MIGRATION REPORT of the HUDSON VALLEY 2008-2009 MARIST COLLEGE Dr. Christy Huebner Caridi Bureau of Economic Research School of Management Poughkeepsie, New York 12601 Edited by leslie Bates September 2011 This report is available on the Bureau of Economic Research homepage at http://www.marist.edu/management/bureau The support of research assistant Haley Hart and student research assistant Serena Bubenheim is acknowledged and appreciated. While every effort has been made to ensure that the information in this report is accurate, Marist College cannot be held responsible for any remaining errors. Hudson Valley Migration: 2008-2009 Uncertainty in the housing market in concert with slow job growth has reduced the level of migratory activity; it has not impacted the trend. Outbound migration continues to trump inbound migration; intraregional migration continues to favor Dutchess County and hinder Westchester County and migration from New York City remains an important source of new household formation. During the 2008-2009 migration period total outflows from the Hudson Valley (43,560) exceeded inflows into the Hudson Valley (40,298), resulting in a net loss of 3,262 households and a $35.50 million reduction in adjusted gross income (AGI), compared to a net loss of 4,335 households and a $186.50 million reduction in AGI during the 2007-2008 migration period. During the period and on average, households that entered the region had higher AGIs ($66,132) than the households that left the region ($61,994). A similar pattern occurred during the previous migration period, when the average AGI of incoming households at $69,469 exceeded the average AGI of outbound households ($67,018). For the period, 61.89 percent of all inflows into the Hudson Valley and 50.83 percent of all outflows from the Hudson Valley were intrastate, consistent with the 62.53 percent and 49.51 percent witnessed in the 2007-2008 migration period. Year-over-year, total inflows fell 5.09 percent; outflows fell 6.92 percent. Intrastate migration resulted in a net gain of 2,802 households and $473.11 million in AGI, compared to a net gain of 3,380 households and $533.10 million in AGI during the 2007-2008 migration period. As is typically the case, intrastate migratory flows were dominated by intraregional–within the Hudson Valley–activity and activity with the five counties of New York City (NYC). Migration within the Hudson Valley represented 40.03 percent of all intrastate inflows and 45.10 percent of all intrastate outflows. Migration with NYC accounted for 47.79 percent of all intrastate inflows and 38.54 percent of all intrastate outflows, in line with the migratory flows witnessed in the 2007-2008 migration period. Year-over-year, the number of Hudson Valley households that moved county-to-county within the Hudson Valley (intraregional) fell 3.74 percent from 10,372 in the 2007-2008 migration period to 9,984 in the 2008-2009 migration period. Consistent with trend, Westchester County experienced the largest intraregional net outflow at 598 households. Of this total, 42.14 percent (252 households) moved into Dutchess County; 33.95 percent (203 households) moved into Putnam County. Rockland County was the only other county in the region to experience a net outflow at 113 households. For the period, Dutchess County recorded the largest intraregional inflow at 444 households and $31.53 million in AGI. 1 | P a g e During the 2008-2009 migration period inflows into the Hudson Valley (11,921) from NYC exceeded outflows to NYC (8,533) by 3,388 households and $501.36 million in AGI. As is typical in the region, the largest net inflow was from Bronx County at 2,118 households and $162.65 million in AGI: $76,790 per household gained. The second largest inflow was from New York County (Manhattan) at 482 households and $222.07 million in AGI: $460,730 per household gained. Migration with Queens County, Kings County (Brooklyn) and Richmond County (Staten Island) resulted in a net gain of 400, 305 and 83 households, respectively. The total inflow of AGI from the aforementioned counties was $116.64 million. Year-over-year, total inflows into the Hudson Valley from NYC fell 7.00 percent; total outflows from the Hudson Valley to NYC fell 4.43 percent. Within the region the largest net inflow was into Westchester County (2,047), followed by Orange County (601) and Rockland County (183). Ulster County witnessed the highest inflow of AGI per household at $290,050 per household gained. Total interstate and foreign migration into and out of the Hudson Valley resulted in a net loss of 6,064 households, compared to a net loss of 7,715 households in the 2007-2008 migration period. The net AGI outflow was $508.61 million: $83,874 per household lost. During the period, the average AGI of outbound households ($69,262) exceeded the AGI of inbound households ($63,492). A similar pattern occurred during the previous migration period: the average AGI of outbound households was $73,583 while the average AGI of