Identifying a Low-Order Beat-to-Beat Model of Arterial Baroreflex Action by Varun R. Chirravuri S.B. EECS 2009 MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY AUG 2 4 2010 L12RARiES Submitted to the Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Engineering in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology May, 2010 ( v\m- t ARCHIVES C2010 Massachusetts Institute of Technology All rights reserved. Author Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science May 21, 2010 Certified by George C. Vergthse, Professor of Electrical Engineering M.I.T. Thesis Supervisor Accepted by_ Dr. Christopher J. Terman \y Chairman, Department Committee on Graduate Theses Identifying a Low-Order Beat-to-Beat Model of Arterial Baroreflex Action by Varun Chirravuri Submitted to the Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science May 21, 2010 In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Engineering in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science ABSTRACT The arterial baroreflex is a fast-acting control mechanism that the body relies on to regulate blood pressure. Previous efforts to quantitatively model the baroreflex have relied primarily on non-parametric characterization of the transfer function from blood pressure to heart rate (Berger et al.,1989, Akselrod et al., 1981,1985). Of the parametric models proposed, most focus on matching empirical transfer functions with continuous-time models (Berger et al., 1991). Use of these models is often restricted to simulation, and consequently not focused on prediction. We develop a beat-to-beat, one-pole model for the baroreflex that can parsimoniously capture both the empirical frequencydomain and time-domain characteristics of the baroreflex. Further, we develop a robust identification method for on-line estimation of our model parameters from clinical data. We conclude by presenting preliminary results of our model and estimation method applied to patients undergoing drug-induced autonomic blockade. Thesis Supervisor: George Verghese Title: Professor of Electrical Engineering MIT Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Acknowledgements I would like to acknowledge a few individuals who have been instrumental in the success of this thesis. These individuals have made this M.Eng project a formative, and eye-opening experience for me. First, I must acknowledge (soon to be Dr.) Faisal Kashif for showing me the ropes, so to speak. His willingness to meet and discuss the direction of this research helped me overcome countless obstacles, and become a better researcher and engineer. Thanks are also due to Dr. Thomas Heldt for continuously refocusing the project on its ultimate purpose, clinical monitoring, no matter how hard I tried to ignore that fact. I am also deeply indebted to Professor George Verghese, for his help in designing the core model for this research, and providing timely and insightful guidance at every step of the way-both in research and in life. And finally, I thank Jerry Wang for his continued interest in my work, and for being willing to listen and lend his brain power whenever I needed it. I cannot conclude these acknowledgements without thanking my family. Credit is due to my parents for encouraging me to pursue this degree, listening to my complaints along the way, and giving me hot meals and a bed to sleep in when the need arose. Support for this work has come from the National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering of the National Institutes of Health, under grant R01EB001659-6. 4 Contents 7 1 Introduction 1.1 Goals of this Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 1.2 Prospective Look at this Thesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 13 .. ... 1.3 Contributions of this Thesis.............. 2 The Arterial Baroreflex 2.1 O verview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 Cardiovascular Control Physiology 2.2.1 Anatomy and Function of the Cardiovascular System 2.2.2 Autonomic Nervous System Control of the Heart . . . . . . . . . . .. 2.2.3 The Human Baroreflex . . . . . 2.2.4 Pharmacological Intervention and the Baroreflex . . . 2.3 Prior W ork . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.1 Spectral Analysis of Heart Rate Variability 2.3.2 Modeling of Heart Rate Transfer Function 3 Modeling the Baroreflex 3.1 Modeling Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 Time Series Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.1 Moving Average (MA) Models . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.2 Autoregressive (AR) Models . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.3 ARX/ARMA Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 Derivation of Baroreflex Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 Time-Domain Behavior of our Baroreflex Model . . . . . . . . 3.4.1 Parasympathetic Impulse Response 3.4.2 Sympathetic Impulse Response . . . . . . . . . . 3.4.3 Total Model Impulse Response . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 Frequency Domain Behavior of the ARX Baroreflex Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 15 16 17 20 21 25 . . . . . . . . . . 35 35 36 37 37 38 38 42 43 43 46 CONTENTS 3.5.1 3.5.2 3.5.3 Parasympathetic Transfer Function... . . . . . .. 49 Sympathetic Transfer Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Total Model Transfer Function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 4 Data and Their Analysis 4.1 Autonomic Blockade Data . . . . . 4.1.1 Acquisition . . . . . . . . . 4.1.2 Preprocessing . . . . . . . . 4.1.3 Storage . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 Data Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.1 Frequency-Domain Analysis 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Estimation of the One-Pole Model Coefficients 5.1 Optimality Criteria for Estimation..... . . . . . . . . . 5.1.1 [2 cost function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.2 L1 cost function . . .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.3 E, cost function . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 The One-Pole Model of the Baroreflex as a Regression . . . . 5.3 Regression on Standing Control Patients . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 Motivation for and Setup of the Windowed LMMSE . . . . . 5.5 Windowed Least Squares Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5.1 Numerical Stability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6 Regularization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6.1 Numerical Conditioning.. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 5.6.2 Statistical Motivation for Regularization . . . . . . . 5.7 Further Consideration for On-line Estimation Algorithm . . 5.7.1 Sliding Window Regression for Improved Time-Domain 'Resolution'.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.8 Spectral Estimation: A Brief Discussion... . . . . . . . .. 5.9 Final Thoughts on Estimation....... . . . . . . . . . .. 6 Preliminary Results 6.1 Effects of Regularization on Estimates 6.1.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 60 60 61 62 62 63 73 74 75 76 77 78 80 82 86 88 89 91 93 98 . 98 99 101 103 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 Regularization and PSR Across All Patient Classes . . 105 Estimate Time-Series....... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 Examination of Predicted Transfer Function . . . . . . . . . . 110 Concluding Remarks............ . . . . . . . . . .. 112 7 CONTENTS 7 Conclusion 7.1 A Retrospective on the Thesis 7.2 Topics for Future Work . . . . 7.2.1 M odeling . . . . . . . 7.2.2 Testing . . . . . . . . . 7.3 Concluding Remarks... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A Convex Formulation of Optimization Problems A.1 Norms, P-Norms, and Convexity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. A.1.1 Convexity....... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . A.1.2 Vector Norms A.1.3 Convexity of the Norm of an Affine Function . . . . . A.2 Reformulation of Optimization Problems . . . . . . . . . . . A.2.1 L -minimization as an LP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A.2.2 C,,-minimization as an LP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A.2.3 LE-regularized least squares problem as a QCQP . . . A.2.4 Practical Solution of Convex Optimization Problems B Various Model Criteria Applied to All Patients . . . . . 115 115 119 119 121 122 133 . 133 133 134 . 135 . 136 . 136 . 137 . 137 . 139 141 8 CONTENTS Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 Goals of this Research The arterial baroreflex is a fast-acting control mechanism that the body uses to regulate blood pressure. Baroreflex action has been studied in depth by physiologists, and its effects are qualitatively well documented in nearly all physiology texts. The baroreflex is a complex system. Changes in blood pressure are sensed by stretch-sensing receptors primarily lining the arterial walls of the aortic arch and carotid sinus, and these changes are transmitted by efferent nerves to the autonomic nervous system (ANS). There, they are translated into signals that are sent down each of the two branches of the autonomic nervous system, and ultimately regulate the heart-rate, vascular resistance, and heart contractility accordingly' [25]. If either of these two pathways is malfunctioning, or unresponsive, a number of pathologies may 1In fact, these two pathways control much more than this, but as far as baroreflex action, we restrict ourselves to this simplified model of the ANS's action. CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION present, such as acute hypotensive episodes and syncope. While much is known about the role the baroreflex plays in regulating heart rate, because there is no non-invasive way to actually measure the outputs of the ANS, clinicians and physiologists cannot say with certainty how the baroreflex behaves during other, more serious cardiovascular pathologies. For these reasons, measuring baroreflex action through non-invasive methods is of clinical significance. The importance of the baroreflex has not been lost on the quantitative physiology community at large. On the contrary, many works have come forward and tried to understand and model the baroreflex. These works can be divided into two major classes - non-parametric modeling, and parametric modeling. The former focuses on examining the empirical power spectra and transfer functions of the blood pressure to heart rate pathway, in the hopes that the action of the baroreflex and subsequent identification of baroreflexrelated pathologies can be determined from a closer examination of the signals themselves. The second class of quantitative baroreflex research tries to model the baroreflex using techniques from time-series analysis and controltheory. These works use the physiological signals to estimate the parameters of their models, with the goal of deriving meaning from these parameters and their changes. This work is of the latter approach. We fit the baroreflex with a simple model, one that allows for reliable estimation and interpretation of its parameters. Where we differ from previous research in modeling is that ours is more focused on methodology. Instead of focusing on the physiological implications our particular model and estimated coefficients, we spend a great deal 1.2. PROSPECTIVE LOOK AT THIS THESIS of time on defining an appropriate, robust estimation algorithm to identify our model parameters on real, clinical data. Our belief is that, with care in parameter estimation, we can rely on simpler and more easily interpretable models to uncover the action of the baroreflex. The goals of this thesis are then three-fold - to derive a simple model of the baroreflex based on careful study of physiology; to understand the optimal parameter estimation method given our model and data; and to test our model against clinical data to see if our estimated parameters reflect known changes in physiology. 1.2 Prospective Look at this Thesis We continue with a brief overview of the chapters of this thesis. The thesis is structured in a way that logically reflects the evolution of this researchnamely, it sequentially addresses each of our three goals. Chapter 2 - The Arterial Baroreflex In this chapter, we provide the reader with an overview of the baroreflex and baroreflex-related research. We begin with a comprehensive overview of the aspects of the cardiovascular system relevant to the baroreflex and cardiovascular control. We then discuss the specifics of the baroreflex itself, both as a single 'reflex,' and then addressing the action of the two pathways of the ANS independently. We conclude by introducing two ANS blocking drugs that we will encounter later in our data sets - atropine and propranolol. Their action and effects are summarized both generally, and specifically for the baroreflex. We then switch gears and examine efforts to model the baroreflex. These sections are subdivided into the two, major classes of research I introduced CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION earlier in this chapter. The goal in this section is to give the reader an overview of the works that preceded this thesis, and in many ways, shaped its course. It also serves as a good reference from which the reader can see, in the subsequent sections, how our approach differs. Chapter 3 - Modeling the Baroreflex Following our overview of the baroreflex, we remind the reader of the salient features of baroreflex action from which we hope to build our model. We then use these assumptions to build up the subcomponents of our model, being careful to motivate each modeling choice we make. We then introduce our complete model, both in time-series and in transfer function form. Once our model has been motivated and derived, we graphically present the various forms that it can take, both in the time-domain and the frequency-domain, followed by a brief discussion of these various shapes. We do this to demonstrate the rich behavior our simple model is capable of producing, both to convince the reader of our choices, and to allow him/her to compare ours against the prior works referenced in Chapter 2. Chapter 4 - Data and Their Analysis Since this thesis's second and third goals require us to work with real data, we must formally introduce and understand our data. Our data consist of blood pressure measurements, ECG measurements, and respiratory traces from patients undergoing various drug-induced ANS blockades 2. We do this by first discussing the methods in which the data were collected. Following this is a short discussion of the steps we have taken to preprocess the data for our purposes, with an extra 2 We have borrowed these data from Saul et al. [46] with permission from the author. 1.2. PROSPECTIVE LOOK AT THIS THESIS emphasis on describing the problems introduced by this preprocessing. We conclude this chapter by examining the data themselves, using much of the same non-parametric methods used by the studies mentioned in Chapter 2. We do this, once again, for comparison, and additionally, as motivation for why non-parametric methods alone cannot sufficiently capture the entire action of the baroreflex. Chapter 5 - Estimation of the One-Pole Model Coefficients In this chapter, we define and discuss the various schema that are available to estimate our model parameters. This is the largest, and by far, the most methodological and systematic of the chapters. We begin with a general definition of an estimation problem, and narrow our focus to a class of convex-optimization criteria called residual-error-normminimization criteria While it would be tempting to default to using minimum-mean-squarederror (MMSE) criteria , we examine other possibilities, and systematically [9]. show why the MMSE criteria is best suited for our needs. From here, we examine the inadequacies of the standard MMSE formulation, and pose a modification that lends to better estimation of our model parameters. Not satisfied with this improvement, we demonstrate its failure modes, and pose an additional concept, regularization,which overcomes many of the shortcomings of this already modified MMSE formulation. Finally, we account for some of the artifacts introduced by regularization, and come to our final estimation algorithm. The bulk of the research that went in to the thesis was focused on estimation, and unfortunately, much of it is excluded from our 3 Which is a specific residual-error-norm minimizing solution. CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION discussion in this chapter. Not to completely disregard the other estimation schema we have explored, we end the chapter with a brief introduction to another, promising estimation algorithm that relies on the frequency-domain representation of our signals to estimate our parameters. Chapter 6 - Preliminary Results Because the work of this thesis is ultimately focused on clinical, patient monitoring, we show preliminary results of our model and estimation setup applied to the data introduced in Chapter 3. We show promising initial results, with our parameters demonstrating the expected changes when comparing data of patients before and after autonomic blockade. Due to time constraints on the research, and the nature of our data, we were unable to test our model's ability to predict changes in physiology before they manifest. We then finish this chapter reflecting on the success of our model, and suggesting possible directions for future experimentation. Chapter 7 - Conclusion As any conclusion, ours begins with a reca- pitulation of the goals we have laid out here in this introductory chapter, followed by a sequential assessment of our performance against each of them. We do so first at a high level, and then by revisiting each chapter, and detailing the specific implications and conclusions therein. We use this information to discuss some of the many ways in which this work could be extended and built-upon, with the hopes that another researcher will carry on this work. 1.3. CONTRIBUTIONS OF THIS THESIS 1.3 Contributions of this Thesis The contributions of this thesis are clustered around the work in Chapter 5, in which we systematically probe the challenges of estimating parametric models of the baroreflex. We began with what would have seemed like a grossly underparameterized representation of the baroreflex, and showed that it could yield meaningful results if care was taken in fitting it to real data. In doing so, we have been forced to discuss the set of estimation issues, namely numerical ill-posedness and unreliability of estimates, that we suspect has long plagued quantitative modeling efforts in this field. We then expect that the work we have done will alleviate the burden on future researchers, and allow them to pursue the clinical monitoring aspects of this work in greater detail. 16 CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION Chapter 2 The Arterial Baroreflex 2.1 Overview While the mechanics of the heart are that of a continuous pump, the salient features of cardiovascular function, its periodicity and pumping pressure, are best described by a beat-to-beat model. Beat-to-beat models of the heart are not a new concept. The possibility of such a beat to beat model was explored previously by DeBoer, Karemaker, and Strackee of the University of Amsterdam, [16] who examined whether the baroreflex could be explained as a finite impulse response discrete-time system. Their work utilized both time-domain and spectral analyses to relate arterial blood pressure (ABP) to R-R interval length (the time between successive heart beats). It is their work that serves as a launching point for this thesis. Although a finite impulse response filter does indeed do a good job of explaining the heart's beatto-beat fluctuations, we expect that an autoregressive model will provide a more economical representation, and perhaps better physical intuition for the CHAPTER 2. THE ARTERIAL BAROREFLEX baroreflex. The purpose of this research then is to measure baroreflex from a one-pole model. The coefficients in our model represent the different factors that contribute to the function of the baroreflex, namely the sympathetic and parasympathetic nervous system responses. Using R-R, interval and systolic blood pressure waveforms, easily extractable from electrocardiogram (ECG) and ABP waveforms, we can find good estimates of these coefficients. The stability of these estimates under normal conditions, as well as their ability to describe a patient's physiological state will be the criteria for the success of our model. 