Game: The walk of life. Instructions: 1. Divide into 4 groups at one end of the room. The length of the room represents this century. The start wall represents today and the end wall represents the year 2100. Position chairs or signs to mark each 5 or 10 years. 2. You are going to be asked to make some choices about your lifestyle. The decisions you make will have a real impact on the world. To reflect the real world, it is the overall decisions of the group that are imposed, not the desires of one individual. 3. You have to make a decision as a group. Anyone can argue in favour or against any decision. The decisions you make will have an impact on the future of the planet, of your children and their children. Try to imagine this is real life – it could be! 4. Like the real world, some of our future is unpredictable and so will be left to the roll of the dice 5. Add up your scores – Answer 1 = 1 point, 2 = 2 points, etc. Dice roll 1 = 1 point, 2 = 2 points, etc. YEAR 2012 2015 Choice Waste You choose to reduce, reuse or recycle all waste You will recycle if your local authority provides facilities near to your home & office You will try to buy fewer disposable items and create less waste. You want the right to use and dispose of as much plastics, food, metal, glass, etc as you want. Impact None Chile mines exhausted, 1000s lose jobs. West African mines exploited, mass food insecurity. West and Central Africa mines exhausted – mass migration to Europe. Travel You live close to work and walk or cycle there every day. You take public transport to work. You live over 10 miles from work and share the car with 2-3 other people. You live over 10 miles from the office and drive to work by yourself Impact None Floods in London - $30 Billion damage. Properties declared uninsurable. Floods in Bangladesh, displacing 7 million people. Drought & food crisis in the Sahel, 100,000 people die. Roll the dice (Potential tipping point) 1. No change Holidays You always “holiday” at home, through enjoying local amenities with local family and friends. You holiday within your country, using your car. You travel long distance by public transport to another country to see family or friends. You fly to other countries to holiday at least twice a year Impact Temperature rise projections reduce to 2 degrees Temperature rise projections reduce to 4 degrees Temperature rise projections stay at 6 degrees Permafrost in Siberia rapidly melts causing the loss of gas 2. No change 3. No change 4. No change 5. Floods displace 200 thousand people in your country 6. Canada mountain forests burn and 100,000s of hectares lost. supplies to Europe and millions of tonnes of methane enter the atmosphere. 2020 2025 Shopping You re-use, repair and recycle everything, swap possessions with neighbours and live much more simply. You set up a “tool share” group amongst your neighbours and don’t buy anything you can borrow. You replace your mobile phone, computer, television and car when they break or look quite out of date. Your family must have the newest and the best of everything Impact Global food prices reduce Food prices increase 30% Global food prices double. All nations stop exporting and scramble to try to become self sufficient. Roll the dice (Potential tipping point) 1. No impact Energy You generate your own electricity and use it very efficiently You purchase renewable electricity. You have installed a Smart meter to help you run your home efficiently You unplug appliances and switch off lights when they are not being used. You never think about switching off televisions. Lights, heating or cooling. Impact Government declares 50% renewable energy target by 2030. Fuel prices increase 30% Fuel prices double. 5 oil refineries are bombed across northern nations Water You install rainwater harvesting and self composting toilets at home. You re-use bathing water for the whole family then the garden. You take 3 minute showers, a water butt for the garden and only use your washing machine when it is full. You use the taps to water your garden, wash your car, shower twice a day. Impact Your government agrees to bco-fund renewable energy powered reverse osmosis water treatment plants across North Africa. National water rationing introduced. China builds a fresh water pipeline from Africa and declares it has bought the rights to several countries entire water resources. Multiple international waterwars start Roll the dice (Potential tipping 1. No impact 2. No impact 2. No impact 3. No impact 3. No impact 4. Australian bush fires engulf the city of Perth and kill 30,000 people. 4. Summer sea ice disappears from the Arctic. 