inbound households was $64,036. Overall, outflows exceeded inflows by 52.20 percent. Migration within the northeastern region (sans New York State) represented 19.35 percent of all outflows and 15.00 percent of all inflows. Taken as a whole, outflows (8,427) exceeded inflows (6,045), resulting in a net loss of 2,382 households and $230.87 million in AGI. The most active migratory flows occurred with the states of Connecticut, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. In each case outflows exceeded inflowing, resulting in a net loss of households. Westchester County recorded the largest net outflow to the state of Connecticut at 719 households and $111.40 million in AGI; Rockland County recorded the largest net outflow to the state of New Jersey at 308 households and $25.91 million in AGI; Orange County recorded the largest net outflow to the state of Pennsylvania at 155 households and $7.45 million in AGI. On average, the AGI of outbound households ($77,530) exceeded the AGI of inbound households ($69,890) by 9.85 percent. Migration with the southern region of the U.S. represented 19.20 percent of all outflows and 12.51 percent of all inflows. For the period, outflows (8,364) exceeded inflows (5,040), resulting in a net outflow of 3,324 households and $240.20 million in AGI. On average, the AGI of outbound households ($59,940) exceeded the AGI of inbound households ($51,820) by 13.55 percent. Migration with the western region of the U.S. represented 6.05 percent of all outflows and 4.67 percent of all inflows. For the period, outflows (2,635) exceeded inflows (1,880) resulting in a net outflow of 755 households and $15.35 million in AGI. Migration with the midwestern region of the U.S. represented 2.98 of all 2 | P a g e outflows and 2.88 of all inflows. The net result was a loss of 140 households and $2.82 million in AGI. 3 | P a g e Dutchess County Migration 2008-2009 During the 2008-2009 migration period, outflows from Dutchess County (5,548) exceeded inflows into Dutchess County (5,350), resulting in a net loss of 198 households and a $6.2 million increase in adjusted gross income (AGI), compared to a net loss of 352 households and a $9.0 million increase in AGI during the 2007-2008 migration period. Year-over-year, total outflows fell 6.20 percent, total inflows fell 3.83 percent and the average AGI of inbound households was 5.72 percent higher than the average AGI of outbound households. Intrastate Migration During the 2008-2009 migration period 65.07 percent of all inflows into Dutchess County and 54.18 percent of all outflows from Dutchess County were intrastate, consistent with the 65.90 percent and 52.80 percent witnessed in the 2007-2008 migration period. Year-over-year, intrastate migration resulted in a gain of 475 households and $54.7 million AGI compared to a year-over-year net gain of 542 households and $63.9 million in AGI in the 2007-2008 migration period. As is typically the case, 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% intrastate migratory Orange County flows were 442 373 dominated by Putnam County 368 217 intraregional– Rockland County 50 63 within the Hudson Sullivan County 25 24 Valley–activity and Ulster County 510 552 activity with the Westchester County 696 444 five counties of Total 2104 1660 New York City (NYC). Migration Inflows of Households Outflows of Households with the Hudson Valley accounted for 60.44 percent of all intrastate inflows and 55.22 percent of all intrastate outflows. Migration with NYC accounted for 23.15 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% percent of all Orange County $19,540 $16,037 intrastate inflows Putnam County $21,048 $10,370 and 19.23 percent Rockland County $4,350 $2,648 of all intrastate outflows. In both Sullivan County $1,238 $1,015 cases the migratory Ulster County $23,558 $22,972 flows Westchester County $42,845 $28,007 witnessed in the Total $81,049 $112,579 2008-2009 period were consistent Inflow of AGI in 1000's Outflow of AGI in 1000's with the 2007-2008 4 | P a g e migration period. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% During the 2008Bronx County 254 119 2009 migration period inflows into Kings County 165 141 Dutchess County (2,104) exceeded the New York County 204 159 outflows from Queens County 172 143 Dutchess County (1,660), resulting in a Richmond County 11 16 net gain of 444 Total NYC 806 578 households and Inflows of Households Outflows of Households $31.53 million of AGI. The largest net inflows occurred with Westchester County at 252 households, followed by Putnam at 151 households. Migration with Ulster County resulted in a net loss of 42 households. Year-overyear, intraregional outflows increased 1.65 percent; inflows fell 4.58 percent. During the 20082009 migration period inflows into Dutchess County (806) from NYC exceeded outflows to NYC (578) by 228 households and $30.00 million in AGI. As is typical in the region, Bronx County accounted 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% for the largest