Export
PERFORMANCE
& PROSPECTS
Irish Food, Drink and
Horticulture – 2013/14
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
2
contents
Executive Summary
The Marketing Environment
Sectoral Review and Outlook
Meat & Livestock
Destinations for Irish food and drink
4
Overview10
Industry issues
6
Key drivers of export performance
Consumer trends
6
Food & Drink export trends & drivers
Performance by category
18
12
Beef18
Consumer prices
12
Pigmeat21
7
Competitiveness of sector
12
Sheepmeat23
8
Global commodity prices
13
Poultry26
Exchange rates
14
Live animals
Consumer attitudes & behaviour
14
27
Dairy Products & Ingredients
28
Prepared Foods
31
Beverages32
Seafood34
Edible Horticulture & cereals
36
Amenity exports
37
3
40%
Food and drink exports in 2013 were 40% or
€3bn higher than the levels recorded in 2009
Executive Summary
Performance & Outlook
Overview
• The Irish food and drink sector continued the strong export
performance of recent years during 2013 despite the
ongoing competitive nature of most markets. Trade was
boosted by strong global prices and higher output in key
sectors, which helped offset some strengthening of the euro
against major currencies.
• For the year it is estimated that the value of Irish food and
drink exports increased by 9% to approach €10bn for the
first time. This leaves export revenues some 40% or €3bn
higher than 2009 levels.
• The strongest performers were dairy, meat & livestock and
prepared foods. A competitive market environment led
to slower beverage exports, although whiskey continued
to perform very strongly. Seafood saw a levelling off in
exports following a rise of almost 65% over the 2009 to
2012 period.
• Figures from the CSO for the first 10 months of 2013 show
that overall merchandise exports from Ireland fell by more
than 6%. The performance of food and drink exports during
the period was in direct contrast with growth of over 8%
recorded. Food and drink exports now account for two
thirds of total indigenous exports.
• The market environment for Irish food and drink exports
remains broadly positive for the year ahead. Some further
rise in output is expected across key sectors and ongoing
strong demand is anticipated in emerging economies. Much
will depend on developments in more established markets
with consumer sentiment to remain a critical driver.
Destinations for Irish Food & Drink
• The market distribution of Irish food and drink exports
settled down during 2013 following the rise in the share
of trade going to International markets over recent years.
This was led by the stronger performance of Continental
4
EU markets. International trade continued to be driven by
strong exports to Asia and Russia.
• The share of exports destined for the United Kingdom
remained at 42%. Trade increased in line with overall food
and drink exports to stand at an estimated €4.1 billion. The
main drivers of export growth were beef, dairy and to a
lesser extent prepared foods.
• Following a difficult trade in 2012 due to slow economic
demand and more favourable trade elsewhere, exports
of food and drink to Continental EU markets rebounded
impressively in 2013. Exports are estimated to have
increased by 11% to reach around €3.2 billion, which
represents over 32% of the total. Key markets included
Germany, France and the Netherlands, all of which recorded
double digit growth.
• Shipments of Irish food and drink products to International
markets built on the impressive performance of the
previous two years, which saw the value of trade jump by
almost 30%. Exports increased by around 6% to exceed
€2.6 billion.
Key drivers of export performance
• In a reversal of trends evident over recent years, there was
some growth in volumes across key categories, most notably
beef and dairy. Beef output was almost 5% higher while
milk production jumped by more than 2%. Both categories
also recorded price increases and in the case of dairy this
was the key driver of growth.
• Price inflation across the eurozone remained tentative in
2013. The year started brightly with 4% retail food price
inflation evident before slowing as the year progressed. A
considerable degree of variation was evident depending
on the market and product in question. Up to the end of
October, a rise of almost 3% was evident.
• Retail food price increases were well ahead of overall
inflation with the October index showing food price inflation
running at more than twice overall inflation in the eurozone
economy. This is in direct contrast to 2010/2011 when food
prices lagged overall inflation.
• Global agricultural commodity prices as measured by
the FAO Food Price Index showed a marginal decline in
farmgate prices during 2013. This was led by weaker sugar,
oil and cereals as supply responded to the higher prices of
2011/2012. This offset a substantial increase in dairy prices
with meat prices also increasing, albeit modestly. Prices
remain some 60% ahead of the 2000 to 2010 average.
• The euro strengthened against both sterling and the US
dollar in 2013, rising by 5% and 3% respectively. However,
euro exchange rates remain considerably lower than the
levels seen in 2010/2011.
Meat & Livestock
• It is estimated that the combined value of meat and livestock
exports increased by 8% or almost €245 m to reach €3.3
billion in 2013. This leaves the sector accounting for a third
of food and drink exports.
• A combination of higher output in some categories, most
notably beef and sheepmeat together with stronger prices
for cattle and pigs helped boost the value of trade.
• The value of beef exports increased by almost 10%
reflecting a rise of 5% in output and 4% in average prices.
As a result, exports were valued at just under €2.1 billion.
• Despite a drop of around 2% in pigmeat production, a rise
of almost 6% in pig prices helped to boost the value of Irish
pigmeat exports by 3% to €525 million.
• The competitive market environment for poultry persisted in
2013 although some improvement in prices led to the value
of poultry exports rising by 4% to an estimated €230m.
• A rise of 7% in sheep output helped offset lower carcase
weights and a marginal drop in prices to leave the value of
Irish sheepmeat exports 4% higher at €220m.
• A jump of a third in cattle exports and a doubling in
sheep shipments helped drive a rise of 11% in the value of
livestock exports to an estimated €240m.
15%
• The prospects for the meat & livestock sector in 2014
remain broadly positive with relatively tight supplies
persisting across the EU for most species. While slow
consumer demand is likely to continue, the overall trading
environment is expected to be broadly positive, helped by
strong global prices.
Dairy Products & Ingredients
• Strong global dairy prices combined with increased Irish
availability as the year progressed helped boost the value of
dairy product and ingredients exports by an estimated 15%
to exceed €3 billion for the first time.
• Tight global supplies and a spike in Chinese demand led to
international dairy prices reaching record levels in April with
Fonterra auction WMP prices reaching $6,283 USD/tonne
compared to $2,766 in April 2012. Prices eased from this
peak for around two months but started to firm again to
year end, reflecting the ongoing tight supply situation.
• Milk deliveries in Ireland were significantly impacted by poor
weather during the spring. April deliveries were some 11%
behind the same month in 2012. Good weather, excellent
grass growth rates and good ground conditions resulted in a
surge in Irish milk deliveries from June with volumes for July
– October running 9% above 2012.
• The strongest performing product categories were butter,
cheese, infant formula, milk & cream, WMP and whey.
• Strong double digit growth was evident across most
European markets for Irish dairy products in 2013. In terms
of International markets significant increases to China and
parts of South East Asia offset reduced exports to the
United States, Saudi Arabia and South Africa.
• The prospects for Irish dairy exports in 2014 remain broadly
positive with global demand likely to help clear any increase
in output to keep prices well ahead of historical averages.
Global stock levels and the relative strength of the euro will
largely determine price prospects. Some further growth in
Irish output is likely as producers gear up for the removal of
quotas in 2015.
Prepared Foods
• Prepared Food exports showed varied trends in 2013 with
fat filled milk powders increasingly strongly on the back of
good global demand while some traditional categories faced
a strongly competitive marketplace reflecting higher input
costs, negative currency movements, difficulty in securing
higher prices and competitor activity.
• Overall, exports of products covered under the prepared
foods category increased by 15% to an estimated €1.65
billion. If value added meats and poultry are included,
exports were in excess of €2 billion.
• The strongest performing categories were fat filled milk
powders – which accounted for 80% of the export growth
in the category – cooked meats, pizza, sauces, bakery and to
a lesser extent confectionery. These helped to largely offset a
slower trade in the frozen ready meal category in particular.
• While the UK continues to account for almost 40% of
exports, ongoing diversification to markets across the rest of
Europe and niche opportunities in International markets help
improve the market mix of the sector.
• The strong focus by the sector on new product
development, innovation and the identification of new
customers leave it well positioned to identify and develop
market opportunities as they emerge.
• As always, there are a number of factors outside the direct
control of exporters that could significantly impact on
export performance such as input costs, trends in consumer
sentiment and the potential to deliver higher food prices.
However, most exporters anticipate increased sales in 2014.
Beverages
• The Irish beverage sector put in a solid performance in 2013
as ongoing growth in whiskey combined with stronger
exports of non-alcoholic beverages helped to offset reduced
trade in cider, beer and cream liqueurs. Overall, exports are
estimated to have declined marginally to reach €1.25bn.
• Despite the ongoing competitive pressures exports to the
UK performed reasonably well at €400m. Lower beer,
Prepared Foods exports were 15% higher in 2013
led by strong growth in fat filled milk powders
cream liqueur and cider exports were offset by increased
shipments of whiskey and mineral waters. Internationally,
slower trade was reported to markets such as Canada,
Australia and Russia, which offset increased exports to
South Africa and the Middle East.
• The outlook for Irish beverage exports in 2014 remains
positive helped by an anticipated further rise in whiskey
sales, the ongoing development of emerging markets and
an anticipated return to growth for some key categories.
The ability of the sector to continue to develop new markets
and innovative product solutions for developed markets will
be critical.
Seafood
• Seafood exports recorded a slight decline in 2013. This
follows growth of almost 65% in the value of exports over
the 2009 – 2012 period. The main factor behind this easing
was production and raw material limitations as unit prices
were around 7% higher in the 10 months to the end of
October.
• Overall for the year, the value of seafood exports is estimated
to have eased by 2% to an estimated €520 million.
• Any increase in seafood exports in 2014 will be driven by
price increases as volumes are not likely to change greatly.
Demand levels seem set to remain strong for most species
in emerging markets and a number of smaller European
markets. Together these offer the potential for modest
growth in export values.
Edible Horticulture & Cereals
• Stronger mushroom exports were offset by lower grain prices
as the year progressed to put some pressure on exports in
2013. Overall, exports of edible horticulture and cereals are
estimated to have declined marginally to €225 million.
• The relative strength of the Euro will continue to be a major
factor influencing mushroom exports in 2014. However,
further growth is anticipated in UK retail sales over the
course of 2014, which will help boost trade.
5
75%
The results of Bord Bia’s annual industry survey suggests
that 75% of exporters anticipate higher sales in 2014
Industry Issues
Consumer Trends
• The results of the annual Bord Bia industry survey,
completed in late December 2013, shows good optimism
among food and drink manufacturers across all categories.
In total, more than 8 out of 10 reported higher or similar
turnover over the last 12 months.
• Bord Bia’s global PERIscope study helps us to fully
understand today’s consumer by exploring consumer eating
behaviours, purchasing attitudes and shopping & cooking
trends among consumers in the Irish and UK markets as
well as globally. The results of this study allow us to identify
strong consumer themes that dominate the consumer
landscape. These include:
• Looking ahead to 2014, some 75% of exporters expect their
sales to grow.
• For those respondents that reported an increase in turnover
over the last 12 months, the following were the principal
reasons listed;
o 72% had increased sales of existing
products to existing customers.
o 72% had increased sales of existing
products to new customers.
o 59% had delivered sales of new
products to existing customers.
o 59% had developed sales of new
products to new customers.
• Innovation remains important for many food and drink
manufacturers with 91% of exporters reporting that they
had introduced new products in the last three years. The
majority of these involved variations of existing products
rather than the scientific development of new products e.g.
new pack sizes (74%), new flavours or variants of existing
products (72%), products new to the company but using
established technology (67%) and new pack types (61%).
6
o A Foodie World
Across the countries surveyed that there is a new
‘Foodie’ attitude - one where food is enjoyable and plays
a stronger role in our lives. An encouraging behaviour
is the reported increase in scratch cooking with 2/3
consumers claiming to scratch cook. On the flip side is
the decline in usage of prepared meals.
o Back to Basics
As our interest in food increases and our scratch cooking
improves we are also seeing a ‘back to basics’ approach
to buying and preparing food – more people are seeking
more time with the family, are seeking out local and
seasonal ingredients and produce, and transparency is
being seen as a strong mark of quality and trust.
o The Environment
Consumer’s awareness of the environment and
environmentally conscious companies and whether or
not it is a key driver in purchase decisions has begun to
change. However, it is not currently their top priority
given the continuing economic pressure people find
themselves under.
o Health & Wellness
People are looking for a balanced approach to their
health and to have greater control through the choices
they make. However with the increase in availability of
information and more education and awareness as to
ingredients and product benefits, there can often be
confusion as to what it actually healthy. Shoppers are
therefore looking to manufacturers and producers to
help them regain control over their health.
Technology is one of the key catalysts affecting our
shopper behaviour and it will continue to change
the way in which we shop. The increasing levels of
smartphone ownership deliver more information
to consumers and they are able to access more
information at the touch of a button whether it is at
the shelf or at home.
Food & Drink Export Trends & Drivers
The value of Irish food
and drink exports
INCREASED BY
9% to approach
€10BN
for the first time
This leaves exports 40% or almost €3bn higher than 2009 levels
The euro
Price inflation across
the eurozone moved
tentatively upwards
strengthened
against both
sterling and the
US dollar
in 2013, rising by
in 2013, rising
almost 3% to the
by 5% and 3%
end of October
respectively
Continental EU markets rebounded impressively in 2013 with exports increasing by 11%
75%
The United Kingdom accounted for
of exports in
42% 2013
with trade valued at €4.1
billion
75% of exporters that took part in Bord Bia's annual
industry survey expect their sales to grow in 2014
International markets built on the impressive
performance of recent years with trade growing by
43%
The FAO Food
Price Index
declined slightly in
2013
led by weaker
sugar, oil and
cereals prices
Exports to China were 43%
higher at €390m. Trade has
trebled since 2010
However it remains 60% ahead
of the 2000 to 2010 average
6% to exceed €2.6 billion
7
Performance by Category
Exports of edible horticulture and
cereals were marginally lower at
Exports of prepared
foods increased by
15% to an estimated
€1.65BN
led by strong growth in
€225 million
Despite a drop of around
2%
production, the value of
3%
fat filled milk powders
despite growth of 4% in mushrooms
2% in pigmeat
Irish pigmeat exports
grew by 3% to
€525 million
Beef exports were
10%
HIGHER
MILK
at almost €2.1bn.
This reflects a rise
Strong global
dairy prices
of 5% in output
and over 4% in
liqueur exports offset
65%
and mineral waters
65% over the 2009 – 2012 period
average prices
Irish beverage exports were
€1.25BN
8
and higher Irish
marginally lower at €1.25bn
as slower beer, cider and
strong growth in whiskey
Seafood exports declined slightly.
However this follows growth of almost
output led to
the value of
The combined value of
meat and livestock exports
increased by 8% to reach
dairy product
and ingredients
exports rising
by 15%
€3.3BN to exceed
IN 2013 €3BILLION
for the first time
Marketing Environment
The value of Irish food and drink
exports approached €10bn for the
first time in 2013 as exports recorded
a further 9% growth.
Overview
The Irish food and drink sector continued the
strong export performance of recent years
during 2013 despite the ongoing competitive
nature of most markets. Trade was boosted by
strong global prices and higher output in key
sectors, which helped offset some strengthening
of the euro against key currencies.
Consumers are starting to look ahead again and
focussing on enjoying what they have rather
than mourn what they have lost. They expect
that times ahead will remain challenging and
meeting the cost of everyday essentials can
still weigh heavily on consumer’s minds. This
emerging landscape offers many opportunities
for brands and companies, provided they clearly
understand the evolving needs of consumers.
9
1
3000
1
2000
€3bn
The value of Irish food and drink exports increased
by 40% or €3bn during the 2009 - 2013 period
Overview
The Irish food and drink sector continued the strong export
performance of recent years during 2013 despite the ongoing
competitive nature of most markets. Trade was boosted by
strong global prices and higher output in key sectors. Ongoing
austerity measures across a number of developed markets
continued to create a price competitive environment for
exporters as consumers maintain a strong focus on spending.