2.2 Cardiovascular Control Physiology When we speak of the cardiovascular system, we must be certain that we understand its extent. From the pumping heart and its massive efferent arteries down to the myriad tiny capillary beds that perfuse blood to every inch of the body, the cardiovascular system continuosly pumps approximately 5L of blood and fluids through over many miles of vascular tissue for nearly a person's entire lifetime. At a high level, the human cardiovascular system serves two main purposes - to bring nutrients and oxygen to, and to remove waste and metabolic byproducts from the body's various tissues. Because the rate at which different tissues need oxygen and nutrients, or waste removal, varies significantly between tissues (e.g. the brain versus the finger nail beds), and changes with the state of the body (e.g. sleeping, exercising, standing quickly from a hot bath), the cardiovascular system must employ different mechanisms by which to increase, decrease, and direct the flow 2.2. CARDIOVASCULAR CONTROL PHYSIOLOGY of blood throughout the body. Together, these mechanisms constitute the body's cardiovascular control system. One such pathway, the baroreflex, is the focus of this thesis. 2.2.1 Anatomy and Function of the Cardiovascular System Before diving into the details of the baroreflex, a brief overview of the anatomy of the cardiovascular system (CVS) is in order-tracing the path of blood in systemic circulation, starting at with the plumbing: the vasculature. The Vasculature The human vascular system is vast, criss-crossing the entire body. Starting with the aorta, the rigid, elastic arteries send oxygenated blood outwards from the heart to the body. From the arteries, the arterial tree branches into many smaller arterioles. Arterioles, surrounded by smooth muscle, are the primary source of vascular resistance, and have the greatest influence on local blood flow regulation. The final level of efferent vasculature subdivision are the capillaries, which are no larger than a single cell in diameter, but extend to every corner of the body. Their thin structure allows nutrients and oxygen to easily diffuse into neighboring tissues. Once blood passes through the capillary beds in systemic circulation, it is de-oxygenated, and must be taken back to the heart to be re-oxygenated and start the process again. The venous system serves this exact purpose. Veins differ from arteries and arterioles in that while they do have smooth muscle CHAPTER 2. THE ARTERIAL BAROREFLEX lining their walls, they are generally thin and are not particularly contractile in nature. Quite the contrary, veins are far more compliant than arteries and can accomodate varying blood volumes. The venous tree then is similar in structure to the arterial tree, but with blood flowing from the leaves to the root. The root, the superior and inferior vena cava, serve as the last stop for de-oxygenated blood before leaving the systemic circulation for the right atrium of the heart. The Heart and its Conduction Pathways The human heart is subdivided into two halves, right and left. In each half, blood enters the heart into the atrium, a small "filling-chamber". From there, blood is pumped into the larger, more muscular ventricle, which pumps blood into efferent arteries. The two halves of the heart serve different purposes though: the right takes de-oxygenated blood returning from the venous system and pumps it into the lungs by way of the pulmonary artery; the left takes freshly oxygenated blood from the pulmonary veins and pumps it back into the aorta which subdivides into the rest of the body's vasculature. When pumping, blood is pushed from both atria into their respective ventricles by simultaneous contractions. After the ventricles have been filled thusly, they too contract, forcing the blood outwards. Backflow of blood is prevented in each of these contractions by a series of valves at the top and bottom of both atria and both ventricles. While this pumping action is purely mechanical, it is driven by the electric depolarizations and repolarizations of the myocardial (heart) tissue. All myocardial tissue exhibits a phenomenon called automaticity-the ability to 2.2. CARDIOVASCULAR CONTROL PHYSIOLOGY generate an action potential impulse via rapid depolarization. In addition, all myocardial tissue will itself depolarize if subjected to an action potential impulse from neighboring tissue, and in doing so, propagate the depolarization throughout the entire myocardium. Obviously there are limitations to this firing, as there is a set refractory period after a depolarization in which the myocardial cells are non-reactive to these stimuli. Further, if a cell receives an action potential impulse before its own internal firing timer runs down, it will immediately depolarize and its internal timer will reset. In this way, the cells with the fastest internal timers continuously override the other cells' timers, and act like a pacemaker, coordinating the beating of the heart. In the normal heart, these pacemaker cells exist in the sinoatrial (SA) node in the right atrium. A depolarization wave rapidly causes the right atrium to contract. This wave immediately travels to the left atrium via Bachmann's bundle, causing a nearly simultaneous contraction of both atria. In electrocardiogram (ECG) measurements of the heart, this is known as the P-wave. The thick coronary sulci, that separate the atria from the ventricles, blocks this depolarization from entering into the ventricles. As a result, the electrical signal from the contracting atria is forced to travel through what is known as the atrioventricular (AV) node, where conduction is much slower than in the rest of the myocardium. This allows for the atria to fully contract and fill the ventricles with blood before the ventricles begin contracting. Once through the AV node, the contraction impulse is rapidly transmitted throughout both ventricles via the bundle of His and the Purkinje fibers, propelling blood out of the ventricles. This ventricular contraction manifests itself as the R-wave in an ECG, and the total time between atrial and ventricular contractions is CHAPTER 2. THE ARTERIAL BAROREFLEX known as the P-R. interval. Disruption of this conduction pathway or in the pacing of the heart manifest themselves in a number of pathologies. Though a discussion of these pathologies is outside of the scope of this thesis, it is important to note that if a portion of the myocardium does not receive a pacing signal for an extended period of time, its own automaticity will cause it to generate its own pacing signal. In some cases, these alternate pacing signals actually drive the heart to beat spontaneously or in an abnormal way in what is known as an ectopic heartbeat. 2.2.2 Autonomic Nervous System Control of the Heart The autonomic nervous system (ANS) is the portion of the human nervous system that governs involuntary behavior, such as metabolism, digestion, and most important for this thesis, arterial blood pressure. Based on various signals corresponding to blood pressure, blood gas levels, and blood metabolite levels, the autonomic nervous system both modulates cardiac output and peripherally directs blood flow to maintain the body's health. The ANS can be further subdivided into the parasympathetic and sympathetic nervous systems, which can crudely be described as the "calming", and the "fightor-flight" pathways, respectively. The parasympathetic nervous system acts on the CVS primarily through the vagus nerve and the neurotransmitter acetylcholine (ACh), while the sympathetic system employs both nervous and adrenergic chemical pathways. Of the many regulatory pathways the ANS uses to modulate the human heart, this thesis hopes to explore the pressure sensing pathway, the baroreflex. Because of the differing time-scales 2.2. CARDIOVASCULAR CONTROL PHYSIOLOGY at which each of the different control pathways works, we can safely study the baroreflex while ignoring the effects of these other pathways. 2.2.3 The Human Baroreflex The human baroreflex is a wonderfully complex mechanism for maintaining the requisite blood pressure the body needs for optimal perfusion of tissues. While completely denervated patients, lacking a baroreflex alltogether, have been shown to have perfectly functioning blood pressure regulation, the control an intact baroreflex exerts on the heart is both rapid and profound [25]. The baroreflex, administered by the ANS, relies on pressure sensors called baroreceptors. Located in the aortic arch (near the heart) and the carotid sinus (in the neck), the two most influential baroreceptors are highly innervated segments of the blood vessel walls that send electrical impulses to the brain based on deformations in the diameter of the vessel walls-higher stretch corresponds to a higher firing frequency. The carotid baroreceptor are innervated by the glossopharyngeal nerve, while the aortic baroreptors are innervated by the vagus nerve. Both pathways converge at the nucleus of solitary tract (NTS) in the brain, which examines the firing frequency to determine the state of the blood pressure, and then determines parasympathetic or sympathetic tone to maintain cardiovascular homeostasis. Because vascular "stretches" are relative measures, firing frequencies are determined by deviations in vascular stretch from a setpoint. As far back as the 1970's Guyton et. al. demonstrated this concept by showing that baroreceptor activation is blunted in chronically hypertensive (high-blood pressure) patients, and that this blunting occurs within hours of a sustained hypertensive episode CHAPTER 2. THE ARTERIAL BAROREFLEX [25]. While this is now a commonly accepted fact, determining how the body determines this setpoint is a topic of continuing research. On this topic, more modern research presented by Ganten and Pfaff has demonstrated that due to the aortic baroreceptor's direct innervation of the vagus nerve, it has a predominantly depressor effect on heartrate and pressure. To counteract this, their empirical examinations of the carotid baroreceptors have shown that its set point, instead of being centered at a "normal" blood pressure, is centered higher up towards the receptors saturation limit [15]. This could also be because the carotid baroreceptors need to be more sensitive to drops in blood flow to the brain, and thus require increased sensitivity to lower pressures. Parasympathetic Control of Heart Rate The baroreflex controls blood pressure primarily by increasing and decreasing parasympathetic tone. When compared to the sympathetic nervous system, equal changes in parasympathetic tone can elicit changes in heart rate and blood pressure several times as great.This is because the SA node, the atria, and to a lesser extent, the ventricles, are richly innervated by cholinergic (parasympathetic) fibers, or in the case of the SA node, the vagus nerve itself. Studies have shown that cutting the vagus nerve or administering a parasympathetic blockade with drugs can elicit an increase in resting heart rate of 35%, while a mechanical or electrical stimulation of the vagus never can cause the atria to stop beating within 1 heart-beat [25]. In the latter case, patients usually exhibit ventricular escape beats, a specific type of ectopic beat triggered in the ventricle, within a matter of seconds, with beat strength 2.2. CARDIOVASCULAR CONTROL PHYSIOLOGY reduced by 15-20% [25]. Further studies by Brown and Eccles (1934) found that the strength and duration of vagal stimulation on the heart was directly related to when during the heart-beat cycle the stimuli were administered, and in all cases, cardiac function returned to normal within 10-15 seconds of a stimulus [41]. They attributed this near immediate response and equally short time constant to the short diffusion distance acetylcholine faces in the SA node, and to the extremely high concentration of acetylcholinesterase in the tissues surrounding the SA node. What is equally of importance to note is that the parasympathetic nervous system exhibits what is known as "accentuated antagonism" with its sympathetic counterpart: the negative chronotropic effects of vagal stimulation increase when there is a simultaneous stimulation of the sympathetic nervous system. Sympathetic Control of Heart Rate The sympathetic control of the heart rate is complex,especially when the baroreflex is concerned. Unlike the parasympathetic nervous system which acts mainly via the fast acting vagus nerve, the sympathetic nervous system acts on the CVS via sympathetic nerves as well as by modulating adrenergic chemicals in the body. Compared to stimulation of the vagus nerve, direct stimulation of the sympathetic nerves causes a change in heart rate < 5% [25]. This percentage jumps to nearly a 100% increase in heart rate when the person is undergoing a parasympathetic blockade - further supporting the notion that the sympathetic response of the baroreflex is as much because of an inhibition of the parasympathetic system as it is because of stimulation of sympathetic pathways. In fact, the sympathetic outflow of patients with CHAPTER 2. THE ARTERIAL BAROREFLEX increased intracranial pressure or ischemia (localized restriction of bloodflow) is between 4 to 6 times as great as when baroreflex stimulates the sympathetic pathway. Unlike the parasympathetic nervous system, the sympathetic nervous system tends to effect the heart's contractility, and therefore, the beat strength of the heart. Maximal stimulation of the sympathetic nerves increased beat strength by 60-70%, as compared to the 15-20% reduction in strength caused by parasympathetic stimulation[25] .The time-constant of the sympathetic control pathway is also markedly longer than that of the parasympathetic system, ranging from 30 seconds to as long as 8 minutes [25] .This in large part due to the greater role neurotransmitters play in the sympathetic pathway. The main sympathetic adrenergic receptors can be divided into a receptors, and 13 receptors (further subdivisions exist, but are not relevant to this discussion). a receptors are most responsive to neurotransmitters norepinephrine and epinephrine, and primarily control smooth muscle tone and act as neurotransmitter inhibitors. /3 receptors collectively control changes in lipolysis, heart muscle contraction, and to a lesser extent, smooth muscle contraction, and are most sensitive to the neurotransmitter isoprenaline [41]. In addition to being vital for baroreflex, 0 receptors also control the production of renin, a key component in the renin-angiotensinaldosterone (RAAS) system- a slower blood pressure regulatory pathway mediated by the kidneys and lungs. The sympathetic response is governed by adrenergic receptors in presynaptic and post-synaptic locations. Pre-synaptic sites can be stimulated or inhibited by hormones and neurotransmitters, such as angiotensin, adenosine, catecholamines, prostoglandins, and ACh.In these presynaptic locations 2.2. CARDIOVASCULAR CONTROL PHYSIOLOGY (mainly comprised of a 2 receptors), receptors in axon-terminals react to exogenous agonists by releasing neurotransmitters, and are inhibited by endogenous neurotransmitters via negative feedback. In post-synaptic locations, receptors stimulated by neurotransmitters release mediators that cause the responses that constitute sympathetic cardiac control. Because this total response can be modulated both pre and post synaptically, sympathetic response to different interventions can be complex. 2.2.4 Pharmacological Intervention and the Baroreflex To better understand the baroreflex, part of this thesis involves analysis of patients undergoing chemical blockade of parasympathetic and sympathetic nervous pathways with atropine and propranolol, respectively. For this reason, it is important to briefly address the pharmacology and action of those drugs, so we can better understand their effects. Atropine Atropine, 3-hydroxy-2-phenylpropanoate, is used as a parasympathetic nervous system blocking agent. Originally discovered in the nightshade plant, atropine is a competetive antagonist of ACh with a half-life of ~2 hours [32]. Atropine is prized as an extremely selective blocker in cardiac and smooth muscle cells, having a strong effect on all muscarinic acetylcholine receptors (mAChR's: M 1 , M 2 , and M3 ) and having a negligible affect on nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChR's) [32]. At varying dosages, atropine has the following effects on humans: o 0.5 mg - Diminished salivary and sweating responses CHAPTER 2. THE ARTERIAL BAROREFLEX * 1-5 mg - Pupils dialate and heart rate increases * > 5 mg - Motility and tone of the gut decreases, micturition inhibited Because of the wide range of uncomfortable side-effects, more selective mAChR blockers are preferred in a clinical setting. Atropine in the Heart Because parasympathetic control of the heart is most notable in healthy adults atropine is not as effective when administered to children or the elderly. In healthy adults, atropine blocks vagal stimulation of the SA node by binding to A 2 mAChR's, causing an increase in heart rate. Amongst other things, this may stop or decrease the occurrence of respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) in patients [22]. Atropine also increases heart rate by reducing the AV node conduction time, effectively shrinking P-R interval lengths. Further, atrial conduction times are also decreased. In extremely high doses, atropine has been shown to cause atrial arrhythmia and possibly atrioventricular dissociation [22]. Propranolol Propranolol is a non-selective 73-blocking drug used most often to treat hypertension and related arrhythmias. Its effects are not as noticeable in normal patients, but become more apparent in exercising patients or those undergoing tilt-tests. Propranolol acts to slow the release of norepinephrine from nerve terminals, and also blocks the release of renin from the juxtaglomerular apparatus [22]. 2.3. PRIOR WORK Propranolol in the Heart In the atria, propranolol decreases the SA node's firing rate, and thus, the heart rate. In addition, the heart's contractility is decreased, and the AV node conduction time is increased, causing a slight decrease in blood pressure, and a more noticeable drop in cardiac output (CO). Propranolol reduces the firing rate of all ectopic pacemakers as well. Counterintuitively, the 3 blocking effects of propranolol appear to increase a-receptor sensitivity to pressors, drugs that increase blood pressure such as epinephrine, and increase the effects of the mAChR blocker, atropine [32]. 2.3 Prior Work There exists a vast depth of literature pertaining to modelling the autonomic nervous system regulation of the heart. Most of the significant works in the area center around one of two topics: understanding the frequency dependence of the various control pathways, and determining models that explain the action of these pathways. 2.3.1 Spectral Analysis of Heart Rate Variability The majority of the work focusing on understanding the spectral dependence of cardiac control aims to determine the dominant frequencies at which the sympathetic nervous system, parasympathetic nervous system, and other pathways such as the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system (RAAS) regulate the heart. Using /-blockers and muscarinic receptor blockers, many of these studies performed unilateral and bilateral autonomic nervous system CHAPTER 2. THE ARTERIAL BAROREFLEX blockades of subjects to identify the conditions under which different nervous system pathways affect cardiac control. In all major cases surveyed, the frequencies relating to cardiac control are in the range of 0-0.5 Hz [2, 37, 39, 43]. Even more specifically, this frequency range can be partitioned into two subsets of interest - the low frequencies (LO-FR, approx. 0.05 < f < 0.12 Hz), and high frequencies (HI-FR, approx. 