share of inflows from Bronx County $12,948 $4,164 NYC into Dutchess Kings County $9,145 $6,167 County at 31.51 percent (135 New York County $24,184 $9,378 households) Queens County $9,711 $5,880 followed by New Richmond County $521 $914 York County (Manhattan) at Total NYC $56,509 $26,503 25.31 percent (45 households). Inflow of AGI in 1000's Outflow of AGI in 1000's Migration with New York County (Manhattan) produced the largest net inflow of AGI at $14.80 million. Year-overyear, total outflows fell 10.11 percent; inflows fell 3.00 percent. Interstate1 and Foreign Migration Total interstate and foreign migration into and out of Dutchess County resulted in a net loss of 673 households compared to a net loss of 894 households in the 2007-2008 migration period. The net AGI outflow was $48.57 million: $72,169 per household lost. Overall, outflows exceeded inflow by 36.00 percent. 1 The threshold for releasing county‐to‐county migration data is ten or more households. Any county‐to‐county migration that does not meet this criterion is classified as ‘other’ and added to regional data. The result is an incomplete picture of county‐to‐county and county‐to‐state migratory flows. 5 | P a g e Migration within the northeastern region (sans New York State) represented 54.00 percent of all outflows and 65.00 percent of all inflows. Overall outflows (829) exceeded inflows (617), resulting in a net outflow of 212 households Foreign Dutchess County West 1% Outflows as a % of and $12.71 million in AGI. 7% Total Outflows The largest net outflow 2008‐2009 was to the state of Connecticut at 65 South households and $3.76 20% million in AGI–55.38 percent of this total (36 New York Midwest households) moved into 54% 3% Fairfield County. The second largest net outflow Northeast (other) occurred with the state of 15% Massachusetts at 60 households and $3.68 million in AGI, followed by Pennsylvania at 35 households and $1.29 million in AGI. Migration with the state of New Jersey resulted in a net loss Dutchess County Foreign of 25 households and $1.49 Inflows as a % of 4% West million in AGI. Migration Total Inflows 5% 2008‐2009 with the southern region South 12% of the U.S. represented 20.00 percent of all outflows and 12.00 percent Midwest 3% of all inflows. For the period, outflows (1,085) New York exceeded inflows (648), Northeast 65% (other) resulting in a net outflow 11% of 437 households and $27.40 million in AGI. Migration with the western region of the U.S. represented 7.00 percent of all outflows and 5.00 percent of all inflows. For the period, outflows (379) exceeded inflows (253), resulting in a net outflow of 126 households and $55.68 million in AGI Migration with the midwestern region represented 3.00 percent of all outflows and 3.00 percent of all inflows. The net result was a loss of 33 households and $2.70 million in AGI. 6 | P a g e Orange County Migration 2008-2009 During the 2008-2009 migration period, outflows from Orange County (7,753) exceeded inflows into Orange County (7,317), resulting in a net loss of 416 households and a $23.6 million decrease in adjusted gross income (AGI), compared to a net loss of 550 households and an $8.4 million decrease in AGI during the 2007-2008 migration period. Year-over-year, total outflows fell 7.19 percent, total inflows fell 5.98 percent and the average AGI of outbound households was .90 percent higher than the average AGI of inbound households. Intrastate Migration During the 2008-2009 migration period 56.76 percent of all inflows into Orange County and 46.23 percent of all outflows from Orange County were intrastate, consistent with the 59.21 percent and 43.16 percent witnessed in the 2007-2008 migration period. Year-over-year, intrastate migration resulted in a loss of 578 households and $52.1 million compared to a yearover-year net loss 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% of 1012 households and $81.2 million Dutchess County 373 442 in AGI in the 2007Putnam County 40 40 2008 migration Rockland County 507 372 period. As is Sullivan County 400 416 typically the case, Ulster County 527 533 intrastate migratory flows were Westchester County 323 267 dominated by Totals 2170 2070 intraregional– within the Hudson Inflows of Households Outflows of Households Valley–flows and flow activity with the five counties of New York City (NYC). Migration within the Hudson Valley accounted for 52.25 percent of all intrastate inflows and 57.90 percent of all intrastate outflows. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Migration with Dutchess County $16,037 $19,540 NYC accounted for Putnam County $2,668 $2,142 35.90 percent of all Rockland County $28,393 $23,051 intrastate inflows and 24.90 percent Sullivan County $16,443 $15,661 of all intrastate Ulster County $21,186 $21,073 outflows. In both Westchester County $13,700 $18,749 cases the migratory Totals $102,694 $95,949 flows witnessed in the 2008-2009 Inflow of AGI in 1000's Outflow of AGI in 1000's migration period were consistent 7 | P a g e with the 2007-2008 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% migratory flows. During the 2008Bronx County 243 607 2009 migration Kings County 210 267 period, New York County 191 287 intraregional Queens County 225 280 inflows (2,170) exceeded Richmond County 21 50 intraregional Totals 890 1491 outflows (2,070), resulting in a net Inflows of Households Outflows of Households gain of 100 households and $6.75 million of AGI. The largest net inflows occurred with Westchester and Rockland counties at 56 and 135 households, respectively. Orange County lost households to Dutchess (69), Sullivan (16) and Ulster (6).Year-over-year, intraregional inflows fell 4.87 percent; intraregional outflows fell .88 percent. During the 2008-2009 migration period inflows into Orange County from NYC (1,491) exceeded outflows to NYC 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% (890), resulting in a net gain of 601 Bronx County $10,334 $33,718 households and Kings County $48.8 million in $8,379 $14,923 AGI. As is typical New York County $14,316 $22,356 in the region, Queens County $8,860 $17,099 Bronx County accounted for the Richmond County $1,029 $3,664 largest share of Totals $42,918 $91,760 inflows from NYC at 40.71 percent, Inflow of AGI in 1000's Outflow of AGI in 1000's followed by New York County (Manhattan) and Queens County at 19.25 percent and 18.78 percent, respectively. Migration with Bronx County produced the largest net inflow of AGI at $23.4 million. Year-over-year, inflows fell 15.86 percent; outflows increased .68 percent. Interstate 2and Foreign Migration Total interstate and foreign migration into and out of Orange County resulted in a net loss of 994 households compared to a net loss of 1,562 households in the 2007-2008 migration period. The net AGI outflow was $75.70 million: $76,159 per household lost. Overall, interstate and foreign outflows exceeded inflows by 31.42 percent. 2 The threshold for releasing county‐to‐county migration data is ten or more households. Any county‐to‐county migration that does not meet this criterion is classified as ‘other’ and added to regional data. The result is an incomplete picture of county‐to‐county and county‐to ‐state migratory flows. 8 | P a g e Migration within the northeastern region (sans New York State) represented 46.00 percent of all outflows and 57.00 percent of all inflows. Overall outflows (1,298) exceeded inflows (1,195), resulting in a net loss of Orange County 103 households and $10.44 Foreign Outflows as a % of West 1% million in AGI. The largest Total Outflows 7% net outflow was to the state 2008‐2009 of Pennsylvania at 155 households and $7.45 million in AGI–56.12 South percent of this total (87 New York 25% 46% households) moved to Pike County, Pennsylvania. The second largest outflow was Northeast to the state of Midwest 17% 4% Massachusetts at 60 households and $2.00 million in AGI. Migration with the state of New Jersey resulted in a net inflow of 112 households and $4.17 million in AGI. The most active county-to-county migration was with Monmouth and Bergen counties at 57 and 45 households, respectively. Migration Orange County Foreign West Inflows as a % of 2% with the southern region 5% Total Inflows of the U.S. represented 2008‐2009 25.00 percent of all outflows and 16.00 percent South of all inflows. Overall 16% outflows (1,963) exceeded Midwest inflows (1,164), resulting 4% New York in a net loss of 799 Northeast 57% households and $55.53 16% million in AGI. Migration with the western region of the U.S. represented 7.00 percent of all outflows and 5.00 percent of all inflows. Overall, outflows (513) exceeded inflows (390), resulting in a net outflow of 123 households and $7.94 million in AGI. Migration with the midwestern region of the U.S. represented 4.00 percent of all inflows and 4.00 percent of all outflows. The net result was a net gain of 30 households and a net loss of $2.43 million in AGI. 9 | P a g e Putnam County Migration 2008-2009 During the 2008-2009 migration period, outflows from Putnam County (2,301) exceeded inflows into Putnam County (2,114), resulting in a net loss of 187 households and a $5.03 million decrease in adjusted gross income (AGI), compared to a net loss of 291 households and an $187,400 decrease in AGI during the 2007-2008 migration period. Year-over-year, total outflows fell 6.88 percent, total inflows fell 1.90 percent and the average AGI of inbound households was 4.84 percent higher than the average AGI of outbound households. Intrastate Migration During the 2008-2009 migration period 77.77 percent of all inflows into Putnam County and 62.41 percent of all outflows from Putnam County were intrastate, consistent with the 79.07 percent and 62.93 percent witnessed in the 2007-2008 migration period. Year-over-year, intrastate migration resulted in net gain of 208 households and $25.00 million AGI compared to a year-over-year net gain of 149 households and $36.70 million in AGI in the 2007-2008 migration period. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% As is typically the case, intrastate Dutchess County 217 368 migratory flows Rockland County were dominated by 16 18 intraregional– Ulster County 18 24 within the Hudson Valley–activity and Westchester County 804 601 activity with the Total 1055 1011 five counties of New York City Inflows of Households Outflows of Households (NYC). Intraregional migration accounted for 66.77 percent of all intrastate inflows and 73.30 percent of all intrastate outflows. Migration between Putnam County and NYC accounted for 28.10 percent all intrastate inflows into Putnam County and 19.02 percent of all intrastate outflows from Putnam County. During the 20082009 migration 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% period intraregional Dutchess County $10,370 $21,048 inflows into Putnam County Rockland County $978 $1,927 (1,055) exceeded intraregional Ulster County $838 $1,087 outflows from Westchester County $53,827 $35,124 Putnam County (1,011), resulting in Total $66,013 $59,186 a net gain of 44 households and Inflow of AGI in 1000's Outflow of AGI in 1000's 10 | P a g e $6.83 million of 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% AGI. The county gained 203 Bronx County 173 73 households and Kings County 90 48 $18.70 million in AGI from New York County 104 78 Westchester Queens County 77 58 County; lost 151 households and Total 444 257 $10.68 million in AGI to Dutchess Inflows of Households Outflows of Households County and experienced no migratory inflows or outflows with Orange and Sullivan counties. Migration with Rockland and Ulster resulted in a net outflow of eight households. Year-over-year, intraregional inflows fell 5.72 percent; outflows fell 6.30 percent. During the period, inflows into Putnam County from NYC (444) exceeded outflows to NYC (257) by 187 households and $20.21 million in AGI. As is typical in the region, Bronx County accounted for the 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% largest share of inflows from NYC Bronx County $10,722 $3,488 at 53.48 percent (100 households) Kings County $4,722 $1,854 followed by Kings New York County $12,629 $6,563 County (Brooklyn) at 22.46 percent Queens County $6,708 $2,671 (42 households), Total $34,781 $14,576 New York County (Manhattan) at Inflow of AGI in 1000's Outflow of AGI in 1000's 13.90 percent (926 households) and Queens County at 10.16 percent (19 households). Migration with Bronx County produced the largest net inflow of AGI at $7.23 million. Year-over-year, inflows from NYC increased 3.74 percent; outflows to NYC fell 8.21 percent. Interstate3 and Foreign Migration Total interstate and foreign migration into and out of Putnam County resulted in a net loss of 395 households compared to a net loss of 440 households in the 2007-2008 migration period. The net AGI outflow was $30.03 million: $76,013 per household lost. Overall, interstate and foreign outflows exceeded inflows by 87.73 percent. 3 The threshold for releasing county‐to‐county migration data is ten or more households. Any county‐to‐county migration that does not meet this criterion is classified as ‘other’ and added to regional data. The result is an incomplete picture of county‐to‐county and county‐to‐state migratory flows. 11 | P a g e Migration within the northeastern region (sans New York State) represented 17.00 percent of all outflows and 10.00 percent of all inflows. Overall outflows (398) exceeded inflows (212), resulting in a net outflow West Foreign Midwest Putnam County of 186 households and 3% 1% 1% Inflows as % of $14.09 million in AGI. The South Total Inflows largest net outflow was to 7% 2008‐2009 the state of Connecticut at Northeast 107 households and $9.01 (other) million in AGI–of this 10% total, 91 households with $8.26 million in AGI moved to Fairfield County, Connecticut. Migration New York 78% with the state of New Jersey resulted in a net outflow of 33 households and $1.73 million in AGI. The most active county-to-county migration was with Bergen and Hudson counties at 18 and 15 households, respectively. Migration with the state of Massachusetts resulted in a net loss of 13 households. Migration with the southern region of the West Foreign Putnam County U.S. represented 14.00 Midwest 1% Outflows as a % 4% 2% percent of all outflows and of Total Outflows 2008‐2009 7.00 percent of all inflows. For the period, outflows South (314) exceeded inflows 14% (156), resulting in a net outflow of 158 households Northeast New York and $13.00 million in AGI. (other) 62% Migration with the 17% western region of the U.S. represented 4.00 percent of all outflows and 3.00 percent of all inflows. For the period, outflows (100) exceeded inflows (60), resulting in a net outflow of 40 households and $2.27 million in AGI. For the 2008-2009 migration period migration with the midwestern region resulted in a net gain of nine households and $456,000 in AGI. Foreign migration resulted in a net outflow of two households and $217,000 in AGI. 12 | P a g e Rockland County Migration 