clanwilliam Court, Lower Mount Street, Dublin 2 Reference: UK Foodservice Market Intelligence Programme UK Foodservice Market Intelligence Programme Booking Form Contact Name ____________________________________ Company Name ____________________________________ Address ____________________________________ ____________________________________ Email ____________________________________ Cost €800 + €172 (VAT) = €972 Reference UK Foodservice Market Intelligence Programme Signature ____________________________________ Foodservice Market Entry Programme Ø Ø Aim: To support Irish companies in the planning and execution of their UK market entry strategy Suitable for: Irish suppliers who are currently supplying foodservice in the domestic market, have no presence in the UK but have an objective of entering the UK Foodservice market in the near future Ø Content: Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Output: Ø Ø Ø Finalised Market Entry Strategy Identification of three suitable UK Foodservice targets for your company and products Facilitators: Ø Ø Ø Full subscription to Foodservice Market Intelligence Programme 2 full day workshops 1 x 2 hour one to one with market expert 1 Meet the Buyer Event 1 UK Market Study Visit Terry Cook – Purchasing Consultant for Charlton House Simon Peat – Former Managing Director Dewberry Redpoint Costs Ø €1,850 exclusive of VAT @ 21.5% UK Foodservice Market Entry Programme How to book Fax: completed form to: 00 44 20 7278 7193 Email: aoife.wycherley@bordbia.ie Post: completed form & payment to: Bord Bia, Clanwilliam Court, Lower Mount Street, Dublin 2 Reference: UK Foodservice Market Entry Programme UK Foodservice Market Entry Programme Booking Form Contact Name ____________________________________ Company Name ____________________________________ Address ____________________________________ ____________________________________ Email ____________________________________ Cost €1,850 + €397.75 (VAT) = €2,247.75 Reference UK Foodservice Market Entry Programme Signature ____________________________________ Foodservice Market Development Programme Ø Aim: To forge strong relationships with key foodservice contacts on behalf of programme members with ultimate aim of driving sales through new listings and distribution gains Ø Suitable for: Irish suppliers who have at least one active account in the UK foodservice market and are looking to build and add value to their business Ø Content: Ø Full subscription to Foodservice Market Intelligence Programme Ø 30 Buyer Presentations – Company introduced and report circulated after meeting Ø Meet the Buyer Morning Ø Meet the Development Chef Event Ø PR Development Ø 1 UK Market Study Visit Ø 1 x 2 hour one to one with market expert Ø Output: Ø Introductions to at least 2 foodservice contacts to generate listings and/or drive incremental sales Ø Facilitators: Ø Terry Cook – Purchasing Consultant for Charlton House Ø Simon Peat – Former Managing Director Dewberry Redpoint Ø Costs Ø €3,750 exclusive of VAT @ 21.5% UK Foodservice Market Development Programme How to book Fax: completed form to: 00 44 20 7278 7193 Email: aoife.wycherley@bordbia.ie Post: completed form & payment to: Bord Bia, Clanwilliam Court, Lower Mount Street, Dublin 2 Reference: UK Foodservice Market Development Programme UK Foodservice Market Development Programme Booking Form Contact Name ____________________________________ Company Name ____________________________________ Address ____________________________________ ____________________________________ Email ____________________________________ Cost €3,750 + €806.25 (VAT) = €4,556.25 Reference UK Foodservice Market Development Programme Signature ____________________________________ Reasons to target the UK • Scale – 61m people and 25m households in the UK • Geographic proximity to Ireland • Similar taste profiles Barriers to Entry the UK • Currency – strength of the Euro • Route to market – distribution costs • Margin pressures – commodity/food price inflation • Economic uncertainty – consumers spending less • Highly competitive market – focus on value For further information • Contacts – Beatrice Blake, Office Manager • beatrice.blake@bordbia.ie – Michelle Butler, Retail Trade Marketing Specialist • Michelle.butler@bordbia.ie – Aoife Wycherley, Foodservice Trade Marketing Specialist • Aoife.wycherley@bordbia.ie – London Office Telephone No +44 20 7833 1251