0.2 < f < 0.28 Hz ). Pomeranz et. al (1985) found that the power of the heart rate signal in the high frequency band was correlated to the depth of breathing with the frequency of peak power related to the breathing frequency. In addition, their research showed that high-frequency cardiac control is almost entirely the responsibility of the parasympathetic nervous system, while low frequency control is mediated by both sympathetic and parasympathetic systems, as well as the RAAS [39]. In the low frequency band, they found that while both parasympathetic and sympathetic nervous systems actively regulate heart rate, body tilt plays a key role in determining the relative strength of each pathway. Specifically, they found that in the standing position, both sympathetic and parasympathetic activity mediate heart rate variability, while in the supine position, parasympathetic activity dominates. The work of Akselrod et. al. (1985) corroborates each of these claims by Pomeranz, and draws attention to two more spectral peaks in heart rate signals, namely a peak between 0.1 Hz and 0.15 Hz , and a very low frequency peak between 0.04 Hz and 0.08 Hz. The former is often attributed to Mayer waves, spontaneous unexplained 0.1 Hz oscillations in blood pressure, while the latter is likely caused by changes in vascular tone caused by thermoregulation. They found that parasympathetic blockade reduces the variability of 2.3. PRIOR WORK arterial blood pressure and heart rate at low, and especially at high frequencies. The reduction in HR variability was far more pronounced than that of ABP variability, indicating that cardiac control might act on the former more profoundly than the latter, a fact corroborated by Saul et. al. (1991) [46]. The work of Saul et al. studies the non-parametric transfer functions using a broad-band respiratory drive previously discussed by Berger et al.' (1989) [7], with both papers using this technique to try and tease apart the effect of RSA on the baroreflex 2 . A byproduct of this work is that they demonstrate that in sympathetic ) - blockade, the reduction in ABP and HR variability is negligible at high frequencies, while noticeable at low frequencies. Di Rienzo et. al. (2009) performed similar experimentation on cats, but used surgical denervation to remove the sympathetic and parasympathetic 2 nervous pathways [43]. They analyzed the squared coherence modulus (Ik1 where S,,(w) is the power spectral density of x and Sx,(w) is the cross spectral density of x and y) of the R-R interval length and systolic blood pressure of cats with intact nervous control and after autonomic denervation. A high coherence modulus implies a more linear relationship between the two signals at the given frequencies. They found that the noticeable peak in Ik12 value at 0.1 Hz in the control case was absent in the denervated cats, which experienced an increase in |k12 at lower frequencies. They concluded that at low frequencies, baroreflex mediation of heart rate by autonomic nervous system is via nonlinear means and is relatively linear at higher frequencies. In addition, their work showed a marked drop 'The first authors of each paper being a named author on the other as well. 2 The RSA is thought to act only at the respiratory frequency. The authors have patients breath according to a modified Poisson process, thereby attempting to whiten the respiratory power across all frequencies CHAPTER 2. THE ARTERIAL BAROREFLEX in heart rate signal power when autonomic control was removed. DeBoer, Karemaker, and Strackee examined the coherence of R-R interval length and systolic blood pressure in humans with an intact baroreflex and found the same peak located at around 0.1 Hz that Di Rienzo et. al. noted in cats 2.3.2 [16]. Modeling of Heart Rate Transfer Function Research into modeling the heart rate transfer function focuses on determining the magnitude and the phase of the heart rate response to changes in blood pressure and other physiological signals. The work of DeBoer, Karemaker, and Strackee (1987), which serves as the launching point of this thesis, aims to model fast heart rate regulation by the autonomic nervous system, at frequencies > 0.5 Hz [16]. They model the klh R-R interval length as a moving average (See Ch 3.2.1) model, with blood pressure as the input. In order for their model to agree with existing research that shows baroreceptor sensitivity (BRS = RR) as sigmoidal, the pressure values they input into their model are what they define as, "effective systolic pressures," given by S' - 120 + 18 arctan S 120 where S is the systolic blood pressure. In their model, the coefficient of the k" effective systolic pressure represents the vagal contribution to baroreflex, while the other coefficients represent the sympathetic contribution. In order to perform simulations, DeBoer et. al. restricted the number of taps of their model to k < 6, with the sum of the systolic contribution equal to that of the vagal contribution. Their work was limited to simulation, in which they simulate blood pressure by a priori determining a respiratory frequency and fixing the mean blood pressure at 120 mmHg. In simulations of resting human blood pressure, their model 2.3. PRIOR WORK implies that there is no phase lag between changes in ABP and changes in R-R interval length. More specifically, their model claims that respiration affects ABP which in turns affects R-R interval length via the baroreflex. This directionality was partially demonstrated in clinical data by O'Leary et al. (2003), who noticed that in the supine position, changes in MAP were followed by a "directionally similar" change in TPR approximately 2 seconds later [37]. Saul et. al. (1991) not only focused on modeling the ABP-HR transfer function, but also on the ABP-Respiration and HR-Respiration transfer functions [46]. The authors are very careful to note that the ABP-HR transfer function is closed loop and examining the transfer function phase does not truly capture causality. Theirs is an autoregressive, continuous-time model (See Ch 3.2.2) in which the sympathetic and parasympathetic pathways are modeled as ideal low-pass filters, with an additional continuous-time-delay element on the sympathetic pathway. In addition, they choose to model both the vasculature and the baroreceptors themselves as independent, continuoustime delay elements. When the model is fitted to non-parametric transfer functions from their data, the authors note a consistent phase lag between instantaneous lung volume (ILV) and pulse pressure (PP) of -90', with a significant increase in magnitude when standing than when supine.They also posit that the sympathetic nervous system does not contribute to the effect respiration has on ABP. Further, they claim that the mechanical coupling between breathing and cardiac control is stronger in the standing than in the supine position. This finding does in fact conflict with the research of Pomerantz discussed earlier, as the mechanical breathing-heart rate coupling CHAPTER 2. THE ARTERIAL BAROREFLEX is often attributed to vagal stimulation. Akselrod et. al. (1985) describe a novel closed loop model of baroreflex in their work. They describe the forward path between HR and ABP as a linear, time-invariant (LTI) system HABPHR(f) with an additive noise source ny that represents the mechanical modulation of ABP due to intrathoracic pressure and changes in localized autoregulation of vascular bed tone [2]. Similarly, the forward path between ABP and HR is modeled as an LTI system HHR,ABP(f) with another noise source n, that represents inputs from receptors other than baroreceptors as well as centrally mediated variation in autonomic tone. By modeling external factors in the HR-ABP pathway as two separate noise sources, the model takes advantage of the frequency dependence of the various external inputs noise sources. At low frequencies, nx is nearly non-existant, and at high-frequencies, ny is nearly non-existant, making a closed-form solution of the model possible if these approximations are taken into account. The work by Barbieri, Parati, and Saul (2001) focused on characterizing closed-loop dynamics of the heart baroreflex using discrete-time, bivariate modeling [4]. Their work centers around independently estimating the feedback loop (ABP to HR) baroreflex, and the closed loop (feedback loop as well as their proposed HR to ABP feedforward loop) heart baroreflex as separate, autoregressive elements. In doing this, they try to show that examining the forward loop and feedback loop separately, as many researchers are wont to do, provides inaccurate estimates of baroreflex gains and actions as compared to simultaneously modelling both directions.They performed estimation of their parameters using a recursive least squares estimation method (RLS) with a forgetting factor tuned to between 2.3. PRIOR WORK 35 0.8 and 1 (corresponding to a per-beat blood pressure effect half-life of > 3 heartbeats). To enhance the stationarity of their signals, the researchers pre-filtered all of their signals with an IIR filter with a 0.03 Hz corner frequency.The authors conclude that independent open loop analysis of the feedforward and feedback paths do produce different estimates of baroreflex gains than closed loop analysis, with the open loop gains tending to be larger than closed loop estimates. This, they claim, is due to the fact that unidirectional analysis attributes all changes in the output to changes in the input, but in fact, these changes are bidirectional and simultaneous. 36 CHAPTER 2. THE ARTERIAL BAROREFLEX Chapter 3 Modeling the Baroreflex 3.1 Modeling Considerations In order to model the baroreflex, we must first decide on a class of models that is rich enough to explain the baroreflex, yet simple enough to facilitate easy estimation. We begin by examining the salient features of the ANS baroreflex, namely: " High blood pressure elicits a baroreflex response that aims to lower blood pressure and slow the heart, and vice versa. " ParasympatheticPathways - The main affector of the baroreflex. Acts within a heart-beat to control heart-rate via the vagus nerve, with a relatively short time constant on its decay. * Sympathetic Pathways - The lesser affector of the baroreflex. Acts within the span of a few beats via adrenergic neurotransmitters and CHAPTER 3. MODELING THE BAROREFLEX some direct innervation, with a long time constant (from ~ 15s to up to ~ 5 minutes) From this brief overview of the baroreflex, and considering the body of research and work presented in Ch. 1, it is clear that many model classes could serve as the proper platform to understand the baroreflex. Our goal in modeling is to gain useful estimation about the state of the baroreflex. What we do not hope to explain is the effects of other regulatory pathways such as the RAAS and chemoreceptors, nor do we expect to be able to phenomena such as RSA or Mayer waves. Understanding that these all play a role in defining the function and regulation of the CVS, we expect that a carefully chosen model and estimation scheme will demonstrate the baroreflex action, without overfitting to the effects of other such mechanisms. 3.2 Time Series Models Before discussing our chosen model of the baroreflex, a bit of modeling notation must be introduced. We will restrict our focus to four classes of discrete-time models commonly used in physiological modelling: moving average (MA), autoregressive (AR), and autoregressive with exogenous inputs (ARX) models. I will try and provide as succinct but complete description of these time-series models, but for further reading, I direct the reader to other resources, such as the books by Box and Jenkins [21], Porat [40], and Ljung [33], among others. 3.2. TIME SERIES MODELS 3.2.1 Moving Average (MA) Models A moving average model of time-series Yt relates Y to past and present values of a (generally) white-noise input, and takes the form: Yt p y±+5EWi -rt-i i=0 where p, is a constant, wi are scalar weights, and p is the order of the model. The noise values, ij, are independent draws from an zero mean, finite variance white-noise process 1. The model then is a finite impulse response (FIR) filter, with p impulse response coefficients. The primary assumption of MA models is that the process Y is a stationary process [40] 2. For this reason, both inputs and outputs cannot exhibit seasonality or trends, and should be de-trended before modeling is attempted. 3.2.2 Autoregressive (AR) Models An autoregressive model of a time series Y recursively relates Yt to its past values, by taking the form: P Y = yy +( Oi -t-i + 77t where the definitions for py, ir, and p are unchanged from the MA case, and we replace weights wi with 6j. The same assumptions of stationarity apply to 'This white-noise assumption can be relaxed to allow for r to be another known timeseries. 2 In a broad sense, a signal is stationary if its statistical moments do not change based on when the series is sampled. CHAPTER 3. MODELING THE BAROREFLEX the inputs and outputs of an AR model. AR coefficients are often discovered from a time series of Y by solving the Yule-Walker equations, which are a set of p equations that derive from the autocorrelation function of Y assumed by the AR structure. 3.2.3 ARX/ARMA Models An autoregressive model with exogenous inputs of time series Y recursively relates Y to its past values, as well as past and present values of an exogenous model input, Xt. P Yt=y+Z i=1 q 1-Y- +( -Xt-i + qt i=0 where the model order is now described by two parameters, p and q, -yand O are weight vectors, and 71 is again i.i.d. zero-mean white noise. Here, a distinction must be made between ARX and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models, as in the ARMA case, Xt is replaced by it and the 7t term in the ARX model can be subsumed by the -yo in the ARMA model. 3.3 Derivation of Baroreflex Model We avoid modeling the entire closed-loop baroreflex as estimation of closedloop parameters is a challenging problem unto itself [21], and so we will stop with trying to understand the forward ABP--HR pathway of the baroreflex. Building on the success of DeBoer et al. at modeling the forward baroreflex using an MA model to model this forward loop, we seek to find an 3.3. DERIVATION OF BAROREFLEX MODEL alternate, more parsimonious representation. From our examination of their model, we believe that an ARX model can closely match the geometric constraints and impulse response DeBoer et al. simulated with their MA model. More specifically, we believe that a one-pole, one-zero (1p1z) model can model the baroreflex with more easily estimable coefficients than a MA model can. While we expect higher order ARX models to be able to capture richer impulse responses, parameter estimation becomes much less reliable as model order increases. Our model represents the kth R-R interval (RRk) as the sum of components reflecting parasympathetic response (Pk) and the sympathetic response (Wk), (Sk), both of which are assumed to be functions of systolic blood pressure and an external noise source, Nk. We accordingly write: RRk - Pk +Sk+ N (3.1) To better characterize the relationship among pressure, central nervous system response, and R-R interval variability, we linearize our model by using the signals' beat-to-beat deviations from their respective set-points instead of from their nominal values, denoting these deviations with lowercase letters. The estimation of an appropriate set-point parameter will be saved for future work. Since the parasympathetic response is equated to the very fast acting vagal response, we can describe the parasympathetic response as a function of systolic blood pressure in the current heart-beat using the following equation: Pk -- o Sk (3.2) 42 CHAPTER 3. MODELING THE BAROREFLEX Figure 3.1: Block diagram of one-pole, one-zero model of baroreflex where ao can be thought of as the gain for the parasympathetic tone. Because the sympathetic response relies more on adrenergic neurotransmitters to control heart rate, we model the current sympathetic response at the kth heart-beat as a function of the sympathetic response at the previous heartbeat, and the systolic blood pressure at the previous heart-beat: Sk a1 - Sk-1 + 0 - Sk-1 A block diagram of our small-signal model is presented in Fig. 3.1 (3.3) 3. This constitutes a single-pole autoregressive model for baroreflex, with a pole at 0. Putting the two components together, we arrive at our beat-to- beat model of the baroreflex: rk ~ cO - Sk 3 + a1 - Sk-1 + 1 -rrk-1 -+-k (3.4) We describe our block elements as the z-transform of their discrete-time impulse responses, both of which are described in the following sections 3.3. DERIVATION OF BAROREFLEX MODEL It is often assumed that the small-signal noise source, nk, is Gaussian, or of some known distribution. Here we do not yet choose to do this. Instead we further focus on our model parameters and their interpretation. Model Parameters and Derived Parameters To extract meaning from our model, it is important to understand what each of our parameters means. It is easy to see that ao, being the only parasympathetic parameter, should be the parasympathetic gain-its fluctuation should mirror the changes in parasympathetic tone. A naive approach would then be to assume ai represents the sympathetic gain. This will, as I will demonstrate later, validate the commonly accepted notion that the parasympathetic gain is multiplicatively larger than the sympathetic gain. Sympathetic activity continues far beyond the ai coefficient of our model, as it includes a feedback loop with gain #. Therefore, I will say that sympathetic c [ a for 0 < < 1. Because 1i= these gains are likely to be unique to each patient due to differences in heart gain is defined as the infinite sum: a 1 rates and blood pressures, it is important that we normalize them somehow for analysis. Define the parasympathetic-to-sympathetic ratio (PSR) as: PSR Gp (3.5) where G, and G, are respectively the parasympathetic and sympathetic gains,as defined above, meaning: PSR = ao(1ao(1 - 0) + a1 CHAPTER 3. MODELING THE BAROREFLEX We will use PSR extensively to compare patients undergoing various interventions later in this thesis. Because our model parameters reflect physiological gains, we impose certain restrictions on their ranges. First, we require all paramaters to take only non-negative values, as the sign of the change in R-R interval length should be the same as that of the change in blood pressure assuming the change is due to baroreflex. Further, we force 0 to be strictly less than 1, as the sympathetic impulse response should have finite-energy and be BIBO stable oc 3.4 Time-Domain Behavior of our Baroreflex Model In order to properly interpret the results of future experimentation with our 1plz model, is necessary to understand its time-domain characteristics - both as independent subcomponents, and then as a single model. For this analysis, we will only consider the discrete-time impulse response of the constituent sub-systems, where the input bpk = 6[k], where: 1 for k = 0 6[k] = (3.6) 0 otherwise Because we are discussing impulse responses of both Pk and sk, we will use standard systems notation to denote these impulse responses, and refer to them as p[k] and s[k], respectively. Further, we call the entire system's 3.4. TIME-DOMAIN BEHAVIOR OF OUR BAROREFLEX MODEL 45 impulse response h[k], with h[k] = p[k] + s[k] (this relationship holds by linearity of the system). It is important to note that rrk is the convolution (*) of bpk and h[k], as this is integral to understanding why we place so much emphasis on the impulse responses of our system and subsystems: O ( rrk=h*bpk= h[T- k] - bpk (3.7) T=-00 3.4.1 Parasympathetic Impulse Response Because the parasympathetic contribution to R-R interval in our model is a simple gain element, its impulse response is just a scaled impulse response, shown for a different values of ao in Fig. 3.2, and given mathematically as: p[k] 3.4.2 ao for k = 0 0 otherwise (3.8) Sympathetic Impulse Response The sympathetic pathway is modeled as a one-step delay applied to a onepole model, and consequently has more complex behavior when coefficients ai and 0 change. Unlike the parasympathetic pathway, the sympathetic pathway has an infinite impulse response, with initial "height" parameter, ai, and "shape" parameter /. Mathemetically, we write the impulse response as: CHAPTER 3. MODELING THE BAROREFLEX Parasympathetic Impulse Response II I I 0 -- a O .. . -1 -0.8 -06 -84 0 -02 02 0.4 0.6 8a 0'8 k (beats) Figure 3.2: Parasympathetic impulse responses for various values of ao p[k] = ai - Ok0 From Fig. for k > 1 (3.9) otherwise 3.3, we see that increasing ai can significantly change the magnitude of the first few terms of s[k], but irrespective of the choice of ai, the systems converge relatively quickly. On the other hand, if only f is changed, the long-term evolution of s[k] is changed dramatically. Specifically,the half life time of the system k changes goes as - 1 + 1 as seen ......................... iiiiiii 3.4. TIME-DOMAIN BEHAVIOR OF OUR BAROREFLEX MODEL 47 in Fig. 3.4, with lim ki = oc, and lim ki = 1 /3-1 2 #02 It is interesting to note, however, that because the value of derived DC gain parameter, G, depends on both a1 and 0, there are a series of curves, of differing impulse response heights and durations, that corresponse to constant values of G, as shown in Fig. 3.5. For a given G, as / and as 3 -+ 0, ai -+ - 1, ai -- 0, G,. Sympathetic Impulse Response . E <1 k (beats) Figure 3.3: Sympathetic impulse responses for various values of 3 1.26c( . .............................. CHAPTER 3. MODELING THE BAROREFLEX Sympathetic Impulse Response k (beats) Figure 3.4: Sympathetic impulse responses for various values of 3 3.4.3 Total Model Impulse Response The total model impulse response is the additive sum of the sympathetic and parasympathetic impulse responses, and so we write: h[k] a~o for k ai -0k-1 fork> 1 0 otherwise 0 (3.10) Linearity dictates that the behavior of the total model impulse response 3.5. FREQUENCY DOMAIN BEHAVIOR OF THE ARX BAROREFLEX MODEL49 Iso-G. Impulse Responses 0 1 k (beats) Figure 3.5: Sympathetic impulse responses for constant G, - various values of ai, # reacts in the same ways as its subcomponents to changes in ao, ai, and 0, and so further discussion is not necessary. 