2008-2009 During the 2008-2009 migration period, outflows from Rockland County (4,965) exceeded inflows into Rockland County (4,080), resulting in a net loss of 885 households and a $72.75 million reduction in adjusted gross income (AGI), compared to a net loss of 1,104 households and a $93.20 million reduction in AGI during the 2007-2008 migration period. Year-over-year, total inflows fell 4.90 percent, outflows fell 7.95 percent and the average AGI of outbound households was 6.13 percent higher than the average AGI of inbound households. Intrastate Migration During the 2008-2009 migration period 54.61 percent of all inflows into Rockland County and 43.93 percent of all 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% outflows from Rockland County Dutchess County 50 63 were intrastate, Orange County 372 507 consistent with the Putnam County 18 16 55.52 percent and Sullivan County 23 24 45.09 percent Ulster County 41 55 witnessed in the 2007-2008 Westchester County 400 352 migration period. Totals 904 1017 Year-over-year, intrastate migration Inflows of Households Outflows of Households resulted in a net gain of 47 households and $20.96 million in AGI compared to a net loss of 50 households and $114,000 in AGI during the 2007-2008 migration period. As is typically the case, intrastate migratory flows were dominated by intraregional–within the Hudson Valley– activity and activity with the 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% five counties of New York City Dutchess County $4,350 $2,648 (NYC). Migration Orange County $28,393 $23,051 within the Hudson Putnam County $978 $1,927 Valley represented Sullivan County $843 $890 40.57 percent of all intrastate Ulster County $2,486 $2,073 inflows and 46.63 Westchester County $24,124 $29,728 percent of all Totals $61,174 $60,317 intrastate outflows. Migration with Inflow of AGI in 1000's Outflow of AGI in 1000's New York City (NYC) accounted for 48.97 percent of all intrastate inflows and 41.63 percent of all intrastate outflows, consistent with the migratory flows witnessed in the 2007-2008 migration period. 13 | P a g e During the 20080% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2009 migration period intraregional Bronx County 333 197 outflows from Kings County 240 164 Rockland County New York County 285 366 (1,017) exceeded intraregional Queens County 207 165 inflows into Richmond County 26 16 Rockland County Totals 1091 908 (904), resulting in a net loss of 113 Inflows of Households Outflows of Households households and $857,000 in AGI. The largest net outflow occurred with Orange County at 135 households and $5.34 million in AGI; migration with Westchester County resulted in a net gain of 48 households and $5.60 million in AGI. Year-over-year, 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% intraregional inflows increased Bronx County $19,482 $7,471 .22 percent; Kings County $12,709 $5,991 outflows fell New York County $25,703 $25,752 12.40 percent. During the 2008Queens County $13,122 $7,328 2009 migration Richmond County $1,657 $890 period inflows Totals $72,673 $47,432 into Rockland County (1,091) Inflow of AGI in 1000's Outflow of AGI in 1000's from NYC exceeded outflows to NYC (908) by 183 households and $25.24 million in AGI. Rockland County gained households from Bronx (136), Kings (76), Queens (42) and Richmond (10) counties and lost 81 households to New York County (Manhattan). Migration with Bronx County produced the largest inflow of AGI at $12.01 million; migration with Queens County produced the highest average AGI: $137,950 per household gained. Year-over-year, total inflows fell 9.61 percent; outflows fell 8.84 percent. Interstate4 and Foreign Migration Total interstate and foreign migration into and out of Rockland County resulted in a net loss of 932 households compared to a net loss of 1,054 households in the 2007-2008 migration period. The net AGI outflow was $93.71 million: $100,547 per household lost. Overall, outflows exceeded inflow by 50.32 percent. 4 The threshold for releasing county‐to‐county migration data is ten or more households. Any county‐to‐county migration that does not meet this criterion is classified as ‘other’ and added to regional data. The result is an incomplete picture of county‐to‐county and county‐to‐state migratory flows. 