However, exporters have shown strong resilience in the face of
this pressure.
For the year it is estimated that the value of Irish food
and drink exports increased by almost 9% to approach
width 83 height 55
€10bn for the first time. This growth reflects the increased
diversification of exports and the progress made by the
sector to boost the market position of food and drink
products across key markets.
Irish Food and drink exports, 2005 to 2013 (€m)
Irish Food and drink exports, 2005 to 2013 (€m)
10000
9000
The strongest performers were dairy, meat and livestock and
prepared foods. A competitive market environment led to slower
beverage exports, although whiskey continued to perform
very strongly while seafood saw a levelling off in export values
following a rise of almost 65% during the 2009 – 2012 period.
Irish food and drink exports
83 height
30
2012width
2013
2013/
€m
(e) €m 2012
% +/Dairy products & ingredients
2,640
3,045
+15
Beef
1,900
2,090
+10
Prepared Foods
1,424
1,645
+15
Beverages
1,257
1,250
-1
Pigmeat
Growth in exports by region,510
2013 vs. 525
2012 (%)+3
Seafood
534
520
-3
Edible Horticulture & Cereals
227
225
-1
Poultry
221
230
+4
Sheepmeat
212
220
+4
Live Animals
217
240
+11
TOTAL FOOD & DRINKS
9,141
9,990
+9
40
35
7000
30
6000
43
39
25
Resilience
of sector remains strong
5000
20
4000
3000
2000
2005
2006
2007
2008 2009
2010
2011
2012 2013(e)
Source: Bord Bia estimates
Figures from the CSO for the first 21
10 months of 2013, show
that15overall merchandise exports from Ireland fell by more than
6%.10The performance of food and drink exports during the
period was in direct contrast with growth of over 8% recorded.
CSO5figures show that relative to 2009 levels total merchandise
0 were 4% higher in 2013, which compares to growth
exports
+1
0 for
of 40%
in food and drink exports. Food and drink
accounts
-5
Russia
Sth. East
Africa
Middle
two third China
of total indigenous
exports.
Asia
Trend in Food & Drink and Merchandise Exports,
2005 to date (% Change versus previous year)
10
10
East
Consumer food price index developments,
January to October (% change on previous year)
15
5.0
2005
2006
2007
2008 2009
2010
2011
2012 2013(e)
-
45
8000
1000
1000
Trend in Food & Drink and Merchandise Exports,
Trend
in date
food (%
& drink
versus
overall
merchandise
2005 to
Change
versus
previous
year)
exports, 2005 to date (% change on previous year)
C
J
15
10
5
5
4
0
4
-5
3
-10
3
-15
2005
2006 2007
2008 2009
2010
2011
2
2012 2013(e)
2
Merchandise
Food and Drink
1
1
Source: Bord Bia based on CSO
0
Higher volumes
in Harmonised
key categories
Trends reported
in Ireland’s
Competitiveness (%)
In a reversal of trends evident over recent years, some volume
growth was recorded across key categories, most notably
beef and dairy.
20 Finished cattle supplies are estimated to have
increased by 7% in 2013 and despite lower average carcase
Marketdue
distribution
of Irish
food in
and
weights
to poor grazing
conditions
thedrink
springexports
of the (%)
15
year, output was around 5% higher. After a slow start to the
year milk production up to the end of October was running
10
16.1%
2% ahead of year earlier levels. However, both categories
also
45
recorded price increases and in the case of dairy this was 2012
the
2013 (e)
5
key
while for beef the rise in exports was a
40 driver of growth
combination of volume and value increases.
35
0
D
(
0
30
The combined impact of -7.7%
higher beef and milk output in
-5
2013 is estimated to be in the region
which
25
32 of €160m,
27 values
equates42to less 42
than 30% of31the growth in export
26
20
-10
for these categories.
Jan 2005 - Apr 2008
Apr 2008 - Jan 2013
15
Higher
volumes were also recorded in sheepmeat and
10
mushrooms while reduced output was evident in some key
5
beverage
categories
and
pigmeat.
FAO food
price
index trends, 2013 versus 2012 (2002 –
2004=100)
0
United Kingdom
220
Continental EU
Int. Markets
2012
2013
Merchandise
Food and Drink
1.5
1.5
1.0
11%
1.6
2.4
2.9
3.2
4.4
4.4
0.5
Exports
Continental European markets rebounded
0.0to Ireland
France
Italy
Nether- Spain
UK
Germany
impressively in 2013, rising by 11%
to reach €3.2 billion
lands
Market
(%) Exports were driven by the strong performance of key markets
Market distribution
distributionof
ofIrish
Irishfood
foodand
anddrink
drinkexports
exports
suchDevelopments
as Germany, France
the Netherlands
all of which
(%)
byand
product
type, January
to October
recorded double digit growth.
(% change in index on previous year)
Consolidation anticipated for 2014
Following the strong growth recorded in 2013, the market
environment for Irish food and drink exports remains broadly
positive for the year ahead.
45
Some further rise in output is expected across key sectors
and ongoing strong demand is anticipated in emerging
economies. Much will depend on demand developments in
more established markets with consumer sentiment to remain a
critical driver.
2012
2013 (e)
40
International markets
35
4.0
30
25
20
The outlook for the global dairy sector remains broadly positive
width
although much will depend on the supply response to the
15
recent high prices. The ever improving market position achieved
10
by the Irish dairy sector leaves the industry well placed to deal
with pressures that may emerge.
42
42
31
32
27
26
83 height 55
5
Similarly in relation to beef, the market profile of Irish beef
0
Irish FoodUnited
and Kingdom
drink exports,
2005 to
Continental
EU2013 (€m)
Int. Markets
continues to grow across key accounts and with a broadly
stable EU market expected in 2014, prospects remain generally
Source: Bord Bia estimates
positive, although some pressure may be evident in the early10000
part of the year.
United Kingdom
9000
The share of exports destined for the United Kingdom remained
The beverage sector remains competitive in most categories
8000 at 42% in 2013. Trade increased in line with overall exports to
and this trend seems set to continue although further growth
in whiskey and a renewed rise in cider exports is anticipated. 7000 stand at an estimated �4.1 billion. The main drivers of export
growth to the UK were beef, dairy and to a lesser extent
Prepared food export values are likely to be driven to a large
6000
prepared foods. A slower demand left beverage exports largely
extent by demand for fat filled milk powders, which seems
set to remain positive. Other categories such as confectionery,5000 unchanged.
ready meals and pizzas are expected to record some growth.
4000
The drivers of this growth were dairy, prepared foods and beef.
Continental EU
Stronger trade to euro markets
3000 Following a difficult trade in 2012 due to slow economic
demand and more favourable trade elsewhere, exports of food
There was a settling down in the market distribution of Irish
2000 and drink to Continental EU markets rebounded impressively in
food and drink exports in 2013 following the rise in the share of
2013. For the year exports are estimated to have increased by
trade going to International markets over recent years. This was
1000
2005
2012over
2013(e)
11% to2006
reach 2007
around2008
�3.2 2009
billion,2010
which 2011
represents
32%
led by the stronger performance of ‘Continental EU’ markets.
of total exports.
International trade continued to be driven by strong exports to
Asia and Russia.
Shipments of Irish food and drink products outside of Europe
built 3.5
on the impressive performance of the previous two years,
which saw the value of trade jump by almost 30%. For the year
Euro
average,
2.9% €2.6 billion. The region
a rise3.0
of 6%
wasArea
recorded
to exceed
accounted for 26% of exports, back marginally on a year earlier.
2.5
Trade in 2013 was led by stronger exports of dairy, fat filled milk
3.8
2.0 seafood and meat.
powders,
3.1
1.5
The growth in exports was led by China, South East Asia
Growth
in Solid
exports
bywas
region,
2013 vs.in2012
and
Russia.
trade
also recorded
Africa(%)
and the
1.0
Middle East. 1.4
1.6
1.7
0.5
Growth in exports by region, 2013 vs. 2012 (%)
0.0
45
Milk, cheese
& eggs
15
Fish/Seafood
Meat
Alc.
Beverages
40
35
30
43
25
39
20
21
15
10
5
0
-5
China
Russia
Source: Bord Bia estimates
Trend in Food & Drink and Merchandise Exports,
2005 to date (% Change versus previous year)
Bread &
Cereals
Sth. East
Asia
+1
0
Africa
Middle
East
Consumer food price index developments,
January to October (% change on previous year)
11
15
3000
2000
1000
0.0
10
3%
2005
2006
-10
0
Eurozone
consumer
2007
2008 2009
2010 food
2011 price
2012 index
2013(e)recorded a
rise of almost 3% in the first 10 months of 2013
-5
Key drivers of export performance
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Italy
+1
0
Consumer prices tentatively rising
Retail price inflation across the eurozone remained tentative
in 2013. The year started brightly with an acceleration of the
growth levels evident in late 2012 and for much of the first six
months prices were 4% ahead of year earlier levels. However,
prices slowed during the course of the autumn in many markets
despite ongoing relatively high input costs. As was the case in
2012, a considerable degree of variation was evident depending
on the market and product in question.
2005
2006 2007
2008 2009
2010
2011
2012 2013(e)
Data from Eurostat for October 2013 shows the consumer food
Merchandise
price index running less than 2% ahead of the corresponding
Food
and Drink
month
a year earlier. On a year to date basis, a rise of almost
3% was evident.
Food price developments were well ahead of overall inflation
during the year with the October index show food prices
inflation running at more than twice overall inflation in the
eurozone economy. This is in direct contrast to 2010/2011 when
food prices lagged overall inflation.
Market
distribution
Irish
foodacross
and drink
exports
(%)
Varying
trends haveof
been
evident
the eurozone
with
Germany, the Netherlands and Spain showing higher than
average inflation. The UK recorded inflation of 4.4% for the first
45 10 months of 2013.
2012
45
40
35
30
25
East
Consumer
Consumerfood
foodprice
priceindex
indexdevelopments,
developments,2012
January
2013 (e)
January
to
October
(%
change
onyear)
previous year)
to October (% change on previous
35
4.5
3.5
4.0 42
20 3.5
15 3.0
42
31
32
27
26
3.0
Euro Area average, 2.9%
10 2.5
2.0
5 2.0
1.5
0 1.5
1.5Kingdom
1.6
1.0United
1.0
Continental
EU
2.4
2.9
3.2 Int. Markets
4.4
4.4
0.5
0.5
0.0
Ireland
France
Italy
Source: Eurostat
Netherlands
Spain
UK
Germany
31
32
20
27
26
3.0
15
2.5
10
2.0
5
1.5
0
12
Apr 2008 - Jan 2013
Continental EU
Int. Markets
0.0
2
2
215
Euro Area average, 2.9%
210
3.8
205
3.1
200
1.4 195
1.6
1.7
190
Milk, cheese Jan
BreadFeb
& Mar
Fish/Seafood
Meat Jul AugAlc.
Apr May Jun
Sep Oct Nov
& eggs
Cereals
Beverages
The outlook for food price inflation across the eurozone remains
Price trends
by commodity
(% change
on same per
difficult to predict.
The forecasts
of stronger economic
growth
a
year
earlier)
in 2014 should help boost consumer confidence and in turn
spending. However, any increase is likely to be gradual.
Competitiveness
of sector
30
The competitiveness of the Irish manufacturing sector as
measured by Ireland’s
Competitiveness Scorecard published by
20
Fórfas continues to improve according to the 2013 report.
3.5
United Kingdom
Jan 2005 - Apr 2008
Germany
Source: Eurostat
Looking at the index for the 10 months to the end of October
there was some variation of trends evident across food and
drink with alcoholic beverages showing the highest inflation
at 3.8% led by theby
Netherlands,
Spain January
and France.
other
Developments
product type,
toThe
October
category
to
record
higher
than
average
inflation
was
meat
at
(% change in index on previous year)
just over 3% driven by higher meat prices in Germany.
4.0
42
UK
220
2.5
30
42
Spain
Developments by product type, January to October
(% changeFAO
in index
previous
year) 2013 versus 2012 (200
foodon
price
index trends,
Developments
by product type, January to October
2004=100)
(% change in index on previous year)
4.0
5.0
2013 (e)
40
25
-7.7%
Netherlands
China
Sth. East
Africaexports
Middle
Russia
Market distribution
of Irish food
and drink
(%)
Trend in Food & Drink and Merchandise Exports,
2005 to date (% Change versus previous year)
10
France
-5
5
Asia
15
Ireland
Euro Area average, 2.9%
3.8
3.1
10
The report highlights
that Ireland ranked 15th out of 185
countries in the World Bank’s competitiveness ranking for 2012.
Ireland was ranked
in the top 10 in terms of the ease of starting
0
a business, paying taxes, protecting investors and resolving
insolvency. However, issues were highlighted in relation to
-10
construction permits and electricity access.
-20
1.0
1.4
0.5
0.0
1.6
1.7
-30
Food
Jan - Nov
Sugar
Oils
Cereals
Meat
Dair
5
220
5.0
owth in exports by region, 2013 vs. 2012 (%)
Trends in Ireland’s Harmonised Competitiveness (%)
4.5
60%
4.0
3.5
20
Euro Area average, 2.9%
3.0
2006 2007
2008 2009
2010
2011
2012 2013(e)
Key euro exchange rate developments, January to
December (% Change on previous year)
The FAO Food Price Index continues to run 60% ahead of
the average level recorded during the 2000 -2010 period
15
2.5
2.0
Following a 7.7% loss in cost competitiveness in real terms
between January 2005 and April 2008, Ireland has regained
andise
1.5
nd Drink
43 some of its competitiveness, helped by a fall in relative prices
39
1.5
1.0
and exchange rate movements. From April 2008 to January
Slowing in most global commodity prices
10
16.1%
Global agricultural commodity prices as measured by the FAO
Food
Price Index
2.4 showed
2.9 some
3.2 further
4.4softening
4.4 in 2013. The
51.6
decline was led by weaker sugar, oil and cereals as supply
2013, the harmonised competitiveness indicator for Ireland
0.5
responded to the higher prices of 2011/2012. This offset
improved in real terms
21 fell by more than 16%.
0
substantial
increase
in dairy
prices with
prices also
0.0 Ireland a France
Italy
NetherSpain
UK meat
Germany
increasing, albeit marginally.
lands
A report by the IMF in 2013 suggested that the full benefits
-7.7%
-5
of recent cost competitiveness gains may not have been
fully realised. The report suggested that exports from
The FAO Food Price Index fell marginally during the first 11
Ireland continue to increase for up to 36 months after cost
-10
months of
run
60%
Jan2013.
2005 However,
- Apr 2008 the index continues
Apr 2008 -toJan
2013
t distribution
of Irish food
+1 exports0(%)
competitiveness
gains. and drink
ahead of the average level recorded during the 2000 -2010
period.
China
Russia
Sth. East
Africa
Middle
Developments
by product type, January to October
Analysis of unit labour
that they have
Asia costs in Ireland show
East
(% change in index on previous year)
fallen by twice as much as the euro average
in recent years and
2012
this is expected by the EU Commission to
continue
into 2014.
FAOfood
foodprice
priceindex
indextrends,
trends,
2013
versus
2012
2013 (e)
FAO
2013
versus
2012
(2002 –
Productivity
the 2006 to 2012 period improved by
nsumer food
price levels
indexover
developments,
(2002
–
2004=100)
2004=100)
in GNP
nuary to 12.5%
October
(% terms.
change on previous year)
Trends in Ireland’s Harmonised Competitiveness4.0
(%)
Trends in Ireland’s Competitiveness (% change)
220
3.5
42
42
20
32
31
27
26
3.0
210
Euro Area average, 2.9%
2.0
10
5
United Kingdom
1.5
0
1.6
16.1%
Continental EU
2.4
France
-10
3.2
Italy
Nether- Spain
lands
Jan 2005 - Apr 2008
205
1.5
215
210
30
205
25
Relative to November 2012, the cereals price index was 24%
20
lower reflecting
a stronger harvest in key exporting regions.
26.3
Sugar and oils were 9% and 1% lower respectively.
200
195
14.4May Jun
Jan Feb Mar Apr
26.3
-
Brazilian Australian
Japanese
Sterling onUSsame period
NZ
Chinese
Price trends
by commodity
(% change
Dollar
Real
Yen
Dollar
Dollar
Yuan
a year earlier)
Price trends by commodity (% change on same period
a year earlier)
Trends in cattle numbers by age, Sept 1st 2013
(change in head vs. 2012)
30
Distribution of Irish beef export volumes (%)
20
10
100000
0
80000
60
60000
-10
3.1
20
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Prospects for prices in 2014 remain
11 reasonably positive but
5 depend on the balance between supply and demand
much will
2.1
3.3in most
across key commodities. Little change is4.8expected
0.7
product 0areas.
25
3.8
15
The dairy price index in November was 23% ahead of the same
month 10
a year earlier while meat was marginally lower.
190
-20
40000
50
Males
Females
2012
2013 (e)
20000
40
0
15
-20000
30
53
-40000 52
46.5
Food
Sugar
Oils
Cereals 45.5 Meat
Dairy
0.5
Jan to Oct
14.4
4.4
4.4
-60000
20
195
1.4%
Jan - Nov
0.0
11
-80000
Nov
Milk, cheese
Bread
&
Fish/Seafood
Meat
Alc.
5
& eggs190
Cereals
Beverages
10
2.1
4.8
Source:-100000
FAO
3.3 Oct Nov
UK
Germany
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Dec 0.7
0-6mths 6-12mths 12-18mths 18-24mths 24-30mths
30-36mths
1.5
1.5
0
Apr 2008 - Jan 2013
Source: FAO Japanese Brazilian Australian Sterling
0
US
NZ
Chinese
United Kingdom
Continental EU
Int. Markets
Dollar
Real
Yen
Dollar
Dollar
Yuan
Int. Markets
-7.7%
-5
Ireland
2.9
Key euro exchange rate developments, January to
2012
December (% Change on previous year)
2013
Euro Area average,
2.9%
30
215
2.5
15
2012
2013
1.0
1.4
200
1.6
10
1.7
-30
Source: Fórfas, Ireland’s Competitiveness Scorecard, 2013
FAO food
price index
versus 2012 (2002 –
velopments
by product
type, trends,
January2013
to October
change2004=100)
in index on previous year)
2012
2013
Price trends by commodity (% change on same period
a year earlier)
Distribution of Irish beef export volumes (%)
30
Irish vs. EU male cattle prices, 2012 to date (c/kg dw)
Distribution of Irish pigmeat export volumes (%)
50
45
13
2012
Ireland (R3 Steers)
2013 (e)
as “fairly” healthy
5%
The euro strengthened against sterling and the US
dollar in 2013, rising by 5% and 3% respectively
56
54
57
55
57
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
such as Aldi or Lidl
Buying food items
on promotion
Less often
10
9
10
More often
49
51
51
11
11
11
Less often
Euro strengthens against key currencies
Consumer Attitudes & Behaviour
The Consumer Landscape
The Euro strengthened against both sterling and the US dollar in
2013, rising by 5% and 3% respectively. However, despite this
exchange rates remain considerably lower than the levels seen
in 2010/2011.
The consumer theme for 2013 was realism.
Our global PERIscope study helps us to fully understand today’s
consumer by exploring consumer eating behaviours, purchasing
attitudes and shopping & cooking trends among consumers
in the Irish and UK markets as well as globally. The results of
this study allow us to identify strong consumer themes that
dominate the consumer landscape.
Today’s consumers have become more wary and vigilant and as
a result it has become more difficult to engage with them. With
the beginning of economic recovery we have seen stirrings of
economic recovery and signs of increased competitiveness from
companies. As the recession has endured, so has the resilience
of consumers and attitudes have changed to give us this theme
ROI
of realism.
With more than 40% of food and drink exports destined for
the sterling area and a further 26% going to markets, which
predominantly trade in US dollars any strengthening has the
potential to impact on competitiveness. However, exporters
appear to have been able to absorb the level of strengthening
evident to date. Also, recent months have seen some recovery
A New Era of Realism
Daily/ few times a
in sterling, which has helped ease some pressure.
week/once
a week are starting
Consumers
to 40
look ahead
40
46 again and
54 focussing
52 on
enjoying
what
they
have
rather
than
mourn
what
they
have lost.
Similar trends were evident with other major currencies such the
Trends
in cattle
by age, one
Sept
1st 2013
From
this a new
era of numbers
realism is emerging,
where
happiness
Australian dollar and the Brazilian real, which has helped boost
(change
in head
vs.
2012)or economic growth.
has
more
currency
than
affluence
their competitiveness on the EU market. The euro exchange rate
with the Chinese yuan was largely unchanged.
Key euro exchange rate developments, January to
Key euro exchange rate developments, 2013
December (% Change on previous year)
(% Change on previous year)
30
outlook and sense of happiness in life.
42
40
33 opportunities
20
This
emerging landscape
offers
many
for26brands
40000
and companies. As consumers’ orientation has shifted from
20000
retrenchment
and self-preservation towards re-connection,
2005
2009
2013
2011
2007
brands
0 have greater permission to act as facilitators in reaching
this goal.
25
20
26.3
15
5
-20000
14.4
11
4.8
0
Japanese Brazilian Australian Sterling
Dollar
Real
Yen
3.3
2.1
US
Dollar
NZ
Dollar
on 2013)
Few times/
Reconnection is the
a rising sense of wellbeing and
18 key to21
We are seeing across the countries surveyed that there is a
once a happiness:
month
belonging to a group or 18
community gives us a sense
new ‘Foodie’6attitude - one where food is enjoyable and plays
of identity, it helps us understand who we are and feel22part
a stronger role in our lives. In Ireland, we are beginning to take
25new points of Males
of something larger. Reaching out and finding
100000
more enjoyment
5 from cooking and our confidence levels in our
connection is becoming a key factor in shaping the consumer Females
cooking abilities are steadily increasing. Another encouraging
80000
Less often/
never
60000
10
A Foodie World
We know today the economic situation is a top of mind theme
in many of World’s developed markets. However consumers
are finding new ways to cope with the pressures of a new
reality. The need to scale back and at the same time realising
what is important in consumers’ lives has led to positive lifestyle
choices. Food is one of the core elements that underpins the
positive shifts in lifestyle and balances some of the tensions
Global
pigmeat
production
2014 (% change
people have
between
competing
priorities intrends,
their lives.
0.7
behaviour is the reported increase in scratch cooking with
4
two thirds of consumers claiming to scratch cook (only using
raw, fresh ingredients) and the frequency of this behaviour is
3 the flip side is the decline in usage of prepared
increasing. On
meals suggesting that despite time pressures, people want to
feel more involved
in the cooking experience.
2
5
Scratch cooking on the increase
With
this new era of realism, consumers expect that times
-40000
ahead will remain challenging and meeting the cost of everyday
-60000
essentials
can still weigh heavily on consumers minds. Attitudes
and
(arguably) values have permanently shifted as times have
-80000
ROI
remained challenging and as ever, understanding the lives of
2013
-100000
consumers
today is6-12mths
of fundamental
importance.
0-6mths
12-18mths
18-24mths 24-30mths 30-36mths
2007
2005
14
1
Distribution of Irish pigmeat export volumes (%)
2
1.7
Cooking from scratch
0
World
% Once
a day/ Russia
few times United
a day
48
States
% Few times
Brazil perChina
week
18
35
EU
Canad
65
51
22
29
1
63
20
43
1
67
19
47
2009
Source: Central Bank of Ireland
Distribution of Irish beef export volumes (%)
1
2011
Chinese
Yuan
2.6
21
56
Agri commodity price forecasts, 2014 (USc/bushel)
Soybeans
as “fairly” healthy
such as Aldi or Lidl
56
54
57
55
57
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Back to Basics
As our interest in food increases and our scratch cooking
improves we are also seeing a ‘back to basics’ approach to
buying and preparing food – more people are wanting to spend
more time with the family, are seeking out local and seasonal
ingredients and produce, and transparency is being seen as a
strong mark of quality and trust.
Frequency of “local food” purchases
ROI
Daily/ few times a
week/once a week
Few times/
once a month
Buying food items
on promotion
18
40
46
54
21
18
25
52
2005
40
2007
33
2009
20
2011
9
10
More often
49
51
51
11
11
11
Less often
64%
84
75
85
80
A new mindset of realism means that consumers now must
carefully
consider what causes they can support
30 and where
28
Describe
their diet
22
23
21
theirhealthy
budget can be allocated too. Consumer awareness of the
as “very”
environment and whether or not it was a key driver in purchase
decisions and their awareness of environmentally conscious
companies has begun to change. There is increasing awareness
in Ireland around environmental terms such as food miles,
Describe
their diet
carbon
footprint and
which
has55
continued
56 sustainability
54
57
57 to
22
as “fairly”
healthy
improve
over time.
Less often/ never
42
10
Our Irishness 2013 study sought to further understand the
growing importance of local to consumers. Consumers want to
do the right thing and purchase Irish products and they want the
retailers to help them to make this decision. However, consumers
are still very much price sensitive and since they view Irish
brands as being more expensive than foreign brands, they tend
to purchase them where possible. There are certain categories
where they will always buy Irish for example meat and dairy and
it is these categories in which the quality mark and country of
origin symbols have a central role of importance to play. Irishness
ROI that consumers seek.
helps to facilitate that local connection
The
Environment
NET
‘Healthy’
79
40
Less often
26
The environment continues to be of importance to consumers.
Almost six in ten2005
in Ireland
are conscious
environmental
2009 of 2011
2013
2007
issues when buying groceries. However it is not currently their
top priority given the continuing economic pressure people find
themselves under and is therefore not a key purchase driver.
PERIscope shows that 64% of consumers
look at price first thing when shopping
price first, it doesn’t necessarily mean that this will be the main
purchase driver and instead are likely to look at the quality and
the value that brings. The shopper increasingly wants greater
transparency and to know where their food is coming from.
Companies need to respond to this demand accordingly.
Irish shopping behaviour changing (%)
ROI
2009
2011
2013
35
32
42
13
17
16
48
50
58
Less often
10
9
10
More often
49
51
51
11
11
11
Spreading my
shopping across a
number of shops to
get the best value
More often
Shopping in
discount retailers
such as Aldi or Lidl
More often
Buying food items
on promotion
Less often
Less often
2013
Seven out of ten people in Ireland believe buying local food is
important (up from 50% eight years ago). We’re also buying
local food more often, with half buying at least once a week and
the frequency of purchasing local food is gradually improving.
Consumers are seeking out products from local producers as
local is a synonym for quality, trust and transparency.
Three out of four people in Ireland are regularly seeking out the
country of origin labelling and Quality marks on packs as an
indicator of quality and trust. Out of the ten countries we looked
at, Ireland ranked second in looking for Quality Marks and fifth
in the importance of looking for Country of Origin labelling.
Shopping Around
The global recession has fundamentally changed attitudes to
the marketplace and what represents good value; with this
consumer’s shopping behaviour
and attitudes have changed.
Cooking from scratch
Consumers today are smarter and savvier with their money and
% Few times
more willing
to shop
around than ever before.
per week
% Once a day/ few times a day
ROI
2013
19
48
The marketplace has seen an influx of promotions by brands
in an attempt to attract consumers enticing them to make
a saving. This may have been one of the more common
behaviours in the early days of the economic recession however
today, consumers are less likely to shop on promotion or
purchase on impulse. Consumers are more frugal and shopping
is frequently dictated by a shopping list to avoid the risk of
67
waste or lackadaisical spending.
Some 64% of consumers agree that they look for price first
65
18
47 has increased steadily since
2011 shopping. This figure
thing when
2005. 2009
However what is encouraging
is
that
nearly
8
out
of
10
63 As expected, shopping in discounters is becoming a more
20
43
consumers agree that the quality of fresh food is more important
mainstream behaviour as 58% of shoppers report that they are
ROI
51
22
29
2007
than price. So just because consumers are more likely to check
shopping these outlets more often than they did a year ago.
Daily/ few times a
week/once a week
56
21
35
2005
15
40
40
46
54
52
28%
Some 28% of Irish consumers describe their diet as being
very healthy, reflecting an increased focus on their diet
We have also seen a rise in the number claiming to spread their
shopping among several stores as they search for the best value.
The online channel continues to develop and although the
behaviour of online grocery shopping is more prevalent with our
GB counterparts, it is slowly increasing among Irish shoppers.
Health & Wellness
Health & wellness continues to increase in significance and
is one of the most prominent consumer trends over the last
decade. People are looking for a balanced approach to their
health and to have greater control through the choices they
make and aim to manage their diet more responsibly.
Perception of health
ROI
84
NET ‘Healthy’
79
75
80
Describe their diet
as “very” healthy
23
21
22
Describe their diet
as “fairly” healthy
30
85
28
56
54
57
55
57
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
This is reflected in the number of consumers who claim to
be eating healthier than they did 12 months ago as 1 in 3
report this behaviour. Consumers are actively looking to eat
healthier and make the right decisions for their diet and lifestyle.
However with the increase in availability of information and
more education and awareness as to ingredients and product
benefits, there can often be confusion as to what it actually
healthy. Shoppers are therefore looking to manufacturers and
producers to help them regain control over their health with
67% agreeing that they would like help from manufacturers.
16
ROI
The Lunchtime Occasion
The lunchtime occasion is growing in significance for consumers
as they begin to use this occasion to control their budget and
also their ingredients as a way to manage diet and health. Our
Lunchtime Occasion study which was completed early in 2013
explored the eating habits around the lunchtime occasion and
the various tools and foods that consumers are using to control
their budget and ingredients. Almost two thirds of lunches
consumed in the workplace are brought from home which is
one way to control your food budget and limiting frivolous
spending on lunches. Bringing lunch from home is also one
tool for managing ingredients used and calories consumed.
The sandwich is still the most consumed lunchtime food with
ROI The
over 40% of consumers opting for bread based lunches.
versatility of the sandwich in terms of fillings2009
and healthy
2011
2013
ingredients and the combined cost effectiveness, makes the
sandwichSpreading
the lunchtime
hero.
my
More often
shopping across a
35
32
42
number Shopper:
of shops to Looking to the Future
Tomorrow’s
Less often
get further
the bestinto
valuehow such shopper behaviour is changing
We delved
13
17
16
with our Tomorrow’s Shopper study which looks at how shoppers’
behaviour will continue to change and develop in the future.
Technology
is one of the keyMore
catalysts
oftenaffecting our shopper
Shopping in
50 we 58
behaviour
and itretailers
will continue to change the 48
way in which
discount
shop. The
levels ofLess
Smartphone
ownership
deliver
suchincreasing
as Aldi or Lidl
often
10
9
10
more information to consumers and they are able to access
more information at the touch of a button whether it is at the
shelf or at home. Shopping behaviour is evolving and it is the
rise of digital technology that
has often
become a macro driver and
More
49
51
51
food
enablerBuying
for how
weitems
interact with brands and how this will
evolve in on
thepromotion
future.
Less often
11
11
11
By 2015, 9 out of 10 of Irish people will own a smartphone and
by the end of this year smartphones in the UK will outnumber
PCs. With the rise of 4G networks we will see greater upload
and download speeds enabling better interactions with brands
and shoppers. Brand needs to be aware of the various channels
in which shoppers interact on their path to purchase and have a
corresponding multi-channel digital strategy looking at online,
mobile and social commerce.
Sectoral Review and Outlook
Overview
The strongest export performers in 2013 were
dairy, meat & livestock and prepared foods. A
competitive market environment led to slower
beverage exports, although whiskey continued
to perform very strongly. Seafood saw a levelling
off in exports following a rise of almost 65%
over the 2009 to 2012 period.