3.5 Frequency Domain Behavior of the ARX Baroreflex Model Understanding the frequency-domain characteristics of our ARX model allows us to understand the filtering by which our system converts blood pres- 50 CHAPTER 3. MODELING THE BAROREFLEX sure to R-R interval, as well as the limitations of our model has in capturing R-R variability. To understand the frequency-domain characteristics of the parasympathetic and sympathetic systems, we examine their transfer functions, where the transfer function, H(e-jQ), of a discrete-time system with impulse response h[k], input Xk, and corresponding output Yk is given by: Y(e-J0) H(e-) = Y(-Q)(3.11) X(e-inl) where X(e iQ) = F(Xk) is the discrete-time Fourier transform of Xk, given by the relationship: 00 F(Xk) S Xke-jk, 0 < Q < 27r (3.12) k=-co We can think of the DTFT as the discrete-time equivalent of the standard Fourier transform, and a special case of the Z-transform (replacing e-j9 in the sum with z-'), itself the discrete-time analog of the Laplace transform. Further, when considering the discrete-time case, we are limited to frequencies in the range 0 < Q < 27. Because ours is a beat-by-beat model, we are in fact, not looking at a time-series, but a beat-series, and so our frequencies will correspond to beg instead of Hz, but a more detailed discussion of that topic will be presented in a later section. 3.5. FREQUENCY DOMAIN BEHAVIOR OF THE ARX BAROREFLEX MODEL51 3.5.1 Parasympathetic Transfer Function The transfer function of the parasympathetic nervous system described by our model takes the form: H~i~~ __P(e-iuk) (3.13) .(Qk)a0 H(e-k BP(e-30k) Because we model the parasympathetic system as a gain element, it acts as an all-pass filter, with a flat magnitude across all frequencies as shown in Fig. 3.6. Changing the value of a 0 then only serves to increase or decrease the magnitude of the spectral response. Consequently, there is not much value in discussing the parasympathetic system's frequency-domain characteristics until we have understood the sympathetic pathway's more complex behavior. 3.5.2 Sympathetic Transfer Function The transfer function of the sympathetic nervous system described by our model takes the form: H's(CQk) -S(e-jQk) BP(e-ijk) aie-jQk 1 - Be-iQk The magnitude of the transfer function can be seen for varying a 1 and rameters in Fig. 3.7 and 3.8. Because for all Q, Ie-jQ # pa- = 1, the ai term in the sympathetic transfer function acts similarly to a gain element. On the other hand, the # parameter once again acts as a "shape" parameter-either boost- ing low frequencies and attenuating higher frequencies for large 3 near 1, or having a small boosting effect on low frequencies but causing relatively small .................................. ...... . ... ... CHAPTER 3. MODELING THE BAROREFLEX Parasympathetic Frequency Responses 0 0.05 0. 0.15 0.2 025 0,3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 Frequency (I/beats) Figure 3.6: Parasympathetic frequency responses for various values of ao attenuation of higher frequencies for small 0 near zero. Therefore sweeping through the range of physiological 13 from 0 to 1 trades high frequencies gain for low frequency gain. As a quick sanity check, let us explicitly derive the magnitude |H,(e-j')|: aie-jQk 1 1 - Oe-3k 1 - /3(cos(Q) + j'sin(Q)) 1 + 32 - 20 cos(Q) (3.15) It is interesting to further explore the concept of iso-G, curves in the context of the frequency-domain, and we do so in Fig. 3.9. As expected, 3.5. FREQUENCY DOMAIN BEHAVIOR OF THE ARX BAROREFLEX MODEL53 all iso-gain transfer functions have the same value at Q = 0, but the story does not end there. From our previous analysis, we see that, for a given gain, G8 , increasing ) increases high-frequency attenuation. Intuitively, this means that as the sympathetic pathway's "memory" increases (i.e. increase in k ), it is less sensitive to high-frequency changes in input signal bpk. When the system has a very short memory, characterized by a small #, higher frequency components of the signal are passed with nearly no attenuation to the output R-R interval, increasing R-R variability. Because R-R variability is an important metric physiologists use to understand various pathologies, examining G, as the sole metric for the state of the sympathetic pathway should be insufficient! 3.5.3 Total Model Transfer Function The total model transfer function H(e-iQ) is given as the additive sum of its two constituent subsystem transfer functions: ao + (a 1 - aoj)e-i(316 H(6~~) ± H(e-j") = H,(e-jo) + H,(e-j") = '0+(,-a~-"(3.16) 1- - with corresponding magnitude: |H(e- )| =V/as + (a 1 - ao3) 2 + 2ao(ai - ao3) cos(Q) 21±+3 2 -20 cos(Q) While the transfer functions themselves add due to linearity, the magnitude of the frequency of response of the system certainly is not the sum of the magnitude responses of the subsystems! Fig. 3.10, 3.11, and 3.12 show CHAPTER 3. MODELING THE BAROREFLEX Sympathetic Frequency Responses 0 005 0.1 0.15 0.2 025 0.3 0.35 04 045 0.5 Frequency (I/beats) Figure 3.7: Sympathetic frequency responses for various values of # this dissimilarity quite clearly. Effect of ao on the system transfer function From (3.17), we can see that increasing ao increases the leading term of the denominator, but has an unclear effect on the sinusoidal term, by simultaneously decreasing the ai - ao/3 term. For sufficiently large ao such that ai < ao, increasing ao stops the attenuation of high frequencies, as can be seen in Fig. 3.10. This is a unique consequence of our model, but nonetheless, corroborates the work by Guyton that shows that parasympa- 3.5. FREQUENCY DOMAIN BEHAVIOR OF THE ARX BAROREFLEX MODEL55 Sympathetic Frequency Responses 0 005 0.1 0.15 0.2 025 03 0.35 04 0.45 05 Frequency (1/beats) Figure 3.8: Sympathetic frequency responses for various values of # thetic control is the primary determinant of baroreflex control, and has a strong inhibitory affect on sympathetic action [25]. Thus, in the case where parasympathetic tone dominates, we would expect to see higher heart-rate variability by both our model's and physiologists' predictions. Effect of a 1 on the system transfer function The effects of ai are not as complicated as those of ao. In fact, from both (3.17) and Fig. 3.11 we see that increasing a 1 has a uniquely one-sided effect - increasingly low frequencies and attenuating high frequencies. This means .: .1 11 ... .............................. , .......... CHAPTER 3. MODELING THE BAROREFLEX Iso-G3 Frequency Responses 0 005 0.1 0.15 025 0.2 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 Frequency (I/beats) Figure 3.9: Sympathetic frequency responses for constant G, - various values of ai, # that when examining the frequency response of the sympathetic pathway alone, we were mislead into believing that a 1 had a similar effect as ao. When the two components are added, ai acts like another "memory" element in the MA sense, we are quickly disabused of this notion. Effect of 3 on the system transfer function Varying the value of 0 has perhaps the most interesting effect on the system's frequency response. This is because /3 appears in both numerator and de- 3.5. FREQUENCY DOMAIN BEHAVIOR OF THE ARX BAROREFLEX MODEL57 nominator of the transfer function, and is multiplicatively coupled with both a 1 and ao. Thus, the particular choice of ao and a 1 have a significant impact on the role # plays in shaping the frequency response of the system. A spe- cific example of this "strange" effect is shown in Fig. 3.12, where increasing magnifies frequencies less than 0.27r, attenuates middle frequencies from 0.27r to about 0.87, but magnifies frequencies between 0.87 and -r relative to # smaller values of 0! From this cursory examination of the time and frequency-domain characteristics of our model, it has become clear that not only is examining more than just the gain values computed from our model important, but also understanding the effects of different events on the coefficients themselves is key to understanding the changes they induce in the baroreflex. CHAPTER 3. MODELING THE BAROREFLEX Baroreceptor Model Frequency Responses 0.1 0.15 0.2 025 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 Frequency (1/beats) Figure 3.10: Total model frequency responses for various values of ao 0.5 . ..... .......... .. - a 3.5. FREQUENCY DOMAIN BEHAVIOR OF THE ARX BAROREFLEX MODEL59 Baroreceptor Model Frequency Responses 10 I I I I I I 4al - 0.25a 100 - so 50 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 02 025 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 Frequency (1/beats) Figure 3.11: Total model frequency responses for various values of ai 0.5 - I 60 CHAPTER 3. MODELING THE BAROREFLEX Baroreceptor Model Frequency Responses .C: 025 Frequency (1/beats) Figure 3.12: Total model frequency responses for various values of # Chapter 4 Data and Their Analysis Data are an important part of model validation and tuning. Because validating our model requires us to understand, a priori, the state of the baroreflex before applying our model to it, it is vital to find data from which this information is readily available. Unfortunately, this is easier said than done, as there is no "gold-standard" model of the baroreflex against which we are testing ours' performance. Instead, we require the next best thing - data sets with patients undergoing interventions that alter the balance between sympathetic and parasympathetic pathways in the body in known ways. Once acquired, these data must be preprocessed and converted to beat-by-beat time series, and these series must be examined in both time-domain and frequency-domain. CHAPTER 4. DATA AND THEIR ANALYSIS 4.1 Autonomic Blockade Data 4.1.1 Acquisition The data used to test our model come from the work of Saul et al. and is used with consent from the authors [46]. The data relevant to our work consists of arterial blood pressure recordings from a radial artery catheter and surface ECG measurements sampled at 360 Hz. Subjects consisted of 14 nonsmoking adult male volunteers, ages 19-38. All subjects were first screened for having any history of cardiopulmonary disease. Subjects were instructed to breathe with respiratory intervals governed by a modified Poisson process with mean 12 breaths/min so as to whiten the spectrum of their breathing. Data were recorded in six 13 minute segments. Subjects data were recorded first in the supine position, and then in the standing position, with time allowed between readings for the physiology to equilibrate. Subjects were then administered either the parasympathetic blocking drug atropine (0.03 mg/kg, n=7) or the sympathetic blocking drug propranolol (0.2 mg/kg, n - 7) [32], and after equilibration, signal measurements were again taken. Finally, the patients were all given the "other" drug, either propranolol for patients previously administered atropine, and atropine for patients previously administered propranolol. After time was again given for equilibration, measurements were taken again in both standing and supine positions. For the purpose of this thesis, we restrict ourselves to examining only those data where patients are in a control state, or have been administered only one drug. 4.1. AUTONOMIC BLOCKADE DATA 4.1.2 Preprocessing The data were converted from integer to floating point format using the rdsamp algorithm provided by PhysioNet [23], and beat detection was performed using an open source peak detection algorithm on the ECG signal [13]. Data is then sampled beat-by-beat for the R-R interval length, systolic, diastolic, and mean blood pressures of that beat. A note on beat-to-beat data sampling We chose to index our data by beat in a series of point events, as described by DeBoer [45]. Authors Luczag and Laurig (1973), Kobayashi and Musha (1982), and Pomeranz et. al (1985) opt for this type of analysis [26] [35] [39]. Doing so, we are not forced to make any assumption on inter-beat length as we would if we used the interval spectrum method proposed by Mohn (1976), in which each beat is considered to be spaced equidistantly at time intervals equal to the average heart-rate [44]. The implicit downside of using a beatto-beat discrete-time model is that we are limited in our ability to analyze the frequency spectrum, as all events that happens within a beat have the same spectral contribution. Further, because our sampling rate is so low, we have much more information clustered at higher frequencies than would be seen by continuous-time analysis, and we suffer from low spectral resolution at lower frequencies as well. CHAPTER 4. DATA AND THEIR ANALYSIS 4.1.3 Storage After beat-by-beat sampling, each patient's R-R interval, systolic blood pressure, mean arterial blood pressure, and pulse pressure were stored in MATLAB matrices, indexed by the onset time of each beat. The patient data are named according to how they were originally stored by the previous author, and take the form CRC-XX- YY-Z (the delimiter "-" is used for demonstration and not included in the patient names). In the naming schema, XX is a numeric string, taking values between 01 and 14, corresponding to the patient number. Accordingly, YY is an alphabetical string, here either ST or SU, corresponding to standing and supine positions, respectively. The final character, Z, is reserved for the intervention associated with the recording, either C - control, A - atropine administered, P - propranolol administered, and for completeness, B - both atropine and propranolol administered. From here onwards we will use this notation and related shorthand to discuss patients. 4.2 Data Analysis In the time-domain, the interventions had the expected effect on the patients' signals - atropine drastically decreased R-R and its variability, and increased blood pressure slightly, and propranolol increased R-R interval length and decreased blood pressure very slightly. For this reason, we look to the frequency-domain for more interesting changes. 4.2. DATA ANALYSIS 4.2.1 Frequency-Domain Analysis We further wish to analyze the frequency-domain properties of our signals. For this, we introduce a new concept, the power spectral density (PSD). The PSD of a random process z, SX(e-ja), is given as the Fourier transform of the autocorrelation, R~x[ti, t2], defined as: R2x[t 1 , t 2 ] = E[xtl - Sxx(e-jQ) =F (R22) (4.1) J2] where E[-] is the probabilistic expectation operator. Further, if we assume the first and second moments of our process Xk do not change over time (or the time window that we are considering), then we call the process wide sense stationary (WSS) and can write the autocorrelation as follows: Rxx[k] = E[xt - S.(e-30) = Y(R~x) (4.2) Xt+k] We further define the cross-correlation of a two random processes Yk and Xk, Syx (e~ ), as the Fourier transform of the cross correlation, Ry., which, for a WSS process, is defined as: Ryx[k] = (4.3) E[yt - Xt+k] Assuming that Yk is produced by some filter h[k] applied to the process Xk, when that same filtering is applied to the autocorrelation of Xk, we can show by linearity that: h * Rx[k] = Ryx[k] (4.4) CHAPTER 4. DATA AND THEIR ANALYSIS Switching to the frequency-domain, we show this as a way to determine the transfer function H(e-j') from Xk to Yk by relating the input power spectrum Sx to the cross-power spectral density (CPSD), Syx: Syx(e-ja) = H(e-iQ)Sxx(e-jQ) <-+ H(e-0)= S" (4.5) S. (e-i") Because we are dealing with deterministic signals, we in practice compute the cross-spectral and power-spectral densities using a modified periodogram method [40], whereby the signal is divided into 8-10 overlapping segments, each with a 50% overlap. For each window of length N, we compute the N-1 N-point discrete Fourier transform (DFT(x) - e Xk -S k k n=O 0,..., N - 1) of the segment, and compute the autocorrelation of each segment, i, as $2 (e-'a) = Xi - (X,)* and the cross-correlation as Sy, (e-j) = Yj - (Xi)* (where X* is the complex-conjugate of X). We come to our final, averaged periodogram estimate of the cross-correlation and autocorrelation of our signals by taking the average over all segments i of the respective signals. Only after computing these averaged spectral density estimates do we compute the transfer function estimate, H(e-3 ) Parasympathetic Blockade For the following section, we will focus on only 3 patients undergoing parasympathetic blockade, and point out the salient features of their various waveforms in both time-domain and frequency-domain. We have chosen patients 02,07, and 11 because they best span the characteristics of parasympathetic blockade. Because our main interest is understanding the relationship be- 67 4.2. DATA ANALYSIS (a) CRC02ST (b) CRC07ST (c) CRC11ST Figure 4.1: Blood pressure power spectral density of standing atropine patients tween blood pressure, R-R interval, and the governing transfer function estimate between the two, we will examine the PSD of blood pressure, the R-R interval blood pressure CPSD, and the estimated transfer function between blood pressure and R-R interval. Blood Pressure Power Spectrum In the standing case, we see in Fig. 4.1 that the low frequency (lo-f) component of the blood pressure power spectrum is slightly decreased in height and lobe width after administration of atropine, but not noticeably. What is noticeable is that patients experience mid-f attenuation with the exception of patient 02, but all have diminished hi-f components. In the supine case, shown in Fig. 4.2, patient 02 now exhibits a strong mid-f attenuation as compared to the standing case, as does patient 11, but patient 07 seems to actually have an increase in mid-f magnitude. important to notice that the hi-f attenuation visible in Fig. It is 4.1 is all but gone now in the supine case. Because we take bpk as the exogenous input to our open loop model, we will not further analyzed the effects of atropine on the blood pressure signal. 68 CHAPTER 4. DATA AND THEIR ANALYSIS (a) CRC02SU (c) CRC11SU (b) CRC07SU Figure 4.2: Blood pressure power spectral density of supine atropine patients R-R interval-Blood Pressure Cross Power Spectrum A clearer pattern emerges when analyzing the R-R-BP CPSD of the parasympathetic blockade patients. In the standing case, Fig. 4.3, there is a marked drop in mid-f CPSD of all three patients after atropine is administered, but lo- f and hi-f are relatively unchanged. This mid-f divergence is even more pronounced in the supine case, Fig. 4.4, except, once again, in patient 07. Barring patient 07, we can attribute this more noticeable drop in Figs. 4.4a and 4.4c as compared to Figs. 4.3a and 4.3c to the diminished sympathetic control in the supine position compensating less for the loss of parasympathetic control. There is also a slight narrowing and shrinking of the lo-f peaks in both cases as well, and that is noticed in the decrease in R-R intervals shown in the time-domain. Estimated BP-RR Transfer Function As shown in Figs. 4.5 and 4.6, the control transfer function estimate appears quite noisy, with a complicated shape that seems unique to each patient, as expected. It is troublesome, however, that the shapes are so complex, as they do not seem well suited for fitting with the types of transfer functions our model can generate. However, 4.2. DATA ANALYSIS (b) CRC07ST (a) CRC02ST (c) CRC11ST Figure 4.3: R-R - Blood pressure cross power spectral density of standing atropine patients 77 (a) CRC02SU (b) CRC07SU (c) CRC11SU Figure 4.4: R-R - Blood pressure cross power spectral density of supine atropine patients 70 CHAPTER 4. DATA AND THEIR ANALYSIS (a) CRC02ST (b) CRC07ST (c) CRC11ST Figure 4.5: Estimated transfer function of standing atropine patients (a) CRC02SU (b) CRC07SU (c) CRC11SU Figure 4.6: Estimated transfer function of supine atropine patients the transfer function estimates after atropine is administered appear far more well behaved. In all cases, there is a sharp attenuation at all values in the mid-f range, with a slight ripple emerging again in the hi-f band. In the standing case, Fig. 4.5, there is also a pronounced lo-f peak that is not present in the supine case. In all cases, it appears as though the atropine hi-f ripple seems correlated to the bigger hi-f ripples in the control case. Sympathetic Blockade For the following section, we will focus on only 3 patients undergoing sympathetic blockade, and point out the salient features of their various waveforms in both time-domain and frequency-domain. We have chosen patients 01,05, and 14 because they best span the characteristics of sympathetic blockade. For the same reasons as the parasympathetic case, we will examine the PSD 4.2. DATA ANALYSIS (a) CRCO1ST 1 (b) CRC05ST (c) CRC14ST Figure 4.7: Blood pressure power spectral density of standing propranolol patients of blood pressure, the R-R interval blood pressure CPSD, and the estimated transfer function between blood pressure and R-R interval. Blood Pressure Power Spectrum The blood pressure PSD is relatively unchanged after administration of propranolol. In most cases, there is a widening of the lo-f band, and this is most noticeable in Fig. 4.8b. In addition, if we examine Figs. 4.8b, 4.7b, and 4.7a, we do see an increase in mid-f and hi-f components, though this change is neither systematic across all patients, nor attributable to only standing or supine patients. For this reason, it is quite challenging to distinguish between patients undergoing sympathetic blockade, and control patients from BP spectra alone. R-R interval-Blood Pressure Cross Power Spectrum Much like the blood pressure PSD, the R-R interval - blood pressure CPSD lacks the clear delineation between control and intervention cases! The lo-f peak is slightly wider after propranolol is administered, as can be seen in Figs. 4.9, and 4.10, but again the shape of the intervention CPSD follow that of the control CPSD closely, and there are no categorical changes in the mid-f and hi-f of 72 CHAPTER 4. DATA AND THEIR ANALYSIS (a) CRC01SU (b) CRC05SU (c) CRC14SU Figure 4.8: Blood pressure power spectral density of supine propranolol patients the signals after propranolol is administered. In fact, only patient 05 shows any real change in CPSD after propranolol is administered, with an increase in mid-f and high-f components. To determine whether this was simply a sampling error in choosing these three patients, we perform the same test on the remaining candidates, and noticed some cases mirroring the changes noted for patient 05, but with no clear trend across the majority of patients. One possible explanation of this dichotomy between patients within the propranolol group is that there is a stronger coupling between BP and RR after propranolol is administered (as shown by an increase in mid-f components of the cross spectrum) in those patients who have higher sympathetic tone under normal circumstances. The administration of propranolol in these patients should then "free" the mid-f components of parasympathetic control to couple BP and RR more strongly, as seen in Figs. 4.9b and 4.10b. Estimated BP-RR Transfer Function To round out the confusing and somewhat idiosyncratic spectral "story" of the propranolol patients, Figs. 4.11 and 4.12 again show that the BP-R-R transfer functions of patients do not change systematically after propranolol is administered. In Fig. 4.11c, . . ............................................... . A, 4.2. DATA ANALYSIS (a) CRC01ST (b) CRC05ST (c) CRC14ST Figure 4.9: R-R - Blood pressure cross power spectral density of standing propranolol patients (a) CRCO1SU (b) CRC05SU (c) CRC14SU Figure 4.10: R-R Blood pressure cross power spectral density of supine propranolol patients CHAPTER 4. DATA AND THEIR ANALYSIS (a) CRC01ST ( ) CRC05ST (c) CRC14ST Figure 4.11: Estimated transfer function of standing propranolol patients Estimated Tramfe, F-Im POprarz" Frequenc~y(1eatsi) (a) CRC01SU Frequency (keats) (b) CRC05SU (theelt) Frequeny (c) CRC14SU Figure 4.12: Estimated transfer function of supine propranolol patients we see a rise in lo-f components, but that is only partially matched by the change demonstrated in one other patient of our three, in Fig. 4.12b. The only possibly discernible pattern is seen in supine patients, Fig. 4.12, where hi-f components tend to rise after propranolol is administered. Admittedly, because of the noisiness of these transfer functions, none of these patterns are verifiable when examined across all patients. We then leave our analysis of propranolol with the hope that sympathetic blockade will still prove amenable to interpretation by our model, despite its seemingly unrecognizable effect on the frequency-domain characteristics of our signals. Chapter 5 Estimation of the One-Pole Model Coefficients Recall that our one-pole model of the baroreflex describes the R-R interval as a linear function of past R-R interval lengths, and blood pressure values according to the following recursion relationship: rrk = a0 - bpk + (a 1 - ao/)bp.1 - 0 - rrk_1 (5.1) We are now charged with the task of learning our model coefficients, and so we must understand the nature of the estimation problem we are facing. Because we are modeling a highly non-linear system, we expect that our model is not consistent, that is, there is no one choice of a 0 , ai, and 3 for which the above equality will hold for all time steps k. We explain this error in our model as coming from one of two sources: modeling error in our system, and measurement error in our signals, the latter we expect to be 76CHAPTER 5. ESTIMATION OF THE ONE-POLE MODEL COEFFICIENTS much smaller than the former. r'rk = O - bpk + (a1 - ao3)bpkl + / rrk1 + (5.2) 71k where we introduce an additional term for our residual error, j1 While we would like to limit the assumptions we make on ij, we expect that our modeling efforts and data processing have been rigorous enough to produce errors that are uncorrelated in time. Given this notion of residual error, we then must find a choice of our three coefficients that best satisfy an a priori optimality criteria that in some ways aims to explain this error, r/. 5.1 Optimality Criteria for Estimation Given a data set Y and a set of n estimators of Y, {Yi, Y2, ... , Yn}, how do we decide which Yi is the "best" estimator of Y? While statistical literature is rich in describing optimality constraints based on concepts such as maximum likelihood (ML), maximum entropy (MaxEnt), and maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) which hinge on the statistical properties of rj, I refer the reader to other texts to understand the motivation and theory behind these [17] [42]. Instead, we view our problem in terms of optimization of cost functions, as that lends to easier interpretation and less exposition, and save the formulation of these problems into 'standard' optimization problems for Appendix A. We begin by defining a cost function, J, of an estimator Y of 'We do not yet assume a distribution on r for reasons that become clear later. 5.1. OPTIMALITY CRITERIA FOR ESTIMATION data Y as a function of both data and estimator: J = f(Y, Yi) Since we are after a choice of Z' which (5.3) in some ways best describes Y, we require our cost function, J, to reflect some "error" in describing Y with Yi. Further, let us assume that our candidate estimators Yi are themselves functions of other, exogenous variables {X1 2,. . . , Xk} - g(X 1 , X 2 ,.. . , Xk). We also restrict our search space of cost function to convex functions of estimators because they afford us sufficient richness in shaping our error, and can guarantee that any optimal solution we discover is globally optimal. 5.1.1 L 2 cost function We define the L2-norm of a vector x as ||x||2 o. This we define the = Xi EX 42 cost function of our predictor as: J2 (Y, Yi)= Y - $z||2 (5.4) The L 2 -norm optimality criterion is often referred to as the Sum of Squares (S.O.S.) error-examining the expression for the squared J2 error should show this-and the estimator which minimizes this cost function is referred to as the minimum mean squared error (MMSE) solution, YMMSE (in the case that Y is a linear estimator, it can be further specified as YLMMSE)Further, if we restrict ourselves to examining linear estimators of a data vector y with input vectors x (not unlike our model), that is our candidate 78 CHAPTER 5. ESTIMATION OF THE ONE-POLE MODEL COEFFICIENTS estimators take the form, Qi (5.5) = Ax, with known, full-rank mixing matrix A, then we in fact have a unique optimal solution ,s. We show this in two steps, first expanding J2 as: -Y 2 y - Ax 122y-FyyAx = XTAAXT 2xTAy + yT 2l - (5.6) Then, differentiating this expression w.r.t. xi and setting the resulting expression equal to zero finds the optimal -2: dx +x(xT AT Axi-2xAT y-YY) -- AT Axi-2 ATYy = - si (ATA)--AT y (5.7) This estimator is of particular importance because it can be solved efficiently, in polynomial time, for full rank A. 5.1.2 L1 cost function If we change the L 2 -norm penalty on our residual to an L1 -norm penalty, where the L1 -norm of a vector x is 1x1 = S Xb xil our Ji cost function EX becomes: Ji(Y, Y) =||Y - Y>lli (5.8) where the optimal Yi is often called the minimizer of the sum of absolute errors (SAE). Again, restricting ourselves to linear estimators Q,of data vector y which take the form Axi for a known, full-rank A, the solution can be efficiently 5.1. OPTIMALITY CRITERIA FOR ESTIMATION found by solving a linear program (LP). The solution, zSAE, differs from iLAMSE in two major ways (which can be empirically verified): the residual vector (y - A.'SAE) generally has more zero elements than (y - ALMMSE), while the latter penalizes large residuals much more harshly and thus, has, on average, smaller values. 5.1.3 Loc cost function The third cost function we will explore when determining estimators is the ECx-norm criteria, where the Ec norm of a vector x is defined as | x.r = arg maxI xi with corresponding cost function: Joe(Y, fi) =|Y - yi| c, (5.9) The optimal cost-minimizing solution for this problem is often known as the minimax solution (zminimax in the linear case), and for convex functions of Xi (which the affine expression Axi necessarily is), we can solve this problem using efficient semidefinite program (SDP) solvers [9]. It can be empirically shown that the residual error of the minimax solution of our matrix equation tends to be bimodal, with modes spaced symmetrically around zero at 8minimax = ||y - Azminimaxr||. An intuitive explanation for this is that our criteria is agnostic towards residual values that are less than the minimax error, but place an infinite penalty on residuals that are greater than this minimax error. 80CHAPTER 5. ESTIMATION OF THE ONE-POLE MODEL COEFFICIENTS 5.2 The One-Pole Model of the Baroreflex as a Regression We first explore our baroreflex model as a regression of the time-series rrk with input variables bpk, bpk_1, and rrk-l. The problem is now reformulated as finding the best linear mixture of the three regressors of rrk, as: rr-k =ao - bpk + a* - bPk-1+13 -rrk_1 a* - a 1 -00 (5.10) We make the distinction to use a* because decoupling our regression coefficients makes the problem more interpretable. We will still interpret our coefficients ao, a1, and 1 by post-computing ai from estimated regression coefficients. For the following section, we will examine the results of estimation on standing control data. The same analysis was performed on all patients/interventions, and can be found in Appendix B. We will begin by defining metrics by which we will judge our methods. Measures of Cost Function Performance We are hoping to decide which of the three cost functions is most appropriate for our estimation problem. Our goal is to understand how the minimizing solution of one-cost function fares when measured against other cost functions. In a sense, we are trying to find out which cost function satisfies all other cost functions best. To do this, we define a new term, rp(Lq), the residual ratio of the Cp-norm cost of the Cq-norm minimizer: 5.2. THE ONE-POLE MODEL OF THE BAROREFLEX AS A REGRESSION81 rp(,1q) - fly - A_~pl Iq for p,q E {1,2,oo} (5.11) where .4 represents the optimal Cp-norm solution. Measures of Residual Error "Whiteness" Implicit in our discussion of cost functions and estimators is the notion that an optimal estimate for our model parameters produces a residual error signal that is "white". Here I will intuitively explain our notion of the whiteness of a random process. If we assume that a process follows a certain statistical distribution, we can call it "white" if knowing the value that the process takes at any time tells us nothing more than its assumed statistical properties. That is to say, the process at a time step k is only correlated with itself, and not with the process at any other time. Mathematically, for our residual error vectors , this means that Ree[k], the autocorrelation function defined in the previous chapter, should take the form o-,2[k], where oe is the standard deviation of the process. This noise is called "white" because its power spectral density (recall, the PSD is the Fourier transform of the autocorrelation) is flat, and contains equal power in all frequencies (akin to white light). This constrains our residuals to being zero-mean. But why is "whiteness" so important in our model noise and estimation residual? Assume that the unknown noise in our model is not white. Unless we have some intuition as to the spectral characteristics of our noise, we would then unable to distinguish its coloring from our process's, and so our estimates would seek to explain both signal and noise (we would overfit to the noise). For our residual, the explanation is simpler - given that we believe our noise to be white, any coloring in our 82CHAPTER 5. ESTIMATION OF THE ONE-POLE MODEL COEFFICIENTS residual spectra indicates components of our signal that our estimates do not explain, implying that our estimates and perhaps our model cannot describe our signal completely. Because we need to test these properties on real data, we must put our hats on, meaning that we must switch our notion of autocorrelation and PSD to estimates of the autocorrelation and PSD (and add "hats" to our signals to denote this!). We do this simply by changing our expectation operator of random process Xk, E[Xk], into the sample-mean operator on time-series N-1 Xk, E[x] Xk (we do not bother with the 'bias' of this estimator). k=-O Because we are now dealing with empirical estimates of our autocorrelation, we should relax our 'zero-mean' and 'single-impulse autocorrelation' characterizations of whiteness to 'near-zero mean' and 'rapidly decaying autocorrelation'. Further, due to the stationarity assumption on our residuals, we can say that our sample autocorrelation Ree[k] is bounded above by a monotonically decreasing in |kl. Therefore, we view the ratio R, [1] as a measure of the non-whiteness of our residual, and use it as a second metric to analyze our regression model. We call this metric the one-step error correlation,as it is theoretically (and almost numerically) equivalent to the often referenced correlation coefficient of the two signals, and so for the C-norm minimizing solution, we call this value p(L,). 5.3 Regression on Standing Control Patients The mean residual ratios across all standing control patients (Table B.1), shows the asymmetry of the various cost functions. It is clear that minimiz- 5.3. REGRESSION ON STANDING CONTROL PATIENTS 83 ers of both L 1-norm and L2-norm cost functions perform comparably well against each other. This is due to both cost functions placing a penalty on all non-zero errors. On the other hand, the L,-norm solution performs abysmally by the other two criteria's standards. The interesting asymmetry demonstrated by this is that the L1-norm and L2-norm minimizing solutions perform much worse against the L4-norm criterion than the L4-norm solution does against the Li-norm and L2-norm criteria. This is because they place varying emphasis on the maximal residual error - with the L2-norm placing a quadratic penalty against large norms forcing a smaller maximal residual than the L 1 -norm's linear penalty. This is already interesting, as this makes L4-norm minimization seem to be more versatile than the other two, but we must further examine the coloring of the residual. We present the one-step error correlation in Table B.2. In most patients, the L2-norm and L-norm solutions have "whiter" residuals (as measured by smaller absolute-value one-step correlations) than the LC-norm, with the L2-norm performing the best on the whole. This pattern of residual ratio and one-step error correlations is repeated in all other patient groups, and so it is at this point that we decide that all further explorations will be done using the least squares error criteria (42-norm). Table 5.1: Mean residual ratio for standing control patients Cost Fcn/Res.Rat. r(L 2) r(L1) r(Lc) L2 1.00 1.02 1.77 4L 1.04 1.39 1.00 1.46 2.34 1.00 EC 84CHAPTER 5. ESTIMATION OF THE ONE-POLE MODEL COEFFICIENTS Table 5.2: One-step error correlation for standing control patients Pat. No. CRCO1STC CRC02STC CRC03STC CRC04STC CRC05STC CRC06STC CRC07STC CRC08STC CRC09STC CRC1OSTC CRC11STC CRC12STC CRC13STC CR.C14STC 5.4 p(12 2) P(L1) -0.02 0.26 0.20 0.01 0.02 -0.02 -0.16 0.28 0.57 0.36 0.41 0.22 0.29 0.22 -0.06 0.23 0.20 -0.08 0.06 -0.08 -0.22 0.26 0.56 0.37 0.41 0.23 0.29 0.23 p(Lx) -0.06 0.65 0.10 -0.12 0.13 0.40 0.51 0.27 0.68 0.34 0.42 0.45 0.29 0.45 Motivation for and Setup of the Windowed LMMSE So far, we have discovered that the LMMSE solution is very well suited for our problem: it is guaranteed to have a single, globally optimal solution; its solution can be found analytically in polynomial time; and we have just shown that it performs well when measured against a variety of error criteria. The next logical step is then to look "under the hood" and examine the estimates and residuals produced by this method a bit more closely. We begin our examination again with standing control patients, as they seem most amenable (in terms of estimation residual) . The results of this experiment are presented in Table 5.3. At a glance, our parameters are, by our definition, 5.4. MOTIVATION FOR AND SETUP OF THE WINDOWED LMAISE85 physiologically reasonable, with only one instance of a negative estimate of a 1 . In addition, we note that our estimates of a 1 are small compared to ao, hovering around 1. We will return to this fact later. Because of the promising results from the standing propranolol case, we shift our focus to the supine control data. Based on the results of Saul, et al. [46], we expect that the patients' sympathetic action will be muted as compared to the standing patients. Since our estimates of a 1 are already so small, and our estimates of 3 are relatively large, we would expect that the change from standing to supine position will cause either a further reduction in ai, but likely a reduction in the feedback gain 3. The results of this experiment are summarized in Table 5.4. It is immediately apparent that our estimates of ai are physiologically unreasonable. This is disheartening, as we would expect the control data to be better suited for estimation than the corresponding intervention data, and so if we are having such serious issues already, then we can assume to have very little hope at identifying our parameters on the more physiologically interesting/important intervention data. We then look to the final column of our tables, to see if they can shed some light on this problem. Luckily, a pattern emerges. In cases where the mean of the estimated a 1 is negative, it appears as though the residual error of the estimation is higher than in cases where a1 is "reasonable." Perhaps the estimated coefficients are unreasonable when the problem does not lend itself to estimation as shown by a high mean squared-residual. Without delving deeper into this line of analysis, we propose an intuitive solution to our problem and first examine its performance. 86CHAPTER 5. ESTIMATION OF THE ONE-POLE MODEL COEFFICIENTS Table 5.3: Estimated coefficients and RMS residual error for standing control patients Pat. No. CRCO1STC CRC02STC CRC03STC CRC04STC CRC05STC CRC06STC CRC07STC CRC08STC CRC09STC CRC1OSTC CRC11STC CRC12STC CRC13STC CRC14STC do (mrnmg) di (mmmg) 3.24 0.81 2.88 0.92 16.09 0.89 2.10 8.31 1.99 2.26 1.13 2.44 3.35 2.44 0.44 1.03 0.55 1.86 -1.08 1.61 1.08 0.68 0.95 0.99 0.91 0.56 0.86 0.56 i3 0.87 0.74 0.87 0.63 0.84 0.70 0.79 0.90 0.84 0.84 0.81 0.89 0.76 0.89 RMS(8) (ms) 20.63 31.06 17.45 31.97 78.61 52.54 37.84 23.79 16.89 20.14 13.46 21.06 35.24 21.06 5.4. MOTIVATION FOR AND SETUP OF THE WINDOWED LMMSE87 Table 5.4: Estimated coefficients and RMS residual error for supine control patients Pat. No. CRC01SUC CRC02SUC CRC03SUC CRC04SUC CRC05SUC CRC06SUC CRC07SUC CRC08SUC CRC09SUC CRC1OSUC CRC11SUC CRC12SUC CRC13SUC CRC14SUC do (m 8.78 8.34 11.44 10.06 22.07 10.73 12.22 11.09 8.74 11.50 5.39 10.17 10.55 10.17 ) di (ms) -0.07 -0.38 -0.43 -0.72 -3.43 -1.27 -1.52 0.33 0.06 -0.26 -0.00 -0.30 -0.47 -0.30 0.83 0.79 0.81 0.72 0.73 0.62 0.62 0.85 0.87 0.87 0.91 0.86 0.85 0.86 RMS(8) (ms) 28.57 55.28 34.73 52.36 96.43 72.50 75.20 22.12 27.24 33.37 25.97 41.25 45.32 41.25 88CHAPTER 5. ESTIMATION OF THE ONE-POLE MODEL COEFFICIENTS 5.5 Windowed Least Squares Regression If the issue with our estimation is that our noise is colored or non-stationary, then we should look to ways to get around this. In order to do this, we must examine why we assumed our noise was stationary and white. It is obvious that blood pressure and heart rate are time-varying signals whose mean and variance are complex functions of an individual's state and thus non-stationary. We assumed well-behavedness (stationarity, etc.) of our signals/noise because our signals were measured in a controlled setting, and over a short enough time window that no other slow-acting blood pressure control mechanisms (RAAS, chemoreceptors, etc.) are significantly affecting our system. In stating this, we are shedding light on a major problem - if we employ this method on progressively longer signals, then these assumptions should get progressively weaker, and thus, estimation should get progressively worse. So then even if our estimates had been well behaved, we still should have been explicit in our formulation of the estimation problem.The natural progression of this idea then, is that we should limit the number of beats over which we estimate our coefficients. We will call this stretch of data our "window", and so dividing our data into segments of this length is windowing. Let us begin with the simplest form of windowing - divide our data into M non-overlapping windows of length N, and our estimated model coefficients will be a piecewise-constant function with at most M - 1 changes. We are guaranteed to do no worse if we window our data sample than if we did not (if choosing one estimate is the optimal choice, than each window is guaranteed to produce estimates equal to this value, due to the global optimality of the LMMSE), so then the question is, does windowing perform better? If so, by M. .... ......... M 5.5. WINDOWED LEAST SQUARES REGRESSION RMS Ri l Nb tl W s CRC1T RC085 RMReso v.NubrWfD Winoe-C RMS ReFdal NuneroDatWi sT - CR11l Figure 5.1: RMS residual error for (Clockwise from Top Left) CRC01STC, CRC07SUC, CRC08SUP, CRC11STA how much? RMS residual errors as a function of number of windows for 4 patients are shown in Fig. 5.1 . Since the number of samples per window is in- versely related to the number of windows a signal is divided into, a natural interpretation of these results is that, there is consistently a downward linear trend in the RMS residual estimation error as coefficients are estimated from progressively shorter windows. The next step is to further examine whether our coefficients are reasonable, but before we concern ourselves with this, we should understand the "costs" associated with lowering our residual. As most tradeoffs are, at best, zero-sum, we expect that we are doing worse in some aspect of estimation due to windowing. As it happens, that area is numerical stability. 90CHAPTER 5. ESTIMATION OF THE ONE-POLE MODEL COEFFICIENTS 5.5.1 Numerical Stability When we say numerical stability, we are really interested in the effect errors in both our input matrix Ak and output matrix bk have on our final estimates .24 (because we window our signal, our matrices A and b are now time-variant and thus, indexed on their final beat index). Given an equation Ax = b, with b being the sum of its true value b and a measurement error e, we write the ratio of the relative "stretch" induced by the error, IA ell2 to the contribution Ilie 112 of the total vector b (measured in the same way). Thus, the ratio is given by: j A-1e||2 |b| 2 | C |2 ||A- 1 b\\ 2 We define the condition number t(A) to be the maximum of this of this ratio, which is ||A- 1 |2 - ||A\\2 . We can avoid dealing with matrix norms by going through the algebra to show that K(A) is related to the singular values of A in the following way: K(A) = oma(A) 0-min (A) In our application, this measure of the maximal effect of errors in our measurement vector will serve as our metric for numerical stability, with large condition numbers implying a poorly conditioned system. We present the effect windowing has on condition number in Fig. 5.2. The downward linear trend in RMS residual error is mirrored by an equally notably upward linear trend in the condition number as the data is subdivided into more windows. This is not too concerning for our current estimation setup and data, but it is conceivable that with stationary signals and increasingly noisy data, our solution is increasingly vulnerable to measurement errors. While we do not . .. .. ..... 5.6. REG ULARIZATION M F' AM 0DmW CC S erD-t Wino -- CACOSSU RMS Conio v.Num- Figure 5.2: RMS condition numbers v. window length for (Clockwise from Top Left) CRC01STC, CRC07SUC, CRC08SUP, CRC11STA expect for A to ever be singular given N > 15 2, it is all too possible that A is near singular, and this is worrisome. To counteract this, we introduce the concept of regularization. 5.6 Regularization Regularization is the process by which additional information is introduced when solving an ill-posed or numerically unstable inverse problem (like ours) in order to find a solution or prevent overfitting to noise. We then write the 2 We have experimentally determined this as a safe lower bound on window size. 92CHAPTER 5. ESTIMATION OF THE ONE-POLE MODEL COEFFICIENTS regularized minimization problem of the matrix equation Ax = b as: minimize : ||Ax - b p + |f(x)q where f(x) is an arbitrary function called the regularizationterm. We restrict our discussion to affine regularization terms of the form Fx + A, and for simplicity, we set p, q = 2. Now this problem can be formulated as an LMMSE problems, and has all of the desirable efficiency and solvability properties that we have discussed previously. For our problem, we have a prior belief that our estimates should remain relatively constant between estimation windows. Large changes in coefficients indicate a significant change in the body's physiology, and since these generally evolve slowly (at fastest, on the order of minutes), we penalize changes in estimates between successive windows, as hF(xk - Xkl-i)2, meaning our final estimation is the solution to the following equation: F A [ k= (5.12) FXk._1 b Numerical Motivation for Regularization The numerical issues of our original formulation can be viewed as an issue with the singularity of the pseudo-inverse of A, specifically with the term: (ATA)- 1. If A is near- singular, we expect that this inversion is numerically unstable. In our regularized formulation, the analog for this term becomes (ATA + FF)-1. Since we should choose a non-singular F with sufficiently large eigenvalues to have a true regularizing effect on the final solution, we are guaranteed to have a 5.6. REG ULARIZATION numerically well posed inverse problem (we must actually choose a positivesemidefinite F for reasons that will soon become clear). The natural question that arises then is, what effect does this have on our residual errors, conditioning, and solution of our problem? We present results for these questions for patient CRC05STC in Fig. 5.3. These patterns are reflected in a similar manner across all patient classes. 5.6.1 Numerical Conditioning We see that there is a drastic change in the condition number of the minimization problem when switching from normal LMMSE (/-.) to regularized LMMSE solutions (r,). In both cases, the variance of the condition number increases as window size decreases as shown by the distance between the +/- o bands, moreso in the normal LMMSE setup. What is equally interesting is that, while the K, is considerably smaller than , for all window lengths, its magnitude increases with window length, while r, decreases. Further, this increase in K, seems extremely smooth. To explain this, we look at the effect that regularization has on our singular values. Assuming that F takes the take form (I where I is the 3x3 identity matrix, the SVD of the matrix the form: ai2 + (2 ofi (5.13) And so for small singular values, the regularized singular values tend to (2, meaning that, in a poorly conditioned matrix with Umin << (2, the condition number smaller than amran. /, tends to ~ ", max >> (2 and which is considerably In our case, for small windows, omax becomes increas- 94CHAPTER 5. ESTIMATION OF THE ONE-POLE MODEL COEFFICIENTS ingly small, and so Kr tends to unit magnitude, and for large window size, the condition number rises towards the unregularized case, with the above regularizing effect slowing this convergence to a sub-linear growth rate. For sufficiently large windows, I expect Kr -+ K, though I have yet to perform this experimentation on real data. Because we are not explicitly plotting singular values and how they change with window size, this is only a plausible explanation that I am proposing for further examination. Residual Error The RMS residual errors between regularized and normal LMMSE seems to behave similarly. Before this experiment, our fear was that regularization would have a significant, negative effect on the 'goodness' of our model's estimation, but as shown in Fig. 5.3, this does not seem to be the case at all. It is interesting to note that the residual error is not a linear function as we had seen in Fig. 5.1. This discrepancy is due to what exactly the images are depicting. We could construct Fig. 5.1 by sampling Fig. 5.3 at the ends of each interval denoted by the dotted black lines. Coefficients Our assumption is that regularization is primarily a numerical safeguard, and to allow us to separate changes in our estimates caused by real changes in the data from those cause by poor numerics. As a result, we should expect that the coefficients reflect these intentions. At a glance, both regularized and standard LMMSE seem to converge to the same RMS solutions for windows greater than around 30 beats, with the regularized solution having smaller estimate variances. For window sizes between 15 and 30 beats, there seems to be a difference in the solution that the LMMSE finds and the one that the regularized estimator finds. Because the variance 5.6. REG ULARIZATION bands around the solutions extend to physiologically unreasonable values, we will not explore this difference further, and claim that neither method finds adequate solutions for windows of length less than 30. 5.6.2 Statistical Motivation for Regularization We have briefly explained the numerical reasoning for why to regularize, but we have not properly motivated how to choose our regularization parameters. In this section, I will try and provide a basic understanding of the statistics that describe these types of problems (and briefly, of the LMMSE solution). Let us return to our time-varying matrix equation AkX ~ bk. Assuming that bk was generated from an equation of that form, then our LMMSE solution would, in fact, converge to the true value of z4. Since it does not, we must introduce noise to our system, which now takes the form Akxk = bk + rik. Assuming q is from independent, identically distributed draws from a zeromean Gaussian process with unknown variance or. Then we view finding the optimal estimate of x as finding the Xk for which the residual (bk - Akxk) is most likely to be from i.i.d. draws from the N(0, o ) distribution. For simplicity, if we take the log of the distribution function of i,, substituting (bk - AkXk) in for q, our log-likelihohod maximization takes the form: maximize: 1 -2 I|bk - Akxk 2 Discarding the multiplicative constant introduced by the variance, we have the canonical LMMSE solution for fits in to this picture z_.Now I will explain how regularization 0 ...... ........... .... .. .............................. . .................................... .......... .. .... 96CHAPTER 5. ESTIMATION OF THE ONE-POLE MODEL COEFFICIENTS Mm C-11tion N-ba V, Window Leng1h RMS Rsi v. flMS Reskluel Errv v.Winkow Lenglh Errr WiNdW Lingd Pr 7 o'v Window Length v.Window Leng_ Wndow Length o'Window Lengh ., Window L h indow L.n OWindow Length ndoL Window L-ng0 Figure 5.3: (Top to Bottom) RMS condition number, residual error, and estimated coefficients v. window length (beats) for CRC05STC using (Left) LMMSE and (Right) regularized LMMSE methods. RMS values are shown in blue, with +/- o bands in red. The dotted black lines represents the number of windows used in estimation, starting at the far right with 1 window, and increasing by 1 window per line 5.6. REG ULARIZATION Bayesian Underpinnings Assume that our estimates x are sequential samples from the following random process: Xk = Xk-1 + yk where Yk is a random variable that corresponds to a physiological 'event' e.g. standing from a supine position, exercise, valsalva maneuver, excitement. We call -y a random variable and not a deterministic input because from our perspective of looking only at the time-series bp and rr, we cannot know what a subject is doing. Even if we know what the individual is doing, we have no idea of how that should affect our coefficients. For this reason, we introduce events as a random variable -y. Further, we expect that a person is almost constantly experiencing these events, but they are generally small in nature, such as eating food, or laughing at the television, so as to have minimal effect on the state of the baroreflex gains. We do not, however, rule out the possibility that in very rare instances, there could be events that trigger an extreme change in the physiology. For this reason, we model our 'y as being i.i.d samples from a multivariate Gaussian distribution, AN(0, Z4). It is not altogether obvious that these samples are i.i.d., but I make the weak argument that we have no better understanding of this mechanism, and are subsequently forced to assume this for simplicity. We now realize that, knowing our previous estimate Xk1, we have a prior distribution on our current coefficient, <r(Xk; Xk - 1), that allows us to switch from ML estimation to MAP estimation, where the a posteriori probability 98CHAPTER 5. ESTIMATION OF THE ONE-POLE MODEL COEFFICIENTS we are maximizing is: ;7xk-_1) Pr (xxk -- Pr('qkXk; Xk_1) .,w(xk; Xk_1) r(7k Pr(lk) Again, taking the log-likelihood and disregarding the denominator, we find that the maximizing the following quadratic form: - -1/ 2 (bk - Akxk) | - which leads to solving the system in - 1 / 2 (Xk - Xk_1)||1 (5.14) (5.12). Note that if we are using a statistical argument, we must explicitly state our assumptions on the form of E, and E,, as opposed to in the standard LMMSE setup. Regularization Parameter Choice Through experimentation, it was found that a good structure for our regularization matrix F was diag(100, 100, 1000). This choice gave us a good tradeoff between residual error and estimate smoothness. To better understand why these numbers work so well, a more obvious interpretation appeals to the statistical arguments presented above. Statistical Interpretation Because of our i.i.d assumptions on our noise, we write their covariance matrices as: Ell = diag(a , o , ... o12) E2 diag(or, 1 27) (5.15) (5.15) 5.6. REGULARIZATION From Tables 5.3 and 5.4, we see that the standard least squares solution has an RMS residual error of around 20-30ms. Since we have already discussed that the residual in the standard LS setup is, in fact, a direct ML estimate of r/, we then have an idea of the upper bound of o., which we set at 50 ms. For our estimate variance values, we must make a few educated guesses. Because ao and ai generally fall in the range (0, 15) and we would like to think they have the same order of magnitude, we set their variances equal. We guess that their standard deviation is around 3%-5%of their magnitude, and so a safe guess is , ,1 = o2 =0.5 . We make the same guess for ,3, but noting that its estimated value is usually one order of magnitude less than those of the a's, we guess o,3= 0.05. We relate these values back to the regularization matrix as: F = oq -diag( 1 1 2 7,1 '7 ,2 1 2 ) '7y,3 = diag(100, 100, 1000) Long-Tailed Distributions and the L1 penalty If we return to the assumption we made on the distribution of -Y, we can change -y to have a long tailed distribution. This will allow for larger onestep changes in our parameters. If we specifically chose a Laplace prior distribution, we would change the maximization problem to: -||q 1 / 2 (bk - Akxk) 2 -|E-- 1 2 / (X - Xk-l)f This would change our problem to the much talked about C1 norm regularized problem, which would be a hybridized cross between the LASSO model selector and total variation signal reconstruction (TVR) [51] [10] [11]. 100CHAPTER 5. ESTIMATION OF THE ONE-POLE MODEL COEFFICIENTS The problem remains a convex optimization problem with the same globaloptimality of the LMMSE, but now becomes a quadratically constrained quadratic program (QCQP). The main benefit to using this noise model is that it expects that successive estimates will often remain constant, but that large changes are penalized less strongly 3. In some sense, this may afford us a more accurate description of our model, although the increased computational complexity seems excessive for whatever benefit we might hope to see. Without any further discussion, I leave it to future work to assess the merits of this method. 5.7 Further Consideration for On-line Estimation Algorithm The first issue I have avoiding discussing is choosing an initial x0 . Because we would like to start with the "best" possible x0 , we can perform standard LMMSE on the first window, and then estimate forward using regularized LMMSE. 5.7.1 Sliding Window Regression for Improved TimeDomain 'Resolution' Originally when we introduce the idea of windowed regression, we allow for no overlap between successive windows. We also assumed changes in the sympathetic and parasympathetic gains, and thus our model coefficients, occurs 3 They are penalized absolutely instead of quadratically. 5.8. SPECTRAL ESTIMATION: A BRIEF DISCUSSION 101 slowly and over the course of a few windows. In our no-overlap formulation, this would be discovered as a series of step changes, and we would not have the ability to watch the evolution of these changes. Further, if we introduce a regularization term that penalizes changes in successive estimates, might have other strange behavior in our estimates as they are now minimizing two potentially opposing criteria. Since we had no real reason in imposing the no-overlap condition, we reverse it in favor of overlap. In fact, there is no reason why we should not employ maximal overlap (N - 1 beat overlap for an N beat windows). This is essentially a modified version of the popular on-line estimation scheme, recursive least squares (RLS), which is itself a simple form of the Kalman filter [29]. Because these are such well studied topics, we will not discuss the merits of switching to this formulation, save for the fact that it should improve our ability to track changes that evolve over time. Further, our regularization term seems more appropriate for this formulation, as we do expect very small changes in successive estimates on a beat-to-beat time scale. 5.8 Spectral Estimation: A Brief Discussion As another method to overcome the difficulty posed by the poor numerics of the input time-series rrk and bpk, we develop a frequency-domain identification scheme. We write the discrete-time transfer function of (3.17) as: H(d Q) Srrbp(e) Sbp,b (ej") -- ao + (ai - ao3)e 1 - f3e-i(516 (5.16) 102CHAPTER 5. ESTIMATION OF THE ONE-POLE MODEL COEFFICIENTS where the power spectra Srr,jp(ej") and Sb,,b,(ej') are defined as in (4.1). The method by which these spectra are computed for our data takes a bit of care-as we should employ methods such as periodogram averaging and Welch's method to tame the noisiness of that plague FFT spectral estimates [38]. Assuming for the moment that the spectra are correctly estimated, using our knowledge of the "peakedness" of the energy spectrum, we can sample the transfer function at N specifically chosen frequencies, and construct the following system of equations, which can be solved, again, by a standard LMMSE approach. 1 e-j01 H(eiQl)e-ij 1 e6 P2 H(eij2)-jQ2 H(einN)e -jN H(eiQl) H(e2) 1 ai - 1 e-ijN 1 - ao =)(5.17) _ H(e3 N) This method is somewhat similar to a weighted principal component analysis method discussed by Xiao et al. [54], and while its derivation is quite simple, the optimal frequency subsampling might be a much harder problem to tackle. To truly examine the pros and cons of this method, we would have to dedicate a great deal of time and analysis to understand how specific spectral estimation setups effect our coefficient estimates, and derive optimality criteria to choose a suitable method. For this reason, I will not continue with this estimation scheme. I will, however, mention that preliminary estimation trials with this method produced physiologically reasonable, stable estimates without any regularization or complex power spectrum estimation 5.9. FINAL THOUGHTS ON ESTIMATION 103 techniques. 5.9 Final Thoughts on Estimation The discussion presented in the above chapter is by no means the final word on estimation parameters from physiological models. In truth, I intended it to be demonstrative of the issues, both mathematical and numerical, that plague system identification and model parameters identification. In this work, I had the benefit of being presented a model, and thus only facing an estimation problem. Had I not been in such a fortunate position, I would have first needed to attempt model order identification, another equally if not more challenging issue to navigate. The upside of tackling the problem first as a model order identification problem, and then an estimation problem for the chosen model order, is that perhaps we would have found an equally estimable but more accurate model of the forward loop of the baroreflex. But given the circumstances, I have attempted to lay out an argument in this chapter for the use of simple, intuitive modeling as a viable method to approach modeling the baroreflex. 104 CHAPTER 5. ESTIMATION OF THE ONE-POLE MODEL COEFFICIENTS Chapter 6 Preliminary Results We have so far been very carefully developing a model and estimation scheme to explain the arterial baroreflex. Now we are faced with testing our methods against the patient data that we so painstakingly analyzed in Chapter 2. As was mentioned in the previous chapter, we must make it clear that our estimates are reasonable and worth analyzing. 6.1 Effects of Regularization on Estimates Using a variant of the regularized estimation setup', we examine supine control patients again to see if our estimation produces physiologically reasonable estimates. Because we are using maximal overlap between successive windows, our RMS error is in fact, the mean RMS error across all windows. For comparison, we present the standard LMMSE coefficients and RMS error again, this time using maximal overlap as well. The results for the regularas max(zk-1,0) to try and enforce- in a 'soft-constraint' sense -nonnegativity of our coefficients. 'We update Xk 105 106 CHAPTER 6. PRELIMINARY RESULTS ized setup are shown in Table 6.1, and for comparison, the standard LMMSE results are presented in Table 6.2. As expected, our regularized estimates result in higher RMS errors, but the increase is at most 7 ms! On the other hand, we see that the estimates from our regularized setup are all physiologically reasonable, as opposed to the standard LMMSE solution which results in ai near or below zero. We also note a systematic decrease in the magnitude of ao and 0 when regularizing our estimates. it is altogether possible that without regularization, our estimation overvalues ao. Stated in another way, if we try and estimate parasympathetic and sympathetic contributions independently at each window without examining their previous state, we consistently overestimate parasympathetic control. We demonstrate this principle by examining the percentage sympathetic response (PSR). Recall that the PSR is the ratio of the sympathetic DC gain to the total system DC gain, PSR = a1/(1 - 0) a o + a1/(1 - 3) Here, we are forced to use the absolute value of ai in defining the PSR, as the PSR of the standard LMMSE estimates would have a nonsensical meaning otherwise (recall that this was the basis for us pursuing regularization techniques). The results of this experiment are shown in Table 6.3. It is then apparent that without regularization, ao subsumes a disproportionately large amount of the baroreflex we are aiming to capture, and accounting for the temporal continuity of our estimates via regularization increases the importance we place on the long-tailed sympathetic control mechanism. We then see if this pattern is consistent across all patient classes. 6.1. EFFECTS OF REGULARIZATION ON ESTIMATES 107 Table 6.1: Regularized mean coefficients and RMS error for supine control patients Pat. No. CRCO1SUC CRC02SUC CRC03SUC CRC04SUC CRC05SUC CRC06SUC CRC07SUC CRC08SUC CRC09SUC CRC10SUC CRC11SUC CRC12SUC CRC13SUC CRC14SUC 6.1.1 6o diZg lg 2.83 3.57 4.12 3.85 6.73 4.04 4.59 6.58 4.42 4.24 1.53 3.17 3.08 3.17 1.83 1.48 2.14 1.64 1.84 1.61 1.83 3.23 2.19 2.28 1.02 1.81 1.75 1.81 # RMS(a) (ms) 0.67 0.47 0.55 0.50 0.33 0.48 0.47 0.51 0.53 0.56 0.72 0.61 0.60 0.61 29.00 51.37 33.86 44.78 98.93 68.50 62.40 21.73 28.54 34.14 24.02 40.24 45.81 40.24 Regularization and PSR Across All Patient Classes Because of the interesting results obtained by examining the PSR of supine control patients, we wish to see if these types of changes occur in all patient classes. Results for supine patients is presented in Table 6.4, and for standing patients, in Table 6.5. It is clear that supine control patients were exceptional in that the effect of regularization was so noticeable on their estimates. This change is certainly not seen in the standing control case, or in either atropine cases. The only other class of patient where we do see such a dramatic effect from regularization is in the patients administered propranolol. But in these patients, the change we see is perhaps not the change we had hoped for. Propranolol you will recall, is a sympathetic blocker, and so the fact 108 CHAPTER 6. PRELIMINARY RESULTS Table 6.2: Standard LMMSE mean coefficients and RMS error for supine control patients Pat. No. CRCO1SUC CRC02SUC CRC03SUC CRC04SUC CRC05SUC CRC06SUC CRC07SUC CRC08SUC CRC09SUC CRC10SUC CRCiSUC CRC12SUC CRC13SUC CRC14SUC do 8.38 7.70 9.70 9.26 21.33 11.13 10.65 12.25 8.26 10.63 5.94 10.05 9.25 10.05 g1 di, 0.09 0.30 -0.11 -0.35 -4.39 -1.71 -0.96 0.42 0.27 -0.11 0.03 -0.43 -0.01 -0.43 /3 RMS( ) (ms) 0.75 0.62 0.69 0.71 0.62 0.55 0.66 0.76 0.75 0.76 0.85 0.70 0.77 0.70 26.97 48.20 32.52 41.30 91.90 64.41 57.54 17.70 25.48 30.56 21.89 37.72 43.66 37.72 that regularization increases the PSR of patients given propranolol from the standard LMMSE solution seems odd. If we only look down the regularized column though, we do in fact see a drop in PSR from the control case, and so we are still capturing the effect of the drug, albeit less noticeably. We again see that the effect of the exponential decay of the sympathetic response has a greater total effect than we would have found otherwise. It is also nice that the PSR increases when atropine is administered, and the effects of both propranolol and atropine are stronger in the standing position, in agreement with what Saul et al. noted as increased sympathetic action in the standing position. Thus, we can conclude that our model does in fact properly capture the physiological changes of the various drug interventions. 109 6.2. ESTIMATE TIME-SERIES Table 6.3: PSR for supine control patients Pat. No. CRCO1SUC CRC02SUC CRC03SUC CRC04SUC CRC05SUC CRC06SUC CRC07SUC CRC08SUC CRC09SUC CRC1OSUC CRC11SUC CRC12SUC CRC13SUC CRC14SUC Mean 6.2 Standard LMMSE PSR 0.21 0.28 0.16 0.22 0.34 0.22 0.19 0.20 0.15 0.16 0.12 0.26 0.27 0.26 0.22 Regularized LMMSE PSR 0.66 0.46 0.55 0.49 0.31 0.45 0.45 0.51 0.52 0.55 0.71 0.61 0.59 0.61 0.54 Estimate Time-Series Now that we are comfortable that our estimation is producing meaningful results, we can examine the estimates more carefully. While we could do this by simulating BP and RR time series, we save that for future work and instead focus on interpreting real data. An example of the estimated coefficient time-series is presented in Fig. 6.1. We then ask whether or not the smoothness we have imposed is artificial, or if coefficients indeed remain stable over long stretches of time. To test this, we perform the following experiment: estimate coefficients over the first 100 heart beats and compute their mean values. Freeze these mean values, and compute the one-step prediction error using these frozen coefficients over the remaining time series. 110 CHAPTER 6. PRELIMINARY RESULTS Table 6.4: PSR for supine patients Pat. No. CRCO1SUC CRC02SUC CRC03SUC CRC04SUC CRC05SUC CRC06SUC CRC07SUC CRC08SUC CRC09SUC CRC1OSUC CRC11SUC CRC12SUC CRC13SUC CRC14SUC Mean CRC02SUA CRC04SUA CRC06SUA CRC07SUA CRC09SUA CRC11SUA CRC13SUA Mean CRCO1SUP CRC03SUP CRC05SUP CRC08SUP CRC10SUP CRC12SUP CRC14SUP Mean Standard LMMSE PSR 0.21 0.27 0.16 0.22 0.34 0.22 0.19 0.20 0.16 0.16 0.25 0.30 0.28 0.30 0.23 0.80 0.88 0.82 0.50 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.82 0.23 0.24 0.39 0.17 0.18 0.32 0.32 0.27 Regularized LMMSE PSR 0.66 0.46 0.55 0.49 0.31 0.45 0.45 0.51 0.52 0.55 0.71 0.61 0.59 0.61 0.53 0.55 0.90 0.97 0.61 0.90 0.92 0.93 0.83 0.37 0.54 0.17 0.42 0.48 0.49 0.48 0.42 111 6.2. ESTIMATE TIME-SERIES Table 6.5: PSR for standing patients Pat. No. CRCO1STC CRC02STC CRC03STC CRC04STC CRC05STC CRC06STC CRC07STC CRC08STC CRC09STC CRC1OSTC CRC11STC CRC12STC CRC13STC CRC14STC Mean CRC02STA CRC04STA CRC06STA CRC07STA CRC09STA CRC11STA CRC13STA Mean CRCO1STP CRC03STP CRC05STP CRC08STP CRC1OSTP CRC12STP CRC14STP Mean Standard LMMSE PSR 0.60 0.85 0.68 0.83 0.28 0.71 0.76 0.47 0.79 0.76 0.81 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.68 0.96 0.91 0.97 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.92 0.95 0.34 0.46 0.27 0.37 0.70 0.54 0.47 0.45 Regularized LMMSE PSR 0.75 0.74 0.71 0.61 0.50 0.69 0.71 0.68 0.76 0.76 0.75 0.80 0.63 0.80 0.71 0.97 0.97 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.59 0.67 0.36 0.59 0.74 0.73 0.73 0.63 . .......... .. ................ . ..... .................................. CHAPTER 6. PRELIMINARY RESULTS 112 00 0 so -- j I 5 0 3200 300 30 400 450 Soo 250 300 350 400 450 S00 250 330 350 400 4150 500 0 1 0 so 100 150 1030 13 00 006 0 0 0 Figure 6.1: Estimated coefficient magnitude v. time (beats) If the coefficients are indeed stable, then this error should remain small. On the whole, we found that this was indeed the case. One particular example of this can be seen in Fig. 6.2. 6.3 Examination of Predicted Transfer Function We would like to return to the line of frequency domain analysis we introduced in Chapter 2. It is not of particular interest to compare our model's implied transfer function to the empirical data transfer function as we have already shown that ours will be insufficient at capturing the empirical form. ... ........... . .... ....... ...... _-..... .... .. ................ .... ....... - .. ....... ... I-.. - .................. I'll, .............................. ........................... .................. .. .... .... 6.3. EXAMINATION OF PREDICTED TRANSFER FUNCTION 113 00 1500 -00 400' 0 100 200 300 400 600 Beats(ms) Figure 6.2: Prediction error test. End of estimation/start of prediction denoted by dotted black line Instead, we look to a way to compare changes in our transfer functions across patient classes. We must then define a class transferfunction. Since we are only interested in the shape of the transfer function, we can normalize our coefficients such that we have unit parasympathetic gain (dividing a 1 and ao by ao achieves this). Now that the gains are normalized, we can take the mean of the coefficients for each patients in a particular class as the class estimates, and estimate our transfer function from that. We present the class transferfunctions for supine and standing patients in Fig. 6.3. The effects of the various interventions are consistent between standing and supine positions. Administration of atropine consistently attenuates high frequencies and amplifies low frequencies. Propranolol has a similar effect, but to a less extent than atropine. In the standing case, the transfer function gains in- 114 CHAPTER 6. PRELIMINARY RESULTS crease across all patient classes, with the DC gains being noticeably higher. High frequencies are experience a much stronger attenuation in all standing cases as well. 6.4 Concluding Remarks While we have shown that our estimated coefficients do indeed track the physiological changes induced by autonomic blockade drugs, we have carefully avoided asking the obvious question - so what? If we were to examine the heart-rate signal and its variability, we would see similar systematic changes during the drug interventions. Over the course of experimentation, I have performed many more tests on simulated and real data than I have presented here, but none provide any more information and so are not worth presenting. Unfortunately, because the R-R signal itself was such a good measure of sympathetic and parasympathetic balance in these patients, we can only use these signals for calibration and first-level testing of our model - which we have shown here. I will address the need for different data sets and testing methods in the following chapter. 115 6.4. CONCLUDING REMARKS Frequency Response for Supine Patient - 0 0F5 1 5 2 Control Atropine Propranolol 25 Frequency (2xubeats) Frequency (2n/beats) Figure 6.3: Class transferfunctions for (Top) supine and (Bottom) standing patients 116 CHAPTER 6. PRELIMINARY RESULTS Chapter 7 Conclusion I hope that by now you have understood our motivation for pursuing this research. I will begin this chapter with a few words on the content of this thesis, followed by a discussion of the future of this research, and I will conclude with some final thoughts on the process and value of writing this document. 7.1 A Retrospective on the Thesis We began this thesis with one, clear goal: to model the blood pressure heart rate pathway of the arterial baroreflex in humans using a parsimonious beat-to-beat model, with a clear physiological interpretation for our model coefficients. Ch. 1 In Chapter 1, we present an overview of the baroreflex, from both physiological and quantitative modeling perspectives. The physiological re117 118 CHAPTER 7. CONCLUSION search on baroreflex is rich and complex, with studies focusing on the. action of the baroreflex, as well as the the neurological and neuroendocrinological components of the baroreflex. From these, we conclude that the fast-acting parasympathetic nervous system is the dominant effector in the baroreflex, depressing the heart rate via direct innervation, as well as inhibiting the longer-lasting sympathetic control. We then shift our focus to the modeling of the baroreflex. The bulk of the work done on modeling the baroreflex has been done in continuous time. Additionally, the focus has been on non-parametric examination of the baroreflex, computing empirical transfer functions, coherence moduli, etc. While the results of these studies have diminished importance to us because we are not considering the baroreflex with a continuous time model, we nonetheless take from them the idea of examining the non-parametric frequency-domain components of our system as a tool for understanding the baroreflex. We then discuss some attempts to model the baroreflex, and particularly emphasize attempts to model it with discrete time, beat-to-beat models. Ch. 2 In Chapter 2, we begin with a statement physiological assumptions drawn from Chapter 1 that we will use in deriving our model. Starting with these assumptions, we derive both sympathetic and parasympathetic subcomponents independently, and then merge the two pathways to come to our final, one-pole model of the baroreflex. From here, we present some of the time-domain and frequency-domain 1 characteristics that our model is capable of exhibiting. This is done mainly to show that our simple model is 'frequency in the bet sense 7.1. A RETROSPECTIVE ON THE THESIS 119 still capable of producing a wide range of behaviors in the time and frequency domain. Ch. 3 In Chapter 3, we introduce the data set we are hoping to use for testing and model verification. We use the autonomic blockade data from Saul et al. [46], and so we recap the methods they employ for acquiring and preprocessing the data. We then discuss how we convert our data from "continuous" time (sampled at 360 Hz) to beat-to-beat time (sampled every heart beat), and engage in a brief discussion of the pros and cons of our chosen representation of time. Finally, we return to the non-parametric methods introduced in Ch. 1, and analyze our data's blood pressure power spectrum, heart rate - blood pressure cross spectrum, and the empirical blood pressure - heart rate transfer function. We conclude Ch. 3 with a discussion of the potential problems we may encounter using our model, given the empirical spectra and the model's achievable spectra presented in Ch 2. Ch. 4 In Chapter 4, we present a broad overview of estimation as it pertains to our model. We choose to approach the problem first by discussing some of the various error minimization criteria we can use to serve our purposes without getting bogged down in the implied statistical properties of each. Instead, we move straight to testing the performance of these various criteria, and decide on the standard least squares criteria (LMMSE) for our minimization. We then introduce the concept of residual 'whiteness', and use this as motivation for windowed least squares (WLS). Once the windowed algorithm is sufficiently motivated, described, and tested, we discuss the numerical issues that it faces. As a solution, we introduce regularization. 120 CHAPTER 7. CONCLUSION While regularization first appears as a numerical conditioning method, we quickly move to its statistical interpretation in an effort to understand why it works so well. Our focus is on C2-norm regularization, and so we reformulate our problem as a regularizedwindowed least squares (RegWLS) problem, and compare and contrast it to the LMMSE solution. We finish our discussion of RegWLS with the concept of overlapping windows as a method to increase time-domain resolution of our estimates, and arrive on our final estimation algorithm. As a parting 'teaser', we discuss another class of least squares estimates - frequency domain parameter estimation - as a viable alternative worth further study. Ch. 5 In Chapter 5, we show more extensive tests on the RegWLS method, demonstrating that it does, in fact, perform more reliably and produce more meaningful results than the WLS method 2 . We also make note that the changes in our model coefficients do indeed reflect the changes in the underlying physiology that we had hoped to see under the various autonomic interventions. We also acknowledge that using the WLS method alone, we were prone to overestimating the parasympathetic contribution to heart-rate, and that regularizing our estimates attributed a larger portion of the heart rate to the long-tailed sympathetic control. We then the examine the changes to the model transfer function caused by the various drug interventions, for completeness. Because of the nature of our data, we cannot draw many more conclusions or results, and so we leave this section somewhat unfulfilled. 2 both now with overlapping windows 121 7.2. TOPICS FOR FUTURE WORK 7.2 Topics for Future Work Because of the inconclusive nature of our study, I feel that there are many opportunities to improve on this research. Specifically, I feel that these tasks can be broken into two separate areas of focus - 7.2.1 modeling and testing. Modeling Model Order Selection Our work began with an idea, which quickly became a model, and then an estimation problem. Unfortunately, the estimation problem took the better part of a year to work through, but has yielded many new techniques and methods to pursue. One important future step would be to return to square one - the model. Using the tools and analysis metrics we have developed, we should examine various order MA, AR, and ARMA models. Because we chose our model with the goal of parsimony , we should examine what the ultimate cost of that parsimony is. Perhaps there is an optimal parsimony-performance tradeoff, and we owe it to ourselves to see if this is the case. Setpoint Determination and Linearization We had initially claimed that we were 'linearizing' our model around setpoints BP and RR, but then quickly mentioned that, for our work, we assumed we had zero-valued setpoints. This was as much to produce meaningful coefficients as it was because proper setpoint determination was intractable given our time constraints. We had not, and still have not, determined a proper method to linearize our model, and so, as it stands, the strong performance of our estimation setup and model are quite shocking. That said, a bit of time should be devoted to 122 CHAPTER 7. CONCLUSION understanding why this is the case. One thought is that we are approaching the task of 'linearization' foolishly. DeBoer et al. linearize their model by passing BP and R-R through a non-linear filtering [16], and nearly all of the non-parametric models relied on first low-pass filtering their data before analysis. Perhaps we, with our simple DC-component removal method, were naive in our linearization approach. In much of the time-series modeling literature, a great deal of emphasis is placed on the assumed spectral and time-domain characteristics and correlation of the signals [21] , [11]. While we briefly examine the 'whiteness' of our residual error time-series and other related details, we have not been as careful as we could have been in pre-filtering our inputs for optimal estimation. There are many techniques to do this - pre-whitening filters, instrumental variable estimation - all of which are presented in detail by Ljung [33]. I would hope that future work, both in model order selection, and in parameter estimation, draw heavily from this source, as it provides sufficient mathematical and application specific motivation for a variety of time-series and model analysis techniques. Miscellaneous While we have presented in this thesis one form of modified least squares estimation, we have experimented with a few more promising techniques. Of these, the frequency domain estimation method seems the most exciting. I would then hope that future research engage in a broader search through estimation literature to see if such a technique already exists, and perhaps expand on the frameworks provided in Ch. 4. In some ways, we might be able to circumvent the problems we face in the time domain by 123 7.2. TOPICS FOR FUTURE WORK a careful understanding of the frequency domain nature of our signals. 7.2.2 Testing While it is certain that we need a better way to understand and solve our estimation problem, that is a problem that is unlikely to ever be fully solved. On some level, we must be satisfied with the results produced by our estimation, and begin testing our model's ability to identify silent changes in the baroreflex. What I mean here is that, in our autonomic blockade data, we could determine the state of a patient by simply looking at his physiological signals. While this is okay, it is not clinically significant to be able to use a model that provides no more information that can be gleaned from the signals themselves. By 'silent', I am referring to situations where either the sympathetic or parasympathetic pathway is not properly functioning, but it is not altogether obvious from the signals themselves (specifically, from the heart rate signal). A hypothetical situation where this may occur is in a patient exercising after the sympathetic pathway of the baroreflex is removed - ischemic and chemoreceptor drive should drive an increase in heart rate but the action will not be through the baroreflex. We should then shift our focus to how to generate these data. It is highly unlikely that we can perform such invasive testing on humans, but perhaps it is possible on rabbits. For example, if we denervate the sympathetic/parasympathetic connection (chemically or mechanically), we can modulate the heart rate and blood pressure in the following ways: . Injecting boluses of saline/exsanguination to modulate blood pressure 124 CHAPTER 7. CONCLUSION " Administration of dopamine to increase heart rate and blood pressure centrally (in the brain) * Calcium channel blockers to decrease heart rate and blood pressure via venous tone * Administration of adenosine as a strong negative chronotrope and vasodilator with a short half life [32] We could also test our model against known interventions and baroreflex malfunctions, e.g. vasovagal syncope, and acute hypotensive episodes. If our model does indeed track changes in patients that the waveforms themselves do not, or if it has some predictive ability, we should then begin testing it on larger classes of patients to try and learn. For example, it would be interesting to see the effect of the baroreflex in pathologies like sleep apnea, valsalva maneuver, various arrhythmias, and chronically hypertensive patients. As the goal of this work is clinical monitoring and use, we should try and shift our focus to that as soon as possible. 7.3 Concluding Remarks Researching this topic and writing this thesis has taken a long time and a lot of effort. During the process, we have uncovered the shortcomings of existing modeling techniques, and found ourselves facing many new and undocumented challenges both in estimation and in model validation. The focus of this study was then much more mathematically focused than most quantitative physiology theses, and yet less rigorous than most estimation 7.3. CONCLUDING REMARKS 125 and optimization focused theses. In trying to balance these two goals, perhaps we have left both somewhat unsatisfied. 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Res., 9:512-530, 1976. 132 BIBLIOGRAPHY [45] DeBoer RW, Karemaker JM, and Strackee J. Comparing spectra of a series of point events particularly for heart rate variability data.. IEEE Trans. Biomed. Eng., 31(4):384-387, 1984. [46] J. Philip Saul, Ronald D. Berger, Paul Albrecht, Stephen P. Stein, Ming Hui Chen, and Richard J. Cohen. Transfer function analysis of the circulation: unique insights into cardiovascular regulation. American Journal of Physiology, 261(4), 1991. [47] Mauricio Scanavacca, Denise Hachul, Cristiano Pisani, and Eduardo Sosa. Selective vagal denervation of the sinus and atrioventricular nodes, guided by vagal reflexes induced by high frequency stimulation, to treat refractory neurally mediated syncope. Journal of CardiovascularElectrophysiology, 20(5):558-563, May 2009. [48] Stephen M. Smith, Nilesh J. Samani, Emily L. Sammons, Wendy E. Rathbone, John F. Potter, Stephen Bentley, and Ronney B. Panerai. Influence of non-invasive measurements of arterial blood pressure in frequency and time-domain estimates of cardiac baroreflex sensitivity. Journal of Hypertension, 26(1):76-82, January 2008. [49] Hugo C. D. Souza, Geisa C. S. V. Terzini, Valdo J. D. da Silva, Marli C. Martins-Pinge, Helio C. Salgado, and Maria-Cristina 0. Salgado. Increased cardiac sympathetic drive and reduced vagal modulation following endothelin receptor antagonism in healthy conscious rats. Clinical and Experimental Pharmacology & Physiology, 35(7):751-6, July 2008. [50] Jos F. Sturm, Oleksandr Romanko, Imre Polik, and Tamas Terlaky. Sedumi, 2009. http: //mloss. org/software/view/202/. [51] Robert Tibshirani. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 58:267-288, 1994. [52] K. C. Toh, M.J. Todd, R.H. Ttnc, and R. H. Tutuncu. Sdpt3 - a matlab software package for semidefinite programming. Optimization Methods and Software, 11:545-581, 1998. [53] B. W. 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Physiological Measurement, 26:R41-R71, 2006. 134 BIBLIOGRAPHY Appendix A Convex Formulation of Optimization Problems A.1 A.1.1 Norms, P-Norms, and Convexity Convexity We call a set C convex if the line segment between any two points in C is contained in C, or formally, VX,y E C, 0 < 0 < 1, we have Ox + (1 - 0)y E C We define a function, f : R" -- m, to be convex if its domain and epigraph are convex sets. Similarly, we say a function f is convex if domf is a convex set, and f(Ox + (1 - O)y) < Of(x) + (1 - 6)f(y) 135 V, y E domf, 0 < 0 < 1 (A.1) 136APPENDIX A. CONVEX FORMULATION OF OPTIMIZATION PROBLEMS We then define a convex optimization problem to have the form: minimize f(x) subject to gi(x) < bi, i 1, . ,rn n. hj (x) = c, J=1,., where the objective f is a convex function, and the equality and inequality constraints are convex as well (g's and h's are convex, and b's and c's are constants). We are placing so much emphasis on convex optimization because, by definition, all convex optimization problems are guaranteed to have a global minimum solution'. We can find these solutions using any number of available convex optimization solvers2 [9]. Now we must define a norm and show that all norms are convex functions of their arguements. A.1.2 Vector Norms We define a norm as any function f : W" -+ R satisfying the three following properties: " Positive homogeneity - f(a - x) = |a - f(x) for any scalar a " Triangle inequality - f (x + u) < f (x) + f (u) lor no feasible solution 2 Linear Programs, Semidefinite Programs, Second Order Cone Programs, Geometric Programs, Quadratic Programs, and a few more commonly discussed optimization problems are, in fact, convex optimization problems, and so reformulating a problem into one of these forms will suffice for our purposes A.1. 137 NORMS, P-NORMS, AND CONVEXITY x = 0 e Positive definiteness - f (x) = 0 Furthermore, we define a p - norm to be a special norm satistifying the For any norm, we know that by the following property, Oxll, = (S1x:l)P. triangle inequality, f (Ox + (1 - O)y) < f (Ox) + f ((1 - O)y) And from the positive homogeneity property, f (Ox + (1 - O)y) < f (Ox) + f ((1 - O)y) = Of(x) + (1 - O)f (y) Which shows that all norms as defined above are convex. Because I-||1and I - are specific cases of p - norms, we know that they are convex functions. We must now further show that the composition of a p - norm and an affine function is also convex. A.1.3 Convexity of the Norm of an Affine Function It is easy to show that all affine and linear functions are convex by applying the definition in (A.1). Without too much exposition, it is simple to visualize that for any vector z E R", q(z) - Iz| is a convex, nonnegative function. Similarly, if we form y as an affine transformation of z, y function q(y) = |yl Gz + h, the remains convex and nonnegative. n with domp = , which is i=1 convex and nondecreasing. Let g(x) = xll, and h(x) = Gx+h. We see that We then consider the function p(x) =(5x)P f (x) = p o q(x) = g o h(x). Invoking second-order conditions on convexity (if f is twice differentiable, f(x) convex * f"(x) > 0 Vx E domf ): 138APPENDIX A. CONVEX FORMULATION OF OPTIMIZATION PROBLEMS f"(x) > 0 m Vp(q(x))Tq"(x) + q'(x)TV 2 p(q(x))q'(x) > 0 Since the above holds for our choice of p and q, we know that f = p oq is convex, and therefore, our composition of an affine function with a p - norm, g o h is convex as well. A.2 Reformulation of Optimization Problems A.2.1 CI-minimization as an LP We define a standard Linear Program (LP) as: minimize xERmt cTX subject to Gx < h (A.2) Fx = z, Our i 1-norm minimization problem takes the form: minimize m xElR ||Ax - b|1 (A.3) If we introduce a dummy vector, t E R"', and add the constraints t < Ax-b and -t > Ax-b, minimizing ITt will (with a little more matrix/vector stacking) reduce to the standard form LP, ready to be solved by standard LP solvers. A.2. REFORMULATION OF OPTIMIZATION PROBLEMS 139 4C 0 -minimization as an LP A.2.2 Our lioo-norm minimization problem takes the form: minimize m xER ||Ax - bJ (A.4) If we introduce a dummy scalar, t E R, and add the constraints t < Ax - b (</> in the elementwise sense) and -t > Ax - b, minimizing t will (with a little more matrix/vector stacking) solve the minimax problem as a standard form LP, ready to be solved by standard LP solvers. L 1 -regularized least squares problem as a QCQP A.2.3 We define a standard Quadratically Constrained Quadratic Program to take the form: minimize xERmn subject to .xI'Hox + foTx + fTx + ci < 0 for i= {1, . . . m} xT H Fx - (A.5) z, where matrices Hi are positive semidefinite matrices to ensure convexity. We can solve these problems efficiently using QCQP solvers, or more general semidefinite program solvers [9]. Our L 1 -regularized least squares problem takes the form in (A.6) and we wish to massage it into standard QCQP form (A.5): 140APPENDIX A. CONVEX FORMULATION OF OPTIMIZATION PROBLEMS minimize xERt t \\Ax - b| \+||Gx + h||1 subject to Xi < ci, i* = (A.6) 1 7,m} We begin by expanding the quadratic term in the objective function as: minimize xE R"- X AT Ax + 2xT Ab+ subject to xi < ci, i = {1, bTb + Gx + h|1 . , m} We then introduce a new variable, t, and an additional constraint aimed at removing the E1 -norm: minimize XERr"ntER xT AT Ax + 2xT Ab + bTb + t subject to xi < ci, i1= {1, . . .7,m} Gx +h<t Gx + h > -t If we introduce yet another variable z where z = [xlt] (by [x~y] we mean the vertical stacking of column vectors x and y), we arrive at our final QCQP formulation: 141 A.2. REFORMULATION OF OPTIMIZATION PROBLEMS [ T - zT minimize zERmt+10 T A A 0 - - - - z+ 2z T [-A 0 - - - -T' --b + -b 0 0J - - -b + 0 M1) 0 subject to c (1(1xm), 0) (G, -1(mxi)) (-G, A.2.4 -1(mxi)) z < h h Practical Solution of Convex Optimization Problems Because going through the mathematical gymnastics for every convex optimization problem you will come upon, there are a few modeling languages that allow you to express convex optimization problems in their natural form, and will go through the contortions for you. Most notable are YALMIP [34] and CVX [24], which interface with commonly available convex optimization solvers as well as open source solvers, SeDuMi a MATLAB interface. [50] and SDPT3 [52] using 142APPENDIX A. CONVEX FORMULATION OF OPTIMIZATION PROBLEMS Appendix B Various Model Criteria Applied to All Patients Table B.1: Mean Residual Ratio for Standing Control Patients Cost Fcn/Res.Rat. E2 L1 Ec r(L2) 1.00 1.04 1.39 r(f1) 1.02 1.00 1.46 r(C.o) 1.77 2.34 1.00 Table B.2: One-Step Error Correlation for Standing Control Patients Pat. No. p(L2) P(L1) P(£oo) CRCO1STC CRC02STC CRC03STC CRC04STC CRC05STC CRC06STC CRC07STC CRCOSSTC CRC09STC CRC1OSTC CRC1ISTC CRC12STC CRC13STC CRC14STC -0.02 0.26 0.20 0.01 0.02 -0.02 -0.16 0.28 0.57 0.36 0.41 0.22 0.29 0.22 -0.06 0.23 0.20 -0.08 0.06 -0.08 -0.22 0.26 0.56 0.37 0.41 0.23 0.29 0.23 -0.06 0.65 0.10 -0.12 0.13 0.40 0.51 0.27 0.68 0.34 0.42 0.45 0.29 0.45 143 144APPENDIX B. VARIOUS MODEL CRITERIA APPLIED TO ALL PATIENTS Table B.3: Mean Residual Ratio for Supine Control Patients Cost Fcn/Res.Rat.. I2 ,12 Lo r(L 2 ) 1.00 1.03 1.46 r(C1) 1.02 1.00 1.55 r(Loo) 1.70 2.29 1.00 Table B.4: One-Step Error Correlation for Supine Control Patients Pat. No. P(C2) p(L1) p(Ioo) CRCO1SUC CRC02SUC CRC03SUC CRC04SUC CRC05SUC CRC06SUC CRC07SUC CRC08STC CRC09SUC CRC10SUC CRC11SUC CRC12SUC CRC13SUC CRC14SUC 0.01 -0.08 0.23 -0.17 -0.08 -0.09 -0.05 0.02 0.23 0.23 0.26 -0.10 0.23 -0.10 -0.02 -0.16 0.22 -0.31 -0.19 -0.12 -0.09 0.01 0.22 0.22 0.28 -0.12 0.23 -0.12 0.20 0.51 0.44 0.82 -0.11 0.30 0.18 0.89 0.29 0.06 0.36 0.27 0.28 0.27 Table B.5: Mean Residual Ratio for Standing Propranolol Patients Cost Fcn/Res.Rat. L2 Li c r(C 2 ) 1.00 1.01 1.27 r(,12) 1.01 1.00 1.32 r(Lo,,o) 1.66 2.06 1.00 Table B.6: One-Step Error Correlation for Standing Propranolol Patients Pat. No. CRCO1STP CRC03STP CRC05STP CRC08STP CRCIOSTP CRC12STP CRC14STP P(C2) -0.16 -0.02 -0.05 -0.16 0.12 -0.14 -0.14 P(LI) -0.23 -0.03 -0.06 -0.17 0.12 -0.19 -0.17 p(Lo) 0.28 0.11 0.15 -0.24 0.27 -0.11 -0.15 Table B.7: Mean Residual Ratio for Supine Propranolol Patients Cost Fcn/Res.Rat. £2 L1 r(I2) 1.00 1.02 1.29 r(L 1 ) 1.01 1.00 1.31 r(Lo) 1.56 1.85 1.00 145 Table B.8: One-Step Error Correlation for Supine Propranolol Patients Pat. No. CRC01SUP CRC03SUP CRC05SUP CRC08SUP CRCIOSUP CRC12SUP CRC14SUP P(£2) -0.12 -0.04 -0.26 -0.09 0.22 -0.18 -0.17 P(C1) -0.20 -0 18 -0.34 -0.17 0.23 -0.23 -0.26 p(£oo) -0.04 0.10 -0.06 0.01 0.15 0.48 0.43 Table B.9: Mean Residual Ratio for Standing Atropine Patients Cost Fcn/Res.Rat. L2 L1 'co r(L2) 1.00 1.02 1.27 r(L 1 ) 1.02 1.00 1.27 r(Loo) 1.79 2.53 1.00 Table B.10: One-Step Error Correlation for Supine Propranolol Patients Pat. No. CRCO1SUP CRC03SUP CRC05SUP CRC08SUP CRC1OSUP CRC12SUP CRC14SUP p(L2) -0.12 -0.04 -0.26 -0.09 0.22 -0.18 -0.17 p(I1) -0.20 0.18 -0.34 -0.17 0.23 -0.23 -0.26 p(Lo) -0.04 0.10 -0.06 0.01 0.15 0.48 0.43 Table B.11: Mean Residual Ratio for Supine Atropine Patients Cost Fcn/Res.Rat. L2 l - oo r(122) 1.00 1.06 1.21 r(£ 1 ) 1.03 1.00 1.25 r(Co) 1.14 1.32 1.00 Table B.12: One-Step Error Correlation for Supine Atropine Patients Pat. No. CRC02SUA CRC04SUA CRC06SUA CRC07SUA CRC09SUA CRC11SUA CRC13SUA p(£2) -0.40 -0.37 -0.10 0.25 -0.49 -0.51 -0.58 p(L1) -0.70 -0.32 -0.10 0.29 -0.50 -0.51 -0.59 p(Lo) 0.30 -0.18 -0.04 -0.01 -0.50 -0.46 -0.59 146APPENDIX B. VARIOUS MODEL CRITERIA APPLIED TO ALL PATIENTS Table B.13: RMS Residual Error v. Number of Windows Patient/Num.Win. CRC01STC CRCOISTP CRC01SUC CRC01SUP CRC02STA CRC02STC CRC02SUA CRC02SUC CRC03STC CRC03STP CRC03SUC CRC03SUP CRC04STA CRC04STC CRC04SUA CRC04SUC CRC05STC CRC05STP CRC05SUC CRC05SUP CRC06STA CRC06STC CRC06SUA CRC06SUC CRC07STA CRC07STC CRC07SUA CRC07SUC CRC08STC CRC08STP CRC08SUC CRC08SUP CRC09STA CRC09STC CRC09SUA CRC09SUC CRC10STC CRC1OSTP CRClOSUC CRC10SUP CRC11STA CRC11STC CRC11SUA CRCI1SUC CRC12STC CRC12STP CRC12SUC CRC12SUP CRC13STA CRC13STC CRC13SUA CRC13SUC CRC14STC CRC14STP CRC14SUC CRC14SUP 1 20.6 21.6 28.6 33.8 6.8 31.1 17.0 55.3 17.5 20.2 34.7 86.8 7.1 32.0 2.6 52.4 78.6 100.2 96.4 108.3 3.4 52.5 3.6 72.5 2.2 37.8 39.2 75.2 23.8 28.0 22.1 37.2 2.8 16.9 2.1 27.2 20.1 2 20.6 21.3 28.5 33.7 6.8 31.0 16.5 54.8 17.4 20.0 34.5 85.9 7.1 31.6 2.6 50.1 73.5 94.9 96.3 102.1 3.4 52.4 3.6 72.3 2.2 37.7 38.7 73.8 22.4 27.9 20.9 37.1 2.8 16.8 2.1 27.2 19.8 4 20.5 20.9 28.2 32.8 6.8 30.7 15.7 53.6 16.9 19.9 34.1 84.5 7.1 31.1 2.6 49.2 72.6 92.4 95.2 100.1 3.4 51.4 3.6 72.3 2.2 37.2 37.9 73.7 22.3 27.7 20.5 36.6 2.8 16.1 2.0 26.7 19.8 21.5 21.5 33.4 34.2 2.2 13.5 2.2 26.0 21.1 25.4 41.2 57.9 2.3 35.2 2.1 45.3 21.1 27.1 41.2 61.7 33.1 33.6 2.2 13.3 2.2 25.6 20.9 25.3 40.6 56.8 2.3 35.1 2.1 45.2 20.9 26.7 40.6 60.3 6 20.0 20.7 27.8 33.1 6.8 30.2 14.8 53.1 16.3 19.6 34.2 82.6 7.0 31.1 2.6 48.4 72.1 91.3 93.4 99.5 3.4 51.7 3.6 71.4 2.2 36.8 37.4 73.1 22.1 27.6 20.3 36.3 2.7 15.7 2.0 26.3 19.5 8 20.2 20.5 27.6 32.1 6.7 30.2 14.5 52.3 16.3 19.7 33.7 82.1 7.0 30.6 2.6 48.5 72.0 90.4 93.4 99.4 3.3 51.1 3.6 71.2 2.2 36.7 37.4 73.2 21.9 27.3 19.9 35.8 2.7 15.5 2.0 26.2 19.1 10 19.5 20.3 27.6 31.8 6.7 29.7 14.1 51.7 16.1 19.6 33.5 80.6 7.0 30.4 2.6 47.8 71.6 90.8 93.0 98.3 3.3 50.8 3.5 70.7 2.2 36.3 37.0 69.6 21.9 26.7 20.1 35.7 2.7 15.5 2.0 26.1 19.1 12 19.1 20.3 27.5 31.2 6.5 29.7 14.4 49.9 15.7 19.4 33.5 79.1 6.9 30.1 2.6 47.2 71.9 88.9 92.2 97.5 3.3 50.7 3.5 70.2 2.2 35.8 36.3 70.5 21.7 26.8 19.6 35.3 2.7 14.9 2.0 25.9 19.0 14 19.4 19.7 27.0 31.2 6.6 29.8 13.9 48.2 15.6 19.1 33.1 78.9 7.0 29.7 2.6 48.1 70.5 89.3 91.4 98.0 3.3 50.5 3.5 68.9 2.2 35.5 36.0 72.0 21.6 26.6 19.5 34.4 2.5 15.3 2.0 25.7 18.8 16 19.2 19.1 27.1 30.6 6.6 29.4 13.9 49.3 15.7 18.9 33.2 78.9 7.0 29.1 2.6 46.3 69.8 86.0 91.1 97.9 3.3 49.3 3.5 69.1 2.2 34.6 35.4 70.0 21.3 26.7 19.2 34.7 2.6 14.7 2.0 25.5 18.7 21.2 21.1 21.0 19.8 17.6 17.4 16.9 17.1 32.5 33.2 2.2 12.9 2.2 24.9 20.9 24.8 39.7 56.0 2.3 35.0 2.1 44.9 20.9 26.2 39.7 59.1 32.5 32.7 2.2 12.7 2.2 25.1 20.8 24.7 39.5 55.3 2.3 34.2 2.1 44.7 20.8 25.9 39.5 59.0 32.1 32.7 2.2 12.6 2.2 24.5 20.6 24.4 39.4 54.4 2.3 33.8 2.1 44.5 20.6 25.5 39.4 58.0 32.1 32.3 2.2 12.5 2.2 24.4 20.4 23.9 39.1 53.4 2.3 33.6 2.1 44.5 20.4 25.1 39.1 57.4 32.0 31.5 2.2 12.2 2.2 24.4 20.3 23.8 38.2 53.4 2.3 33.3 2.1 44.4 20.3 24.5 38.2 56.3 32.0 30.6 2.2 12.2 2.2 24.3 20.1 23.6 37.8 52.7 2.3 32.8 2.1 44.4 20.1 24.5 37.8 56.5 31.1 31.8 2.2 12.1 2.2 24.0 19.8 23.1 37.0 51.0 2.3 32.4 2.1 44.1 19.8 23.6 37.0 55.1 31.4 31.6 2.2 12.0 2.1 23.8 19.7 22.6 37.5 49.9 2.3 32.6 2.1 43.9 19.7 23.4 37.5 54.3 18 18.9 19.6 27.0 30.4 6.6 29.4 13.3 48.1 15.0 18.6 33.0 78.3 6.9 29.8 2.6 46.1 68.9 84.7 91.5 96.2 3.3 49.3 3.4 67.7 2.2 33.5 34.2 70.6 21.2 25.5 19.0 34.2 2.4 13.9 2.0 25.3 18.4 20 18.7 19.7 26.7 30.1 6.6 28.3 13.5 48.5 15.1 18.4 32.8 77.9 6.9 28.6 2.6 46.4 67.7 86.8 90.3 94.0 3.2 48.9 3.4 68.5 2.2 33.4 34.9 70.6 21.0 25.2 18.6 32.7 2.6 14.6 2.0 24.7 18.5 16.8 31.3 30.6 2.2 12.2 2.1 23.7 19.5 22.4 36.5 50.6 2.3 32.4 2.1 43.9 19.5 23.2 36.5 53.5 ] m - 000 to D o6 4o645 ,qtx000m0 Cq m0 N I- -,t N t- t- N m 0 0 6 5 O00 00 O 66 "T x 0 m0 t 0 m 0 0 0 0 m0 00C, 0000t 0 0 0 0 00 0 6 o46 m0 t0- 0 txmO m 0Cm No 00l. 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