Colorado Wildlife Action Plan Enhancement: Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
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ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment December2014 KarinDeckerandMichelleFink ColoradoNaturalHeritageProgram ColoradoStateUniversity FortCollins,Colorado80523‐1475 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Table of Contents TableofContents......................................................................................................................................................2 ListofFigures........................................................................................................................................................6 ListofTables..........................................................................................................................................................7 ListofAcronymsandAbbreviations................................................................................................................8 Acknowledgements.................................................................................................................................................9 Introduction.............................................................................................................................................................10 Methods.....................................................................................................................................................................12 ExposureandSensitivityAssessment.....................................................................................................12 Currentdistributionmodels...................................................................................................................12 Mid‐centuryclimateprojections...........................................................................................................16 Exposuretoclimateenvelopeshiftforimportantvariables....................................................12 Resilience‐AdaptiveCapacityAssessment............................................................................................20 Bioclimaticenvelopeandrange............................................................................................................20 Growthformandintrinsicdispersalrate..........................................................................................21 Vulnerabilitytoincreasedattackbybiologicalstressors..........................................................21 Vulnerabilitytoincreasedfrequencyorintensityofextremeevents..................................21 Landscapecondition..................................................................................................................................21 VulnerabilityAssessmentRanking...........................................................................................................21 Exposure‐SensitivityRanking................................................................................................................21 Resilience‐AdaptiveCapacityRanking...............................................................................................22 OverallVulnerabilityRanking................................................................................................................22 Results........................................................................................................................................................................24 Statewidepatternsofmid‐centuryclimatechangeinColorado..................................................24 Temperature..................................................................................................................................................24 Precipitation..................................................................................................................................................25 Habitat‐specificpatternsofmid‐centuryclimatechangeinColorado......................................32 Habitatvulnerabilityranks..........................................................................................................................36 2 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Potentialbiomeshifts.....................................................................................................................................37 Conclusions..............................................................................................................................................................39 LiteratureCited......................................................................................................................................................41 TERRESTRIALECOSYSTEMVULNERABILITYASSESSMENTSUMMARIES................................44 LODGEPOLE.............................................................................................................................................................45 ClimateInfluences............................................................................................................................................45 ExposureandSensitivitySummary..........................................................................................................45 ResilienceComponents..................................................................................................................................46 AdaptiveCapacitySummary........................................................................................................................47 VulnerabilitytoClimateChange................................................................................................................47 PINYON‐JUNIPER..................................................................................................................................................52 ClimateInfluences............................................................................................................................................52 ExposureandSensitivitySummary..........................................................................................................52 ResilienceComponents..................................................................................................................................53 AdaptiveCapacitySummary........................................................................................................................54 VulnerabilitytoClimateChange................................................................................................................54 PONDEROSA............................................................................................................................................................59 ClimateInfluences............................................................................................................................................59 ExposureandSensitivitySummary..........................................................................................................60 ResilienceComponents..................................................................................................................................60 AdaptiveCapacitySummary........................................................................................................................61 VulnerabilitytoClimateChange................................................................................................................61 SPRUCE‐FIR.............................................................................................................................................................66 ClimateInfluences............................................................................................................................................66 ExposureandSensitivitySummary..........................................................................................................67 ResilienceComponents..................................................................................................................................68 AdaptiveCapacitySummary........................................................................................................................69 VulnerabilitytoClimateChange................................................................................................................69 OAK‐MIXEDMOUNTAINSHRUB....................................................................................................................74 3 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 ClimateInfluences............................................................................................................................................74 ExposureandSensitivitySummary..........................................................................................................74 ResilienceComponents..................................................................................................................................75 AdaptiveCapacitySummary........................................................................................................................76 VulnerabilitytoClimateChange................................................................................................................76 SAGEBRUSH.............................................................................................................................................................81 ClimateInfluences............................................................................................................................................81 ExposureandSensitivitySummary..........................................................................................................82 ResilienceComponents..................................................................................................................................82 AdaptiveCapacitySummary........................................................................................................................83 VulnerabilitytoClimateChange................................................................................................................83 SANDSAGE................................................................................................................................................................89 ClimateInfluences............................................................................................................................................89 ExposureandSensitivitySummary..........................................................................................................90 ResilienceComponents..................................................................................................................................90 AdaptiveCapacitySummary........................................................................................................................91 VulnerabilitytoClimateChange................................................................................................................91 FOOTHILLANDMOUNTAINGRASSLAND..................................................................................................96 ClimateInfluences............................................................................................................................................96 ExposureandSensitivitySummary..........................................................................................................97 ResilienceComponents..................................................................................................................................97 AdaptiveCapacitySummary........................................................................................................................98 VulnerabilitytoClimateChange................................................................................................................99 SHORTGRASSPRAIRIE......................................................................................................................................101 ClimateInfluences..........................................................................................................................................101 ExposureandSensitivitySummary........................................................................................................102 ResilienceComponents................................................................................................................................102 AdaptiveCapacitySummary......................................................................................................................103 VulnerabilitytoClimateChange..............................................................................................................103 4 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 PLAYAS.....................................................................................................................................................................108 ClimateInfluences..........................................................................................................................................108 ExposureandSensitivitySummary........................................................................................................108 ResilienceComponents................................................................................................................................109 AdaptiveCapacitySummary......................................................................................................................110 VulnerabilitytoClimateChange..............................................................................................................110 RIPARIANWOODLANDSANDSHRUBLANDS.........................................................................................112 ClimateInfluences..........................................................................................................................................112 ExposureandSensitivitySummary........................................................................................................113 ResilienceComponents................................................................................................................................114 AdaptiveCapacitySummary......................................................................................................................114 VulnerabilitytoClimateChange..............................................................................................................114 WETLANDS...............................................................................................................................................................117 ClimateInfluences..........................................................................................................................................117 ExposureandSensitivitySummary........................................................................................................118 ResilienceComponents................................................................................................................................119 AdaptiveCapacitySummary......................................................................................................................119 VulnerabilitytoClimateChange..............................................................................................................119 ALPINE.....................................................................................................................................................................122 ClimateInfluences..........................................................................................................................................122 ExposureandSensitivitySummary........................................................................................................123 ResilienceComponents................................................................................................................................123 AdaptiveCapacitySummary......................................................................................................................124 VulnerabilitytoClimateChange..............................................................................................................124 5 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 List of Figures Figure1.Componentsofvulnerability Glicketal.2011 ..................................................................11 Figure2.Illustrationofmethodforsummarizingthe12climateprojectionmodels.............18 Figure3.Generallizedexampleofassessingtherangeshiftfortemperatureorprecipitation variables.Thedashedlineindicatesthelimitofthecurrentrangeforthatvariable withinaspecifichabitat..............................................................................................................................14 Figure4.Vulnerabilityrankingmatrix.........................................................................................................22 Figure5.Annualmeantemperature,comparisonofhistoricnormalswithprojected conditionsatmid‐21stcenturyforbestandworstcaseendsofmodelrange.....................26 Figure6.Meansummertemperature,comparisonofhistoricnormalswithprojected conditionsatmid‐21stcenturyforbestandworstcaseendsofmodelrange...................27 Figure7.Meanwintertemperature,comparisonofhistoricnormalswithprojected conditionsatmid‐21stcenturyforbestandworstcaseendsofmodelrange.....................28 Figure8.Annualprecipitation,comparisonofhistoricnormalswithprojectedconditionsat mid‐21stcenturyforbestandworstcaseendsofmodelrange.................................................29 Figure9.Summerprecipitation,comparisonofhistoricnormalswithprojectedconditions atmid‐21stcenturyforbestandworstcaseendsofmodelrange............................................30 Figure10.Winterprecipitation,comparisonofhistoricnormalswithprojectedconditions atmid‐21stcenturyforbestandworstcaseendsofmodelrange............................................31 Figure11.CurrentColoradoannualmeantemperatureandprecipitationforninehabitat typesandprojectedmid‐centuryregionofchange.Circlesrepresenthistoricmeans witherrorbarsrepresentingonestd.dev.Squaresrepresentthemiddle80%percentof therangeofprojectedmid‐centurychange 12modelsunderRCP6 ...................................33 Figure12.CurrentColoradosummermeantemperatureandprecipitationforninehabitat typesandprojectedmid‐centuryregionofchange.Circlesrepresenthistoricmeans witherrorbarsrepresentingonestd.dev.Squaresrepresentthemiddle80%percentof therangeofprojectedmid‐centurychange 12modelsunderRCP6 ...................................34 Figure13.CurrentColoradomeanwinterminimumtemperatureandprecipitationfornine habitattypesandprojectedmid‐centuryregionofchange.Circlesrepresenthistoric meanswitherrorbarsrepresentingonestd.dev.Squaresrepresentthemiddle80% percentoftherangeofprojectedmid‐centurychange 12modelsunderRCP6 .............35 Figure14.Potentialbiomeshiftsby2060 Rehfeldtetal.2012 ....................................................38 6 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Figure15.Exposure‐SensitivityandResilience‐Adaptivecapacityscoresforhabitats includedinthisevaluation.VulnerabilityranksofLow,Moderate,andHigharerelative categoriesindicatinganapproximatepriorityofeachhabitatformanagementand planningforclimatechange......................................................................................................................39 List of Tables Table1.Habitatsassessedforvulnerabilitytoclimatechange.Habitatsmarkedwithan asteriskwereaddressedwithanarrativeemphasis,duetospatialdatalimitations.....12 Table2.Metricsusedinhabitatmodels.Unlessotherwisenoted,metricswerecalculated foreachyearinthetimerange the32yearperiod1980‐2012 ,andthenaveraged overallyears..................................................................................................................................................15 Table3.Variablegroupsusedindistributionmodeling......................................................................16 Table4.BCCACMIP5Modelsusedforanalysis.......................................................................................17 Table5.Climatevariablesusedtoassesseachhabitat.........................................................................19 Table6.Descriptionoffactorsusedtoassessresilience‐adaptivecapacity...............................20 Table7.Projectedchanges relativeto1980‐2012 bymid‐21stcentury 30‐yearperiod centeredaround2050 forColoradoasawhole,shownasstatewidemean stdev ....24 Table8.Vulnerabilityranksummaryforallassessedhabitats........................................................36 7 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 List of Acronyms and Abbreviations SWAP StateWildlifeActionPlan AFWA AssociationofFishandWildlifeAgencies AUC Areaundercurve BCCA BiasCorrectedConstructedAnalogs BOR BureauofReclamation BRT BoostedRegressionTrees CIRES CooperativeInstituteforResearchinEnvironmentalSciences,Universityof ColoradoBoulder CMIP ClimateModelDiagnosisandIntercomparisonProject Phase3publishedin 2007,Phase5publishedin2013 CNHP ColoradoNaturalHeritageProgram CPW ColoradoParksandWildlife DJF Wintermonths JJA Summermonths MAFW MassachusettsDivisionofFishandWildlife MAM Springmonths MCCS ManometCenterforConservationScience NCCSC NorthCentralClimateScienceCenter NRCS NaturalResourcesConservationService NOAA NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration ppm partspermillion ppt precipitation RCP Representativeconcentrationpathway SAHM SoftwareforAssistedHabitatModeling SON Fallmonths SSURGO SoilSurveyGeographicdatabase STATSGO StateSoilGeographicdatabase USGS UnitedStatesGeologicalSurvey 8 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Acknowledgements TheauthorswouldliketoacknowledgethegeneroussupportofColoradoParksand Wildlife,whoprovidedfundingforthiseffort.NumerousCPWstaffsharedtheirextensive professionalexperienceandknowledgethroughouttheprocess.Inparticularwethank EricOdell,FranciePusateri,SethMcClean,JimGarner,CaseyCooley,TrevorBalzer,Trent Verquer,HarryCrockett,TinaJackson,andBrianSullivanfortheirassistance. Thisprojectwouldnothavebeenpossiblewithoutthesupportandcollaborationofthe NorthCentralClimateScienceCenter.ThesharedexpertiseofJeffMorisette,ColinTalbert, MarianTalbert,andBrianMillerattheNCCSCprovideduswithessentialtechnicaltoolsas wellasinteractionwithlocalclimatescientiststhatwouldhavebeendifficultifnot impossibleforustoacquirewithouttheirassistance.JoeBarsugli CIRES andAndreaRay NOAA providedcrucialfeedbackonourclimatedataselectionandinterpretation. Finally,atCNHP,JoannaLemlyprovidedcriticalreviewandinformationaboutwetlandand riparianhabitats,RenéeRondeauprovidedadviceandreviewthroughouttheproject,and LeeGrunauperformedprodigiousfeatsofprojectorganization,asusual,thatenabledusto completethiswork.Thankyouall. 9 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Introduction Statewildlifeactionplans SWAPs wereoriginallydevelopedin2005byall50statesand fiveU.S.territoriesasaprerequisiteforthereceiptoffederalfundsthroughtheWildlife ConservationandRestorationProgramandtheStateWildlifeGrantsProgram.Theseplans compilestepsandstrategiesnecessarytoconservewildlifespeciesandtheirhabitatsso thatadequatemanagementactionisundertakenbeforefederalactionundertheESAis required.SWAPsareintendedto“assessthehealthofthestate’swildlifeandhabitats, identifytheproblemstheyface,andoutlinetheactionsthatareneededtoconservethem overthelongterm” AFWA2006 .ASWAPisrequiredtoaddresseightkeyelements, includingdescriptionsofthedistribution,abundance,andconditionofspeciesandtheir habitats,researchandconservationactionpriorities,monitoringandreview,andbroad publicparticipation. MostoftheoriginalSWAPsdidnotaddressclimatechange.Inrecognitionofthegrowing threatposedbythisfactor,theAssociationofFishandWildlifeAgencies AFWA has recommendedthatstatesincorporatetheimpactsofclimatechangeintotheten‐year SWAPrevisionsrequiredtobecompletedby2015,andprovidedguidanceforthistask AFWA2009,2012 .AsrecommendedintheAFWAbest‐practicesdocument,therevised SWAPwilladdresspotentialimpacts,opportunitiesandvulnerabilitiesunderlikelyfuture climaticconditions.Theintegrationofclimatechangeisintendedtobepartofadynamic, iterative,multi‐scaleprocessthatwillfocusmanagementactionsonstrategiesthatare effectiveunderbothcurrentandfutureclimates.Thisanalysisisbasedonarelativelyshort temporalscale i.e.,suitedtoagencyplanninghorizonsandattentivetouncertaintylevels inprojectedclimatemodels andtheuseofalimitedbutrepresentativesetofpotential changescenarios. AprimarytoolrecommendedbytheAFWAbest‐practicesisthevulnerabilityassessment forecosystemresponsestoclimatechange.Thecomponentsofvulnerabilitywere describedbyGlicketal. 2011 andconsistofprojectedexposuretoclimatechange, sensitivityofthespeciesorecosystemtoexpectedchanges,andtheadaptivecapacityof thespeciesorecosystemtorespondtochanges Figure1 .Althoughthisdiagramis straightforwardandconceptuallysimple,theindividualcomponentsofexposure, sensitivity,andadaptivecapacitycanbedifficulttocalculatewithanyprecision. Uncertaintycomesfromboththedegreeofvariationinthemanyclimateprojectionmodels, andfromthegapsinourknowledgeofthetargetspeciesorhabitat.Inaddressingthese components,wehopetoidentifywhichecosystemsaremostorleastvulnerabletoclimate changeaswellasthetypeandspatialpatternofthemostsignificantimpacts.This informationisexpectedtohelplandmanagersidentifyareaswhereactionmaymitigate 10 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 theeffectsofclimatechange,recognizepotentialnovelconditionsthatmayrequire additionalanalysis,andcharacterizeuncertaintiesinherentintheprocess. Figure 1. Components of vulnerability (Glick et al. 2011). DuringtherevisionofColorado’scurrentSWAP,theColoradoNaturalHeritageProgram CNHP ,ColoradoParksandWildlife CPW ,NorthCentralClimateScienceCenterandU.S. GeologicalServiceFortCollinsResearchCentercollaboratedtoproduceclimatechange vulnerabilityassessmentsforhighprioritywildlifehabitatsinthestate.Ourobjectives wereto: 1. Evaluateexposureandsensitivityofpriorityhabitatsbyidentifyingthedegreeof climatechangeexpectedbetweencurrentandfutureconditionsforclimatefactors believedtoinfluencethedistributionofthehabitat. 2. Evaluateadaptivecapacityofeachhabitatbyassessingfactorsthataffectthe resilienceofthehabitattochangeinlandscapecondition,invasiveorproblematic nativespeciespresence,dynamicprocessalterationbetweenpastandcurrent conditions,andthecharacteristicbioclimaticenvelopeofthehabitat. 3. Producesummaryvulnerabilityratingsforpriorityhabitats. 11 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Methods InconsultationwithCPW,CNHPidentified13targethabitatstobeassessed Table1 .The selectionofhabitatswasbasedontheirimportancetoColoradowildlifeSpeciesofGreatest ConservationNeed previouslyidentifiedinthe2005SWAPprocess .Thevulnerabilityof habitatswasassessedundertwoprimaryheadings:exposure‐sensitivity,andresilience‐ adaptivecapacity.Scoresforthesetwofactorswerecombinedtoobtainanoverall vulnerabilityrank. Table 1. Habitats assessed for vulnerability to climate change. Habitats marked with an asterisk were not modeled. Target Habitats Forest and Woodland Grassland Lodgepole pine forest Foothill & mountain grassland* Pinyon‐Juniper woodland Shortgrass prairie Ponderosa pine forest Riparian & Wetland Spruce‐Fir forest Playas* Shrubland Oak & mixed mountain shrubland Riparian woodland & shrubland * Sagebrush shrubland Wetlands* Other Sandsage shrubland Alpine Exposure and Sensitivity Assessment Weusedspatialanalysismethodstoevaluatetheexposureandsensitivitytoclimate changeforeachhabitat.ClimatedatawasacquiredwiththeassistanceoftheUSGSFort CollinsScienceCenterandtheNorthCentralClimateScienceCenter.Foreachhabitat, projectedchangeissummarizedbothnarrativelyandgraphically,wherepossible. Exposure to climate envelope shift for important variables Ourgoalwastoidentifyclimatevariablesthatweremostinfluentialindeterminingthe distributionofahabitatandevaluateprojectedfuturechangebymid‐centuryforeach variable.Weusedthreesourcesofinformationforthis:1 habitatdistributionmodeling forasubsetofhabitattypes ;2 expertreview;and3 literaturereview.Fornineofthe uplandhabitattypes,weusedmodelsofcurrentdistributionforeachhabitattoidentify importantclimatevariablesforthathabitat.Duetolimitationsintheresolutionofclimate data,nomodelswereconstructedforthefouradditionalhabitattypes markedby*in 12 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Table1 .Variablesusedandimportanceranksforeachhabitatmodelwerereviewedby CPWhabitatmanagersandCNHPecologists,inconjunctionwithaliteraturereview.In someinstances,modelswerere‐runtoincorporatefeedbackreceivedorapplicable publisheddata.Becauseofthehighcorrelationbetweenmanyvariables,thehighAUC valuesofallmodelsregardlessofwhichcorrelatedvalueswerechosen,andthedifficultyof interpretingsomemetrics,wedidnotrelysolelyonthemodelingprocesstoidentify importantvariablesforeachhabitat.Toclarifyinterpretation,wechosetofocusthefinal analysisonvariablesthatrepresentedseasonalratherthanmonthlyclimateinformation, andwesubstitutedmeansforvariablesbasedonthestandarddeviationofamean originallyusedtoinvestigatevariability . Fiveclimatevariablesperhabitatwereusedtoevaluateexposureandsensitivity Table5 byassessingthedegreetowhichfutureconditionswithinthecurrentmappeddistribution ofahabitatwereprojectedtobeoutsidethecorerangeofcurrentconditions,i.e.,the “rangeshift” Figure3 .Foreachvariable,thepercentofcurrentmappedacreagethatis projectedtofallbeloworabove dependingonthedirectionofgreateststressinthe“worst case”–e.g.,eitherwarmestordriestconditions thecurrentrangeiscalculated.Exposure‐ sensitivityranksarecalculatedfromtheaverageofthefiverangeshiftproportions. Uncertaintyinthisprocesscomesfromtheprobabilitythatthereareimportantclimate variablesthatweeitherdon’tknowabout,orcan’tmodel.Additionally,criticalvariables controllingthedistributionofahabitatmaynotbeclimaterelated e.g.,soils .Ourintent wastousethebestcurrentlyavailableinformationtomakeabestestimateofvulnerability withavailableinformation. Current distribution models ModelingmethodsweredevelopedwiththeassistanceofUSGSFortCollinsScienceCenter andtheNorthCentralClimateScienceCenter.Presencepointsforeachmodeledhabitat typewerederivedfromplotlocationsintheVegBankdatabase Peetetal.2013 andfrom plotlocationscollectedbyCNHPandothersinpastvegetationinventoryandsurvey projects.Pointlocationswereconvertedtocentroidsonthe1kmreferencegridusedas theprojecttemplate;onlycellswithasinglehabitattypewereretained,toavoidecotonal areastransitionalbetweenhabitattypes.Pointsforallhabitatswerecheckedagainst groundappearancesonrecentaerialimagery,andwithreferencetotheknowndistribution ofsignificantpatchesofthishabitattype.Foreachhabitat,thepointsofalltheothertypes wereusedasabsencepoints.ModelingwasperformedwiththeSAHM Morisetteetal. 2013 packageinVisTrails NYU‐PolyandUniv.ofUT2014 . 13 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Figure 3. Generalized example of assessing the range shift for temperature or precipitation variables. The dashed line indicates the limit of the current range for that variable within a specific habitat. Althoughsomeapparentlycausalrelationshipsbetweenenvironmentalvariablesandthe presenceofprimarycomponent‐speciesaredocumentedformostofourhabitats,thereis substantialuncertaintyremaining,aswellasalackofdatathatcouldbeusedtomodel someofthevariablesknowntobeimportant.Wehadavailablespatialdatafor44climate variablesand5soilvariablesforthestudyarea Table2 .Climatevariableswere generatedfrom1kmDaymet1980‐2012normals Thorntonetal.2012 ;soilvariables weregeneratedfromSTATSGOandSSURGOdatabases NRCS1994,2012 andconverted to1kmrasters.Asexpected,acorrelationanalysisshowedhighcollinearitybetween temperaturevariables,betweenprecipitationvariables,andbetweensoilvariables.Being mindfulofthepotentialforclimatefactorschosenincurrentmodelstoexhibitdifferent patternsinfutureprojectionsascomparedtothecurrentnormalperiod Braunischetal. 2013 ,wewerereluctanttoretainonlyasinglevariableeachforprecipitationand temperature.Inanefforttoretainrepresentativeclimatevariablesatdifferenttemporal scales e.g.monthly,seasonally,annually wegroupedour44climatevariablesinto11 categories Table3 .Collinearitywasgreatlyreduced althoughnotentirelyeliminated by theprocedureofselectingasinglevariablefromeachofthegroups.Additionalvariablesin eachgroupwereretainedformodelinitiationifbelow0.75correlation. Wetestedfourmodellingtechniques:boostedregressiontrees BRT ,generalizedlinear models,multivariateadaptiveregressionsplines,andrandomforests.Althoughall 14 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 techniquesproducedmodelswithveryhighAUCvalues,wechosetouseBRTasproviding thebestspatialresultswithregardtotheknownpresentdistributionofeachhabitattype. Table 2. Metrics used in habitat models. Unless otherwise noted, metrics were calculated for each year in the time range (the 32 year period 1980‐2012), and then averaged over all years. Metric Description Temperature Mean January temperature ((tmax+tmin)/2) Mean July temperature ((tmax+tmin)/2) Total annual growing degree days, base 0°C daily ((tmax+tmin)/2) summed across all days where this number is above 0°C Annual frost free days days/year where tmin > 0°C Annual very hot days days/year where tmax > 38°C Annual very cold days days/year where tmin < ‐34°C Date of first frost Julian date where tmin first <= 0°C in the summer/fall Variability of first frost standard deviation of first frost over the full time range Date of last frost Julian date where tmin last <= 0°C in the spring/summer Variability of last frost standard deviation of last frost over the full time range Mean summer temperature ((tmax+tmin)/2) averaged over June‐August Maximum summer temperature tmax averaged over June‐August Mean winter temperature ((tmax+tmin)/2) averaged over December‐February Minimum winter temperature tmin averaged over December‐February Precipitation Total precipitation for each month (12 metrics) sum of daily precipitation for the month Total precipitation for each season (4 metrics) sum of the daily precipitation for the 3 month period Variability of seasonal precipitation (4 metrics) standard deviation of seasonal ppt over the full time range Total annual precipitation sum of daily precipitation for the year Variability of annual precipitation standard deviation of annual ppt over the full time range Seasonal drought days (4 metrics) days/season where ppt < 5mm Annual drought days days/year where ppt < 5mm 15 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Metric Description Annual heavy precipitation days days/year where ppt > 25mm Total heavy precipitation days total days where ppt > 25mm over the full time period Total measurable precipitation days total days where ppt > 10mm over the full time period Soil Soil depth (cm) Due to the coarse scale of STATSGO and the incomplete nature of SSURGO in Colorado, soil depth and composition were derived from both STATSGO alone and a combination of STATSGO and SSURGO. Whichever version explained the most variation in each model was chosen. Percent sand Percent clay Percent silt Table 3. Variable groups used in distribution modeling. Precipitation Monthly mean precipitation warm months (AMJJA) Monthly mean precipitation cold months (SONDJF) average Annual/seasonal (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON) precipitation totals or drought Variability of annual/seasonal precipitation totals or drought Extreme precipitation events Multi‐year precipitation totals Temperature Growing season indicators (growing degree days, frostfree days, first and last frost days and variability, temperatures of warmest or coldest months) Variability of first and last frost dates Extreme cold events Extreme hot events Soil Soil depth and composition (sand/silt/clay %) Mid-century climate projections Projectedfutureandmodeledhistoricbiascorrected,1/8degreestatisticallydownscaled dailyclimatedata BOR2013 forthetopvariables totalingatleast75%oftherelative influenceinthefinalmodel,oridentifiedasimportantbyothersources werecalculated 16 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 usingtheGeoDataPortalpackage Talbert2014 ofVisTrailsandadhocpythoncode providedbytheNCCSC.Weused12models Table4 ,averagedover1980‐2005to represent"historic"or“current”normals,andaveragedover2035‐2060undertheCMIP5 RCP6scenariotorepresentmid‐centuryprojections 2050;BCCA2013 .An1/8degree resolutionisapproximately12km.Thisisthefinestresolutioncurrentlyavailablefor projecteddailydata.RCP6isthesecondhighestRepresentativeConcentrationPathway vanVuurenetal.2011 usedintheClimateModelDiagnosisandIntercomparisonProject, phase5 CMIP5 ,estimatingtheequivalentof850ppmofCO2beyondtheyear2100, makingitlooselyequivalenttotheA2emissionsscenariofromCMIP3 830ppmCO2by 2100.Note,however,thatRCPsuseradiativeforcinginsteadofCO2emissionsandsoare notdirectlycomparable .CPWpersonnelselectedRCP6foruseinthisproject.The12 modelschosenareallclimateprojectionmodelscalculatedunderRCP6. Table 4. BCCA CMIP5 Models used for analysis. Modeling Center (or Group) Institute ID Model Name Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration BCC bcc‐csm1‐1_rcp60_r1i1p1 National Center for Atmospheric Research NCAR CCSM4_rcp60_r1i1p1 NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory NOAA GFDL GFDL‐CM3_rcp60_r1i1p1 GFDL‐ESM2G_rcp60_r1i1p1 GFDL‐ESM2M_rcp60_r1i1p1 Institut Pierre ‐ Simon Laplace IPSL IPSL‐CM5A‐LR_rcp60_r1i1p1 IPSL‐CM5A‐MR_rcp60_r1i1p1 Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (The MIROC University of Tokyo), National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Japan Agency for Marine ‐ Earth Science and Technology MIROC5_rcp60_r1i1p1 Japan Agency for Marine ‐ Earth Science and Technology, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (The University of Tokyo), and National Institute for Environmental Studies MIROC MIROC‐ESM_rcp60_r1i1p1 Meteorological Research Institute MRI MRI‐CGCM3_rcp60_r1i1p1 Norwegian Climate Centre NCC NorESM1‐M_rcp60_r1i1p1 MIROC‐ESM‐CHEM_rcp60_r1i1p1 We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in the above table) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the U.S. Department of Energy's Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. 17 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Thedifferentinitialconditionsandforcingalgorithmsusedbyeachmodelingcenterresult inarangeofoutcomesfromthedifferentmodels,reflectingtheinherentuncertaintyin projectingfutureclimaticconditions.Precipitationprojectionsinparticularvarywidely frommodeltomodel.Tocapturetherangeofuncertaintyinthemostusefulwaypossible, thecentral80%ofthe12‐modelrangewaschosentorepresentthe"reasonablerange"of possiblefutureclimateforeachmetric Figure2 .Arasterforthelowerendofeachmetric wasproducedbyadding10%oftherangetotheminimumcellvalue,andforthehigher endbysubtracting10%oftherangefromthemaximumcellvalue.Inevaluatinghabitat exposuretoclimatechange,wegenerallyconcentratedonthe“worstcase”endofthe range,representingeitherthewarmestprojectedconditionsfortemperaturevariablesor thedriestprojectedconditionsforprecipitationvariables.Althoughanumberofmodels projectincreasedprecipitationforourarea,wefocusedonpotentiallydrieralternativesto accountforthedryingeffectsofincreasingtemperature.Thisgivesmanagerstheoptionto planforthe"worstcase"changeinclimate. Figure 2. Illustration of method for summarizing the 12 climate projection models. 18 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Forest and Woodland Pinyon‐Juniper woodland Spruce‐Fir forest Shrubland Oak & mixed mountain shrub Shortgrass prairie Riparian & Wetland East Other Alpine 19 Very cold days Very hot days GDD (base 0) Annual avg temp Summer avg temp Spring avg temp Mountains West Riparian woodland & shrubland Wetlands Playas Foothill & mountain grassland Sandsage shrubland Sagebrush shrubland Grassland Winter avg temp Winter min temp Date of first frost Date of last frost Drought days Lodgepole pine forest Ponderosa pine forest Heavy ppt days Annual ppt Fall ppt Summer ppt Habitat Target Spring ppt Winter ppt Table 5. Climate variables used to assess each habitat (shaded cells). ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Resilience-Adaptive Capacity Assessment Thisranksummarizesindirecteffectsandnon‐climatestressorsthatmayinteractwith climatechangetoinfluencetheadaptivecapacityandresilienceofahabitat.Factors evaluatedareadaptedfromthemethodologyusedbyManometCenterforConservation ScienceandMassachusettsDivisionofFishandWildlife MCCSandMAFW2010 , combinedunderfiveheadings Table6 .Factorswerescoredonascaleof0 low resilience to1 highresilience . Table 6. Description of factors used to assess resilience‐adaptive capacity. Assessment factor Description Bioclimatic envelope and range This factor summarizes the expected effects of limited elevational or bioclimatic ranges for a habitat. Suitable conditions for habitats at upper elevations may be eliminated. Habitats with narrow bioclimatic envelopes may be more vulnerable to climate change. Finally, habitats that are at the southern edge of their distribution in Colorado may be eliminated from the state under warming conditions. Growth form and intrinsic dispersal rate Vulnerability to increased impact by biological stressors This factor summarizes the overall ability of the habitat’s component species to shift their ranges in response to climate change relatively quickly. Characteristics of growth form, seed‐dispersal capability, vegetative growth rates, and stress‐tolerance are considered. This factor summarizes whether expected future biological stressors (invasive species, grazers and browsers, pests and pathogens) have had, or are likely to have, an increased effect due to interactions with changing climate. Climate change may result in more frequent or more severe outbreaks of these stressors. Habitats that are currently vulnerable to these stressors may become more so under climate change. Vulnerability to increased frequency or intensity of extreme events This factor evaluates characteristics of a habitat that make it relatively more vulnerable to extreme events (fire, drought, floods, windstorms, dust on snow, etc.) that are projected to become more frequent and/or intense under climate change. Other indirect effects of non‐ climate stressors – landscape condition This factor summarizes the overall condition of the habitat at the landscape level across Colorado, and is derived from a landscape integrity score indexing the degree of anthropogenic disturbance (Rondeau et al. 2011, Lemly et al. 2011). Bioclimatic envelope and range Eachhabitatwasscoredforelevationexposure,southernedgeofrange,annual precipitationrange,andgrowingdegreedaysrange.Habitatsrestrictedtohighelevations receivedascoreof0,otherhabitatsscored1.Likewise,habitatsatthesouthernedgeof theircontinentalrangeinColoradowereassignedascoreof0,andotherhabitatsscored1. 20 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Annualprecipitationandgrowingdegreedaysrangewerecalculatedastheproportionof totalvariablerangeinColoradoinwhichthehabitathadsignificantpresencemapped. Thesefourscoreswereaveragedtoproduceasinglescoreforthisfactor. Growth form and intrinsic dispersal rate Scoresof0 lowresilience ,0.5 uncertainormoderateresilience ,and1 highresilience wereassignedtoeachhabitatbasedongrowthformofthedominantspecies i.e.,trees scored0,shrubsandherbaceousscored1 ,andotherinformationderivedfromthe literatureregardingthedispersalabilitiesofthosespecies. Vulnerability to increased attack by biological stressors Foreachbiologicalstressortowhichahabitatisbelievedvulnerable,0.33wassubtracted fromadefaultscoreof1,toproducethefinalhabitatscore. Vulnerability to increased frequency or intensity of extreme events Foreachnon‐biologicalstressortowhichahabitatisbelievedvulnerable,0.33was subtractedfromadefaultscoreof1,toproducethefinalhabitatscore. Landscape condition Theaveragevalueacrossthestatewidelandscapeintegritymodels Rondeauetal.2011, Lemlyetal.2011 foreachhabitatwascalculatedasavaluebetween0and1. Vulnerability Assessment Ranking WelooselyfollowedthemethodologyoftheNatureServeHabitatClimateChange VulnerabilityIndex Comeretal.2012 .Foreachhabitat,itsprojectedexposuretoclimate changeanditspresumedsensitivitytothatchangearecombinedintoasinglerank.This rankincorporatestheprojecteddegreeofchange exposure forfiveclimatevariables believedtobeimportantindeterminingthedistributionofthathabitat sensitivity .The exposure‐sensitivityrankiscombinedwitharanksummarizingtheresilienceandadaptive capacityofthehabitat. Exposure-Sensitivity Ranking Thisranksummarizesthedegreeofprojectedchange exposure forfiveclimatevariables perhabitat.Variablesarethosetowhichthehabitatissensitive,basedonourthreesources ofinformation.Foreachvariable,thepercentofcurrentmappedacreagethatisprojected tofallbeloworabove dependingonthedirectionofgreateststressinthe“worstcase” 21 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 scenario–e.g.,eitherwarmestordriestconditions onestandarddeviationofthecurrent meaniscomparedwiththepercentageundercurrentconditions.Anegativevalueindicates improvingconditionsforthathabitat,whileapositivevalueindicatesexposureconditions thatarepresumedtobemorestressful.Thevaluesareaveragedforacombinedscorethat isintendedtoindicatetherelativedegreeofimpacttothehabitatfromchangingclimate. Resilience-Adaptive Capacity Ranking Scoresforthefivefactorsarebasedonbothspatialanalysisandliteraturereview. Rankingsforthissub‐scoreareoppositetothedirectionoftheexposure‐sensitivity rankingscheme i.e.,apositivevalueindicates“better”andanegativevalueindicates “worse.” Theroundedaverageofthefivesub‐rankingsdeterminesthefinalResilience‐ AdaptiveCapacityrank. Overall Vulnerability Ranking TheExposure‐SensitivityrankandtheResilience‐AdaptiveCapacityrankarecombined Figure4 accordingtotheschemepresentedbelow Comeretal.2012 . Exposure‐Sensitivity rank / Resilience ‐ Adaptive capacity rank H / H M / H L / H Vulnerability Very High H / M M / M L / M High Moderate Low H / L M / L L / L Figure 4. Vulnerability ranking matrix. VeryHigh:Habitatshavehighvulnerabilitytoclimatechangewhenexposureand sensitivityarehigh,andadaptivecapacityandresiliencearelow.Underthese circumstances,transformationofthehabitatismostlikelytooccurinupcoming decades. 22 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 High:Highvulnerabilitytoclimatechangeresultsfromcombiningeitherhighor moderateexposure‐sensitivitywithlowormediumadaptivecapacity‐resilience.Under eithercombination,climatechangeislikelytohavenoticeableimpact. Moderate:Moderatevulnerabilitytoclimatechangeresultsfromavarietyof combinationsforexposure‐sensitivityandadaptivecapacity‐resilience.Thenumberof possiblecombinationsindicatesadegreeofuncertaintyinthevulnerabilityranking. Undercircumstanceswherethetwofactorsareessentiallybalanced,vulnerabilityis thoughttobereduced,butstillofconcern. Low:Lowvulnerabilitytoclimatechangeoccurswhenahabitatcombineslowexposure andsensitivitywithhighormoderateadaptivecapacityandresilience.Forthese habitatsclimatechangestressanditseffectsareexpectedtobeleastsevereorabsent. 23 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Results Statewide patterns of mid-century climate change in Colorado Projectionsbasedon12modelsrununderRCP6forthe30‐yearperiodcenteredon2050 indicatethatallareasofColoradowillexperiencesomedegreeofwarming Table7, Figures5‐7 ,andpotentiallychangesinpecipitationaswell.Temperaturechange projectionsareregardedasmorecertain Barsuglipers.comm. ,andthereisgeneral agreementthatconditionshavealreadywarmedtosomedegree Lucasetal.2014 ; uncertaintyfortemperaturechangeislargelyregardingthemagnitudeoftheprojected change.PrecipitationprojectionsforColoradoaremorevariablethanthosefor temperature.Somemodelprojectionsaredrierthancurrentconditionsandsomeare wetter Figures8‐10 ;statewidepatternsofprecipitationarealsovariablebetween models.Incombinationwithexpectedchangesintemperature,however,evenawetter scenariomaynotbesufficienttomaintainrunoffandsoilmoistureconditionssimilarto thoseoftherecentpast.Climateprojectionspresentedherearesummariesoflongterm trendsanddonottrackinter‐annualvariation,whichwillremainasourceofvariability,as ithasbeeninthepast.Ouranalysisfocusedonasinglerepresentativeconcentration pathwayandalimitedsubsetofavailableglobalcirculationmodels;atthispointintimewe havenowayofknowingifthisisthescenariothatwillbefoundvalidbymid‐century. Table 7. Projected changes (relative to 1980‐2012) by mid‐21st century (30‐year period centered around 2050) for Colorado as a whole, shown as statewide mean (stdev). Projected changes by Upper (90%) range mid‐21st century* Lower (10%) range Change in annual avg. temperature 1.04C (0.04) 1.87F (0.07) 2.28C (0.11) 4.10F (0.20) Change in summer avg. temperature 1.30C (0.07) 2.34F (0.13) 2.78C (0.15) 5.00F (0.27) Change in winter avg. temperature 0.59C (0.15) 1.06F (0.27) 2.52C (0.15) 4.54F (0.27) Change in annual precipitation ‐41.73 mm (26.54) ‐1.64 in (1.04) 53.70 mm (25.59) 2.11 in (1.01) Change in summer precipitation ‐29.86 mm (17.26) ‐1.18 in (0.68) 8.60 mm (4.87) 0.34 in (0.19) ‐8.44 mm (9.39) ‐0.33 in (0.37) 17.34 mm (14.12) 0.68 in (0.56) Change in winter precipitation *Projections are based on 12 BCCA CMIP5 RCP6 models Temperature Statewide,annualmeantemperaturesunderthewarmestprojectedconditionswould increasebyatleast2C 3.6°F .Ingeneral,mountainousareas,includingtheSanLuis Valley,willwarmslightlyless 0.2‐0.3C;0.4‐0.5°F thanelsewhere.Temperaturesin 24 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 northeasternandnorthwesternColoradoareprojectedtoincreasebyaround2.4C 4.3°F , withincreasesofaround2.0C 3.6°F incentralpartsofthestate.Wintertemperatures showasimilarpattern,withthegreatestpotentialwarming 2.6‐2.8C;4.7‐5.0°F projectedfornon‐mountainousareasinthenorthernhalfofthestate.Althoughaverage winterminimumtemperaturesremainbelowfreezingstatewide,increasingmeanwinter temperaturesarelikelytogreatlyexpandtheareaexperiencingwintermeansabove freezing.Projectedincreasesinsummermeantemperaturesaregreatestontheeastern plains 2.6‐3.1C;4.7‐5.6°F ,andareleastinmountainousareasunderthewarmest scenario.Summerminimumtemperatures i.e.,warmnights arealsoprojectedto increase.CurrentlymostofColorado’salpineareashaveaveragesummerminimum temperaturesthatdipbelowfreezing.Underthewarmestscenario,thesecoldsummer nighttemperatureswouldbelargelyeliminatedfrommanypartsofthestate. Precipitation Incontrasttotemperatureprojections,changesinprecipitationcouldbepositiveor negative.Underthedriestprojectedconditions,easternColorado,thesouthernSanJuan Mountains,andtheSanLuisValleycouldseedecreasesof1‐4inchesormoreinannual precipitation.Underthewettestprojectedconditions,mostareaswouldexperiencean increaseinannualprecipitation,especiallythenorthernandcentralmountains.Under projectedwetterconditions,mountainareasaremostlikelytoseeanincreaseinwinter precipitation,andthefareasternplainsmostlikelytoseesomewhatmoresummer precipitation.Underprojecteddrierconditions,thegreatestdecreaseinwinter precipitationisforthesouthwesternpartofthestate,andsummerdecreasesaregreatest ontheeasternplains.Projectedstatewidepatternsofprecipitationaregenerallysimilarto thoseobservedintherecentpast,butwithaslighttendancyforeasternandsouthernparts ofthestatetoberelativelydrierthantheyhavebeen.ThelocaleffectsofColorado’s complextopographyaddanadditionalelementofuncertaintytoprojectionsof precipitationthathaveanunderlyingresolutionof1/8thdegree ~12km . 25 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 st Figure 5. Annual mean temperature, comparison of historic normals with projected conditions at mid‐21 century for best and worst case ends of model range. 26 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Figure 6. Mean summer temperature, comparison of historic normals with projected conditions at mid‐21st century for best and worst case ends of model range. 27 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Figure 7. Mean winter temperature, comparison of historic normals with projected conditions at mid‐21st century for best and worst case ends of model range. 28 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Figure 8. Annual precipitation, comparison of historic normals with projected conditions at mid‐21st century for best and worst case ends of model range. 29 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Figure 9. Summer precipitation, comparison of historic normals with projected conditions at mid‐21st century for best and worst case ends of model range. 30 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Figure 10. Winter precipitation, comparison of historic normals with projected conditions at mid‐21st century for best and worst case ends of model range. 31 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Habitat-specific patterns of mid-century climate change in Colorado Acomparisonofthecurrentclimateenvelopeforannualandseasonalpatternsof temperatureandprecipitationwithprojectedvalues Figure11 showsthatfuture conditionsformosthabitatsintheircurrentlyoccupiedrangewillbewarmer,butprobably stillwithintherangeoftoleranceformostconstituentspecies.Theprojectedrangeof futureprecipitationtendstowardswetterforhigherelevationhabitats,anddrierforlower elevationhabitats.Habitatsoftheeasternplainsaregenerallyprojectedtobedrierand warmer.Duetoincreasingtemperaturepatterns,evenaslightincreaseinprecipitation mayresultinoveralldrierconditionsforsoilmoisture. Seasonalpatternsoftemperatureandprecipitationshowdifferentpatterns.The elevationalseparationofhabitatsisnotevidentforsummerprecipitation,although temperaturegradientsremain Figure12 .Warmingtrendsaresimilartothoseseeninthe annualsummary,butprecipitationtendstowarddrierconditionsincomparisonwiththe recentpast.Projectedchangesforwintertemperatureandprecipitationmeansshowless potentialwarming,andmorepotentialincreaseinprecipitation Figure13 . Withinthetimeframeandemissionsscenariousedforouranalysis,theprojectedclimate conditionsforourfocalhabitatsindicatethatbymid‐centuryhabitatenvelopesare shifting,butmaystillbewithintherangeoftheconstituentorganisms,atleastinpart.In general,mosthabitatswillnotshiftquickly,butwewilllikelybegintoseealtered compositionandpotentialfornovelcombinations. 32 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 (a) (b) Figure 11. Current Colorado annual mean temperature and precipitation and projected mid‐century region of change for (a) upland habitats and (b) wetland and riparian habitats. Circles represent historic means with error bars representing one std. dev. Squares represent the middle 80% percent of the range of projected mid‐century change (12 models under RCP6). 33 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 (a) (b) Figure 12. Current Colorado summer mean temperature and precipitation and projected mid‐century region of change for (a) upland habitats and (b) wetland and riparian habitats. Circles represent historic means with error bars representing one std. dev. Squares represent the middle 80% percent of the range of projected mid‐century change (12 models under RCP6). 34 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 (a) (b) Figure 13. Current Colorado mean winter minimum temperature and precipitation and projected mid‐century region of change for (a) upland habitats and (b) wetland and riparian habitats. Circles represent historic means with error bars representing one std. dev. Squares represent the middle 80% percent of the range of projected mid‐century change (12 models under RCP6). 35 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Habitat vulnerability ranks Threeofthe18habitatsorhabitatsubgroupsassessedhaveanoverallvulnerabilityrankof High Table8 .Ingeneral,habitatsoftheeasternplainshavethegreatestexposureto change,andthoseofhigherelevationsaremoderatelyexposed.Underamoresevere emissionsscenario,andlongertime‐frame,thesehabitatswouldbesubjecttoincreased exposure.Mosthabitatswereassessedashavingmoderateresilience.Additional discussionforindividualhabitatsisprovidedbelow. Table 8. Vulnerability rank summary for all assessed habitats. Exposure ‐ Sensitivity final ranking Habitat Target Resilience ‐ Combined Adaptive capacity ranks final ranking Overall vulnerability rank Forest and Woodland Lodgepole pine forest Low Low L/L Moderate Pinyon‐Juniper woodland Low Low L/L Moderate Ponderosa pine forest Moderate Moderate M/M Moderate Spruce‐Fir forest Moderate Moderate M/M Moderate Low High L/H Low Sagebrush shrubland Low Moderate L/M Low Sandsage shrubland High High H/H Moderate Foothill & mountain grassland ‐ high Moderate Moderate M/M Moderate Foothill & mountain grassland ‐ low High Moderate H/M High Shortgrass prairie High Moderate H/M High Moderate Low M/L High Riparian woodland & shrubland ‐ west Low Low L/L Moderate Riparian woodland & shrubland ‐ mountain Low Moderate L/M Low Riparian woodland & shrubland ‐ east Low Moderate L/M Low Wetlands ‐ west Low Moderate L/M Low Wetlands ‐ mountain Low Moderate L/M Low Moderate Moderate M/M Moderate Other Alpine Moderate Moderate M/M Moderate Shrubland Oak & mixed mountain shrub Grassland Riparian & Wetland Playas Wetlands ‐ east 36 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Potential biome shifts Rehfeldtetal. 2012 modeledtheNorthAmericanbiomesofBrownetal. 1998 for futureclimatescenarios.WithinColorado,recentpastconditionsaresuitableforeight biometypes,approximatelycorrespondingtothealpine,spruce‐fir,montaneconifer encompassingponderosa,mixedconifer,andaspen,withinclusionsofothermontane non‐treedvegetationtypes ,oak‐mixedmountainshrub,pinyon‐juniperwoodland,sage‐ desertgrassland,shortgrass,anddesertshrubland Figure14 .Aspredictedbythemodel consensusfor2060,biomesinthestateareexpectedtoshifttotheextentthatsuitablearea foralpineiseliminatedinfavorofspruce‐fir,togetherwithapotentialfornovel combinationsofconifersatelevationspreviouslydominatedbyspruce‐firforests.Thezone suitableforthevariousconiferandaspentypesispredictedtoexpandsubstantially, potentiallymovingintosouthernareascurrentlyoccupiedbyoak‐mixedmountain shrubland.Areasfavorabletooak‐mixedmountainshrublandarealsoprojectedtoexpand northward,intoareascurrentlyoccupiedbypinyon‐juniperand/orsagebrushgrassland. Conditionssuitablefordesertshrublandarealsopredictedtoexpandconsiderablyinto areascurrentlyoccupiedbysagebrush‐grassland oragriculture .Inthesouthernplains, someareaisprojectedtobecomedryenoughforsemi‐desertgrasslandstodisplace shortgrass. Becausewedidnotmodelprojectedfuturedistributionofhabitats,acomparisonofthe biomemodelsofRehfeldtetal. 2012 withourresultsisnotstraightforward. Furthermore,modeledbiometypesdonotcrosswalktoourhabitattypesinaclearone‐to‐ onerelationship;anumberoftypesaresimplynotaddressedwellbyaparticularbiome. However,projectedbiomechangesareinbroadagreementwithouranalysisofColorado’s moreextensivehabitats,exceptforthoseoftheeasternplains.Ourlowexposurerankingof pinyon‐juniperandoak‐mixedmountainshrubcorrespondswiththeprojectedexpansion ofthesebiomesintoareasthatarecurrentlycoolerthanfutureprojections.Moderate exposurerankingsformostofColorado’sconiferousforesttypesarereflectedinthe projectedrearrangementofbiometypeswhereconditionsinalpineareasbecome favorablefortreegrowth,andlowerelevationforestsarelikelytochangeinstructureand compositionastheyexpandintoadditionalhabitat.Thehighexposurerankingforhabitats oftheeasternplainsisnotmatchedbyamodeledbiomeshift,exceptinthesouthernplains whereshortgrassprairiemayunabletomaintainitscurrentdistribution. 37 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Figure 14. Potential biome shifts by 2060 (Rehfeldt et al. 2012). 38 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Conclusions Themajorityofhabitattypeswererankedasmoderatelyvulnerableinouranalysis, however,thedivisionbetweenmoderatelyandhighlyvulnerableislessclearthanthe separationbetweenlowandmoderatevulnerability Figure15 .Thetruevulnerability levelofhabitatsnearthemoderate‐highdivisionislikelytobedeterminedbytheirdegree ofadaptivecapacity,whichwewerenotabletoevaluatewithprecision,andwhichcanbe affectedbymanagementactionstosomeextent. Figure 15. Exposure‐Sensitivity versus Resilience‐Adaptive capacity scores for habitats included in this evaluation. Vulnerability ranks of Low, Moderate, and High are relative categories indicating an approximate priority of each habitat for management and planning for climate change. Bymid‐century,underamedium‐highradiativeforcingscenario RCP6.0 ,wecanexpect toseewarmertemperaturesstatewide,especiallyontheeasternplains.Warmer temperaturesarelikelytoincludemoreheatwaves,fewercoldsnaps,andgenerally extendedfrost‐freeperiods.Althoughtheseconditionscouldbenefitmanyspeciesif 39 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 precipitationremainsadequate,thewarmingtrendislikelytobeaccompaniedbydrier conditionsinmanyareas.Evenifprecipitationlevelsathigherelevationsareessentially unchanged,warmerconditionswillleadtomoreprecipitationfallingasraininsteadof snow,adecreasedsnowpack,earlierrunoff,andearlierdryconditionsinlatesummer Lucasetal.2014 .Allofthesefactorsmayinteractwithstressorssuchasfire,forestpests anddiseases,drought,andanthropogenicdisturbancetoalterthefuturetrajectoryofa particularhabitat. Comparisonofthecurrentrangeofclimatevariableswiththeprojectedrange Figures11‐ 13above indicatessubstantialcurrentandfutureoverlapofclimaticconditionsforsome habitatgroups.Forinstance,alpine,spruce‐fire,and,insomecaseslodgepolepine,are clearlycloseinclimatictolerance,whileponderosapine,oak‐shrub,andsagebrushforma groupsharingsimilarclimaticconditionsatlowerelevations.Theinteractionofclimatic conditionswithotherenvironmentalfactorsandbiogeographichistoryshapesthe distributionofhabitatsthatwecurrentlyobserve.Furthermore,thetimelagbetweenwhen climateconditionsbecomesuitableorunsuitableforaspeciesandtheeventual colonizationoreliminationofthatspeciesinanareaaddsanotherlevelofuncertaintyto projectionsoffuturehabitatdistribution.Climatechangesoverthepastfewdecadesare probablyalreadyfacilitatingagradualshiftofhabitatsthatwillbecomemoreapparentby mid‐century. Ouranalysisoftherangeoffutureuncertaintyfocusedon“worstcase”outcomesinorder toprovideavulnerabilityprioritizationofkeyhabitatsthatwillfacilitateapragmatic“no‐ regrets”planningstrategyforCPWstaffdealingwiththeongoingeffectsofclimatechange inColorado. 40 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Literature Cited AssociationofFishandWildlifeAgencies,ClimateChangeandTeamingWithWildlife Committees,ClimateChangeWildlifeActionPlanWorkGroup.2009.Voluntary guidanceforstatestoincorporateclimatechangeintoStateWildlifeActionPlansand othermanagementplans Internet .Washington DC :AssociationofFishandWildlife Agencies.Availablefrom:http://www.fishwildlife.org/files/AFWA‐Voluntary‐ Guidance‐Incorporating‐Climate‐Change_SWAP.pdf AssociationofFishandWildlifeAgencies,TeamingWithWildlifeCommittee,StateWildlife ActionPlan SWAP BestPracticesWorkingGroup.2012.BestPracticesforState WildlifeActionPlans—VoluntaryGuidancetoStatesforRevisionandImplementation. 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Thornton,PE,MMThornton,BWMayer,NWilhelmi,YWei,RBCook.2012.Daymet:Daily surfaceweatherona1kmgridforNorthAmerica,1980‐2012.Acquiredonline http://daymet.ornl.gov/ on02/20/2014fromOakRidgeNationalLaboratory DistributedActiveArchiveCenter,OakRidge,Tennessee,U.S.A. http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3334/ORNLDAAC/Daymet_V2viatheUSGSGeoDataPortal http://cida.usgs.gov/gdp/ . vanVuuren,D.P.,Edmonds,J.,Kainuma,M.,Riahi,K.,Thomson,A.,Hibbard,K.,Hurtt,G.C., Kram,T.,Krey,V.,Lamarque,J‐F.,Masui,T.,Meinshausen,M.,Nakicenovic,N.,Smith,S.J., andS.K.Rose.2011.Therepresentativeconcentrationpathways:anoverview.Climate Change,10.1007/s10584‐011‐0148‐z. 43 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEM VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT SUMMARIES Forest and Woodland Habitats Lodgepoleforest Pinyon‐juniperwoodland Ponderosapineforestandwoodland Spruce‐firforest Shrubland Habitats Oak‐mixedmountainshrubland Sagebrushshrubland Sandsageshrubland Grassland Habitats Foothill‐montanegrassland Shortgrassprairie Riparian and Wetland Habitats Playas RiparianWoodlandsandShrublands Wetlands Other Habitats Alpine 44 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 LODGEPOLE Climate Influences Lodgepolepine Pinuscontorta isanorthernspeciesthatdoesexceptionallywellinvery coldclimatesandcantolerateawiderangeofannualprecipitationpatterns,fromfairlydry tofairlywet,butgenerallygrowsonlywhereannualprecipitationisatleast18‐20inches Mason1915,LotanandPerry1983 .Lodgepolepineforestsarefoundondriersitesthan spruce‐firforest,althoughsnowfallistypicallyheavyintheseforests.Summersareoften quitedry,andlodgepolepineisdependentonsnowmeltmoistureformostofthegrowing season.Inlowsnowpackyears,growthisreduced Huetal.2101 . Lodgepolepineistolerantofverylowwintertemperatures,andinmanylodgepoleforests summertemperaturescanfallbelowfreezing,sothereisnotruefrost‐freeseason Lotan andPerry1983 .Lodgepolepineisalsoabletotakeadvantageofwarmgrowingseason temperatures,andalongergrowingseasonduetowarmerfalltemperaturescouldfavor thegrowthoflodgepolepine Villalbaetal.1994,Chhinetal.2008 .InsouthernColorado, whitefir Abiesconcolor appearstotaketheplaceoflodgepolepineinconiferousforests ofsimilarelevations.Whitefirappearstotoleratewarmertemperaturesthanlodgepole pine Thompsonetal.2000 ;underwarmerconditionsitmaybeabletomoveintoareas currentlyoccupiedbylodgepoleforest. Exposure and Sensitivity Summary Lodgepolepineforestsareprojectedtoexperiencewintertemperatureswarmerthanthe currentinaboutonequarterofthecurrentdistribution.Projectedwinterandspring precipitationlevelsaregenerallywithinthecurrentrange,butsummerprecipitationfor 21%ofthecurrentdistributionisprojectedtobelowerthanthedriestendofthecurrent range. 45 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Lodgepole % projected Climate variable (sources: M=model, E = expert review, L = literature review) range shift Winter precipitation (L) 0% Spring precipitation (M) 3% Summer precipitation (M) 21% Mean winter temperature (E) 25% Very cold days (E) 25% Average range shift 14.9% Rank L Exposure‐Sensitivity level Low Resilience Components LodgepolepinesubspeciesarewidelydistributedinNorthAmerica,butRockyMountain lodgepolereachesthesouthernedgeofitsdistributioninsouth‐centralColorado.In Colorado,lodgepolepineforestsrangefromabout8,500‐11,000ft.inelevation.Statewide, theannualaverageprecipitationrangeforlodgepoleforestisabout13.5‐41in. 35‐105 cm ,withameanof25” 64cm .Lodgepolepineisabletotoleratemuchwarmer temperaturesthanspruce‐firforest.Growingseasonlengthforlodgepolebroadlyoverlaps thatofthewarmerendofthespruce‐firdistribution. Manylodgepoleforestsdevelopedfollowingfires.Lodgepolepinesproducebothopenand serotinouscones,andcanreproducequicklyafterafire.Followingstand‐replacingfires, lodgepolepinerapidlycolonizesanddevelopsintodense,even‐agedstands sometimes referredtoas“doghair”stands .Thisfire‐adaptedspecieshasthepotentialtomoveinto areaswherespruce‐firforestsburn. Althoughinvasivespeciesaregenerallynotathreat,lodgepoleforestsarevulnerabletothe pestoutbreaksthatappeartoincreasewithwarmer,drier,drought‐proneclimates. Biologicalstressorsthatinteractwithfiredynamicsoflodgepoleforestincludeinfestations oflodgepolepinedwarf‐mistletoeandmountainpinebeetle Anderson2003 .Dwarf mistletoereducestreegrowthandconeproduction,andgenerallyleadstoearliermortality HawksworthandJohnson1989 .Althoughlodgepoleforestsarestillcommonacross Colorado,mostareexperiencingwidespreaddamagefromasevereoutbreakofmountain pinebeetle.Thepinebeetleisanativespecies,andperiodicoutbreaksofthisinsectare 46 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 partofthenaturalcyclethatmaintainsColorado’smountainforests.Lodgepoleforestsare expectedtopersistinColorado Kaufmannetal.2008 . Adaptive Capacity Summary Lodgepole Range and biophysical envelope Dispersal & growth form Biological stressors 0.60 0 0.67 Extreme Landscape events condition 0.33 0.75 Resilience ‐ Adaptive capacity score Rank Resilience Level 0.45 L Low Vulnerability to Climate Change Exposure ‐ Sensitivity Lodgepole pine forest Resilience – Adaptive Combined Overall vulnerability to Capacity rank climate change Low Low L/L Moderate Lodgepolepineforestisrankedmoderatelyvulnerabletotheeffectsofclimatechangeby mid‐centuryunderamoderateemissionsscenario.Primaryfactorscontributingtothis rankingareitsvulnerabilitytoforestdisturbancesthatmayincreaseinthefuture,andthe factthatitisatthesouthernedgeofitsdistributioninColorado. Mapsbelowillustratethespatialpatternofexposureundertheworstcasescenarioforthe fiveclimatevariablesassessedforlodgepolepineforest.Legendpointersindicatetherange ofchangeforthishabitatwithinthestatewideextentofchange.Forwinterprecipitation, areasinthesouthernandwesternedgeoftheColoradodistributionaremostexposed.For springandsummerprecipitation,areasalongtheFrontRangearemostexposedtodrier conditions.Warmingduringthegrowingseasonisprojectedtoexperiencethegreatest increaseintheeasternportionoftheColoradodistribution,andthenumberofverycold daysinwinterisprojectedtoreducethemostinthesouth‐westernpartofthedistribution. 47 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 48 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 49 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 References: Anderson,M.D.2003.Pinuscontortavar.latifolia.In:FireEffectsInformationSystem, Online .U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture,ForestService,RockyMountainResearch Station,FireSciencesLaboratory Producer .Available: http://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/ Chhin,S.,E.H.Hogg,V.J.Lieffers,andS.Huang.2008.Influencesofclimateontheradial growthoflodgepolepineinAlberta.Botany86:167‐178. Hawksworth,F.G.andD.W.Johnson.1989.Biologyandmanagementofdwarfmistletoein lodgepolepineintheRockyMountains.Gen.Tech.Rep.RM‐169.FortCollins,CO:U.S. DepartmentofAgriculture,ForestService,RockyMountainForestandRange ExperimentStation.38p. Hu,J.,D.J.P.Moore,S.P.Burns,andR.K.Monson.2010.Longergrowingseasonsleadtoless carbonsequestrationbyasubalpineforest.GlobalChangeBiology16:771‐783. KaufmannM.R.,G.H.Aplet,M.Babler,W.L.Baker,B.Bentz,M.Harrington,B.C.Hawkes,L. StrohHuckaby,M.J.Jenkins,D.M.Kashian,R.E.Keane,D.Kulakowski,C.McHugh,J. Negron,J.Popp,W.H.Romme,T.Schoennagel,W.Shepperd,F.W.Smith,E.Kennedy 50 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Sutherland,D.Tinker,andT.T.Veblen.2008.Thestatusofourscientificunderstanding oflodgepolepineandmountainpinebeetles–afocusonforestecologyandfire behavior.TheNatureConservancy,Arlington,VA.GFItechnicalreport2008‐2. Lotan,J.E.andD.A.Perry.1983.Ecologyandregenerationoflodgepolepine.Agric.Handb. 606.Washington,DC:U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture,ForestService.51p. Mason,D.T.1915.LifehistoryoflodgepolepineintheRockyMountains.Bulletin154. Washington,DC:U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture,ForestService.35p. Thompson,R.S.,K.H.Anderson,andP.J.Bartlein.2000.Atlasofrelationsbetweenclimatic parametersanddistributionsofimportanttreesandshrubsinNorthAmerica.U.S. GeologicalSurveyProfessionalPaper1650‐A. Villalba,R.,T.T.Veblen,andJ.Ogden.1994.Climaticinfluencesonthegrowthofsubalpine treesintheColoradoFrontRange.Ecology75:1450‐1462 51 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 PINYON-JUNIPER Climate Influences Theseevergreenwoodlandsareadaptedtocoldwinterminimumtemperaturesandlow rainfall,andareoftentransitionalbetweengrasslandordesertshrublandandmontane coniferecosystem Brown1994,Peet2000 .Sincethelastmajorglacialperiod,the distributionandrelativeabundanceofthecharacteristictreespecieshasfluctuated dynamicallywithchangingclimaticconditions.Warmingconditionsduringthepasttwo centuries,togetherwithchangingfireregime,livestockgrazing,andatmosphericpollution increasedtheabilityofthisecosystemtoexpandintoneighboringcommunities,atboth higherandlowerelevations Tausch1999 .Variabledisturbanceandsiteconditionsacross thedistributionofthisecosystemhaveresultedinadynamicmosaicofinterconnected communitiesandsuccessionalstagesthatmaybenaturallyresilient. Bargeretal. 2009 foundthatpinyonpine Pinusedulis growthwasstronglydependent onsufficientprecipitationpriortothegrowingseason winterthroughearlysummer ,and coolerJunetemperatures.Bothofthesevariablesarepredictedtochangeinadirection thatislessfavorableforpinyonpine.Droughtcanresultinwidespreadtreedie‐off, especiallyofthemoresusceptiblepinyonpine Breshearsetal.2008 .Cliffordetal. 2013 detectedastrongthresholdat60cmcumulativeprecipitationoveratwo‐yeardrought period i.e.,essentiallynormalannualprecipitationforpinyonpine .Sitesabovethis thresholdexperiencedlittlepinyondie‐off,whilesitesreceivinglessprecipitationincluded areaswithhighlevelsofmortality.Mortalityofpinyontreeswasextensiveinthearea duringthe2002‐2003droughtandbarkbeetleoutbreak,butinareaswherejuniper Juniperusspp. andshrubspeciesprovidemicrositesforseedlingestablishment,pinyon maybeabletopersist RedmondandBarger2013 .Patternsofprecipitationand temperature i.e.,cool,wetperiods appeartobemoreimportantinrecruitmentevents thanhistoryoflivestockgrazing Bargeretal.2009 . Thepinyon‐juniperhabitathaslargeecologicalamplitude;warmerconditionsmayallow expansion,ashasalreadyoccurredinthepastcenturies,aslongasthereareperiodic cooler,wetteryearsforrecruitment.Increaseddroughtmaydrivefiresandinsect outbreaks,fromwhichthesewoodlandswouldbeslowtorecover. Exposure and Sensitivity Summary Pinyon‐juniperwoodlandsareprojectedtoexperiencesummertemperatureswarmerthan thecurrentrangeinmorethanonethirdofthecurrentdistribution.Projectedwinter 52 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 precipitationlevelsaregenerallywithinthecurrentrange,butspringandsummer precipitationfor9‐16%ofthecurrentdistributionareprojectedtobelowerthanthedriest endofthecurrentrange. Pinyon‐juniper % projected Climate variable (sources: M=model, E = expert review, L = literature review) range shift Winter precipitation (L) 2% Spring precipitation (M, L) 16% Summer precipitation (M, E, L) 9% Mean summer temperature (M, E) 38% Very cold days (M, E) 3% Average range shift 13.5% Rank L Exposure‐Sensitivity level Low Resilience Components Pinyon‐juniper,whichformsthecharacteristicwoodlandofwarm,drylowerelevations fromabout4,600to8,500ft.,iswidespreadinColorado’swesterncanyonsandvalleys,as wellasinthesouthernmountains.TheNorthAmericandistributionofthishabitatis centeredintheColoradoPlateau,generallysouthwestofColorado.Standsareoften adjacenttoandintermingledwithoak,sagebrush,orsaltbushshrubland.Thestatewide rangeofannualaverageprecipitationisabout10‐23in 25‐60cm ,withameanof16in 40cm ,similartosagebrushshrubland.Growingseasontemperaturesaregreaterinthe rangeofpinyon‐juniperthanformanyotherwoodyvegetationtypesinColorado. Extendeddroughtcanincreasethefrequencyandintensityofinsectoutbreaksand wildfire.PinyonaresusceptibletothefungalpathogenLeptographiumwagenerivar. wageneri,whichcausesblackstainrootdisease,andtoinfestationsofthepinyonipsbark beetle Ipsconfusus KearnsandJacobi2005 .Thedifferentialsusceptibilityofpinyonand junipertodroughtandinsectoutbreakscouldeventuallyresultinthesewoodlandsbeing dominatedbyjuniper. Pinyonpinestandsareslowtorecoverfromintensefires;thespeciesreproducesonlyfrom seedandrecoveryisdependentonseedsourcesand/oradequatedispersal.Junipersare alsoslow‐growing,andsusceptibletobeingkilledbyfire.AtMesaVerdeNationalPark, 53 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 wherepinyon‐juniperwoodlandshaveburnedinfivelargefiressince1930,treeshavenot yetre‐established.Itisnotknownwhytreeshavenotbeensuccessfulintheseareas,which arenowoccupiedbyshrubland Floydetal.2000 . Adaptive Capacity Summary Pinyon‐juniper Range and biophysical envelope 0.87 Resilience Dispersal & ‐ Adaptive growth Biological Extreme Landscape capacity Resilience form stressors events condition score Rank Level 0 0.67 0.33 0.592 0.47 L Low Vulnerability to Climate Change Exposure ‐ Sensitivity Pinyon‐Juniper woodland Resilience – Adaptive Combined Overall vulnerability to Capacity rank climate change Low Low L/L Moderate Pinyon‐juniperwoodlandsarerankedmoderatelyvulnerabletotheeffectsofclimate changebymid‐centuryunderamoderateemissionsscenario.Primaryfactorscontributing tothisrankingarethevulnerabilityofthesewoodlandstostressorsthatarelikelyto increaseunderchangingclimate,andtheextenttowhichthecurrentlandscapecondition ofthehabitathasbeenimpactedbyanthropogenicdisturbance. Mapsbelowillustratethespatialpatternofexposureundertheworstcasescenarioforthe fiveclimatevariablesassessedforpinyon‐juniper.Legendpointersindicatetherangeof changeforthishabitatwithinthestatewideextentofchange.Areasinthesouthernpartof thestatearemostexposedtopotentiallydrierconditions,especiallyforsummer precipitation.Temperaturechangedoesnotshowaclearpattern. 54 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 55 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 56 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 References: Barger,N.N.,H.D.Adams;C.Woodhouse,J.C.Neff,andG.P.Asner.2009.Influenceof livestockgrazingandclimateonpiñonpine Pinusedulis dynamics.Rangeland EcologyandManagement62:531–539. Breshears,D.D.,O.B.Myers,C.W.Meyer,F.J.Barnes,C.B.Zou,C.D.Allen,N.G.McDowell,and W.T.Pockman.2008.Treedie‐offinresponsetoglobalchange‐typedrought:mortality insightsfromadecadeofplantwaterpotentialmeasurements.FrontiersinEcologyand theEnvironment7:185‐189. Brown,D.E.1994.GreatBasinConiferWoodland.InBioticcommunities:southwestern UnitedStatesandnorthwesternMexico.D.E.Brown,ed.UniversityofUtahPress,Salt LakeCity,UT. Clifford,M.J.,P.D.Royer,N.S.Cobb,D.D.Breshears,andP.L.Ford.2013.Precipitation thresholdsanddrought‐inducedtreedie‐off:insightsfrompatternsofPinusedulis mortalityalonganenvironmentalstressgradient.NewPhytologist200:413‐421. Floyd,M.L.,W.H.Romme,andD.D.Hanna.2000.Firehistoryandvegetationpatternin MesaVerdeNationalPark,Colorado,USA.EcologicalApplications10:1666‐1680. 57 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Kearns,H.S.J.andW.R.Jacobi.2005.Impactsofblackstainrootdiseaseinrecentlyformed mortalitycentersinthepiñon‐juniperwoodlandsofsouthwesternColorado.Can.J.For. Res.35:461‐471. Peet,R.K.2000.ForestsandmeadowsoftheRockyMountains.Chapter3inNorth AmericanTerrestrialVegetation,secondedition.M.G.BarbourandW.D.Billings,eds. CambridgeUniversityPress. Redmond,M.D.andN.N.Barger.2013.Treeregenerationfollowingdrought‐andinsect‐ inducedmortalityinpiñon‐juniperwoodlands.NewPhytologist200:402‐412. TauschR.J.1999.Historicpinyonandjuniperwoodlanddevelopment.In:S.B.Monsenand R.Stevens eds. .ProceedingsoftheConferenceonEcologyandManagementofPinyon‐ JuniperCommunitieswithintheInteriorWest.Ogden,UT,USA:USDepartmentof Agriculture,ForestService,RockyMountainResearchStation.p.12–19. 58 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 PONDEROSA Climate Influences Ponderosapine Pinusponderosa occupiesrelativelydry,nutrient‐poorsitescomparedto othermontaneconifers,butshowswideecologicalamplitudethroughoutitsdistribution. Rehfeldtetal. 2012 wereabletopredictthedistributionofponderosapinelargely throughtheuseofsummerandwinterprecipitation,andsummertemperatures as growingdegreedays 5C .Althoughperiodicseasonaldroughtischaracteristicacrossthe rangeofponderosapine,thisspeciesisgenerallyfoundwhereannualprecipitationisat least13inches Barrettetal.1980,Thompsonetal.2000 .Ponderosastandstothesouth ofColoradowereprimarilyreliantonwinterprecipitation Kerhoulasetal.2013 ,while growthofFrontRangestandswascorrelatedwithspringandfallmoisture Leagueand Veblen2006 ,indicatingsomevariabilityintheabilityofponderosapinetotakeadvantage ofseasonalwateravailability,dependingonsitefactorsandstandhistory.Consequently, vulnerabilityofponderosaforeststochangesinprecipitationpatternsmaydifferaccording totheirlocationinColorado. Ponderosapineisabletotoleratefairlywarmtemperaturesaslongasthereisenough moisture,especiallyinthegrowingseason.Optimalgerminationandestablishment conditionsoccurwhentemperaturesareabove50°Fandmonthlyprecipitationisgreater than1inch ShepperdandBattaglia2002 .Significantrecruitmenteventsmayoccuron burnedareaswhenconditionsarewetwetterthannormalafterafireyear,butnormal precipitationmayalsobesufficientforseedlingestablishmentinsuchcases Mastetal. 1998 .InlowerelevationponderosawoodlandsoftheColoradoFrontRange,episodic recruitmentofponderosapinewasassociatedwithhighspringandfallmoisture availabilityduringElNiñoevents LeagueandVeblen2006 .Acorrelationbetween droughtandlowratesofponderosaseedlingrecruitmenthasalsobeenidentified throughoutthewesternGreatPlains Kayeetal.2010 .Droughtincombinationwith futureprojectedhighertemperaturesislikelytoreduceponderosapineregeneration, especiallyindrier,lowerelevationareas.TheworkofBrownandWu 2005 suggeststhat coincidentconditionsofsufficientmoistureandfewerfiresareimportantforwidespread recruitmentepisodesofponderosapine;suchconditionsmaybecomelesslikelyunder futureclimatescenarios. Increaseddroughtmaydrivefiresandinsectoutbreaks.Relativeproportionsofassociated species e.g.,otherconifers,aspen,understoryshrubsandgrasses inponderosastands 59 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 maychange.Thishabitatiswelladaptedtowarm,dryconditionsifprecipitationisnottoo muchreduced,andmaybeabletoexpandintohigherelevations. Exposure and Sensitivity Summary Ponderosapineforestandwoodlandsareprojectedtoexperiencesummertemperatures warmerthanthecurrentrangeinmorethanonethirdofthecurrentdistribution,and projectedwintertemperaturesarewarmerthanthecurrentrangeformorethanaquarter ofthedistribution.Projectedsummerandfallprecipitationlevelsareprojectedtobelower thanthedriestendofthecurrentrangefornearlyaquarterofthecurrentdistribution. Ponderosa % projected Climate variable (sources: M=model, E = expert review, L = literature review) range shift Summer precipitation (M, E, L) 19% Fall precipitation (L) 23% Mean winter minimum temperature (M, E) 27% Mean summer temperature (E) 39% Very hot days (E) 32% Average range shift 19.2% Rank Exposure‐Sensitivity level M Moderate Resilience Components Ponderosawoodlandsarenotfoundathighelevations,butinsteadformabroadzoneof coniferousforestalongthesouthernflankoftheSanJuanMountains,aswellasalongthe easternmountainfront,generallyatelevationsbetween6,000and9,000ft.Thesehabitats areinwithinthecentralportionoftheirNorthAmericandistributioninColorado.Annual precipitationissimilartothatforoakshrubland,witharangeof18.9‐35.8in 30‐80cm andameanof20in 51cm .Ponderosaoccursinabroadmiddlerangeofgrowingseason lengthsacrossthestate. Althoughseedsaretypicallynotdispersedveryfar,ponderosapineisoftenpresentin mixedconiferstands;theseareasmayprovideaseedbankforregenerationorashiftto ponderosapine.Recruitmentisepisodic,dependingonprecipitationanddisturbance patterns.Theseforestsaresusceptibletooutbreaksofthemountainpinebeetle 60 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Dendroctonusponderosae andmistletoeinfestations,bothofwhichmaybeexacerbated byincreaseddrought.Impactsofnativegrazersordomesticlivestockcouldalsoalter understorystructureandcomposition. Ponderosapineiswelladaptedtosurvivefrequentsurfacefires,andmixed‐severityfires arecharacteristicinthesecommunities Arno2000 .Althoughclimatechangemayalter fireregimesslightlybyaffectingthecommunitystructure,fireisnotexpectedtohavea severeimpactinthefutureforthesestands,andmayactuallybebeneficialinsomeareas. Adaptive Capacity Summary Ponderosa Range and biophysical envelope Dispersal & growth form Biological stressors 0.87 0 0.67 Extreme Landscape events condition 0.67 0.54 Resilience ‐ Adaptive capacity score Rank Resilience Level 0.53 M Moderate Vulnerability to Climate Change Exposure ‐ Sensitivity Ponderosa pine forest & woodland Moderate Resilience – Combined Overall vulnerability to Adaptive Capacity rank climate change Moderate M/M Moderate Ponderosapineforestsandwoodlandsarerankedmoderatelyvulnerabletotheeffectsof climatechangebymid‐centuryunderamoderateemissionsscenario.Primaryfactors contributingtothisrankingaretheexposureoflargeareasofthishabitattowarmer temperaturesthatarelikelytointeractwithforestdisturbancesthatare,inturn, exacerbatedbywarm,dryconditions. Mapsbelowillustratethespatialpatternofexposureundertheworstcasescenarioforthe fiveclimatevariablesassessedforponderosahabitats.Legendpointersindicatetherange ofchangeforthishabitatwithinthestatewideextentofchange.Areasalongthemountain frontareprojectedtoseethemostdecreaseinsummerandfallprecipitation.Thenorthern FrontRangeportionofthedistributionisprojectedtoexperiencethemostwarming.Very hotdays whichmaycontributetofiredanger mayincreaseslightlythroughoutthe distributionofponderosa. 61 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 62 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 63 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 References: Arno,S.F.2000.Fireinwesternforestecosystems.Chapter5inBrown,J.K.andJ.K.Smith, eds.Wildlandfireinecosystems:effectsoffireonflora.Gen.Tech.Rep.RMRS‐GTR‐42‐ vol.2.Ogden,UT:U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture,ForestService,RockyMountain ResearchStation.257p. Barrett,J.W.,P.M.McDonald,F.RoncoJr,andR.A.Ryker.1980.Interiorponderosapine.In: Eyer,F.H.,ed.ForestcovertypesoftheUnitedStatesandCanada.Washington,DC:U.S. DepartmentofAgriculture,ForestService:114‐115. Brown,P.M.andR.Wu.2005.Climateanddisturbanceforcingofepisodictreerecruitment inasouthwesternponderosapinelandscape.Ecology86:3030‐3038. Howard,J.L.2003.Pinusponderosavar.scopulorum.In:FireEffectsInformationSystem, Online .U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture,ForestService,RockyMountainResearch Station,FireSciencesLaboratory Producer .Available: http://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/ 64 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 KayeM.W.,C.A.WoodhouseandS.T.Jackson.2010.Persistenceandexpansionof ponderosapinewoodlandsinthewest‐centralGreatPlainsduringthepasttwo centuries.JournalofBiogeography37:1668‐1683. League,K.andT.Veblen.2006.ClimaticvariabilityandepisodicPinusponderosa establishmentalongtheforest‐grasslandecotonesofColorado.ForestEcologyand Management228:98‐107. Mast,J.N.,T.T.Veblen,andY.B.Linhart.1998.Disturbanceandclimaticinfluencesonage structureofponderosapineatthepine/grasslandecotone,ColoradoFrontRange. JournalofBiogeography.25:743‐755. Oliver,W.W.,andR.A.Ryker.1990.PinusponderosaDougl.exLaws.Ponderosapine.p. 413‐424.In:Burns,R.M.andB.H.Honkala tech.coord. SilvicsofNorthAmerica Volume1,Conifers.USDAFor.Serv.Agric.Handb.654.Availableat: http://www.na.fs.fed.us/pubs/silvics_manual/Volume_1/pinus/ponderosa.htm Shepperd,W.D.andM.A.Battaglia.2002.Ecology,Silviculture,andManagementofBlack HillsPonderosaPine.GeneralTechnicalReportRMRS‐GTR‐97.USDAForestService RockyMountainResearchStation,FortCollins,CO.112p. Thompson,R.S.,K.H.Anderson,andP.J.Bartlein.2000.Atlasofrelationsbetweenclimatic parametersanddistributionsofimportanttreesandshrubsinNorthAmerica.U.S. GeologicalSurveyProfessionalPaper1650‐A. 65 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 SPRUCE-FIR Climate Influences Spruce‐firforesttypicallydominatesthewettestandcoolesthabitatsbelowtreeline.These areasarecharacterizedbylong,coldwinters,heavysnowpack,andshort,coolsummers wherefrostiscommon Uchytil1991 .BothEngelmannspruce Piceaengelmannii and subalpinefir Abieslasiocarpa aredependentonsnowmeltwaterformostofthegrowing season,andinlowsnowpackyearsgrowthisreduced Huetal.2101 . Thelengthofthegrowingseasonisparticularlyimportantforbothalpineandsubalpine zones,andforthetransitionzonebetweenalpinevegetationandclosedforest treeline . Treeline‐controllingfactorsoperateatdifferentscales,rangingfromthemicrositetothe continental HoltmeierandBroll2005 .Onaglobalorcontinentalscale,thereisgeneral agreementthattemperatureisaprimarydeterminantoftreeline.Körner 2012 attributes thedominanceofthermalfactorsatthisscaletotherelativeconsistencyofatmospheric conditionsoverlargeareas,especiallyincomparisontomorelocalinfluenceofsoiland moisturefactors.Furthermore,thereappearstobeacriticaldurationoftemperatures adequateforthegrowthoftreesinparticular e.g.individuals 3mtall thatdetermines thelocationoftreeline.Atmorelocalscales,soilproperties,slope,aspect,topography,and theireffectonmoistureavailability,incombinationwithdisturbancessuchasavalanche, grazing,fire,pests,disease,andhumanimpactsallcontributetotheformationoftreeline RichardsonandFriedland2009,Körner2012 .Patternsofsnowdepthandduration, wind,insolation,vegetationcover,andtheautecologicaltolerancesofeachtreespecies influencetheestablishmentandsurvivalofindividualswithinthetreelineecotone Moiret al.2003,HoltmeierandBroll2005,Smithetal.2009 .IntheRockyMountains,tree establishmentwassignificantlycorrelatedwithwarmerspring Mar‐May andcool‐season Nov‐Apr minimumtemperaturesaswell Elliott2012 . Spruce‐firforestscurrentlyoccupycoldareaswithhighprecipitation;warmeranddrier climateconditionspredictedbymostmodelscouldresultinanupwardmigrationofthese forestsintothealpinezone.However,inCanadianspruce‐firforests,warmerthanaverage summertemperaturesledtoadecreaseingrowththefollowingyear HartandLaroque 2013 .Sincespruce‐firmaybeabletotoleratewarmersummertemperatures,thelower extentofthishabitattypecouldremainatcurrentlevelsforsometime,evenifgrowthis reduced. 66 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Thecurrentlocationoftreelineisaresultoftheoperationofclimaticandsite‐specific influencesoverthepastseveralhundredyears,anddoesnotexactlyreflectthecurrent climate Körner2012 .Thetreelinepositionlagtimebehindclimatechangeisestimated tobe50‐100 years,duetotherarityofrecruitmentevents,theslowgrowthandfrequent setbacksfortreesintheecotone,andcompetitionwithalreadyestablishedalpine vegetation Körner2012 .Nevertheless,onthebasisofhistoricevidence,treelineis generallyexpectedtomigratetohigherelevationsastemperatureswarm,aspermittedby localmicrositeconditions Smithetal.2003,RichardsonandFriedland2009,Grafiusetal. 2012 . Furthermore,thelagtimeofdecadesorlongerfortreelinetorespondtowarming temperaturesmayallowthedevelopmentofnovelvegetationassociations Chapinand Starfield ,andmakeitdifficulttoidentifytemperatureconstraintsonthedistributionof thishabitat Grafiusetal.2012 .Thegradualadvanceoftreelineisalsolikelytodependon precipitationpatterns.Seedlingestablishmentandsurvivalaregreatlyaffectedbythe balanceofsnowaccumulationandsnowmelt.Soilmoisture,largelyprovidedbysnowmelt, iscrucialforseedgerminationandsurvival.Althoughsnowpackinsulatesseedlingsand shieldssmalltreesfromwinddesiccation,itspersistenceshortensthegrowingseasonand canreducerecruitment Rochefortetal.1994 . Exposure and Sensitivity Summary Spruce‐firforestsareprojectedtoexperiencewinterandsummertemperatureswarmer thanthecurrentrangeinasignificantportionoftheircurrentdistribution.Projected winterandspringprecipitationlevelsaregenerallywithintherangeofthecurrent distribution. 67 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Spruce‐fir % projected Climate variable (sources: M=model, E = expert review, L = literature review) range shift Winter precipitation (L) 2% Spring precipitation (M, E) 5% Mean winter minimum temperature (E) 31% Mean summer temperature (M, E, L) 43% Growing degree days ‐ base 0 (L) 43% Average range shift 23.3% Rank Exposure‐Sensitivity level M Moderate Resilience Components Spruce‐firforestsinColoradohaveawideelevationalrange,extendingfromabout8,900ft. uptoover12,000ft.Althoughnotasrestrictedasalpinehabitats,spruce‐firforestsare generallylimitedtohigher,coolerelevations,andarealsonearthesouthernextentoftheir continentalrangeinColorado.Statewide,annualaverageprecipitationisslightlylower thanforalpinewitharangeofabout16‐47in. 40‐120cm andameanof31in. 80cm . Spruce‐firrequiresalongergrowingseasonthanalpinehabitat,butissuccessfulatmuch coolertemperaturesthanmostotherforesttypes.Spruce‐firforestsaccumulatemore annualgrowingdegreedaysthanalpineareas,butfewerthanforotherforestedtypes. Subalpinefirseedsrequirecold‐moistconditionstotriggergermination Uchytil1991 , andthereissomeindicationthatEngelmannspruceseedsgerminatefasteratrelatively lowtemperatures Smith1985 ,givingitacompetitiveadvantageoverlesscold‐tolerant species.Underwarmerconditions,however,currentspruce‐fircommunitiesmaybe graduallyreplacedbyamixed‐coniferforest.Therearenoobviousbarrierstothegradual dispersalofseedlingsintoadjacent,newlysuitablehabitat,althoughthedominantspecies aregenerallyslow‐growing. Althoughthesesubalpineforestsarenotsusceptibletoincreasedprevalenceofinvasive species,theyarevulnerabletooutbreaksofthenativepestspeciessprucebudwormand sprucebeetle.Warmertemperatures bothwinterandsummer arelikelytofacilitate theseinfestations;currentdistributionofspruce‐firhabitatmaythereforebeatincreased riskofsignificantmortality.Insectoutbreaksarealsotypicallyassociatedwithdroughts. 68 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Historicnaturalfire‐returnintervalsintheseforestshavebeenontheorderofseveral hundredyears,andthetreespeciesarenotadaptedtomorefrequentfires.Withan increaseindroughtsandfastersnowmelts,wemightexpectanincreaseinforestfire frequencyandextentwithinthiszone.Itisnotknownifspruce‐firforestswillbeableto regenerateundersuchconditions,especiallyinlowerelevationstands,andthereisa potentialforareductioninspruce‐firforests,atleastintheshortterm. Adaptive Capacity Summary Range and biophysical envelope Dispersal & growth form Biological stressors 0.37 0 0.67 Spruce‐fir Extreme Landscape events condition 0.67 0.89 Resilience ‐ Adaptive capacity score Rank Resilience Level 0.51 M Moderate Vulnerability to Climate Change Exposure ‐ Sensitivity Spruce‐Fir forest Resilience – Adaptive Combined Overall vulnerability to Capacity rank climate change Moderate Moderate M/M Moderate Spruce‐firforestsarerankedmoderatelyvulnerabletotheeffectsofclimatechangeby mid‐centuryunderamoderateemissionsscenario.Primaryfactorscontributingtothis rankingaretherestrictionofthesehabitatstohigherelevationsinColorado,andthe relativelynarrowbiophysicalenvelope.ThemajorityoftheNorthAmericandistributionof EngelmannspruceandsubalpinefiristothenorthofColorado.Theslowgrowthand dispersaloftheseforestsalsocontributestotheirvulnerability. Mapsbelowillustratethespatialpatternofexposureundertheworstcasescenarioforthe fiveclimatevariablesassessedforspruce‐firhabitats.Legendpointersindicatetherangeof changeforthishabitatwithinthestatewideextentofchange.Areasonthesouthernflank oftheSanJuanMountainsareprojectedtoexperiencethegreatestreductionsinwinter andspringprecipitationunderadryscenario,whilenorthernportionsoftherangeare littlechanged.Winterminimumtemperaturesareprojectedtowarmbyatleast2°C throughouttherange,andsummermeantemperaturesmayincreaseevenmore,especially innorthernColorado.Overall,thegrowingseasonforspruce‐firforestsinthestateis expectedtoincrease,whichcouldeventuallyfacilitatethemigrationofthishabitatto higherelevations. 69 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 70 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 71 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 References: Alexander,R.R.1987.Ecology,silviculture,andmanagementoftheEngelmannspruce‐ subalpinefirtypeinthecentralandsouthernRockyMountains.Agric.Handb.659. Washington,DC:U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture,ForestService.144p. Chapin,F.S.andA.M.Starfield.1997.Timelagsandnovelecosystemsinresponseto transientclimaticchangeinarcticAlaska.Climaticchange35:449‐461. Elliott,G.P.2012.Extrinsicregimeshiftsdriveabruptchangesinregenerationdynamicsat uppertreelineintheRockyMountains,USA.Ecology93:1614‐1625. Grafius,D.R.,G.P.Malanson,andD.Weiss.2012.Secondarycontrolsofalpinetreeline elevationsinthewesternUSA.PhysicalGeography33:146‐164. Hart,S.J.andC.P.Laroque.2013.Searchingforthresholdsinclimate‐radialgrowth relationshipsofEngelmannspruceandsubalpinefir,JasperNationalPark,Alberta, Canada.Dendrochronologia31:9‐15. 72 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Holtmeier,F‐K.andG.Broll.2005.Sensitivityandresponseofnorthernhemisphere altitudinalandpolartreelinestoenvironmentalchangeatlandscapeandlocallevels. Global Hu,J.,D.J.P.Moore,S.P.Burns,andR.K.Monson.2010.Longergrowingseasonsleadtoless carbonsequestrationbyasubalpineforest.GlobalChangeBiology16:771‐783. Körner,C.2012.Alpinetreelines:functionalecologyoftheglobalhighelevationtreelimits. Springer,Basel,Switzerland. Moir,W.H.,S.G.Rochelle,andA.W.Schoettle.1999.Microscalepatternsoftree establishmentnearuppertreeline,SnowyRange,Wyoming.Arctic,Antarctic,and AlpineResearch31:379‐388. Richardson,A.D.andA.J.Friedland.2009.Areviewofthetheoriestoexplainarcticand alpinetreelinesaroundtheworld.JournalofSustainableForestry28:218‐242. Rochefort,R.M.,R.L.Little,A.Woodward,andD.L.Peterson.1994.Changesinsub‐alpine treedistributioninwesternNorthAmerica:areviewofclimaticandothercausal factors.TheHolocene4:89‐100. Smith,W.K.1985.Westernmontaneforests.Chapter5inChabot,R.F.andH.A.Money,eds., PhysiologicalEcologyofNorthAmericanPlantCommunities.ChapmanandHall,New York,351pp. Smith,W.K.,M.J.Germino,T.E.Hancock,andD.M.Johnson.2003.Anotherperspectiveon altitudinallimitsofalpinetimberlines.TreePhysiology23:1101‐1112. Uchytil,R.J.1991.PiceaengelmanniiandAbieslasiocarpa.In:FireEffectsInformation System, Online .U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture,ForestService,RockyMountain ResearchStation,FireSciencesLaboratory Producer .Available: http://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/ 73 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 OAK-MIXED MOUNTAIN SHRUB Climate Influences Ingeneral,theupperandlowerelevationallimitsofGambeloak Quercusgambelii shrublandarebelievedtobecontrolledbytemperatureandmoisturestress.Neilsonand Wullstein 1983 foundthatseedlingmortalitywasprimarilyduetospringfreezing, grazing,orsummerdroughtstress.Atmorenorthernlatitudes,thezoneoftolerablecold stressisfoundatlowerelevations,but,atthesametime,theareaswheresummermoisture stressistolerableareathigherelevations.NeilsonandWullstein 1983 hypothesizethat thenortherndistributionallimitofGambeloakcorrespondstothepointwherethesetwo opposingfactorsconverge.Oakshrublandsaretypicallyfoundinareaswithmeanannual temperaturesbetween7and10C 12.6‐18.0F;Harperetal.1985 .Athigher,cooler elevations,acornproductionmaybelimitedbytheshortnessofthegrowingseason,and mostreproductionislikelytobevegetative Christensen1949 .Warmingtemperatures mayincreasebothacornproductionandseedlingsurvival. Oaksaremostlikelytodowellunderwarmertemperatures,althoughdroughtsandlate frostsmayaffectthefrequencyofestablishmentthroughseedlingrecruitmentbyreducing theacorncropinsomeyears. Exposure and Sensitivity Summary Oakandmixedmountainshrublandsareprojectedtoexperiencetemperatureswarmer thanthecurrentrangeinmorethanonethirdofthecurrentdistribution,aswellasashift toearlierdateoflastspringfrostinsomeareas.Projectedspringandsummerprecipitation levelsareprojectedtobelowerthanthedriestendofthecurrentrangeforasmallpartof thecurrentdistribution. 74 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Oak % projected Climate variable (sources: M=model, E = expert review, L = literature review) range shift Spring precipitation (M, E) 8% Summer precipitation (M, E, L) 13% Drought days (M, L) 6% Date of last frost in spring (M, E, L) ‐8% Mean annual temperature (L) 38% Average range shift 13.4% Rank L Exposure‐Sensitivity level Low Resilience Components OakandmixedmountainshrublandsarewidespreadinthewesternhalfofColorado,and alongthesouthernstretchofthemountainfrontatelevationsfromabout6,000‐9,000feet. Theelevationrangeofthishabitatissimilartothatofponderosapine,andthesehabitats areoftenadjacent.StandsdominatedbyGambeloakarecommoninthesouthernpartof Colorado,butarecompletelyinterspersedwithstandsdominatedbyothershrubspecies, especiallyserviceberry Amelanchierspp. withmahogany Cercocarpusspp. athigher elevations.Thesehabitatsarenotlimitedtohigherelevations,andarenotatthesouthern extentoftheirNorthAmericandistributioninColorado.Averageannualprecipitationfor oakshrublandisabout12‐32in 30‐80cm ,withameanof21.5in 52cm .Precipitation amountsformixedmountainshrublandareprobablyslightlyhigher.Growingseasonis similartothatofponderosaandhigherelevationsagebrush. Gambeloakreproducesprimarilybysproutingofnewstems,especiallyafterdisturbances suchaslogging,fire,andgrazing,althoughrecruitmentfromseedlingsdoesoccur Brown 1958,Harperetal.1985 .TheextensiveclonalrootsystemofGambeloakisaprimary contributortoitsabilitytosurviveduringperiodswhenseedlingestablishmentis impossible.Historicnaturalfirereturnintervalswereontheorderof100yearsinMesa Verde Floydetal.2000 ;undersuchconditionsoflowfirefrequency,vulnerablenewly sproutedstemsareabletopersistandformdensethickets. Non‐oakdominatedmontaneshrublandsareofvariablespeciescomposition,dependingon siteconditionssuchaselevation,slope,aspect,soiltype,moistureavailability,andpast history.Speciespresentmayincludemountainmahogany Cercocarpusmontanus , 75 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 skunkbushsumac Rhustrilobata ,clifffendlerbush Fendlerarupicola ,antelope bitterbrush Purshiatridentata ,wildcrabapple Peraphyllumramosissimum ,snowberry Symphoricarposspp. ,andserviceberry Amelanchierspp. .Mostofthesespecies reproducebothvegetativelyandbyseedlingrecruitment,aswellasresproutingeasilyafter fire.Variabledisturbancepatternsmayaccountforthelocaldominanceofaparticular species Keeley2000 .Althoughfireisanobvioussourceofdisturbanceinthese shrublands,snowpackmovements creep,glide,andslippage mayalsoprovidesignificant disturbanceinslide‐proneareas Jamiesonetal.1996 . Insomeareas,oakstandsarevulnerabletoincreasedprevalenceofinvasivespeciessuch ascheatgrassandknapweeds.Currentlytherearefewinvasivesinthestandsdominatedby serviceberryandmahogany.Theseshrublandsarehighlyfiretolerant.Itispossibleforthis systemtomoveupinelevation,especiallyiffiresopenupsomeoftheadjacentforested ecosystems. Adaptive Capacity Summary Oak Range and biophysical envelope Dispersal & growth form Biological stressors 0.89 1 1 Extreme Landscape events condition 1 0.49 Resilience ‐ Adaptive capacity score Rank Resilience Level 0.85 H High Vulnerability to Climate Change Exposure ‐ Sensitivity Oak & mixed mountain shrub Resilience – Adaptive Combined Overall vulnerability to Capacity rank climate change Low High L/H Low Oakandmixedmountainshrublandsarerankedashavinglowvulnerabilitytotheeffects ofclimatechangebymid‐centuryunderamoderateemissionsscenario.Primaryfactors contributingtothisrankingarethewideecologicalamplitudeoftheseshrublandsin Colorado,andtheirabilitytowithstandorrecoverfromdisturbancerelativelyquickly, whichoffsetsthelowerlandscapeconditionscoreduetopastanthropogenicdisturbance levels. Mapsbelowillustratethespatialpatternofexposureundertheworstcasescenarioforthe fiveclimatevariablesassessedforoakandmixedmountainshrubhabitats.Legend 76 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 pointersindicatetherangeofchangeforthishabitatwithinthestatewideextentofchange. Precipitationduringthegrowingseasonisprojectedtodecreasemostinthesouthernand easternportionsofthedistributionofthishabitatwithinColorado,althoughitislikelyto remainwellwithinthetoleranceoftheseshrublands.Theprojectedshiftto1‐2weeks earlierlastfrostsinspringwouldbebeneficialforthishabitat,andalthoughannualmean temperaturesareprojectedtoincreasebyatleast2°Cinthehottestscenario,thisisalso likelytoremainwithinthetoleranceofmostoccurrences. 77 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 78 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 79 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 References: Brown,H.E.1958.Gambeloakinwest‐centralColorado.Ecology39:317‐327. Christensen,E.M.1949.Theecologyandgeographicdistributionofoakbrush Quercus gambelii inUtah.SaltLakeCity,UT:UniversityofUtah.70p.Thesis. Clary,W.P.andA.R.Tiedemann.1992.EcologyandvaluesofGambeloakwoodlands.In: Ffolliott,P.F.,G.J.Gottfried,D.A.Bennett andothers ,technicalcoordinators.Ecology andmanagementofoaksandassociatedwoodlands:perspectivesinthesouthwestern UnitedStatesandnorthernMexico:Proceedings;1992April27‐30;SierraVista,AZ. Gen.Tech.Rep.RM‐218.FortCollins,CO:U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture,ForestService, RockyMountainForestandRangeExperimentStation:87‐95 Floyd,M.L.,W.H.Romme,andD.D.Hanna.2000.Firehistoryandvegetationpatternin MesaVerdeNationalPark,Colorado,USA.EcologicalApplications10:1666‐1680. Harper,K.T.,F.J.Wagstaff,andL.M.Kunzler.1985.BiologymanagementoftheGambeloak vegetativetype:aliteraturereview.Gen.Tech.Rep.INT‐179.Ogden,UT:U.S. DepartmentofAgriculture,ForestService,IntermountainForestandRangeExperiment Station.31p. Jamieson,D.W.,W.H.Romme,andP.Somers.1996.Bioticcommunitiesofthecool mountains.Chapter12inTheWesternSanJuanMountains:TheirGeology,Ecology, andHumanHistory,R.Blair,ed.UniversityPressofColorado,Niwot,CO. Keeley,J.E.2000.Chaparral.Chapter6inNorthAmericanTerrestrialVegetation,second edition.M.G.BarbourandW.D.Billings,eds.CambridgeUniversityPress. Neilson,R.P.andL.H.Wullstein.1983.BiogeographyoftwosouthwestAmericanoaksin relationtoatmosphericdynamics.JournalofBiogeography10:275‐297. 80 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 SAGEBRUSH Climate Influences Asevaluatedherein,thethreesubspeciesofbigsagebrush basinbigsagebrush,Artemisia tridentatassp.tridentata,mountainbigsagebrush,A.tridentatassp.vaseyana,and Wyomingbigsagebrush,A.tridentatassp.wyomingensis arecombinedassagebrush habitat.Ingeneral,Wyomingbigsagebrushisfoundindrier,warmerareaswhere precipitationismorelikelytobeintheformofrain,whilemountainbigsagebrushisfound athigher,coolerelevationswheresnowisthedominantformofprecipitation Howard 1999,Johnson2000 .Changesintemperatureandprecipitationpatternsmayresultin shiftsintherelativeabundanceanddistributionofthethreesubspecies. Bradley 2010 pointsoutthatsagebrushshrublandsinthewesternU.S.arecurrently foundacrossawidelatitudinalgradient fromabout35to48degreesnorthlatitude , whichsuggestsadaptationtoacorrespondinglywiderangeoftemperatureconditions. However,becausetheseshrublandsareapparentlyabletodominateazoneofprecipitation betweendriersaltbushshrublandsandhigher,somewhatmoremesicpinyon‐juniper woodland,thedistributionofsagebrushshrublandsislikelytobeaffectedbychangesin precipitationpatterns Bradley2010 .Seasonaltimingofprecipitationisimportantfor sagebrushhabitats;summermoisturestressmaybelimitingifwinterprecipitationislow GerminoandReinhardt2014 .Seedlingsofmountainbigsagebrushweremoresensitive tofreezingunderreducedsoilmoistureconditions Lambrechtetal.2007 . Underexperimentalwarmingconditionsinahigh‐elevationpopulation,mountainbig sagebrushhadincreasedgrowth,suggestingthatlongergrowingseasonlengthcould facilitatetheexpansionofsagebrushhabitatintoareasthatwereformerlytoocoldforthe shrub Perforsetal.2003 .However,Pooreetal. 2009 foundthathighsummer temperaturesresultedinlowergrowthrate,duetoincreasedwaterstress.Winter snowpackwascriticalforsagebrushgrowth;lowerelevationsareprobablyatmorerisk fromtemperatureimpactsincomparisontoupperelevationsduetolesssnowand, consequentlygreaterwaterstress. Schlaepferetal. 2012 modeledfuturedistributionofthebigsagebrushecosysteminthe westernU.S.Overtheentirestudyarea,sagebrushdistributionwaspredictedtodecrease, especiallyunderhigherCO2emissionsscenarios.Thestrongestdecreasesareinthe southernpartoftherange,whilethedistributionispredictedtoincreaseathigher elevationsandinmorenorthernareas. 81 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Exposure and Sensitivity Summary Sagebrushshrublandsareprojectedtoexperienceanincreaseinnumberofveryhotdays incomparisonwiththecurrentrangeinmorethanonequarterofthecurrentdistribution, andfallfrostdatesarelikelytobelaterforsomeareasaswell.Projectedwinter precipitationlevelsaregenerallywithinthecurrentrange,butspringandsummer precipitationfor6‐12%ofthecurrentdistributionareprojectedtobelowerthanthedriest endofthecurrentrange. Sagebrush % projected Climate variable (sources: M=model, E = expert review, L = literature review) range shift Winter precipitation (L) 0% Spring precipitation (E, L) 6% Summer precipitation (M, E, L) 12% Date of first frost in fall (E) 13% Very hot days (M) 27% Average range shift 11.7% Rank L Exposure‐Sensitivity level Low Resilience Components Theseshrublandsareprimarilyfoundinthewesternpartofthestate,atelevationsfrom about5,000to9,500ft.TheNorthAmericandistributionofsagebrushhabitatislargelyto thewestandnorthofColorado.Thethreesubspeciesofbigsagebrushshowanelevational separation,withmountainbigsagebrushinwetter,coolerconditionsofhigherelevations, andWyomingbigsagebrushinthewarmestanddriestconditionsatlowerelevations Howard1999 .Duetotheadaptationsofthevarioussubspecies,therangeofannual averageprecipitationforsagebrushhabitatsisfairlywide,fromabout8‐40in 20‐100cm , withameanof18in 45cm .Growingseasonheataccumulationisalsohighlyvariable acrosstherangeofthehabitat,forthesamereason. Becausethesearegenerallyshrublandsoflowerelevations,theyarenotexpectedtobe limitedbyarequirementforcooler,highelevationhabitat.Althoughsagebrushisgenerally apoorseeder,withsmalldispersaldistances,therearenoapparentbarrierstodispersal 82 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 fortheseshrublands.Thesestandsmayalsobesomewhatvulnerabletochangesin phenology. Otherstressorsforsagebrushshrublandsareinvasionbycheatgrassandexpansionof pinyon‐juniperwoodlands.Thereisamoderatepotentialforinvasionbyknapweed species,oxeyedaisy,leafyspurge,andyellowtoadflaxunderchangingclimaticconditions, andapotentialforchangingfiredynamicstoaffecttheecosystem.Thereisnoinformation onthevulnerabilityofthisecosystemtoinsectordiseaseoutbreak. Althoughsagebrushtoleratesdryconditionsandfairlycooltemperaturesitisnotfire adapted,andnoneofthesubspeciesresproutafterfire Tirmenstein1999 .Sagebrush shrublandislikelytobeseverelyimpactedbyintensefiresthatenhancewinderosionand eliminatetheseedbank YoungandEvans1989 .Increaseddroughtmayincreasefire frequencyandseverity,eliminatingsagebrushinsomeareas,especiallyatdriersitesof lowerelevations.Increasedfirefrequencyandseverityintheseshrublandsmayresultin theirconversiontograsslandsdominatedbyexoticspecies. Adaptive Capacity Summary Sagebrush Range and biophysical envelope Dispersal & growth form Biological stressors 0.93 0.5 0.67 Extreme Landscape events condition 0.33 0.53 Resilience ‐ Adaptive capacity score Rank Resilience Level 0.57 M Moderate Vulnerability to Climate Change Exposure ‐ Sensitivity Sagebrush shrubland Resilience – Adaptive Combined Overall vulnerability to Capacity rank climate change Low Moderate L/M Low Sagebrushshrublandsarerankedashavinglowvulnerabilitytotheeffectsofclimate changebymid‐centuryunderamoderateemissionsscenario.Theprimaryfactor contributingtothisrankingistheprojectedlowexposuretowarmeranddrierfuture conditionsinthepartofColoradowherethegreaterportionofthishabitatisfound.The combinationofthethreebigsagebrushsubspeciesinouranalysiscollectivelygivesthis habitattypeawideecologicalamplitude.Underamoresevereemissionsscenario,these 83 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 shrublandswouldhavehighervulnerability,similartotheassessmentofPocewiczetal. 2014 forsagebrushhabitatsinWyoming. Mapsbelowillustratethespatialpatternofexposureundertheworstcasescenarioforthe fiveclimatevariablesassessedforsagebrushhabitats.Legendpointersindicatetherange ofchangeforthishabitatwithinthestatewideextentofchange.Winterandspring precipitationlevelsareprojectedtodecreasethemostinthesouthwesternpartofthe Coloradodistributionofsagebrush,whilethemajorityoftheseshrublandsinnorthwestern Coloradomayseelittlechange.Summerprecipitationshowsthegreatestprojected decreaseintheeasternpartsofthehabitatdistribution,especiallyinthehigh intermountainvalleys.InportionsofthedistributionfromtheGunnisonvalleyuptoNorth Park,averagedatesoffirstfallfrostcouldbeshifted1‐4weekslaterthancurrentmeans. WiththeexceptionoftheextremesouthwestcornerofColorado,sagebrushshrublandsin thestatemayexperienceonlyaslightincreaseinthenumberofveryhotdays.These trendstendtoindicatethatlowerelevationsagebrushstandsinthesouthernpartof Coloradoaremostvulnerable. 84 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 85 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 86 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 References: Bradley,B.A.2010.Assessingecosystemthreatsfromglobalandregionalchange: hierarchicalmodelingofrisktosagebrushecosystemsfromclimatechange,landuse andinvasivespeciesinNevada,USA.Ecography33:198‐208. Germino,M.J.andK.Reinhardt.2014.Desertshrubresponsestoexperimentalmodification ofprecipitationseasonalityandsoildepth:relationshiptothetwo‐layerhypothesisand ecohydrologicalniche.JournalofEcology102:989‐997. Howard,J.L.1999.Artemisiatridentatasubsp.wyomingensis.In:FireEffectsInformation System, Online .U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture,ForestService,RockyMountain ResearchStation,FireSciencesLaboratory Producer .Available: http://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/ Johnson,K.A.2000.Artemisiatridentatasubsp.vaseyana.In:FireEffectsInformation System, Online .U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture,ForestService,RockyMountain ResearchStation,FireSciencesLaboratory Producer .Available: http://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/ Lambrecht,S.C.,A.K.Shattuck,andM.E.Loik.2007.Combineddroughtandepisodic freezingonseedlingsoflow‐andhigh‐elevationsubspeciesofsagebrush Artemisia tridentata .PhysiologiaPlantarum130:207‐217. Perfors,T.,J.Harte,andS.E.Alter.2003.Enhancedgrowthofsagebrush Artemisia tridentata inresponsetomanipulatedecosystemwarming.GlobalChangeBiology 9:736‐742. Pocewicz,A.,H.E.Copeland,M.B.Grenier,D.A.Keinath,andL.M.Waskoviak.2014. AssessingthefuturevulnerabilityofWyoming’sterrestrialwildlifespeciesandhabitats. ReportpreparedbyTheNatureConservancy,WyomingGameandFishDepartmentand WyomingNaturalDiversityDatabase. Poore,R.E.,C.A.Lamanna,J.J.Ebersole,andB.J.Enquist.2009.Controlsonradialgrowthof mountainbigsagebrushandimplicationsforclimatechange.WesternNorthAmerican Naturalist69:556‐562. Schlaepfer,D.R.,W.K.Lauenroth,andJ.B.Bradford.2012.Effectsofecohydrological variablesoncurrentandfutureranges,localsuitabilitypatterns,andmodelaccuracyin bigsagebrush.Ecography35:374‐384. Tirmenstein,D.1999.Artemisiatridentataspp.tridentata.In:FireEffectsInformation System, Online .U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture,ForestService,RockyMountain 87 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 ResearchStation,FireSciencesLaboratory Producer .Available: http://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/ Young,J.A.andR.A.Evans.1989.Dispersalandgerminationofbigsagebrush Artemisia tridentata seeds.WeedScience37:201‐206. 88 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 SANDSAGE Climate Influences Thishabitathasoftenbeentreatedasanedaphicvariantofeasternplainsmixed‐grass prairie Albertson&Weaver1944,Daley1972, ,orofshortgrassprairie Ramaley1939, SimsandRisser2000 .Sandsage Artemisiafilifolia formsextensiveopenshrublandsin sandysoilsofColorado’seasternplains,andisofparticularimportanceforbothgreater andlesserprairiechickenhabitat,aswellasforothergrasslandbirds.IneasternColorado, thissystemisfoundinextensivetractsonQuaternaryeoliandepositsalongtheSouth Platte,ArikareeandRepublicanRivers,betweenBigSandyandRushCreeks,andalongthe ArkansasandCimarronRivers,whereitiscontiguouswithareasinKansasandOklahoma Comeretal.2003 .Duringthepast10,000years,theseareasarelikelytohavefluctuated betweenactivedunefieldsandstabilized,vegetateddunes,dependingonclimateand disturbancepatterns Formanetal.2001 .Extendedperiodsofseveredroughtorother disturbancethatresultsinlossofstabilizingvegetationcanquicklyleadtosoilmovement andblowoutsthatinhibitvegetationre‐establishment,andmayeventuallyleadto dramaticallydifferentspeciescomposition. Littleisknownaboutthetoleranceofsandsageforsoilsotherthanwell‐drainedsandwith alowsiltandclaycomponent.Suchsoilsareoften“droughty”,withreducedwater‐holding ability,andconsequently,thepotentialforincreasedwaterstresstoresidentplants Soil SurveyDivisionStaff1993 .RasmussenandBrotherson 1984 speculatedthatsandsage isadaptedtolessfertilesoilsthanspeciesofadjacentgrasslandcommunities.Ramaley 1939 indicatedthatthepersistenceofsandsagewasfacilitatedbyfireandlong overgrazing,intheabsenceofwhichasitewouldtransitiontosandprairie.However,there isnoevidencetosuggestthat,undercertaincombinationsoftemperature,precipitation, grazing,andotherdisturbance,sandsagewouldbeunabletoexpandontoothersoiltypes. SandsageoccurrencesinsouthernColoradohavehistoricallyexperiencedalonggrowing season,lowannualprecipitation,andseasonaldifferencesinprecipitationpatternsfrom northtosouth WesternRegionalClimateCenter2004 .North‐southgradientsin temperatureandprecipitationonColorado’seasternplainsappeartobereflectedinthe speciescompositionofsandsagehabitat,especiallyinmidgrassspecies Daley1972 , whichmaycontributetovariablevulnerabilitybetweennorthernandsouthernstands. Thishabitatiswelladaptedtosandysoils,andmaybeabletoexpandintoadjacentareas underwarmer,drierconditions,dependingondisturbanceinteractions.Overallcondition andcompositionoftheseshrublandsmaychangewithchangingclimate. 89 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Exposure and Sensitivity Summary Sandsageshrublandsareprojectedtoexperiencetemperatureswarmerthanthecurrent rangeinmostofthecurrentdistribution,includinganincreaseinnumberofveryhotdays. Projectedwinterandspringprecipitationlevelsareprojectedtobelowerthanthedriest endofthecurrentrangefor15‐19%ofthedistribution,anddroughtdaysareprojectedto increaseinadditionalareas. Sandsage % projected Climate variable (sources: M=model, E = expert review, L = literature review) range shift Winter precipitation (M, E) 19% Spring precipitation (E) 15% Drought days (M) 29% Growing degree days ‐ base 0 (L) 84% Very hot days (L) 87% Average range shift 46.7% Rank H Exposure‐Sensitivity level High Resilience Components SandsagehabitatdominatessandysoilsofColorado’seasternplains,atelevationsgenerally below5,500ft.Inotherstates,sandsageisknowntooccurupto6,000ft. McWilliams 2003 .Sandsagesharesthedryandwarmclimateofshortgrass.Annualaverage precipitationisontheorderof10‐18inches 25‐47cm ,withameanof16in 40cm .The growingseasonisgenerallylong,withfrequenthightemperatures. Sagebrushspeciesingeneralhavepoordispersalability,withmostseedslandingcloseto theparentplant McWilliams2003 .Althoughsandsagedoesnotreproducevegetatively, itisabletoresproutafterfire.Fireextentandintensityarecorrelatedwithclimateand grazingeffectsonfuelloads.Fireandgrazingarebothimportantdisturbanceprocessesfor sandsagehabitat,andmayinteractwithdrought,aswellaspermittinginvasiveexotic plantspeciestoestablishandspread.Asignificantportionofthishabitathasbeen convertedfrommidgrasstoshortgrasssandsagecommunity,inlargepartduetolong‐ termcontinuousgrazingbydomesticlivestock LANDFIRE2006 . 90 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Adaptive Capacity Summary Sandsage Range and biophysical envelope Dispersal & growth form Biological stressors 0.65 1 0.67 Extreme Landscape events condition 1 0.43 Resilience ‐ Adaptive capacity score Rank Resilience Level 0.74 H High Vulnerability to Climate Change Exposure ‐ Sensitivity Sandsage shrubland Resilience – Adaptive Combined Overall vulnerability to Capacity rank climate change High High H/H Moderate Sandsageshrublandsarerankedmoderatelyvulnerabletotheeffectsofclimatechangeby mid‐centuryunderamoderateemissionsscenario.Thisrankingisprimarilyduetothe concentrationofgreatestexposureforalltemperaturevariablesontheeasternplainsof Colorado,wherethesehabitatsarefound.Inaddition,anthropogenicdisturbanceinthese shrublandshasreducedtheoveralllandscapeconditionofthehabitat. Mapsbelowillustratethespatialpatternofexposureundertheworstcasescenarioforthe fiveclimatevariablesassessedforsandsagehabitats.Legendpointersindicatetherangeof changeforthishabitatwithinthestatewideextentofchange.Underthedriestfuture projections,decreaseinwinterprecipitationisgenerallylessthan1cm,withintherangeof theseshrublandsinColorado,whilethedecreaseinspringprecipitationisgreater,at1‐2 cm.Easternsandsagestandsmayexperienceseveralfewerdaysofmeasurable precipitationperyear.ThegreatestprojectedchangeforsandsageshrublandsinColorado isinveryhotdaysandgrowingseasonlength,bothofwhichshowasubstantialincrease, especiallyinthesoutheasternpartofthestate. 91 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 92 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 93 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 References: Albertson,F.W.andJ.E.Weaver.1944.Natureanddegreeofrecoveryofgrasslandfromthe GreatDroughtof1933to1940.EcologicalMonographs14:393‐479. Comer,P.,S.Menard,M.Tuffly,K.Kindscher,R.Rondeau,G.Jones,G.Steinuaer,andD.Ode. 2003.UplandandWetlandEcologicalSystemsinColorado,Wyoming,SouthDakota, Nebraska,andKansas.Reportandmap 10hectareminimummapunit totheNational GapAnalysisProgram.Dept.ofInteriorUSGS.NatureServe. Daley,R.H.1972.ThenativesandsagevegetationofeasternColorado.M.S.Thesis, ColoradoStateUniversity,FortCollins,Colorado. Forman,S.L.,R.Oblesby,andR.S.Webb.2001.TemporalandspatialpatternsofHolocene duneactivityontheGreatPlainsofNorthAmerica:megadroughtsandclimatelinks. GlobalandPlanetaryChange29:1‐29. LANDFIRE.2006.LANDFIREBiophysicalSettingModels.BiophysicalSetting3310940, WesternGreatPlainsSandhillSteppe.USDAForestService;U.S.DepartmentofInterior. Availableat:http://www.landfire.gov/national_veg_models_op2.php 94 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 McWilliams,J.2003.ArtemisiafilifoliaIn:FireEffectsInformationSystem, Online .U.S. DepartmentofAgriculture,ForestService,RockyMountainResearchStation,Fire SciencesLaboratory Producer .Available:http://www.fs.fed.us/database/feis/ Ramaley,F.1939.Sand‐hillvegetationofnortheasternColorado.EcologicalMonographs 9 1 :1‐51 Rasmussen,L.L.andJ.D.Brotherson.1986.Habitatrelationshipsofsandsage Artemisia filifolia insouthernUtah.In:McArthur,E.D.,andB.L.Welch,compilers.Proceedings‐‐ symposiumonthebiologyofArtemisiaandChrysothamnus;1984July9‐13;Provo,UT. Gen.Tech.Rep.INT‐200.Ogden,UT:U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture,ForestService, IntermountainResearchStation:58‐66. Sims,P.L.,andP.G.Risser.2000.Grasslands.In:Barbour,M.G.,andW.D.Billings,eds.,North AmericanTerrestrialVegetation,SecondEdition.CambridgeUniversityPress,New York,pp.323‐356. SoilSurveyDivisionStaff.1993.Soilsurveymanual.SoilConservationService.U.S. DepartmentofAgricultureHandbook18.Availableat: http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/soils/ref/?cid nrcs142p2_054261 WesternRegionalClimateCenter WRCC .2004.ClimateofColoradonarrativeandstate climatedata.Availableathttp://www.wrcc.dri.edu 95 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 FOOTHILL AND MOUNTAIN GRASSLAND Climate Influences Colorado’snon‐shortgrassprairiegrasslandsarehighlyvariable,dependingonelevation andlatitude.Foothillorpiedmontgrasslandsarefoundattheextremewesternedgeofthe GreatPlainsatelevationsbetween5,250and7,200feet,whereincreasingelevationand precipitationfacilitatethedevelopmentofmixedtotallgrassassociationsoncertainsoils. Montane‐subalpinegrasslandsintheColoradoRockiesarefoundatelevationsof7,200‐ 10,000feet,intermixedwithstandsofspruce‐fir,lodgepole,ponderosa,andaspen,oras thematrixcommunityinthelargeintermountainbasinofSouthPark.Semi‐desert grasslandsarefoundprimarilyondryplainsandmesasinwesternColoradoatelevations of4,750‐7,600feet.Ourvulnerabilityanalysisdividedgrasslandsintothoseaboveand below7,500feet,roughlydividingmontane‐subalpineoccurrencesfromtheeasternand westernlowerelevationgrasslandtypes. Higherelevationgrasslandsarecharacterizedbycoldwintersandrelativelycoolsummers, althoughtemperaturesaremoremoderateatlowerelevations.Soiltextureisimportantin explainingtheexistenceofmontane‐subalpinegrasslands Peet2000 .Montanegrasslands oftenoccupythefine‐texturedalluvialorcolluvialsoilsofvalleybottoms,incontrasttothe coarse,rockymaterialofadjacentforestedslopes Peet2000 .Otherfactorsthatmay explaintheabsenceoftreesinthissystemaresoilmoisture toomuchortoolittle , competitionfromestablishedherbaceousspecies,coldairdrainageandfrostpockets,high snowaccumulation,beaveractivity,slowrecoveryfromfire,andsnowslides Daubenmire 1943,Knight1994,Peet2000 .Wheregrasslandsoccurintermixedwithforestedareas,the lesspronouncedenvironmentaldifferencesmeanthattreesaremorelikelytoinvade TurnerandPaulsen1976 . WestSlopelow‐elevationgrasslandsoccurinsemi‐aridtoaridclimateswithcold temperateconditions.Hotsummersandcoldwinterswithfreezingtemperaturesandsnow arecommon.Grasslandsofthewesternvalleysreceiveasignificantportionofannual precipitationinJulythroughOctoberduringthesummermonsoonstorms,withtherest fallingassnowduringthewinterandearlyspringmonths.Foothillgrasslandsofthe easternmountainfronthaveacontinentalclimatewithbotheast‐westandnorth‐south gradients.Alongthewesternedgeoftheplains,theRockyMountainscreatearainshadow totheeast.Precipitationrapidlyincreaseswithincreasingelevation.Severedroughtisalso acommonphenomenonintheWesternGreatPlains Borchert1950,StocktonandMeko 1983,Covitchetal.1997 .Temperaturevariationinthefoothillzoneislessthanonthe 96 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 plains,withlowersummertemperaturesandhigherwintertemperaturesproducinga climateismoremoderatethanthatforgrasslandstotheeast WesternRegionalClimate Center2004 . Droughtandwarmertemperaturesmaychangespeciescomposition,orallowinvasionby drought‐toleranttrees/shrubsorinvasivespeciesinsomeareas.Droughtcanincrease extentofbaregroundanddecreaseforbcoverage,especiallyinmorexericgrasslands Debinskietal2010 ,whichcouldresultinatransformationtoasemi‐desertgrassland type. Exposure and Sensitivity Summary Foothillandmontanegrasslandsareprojectedtoexperiencebothsummerandwinter temperaturesthatarewarmerthanthecurrentrangeinabouthalfofthecurrent distribution,moresoinlowerelevationgrasslands.Althoughprojectedwinter precipitationlevelsaregenerallywithinthecurrentrange,annualprecipitationlevelsare projectedtobelowerthanthedriestendofthecurrentrangefornearlyhalfofthelower elevationdistribution,anddroughtdaysareprojectedtoincreaseinadditionalareas. High elevation grasslands Low elevation grasslands % projected Climate variable range shift Winter precipitation 0% 1% Annual precipitation 7% 44% Drought days 5% 22% Mean winter temperature 44% 64% Mean summer temperature 55% 65% 22.1% 39.1% M H Moderate High Average range shift Rank Exposure‐Sensitivity level Resilience Components Thesefoothillandmontanegrasslandsarenotrestrictedtohighelevations,andarenotat thesouthernedgeoftheirNorthAmericandistributioninColorado. 97 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Climaticvariation,fireexclusion,andgrazingappeartointeractwithedaphicfactorsto facilitateorhindertreeinvasioninthesegrasslands ZierandBaker2006 .Theworkof CoopandGivnish 2007 intheJemezMountainsofnorthernNewMexicosuggeststhat bothchangingdisturbanceregimesandclimaticfactorsarelinkedtotreeestablishmentin somemontanegrasslands.Increasedtreeinvasionintomontanegrasslandswasapparently linkedtohighersummernighttimetemperatures,andlessfrostdamagetotreeseedlings; thistrendcouldcontinueunderprojectedfuturetemperatureincreases.Theinteractionof multiplefactorsindicatesthatmanagementforthemaintenanceofthesemontaneand subalpinegrasslandsmaybecomplex. Floristiccompositioningrasslandsisinfluencedbybothenvironmentalfactorsandgrazing history.Manygrasslandoccurrencesarealreadyhighlyalteredfrompre‐settlement condition.Grazingisgenerallybelievedtoleadtothereplacementofpalatablespecieswith lesspalatableonesmoreabletowithstandgrazingpressure Smith1967,Paulsen1975, Brown1994,butseeStohlgrenetal.1999 .Grazingbydomesticlivestockmayactto overrideormaskwhatevernaturalclimaticoredaphicmechanismisresponsiblefor maintaininganoccurrence.Thishabitatisalsoadaptedtograzingandbrowsingbynative herbivoresincludingdeer,elk,bison,andpronghorn,aswellasburrowingandgrazingby smallmammalssuchasgophers,prairiedogs,rabbits,andgroundsquirrels.Activitiesof theseanimalscaninfluencebothvegetationstructureandsoildisturbance,potentially suppressingtreeestablishment.Periodicdroughtiscommonintherangeoffoothilland semi‐desertgrasslands,butmaynotbeasgreatafactorinthevegetationdynamicsofthis systemasingrasslandsoftheplains. Adaptive Capacity Summary Resilience Dispersal Range and & ‐ Adaptive biophysical growth Biological Extreme Landscape capacity Resilience envelope form stressors events condition score Rank Level High elevation grasslands 0.82 1 0.33 0.67 0.37 0.64 M Moderate Low elevation grasslands 0.71 1 0.33 0.67 0.37 0.62 M Moderate 98 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Vulnerability to Climate Change Resilience – Adaptive Combined Overall vulnerability to Foothill & mountain grassland Exposure ‐ Sensitivity Capacity rank climate change High elevation Moderate Moderate M/M Moderate Low elevation High Moderate H/M High Foothillandmountaingrasslandsofelevationsabove7,500ft.arerankedasmoderately vulnerabletotheeffectsofclimatechangebymid‐centuryunderamoderateemissions scenario,andthosebelow7,500ft.havehighvulnerability.Primaryfactorscontributingto thisrankingarevulnerabilityoftheseareatoinvasivespecies,andthegenerallyhighly disturbedconditionofoccurrences,bothofwhicharelikelytointeractwiththesignificant increasesintemperatureacrossmuchofthedistributionofthehabitatinColoradoto reduceresilienceofthesehabitats. NOTE:duetothegenerallysmallsizeofmontane‐foothillgrasslandoccurrences,exposure mapswerenotproducedforthishabitat. References: Borchert,J.R.1950.TheclimateofthecentralNorthAmericangrassland.Annalsofthe AssociationofAmericanGeographers40:1‐39. Brown,D.E.1994.Grasslands.InBioticcommunities:southwesternUnitedStatesand northwesternMexico.D.E.Brown,ed.UniversityofUtahPress,SaltLakeCity,Utah. Coop,J.D.andT.J.Givnish.2007.Spatialandtemporalpatternsofrecentforest encroachmentinmontanegrasslandsoftheVallesCaldera,NewMexico,USA.Journalof Biogeography34:914‐927. Covich,A.P.,S.C.Fritz,P.J.Lamb,R.D.Marzolf,W.J.Matthews,K.A.Poiani,E.E.Prepas,M.B. Richman,andT.C.Winter.1997.Potentialeffectsofclimatechangeonaquatic ecosystemsoftheGreatPlainsofNorthAmerica.HydrologicalProcesses11:993‐1021. Daubenmire,R.F.1943.VegetationalzonationintheRockyMountains.BotanicalReview 9:325‐393. Debinski,D.M.,H.Wickham,K.Kindscher,J.C.Caruthers,andM.Germino.2010.Montane meadowchangeduringdroughtvarieswithbackgroundhydrologicregimeandplant functionalgroup.Ecology91:1672‐1681. 99 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Knight,D.H.1994.MountainsandPlains:theEcologyofWyomingLandscapes.Yale UniversityPress,NewHavenandLondon.338pages. Paulsen,H.A.,Jr.1975.RangemanagementinthecentralandsouthernRockyMountains:a summaryofthestatusofourknowledgebyrangeecosystems.USDAForestService ResearchPaperRM‐154.RockyMountainForestandRangeExperimentStation,USDA ForestService,FortCollins,Colorado. Peet,R.K.2000.ForestsandmeadowsoftheRockyMountains.Chapter3inNorth AmericanTerrestrialVegetation,secondedition.M.G.BarbourandW.D.Billings,eds. CambridgeUniversityPress. Smith,D.R.1967.Effectsofcattlegrazingonaponderosapine‐bunchgrassrangein Colorado.USDAForestServiceTechnicalBulletinNo.1371.RockyMountainForestand RangeExperimentStation,USDAForestService,FortCollins,Colorado. Stockton,C.W.andD.M.Meko.1983.DroughtreoccurrenceintheGreatPlainsas reconstructedfromlong‐termtree‐ringrecords.JournalofClimateandApplied Meteorology22:17‐29. Stohlgren,T.J.,L.D.Schell,andB.VandenHuevel.1999.Howgrazingandsoilqualityaffect nativeandexoticplantdiversityinrockymountaingrasslands.EcologicalApplications 9:45‐64. Turner,G.T.,andH.A.Paulsen,Jr.1976.ManagementofMountainGrasslandsintheCentral Rockies:TheStatusofOurKnowledge.USDAForestServiceResearchPaperRM‐161. RockyMountainForestandRangeExperimentStation,USDAForestService,Fort Collins,Colorado. WesternRegionalClimateCenter WRCC .2004.ClimateofColoradonarrativeandstate climatedata.Availableathttp://www.wrcc.dri.edu Zier,J.L.andW.L.Baker.2006.AcenturyofvegetationchangeintheSanJuanMountains, Colorado:Ananalysisusingrepeatphotography.ForestEcologyandManagement 228:251–262. 100 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 SHORTGRASS PRAIRIE Climate Influences Soilmoisturelevelisakeydeterminantofthedistributionofshortgrassprairiehabitat; changeinprecipitationseasonality,amount,orpatternwillaffectsoilmoisture.Grasslands generallyoccurinareaswherethereisatleastoneannualdryseasonandsoilwater availabilityislowerthanthatrequiredfortreegrowth Partonetal.1981,SimsandRisser 2000 .Soilwateravailabilityactsonbothplantwaterstatusandnutrientcycling Salaet al.1992 .Thishabitatreceivesmostofitsannualprecipitationduringthespringand summergrowingseason.Dailyprecipitationamountsaretypicallyquitesmall 5mmor less ,anddonotcontributesignificantlytosoilwaterrecharge,whichinsteadisprimarily dependentonlargebutinfrequentrainfallevents Partonetal.1981,Heisler‐Whiteetal. 2008 .Largerrainfalleventspermitdeepermoisturepenetrationinthesoilprofile,and enableanincreaseinabove‐groundnetprimaryproduction Heisler‐Whiteetal.2008 . Thedominantshortgrassspeciesbluegrama Boutelouagracilis isabletorespondquickly toverysmallrainfallevents,althoughthisabilityisapparentlyreducedduringextended droughtperiods SalaandLauenroth1982,Salaetal.1982,CherwinandKnapp2012 . Nevertheless,bluegramaexhibitedextensivespreadduringthedroughtoftheDustbowl years AlbertsonandWeaver1944 .Iflargerainfalleventsaremorecommon,the sensitivityofshortgrassprairieisreduced CherwinandKnapp2012 . Grasslandsinareaswheremeanannualtemperatureisabove10°Caregenerally dominatedbyC4 warm‐season grassspecies,whicharetolerantofwarmertemperatures andmoreefficientinwateruse SimsandRisser2000 .InColorado,shortgrassprairiehas ahistoricannualmeantemperatureslightlygreaterthan10°C,althoughtherangeincludes slightlycoolerannualmeantemperaturesaswell.Althoughthesegrasslandsareadaptedto warm,dryconditions,Alwardetal. 1999 foundthatwarmingnight‐timetemperaturesin springweredetrimentaltothegrowthofbluegrama,andinsteadfavoredcool‐season C3 species,bothnativeandexotic.Consequently,theeffectofincreasingtemperatureson shortgrassprairieisdifficulttopredict. Warmeranddrierconditionswouldbelikelytoreducesoilwateravailabilityand otherwisehavedetrimentaleffectsonecosystemprocesses,whilewarmerandwetter conditionscouldbefavorable.Furthermore,changingclimatemayleadtoashiftinthe relativeabundanceanddominanceofshortgrassprairiespecies,givingrisetonovelplant communities Polleyetal.2013 .Becausewoodyplantsaremoreresponsivetoelevated CO2,andmayhavetaprootscapableofreachingdeepsoilwater Morganetal.2007 ,an increaseofshrubbyspecies e.g.,cholla,yucca,snakeweed,sandsage ,orinvasiveexotic 101 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 species,especiallyinareasthataredisturbed forinstance,byheavygrazing mayalso result. Exposure and Sensitivity Summary Shortgrassprairieisprojectedtoexperiencespringandsummertemperaturesthatare warmerthanthecurrentrangeinthemajorityofthecurrentdistribution.Projected precipitationlevelsareprojectedtobelowerthanthedriestendofthecurrentrangefor nearlyhalfofthelowerelevationdistribution.Anincreaseindroughtdays,andfewerdays withlargeprecipitationeventsareprojectedforasubstantialportionofthecurrent distributionaswell. Shortgrass prairie % projected Climate variable (sources: M=model, E = expert review, L = literature review) range shift Annual precipitation (L) 43% Days with heavy precipitation (L) 30% Drought days (M, E, L) 38% Mean spring temperature (L) 58% Mean summer temperature (L) 67% Average range shift 41.2% Rank H Exposure‐Sensitivity level High Resilience Components Inspiteofextensiveconversiontoagricultureorotheruses,shortgrassprairiestillforms extensivetractsontheeasternplainsofColorado,atelevationsbelow6,000feet.Colorado accountsforasubstantialportionoftheNorthAmericandistributionofthesegrasslands, whichextendfromTexastoWyoming.Shortgrassprairieexperiencesamuchdrierand warmerclimatethanmostotherhabitattypesinColorado.Annualaverageprecipitationis ontheorderof10‐18inches 25‐47cm ,withameanof15in 38cm ,andthegrowing seasonisgenerallylong,withfrequenthightemperatures. Theshortgrassesthatcharacterizethishabitatareextremelydrought‐andgrazing‐ tolerant.Thesespeciesevolvedwithdroughtandlargeherbivoresand,becauseoftheir stature,arerelativelyresistanttoovergrazing.Fireislessimportantthanherbivoryin 102 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 shortgrasshabitat;thetypicallywarmanddryclimateconditionsacttodecreasethefuel loadandthustherelativefirefrequencywithinthehabitat.Historically,firesthatdidoccur wereoftenextensive;firesuppressionandgrazinghavegreatlychangedthistendency. Morefrequentoccurrenceofclimateextremes e.g.verywetconditionsfollowedbyvery dryconditions couldincreasethefrequencyandextentofgrasslandwildfires Polleyetal. 2013 . Adaptive Capacity Summary Shortgrass Range and biophysical envelope Dispersal & growth form Biological stressors 0.69 1 0.33 Extreme Landscape events condition 0.67 0.44 Resilience ‐ Adaptive capacity score Rank Resilience Level 0.62 M Moderate Vulnerability to Climate Change Exposure ‐ Sensitivity Shortgrass prairie Resilience – Adaptive Combined Overall vulnerability to Capacity rank climate change High Moderate H/M High Shortgrassprairieisrankedashavinghighvulnerabilitytotheeffectsofclimatechangeby mid‐centuryunderamoderateemissionsscenario.Primaryfactorscontributingtothis rankingarethefactthatthesegrasslandsarefoundontheeasternplainsofColorado, wherethegreatestlevelsofexposureforalltemperaturevariablesoccur.Inaddition, anthropogenicdisturbanceinthesegrasslandshasreducedtheoveralllandscapecondition ofthehabitat,whichislikelytoreduceitsresilienceinthefaceofincreasingfrequencyof extremeevents. Mapsbelowillustratethespatialpatternofexposureundertheworstcasescenarioforthe fiveclimatevariablesassessedforshortgrasshabitats.Legendpointersindicatetherange ofchangeforthishabitatwithinthestatewideextentofchange.Forthedriestprojection, annualprecipitationcouldbe4‐8cmlessthancurrentlevels,withareductioninheavy precipitationeventsevenunderwetterscenarios,andincreaseindayswithlittletono measurableprecipitation.Springandsummertemperaturesareprojectedtoincreaseby 2.5‐3°Cinthewarmestscenarioacrossthedistributionofthishabitat,whichislikelyto increasedroughtstressforshortgrassprairie. 103 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 104 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 105 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 References: Albertson,F.W.,andJ.E.Weaver.1944.Natureanddegreeofrecoveryofgrasslandfromthe GreatDroughtof1933to1940.EcologicalMonographs14:393‐479. Alward,R.D.,J.K.Detling,andD.G.Milchunas.1999.Grasslandvegetationchangesand nocturnalglobalwarming.Science238 5399 :229‐231. Cherwin,K.,andA.Knapp.2012.Unexpectedpatternsofsensitivitytodroughtinthree semi‐aridgrasslands.Oecologia169:845‐852. Heisler‐White,J.L.,A.K.Knapp,andE.F.Kelly.2008.Increasingprecipitationeventsize increasesabovegroundnetprimaryproductivityinasemi‐aridgrassland.Oecologia 158:129‐140. Morgan,J.A.,D.G.Milchunas,D.R.LeCain,M.West,andA.R.Mosier.2007.Carbondioxide enrichmentaltersplantcommunitystructureandacceleratesshrubgrowthinthe shortgrasssteppe.PNAS104:14724‐14729. Parton,W.J.,W.K.Lauenroth,andF.M.Smith.1981.Waterlossfromashortgrasssteppe. AgriculturalMeteorology24:97‐109. 106 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Polley,H.W.,D.D.Briske,J.A.Morgan,K.Wolter,D.W.Bailey,andJ.R.Brown.2013.Climate changeandNorthAmericanrangelands:trends,projections,andimplications. RangelandEcology&Management66:493‐511. Sala,O.E.,andW.K.Lauenroth.1982.Smallrainfallevents:anecologicalroleinsemiarid regions.Oecologia53:301‐304. Sala,O.E.,W.K.Lauenroth,andW.J.Parton.1982.Plantrecoveryfollowingprolonged droughtinashortgrasssteppe.AgriculturalMeteorology27:49‐58. Sala,O.E.,W.K.Lauenroth,andW.J.Parton.1992.Long‐termsoilwaterdynamicsinthe shortgrasssteppe.Ecology73:1175‐1181. Sims,P.L.,andP.G.Risser.2000.Grasslands.In:Barbour,M.G.,andW.D.Billings,eds.,North AmericanTerrestrialVegetation,SecondEdition.CambridgeUniversityPress,New York,pp.323‐356. 107 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 PLAYAS Climate Influences PlayasofColorado’seasternplainsaresmall,shallow,isolatedtemporarywetlands,each withinaclosedwatershed.Intheabsenceofanthropogenicdisturbance,playasreceive wateronlyfromprecipitationandassociatedrunoff,andwaterislostthroughevaporation, transpiration,andinfiltration HaukosandSmith2003 .Wetanddryperiodsare dependentonlocalpatternsofprecipitationandtemperaturebothseasonallyandfrom yeartoyear.Incommonwiththesurroundingshortgrassprairiehabitat,playasineastern Coloradoreceivemostoftheirlimitedannualprecipitationintheformofrainduringthe periodAprilthroughSeptember WRCC2004 .Unmodifiedplayasarenormallydryinlate winterandearlyspring Bolenetal.1989 .Mostprecipitationeventsaresmall 5mmor less ,butinfrequentheavyrainfalleventsarecharacteristicoftheregion.Thebiodiversity ofaplayainagivenyearisaproductofbothcurrentandpastconditionsthatpermitthe growthofvegetationfromtheseedbank,andsupportassociatedfauna HaukosandSmith 1993 . Colorado’seasternplainsgenerallyexperiencealargedailyrangeintemperature,and summertemperaturesaregenerallyhigherthaninotherareasofthestate,orequivalentto thewarmestlow‐elevationareasinsouthwestColorado.Thewarm,dryconditionsoflate summerfacilitatetheevaporationofstandingwater,aswellastranspirationbyplaya vegetation.Extendedperiodsofdrought,andattendantduststormsarecharacteristicof theregion WRCC2004 . Changesintheamountandtimingofprecipitation,aswellastheeffectofincreasing temperatureonevapotranspirationratesarelikelytoalterthehydroperiodofindividual playas,and,inaggregate,thenumberanddistributionofplayasonthelandscape Matthews2008 .Decreasesinprecipitationarelikelytoincreasefragmentationofplaya lakesasalandscapelevelhabitatresource,suchthatspeciesutilizingthesehabitatswill faceincreaseddifficultyinmovingbetweenplayas McIntyreetal.2014,Ruizetal.2014 . Exposure and Sensitivity Summary Projectedprecipitationlevelsforplayasaregenerallywithinthecurrentrange.Springand summertemperaturesareprojectedtobewarmerthanthecurrentrangeinmorethanhalf ofthedistributionofthishabitat. 108 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Playas % projected Climate variable range shift Spring precipitation 0% Summer precipitation 0% Drought days 0% Mean spring temperature 58% Mean summer temperature 56% Average range shift Rank Exposure‐Sensitivity level 23% M Moderate Resilience Components PlayasineasternColoradoarenotrestrictedtohighelevations,andarenotatthesouthern edgeoftheirrange.However,thesefactorsmaynotbeasrelevanttodetermining vulnerabilityforthesesmall,isolatedhabitatpatchesasforlarger,morecontiguoushabitat types.PlayasineasternColoradooccurinarelativelysmallrangeofprecipitationand growingseasonconditions.Furthermore,thesmallsize,isolation,anddynamicnatureof thesehabitatsmeansthatconnectivityanddispersalarecriticalpointsofvulnerabilityin thepersistenceofthesehabitatsandthespeciesthatrelyonthem. Increasedsedimentationthroughwatererosionofadjacentcultivatedlandsandactive fillingofdepressionalwetlandshasbeentheprimarythreattothepersistenceofplaya habitats HaukosandSmith2003 .Farfewerthan1%ofextantplayasarewithout modification,eithertothewetlanditself,ortoitswatershed Johnsonetal.2012 . Anthropogenicalterationstohydrologywithinindividualplayasincludetilling,pit excavationtoincreasewaterstorage,runoffdiversion,andpumpingforirrigation. Additionallandusepracticeswithintheimmediatewatershedmayincludecrop cultivation,livestockgrazing,development,andotherpracticesthatincreasesediment accumulationintheplaya Luoetal.1997,Johnsonetal.2012 .Impactstoplayasfrom conversiontocroplandaresignificant,andtendtodecreasetheresilienceoftheplaya habitat.Tillingdecreasestheabilityofaplayadepressiontomaintainnaturalhydroperiod Tsaietal.2007 ,andincreasesthechanceofcolonizationbyexoticspecies Tsaietal. 2012 .Thehighlyalteredconditionofplayahabitatislikelytosignificantlydegradethe abilityofthesewetlandstoadapttoclimatechange. 109 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Adaptive Capacity Summary Playas Range and biophysical envelope Dispersal & growth form 0.62 0.00 Resilience ‐ Adaptive Biological Extreme Landscape capacity stressors events condition score Rank 0.33 0.67 0.57 0.44 Resilience Level L Low Vulnerability to Climate Change Exposure ‐ Sensitivity Playas Resilience – Adaptive Combined Overall vulnerability to Capacity rank climate change Moderate Low M/L High Playasarerankedashavinghighvulnerabilitytotheeffectsofclimatechangebymid‐ centuryunderamoderateemissionsscenario.Primaryfactorscontributingtothisranking arethefactthattheseisolatedwetlandsarefoundontheeasternplainsofColorado,where thegreatestlevelsofexposureforalltemperaturevariablesoccur.Inaddition, anthropogenicdisturbanceinthesehasreducedtheoveralllandscapeconditionand connectivityofthehabitat,whichislikelytoreduceitsresilienceinthefaceofincreasing frequencyofextremeevents,andgenerallywarmer,drierconditions. NOTE:duetothegenerallysmallsizeofplayaoccurrences,exposuremapswerenot producedforthishabitat. References: Bolen,E.G.,L.M.Smith,andH.L.SchrammJr.1989.Playalakes:prairiewetlandsofthe SouthernHighPlains.BioScience39:615‐623. Haukos,D.A.,andL.M.Smith.1993.Seed‐bankcompositionandpredictiveabilityoffield vegetationinplayalakes.Wetlands13:32‐40. Haukos,D.A.,andL.M.Smith.2003.Pastandfutureimpactsofwetlandregulationsonplaya ecologyinthesouthernGreatPlains.Wetlands23:577‐589. Johnson,L.A.,D.A.Haukos,L.M.Smith,andS.T.McMurry.2012.Physicallossand modificationofSouthernGreatPlainsplayas.JournalofEnvironmentalManagement 112:275‐283. 110 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Luo,H.,L.M.Smith,B.L.AllenandD.A.Haukos.1997.Effectsofsedimentationonplaya wetlandvolume.EcologicalApplications7:247‐252. Matthews,J.H.2008.AnthropogenicclimatechangeinthePlayaLakesJointVenture Region:understandingimpacts,discerningtrends,anddevelopingresponses.Report preparedforthePlayaLakesJointVenture.Available: http://www.pljv.org/documents/science/PLJV_climate_change_review.pdf McIntyre,N.E.,C.K.Wright,S.Swain,K.Hayhoe,G.Liu,F.W.Swartz,andG.M.Henebry. 2014.ClimateforcingofwetlandlandscapeconnectivityintheGreatPlains.Frontiersin EcologyandtheEnvironment12:59‐64. Ruiz,L,N.Parikh,L.J.Heintzman,S.D.Collins,S.M.Starr,C.K.Wright,G.M.Henebry,N.van Gestel,andN.E.McIntyre.2014.Dynamicconnectivityoftemporarywetlandsinthe southernGreatPlains.LandscapeEcology29:507‐516. Tsai,J.,L.S.Venne,S.T.McMurry,andL.M.Smith.2007.Influencesoflanduseandwetland characteristicsonwaterlossratesandhydroperiodsofplayasintheSouthernHigh Plains,USA.Wetlands27:683‐692. Tsai,J.,L.S.Venne,S.T.McMurry,andL.M.Smith.2012.Localandlandscapeinfluenceson plantcommunitiesinplayawetlands.JournalofAppliedEcology49:174‐181. WesternRegionalClimateCenter WRCC .2004.HistoricalClimateInformation,Narratives byState.ClimateofColorado.Availableat: http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/narratives/colorado/ 111 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 RIPARIAN WOODLANDS AND SHRUBLANDS Climate Influences Weassessedtheconditionofriparianwoodlandsandshrublandsineachofthreeregions inColorado,correspondingroughlytoecoregionsasdefinedbyTheNatureConservancy 2009,modifiedfromBailey1998 :theeasternplains CentralShortgrassPrairie ecoregion ;mountains SouthernRockyMountainecoregion ;andwesternplateausand valleys ColoradoPlateau,WyomingBasins,andotherecoregions . RiparianareasofColorado’seasternplainsareprimarilyassociatedwithintermittently flowingstreamsofsmalltomoderatesize,butalsoincludethelargerfloodplainsofthe largesnowmelt‐fedrivers SouthPlatteandArkansas .Smallerstreamsreceivewaterfrom precipitationandgroundwaterinflow,havegreaterseasonalflowvariationthanthelarger rivers,andhaveminimalornoflowexceptduringfloods Covichetal.1997 .In mountainousareasofColorado,riparianareasaremuchmorelikelytobeassociatedwith perenniallyflowingstreams,andtheseplantcommunitiesareadaptedtohighwatertables andperiodicflooding.Runoffandseepagefromsnowmeltisaprimarysourceof streamflow.LowerelevationriparianareasinwesternColoradoareadaptedtoperiodic flooddisturbanceandpredominantlyaridconditions.Largerstreamsandriversare sustainedbyrunofffrommountainareas.Smallerstreamsareprimarilysupportedby groundwaterinflow,oroccasionallargeprecipitationevents,andareoftendryforsome portionoftheyear. Riparianwoodlandsandshrublandsareadjacenttoandaffectedbysurfaceorground waterofperennialorephemeralwaterbodies.Theyarecharacterizedbyintermittent floodingandaseasonallyhighwatertable.Thecloseassociationofriparianareaswith streamflowandaquatichabitatsmeansthatchangingpatternsofprecipitationandrunoff thatalterhydrologicregimesarelikelytohaveadirecteffectonthesehabitats Caponetal. 2013 .Inaddition,theinteractionofincreasedgrowthduetoincreasedCO2concentration, warming‐induceddroughtandheat‐stresswithpotentiallyreducedstreamflowsarelikely toaffectripariancommunitystructureandcomposition,especiallyinmorearidareas Perryetal.2012 . Climateprojectionsformid‐centuryaregenerallyforwarmeranddrieroutcomes,although precipitationchangeismoreuncertainindirectionandmagnitude Lucasetal.2014 . Annualrunoffandstreamflowareaffectedbybothtemperatureandprecipitation,and effectsoffuturechangesinthesefactorsaredifficulttoseparate.Warmingtemperatures arelikelytoaffectthehydrologiccyclebyshiftingrunoffandpeakflowstoearlierinthe 112 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 spring,andreducinglatesummer‐earlyautumnflows Roodetal.2008 .Riparian vegetationisinpartdeterminedbyflowlevels Aubleetal.1994 .Reducedsummerflows arepredictedtoresultinmorefrequentdroughtstressforriparianhabitats,witha resultinglossorcontractionofthehabitat Roodetal.2008 .Warming‐inducedchangesin snowpackandsnowmelttimingincludeearlierspringsnowmelt,ashifttowards precipitationfallingasraininsteadofsnowinspringandfall,andincreasedsublimation fromthesnowpackthroughouttheseason.Thesechangesareexpectedtohavegreater impactatlowerelevations Lucasetal.2014 . Exposure and Sensitivity Summary Becauseofthewidespreadnatureandgenerallywideecologicaltolerancesofthisdiverse groupofplantcommunitiesasawhole,projectedtemperatureandprecipitationconditions acrossthecompletecurrentdistributionaregenerallywithinthecurrentrange.Riparian woodlandsandshrublandsinwesternColoradoareprojectedtoexperiencesummer temperaturesthatarewarmerthanthecurrentrangeinnearlyhalfofthecurrent distribution.IneasternColorado,projectedprecipitationlevelsareprojectedtobelower thanthedriestendofthecurrentrangefor15%ofthecurrentdistribution,anddrought daysareprojectedtoincreaseaswell. Riparian woodland and shrubland West Mountain % projected Climate variable range shift Winter precipitation 0% Spring precipitation 0% Summer precipitation 0% Fall precipitation 0% 0% Drought days 38% Mean winter temperature 0% Mean spring temperature 0% Mean summer temperature 43% Very hot days 0% Average range shift Rank Exposure‐Sensitivity level 15% 0% Days with heavy precipitation East 0% 0% 0% 9% 0% 11% L L L Low Low Low 113 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Resilience Components RiparianareashaveawideecologicalamplitudeinColorado,andarenotrestrictedby elevationoredge‐of‐rangefactors.However,thestructureandcompositionofriparian habitatsiscloselytiedtolocalaswellasupstreamenvironmentalconditions,andis consequentlyhighlyvariablefromonepartofthestatetoanother.Changingclimatescould havedramaticeffectsonthecomponentspeciesandarrangementofriparianhabitats;the consequencesofthesechangesforhabitatfunctionandpersistencearelittleknown. Dominantriparianspeciesareoftendependentonperiodicflooddisturbancefordispersal andregeneration.Alteredhydrologyduetodams,diversions,andgroundwaterpumping mayinteractwithwarmingtemperaturesandchangesinprecipitationpatterntoalter fluvialregimes.Suchchangesmayincreasevulnerabilityofriparianhabitatstoinvasionby exoticspecies,especiallyafterextremeevents Caponetal.2013 .Increasedfrequencyand magnitudeofdroughtislikelytohavemoreimpactonthesehabitatsthanstreamwarming orwildfire,atleastatregionalscales Holsingeretal.2014 .Climatechangeinwater sourceareasaswellasinadjacenthabitatscouldhavesignificantimpactonriparian habitats,potentiallyreducingvegetativecover,andalteringspeciescomposition. Adaptive Capacity Summary Riparian woodland and shrubland Resilience ‐ Adaptive Biological Extreme Landscape capacity stressors events condition score Rank Range and biophysical envelope Dispersal & growth form West 0.57 0.50 0.33 0.67 0.40 0.50 L Low Mountain 0.81 0.50 0.33 0.67 0.69 0.60 M Moderate East 0.64 0.50 0.33 0.67 0.44 0.52 M Moderate Resilience Level Vulnerability to Climate Change Resilience – Adaptive Combined Overall vulnerability to Capacity rank climate change Riparian woodland & shrubland Exposure ‐ Sensitivity West Low Low L/L Moderate Mountain Low Moderate L/M Low East Low Moderate L/M Low 114 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Riparianwoodlandandshrublandsoftheeasternplainsandmountainareasarerankedas havinglowvulnerabilitytotheeffectsofclimatechangebymid‐centuryunderamoderate emissionsscenario,whilethoseofthewesternvalleysareconsideredmoderately vulnerable.Primaryfactorscontributingtotheserankingsarethewideecological amplitudeanddistributionofriparianhabitatsthroughoutColorado,althoughthe vulnerabilityofsomespeciesassemblagesmaybehigherthanisreflectedbythecollective assessment.Thelowtomoderateresilienceranksreflectthehighlyalteredconditionof mostofthesehabitats,andingeneral,riparianwoodlandsandshrublandsthroughoutthe stateshouldprobablyberegardedashavingsomedegreeofvulnerabilitytoclimatechange thatisnotcapturedbyourbroad‐scaleassessmentmethods. NOTE:duetotherelativelysmallsizeofriparianoccurrences,exposuremapswerenot producedforthishabitat. References: Auble,G.T.,J.M.Friedman,andM.L.Scott.1994.Relatingriparianvegetationtopresentand futurestreamflows.EcologicalApplications4:544‐554. Bailey,R.1998.EcoregionsmapofNorthAmerica:Explanatorynote.USDAForestService, Misc.Publicationno.1548.10pp. mapscale1:15,000,000 Capon,S.J.,L.E.Chambers,R.MacNally,R.J.Naiman,P.Davies,N.Marshall,J.Pittock,M. Reid,T.Capon,M.Douglas,J.Catford,D.S.Baldwin,M.Stewardson,J.Roberts,M. parsons,andS.E.Williams.2013.Riparianecosystemsinthe21stcentury:hotspotsfor climatechangeadaptation?Ecosystems16:359‐381. Covich,A.P.,S.C.Fritz,P.J.Lamb,R.D.Marzolf,W.J.Matthews,K.A.Poiani,E.E.Prepas,M.B. Richman,andT.C.Winter.1997.Potentialeffectsofclimatechangeonaquatic ecosystemsoftheGreatPlainsofNorthAmerica.HydrologicalProcesses11:993‐1021. Holsinger,L.,R.E.Keane,D.J.Isaak,L.Eby,andM.K.Young.2014.Relativeeffectsofclimate changeandwildfiresonstreamtemperatures:asimulationmodelingapproachina rockyMountainwatershed.ClimaticChange124:191‐206. Lucas,J.,J.Barsugli,N.Doesken,I.Rangwala,andK.Wolter.2014.ClimateChangein Colorado:asynthesistosupportwaterresourcesmanagementandadaptation.Second edition.ReportfortheColoradoWaterConservationBoard.WesternWater Assessment,CooperativeInstituteforResearchinEnvironmentalSciences CIRES , UniversityofColoradoBoulder. 115 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Perry,L.G.,D.C.Andersen,L.V.Reynolds,S.M.Nelson,andP.B.Shafroth.2012.Vulnerability ofriparianecosystemstoelevatedCO2andclimatechangeinaridandsemiaridwestern NorthAmerica.GlobalChangeBiology18:8221‐842. Rood,S.B.,J.Pan,K.M.Gill,C.G.Franks,G.M.Samuelson,andA.Shepherd.2008.Declining summerflowsofRockyMountainrivers:changingseasonalhydrologyandprobable impactsonfloodplainforests.JournalofHydrology349:397‐410. TheNatureConservancy TNC .2009.TerrestrialEcoregionsoftheWorld,digitalvector data.TheNatureConservancy,Arlington,Virginia. 116 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 WETLANDS Climate Influences Weassessedtheconditionofnon‐riparianwetlandsineachofthreesectionsofColorado, correspondingapproximatelytoecoregionsasdefinedbyTheNatureConservancy 2009, modifiedfromBailey1998 :theeasternplains CentralShortgrassPrairieecoregion ; mountains SouthernRockyMountainecoregion ;andwesternplateausandvalleys ColoradoPlateau,WyomingBasins,andotherecoregions . Asconsideredherein,wetlandsareareascharacterizedbywatersaturationandhydric soilstypicallysupportinghydrophyticvegetation.Non‐riparianwetlandsofColorado’s easternplainsandwesternvalleysareprimarilymarshes,seeps,andsprings,andwet meadows.Althoughnaturalmarshesandwetmeadowsareprimarilyfoundathigher elevations,irrigationpractices directfloodapplication,irrigationtailwaters,elevated groundwaterlevels,etc. havegreatlyincreasedtheincidenceofwetmeadowsonthe easternplains Sueltenfussetal.2013 .Playasareconsideredseparatelyabove.Mostof thestate’swetmeadowsoccurinmountainousareasofColorado,andmarshesare generallylesscommon.Fensarealsocharacteristicofthemountainregion. Effectsofclimatechangeonwetlandsareexpectedtobelargelymediatedthroughthe sourceofwater,eitherprecipitation,groundwaterdischarge,or,forwetlandsassociated withriparianareas,surfaceflow Winter2000 .Precipitationsupportedwetlandsare thoughttobemostvulnerabletodrierclimaticoutcomes,butdecreasingprecipitation wouldalsobelikelytolowerwatertablelevelsandleadtocontractionofgroundwater‐fed wetlands Winter2000,Poffetal.2002 .Underwetterconditions,somewetlandtypes maybeabletoexpandoratleastmaintaincurrentextents.Considerationoftheeffectsof changingprecipitationisfurthercomplicatedbythefactthatwetlandsmayreceivewater inputfromthesurroundingbasin,notjusttheimmediateenvirons Gitayetal.2001 . Temperatureaffectswetlanddistributionandfunctionprimarilythroughitseffectson ratesofchemical,physicalandbiologicalprocesses GageandCooper2007 .Although wetlandsaretosomeextentbufferedfromtheimmediateeffectsofwarmingonwater temperature,warmingcouldincreasebothplantgrowthandmicrobialactivitydriving decomposition Fischlinetal.2007 .Temperatureisalsoadriverofevapotranspiration rate,andthewatercycleingeneral Gitayetal.2001 . Variationinclimaticconditionsaffectsgroundwaterlevelsbothdirectlyviarechargerates, andindirectlythroughchangesinpatternsofgroundwateruse,especiallyirrigation 117 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Tayloretal.2012 .Drierfutureconditionsarelikelytoresultintightercontrolson irrigationseepage,andaconsequentreductioninwetlandacressupportedbythissource. Althoughclimatechangeisexpectedtohaveasignificanteffectonwetlandsthrough changesintheseasonalityandvariabilityofprecipitationandextremeevents Gitayetal. 2005 ,changingwaterusepatternsinresponsetoclimatechangearealsolikelytoplaya majorroleinthefutureofwetlands Tayloretal.2012 . Exposure and Sensitivity Summary ThesehabitatshaveawidedistributioninColorado,andasawholearegenerallyless exposedthanareindividualwetlandoccurrences.InwesternColorado,projectedsummer andfallprecipitationaredrierthanconditionsforthecurrentdistributioninsomeareas, andthenumberofveryhotdaysislikelytoincreaseforaboutathirdofthedistribution there.Wetlandsinthemountainareasofthestatearemostlikelytoseedrierthancurrent conditionsinthewinterandspring.Wetlandhabitatsoftheeasternplainsaremostlikely toseesummertemperatureswarmerthanthecurrentrange,drierspringandsummer,and increaseddroughtdaysincomparisontothecurrentrange. Wetland West Mountain % projected Climate variable range shift Winter precipitation 19% Spring precipitation 4% Summer precipitation 14% Fall precipitation 6% 0% Drought days 29% Mean winter temperature 0% Mean spring temperature 0% Mean summer temperature 0% Very hot days 32% Average range shift Rank Exposure‐Sensitivity level 0% 0% 67% 10% 5% 23% L L M Low Low Moderate 6% 12% Days with heavy precipitation East 118 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Resilience Components WetlandshaveawideecologicalamplitudeinColorado,andarenotrestrictedbyelevation oredge‐of‐rangefactors.Thepotentialaggregationofbasinwideeffectsintowetlandareas increasesthechanceforchangestohaveanimpactoverconsiderabledistances.Changing climatescouldhavedramaticeffectsonthecomponentspeciesandhydrologiccyclesof wetlands;theconsequencesofthesechangesforhabitatfunctionandpersistencearelikely tobesignificant.Becausemanywetlandsaresmallandrelativelyisolatedwithinthe landscape,habitatconnectivityandspeciesdispersalareapointofvulnerability. Wetlandhabitatshavebeenheavilyimpactedbyanthropogenicactivities,especiallywater management GageandCooper2007 .Alteredhydrologyduetodams,diversions,and groundwaterpumpingmayinteractwithwarmingtemperaturesandchangesin precipitationpatterntoaltergroundwaterrechargerates,andleadtodryingorcontraction ofwetlands.Impactedwetlandsmaybemorevulnerabletoinvasionbyexoticspecies. Increasedfrequencyandmagnitudeofdroughtislikelytohavesignificantimpactonthese habitats.Climatechangeinwatersourceareasaswellasinadjacenthabitatscouldhave significantimpactonwetlands. Adaptive Capacity Summary Resilience ‐ Adaptive Biological Extreme Landscape capacity stressors events condition score Rank Range and biophysical envelope Dispersal & growth form West 0.69 0.50 0.33 0.67 0.41 0.52 M Moderate Mountain 0.90 0.50 0.33 0.67 0.67 0.61 M Moderate East 0.66 0.50 0.33 0.67 0.43 0.52 M Moderate Wetlands Resilience Level Vulnerability to Climate Change Exposure ‐ Sensitivity Resilience – Adaptive Capacity Combined rank Overall vulnerability to climate change West Low Moderate L/M Low Mountain Low Moderate L/M Low Moderate Moderate M/M Moderate Wetlands East 119 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Wetlandhabitatsofthewesternvalleysandmountainareasarerankedashavinglow vulnerabilitytotheeffectsofclimatechangebymid‐centuryunderamoderateemissions scenario,whilethoseoftheeasternplainsareconsideredmoderatelyvulnerable.Primary factorscontributingtotheserankingsarethewideecologicalamplitudeanddistributionof wetlandhabitatsthroughoutColorado,althoughthevulnerabilityofsomespecies assemblagesmaybehigherthanisreflectedbythecollectiveassessment.Themoderate resilienceranksreflectthehighlyalteredconditionofmostofthesehabitats,andin general,wetlandsthroughoutthestateshouldprobablyberegardedashavingsomedegree ofvulnerabilitytoclimatechangethatisnotcapturedbyourbroad‐scaleassessment methods. NOTE:duetothegenerallysmallsizeofwetlandoccurrences,exposuremapswerenot producedforthishabitat. References: Bailey,R.1998.EcoregionsmapofNorthAmerica:Explanatorynote.USDAForestService, Misc.Publicationno.1548.10pp. mapscale1:15,000,000 Fischlin,A.,G.F.Midgley,J.T.Price,R.Leemans,B.Gopal,C.Turley,M.D.A.Rounsevell,O.P. Dube,J.Tarazona,A.A.Velichko.2007.Ecosystems,theirproperties,goods,and services.ClimateChange2007:Impacts,AdaptationandVulnerability.Contributionof WorkingGroupIItotheFourthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelon ClimateChange,M.L.Parry,O.F.Canziani,J.P.Palutikof,P.J.vanderLindenandC.E. Hanson,Eds.,CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,211‐272. Gage,E.,andD.J.Cooper.2007.Historicrangeofvariationassessmentforwetlandand riparianecosystems,U.S.ForestServiceRegion2.PreparedforUSDAForestService, RockyMountainRegion.DepartmentofForest,RangelandandWatershedStewardship, ColoradoStateUniversity,FortCollins,Colorado. Gitay,H.,A.SuarezandR.T.Watson.2002.ClimateChangeandBiodiversity.IPCCTechnical Paper,IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,Geneva,77pp. Gitay,H.,S.Brown,W.EasterlingandB.Jallow.2001.Ecosystemsandtheirgoodsand services.ClimateChange2001:Impacts,Adaptation,andVulnerability.Contributionof WorkingGroupIItotheThirdAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelon ClimateChange,J.J.McCarthy,O.F.Canziani,N.A.Leary,D.J.DokkenandK.S.White,Eds., CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,237‐342. Poff,N.L.,M.M.Brinson,andJ.W.Day.2002.Aquaticecosystemsandglobalclimatechange: potentialimpactsoninlandfreshwaterandcoastalwetlandecosystemsintheUnited 120 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 States.PreparedforthePewCenteronGlobalClimateChange.Available: http://www.c2es.org/publications/aquatic‐ecosystems‐and‐climate‐change Sueltenfuss,J.P.,D.J.Cooper,R.L.Knight,andR.M.Waskom.2013.Thecreationand maintenanceofwetlandecosystemsfromirrigationcanalandreservoirseepageina semi‐aridlandscape.Wetlands33:799‐810. Taylor,R.G.,B.Scanlon,P.Dölletal.2012.Groundwaterandclimatechange.Nature ClimateChange3:322‐329. TheNatureConservancy TNC .2009.TerrestrialEcoregionsoftheWorld,digitalvector data.TheNatureConservancy,Arlington,Virginia. Winter,T.C.2000.Thevulnerabilityofwetlandstoclimatechange:ahydrologiclandscape perspective.JournaloftheAmericanWaterResourcesAssociation.36:305‐311. 121 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 ALPINE Climate Influences Snowpackisacrucialcomponentofalpineecosystems,anddependsonbothprecipitation amountsandwinter‐springtemperature Williamsetal.2002 .Vegetationinalpineareas iscontrolledbypatternsofsnowretention,winddesiccation,permafrost,andashort growingseason GreenlandandLosleben2001 .Dryerareasareoftencharacterizedbya densecoveroflow‐growing,perennialgraminoidsandforbs.Rhizomatous,sod‐forming sedgesarethedominantgraminoids,andprostrateandmat‐formingplantswiththick rootstocksortaprootscharacterizetheforbs.Low‐growingshrublandscharacterizedbyan intermittentlayerofsnowwillowordwarf‐shrubslessthan0.5minheight,withamixture offorbsandgraminoids especiallysedges aretypicallyisfoundinareasoflevelor concaveglacialtopography,withlate‐lyingsnowandsubirrigationfromsurrounding slopes. Thelengthofthegrowingseasonisparticularlyimportantforthealpinezone,andforthe transitionzonebetweenalpineandforest treeline .Alpineareashavethefewestgrowing degreedaysandlowestpotentialevapotranspirationofanyhabitatinColorado.Treeline‐ controllingfactorsoperateatdifferentscales,rangingfromthemicrositetothecontinental HoltmeierandBroll2005 .Onaglobalorcontinentalscale,thereisgeneralagreement thattemperatureisaprimarydeterminantoftreeline.Atthisscale,thedistributionof alpineecosystemsisdeterminedbythenumberofdaysthatarewarmenoughforalpine plantgrowth,butnotsufficientfortreegrowth.Otheralpineconditionsthatmaintain treelessvegetationathighelevationsincludelackofsoildevelopment,persistent snowpack,steepslopes,wind,anddenseturfthatrestrictstreeseedlingestablishmentand survivalwithinthetreelineecotone Moiretal.2003,Smithetal.2003,HoltmeierandBroll 2005 . Onthebasisofhistoricevidence,treelineisgenerallyexpectedtomigratetohigher elevationsastemperatureswarm,aspermittedbylocalmicrositeconditions Smithetal. 2003,RichardsonandFriedland2009,Grafiusetal.2012 .Itisunlikelythatalpinespecies wouldbeabletomovetootheralpineareas.Intheshort‐termwithwarmertemperatures, alpineareasmaybeabletopersist,especiallyinareaswhereitisdifficultfortreesto advanceupslope.Theslowgrowthofwoodyspeciesandrarityofrecruitmenteventsmay delaytheconversionofalpineareastoforestfor50‐100 afterclimaticconditionshave becomesuitablefortreegrowth Körner2012 .Thus,alpineecosystemsmaypersistfora whilebeyondmid‐century,butarelikelytoeventuallylargelydisappearfromColoradoin thelongrun. 122 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Exposure and Sensitivity Summary Alpinehabitatsareprojectedtoexperiencetemperatureswarmerthanthecurrentrangein morethanhalfoftheircurrentdistribution.Projectedwinterandspringprecipitation levelsaregenerallywithintherangeofthecurrentdistribution. Alpine % projected Climate variable (sources: M=model, E = expert review, L = literature review) range shift Winter precipitation (M, L) 0% Spring precipitation (M) 4% Days with heavy precipitation (M, L) 0% Mean summer temperature (M, L) 56% Growing degree days ‐ base 0 (L) 51% Average range shift 22.1% Rank Exposure‐Sensitivity level M Moderate Resilience Components ElevationsofalpinehabitatsinColoradorangefromabout11,000toover14,000ft.,witha meanofabout12,000ft.Alpinehabitatsarerestrictedtohighelevations,andarealsonear thesouthernextentoftheircontinentalrangeinColorado.Statewide,theannualaverage precipitationrangeisabout20‐60in 50‐150cm withameanof36in 92.5cm .Alpine growingseasonsaretheshortestofanyhabitatinColorado. Alpineenvironmentsaregenerallynotsusceptibletooutbreaksofpestspeciesordisease, butmayhavesomeslightvulnerabilitytoinvasiveplantspeciessuchasyellowtoadflax. Thesetreelessenvironmentsarenotvulnerabletofire,butcouldbecomesoiftreesare abletoestablish.Xericalpineenvironmentsarealreadysubjecttoextremeconditions,but themoremesicareasarevulnerabletodroughtandchangesinsnowmelttiming.Even underincreasedsnowpack,warmertemperaturesarelikelytoalterpatternsofsnowmelt, andmayreduceavailablemoisture.Thesechangesarelikelytoresultinshiftsinspecies composition,perhapswithanincreaseinshrubsonxerictundra.Withwarming temperaturesandearliersnowmelt,however,elkmaybeabletomoveintoalpineareas 123 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 earlierandstaylonger,therebyincreasingstressonalpinewillowcommunities Zeigenfussetal.2011 . Alpinehabitatsarealsoindirectlyaffectedbybothdroughtandland‐usepracticesin upwindareasthatleadtodustemissions.Whenwind‐blowndustisdepositedonmountain snowpack,theresultingdarkeningofthesnowallowsincreasedabsorptionofsolarradiant energy,andearliermeltingthanunderdustfreeconditions.Unlikewarmingtemperatures, whichadvancebothsnowmelttimingandgrowingseasononsetforalpinevegetation,the effectofdustdepositiononmountainsnowpackisalsoasourceofearliersnowmelt,andis notdirectlylinkedtoseasonalwarming Steltzeretal.2009 .Althoughdustdeposition maybeasignificantcontributortosoildevelopmentinsomeareas Lawrenceetal.2011 , itcanincreaseevapotranspirationanddecreaseannualrunoffflows Deemsetal.2013 . Changesinsoilmoisturelevelsduetoearliersnowmeltmayinteractwithotherclimate changeeffectstoproducechangesinspeciescompositionandstructureofalpinehabitats. Adaptive Capacity Summary Alpine Range and biophysical envelope Dispersal & growth form Biological stressors 0.32 0.5 0.67 Extreme Landscape events condition 0.67 0.98 Resilience ‐ Adaptive capacity score Rank Resilience Level 0.61 M Moderate Vulnerability to Climate Change Exposure ‐ Sensitivity Alpine Resilience – Adaptive Combined Overall vulnerability to Capacity rank climate change Moderate Moderate M/M Moderate Alpinehabitatsarerankedmoderatelyvulnerabletotheeffectsofclimatechangebymid‐ centuryunderamoderateemissionsscenario.Primaryfactorscontributingtothisranking arethefactthatthesehabitatsarerestrictedtothehighestelevationsofColorado,and consequentlyhaveanarrowbiophysicalenvelope.Manyoftheconstituentspeciesareat thesouthernedgeoftheirdistributioninColorado.Underalonger‐termevaluationframe, vulnerabilityofthishabitatisexpectedtobegreater. Mapsbelowillustratethespatialpatternofexposureundertheworstcasescenarioforthe fiveclimatevariablesassessedforalpinehabitats.Legendpointersindicatetherangeof 124 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 changeforthishabitatwithinthestatewideextentofchange.AlpineareasintheSanJuan Mountainsaregenerallymostexposedtodrierconditions.Underawetterscenario, however,somepartsthesouthernmountainsmayexperienceanincreaseinlarge precipitationevents.Temperaturepatternsarelessclear;allareasareprojectedto undergowarmingtosomedegree,althoughtoalesserextentthanisprojectedforlower elevationhabitats. 125 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 126 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 127 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 References: Deems,J.S.,T.H.Painter,J.J.Barsugli,J.Belnap,andB.Udall.2013.Combinedimpactsof currentandfuturedustdepositionandregionalwarmingonColoradoRiverBasinsnow dynamicsandhydrology.Hydrol.EarthSyst.Sci.17:4401‐4413. 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Richardson,A.D.andA.J.Friedland.2009.Areviewofthetheoriestoexplainarcticand alpinetreelinesaroundtheworld.JournalofSustainableForestry28:218‐242. Smith,W.K.,M.J.Germino,T.E.Hancock,andD.M.Johnson.2003.Anotherperspectiveon altitudinallimitsofalpinetimberlines.TreePhysiology23:1101‐1112. Steltzer,H.,C.Landry,T.H.Painter,J.Anderson,andE.Ayres.2009.Biologicalconsequences ofearliersnowmeltfromdesertdustdepositioninalpinelandscapes.PNAS106:11629‐ 11634. Williams,M.E.,M.V.Losleben,andH.B.Hamann.2002.AlpineareasintheColoradoFront Rangeasmonitorsofclimatechangeandecosystemresponse.GeographicalReview 92:180‐191. 128 ColoradoWildlifeActionPlanEnhancement: ClimateChangeVulnerabilityAssessment 2014 Zeigenfuss,L.C.,K.A.Schonecker,andL.K.VanAmburg.2011.Ungulateherbivoryonalpine willowintheSangredeCristoMountainsofColorado.WesternNorthAmerican Naturalist71:86‐96. 129