5. China removes all financial subsidies from and stops all exports to the USA 5. Huge droughts & famine in the horn of Africa, 6. Global flu pandemic kills 100M people 6. Huge fires in the Amazon, destroying 25% point) 2030 2035 killing 2M people. Food You change to producing most of your own food. You give up eating meat, buy organic, and grow some of your own food. You reduce to eating organic meat 3 times a week. You continue eating meat for most meals. Impact Your country sets targets to reduce food miles and become food self sufficient. Global foot and mouth crisis, 12 month ban on all sales and consumption of beef and lamb. 100,000s cattle slaughtered. Government commandeers all private gardens for growing national crops. Global flu pandemic international travel prohibited for 3 weeks. Supermarkets empty. Global food rationing. Roll the dice (Potential tipping point) 1. No impact Housing Move to multi generational multi occupancy homes You vote for your government to allow 10M refugees into your country. 1 family of 4 people moves into your house. You vote for your government to fund new housing in an adjacent country, stop all construction here and 2 relatives move into your house. You support an increase in single person households Impacts Global emissions reduced by 50%. We’re on track to stay below 2 degrees warming. On track for 2-4 degree temperature rise. Your country goes to war with the adjacent country to prevent immigration. Global temperature rise of 2 degrees happens early. On track for 6-8 degree rise. Roll the dice (Potential tipping point) 1. No impact Work / Livelihoods You agree to share your job 50/50 with someone else and take a substantial wage cut 2. No impact 2. World bee populations plummet – global crop pollination at risk. 3. The world’s last elephant dies in captivity. 3. Bird flu pandemic leads to global ban on chicken consumption. You agree to a national 4 day working week and salary cut. 4. Massive land slides in Rio de Janerio, kill 3000 people. 4. Malaria declared the world’s number one killer. 5. Flooding in Bangladesh permanently displaces 20 Million people. Bangladesh declares war with India after the UN refuse pleas for help. 5. The United States of South America declare war on the USA You agree to a 30% pension cut and 10% salary cut. 6. Asian monsoons go into reverse bringing storms and droughts in the “wrong seasons” causing food insecurity for 1Bn people 6. Global fishing reaches the end of the line. 300 Million people lose their livelihoods. You demand the right to pensions, reaching your full employment potential, and and use the spare time to grow your own food and help with community projects 2040 2045 keeping the huge disparity between the rich and poor in your country. Impacts An international agreement is introduced to measure development in terms of “well -being” instead of GDP. Government welfare services are cut 50%, reducing health and education provisions. All state secondary schools introduce tuition fees. Global banking crisis causes the collapse of the dollar and the euro. Chinese currency becomes the currency of choice. The global insurance industry declares itself bankrupt and unable to provide any insurance Immigration You vote yes for the government to allow 100M refugees into your country. Two families totalling 8 people move into your house. You vote for your government to allow 10M refugees into your country. You build and pay for a new home for a family on your land. You vote for your government to negotiate low scale immigration and build new housing for incomers. You demand your government keeps refugees out at all costs, even though they have nowhere else to go. Impacts You make lots of new friends and enjoy living in community. You make new friends but lose your garden. National housing shortages. National “build for food” programmes 2 countries declare war on your country and fight to remove your national boundary. Roll the dice (Potential tipping point) 1. No impact Healthcare You help set up self funding local community hospitals with doctors available to consult over remote video connections. You agree to the government removing all state benefits (health care, benefits, pensions) apart from lifesaving medical care. You vote for a national ban on You demand government all non-essential surgery. provision of state benefits including health care for minor and cosmetic surgery. Impact National crime rates fall 50% Low cost voluntary charitable community clinics established. National riots and votes of no confidence in 3 national leaders in 3 years. Roll the dice (Potential 1. No impact 2. No impact 2. No impact 3. Sea level rise submerges the islands of Tuvalu, Kiribati and the Maldives. Island states declare “war on the G20” 3. Global 0.5M sea level rise 4. Mass retribution from developing countries and countries most impacted by climate disasters – “terrorist” acts across all polluter countries. 4. Global 1 metre sea level rise displacing 5. The newly formed United States of Africa declares war on Europe 6. West Antarctic ice sheet melts, causing global sea level rise of 7m and the death of 100M people, destruction of 9 major cities and displacement of 1.5Bn people. National health service privatised. 