14 | P a g e Migration within the northeastern region (sans New York State) represented 28.00 percent of all outflows and 23.00 percent of all inflows. Overall outflows (1,405) exceeded inflows (933), resulting in a net outflow Foreign of 472 households and West 1% Rockland County 6% $33.51 million in AGI. Outflows as a % of Total Outflows The largest net outflow 2008‐2009 was to the state of New Jersey at 308 households South and $25.91 million in AGI 18% New York –32.47 percent of this total 44% (100 households) moved Midwest 3% into Bergen County; 17.20 percent (53 households) Northeast moved in Hudson County. (other) The second largest net 28% outflow was to the state of Pennsylvania at 76 households and $3.82 million in AGI, followed by the state of Connecticut at 43 households and $1.46 million in AGI. Migration with the southern region of the U.S. represented 18.00 percent of all outflows and 12.00 percent of all inflows. For the period, West Foreign Rockland County 3% 4% outflows (897) exceeded Inflows as a % of Total Inflows inflows (502), resulting in 2008‐2009 a net outflow of 395 South households and $54.44 12% million in AGI. Midwest 3% Migration with the western region of the U.S. New York represented 6.00 percent of Northeast 55% all outflows and 4.00 (other) percent of all inflows. For 23% the period, outflows (285) exceeded inflows (177), resulting in a net outflow of 108 households and $8.26 million in AGI. Migration with the midwestern region represented 3.00 of all outflows and 3.00 of all inflows. The net result was a loss of 22 households and $245,000 million in AGI. 15 | P a g e Sullivan County Migration 2008-2009 During the 2008-2009 migration period, total outflows from Sullivan County (1,729) exceeded inflows into Sullivan County (1,494), resulting in a net loss of 235 households and a $755,000 decrease in adjusted gross income (AGI), compared to a net loss of 243 households and a $7.54 million decrease in AGI during the 2007-2008 migration period. Year-over-year, total outflows fell 6.24 percent, inflows fell 6.68 percent and the average AGI of inbound households was 14.46 percent higher than the average AGI of outbound households. Intrastate Migration During the period, 70.55 percent of all inflows into Sullivan County and 56.51 percent of all outflows from Sullivan County were intrastate, consistent with the 71.52 percent and 56.13 percent witnessed in the 2007-2008 migration period. Year-over-year, intrastate migration resulted in a net gain of 77 households and $10.24 million in AGI compared to a year-over-year net gain of 110 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% households and $20.00 million in Dutchess County 25 24 AGI in the 2007Orange County 400 416 2008 migration period. As is Rockland County 23 24 typically the case, Ulster County 104 124 intrastate migratory Westchester County 22 43 flows were dominated by Totals 574 631 intraregional–within the Hudson Valley– Inflows of Households Outflows of Households activity and activity with the five counties of New York City (NYC). Intraregional migration accounted for 59.87 percent of all intrastate inflows and 58.75 percent of all intrastate outflows. Migration between Sullivan County and NYC accounted for 24.57 percent of all intrastate inflows into Sullivan County and 21.50 percent of all intrastate outflows from Sullivan County. During the 2008-2009 migration period 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% intraregional inflows into Dutchess County $1,238 $1,015 Sullivan County Orange County $15,661 $16,443 (631) exceeded intraregional Rockland County $890 $843 outflows from Ulster County $4,027 $4,795 Sullivan County Westchester County $608 $2,066 (574), resulting in a net gain of 57 Totals $22,424 $25,162 households and $2.74 million in Inflow of AGI in 1000's Outflow of AGI in 1000's 16 | P a g e AGI. The county gained 21 households and $1.46 million in AGI from Westchester County, 20 households and $768,000 in AGI from Ulster County and 16 households and 782,000 in AGI from Orange 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% County. The county gained one Bronx County 47 36 household from Kings County 86 51 Rockland County, New York County 60 71 lost one household Queens County 51 42 to Dutchess County and experienced no Richmond County 15 10 migratory inflows Totals 259 210 or outflows with Putnam County. Inflows of Households Outflows of Households Year-over-year, intraregional inflows fell 8.82 percent; outflows increased 2.14 percent. During the period, inflows into Sullivan County from NYC (259) exceeded outflows to NYC (210) by 49 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% households and $7.40 million in Bronx County $1,894 $1,210 AGI. As is typical Kings County $4,669 $1,462 in the county, Kings County (Brooklyn) New York County $7,731 $5,675 accounted for the Queens County $3,030 $1,797 largest share of Richmond County $565 $363 inflows from NYC Totals $17,889 $10,507 at 33.20 percent (86 households), Inflow of AGI in 1000's Outflow of AGI in 1000's followed by New York County (Manhattan) at 23.17 percent (60 households) and Queens County at 19.69 percent (51 households). The largest net inflow came from Kings County (Brooklyn) at 35 households and $3.21 million in AGI. Migration with New York County produced the only net outflow at 11 households and AGI of $2.06 million: $187,000 per household lost. Year-over-year, inflows from NYC fell 15.36 percent; outflows to NYC fell 4.98 percent. Interstate5 and Foreign Migration Total interstate and foreign migration into and out of Sullivan County resulted in a net loss of 312 households compared to a net loss of 353 households in the 2007-2008 migration period. The net AGI outflow was $11.00 million: $35,247 per household lost. Overall, interstate and foreign outflows exceeded inflows by 63.75 percent. 