The market environment for Irish food and drink
exports remains broadly positive for the year
ahead. Some further rise in output is expected
across key sectors and ongoing strong demand
is anticipated in emerging economies. However,
much will depend on developments in more
established markets with consumer sentiment to
remain a critical driver.
17
It is estimated that the combined value of meat and livestock
exports increased by 8% or almost €245m to reach €3.3 billion
Meat & Livestock
+8% €3.3bn
The meat and livestock sector built on the strong performance
of recent years in 2013. A combination of higher output in some
categories, most notably beef and sheepmeat together with
stronger prices for cattle and pigs helped boost the value of trade.
A rise of 7% in sheep output helped offset lower carcase
weights and a marginal drop in prices to leave the value of Irish
sheepmeat exports over 4% higher at �220m.
A jump of a third in cattle exports and a doubling in sheep
shipments helped drive a rise of 11% in the value of livestock
exports to leave trade valued at an estimated �240m.
Meat &
Livestock
exports
For the year, it is estimated that the value of meat and livestock
exports increased by 8% or �245m to reach �3.3 billion. This
leaves the sector accounting for a third of food and drink exports.
Key drivers of export performance
•Higher pig and cattle prices, rising by 6% and 4% respectively.
•Stronger cattle, sheep and poultry volumes.
•Well balanced EU market.
•Good international demand for pigmeat, poultry
and sheepmeat.
•Sluggish EU demand for most categories.
Summary performance by category
The value of beef exports increased by almost 10% reflecting a
rise of 5% in output and a 4% increase in average prices. As a
result, exports were valued at just under �2.1 billion.
Despite a drop of around 2% in pigmeat production, a rise
of almost 6% in pig prices helped to boost the value of Irish
pigmeat exports by 3% to reach �525 million.
18
The competitive market environment for poultry persisted in
2013 although some improvement in prices led to the value of
poultry exports rising by 4% to an estimated �230m.
Irish Meat & Livestock Exports
2012
em
2013
2013/
(e) €m 2012
% +/-
Beef
1,900
2,090
+10
Pigmeat
510
525
+3
Poultry
221
230
+4
Sheepmeat
212
220
+4
Live Animals
217
240
+11
TOTAL MEAT & LIVESTOCK
3,060
3,305
+8
Beef
A further tightening in EU beef output helped offset some
increase in EU imports and ongoing slow demand in a number
of key markets. The stable market is reflected in the fact that EU
male cattle prices were largely unchanged in 2013.
Key beef export market developments in 2013
•Drop of 2% in EU beef output.
•EU beef imports up by 9% with exports down by 25%.
•Irish beef production 5% higher.
•Stable European male cattle prices.
+10% €2.1bn
€3.3bn
Beef
exports
Export meat plant cattle supplies are estimated to have
increased by almost 7% in 2013 to almost 1.5 million head. This
increase was led by stronger steer, heifer and cow disposals,
which more than offset a decline in young bull availability.
The poor weather witnessed during the spring and early
summer had a negative impact on average carcase weights,
which were around 3% lower for the year.
As a result, total beef production reached an estimated 520,000
tonnes. With domestic consumption levels showing a modest
decline, the volume of beef available for export stood at around
470,000 tonnes. This combined with a rise of 4% in average
prices led to the value of Irish beef exports increasing by
10% to just under e2.1bn.
Jan 2005 - Apr 2008
0
Apr 2008 - Jan 2013
FAO food price index trends, 2013 versus 2012 (2002 –
2004=100)
220
215
210
205
200
195
190
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
NZ
Dollar
Chinese
Yuan
10%
The value of beef exports increased
10%
to just export
under €2.1
billion
Distribution ofby
Irish
pigmeat
volumes
(%)
50
2012
€m
2013 (e)
€m
2013/2012
% +/-
1,900
2,090
+10
The proportion of exports destined for European markets
remained at almost 99% in 2013.The positioning of Irish beef in
our key markets continues to progress, with almost two thirds of
our export volumes now destined for the higher value standard
retail, premium foodservice and retail or quick service sectors.
Markets for Irish beef
60
Global beef supplies to show little change
40
2012
2013 (e)
50
30
52
53
45.5
In terms
5 of exports, trade by the top five exporters is forecast to
rise by 5% with most this increased trade destined for Asia and
0
the Middle
East. Kingdom
United
Continental EU
Int. Markets
20
1.5
United Kingdom
Continental EU
1.5
Int. Markets
Source: Bord Bia estimates
Irish vs. EU male cattle prices, 2012 to date (c/kg dw)
Outlook for 2014
The prospects for the EU market in 2014 point to a modest
increase in output with demand remaining somewhat slow. In
terms of demand, much will depend on consumer spending
levels. It is interesting to note that the meat consumer
Ireland price
(R3 Steers)
index for the eurozone was ahead of overall foodEUinflation
for
(R3 Y Bulls)
500
much of 2013, which helped boost returns somewhat. However,
it also put pressure on purchase volumes among relatively high
450
priced meats such as beef with retail sales volumes showing a
drop of 3% in some markets. Slow consumer demand seems set
400
to persist into much of 2014.
350
Exports of Irish beef to International markets were somewhat
higher as stronger trade to Switzerland and to a lesser extent
Russia and Africa helped offset slower trade to some other
markets. For the year, it is estimated that Irish beef exports
outside of the EU reached 8,000 tonnes and were worth over
�25 million.
Food
Jan - Nov
Nov
Sugar
Oils
Cereals
Meat
Dairy
Key beef market drivers for 2014
300•Modest recovery in EU beef production.
•Slow EU consumer demand anticipated.
250•Rise of 4% in global beef trade, driven by Brazil,
India and Argentina.
200•Rise of 6% in Irish cattle supplies.
150
44
10
46.5
10
Exports to the Continent faced some price resistance during the
year in response to slow consumer demand and relatively high
beef prices.
44
25
of Irish
theSep
United
Jan Volumes
Feb Mar
Apr beef
May destined
Jun Jul for
Aug
Oct Kingdom
Nov Dec
Exports to Continental Europe showed marginal growth
at 214,000 tonnes. Higher exports to Scandinavia, France,
Germany and the Netherlands helped offset slower trade to
Italy. Trade was valued at around �960 million, a rise of �60m
on 2012 levels.
Little change is expected in global beef supplies in 2014
35 trade levels seem set to grow further driven largely by
although
rising30import demand from China.
The main drivers of output growth globally in 2014 are set to 37
be
Brazil20and India where output looks set to grow by 3% and 5%
33 of 6%
respectively.
However, this will be largely offset by a drop
15
in US output reflecting the drop in
their
cattle
herd.
20
22
40
0
2012
2013 (e)
45
Distribution of Irish beef export volumes (%)
increased during 2013, reflecting higher availability and the
relatively high prices prevailing in the UK. For the year shipments
are estimated to have increased by 5% to 250,000 tonnes
or 53% of total exports. In value terms, trade was worth an
Price trends
by commodity
same
period
estimated
�1.1 billion, a(%
risechange
of almoston
�90
million
on year
a year earlier)
earlier levels.
30
US
Dollar
Distribution of Irish beef export volumes (%)
2012
2013
Beef Exports (€m)
Japanese Brazilian Australian Sterling
Dollar
Real
Yen
01/2012
02/2012
03/2012
04/2012
05/2012
06/2012
07/2012
08/2012
09/2012
10/2012
11/2012
12/2012
01/2013
02/2013
03/2013
04/2013
05/2013
06/2013
07/2013
08/2013
09/2013
10/2013
11/2013
-10
EU output to recover slightly
Beef output in the EU-15 region is expected to increase by
around 1% in 2014 with a number of countries that experienced
declines in 2013 forecasting some recovery. For example,
French output is expected to increase by 2% and Italian output
EU GIP pigmeat production in 2014 (% change on
is to level off following a significant decline in 2013. In the
previous year)
Netherlands, a 3% growth in output is anticipated. Little change
is expected in consumption levels.
In terms of trade, the EU is expected to remain a net exporter of
beef in 2014 as increased demand from North Africa, the Middle
East and Asia help trade.
2013
2014 (p)
0.5
0.3 9% in 2013 reflecting
EU beef imports recorded a rise of around
higher shipments from Brazil, Australia in particular. However,
0.0
volumes remained 40% below peak levels. For 2014 some
-0.3North American
further
-0.5 recovery in imports is anticipated with
shipments likely to increase, albeit from very low levels.
-0.9
-1.0
Irish prices remain ahead of EU levels
-1.5
Following-1.6
a rise of more than-1.6
20% in the previous-1.5
two years,
EU -2.0
R3 young bull prices were largely unchanged in 2013. The
prospects for 2014 point to reasonably stable price levels,
-2.5 by a tightening in supplies during the second half among
helped
some key producers.
-3.0
-3.5
Year
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
-3.3
194
Qtr
44
50
37
20
40
6%
30
52
46.5
22
10
45.5
400
0
15
Irish R3 steers versus EU R3 male cattle prices,
2012
to date (c/kg dw)
10
16.1%
Ireland (R3 Steers)
EU (R3 Y Bulls)
500 5
450 0
400 -5
350-10
-7.7%
United Kingdom
Continental EU
Int. Markets
Further rise expected in Irish cattle supplies
Key euro exchange rate developments, January to
Weak live cattle exports and a rise of more than 100,000
December (% Change on previous year)
in calf registrations during 2012 point to increased finished
cattle availability in 2014. Figures from the Department of
30
Agriculture’s
AIM database for September 1st 2013 show a
GIP pigmeat
2014
(%aged
change
riseEU
of 83,000
head in production
the number ofinmale
cattle
18 – on
24
previous
year)
months.
25 Female numbers in this age bracket were 61,000 head
higher although at least some of this increase is down to higher
breeding
20 heifer retention in the dairy sector.
26.3
-1.5
250
FAO food price index trends, 2013 versus 2012 (2002 –
2002004=100)
01/2012
02/2012
03/2012
04/2012
05/2012
06/2012
07/2012
08/2012
09/2012
10/2012
11/2012
12/2012
01/2013
02/2013
03/2013
04/2013
05/2013
06/2013
07/2013
08/2013
09/2013
10/2013
11/2013
2012
2013
220
215
Source: Bord Bia based on EU Commission
The210
depreciation in the Real has left Brazilian cattle prices
running at less than 60% of the EU average while US prices
205at just under 90% of the EU average. Little change is
stand
expected for 2014.
-1.6
Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14
Q4'14
Trends in cattle numbers by age, Sept 1st 2013
(change in head vs. 2012)
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
Males
Females
Sheep supplies at export meat plants (‘000 head)
3500
-100000
1500
0-6mths
6-12mths 12-18mths 18-24mths 24-30mths 30-36mths
1000
Source: Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine
500
-1.5
-1.6
Factors
affecting 2014 Irish finished cattle supplies
-2.0
•Increase of 115,000 in calf registrations in 2012.
Distribution of Irish beef export volumes (%)
•Drop
-2.5 of 40,000 in live exports in 2012.
•Increased retention of breeding heifers on dairy farms.
-3.0
0
Distribution
Irish pigmeat
export
(%) 2012 2013(e
2005of2006
2007 2008
2009volumes
2010 2011
50
2012
2013 (e)
45
-3.5
60
Year
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
-3.3
Qtr 4
2012
2013 (e)
50
40
30
44
37
20
195
20
190
10
52
53
45.5
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1.5
0
United Kingdom
22
Continental EU
60
20
40
5
0
1.5
Int. Markets
80
33
10
46.5
140
100
44
15
30
160
120
35
25
40
200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Q3'13
-80000
2.1
following
Some
recovery is likely in average
0.7
-0.5
the decline
recorded in 2013. These developments would leave
0
US
NZ
Chinese
Japanese Brazilian Australian Sterling
export
standing
at more
rise
-1.0 availability
-0.9than 500,000
Dollar
Real
Dollar tonnes,
Dollar aYuan
Yen
of around 7%.
Apr 2008 - Jan 2013
Q1'13 Q2'13
0 3000
4.8
carcase
weights
-0.3
3.3
Jan 2005 - Apr 2008
Trends in cattle numbers by age, Sept 1st 2013
200
(change
in head vs. 2012)
Taking these figures into account, supplies at export plants
15
-20000
are expected to increase by around 100,000 or 6% in 2014.
2500
2013
-40000
However, all age categories under 18 months recorded lower
2014 (p)
0.510 in September
numbers
14.4 2013, which points
0.3 to some tightening in
-60000 2000
supplies in the latter part of 11
2014.
0.0 5
300
20
600
20
5
10
Irish
cattle prices remained ahead of EU levels in 2013 averaging
Trends
in Ireland’s
Competitiveness
(%)
around
106%
of EU R3 Harmonised
male cattle prices.
It is hoped
the
1.5 that1.5
0 beef sector will be well placed to maintain this momentum
Irish
Continental EU
Int. Markets
United Kingdom
in 2014, despite some further increase in supplies. The recent
relief20in feed costs is to be welcomed although fertiliser and
energy
costs
to putprices,
pressure
on producers.
Irish vs.
EU continue
male cattle
2012
to date (c/kg dw)
800
33
15
Irish finished cattle supplies are
53
expected
to rise by 6% in 2014
20
150
1000
44
25
United Kingdom
Continental EU
Int. Markets
20
65,000 tonnes
Pigmeat
A slight drop in EU production and a solid international demand
helped offset any weakness in consumer demand during 2013.
This is reflected in pig prices, which for the year are estimated to
have increased by around 3% to average �1.75/kg.
+3% €525m
This combined with some easing in feed prices as the year
progressed led to a better market environment for Irish pigmeat.
Pigmeat
exports
When this decline is combined with a drop of 5% in live exports
to Northern Ireland at around 575,000 head, it leaves total pig
output down by almost 3% in 2013.
Irish pigmeat production is estimated to have fallen by around
2% to stand at 235,000 tonnes.
Stable retail sales
Retail sales of pigmeat on the Irish market were reasonably
stable during 2013 with Kantar data for the 52 weeks ending
10th November showing little change overall. However, varying
trends were evident within the category. Bacon sales were
around 3% higher, sausages were maintained while pork was
under some pressure.
With little change reported in the foodservice sector, it is
estimated that total pigmeat consumption in Ireland was
unchanged at 142,000 tonnes.
Export value increases further
Key pigmeat export market developments in 2013
•Lower EU pigmeat production.
•Good international demand for pigmeat.
•Tighter availability leading to lower EU exports.
•Irish pigmeat production down by around 2%.
•EU pig prices up by 3%, Irish prices almost 6% higher.
Data from the CSO shows a rise of 3% in pigmeat imports for
the first nine months of 2013. A continuation of this trend would
leave imports at 84,000 tonnes for the year. This combined with
steady consumption resulted in the volume of pigmeat available
to export falling by 2% to 177,000 tonnes cwe.
Lower pig supplies in Ireland
When combined with average export prices rising by almost 6%
it left the value of Irish pigmeat exports some 3% higher
in 2013 at �525m.
Export meat plant pig supplies in Ireland are estimated to have
fallen by just over 2% in 2013 to reach 2.84 million head.
Pigmeat Exports (€m)
This slow down reflects a response to higher feed prices by
producers and the impact of Porcine Reproductive & Respiratory
Syndrome (PRRS) on some herds. However the CSO June pig
survey showed a recovery of 1% in the breeding herd, which
may give some indication of increased supplies for 2014.
2012
€m
2013 (e)
€m
2013/2012
% +/-
510
525
+3
Irish pigmeat exports to International
Markets grew by 7% to 65,000 tonnes
Markets for Irish pigmeat
The growth in Irish pigmeat exports to International markets
evident over recent years was less prevalent in 2013 as reduced
trade to Japan partly offset strong growth elsewhere.
Irish pigmeat performed well in a competitive United Kingdom
market throughout 2013 with shipments largely maintained at
77,000 tonnes. Higher average prices led to the value of trade
rising by 6% to reach �320m.
Exports to Continental EU markets continued to lose share
to markets outside of Europe. For the year, exports to the
Continent fell by more than 10% to around 35,000 tonnes and
were worth an estimated �80m. Stronger trade to Germany
and France were more than offset by lower to shipments to
most other markets.
Exports of Irish pigmeat to International markets performed
strongly for much of the year led by higher sales to Russia
and solid shipments to China and the United States. Russia
was driven by a strong demand for legs, the absence of US
and Canadian pork and the increased number of Irish plants
approved. However, some of this growth was offset by reduced
trade to Japan reflecting a slow belly demand.
The Australian market reopened for uncooked pigmeat product
in March. Up to the end of September, around 1,000 tonnes
had been exported.
For the year exports of Irish pigmeat to markets outside of the
EU grew by 7% to 65,000 tonnes. This trade was valued at an
estimated �125m.
21
-60000
10
25%
Global pigmeat trade has expanded
byprices,
25% over
years
Irish vs. EU male cattle
2012the
to past
datefive
(c/kg
dw)
500 50
2012
2013 (e)
400
40
100000
35
80000
350 30
300
44
Russia
United
States
Brazil
China
EU
0
Canada
EU GIP pigmeat production in 2014 (% change on
previous year)
25
20
33
200
22
10
France
United
Kingdom
Rest of EU
Int. Marke
Sheep supplies at export meat plants (‘000 head)
-40000
United Kingdom
11
-3.0 200
-60000
Int. Markets
Continental EU
-80000
Source: Bord Bia estimates
4.8
3.3
Outlook for 2014
2.1
0.7
-100000
-3.5
relatively tight EU supplies, ongoing steady global demand and
EU
GIPeasing
pigmeat
production
in 2014
(% change
onhow
some
in feed
prices. However,
it remains
to be seen
previous
year)
pig prices evolve following the downward pressure evident in
the latter months of 2013.
Despite EU breeding sow numbers falling by around 2% in
the June 2013 livestock survey, increased productivity levels50
combined with some lift in gilt numbers is expected to result in
45
2013
a marginal rise in EU-28 net production in 2014.
0.0
2012
-0.3 2013 (e)
-0.5
52
-1.6
-1.6
-2.053
-2.5
22
-3.0
35
30
25
-0.9
-1.0
-1.5
2014 (p)
40
0.3
20
-1.5
15
10
46.5
45.5
1500
4
-0.9
3
35
25
500
20
35
34
15
1
Year
40
30
0
2
Q1'13 Q2'13
201
45
1000
-1.5
Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14
0
-3.3
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
Qtr 4
105 2006 2.6
2005
2007
5
1
0
World
Russia
EU
Q3'13
2008 2009 2010
10
2
1.7
China
United
States
Brazil
2011
9
Other
Asia
1
MENA
China
EU
2012 2013(e)
9
1 Nth.
America
Oth
Canada
Source: Bord Bia based on USDA/GIRA
Demand levels are expected to be helped by some further
recovery
in the
eurozoneateconomy
consumption
across
the
Sheep
supplies
exportwith
meat
plants (‘000
head)
EU forecast to rise by almost 1%.
Some recovery in Irish pig supplies
Irish finished pig supplies are likely to show a slight recovery in
2014 as the Irish
effectsbreeding
of PRRS recede
more favourable
feed
flockand
vs lamb
supplies at
export mea
Agri
price forecasts,
2014
(USc/bushel)
costscommodity
prevail.plants,
This combined
with
a
1%
increase
in
breeding
(‘000 head)
pig numbers to 147,500 head in the June 2013 livestock survey
should help boost supplies by around 2%.
•Modest increase in EU output with better demand •Global
3000 output to grow by more than 1% on back of lower 3500
Breeding flock (Previous
Soybeans
1600
feed costs and ongoing demand.
Throughput
Wheat
(CBOT)
2012
This will lead to some recovery in export volumes
to Lamb
around
•Slight
2500 pickup in Irish supplies.
Corn
3000
2013 (e)
180,000 tonnes.
1400
2000 growth in global pigmeat output
Further
2500 such as Vietnam and Thailand are expected
Emerging markets
to
open
to
Irish
pigmeat exports in 2014. Import demand across
Global pork production is expected to grow by over 1% in 2014
1500
2000 markets is expected to rise in 2014, with the
key international
on the
back of expected lower feed costs and growing demand.
1000 strongest growth forecast in South Korea and China, 6% and
44
44
1000
3% higher, 1500
respectively. Across other key markets like Russia and
This will be largely driven by higher output in China,
Russia and
37
the United States. Global trade has expanded by about 25% 800 Japan, low single digit growth in import demand is expected.
33expanding import
1000
in just500
five years due to rising incomes and
demand particularly East Asia and North America. Marginally 600
20
22
0
500
higher import
demand is forecast for 2014.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(e)
1200
400
5
0
5
-0.3
-1.6
2500
2000
Males
Females
3500
Factors
affecting
2014export
pigmeat
prospects
Distribution
of Irish
pigmeat
volumes
(%)
bution of Irish beef export volumes (%)
0.5
0.3
Source:
EU Commission
0-6mths
6-12mths
12-18mths 18-24mths 24-30mths 30-36mths
Australianfor
Sterling
US sectorNZin 2014
Chinese
panese Brazilian
The prospects
the pigmeat
will be helped by
Dollar
Real
Dollar
Dollar
Yuan
Yen
)
Wheat
(CBOT)
2013
6
Corn2014 (p)
-2.5 400
01/2012
02/2012
03/2012
04/2012
05/2012
06/2012
07/2012
08/2012
09/2012
10/2012
11/2012
12/2012
01/2013
02/2013
03/2013
04/2013
05/2013
06/2013
07/2013
08/2013
09/2013
10/2013
11/2013
0
14.4
40000
37
20000
-20000
5
150
0.51400
-0.5
1000
-1.0
800
-1.5
-1.6
600
-2.0
0
20
1600
0.0
1200
60000
44
26.3 250 15
13
World
3500 Distribution of New Zealand sheepmeat exports (%
Agri
commodity
price
forecasts,
2014 (USc/bushel)
Trends in cattle
numbers
by age,
Sept
1st 2013
Distribution of Irish pigmeat export volumes (%)(change in head vs. 2012)
Global
pigmeat
production
trends,
2014
(% change
Distribution of Irish pigmeat volumes (%)
EU GIP pigmeat production in 2014
Global
pigmeat
production
trends,
2014
3000
Ireland (R3 Steers)
on
2013)
(% change on previous year)
(% change on
50 2013)
201
Soybeans
EU (R3 Y Bulls)
uro exchange rate developments, January to
45
mber450
(% Change on previous year)
e)
0
-80000
1.5
1.5
0
-100000 United Kingdom
Continental EU
Int. Markets
0-6mths 6-12mths 12-18mths 18-24mths 24-30mths 30-36mths
0
United Kingdom
Continental EU
Int. Markets
200
Q1'13 Q2'13
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Q3'13 Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14
2013(e)2
0
-80000
World
Russia
-100000
0-6mths
United
States
6-12mths 12-18mths 18-24mths 24-30mths 30-36mths
Better feed of
prices
Distribution
Irishanticipated
pigmeat export volumes (%)
The latest USDA monthly cereals report (December) raised its
forecast for world wheat stocks for the 2013/14 marketing
50
2012
season by another 4.3 million tonnes to 182.8 million tonnes,
2013 (e)
45
citing the Canadian crop upgrade, and higher hopes for
Australia’s harvest.
40
35
Chinese imports of wheat are expected to treble in 2013/14 to
30
8.5 million
tonnes
compared to the previous marketing season.
44
44
Brazil
China
1
1
EU
Canada
Soybeans
Wheat (CBOT)
Corn
1400
1200
15
0
Rabobank’s latest agri commodity outlook released in December
2013 suggests that 2014 is shaping up as a relatively balanced
EU GIP pigmeat production in 2014 (% change on
year for most agri commodities. Global stock levels were
previous
year)
replenished
to varying degrees in 2013 and with further output
increases likely in the 2013/2014 season, Rabobank expect some
further softening in grain and oilseed prices.
Rabobank agri commodity price forecasts suggest the following
trends in price levels:
2013
0.5
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
-3.0
0
Q1'13 Q2'13
2010
2013 (e)
Q3'13
Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14
Q4'14
35
34
Sheepmeat
Exports
10
EU
China
Other
Asia
9
MENA
9
3
Nth.
America
Other
Source: Rabobank, 2013
Sheep supplies at export meat plants (‘000 head)
3500
3000
2500
1000
-0.9
-1.0
200
5
1500
-0.3
-0.5
Int. Markets
Given the competitive market environment, Irish sheepmeat
50
exports performed
reasonably well in 2013. Stronger Irish
disposals 45
were met with sluggish consumer demand and
competition from higher UK and New Zealand supplies. The
40
strengthening of the euro relative to sterling helped boost the
35
competitiveness
of UK lamb in key markets.
10
2000
0.0
Rest of EU
Distribution of New Zealand sheepmeat exports (%)
Sheepmeat
15
2014 (p)
0.3
United
Kingdom
Global maize output is expected to rise by 12%
in 2014, which will help balance feed costs
20
400
Global
maize
and soya bean
output for
United
Kingdom
Continental
EU the 13/14
Int.season
Marketsis
expected to be 12% and 6% higher at 964 million tonnes and
285 million tonnes respectively. This reflects improved weather
conditions and increased planting which has helped boost yields.
France
6
25
800
600
• Nov 12 £204/tonne 22
20
10
• Nov 13 £163/tonne down 20% on 12 levels
•
5 Nov 14 £156/tonne down 4% on 13 levels
3
30
1000
25
37the
This recovery in global wheat production is illustrated by
20
Liffe UK wheat futures market with all prices reported
lower.
33
0
12%
Agri commodity price forecasts, 2014 (USc/bushel)
Agri commodity price forecasts, 2014 (USc/bushel)
1600
5
+4% €220m
)
1
-60000
Key sheepmeat export market developments in 2013
•Further slight fall in EU production.
•NZ shipments up by 10% in first eight months.
•Irish supplies 7% higher but carcase weights down by 4%.
•Substantial rise in live sheep exports.
Irish breeding flock vs lamb supplies at export meat
plants, (‘000 head)
EU Sheepmeat output contracted by almost 1% to 756,000
tonnes in 2013. This decline in production was driven by lower
Breedinghigher
flock (Previous Dec)
output 3500
in France, Spain, Italy and Germany. However,
Lambsome
Throughput
supplies in both the UK (up 4%) and Ireland offset
of
3000
this decline.
2500 is still being hampered by poor consumer
Consumption
confidence and lack lustre demand across retail and foodservice
2000
given the
price of lamb relative to other meats. Figures from the
EU Commission suggest a further slight fall in EU consumption
in 2014.1500
500
-1.6
-1.6
-1.5
1000
Lower EU
availability was partly offset by increased imports
from New Zealand, particularly in the first half of the year.
0
500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(e) Figures for the first eight months of 2013 show a rise of 10%
0
2006
2007 2008
2009 2010
2011
2012
23
2013(e)2014(p
5%
1600
Total sheepmeat exports increased
by over 5% to reach 44,000Soybeans
tonnes
50
Wheat (CBOT)
Corn
1400
Distribution of poultry exports (% by value)
Distribution of New Zealand sheepmeat exports (%)
Agri commodity price forecasts, 2014 (USc/bushel)
2010
2013 (e)
45
80
40
in imports of NZ lamb at 125,000 tonnes although they are still
1200
expected to only fill 72% of their annual quota in 2013.
70
Market35demand developments
30 consumption remained under pressure with retail
Domestic
sales of25
lamb falling by 6% in the 52 week period ending 10
November 2013. For the year, total sheepmeat consumption is
20 at 15,200
35 tonnes.
34
estimated
1000
Higher Irish sheepmeat output
800
For the third consecutive year Irish sheep throughput grew,
reaching 2.61 million head, a rise of 7%. This increase was
15
600
largely driven by a 26% lift in hogget supplies. Throughput of
20
20
90
Irish sheep processors continue to strengthen their positioning
60
85
within the Belgian market with 83
shipments estimated to have
grown by 50% to
503,000 tonnes.
40
Emerging International
markets continued to grow with Hong
Kong being the 30
primary destination of Irish sheep meat exports
with shipments doubling to almost 1,200 tonnes cwe. Tunisia
20
was also an important
destination for sheep exports in 2013
3 importing over 400
tonnes.
10
6
400
Given the increase in production and slower domestic demand,
10
total sheepmeat exports increased by over 5% to reach 44,000
10
9
9
tonnes. 5
Against a backdrop of reduced fodder supplies and a difficult
200
lambing
year got
off to
a slowQ2'14
start. Q3'14
The poor
spring
Q1'13season
Q2'13the
Q3'13
Q4'13
Q1'14
Q4'14
negatively affected carcase weights with lamb weights back by
0.8kg or around 4%.
0
0 small relative to other markets, Switzerland
EU easing
China
Other
MENA
Nth.the Other Albeit volumes are
United Kingdom
Continental EU
Int. Markets
With lamb prices
marginally
to around
�4.60/kg,
Asia
America
is delivering a strong value return with exports reaching 650
total value of Irish sheepmeat exports is estimated to
tonnes in the first nine months of 2013.
have increased by over 4% in 2013 to reach �220m.
new season lambs was marginally higher.
Sheepmeat Exports (€m)
These developments led to sheepmeat production rising by
around 3% to stand just over 55,000 tonnes.
9
11
6
Securing access to Canada in 2013 has delivered new business
while the anticipated opening up of the US will provide a
further boost.
s in cattle numbers by age, Sept 1st 2013
2012
2013 (e)
2013/2012
ge in head
vs. 2012)
Sheep
supplies at export meat plants (‘000 head) Global pigmeat production
trends, 2014
Distribution of Irish sheepmeat volumes (%)
Sheep supplies at export meat plants (‘000 head)
€m
€m(% change % +/on 2013) Irish breeding flock vs lamb supplies at export meat Distribution of Irish sheepmeat volumes (%)
plants, (‘000
212 head)
220
+4
3500
2012
6
Breakdown of Irish live cattle exports
(‘000 head)
50
2013 (e)
-6mths
3000
Males
Females
2500
5
4
2000
1500
3
1000
2
500
0
1
2005
2006 2007
2008 2009
2010
2011
Source: Bord Bia estimates
6-12mths 12-18mths 18-24mths 24-30mths 30-36mths
24
ibution of Irish pigmeat export volumes (%)
2012 2013(e)
0
3500 for Irish Sheepmeat
Markets
45
Breeding flock (Previous Dec)
Lamb Throughput
40
The domestic
market continues to account for almost 30% of
3000
total sheep output. The core export markets remain France and
35
100
30
80
the UK. However, their share of exports fell from 70% to less
2500
60% in 2013 reflecting a significant drop in trade to the UK.
2000
Exports to France were largely unchanged at 18,000 tonnes,
which was valued at around �90 million.
15005
2.6
Trade to the United Kingdom
was
2
1.7back by almost 25% to
1000
around 9,000 tonnes as increased domestic supplies and
1alternative markets elsewhere affected shipments.
1
1
500
25
20
delivered double digit export growth. Sweden is now our third
most important market destination for Irish lamb exports with
shipments around 30% higher for the year.
Agri commodity price forecasts, 2014 (USc/bushel)
43
41
70
60
15
50
10
40
5
30
0
United of Belgium,
Brazil
China
Canada
World
Russia markets
The growth
GermanyEUand Sweden
0
States
2006
2007 2008
2011 2012
continued to
outperform
other 2009
market2010
destinations
as they2013(e)2014(p)
20
20
90
France
20
10
0
Source: Bord Bia estimates
27
27
33
20
90
3
United
Kingdom
Calves
6
34
Rest of EU
39
Int. Markets
Weanlings
Stores
Distribution of New Zealand sheepmeat exports (%)
Finishe
5
00
1
1
United
Brazil EU China
World
Russia
Continental
United Kingdom
States
1
Canada
Int.EU
Markets
5
200
3
0
France Q3'13
Q1'13 Q2'13
0
UnitedQ1'14 Q2'14
Rest of Q3'14
EU
Q4'13
Kingdom
5%
EU GIP pigmeat production in 2014 (% change on
Agri
commodity price forecasts, 2014 (USc/bushel)
previous year)
Outlook for 2014
Int. Markets
Q4'14
0
0 0.5
Factors affecting 2014 sheepmeat prospects
•Further slight fall in EU sheepmeat production.
-0.3
•Slow consumer demand.
•Reduced availability of NZ and UK lamb.
•Tighter Irish sheep-0.9
supplies.
0.0
0
-0.5
0
-1.0
0
-1.5
0-2.0
2014 (p)
0.3
-1.6
Sheep
suppliesof
at New
export
meat plants
(‘000 head)
Distribution
Zealand
sheepmeat
exports (%)
Distribution of NZ sheepmeat export volumes (%)
3500
Tightly supplied EU market anticipated
Qtr 1
Qtr 2
Qtr 3
-3.3
Qtr 4
Import demand is expected to be at least maintained. In this
scenario the level of imports into the EU will play a major role in
determining price levels. Production forecasts for the 2013/14
Sheep supplies
export
plantson(‘000
head)
marketingat
year,
whichmeat
commenced
the 1st
October, suggest
a drop of 5% in NZ lamb production. This decline reflects the
severity of the widespread drought on both islands in summer/
3500
autumn 2012/13.
3000
2500
2000
1500
0
10
2006 2007 2008 2009
EU
China
9
2010 2011
Other
Asia
MENA
9
3
2012 2013(e)
Nth.
America
Other
Lower
Irish sheep
anticipated
Irish
breeding
flockoutput
vs lamb
supplies at export meat
According
to the
CSO June livestock survey 2013, the Irish
plants,
(‘000
head)
500
1000
0
500
2010
2011
2012 2013(e)
60
85
83
50
40
30
20
500
10
2006
9
6
11
6
0
EU 2013(e)2014(p)
Int. Markets
2007United
2008Kingdom
2009 2010 Continental
2011 2012
At a time when global sheepmeat demand is growing
particularly in the Middle East and China and NZ supplies are
back, global sheep prices are expected to strengthen.
1500
2008 2009
2500
2012
2013 (
Source: Bord Bia based on CSO/DAFM
Source: GTIS
1000
2006 2007
70
0
Breeding flock (Previous Dec)
Lamb Throughput
80
3000
1000
breeding flock declined by almost 1% with numbers under two
year of age down by 2.6%. This will impact on the 2014 lamb
3500
Breeding
flockis(Previous
The distribution of New Zealand lamb exports continues to
crop. Similarly, the carryover of hoggets
into 2014
likely to Dec)
be
lean towards Asia with China accounting for 34% of shipments
considerably lower than recent years. Lamb Throughput
3000
during the first 10 months of 2013, similar to the EU.
These factors are expected to combine to result in sheep
2500
disposals falling by 2% to 4% in 2014. Assuming stable
domestic consumption this would result in export availability
2000
falling by a similar percentage to 42,500 tonnes.
2005
90
3500
1500
34
15
500
10
0 5
2005
and France is expected to be 4% and 3% lower respectively.
Year
35
China
OtherApr May
MENAJun Jul
Nth. Aug Other
Jan
Feb Mar
Sep Oct Nov De
Asia
America
Distribution of poultry exports (% by value)
Irish breeding flock vs lamb supplies at export meat
Irish breeding flock vs. lamb supplies at export
plants, (‘000 head)
meat plants, (‘000 head)
2000
100020
Some further fall is anticipated in EU output for 2014 as
0-2.5
ewe flocks
in some
keyQ2'14
European
producing
Q1'13 breeding
Q2'13 Q3'13
Q4'13
Q1'14
Q3'14
Q4'14 regions
decline. By the end of 2013, the breeding ewe flock in the UK
-3.0
-3.5
2010
2013 (e)
35
2000
30
1500
25
-1.5
-1.6
170
EU
NZ lamb production is set to fall by 5% in the 2013/14 season, reflecting
the severity of the widespread drought on both islands in 2012/13
Ongoing tight EU sheep supplies and a reduced presence of
50
New Zealand lamb should help provide aSoybeans
reasonably stable
3000
Wheat (CBOT)
market for Irish sheepmeat in 2014. However, much will
45
Corn
continue to depend on consumer demand. All things considered2500
40
2013sector.
2014 should provide a solid year for the sheepmeat
0
6
0
Breakdown of Irish live cattle exports (‘000 head)
100
2012
2013 (
90
80
70
60
50
90
40
30
20
2006
2007 2008
2009 2010
2011
2012
2013(e)2014(p)
10
34
39
25
47
83%
EU monthly broiler prices (€/kg)
The UK market accounted for an estimated
83%
of poultry
exports in value terms
igmeat production trends,
2014
(% change
Distribution of Irish sheepmeat volumes (%)
50
Poultry
Distribution of Irish sheepmeat volumes (%)
The relief in feed costs as the year progressed combined with
40
stable consumer demand helped the poultry sector across
35
2012
Europe in 2013 although prices came under some
pressure as
2013 (e)
30
the year progressed.
50
45
25
40
30
25
20
20
5
2.6
43
41
d15 Russia
10
+4% €230m
35
EU monthly broiler prices (€/kg)
EU monthly broiler prices (c/kg)
45
United
States
15
2
1.7
27
Brazil
20
China
1
33
EU
1
5
0
Canada
5
3
2012
2013
6
41
195
27
27
33
15
Q2'13
10
5
0
Other
Asia
MENA
Nth.
America
Other
221
230
+4
185
175
was valued at an estimated �190m or some 83% of the total.
helped offset lower fresh and frozen volumes. For the year trade
3
180
France
United
Kingdom
Rest of EU
6
170
Exports
Continental
valueDec
Jan toFeb
Mar Apr EU
Maymarkets
Jun Julperformed
Aug Sepwell
Octin Nov
Int. Markets
terms led by France, which saw a sharp rise in exports of frozen
product. The value of exports to the region is estimated at
around �30m.
30
0
Broiler prices across Europe were almost 3% higher in 2013 at EU 20 China
Q4'13 Q1'14 Q2'14 Q3'14 Q4'14
�1.95/kg. Prices were 4% higher up to June before easing to be
10
9
9
3
10
3% lower than a year earlier by December.
China
2013/2012
% +/-
180
unchanged in 2013 as stronger exports of processed poultry
Q3'13
EU
26
2013 (e)
€m
190
170
5
34
2012
€m
The value of trade to the United Kingdom was largely
20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
EU poultry production is estimated to have increased by less
France
United
Rest of EU
Int. Markets
than 1% in 2013
with
lower
output
for
much
of
the
first
half
Kingdom
Source: EU Commission
being followed by a rise of around 3% in the third quarter. This
Distribution
of New Zealand sheepmeat exports (%)
mmodityincrease
price forecasts,
was driven 2014
entirely(USc/bushel)
by broiler production as both turkey
Modest
rise in Irish output
and duck recorded lower output levels.
Lower poultry production was recorded in Ireland in 2013.
Lower broiler output more than offset a rise in2010
duck production.
50
In terms of trade little changeSoybeans
was evident. In the case of EU
2013 (e)
Wheat (CBOT)
poultry
a drop onsheepmeat
shipments
from
Brazil more
Distribution
ofimports
New Zealand
exports
(%) than45offset Distribution of poultry exports (% by value)
Cornand China. Exports recorded
Retail sales of fresh chicken on the Irish market showed a drop
increased supplies from Thailand
40
of 3% for the 52 weeks ending 10th November 2013, reflecting
stronger trade to the Middle East and South Africa to boost
the competitive nature of the Irish retail meat sector. This2012
is
shipments by 2% to the end of September.
35
50
2010
90
despite
the
fact
that
retail
chicken
prices
continue
to
run
at
less
2013 (e)
2013
(e)
45
30
than
80 80% of the average retail meat price.
Key poultry export market developments in 2013
40
25
70
•Slight increase in EU poultry production.
For the year it is estimated that the value of Irish poultry
35
•EU imports down by 2% due to tighter Brazilian 20
35exports
34
increased by 4% to reach �230m, helped by
60
85
availability
83
30
stronger processed
poultry exports, which more than offset a
15
•Marginal growth in EU exports led by Middle East
50
drop
in
fresh/chilled
shipments.
25
& South Africa.
10
40
•Stable consumer demand across Europe.
10
9
9
3
20
35
195
185
175
0
Exports (€m)
190
200
10
Poultry
exports
27
Poultry
200
205
43
2012
2013
205
2012
2013 (e)
0
Other
Asia
United Kingdom
MENA
9
Nth.
America
11
Continental EU
Distribution of poultry exports (% by value)
Distribution of poultry exports (% by value)
6
Int. Markets
2012
2013 (e)
90
80
70
60
85
83
50
40
30
20
10
0
Other
6
Trade to international markets showed little change with
stable exports reported to South Africa and the rest of Africa.
The value of trade stood at �13m.
9
United Kingdom
Source: Bord Bia estimates
11
Continental EU
6
6
Int. Markets
1/3
Live Animals
Some further growth is anticipated in EU poultry production for
2014. Global output is expected to grow by almost 3% with all
major producers expected to grow led by China, Brazil, India,
the United States and Russia. Output will be helped by declining
costs and price competitiveness vis-à-vis other meat proteins.
Global trade will continue to be driven by Middle Eastern and
Sub-Saharan African demand.
Stronger cattle and sheep exports helped boost the value
of livestock exports in 2013. For the year the value of Irish
livestock exports increased by 11% to an estimated
�240m.
+11% €240m
Outlook for 2014
With global consumption set to rise, the prospects for EU exports
remains reasonably good with increased shipments expected to
Africa and Asia. Little change is anticipated in EU imports.
These developments suggest that EU broiler prices may show
modest growth in 2014. However, EU consumer demand and
international trade developments will be critical.
Little change is expected in Irish poultry production.
Livestock
exports
Livestock Exports (€m)
2012
€m
2013
2013/
(e) €m 2012
% +/-
217
240
+11
-Cattle
144
162
+13
-Pigs
70
71
+1
-Sheep
3
7
+125
TOTAL
Of which:
Live cattle exports increased by a
third in 2013 to reach 210,000 head
There were two principal drivers of the stronger live export
trade: namely that domestic calf prices became a lot more
competitive, followed by the resumption of live exports to Libya.
However, exports of weanlings and store cattle to many of our
traditional markets continue to be impacted by the relatively
high prices being paid for stock by domestic beef producers.
Shipments of most categories of stock have increased. Most
significantly, the number of calves exported jumped by almost
140%, while exports of weanlings and stores were slightly
ahead of the same period last year. Finished cattle exports were
10% lower.
With regard to the major calf markets, exports to Belgium
increased by 146%, followed by 114% for the Netherlands. Calf
exports to France resumed and reached almost 7,000 head.
Exports to Spain have also increased by 140%, mainly consisting
of calves. Weanling exports to Italy fell by 32%. Exports to
Northern Ireland were 13% lower.
An important feature in the livestock trade was the resumption
in exports to Libya, which accounted for almost 15,000 cattle
along with 21,000 sheep up to the end of November. Other
North African markets included Tunisia (4,000 head) and
Morocco (1,300 head).
Live cattle exports
Total live cattle exports up to mid December were a third higher
than during the same period in 2012. This recovery follows a
low point for live exports last year, when shipments reached just
160,000 head in total. Overall exports for 2013 are expected to
exceed 210,000 head, slightly below the number of live cattle
exported in 2011.
27
27%
During the second quarter of 2013, China imported
27% more dairy product than a year earlier
Breakdown of Irish live cattle exports (‘000 head)
Breakdown of Irish live cattle exports (‘000 head)
100
2012
2013 (e)
90
80
70
60
50
90
40
30
20
34
39
47
Outlook for 2014
Dairy Products & Ingredients
The outlook for live cattle exports is for a continuation of the
trend evident in 2013. As always much will depend on the
relative price of Irish cattle.
This category encompasses both primary dairy products such as
butter, cheese and milk powders and value added dairy products
and ingredients such as infant formula, casein and chocolate crumb.
Calf exports are likely to remain steady while exports to Libya
also seem set to remain strong. However, ongoing relatively
high costs allied with transport costs and the reduced availability
of credit to exporters may dampen trade somewhat.
A combination of a cold wet spring across Europe, the worst
drought in New Zealand for 75 years and production issues in
two of the main importing nations, Russia and China led to severe
global supply challenges, particularly in the first half of 2013.
The prospects for live sheep and pig exports will be largely
determined by availability and relative prices in potential markets.
China the world’s largest dairy buyer imported 27% more
product during the second quarter of 2013. For the first time in
four years, the international trade in dairy products declined in
the second quarter due to the lower global production volumes.
0
Calves
Weanlings
Stores
+15% €3.05bn
10
Finished
Source: Bord Bia estimates
In terms of destinations, the UK accounted for 30% of total
trade followed by Spain and the Netherlands at 18% and 16%
respectively. Libya accounted for 6% of trade.
Other livestock
Shipments of live pigs eased slightly in 2013 with numbers
affected by PRRS in the spring. For the year numbers were back
by around 5% to 575,000 head.
Live sheep exports remained brisk throughout the year
following the commencement of trade to Libya. For the year
exports doubled to reach an estimated 80,000 head.
Dairy &
Ingredient
Exports
As result of this tight supply situation and spike in Chinese
demand, international dairy prices reached record levels in April
with Fonterra auction WMP prices reaching $6,283 USD/tonne
compared to $2,766 in April 2012. Prices eased from this peak
for around two months but started to firm again thereafter
reflecting the ongoing tight supply situation.
Average prices for 2013, to week 48. (compared to same period
in 2012)
•
•
•
•
28
WMP; Oceania
SMP; Oceania Cheese; English cheddar
Butter; Netherlands bulk
US$ 4,665/tonne (+33%)
US$ 4,368/tonne (+34%)
� 3,285/tonne (+11%)
� 3,895/tonne (+31%)
-30
-35
-40
Jan
2.1%
New Zealand milk supplies finished the 2012/13 season down
1%. However, a severe drought late in the season led to a
drop of 25% in production for the March to May period. Some
recovery has been evident over recent months due to a return of
favourable weather conditions. Figures for the first four months
of their 2013/14 season (June – September) show a rise of 7%.
Monthly trend in NZ milk supplies (%
Changetrend
on same
last year)
Monthly
in NZmonth
milk supplies
(% Change on same month last year)
9.2
4.3
-2%
40
7.4
n/c
-6.9
-16.8 -34.5
-10
Jul
Aug
Sep
For the 10 months to October milk deliveries
in Ireland were running 2.1% higher
10
5
0
-5
-10
-4% 2012
+3%*
+1%
*Europe30
deliveries for July to September
Sources: USDA,
25 DCANZ, Dairy Co, Bord Bia
-5.9
-5
2013-15
(e)
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Source: CSO
The strong global dairy prices combined with increased
Distribution
of
Dairy products
& Ingredients
availability as the
year progressed
helped
boost the
value of (€m)
Distribution
of
Amenity
Exports
exports
(%)2013. For the year, it is estimated that
exports during
the value
37
35
of Irish dairy and ingredient exports for the year jumped
40
20
37 by around 15% to exceed �3 billion for the first time.
Milk deliveries
in Ireland were significantly impacted by poor
2012
26 some 11%
weather15
during the spring. April deliveries were
Cut (e)
Foliage,
2013
25 weather, excellent grass
behind the same month in 2012. Good
€3m
Dairy
Products & Ingredients Exports (€m)
40
growth 10
rates and good ground conditions have resulted in a
Christmas trees,
surge in Irish milk deliveries from June with volumes for July 35
€5.5m
5
2012
2013 (e)
2013/2012
October 9% above 2012.
€m
€m
% +/30
-5.1
-27.7
-15
-20
-25
0
-30
-35
-40
EU
35
10
0
-7%
United States
15
5
Australia
45
+7%
Jun
15
DistributionJan
of to
prepared
June 2013 food
July exports
to Oct 2013(%)
-13%
May
20
Closer to home, EU milk deliveries have recovered from a slow
spring with volumes for the 3rd quarter some 3% higher.
NZ
Apr
(% Change on same month last year)
Despite some lower production volumes during the spring
2013, US production has been running 1 – 2% higher on a
monthly basis.
Tight global dairy supplies
Mar
Milk deliveries in Ireland (% Change on
Milk deliveries in Ireland
same
month last year)
In Australia production has been affected by record heat waves
and severe flooding in some of the main dairy producing
regions. Milk supplies for the first half of 2013 were running
7% behind. Supplies for the 2013/14 season are also lower with
cumulative figures for July to October down by 4%.
Key drivers of Dairy export performance in 2013
•Tighter global supplies due to NZ drought and high
feed costs.
•Strong Chinese demand for imported powders.
•High global product prices for most of year.
•Little build up of stocks.
Feb
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Source: DCANZ
Sep
UnitedtoKingdom
Continental
Int. Markets
For the 10 months
October deliveries
were EU
running 2.1%
25
higher according to the CSO. A further increase is expected in
the final months of 2013 to leave deliveries for the year more
20
than 2.5% ahead of a year earlier.
Distribution of beverage exports (%)
2,640
36
3,045
37
+15
38
34
Daffod
(flower a
bulbs), €1
29
15
26
10
Milk deliveries in Ireland (% Change on
same month last year)
50
45
40
2012 5
2013 (e)
0
Nursery stock, €4m
United Kingdom
Continental EU
Int. Markets
29
Distribution of beverage exports (%)
4%
The global demand for dairy products going into 2014
remains
strong as(%
indicated
by the
Dairy Trade
Milk deliveries
in Ireland
Change
on Dec 3rd Global 50
auction
with
winning
bids
increasing
by
an
average
same month last year)
45 of 4%
2012
2013 (e)
Nursery stock, €4m
40
20
35
Export markets for Irish dairy products
Main product
trends
30
The United Kingdom remains a key market for Irish dairy
exports
with trade growing by over 15% to around �1.1 billion.
10
This accounts for 37% of total dairy exports. The strongest
performances
were evident in butter and cheese.
5
The strongest
performing
32 product categories were butter,
25
46
31
cheese, infant formula,
milk & cream, WMP and whey.
15
Exports
to Continental EU markets grew by more than a
0
quarter to account for 29% of total dairy exports. Trade was
valued
at �875 million. The best growth was recorded in exports
-5
to Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands and Italy, while there
was
-10 some marginal decline to Eastern Europe.
The
-15 value of exports to International Markets did not rise in
line with
EU with
a marginal
increase
reachOct
Jan theFeb
Maronly
Apr
May Jun
Jul evident
Aug to
Sep
just over �1 billion. Significant increase in the value of exports to
China, Hong Kong, Malaysia and Vietnam offset lower trade to
the US, Saudi Arabia and South Africa. The share of dairy exports
Distribution
ofoutside
Dairyofproducts
& Ingredients
destined for markets
Europe now stands
at 34%.
exports (%)
Distribution of Dairy products & Ingredients
exports (%)
2012
2013 (e)
40
30
25
36
37
34
26
10
5
United Kingdom
Source: Bord Bia estimates
30
The value
2013 due to a 10%
15 of butter exports grew in23
increase in volumes and higher average prices. The value of
10
butter exports
to Continental Europe grew strongly boosted by
significant
5 volume increases to Belgium, France and Germany.
Continental EU
Int. Markets
China will continue to be a major driving force of global markets
due to a combination of domestic milk production issues and
demand for imported milk powders.
The global demand for dairy products heading into 2014 is
strong as indicated by the Dec 3rd Global Dairy Trade auction
Cheese accounts
forKingdom
almost a quarter
of dairy
United
Continental
EUexports reaching
Int. Markets
with winning bids increasing by an average of 4%. Many
�725 million. The value of exports increased by 7%, driven
countries that were forced to the sidelines by Chinese buyers
by a 3% rise in volume and higher unit prices. Cheese exports
throughout 2013 are returning to the market to re-build stocks.
performed well to the UK, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Russia
and some
Middle Eastern
Distribution
ofmarkets.
seafood exports (%)
The prospects for Irish dairy exports in 2014 remain broadly
positive with global demand likely to help clear any increase in
Infant formula exports increased due to a significant increase
output to keep prices well ahead of historical averages. Global
in the value of sales to China, Hong Kong and Vietnam
stock levels and the relative strength of the euro will largely
2012
offsetting
60 declines to some Middle Eastern markets. The overall
price prospects. Some further growth in output is
2013 determine
(e)
volume of infant formula sales was relatively static.
likely as producers gear up for the removal of quotas in 2015.
0
50
Outlook
for 2014
40
10
38
29
15
0
45
23
Dairy Products & Ingredients export drivers for 2014
•Recovery in output anticipated among key producers.
30
•Strong import demand to persist.
34
31
•Low stock levels heading into 2014
54
20 growth in EU output.
•Limited
54
35
20
20
There is potential for a significant production response in the
US given the lower feed costs with the USDA forecasting an
increase of over 1% for the 2013/14 season.
15
12 milk production was 400,000 to
By late 2013 global monthly
500,000 tonnes higher compared to a year previous, reflecting
0 rebound in dairy producing conditions in many
a significant
United Kingdom
Other EU
Int. Markets
countries.
In New Zealand milk production is forecast to increase by 5%
for the 2013/14 season. Australian production continues to
struggle despite lower costs and better feed availability as farm
debt and herd condition may hamper growth. An increase of
1% – 3% is forecast for the current year, although levels will
remain below that of two seasons ago.
40%
Prepared Foods
Key drivers of Prepared Foods exports in 2013
•Strong focus on innovation and product development.
•Broader range of markets and channels being served.
•Ongoing high input costs and difficulty in securing price increases.
•Intense competitive pressure in most categories.
This category includes a wide range of primary products, which
have been further processed and includes ready to eat foods,
confectionery and bakery products.
+15% €1.65bn
The market environment for prepared food exports showed
varied trends in 2013 with dairy based fat filled milk powders
increasing strongly on the back of strong global demand
while some traditional categories faced a strongly competitive
marketplace. This pressure came through higher input costs in
many cases, negative currency movements, difficulty in securing
higher prices and competitor activity.
Prepared
Foods
Exports
Overall, exports of products covered under the prepared
foods category increased by 15% to an estimated �1.65
billion. If value added meats and poultry are included, exports
were in excess of �2 billion.
The strongest performing categories were fat filled milk
powders, which accounted for 80% of the export growth in the
category, cooked meats, pizza, sauces, bakery and to a lesser
extent confectionery. These helped to largely offset a slower
trade in the frozen ready meal category in particular.
Monthly trend in NZ milk supplies (%
Prepared Foods Exports (€m)
Change on same month last year)
15
However, the ongoing focus by the sector on securing new 10
markets and customers through innovation and new product 5
launches continues to pay dividends.
0
-5
The range of products covered by the prepared food category
continues to expand as manufacturers seek to serve a wider -10
range of products and markets. This highlights the ability of the
-15
sector to develop products that meet the rapidly evolving needs
-20
of consumers and leaves the sector well placed to meet the ever
-25
changing needs of consumers in key markets.
-30
-35
-40
2013 (e)
€m
2013/2012
% +/-
1,424
1,645
+15
4.3
7.4
Export
markets for Prepared Foods
-5.9
-6.9
Exports to Continental EU markets performed well with
the region now accounting for more than a quarter of total
exports. The strongest performing category was fat filled milk
powders, which grew by more than 50%. Other categories to
show positive growth included confectionery, cooked meats,
pizzas, snacks and sauces. Trade for the year is estimated to
have increased by around 20% to reach �420 million. Key
growth markets included the Netherlands, France, Germany
and Scandinavia.
Exports to International markets for products covered under
prepared foods recorded further strong growth in 2013 driven
by the strength of fat filled milk powder exports and increased
sales of pizzas, confectionery and bakery products. Key
destinations included Africa, Russia and the Middle East. The
region accounted for 37% of exports in 2013. Trade was valued
at almost �600m,of
a fifth
above 2012
levels.exports (%)
Distribution
prepared
food
Distribution of prepared food exports (%)
2012
2013 (e)
45
2012
€m
9.2
The United Kingdom accounted for just
under 40% of prepared foods exports in 2013
-5.1
The United Kingdom accounted for just under 40% of
-16.8 -34.5 -27.7
prepared foods exports in 2013. Trade during the year continued
to be impacted by a highly competitive retail sector, slower
demand for frozen ready meals and as the year progressed
the relative strength of the euro against sterling. However, the
foodservice sector showed stronger demand for a number of
sectors while a focus on NPD also helped exporters establish
new business or bring existing business back into growth.
40
35
30
25
20
40
37
35
37
26
15
25
10
5
0
United Kingdom
Continental EU
Int. Markets
Source: Bord Bia estimates
For the
yearMar
it is estimated
that the
value
of exports
to
the
Feb
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
UK was around 6% higher at �620m. Stronger exports were
recorded in bakery, sauces and cooked meats in particular.
Jan
Milk deliveries in Ireland (% Change on
Distribution of beverage exports (%)
50
31
2012
2013 (e)
The Travel Retail sector continues to record growth in most major
markets with wine and spirits sales approaching $8 billion
Main product trends
Exports of chocolate confectionery remained mixed with
a number of smaller manufacturers reporting increased sales
driven by new markets and further innovation. Trade to the UK
was more difficult although foodservice sales are reported to
have increased. Overall, chocolate confectionery exports are
estimated to have increased by around 4% in 2013.
The market diversification evident over recent years continued
with the United States, Australia and the Middle East reporting
good growth.
Sugar confectionery exports showed modest growth in 2013
as slower consumer spending continued to impact on demand.
Improved export performances were recorded to parts of
Continental Europe, the Middle East and the United States.
Bakery products and snacks put in a good performance as a
strong focus on NPD to develop products that meet consumer
needs in relation to variety and health helped sales. A good trade
was reported for artisanal and speciality breads while cakes were
helped by the growth in demand for affordable indulgences.
Exports to the UK were helped through further growth in the instore bakery segment while niche opportunities in Australia, Asia
and the Middle East showed strong increases.
One of the major exports to the UK is frozen ready meals.
The frozen sector went through an extremely challenging year
as sales dropped significantly following the equine DNA issue,
which led to less retail space for the category. Some pickup in
sales was reported during the latter months although Kantar
data for year ending November 2013 showed sales of frozen
meals down by almost 11% in value terms in Britain. This led to
Irish exports for the year falling largely in line with the market.
The pizza market remains highly competitive in the UK.
However, the Irish sector has benefited from the emergence
of new customers and new markets outside of the UK, which
led to overall exports growing by more than 10%. Strongest
growth was reported in the Netherlands, Scandinavia and to a
lesser extent the Middle East.
32
Exports of cooked meats and meat ingredients put in another
good performance in 2013 as the sector benefits from a strong
focus on innovation and extends sales across European QSR’s.
Exports for the year are reported to have increased by strong
single digits.
Outlook for 2014
Prepared Food export drivers for 2014
•Ability to identify & develop new market opportunities.
•Focus on innovative product solutions.
•Economic developments and impact on consumer sentiment.
•Input costs and potential to pass on any price increases.
A continued focus on innovation, new markets and channels is
expected to leave Irish exporters in a good position to deliver
further export growth in 2014.
Demand levels for fat filled milk powders seem set to remain
strong across key markets in Africa and Asia, which will boost
overall trade. Some further recovery is also anticipated in frozen
ready meals.
Other categories such as cooked meats, pizza, bakery and
confectionery all have the potential to deliver higher exports in 2014.
However, as always, there are a number of factors outside the
direct control of exporters that could significantly impact on
export performance. These include developments in input costs,
trends in consumer sentiment and the potential to deliver higher
food prices. To date, it has been difficult to secure price increases
from the marketplace in countries such as the UK. How this plays
out in 2014 will have a significant impact on exports.
However, most exporters anticipate increased sales in 2014
driven by new product lines and new customers and markets.
Beverages
Further growth was evident in the global beverages market in
2013 as a rise in travel retail sales and a positive sales impact
of trends such as premiumisation and enjoyment helped boost
the value of the sector. This helped offset ongoing subdued
demand in many developed markets arising from the sluggish
economic environment.
-1% €1.25bn
$8bn
Beverage
Exports
Increasingly the global market is being driven by growth in
demand across emerging markets in Asia, Middle East, South
America and Africa.
The Irish beverage sector put in a solid performance in 2013 as
ongoing growth in whiskey combined with stronger exports of
non-alcoholic beverages helped to offset reduced trade in cider,
beer and cream liqueurs.
An ongoing competitive market environment in the UK
combined with slower demand from some traditional European
markets offset impressive export growth to emerging markets.
Key drivers of 2013 Beverage export performance
•Strong emerging market demand.
•Economic conditions impact on European demand levels.
•Some relief on input costs.
•Whiskey and non-alcoholic beverages leading export performance.
45%
Distribution of prepared food exports
(%)
Monthly trend in NZ milk supplies (%
Change
same
month last
year) plays an important
Newon
product
development
and innovation
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
role and act as a growth driver for the beverages industry.
This has been evident in the premiumisation trend over
the last few years. This has led producers to focus on high
quality ingredients, product authenticity and provenance,
sustainability and craft positioning in order to9.2
avail of
the
7.4
opportunities it presents.
4.3
-5.9
-5.1
-6.9 in the global alcoholic
The most important consumer trends
-16.8
-27.7
drinks market
are -34.5
changing
life stages, indulgence, better value
for money, personal space & time, and changing age structures.
Another major driver for the industry is advancement in
distribution channels such as online sales, outlets in airports,
etc. The Travel Retail sector continues to record growth in most
major markets across the globe. Overall, the market is estimated
to be worth more almost US$50 billion and of that, wines and
spirits is approaching $8 billion. The strongest growth continues
Jan
Apr other
MayBRIC
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
to beFeb
seen inMar
Asia and
economies.
The weakening in grain prices during 2013 helped reduce some cost
pressure although many other inputs costs remain high by historical
standards. Similarly the strengthening of the euro against both the
US dollar and sterling impacted on the sector’s competitiveness.
Milk deliveries in Ireland (% Change on
Overall, beverage exports are estimated to have increased
same declined
monthmarginally
last year)
in 2013 to stand at �1.25bn.
20
2012
€m
2013 (e)
€m
1,257
2013/2012
% +/-
1,250
-1
5
-5
-10
-15
5
Shipments
to International markets were negatively affected
0
by slower
exports
of cream Continental
liqueurs and
United
United
Kingdom
EUcider to the
Int. Markets
States. Reduced trade was reported to markets such as Canada,
Australia and Russia, which more than offset increased exports
to South Africa and the Middle East. Exports for 2013 are
estimated to have declined by around 2% to stand at �560m.
Distribution of beverage exports (%)
Distribution of beverage exports (%)
2012
2013 (e)
50
45
35
10
0
30
Exports
to Continental EU markets showed mixed trends with
trade
overall
back marginally on 2012 levels. In terms of product
25
categories whiskey
37put in another strong performance
35 recording
40 growth which helped offset declines in cider, beer and
20
double
digit
37
cream liqueurs. France, Denmark and Belgium
recorded increased
26
15
trade while Spain, Italy and the25Netherlands fell back reflecting
lower
cider and cream liqueur exports. Trade to the region was
10
valued at an estimated �290m or 23% of total exports.
40
Beverage Exports (€m)
15
2012
year
45 exports to the United Kingdom are estimated to have
2013 (e)
been largely unchanged at just under �400m. This leaves the
40
UK still as the largest single market for Irish beverage exports,
accounting
for around 31% of the total.
35
31
32
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
45
23
23
10
Despite the ongoing competitive pressures evident overall
exports to the United Kingdom performed reasonably well in
2013. Lower beer, cream liqueur and cider exports were offset
by increased shipment of whiskey and mineral waters. For the
Jan
46
20
15
Export markets for Beverages
Aug
Sep
Oct
Main product trends
Whiskey exports led the way for beverage exports again in 2013,
recording double digit growth. Exports were helped by further
strong growth in the United States while other markets such as
Europe, Russia, Asia and Australia also recorded strong growth.
Distribution of Amenity Exports (€m)
The market environment for cream liqueurs showed some
further pick up in 2012 as modest volume and value growth
was recorded. However, a stock build up in late 2012 and
production changes saw the value of exports declineCut
in Foliage,
2013.
€3m
As a result reduced export values were reported to most
key
markets,Christmas
especiallytrees,
the UK.
€5.5m
Beer exports showed a modest decline in 2013 as a difficult
UK market dampened export values. Outside of the UK sales to
emerging markets such as the beverage blending agent markets
Daffodils
in Africa performed strongest.
(flower and
bulbs), €1.25m
Exports of Irish cider faced a challenging year with weak
volumes in the UK in the early part of the year while
distributional changes in the US and a slower trade to Australia
and Spain affected export values. However, exports are
reported to have picked up in the second half
of 2013.
Nursery stock, €4m
In terms of non-alcoholic beverages, exports of mineral water to
the UK were the strongest performer. New innovations and the
emergence of new customers and markets have helped sales.
However, exports of juices remained more challenging.
Outlook for 2014
30
25
International markets accounted for 45% of
beverage exports in 2013 with trade valued at €560m
Beverage export drivers for 2014
•Innovation to meet consumer demand.
•Ability of sector to focus on emerging markets.
•Strong global demand for whiskey.
•UK and European demand levels.
5
0
United Kingdom
Continental EU
Int. Markets
Source: Bord Bia estimates
Distribution of seafood exports (%)
33
European markets remain the main outlet for seafood with
the top five markets accounting for 55% of the total
The outlook for Irish beverage exports in 2014 continues to be
broadly positive helped by an anticipated further rise in whiskey
sales, the ongoing development of emerging markets and an
anticipated return to growth for some key categories. The ability
of the sector to continue to develop new markets and innovative
product solutions for developed markets will be critical.
In terms of challenges facing the sector, ongoing uncertainty
surrounding input prices, currency fluctuations and weak
consumer sentiment in some key markets are likely to shape the
market environment faced by exporters.
In terms of non-alcoholic beverages, the key will be to continue
the consolidation of business with existing customers and
target new segments and channels through innovative product
offerings. This will involve the further development of markets
outside of the UK.
The market position of the Irish industry and the resilience of
the global beverage sector bode well for Irish exports in 2014.
Seafood
Seafood Exports (€m)
Seafood exports recorded a slight decline in 2013. However this
follows growth of almost 65% in the value of exports over the
2009 – 2012 period.
-3% €520m
55%
Seafood
Exports
The main factor behind this reduction was production and raw
material limitations as unit prices were around 7% higher in the
10 months to the end of October. This highlights the ongoing
strength of demand.
The pelagic sector and emerging markets performed well with
Cameroon, Russia, Korea, China and Hong Kong all showing
high double digit growth. The core European markets were
most difficult due to a mixture of limited supply for traditional
species such as salmon and whitefish but also sluggish markets
due to a poor economic climate and weak consumption.
Key drivers of Seafood export performance in 2013
•Tighter volumes of key species offsetting higher unit prices.
•Strong emerging market demand.
•Challenging trade to some core European markets.
Overall for the year, the value of seafood exports is
estimated to have eased by 3% to �520m.
34
2012
€m
2013 (e)
€m
2013/2012
% +/-
534
520
-3
Export markets for seafood
European markets remain the main outlet for Irish seafood
exports with the top five markets accounting for more than
55% of total exports. However, this compares to 60% in 2012.
Irish seafood exporters continued to focus on developing new
business in emerging markets to offset some price resistance in
core European markets.
The share of exports destined for the United Kingdom eased
back to 12% in 2013 reflecting a lack of supply of traditional
species such as salmon and whitefish. Irish whitefish exports
to this market have also been impacted by cheaper UK imports
from other competing markets. The value of trade stood at an
estimated €60 million down about a fifth on corresponding
2012 levels.
Prawn exports are significantly down as our main export of
prawns to the UK is “prawn tails” for UK processors for the UK
retail/pub scampi market. In 2013, Irish volumes were down
25% to 30% mainly due to monthly quota restrictions limiting
the boats plus prices were also lower.
Trade to Continental EU markets was mixed as some core
markets such as Spain, Germany and France reported lower
exports. However, strong performances were recorded to
Italy, the Netherlands and Denmark due mainly to good trade
for prawns, mussels and pelagic species. The Netherlands has
become an important market for Irish mussels due to lack of
local Dutch production and also because of Dutch expertise
in packing and marketing. Overall for the year, exports to
Continental European markets were back marginally at around
€290 million or 53% of the total.
40
35
30
25
31
32
45
20
23
10
Seafood exports to International markets grew by around
5
7% in 2013 to reach an estimated €175 million. The strongest
0
emerging
markets with high double digit growth have been
UnitedRussia,
Kingdom
Continental
EU Kong.Int.
Markets
Cameroon,
Korea, China
and Hong
Good
performance for pelagic species in these countries partly
explains strong growth but also a wider range of species into
Korea, China and Hong Kong where crab, razors and oysters are
Distribution
ofsignificant
seafood
exports
beginning to make
market
entry. (%)
Distribution of seafood exports (%)
2012
2013 (e)
60
50
Japan, Malaysia and the UAE all recorded very strong double
digit growth in the value of exports albeit from a low base.
The French market continues to dominate oyster exports with a
value growth of 74% in 2013. The Italian market also performed
well. Growers are holding onto oysters longer until they reach
market size with a decrease in trading of half-grown oysters
which explains the volume as well as value increase of 18% and
53% respectively.
Crab exports performed strongly in 2013 with an increase in
value of around 14% against a background of stable volumes.
A strong performance to China was recorded with an increase
of 168% in value terms. The French, Italian and UK markets also
performed well for this species.
Asian markets are gaining preference over traditional markets
for certain shellfish species as they are offering higher returns.
However, organic seafood is still selling better in traditional
European markets where the label is recognised.
40
30
54
20
0
the value of crab exports increased by 14% in 2013
23
15
10
14%
46
31
34
54
15
12
United Kingdom
Other EU
Int. Markets
Source: Bord Bia estimates
Main product trends
One of the main factors behind the lower seafood volumes in
2013 was the limited volumes of salmon. Although demand for
organic salmon rose significantly, Irish producers are not able to
meet current demand levels due to limited production. Salmon
output in 2013 was down an estimated 22% in volume terms
compared to 2012 which had an impact on salmon exports in all
its formats including smoked.
Oyster exports performed well with strong demand both in
traditional markets and emerging markets such as Hong Kong.
The total value of pelagic exports fell slightly in 2013 mainly as
a result of the reduction in blue whiting available for processing
and export. Total blue whiting export volumes reduced from
63,000 tonnes in 2012 to 45,000 tonnes in 2013 resulting in
a drop in export values from €37m to €20.6m. The ban on
imports of frozen fish into Nigeria for a large part of 2013 also
affected the volume of trade to West Africa as Nigeria is the
most important market for frozen fish in this region.
Outlook for 2014
Seafood export drivers for 2014
•Product availability across key species.
•Developments among key competitors.
•Strong emerging market demand to remain.
•Mixed potential across EU countries.
Export performance in 2014 will depend very much on product
supply. This is expected to remain limited for aquaculture
species and quota restrictions on certain wild species, notably
for prawns and whitefish, will hamper volume growth.
Unit values are already high for salmon and oysters with little
potential for further price growth. Mussels, crab and prawns
may have potential for unit price growth depending on macro
economic factors such as consumer confidence in Europe and
production potential of competing producers such as Chile,
Holland, France, UK and producers of tropical prawns.
Whitefish performance will be impacted by the recently
announced quota allocation for 2014 as well as the Barents Sea
cod stock, which if as abundant as in 2013, will lead to another
difficult whitefish market in 2014.
Overall, any increase in seafood exports in 2014 will be driven
by price increases. Demand levels seem set to remain strong for
most species in emerging markets and a number of European
markets. On balance, there is potential for modest growth in
export values.
The Irish seafood industry is expected to maintain its focus
on South East Asia in 2014 where demand continues to grow
for imported, quality assured seafood. Access to raw material
is anticipated to be an on-going issue in 2014 as shortages
continue for key species whilst at the same time, demand is
growing. Companies will continue to focus on NPD and cost
reduction in an effort to grow margins. There has been a
reduction in overall demand in certain EU territories due to
overall macroeconomic conditions, notably in Iberia. NPD will
be a key driver as many markets are moving towards more
consumer friendly seafood offerings.
There will also be continued opportunities in traditional markets
for responsibly sourced, quality assured seafood particularly in
the retail segment and Ireland will be well placed to capitalise
on this. Continued price pressure is anticipated in southern
Europe due to poor consumer confidence resulting in weak sales
and price pressure.
35
It is estimated that mushroom exports increased by 4% in
2013 on the back of strong demand in the UK market
Stability and certainty will be a key performance driver within
the pelagic sector. Potential large scale volumes being supplied
by Russian Far East fleet, particularly for herring will have an
impact on market prices. Other factors include the on-going
‘mackerel war’ between the EU, Norway, the Faroes and Iceland
allowing large quantities of cheaper mackerel to flood the
market. It will be critical that a resolution is found to this issue in
the early part of 2014.
Political stability in the main pelagic markets will also be
important as will the ban on imports of frozen fish into Nigeria
which hopefully will be lifted from the beginning of 2014. If it
is then there will be a surge in demand due to the fact that this
market is currently empty of supplies. The low price of fishmeal
at present coupled with the increase in quota volume of Blue
Whiting in 2014 will present an opportunity for increased
volume of production in 2014.
In addition, boarfish remains a significant opportunity that is as
of yet unrealised. Perhaps with lower fishmeal prices in 2014,
the industry will have an opportunity to offer this new species
at a more acceptable price point to new customers particularly
in the Chinese market where Bord Bia is already working with
a number of trade customers to educate them about this new
species and to raise awareness with customers in this market in
an effort to drive demand. The increase in the quota to 88,000
tonnes is an opportunity that Bord Bia in tandem with the
industry will try to capitalise on in 2014.
Edible Horticulture & Cereals
Stronger mushroom exports were offset by lower grain prices as
the year progressed to put some pressure on the value of edible
horticulture and cereal exports in 2013.
-1% €225m
4%
There are two main categories of growth in the retail market,
namely Brown/Portobello mushrooms which grew by 20% in
volume terms, and button mushrooms, which grew by 7%. The
bulk of mushroom sales take place in button mushrooms, which
have a 60% share of the retail market.
Edible
Horticulture &
Cereals exports
The most significant event in 2013 was the decline of the value
mushroom category, which fell by 20% in volume terms. The
Value category had been growing for several years up to 2013,
and had begun to erode producer margins, as very little second
grade mushrooms are actually produced.
Key drivers of Horticulture & Cereal export
performance in 2013
•Value and volume growth in mushroom exports to the UK.
•Stronger British retail mushroom market.
•Sharp fall in value mushroom sales.
•Lower cereal prices but better volumes.
Lower cereal volumes were reported for much of the year,
reflecting increased domestic demand due to the poor weather
evident in the first half of 2013. However, some pick up was
evident over the autumn months following the good harvest.
Mushroom exports performed strongly during the year, recording
both value and volume growth to leave the value of edible
horticulture and cereals exports marginally lower at �225m.
Edible Horticulture & Cereals Exports (€m)
36
It is estimated that mushroom exports increased by 4% in 2013
on the back of strong demand in the UK market. The UK retail
market has shown good growth, with a 3% increase in value,
and a 2% rise in volume.
2012
€m
2013 (e)
€m
2013/2012
% +/-
227
225
-1
The strengthening of the euro against sterling put some
pressure on trade as the year progressed but was not a major
factor for the year as a whole.
The third year of a three year EU supported mushroom
campaign continued in 2013, and helped to keep sales strong in
summer, traditionally a slow season for mushroom, and as well
as growing sales at all times of the year. The completed ‘More
to Mushrooms’ promotions campaign produced a cumulative
increase in sales of 28,000 tonnes over the three years of the
campaign. An application for funding for a follow on campaign,
also for three years was successful and activity commenced in
November 2013.
The UK market is currently the only large scale export market
for Irish mushrooms, although trials in the French market have
been taking place. Continental Europe is experiencing some
mushroom shortages, which is beneficial to Irish exporters to
the UK market.
€13.75m
Exports of amenity horticulture crops increased
by €2m to reach around €13.75 million in 2013
Distribution of prepared food exports (%)
45
40
35
30
Outlook for 2014
Horticulture & Cereal export drivers for 2014
•EU sponsored promotional programme in the UK.
•Consumer reaction to higher retail prices.
•Currency developments.
25
20
15
10
5
0
2012
2013 (e)
37
35
A40
slowing of mushroom sales in the UK has been reported
37
towards the end of 2013. This26
may be partly due to modest
retail price increases but
25 sales have also been impacted by the
mild start to winter. Mushroom sales perform better during cold
weather. The new three year EU cofunded promotion campaign
will continue throughout 2014 and will help to boost sales.
weather during the critical spring sales period. Some orders
were cancelled as garden centres failed to move stock.
However consumer demand in the important UK market is
recovering in alignment with an improved economic outlook
and despite exchange rate variability and high transport
costs associated with specialized logistics, stronger sales are
expected from 2014 onwards.
Distribution of Amenity Exports (€m)
Distribution of Amenity Exports (€m)
Cut Foliage,
€3m
Christmas trees,
€5.5m
The exchange
sterling toEUthe euro has
a large impact on
United
Kingdom rate of
Continental
Int. Markets
Daffodils
(flower and
bulbs), €1.25m
exporters. The UK economy has been forecast to grow at prerecession rates in 2014, which in itself is likely to be positive for
mushrooms sales, but the other benefit of a growing economy
may well be a strengthening pound which would benefit
mushroomof
exporters.
Distribution
beverage exports (%)
Amenity Exports
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Exports of amenity horticulture crops were valued2012
at approx
(e) over
�13.75 million in 2013 which is an increase of �22013
million
2012. An excellent harvest and sales period for daffodil bulbs
helped to maximize returns this year with strong sales to new
customers in the USA and Eastern Europe.
The Christmas Tree Growers Association estimated that 250,000
of the 650,000 trees harvested were exported in 2013 with an
estimated32export value of �5.5 million. 46
31
45
Cut foliage sales rose to �3 million
during the year as increased
23
production capacity in23southern counties started to impact on
volumes available for sale.
2013 was a challenging year for the nursery stock sector (trees
and shrubs) as the fine summer weather came too late for
United
Continental
EU and unfavourable
Int. Markets gardening
most Kingdom
growers who suffered
cold
Nursery stock, €4m
Source: Bord Bia estimates
Most nursery stock sales were achieved in the UK. As in previous
years small quantities of young garden plants (plugs and liners)
were sold further afield where the higher value to volume ratio
supported transport costs. The development of new plant
varieties through micro propagation continues to generate
additional export income through the licensing of intellectual
property to foreign growers and the demand for novel plant
introductions bought as both young and finished plants
The amenity Export Development Programme continued in 2013
and both daffodil bulb growers and nursery stock producers
participated in mentoring and sales support.
37
Distribution of seafood exports (%)
notes
38
notes
39
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