20% increase in national mortality rate. 5. Global 2 metre sea level rise, 6. Global 7 metre sea level rise, tipping point) 2050 2060 displacing 100M people 400M people. displacing 1Bn people displacing 3 Bn people. Natural resources You vote for international treaties to establish zero waste, no growth sustainable economies. You vote for international treaties to halve deforestation, water and mineral uses. Your family has to agree to substantial travel and consumption restrictions. You vote for your government to ration individual purchasing and consumption. You demand that your government does everything necessary to ensure they get the natural resources from other countries to fund your desired lifestyle. Impact Emissions reduce, energy, technology and food prices fall. Large numbers of small sustainable companies established. The 5 biggest companies in your country collapse. National industrial collapse and huge unemployment Roll the dice (Potential tipping point) 1. No impact Conflict You vote for your government to sign an international treaty removing all international borders and private property rights and support construction of new interracial sustainable communities, incorporating your house. You vote for your country to merge with 3 adjacent countries in an attempt to achieve food security, sustainable population and combined defence capability. You vote for your country to establish treaties to share armies, water resources, food supplies with 2 adjacent countries. You vote for your government to do everything it can to protect it’s nationhood, independence and individuals independence and rights. This means war over water, fuel & food. Impact Mass global migration. Temporary mass food insecurity and water stress, with the emergence of a new global multi-racial community. Break up of the UN, WTO, IMF, World Bank, collapse of all international treaties and conventions. Middle East cuts off supply of fossil fuels to the rest of the world whilst becoming the world’s top emitter. Your country is at war with 8 other nations who are also at war with each other. Roll the dice (Potential tipping point) 1. No impact 2. No impact 2. No impact 3. Hurricane sweeps through the Caribbean and back to Miami causing devastation. 3. No impact 4. Coral reefs and shell fish stocks collapse due to increase in ocean carbonic acid 4. Disease wipes out the majority of conifer species globally 5. Global ban on fish consumption. 5. Collapse of world livestock 6. The world’s oceans fish supplies are declared exhausted. 300M people lose their livelihoods. 6. Global plague killing 700M people. 2070 Roll the dice (Potential tipping point) 1. No impact 2. No impact 3. The last tiger is buried in captivity. 4. Global aviation industry is forcibly grounded. 5. Africa declared uninhabitable. 6. The global gulf stream switches off throwing the earth into a thousand year ice age. 2080 Roll the dice (Potential tipping point) 1. No impact 2. No impact 3. Global epidemic decimates amphibians to 5% of populations. 4. South Asia unable to grow food. 100s of millions of refugees head for other countries. 5. Scientists declare 50% of all global species are extinct. 6. Humans in conflict fight over land rights in the arctic & Antarctic. 2090 Roll the dice (Potential tipping point) 1. No impact 2. No impact 3. Global pandemic causes huge rise in infant mortality. 4. Global geoengineering project fails devastating the ozone layer. Massive cancer increase 5. USA declared bankrupt. 6. Southern nation launches nuclear attack on 2 northern nations. 2100 Roll the dice (Potential tipping point) 1. No impact 2. Malaria spreads across northern Europe and N America. 3. China, India, Brazil, Russia, the world’s 4 largest economies demand USA & Europe compensate southern nations. 4. China, India, Pakistan, Russia and Japan all declare war on each other. 5. The world’s last glacier melts. 6. Jet Stream switches off, causing global temperatures to rise more rapidly than projections. Score of <50 51-80 81-110 >110 <1 degree increase 2 degree increase 4 degree increase 6 degree increase The world is relatively safe: 30% of all species are extinct. Global food prices have risen 50% But the world has transitioned to a low carbon economy, and is becoming more equitable for all. Huge food security and water stress issues in Africa, South Asia, south Europe, much of south America. Most of Africa declared uninhabitable. Huge food insecurity across south Asia. Mass migration to Eurasia. Conflict. 30% of all known species lost. Global population peaked in 2050 at 9Billion, huge CC, disasters & conflict dropped population to <150 million people. 90% of all species are extinct. Rule of law is gone. Society, economy, technology, food production devastated. The atmosphere is acrid. Will humans survive? Outcome: