120°W
80°W
60°W
Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) Risk 2014
50°N
30°N
100°W
50°N
Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire
EAB Risk 2014
30°N
Low
Moderate
Moderate High
High
Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) Risk 2013
EAB risk is a function of EAB detection likelihood, detection
uncertainty, and potential introduction locations. Potential
introduction locations include campgrounds,rest areas, and
other locations identified by state cooperators. Introduction sites
were given a high risk value and then combined with the 2014 EAB
detection likelihood composite model. Risk values are classified into:
Low, Moderate, Moderate High, and High classes.
100°W
0 50 100
200
300
400
500
Miles
Albers Equal Area Conic Projection
Map produced by FHTET, IL
Fort Collins, CO on 11-26-2013
File: EAB_Risk_2014.mxd
Project: EAB_2013
80°W
Emerald Ash Borer Risk Assessment 2014 Summary
Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire
November 26, 2013
The Risk Assessment 2014 map for the Emerald Ash Borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis, was produced for the Contiguous 48 U.S. (CONUS) at a
1 square kilometer (1 km2) resolution by the U.S. Forest Service, Forest Health Protection, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET) in
collaboration with Animal and Plant Health Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine (APHIS PPQ) staff members. The intended use is to develop a
risk based sample design for EAB that prioritizes detection and management activities in areas with the highest risk. The Risk Assessment was
produced by combining the EAB Detection Likelihood and Uncertainty 2002 to 2013 positives model with the EAB Detection Likelihood and
Uncertainty 2013 positives models (Downing et al. 2013). Detection Likelihood models were combined by taking the maximum value between the two
models at each 1 km cell (Table 1). Potential introduction sites, including campgrounds, rest areas, and other sites identified by state cooperators, were
given a high risk rating. The interim surface was masked using a Fraxinus species range map (Withrow 2010) to develop the final EAB Risk
Assessment product. For display purposes and ease of interpretation risk values were partitioned into four classes of risk (Table 2).
Table 1: Inputs used in A. planipennis Risk Assessment 2014
Inputs
Description and Source
Detection
Detection likelihood surface developed using MaxEnt statistical technique for modeling species distributions
Likelihood 2002 to (Downing 2012). Incorporates all known EAB positive locations reported by APHIS and state cooperators from
2013
2002 to 2013. The 2002 to 2013 detection likelihood model puts more emphasis on previously known EAB
infested areas.
Detection
Likelihood 2013
Detection
Uncertainty 2002
to 2013
Detection
Uncertainty 2013
Campgrounds
U.S. Rest Areas
High Risk
Introduction Sites
Detection likelihood surface developed using MaxEnt statistical technique for modeling species distributions
(Downing 2013). Incorporates all known EAB positive locations reported by APHIS and state cooperators for only
the 2013field season. The 2013 detection likelihood model puts more emphasis on the frontier of the EAB
expanding range.
Model uncertainty quantifies the variability of the 2002 to 2013 detection likelihood model runs by calculating the
standard deviation of the detection likelihood values on a cell by cell basis.
Model uncertainty quantifies the variability of the 2013 detection likelihood model runs by calculating the standard
deviation of the detection likelihood values on a cell by cell basis.
Compiled from Federal campgrounds (USDA APHIS PPQ 2009), U.S. MapData Landmark Points (ESRI 2010), a
proprietary campground database acquired from Salesgenie (2010). Additional campground locations were
received from state cooperators.
Rest Areas point locations were compiled from points of interest across the U.S. (POI Factory 2012
http://www.poi-factory.com/node/14656).
High risk introduction sites identified in IPHIS and by other state cooperators where merged with the campground
and rest area dataset to create a single high risk introduction site database.
Downing, M. C., I. I. F. Leinwand, P. H. Chaloux, J. R. Withrow, and F. J. Sapio. 2013. Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) “Agrilus
planipennis Fairmaire Risk Assessment” U.S. Forest Service Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET) Forest Health
Protection USDA Forest Service, http://www.fs.fed.us/foresthealth/technology/invasives_agrilusplanipennis_riskmaps.shtml
Withrow, J. 2010. Production of Urban Host Layers. Deliverable document prepared for USDA Forest Service, Forest Health Technology Enterprise
Team (FHTET), Task Order No: AG-7604-D-09-0542. WAO No: FHTET-10-Pest-Host.
Table 2: Risk Assessment classes
Risk Value
0 to 0.05
0.05 to 0.25
0.25 to 0.50
0.50 to 1
Risk Class
Low
Moderate
Moderate
High
High
Contractor Support
Ian Leinwand
John Withrow
Point of Contact
Marla C. Downing
Forest Health Technology Enterprise
Team (FHTET), Forest Health
Protection, USDA Forest Service
2150 Centre’ Ave., Bldg A, Suite 331
Fort Collins, CO 80526-8121
Phone: 970-295-5843
mdowning@fs.fed.us