5 The threshold for releasing county‐to‐county migration data is ten or more households. Any county‐to‐county migration that does not meet this criterion is classified as ‘other’ and added to regional data. The result is an incomplete picture of county‐to‐county and county‐to‐state migratory flows. 17 | P a g e Migration within the northeastern region (sans New York State) represented 14.00 percent of all outflows and 11.00 percent of all inflows. Overall outflows (244) exceeded inflows (157), resulting in a net outflow Foreign of 87 households and Midwest Sullivan County West 1% 3% Outflows $796,000 in AGI. The 4% as a % of largest net outflows were Total Outflows to Wayne and Pike 2008‐2009 counties in the state of South Pennsylvania at 38 and 28 21% households, respectively. New York 57% Migration with the southern region of the Northeast U.S. represented 21.00 (other) percent of all outflows and 14% 13.00 percent of all inflows. For the period, outflows (371) exceeded inflows (200), resulting in a net outflow of 171 households and $813,700 million in AGI. Migration with the western region of the U.S. represented 4.50 percent of all outflows and 3.00 percent of all inflows. For the period, outflows (75) exceeded inflows (44), resulting in a net outflow of 31 households West Foreign Midwest and $1.55 million in AGI. 3% Sullivan County 2% 1% For the 2008-2009 Inflows migration period, as a % of Total Inflows migration with the South 2008‐2009 midwestern region of the 13% U.S. represented 3.00 Northeast percent of all outflows and (other) 2.00 percent of all inflows. 10% For the period, outflows New York (45) exceeded inflows 72% (26), resulting in a net outflow of 19 households and $1.13 million in AGI. Foreign migration resulted in a net outflow of four households and $404,000 in AGI. 18 | P a g e Ulster County Migration 2008-2009 During the 2008-2009 migration period, outflows from Ulster County (3,807) exceeded inflows to Ulster County (3,263), resulting in a net loss of 544 households and a $734,000 increase in adjusted gross income (AGI), compared to a net loss of 256 households and a $7.40 million increase in AGI during the 2007-2008 migration. Year-over-year, total outflows fell 1.60 percent, total inflows fell 9.69 percent and the average AGI of inbound households was 17.25 percent higher than the average AGI of outbound households. Intrastate Migration During the 2008-2009 migration period 70.61 percent of all inflows into Ulster County and 60.07 percent of all outflows from Ulster County were intrastate, consistent with the 69.33 percent and 57.87 percent witnessed in the 2007-2008 migration period. Year-over-year, intrastate migration 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% resulted in a net gain of 17 Dutchess County 552 510 households and Orange County 533 527 $23.00 million in Putnam County 24 18 AGI compared to a Rockland County 55 41 year-over-year net Sullivan County 104 124 gain of 266 Westchester County 72 54 households and Totals 1340 1274 $36.30 million in AGI in the 2007Inflows of Households Outflows of Households 2008 migration period. As is typically the case, intrastate migratory flows are dominated by intraregional–within the Hudson Valley–activity and activity with the five counties of New York City (NYC). Migration within the Hudson Valley 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% accounted for 58.16 percent of all Dutchess County $22,972 $23,558 intrastate inflows Orange County $21,073 $21,186 and 55.71 percent Putnam County $1,087 $838 of all intrastate Rockland County $2,486 $2,073 outflows. Sullivan County $4,027 $4,795 Migration with Westchester County $5,412 $4,015 (NYC) accounted Totals $57,057 $56,465 for 17.93 percent of all intrastate Inflow of AGI in 1000's Outflow of AGI in 1000's inflows and 13.99 percent intrastate outflows. In both cases, migratory outflows as a percent of total intrastate outflows fell relative to the 2007-2008 migration period. 19 | P a g e During the 20080% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2009 migration period, Bronx County 52 49 intraregional Kings County 115 94 inflows (1,340) New York County 163 93 exceeded Queens County 71 70 intraregional outflows (1,274), Richmond County 12 14 resulting in a net Totals 413 320 gain of 66 households and Inflows of Households Outflows of Households $592,000 of AGI. The largest net inflow occurred with Dutchess County at 42 households, followed by Westchester County at 18 households. Migration with Sullivan County resulted in a net loss of 20 households. Year-overyear, intraregional inflows were down 7.27 percent; outflows were up 5.99 percent. During the 2008-2009 migration period inflows into Ulster County from NYC (413) exceeded outflows to NYC 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% (320), resulting in a net gain of 93 Bronx County $2,389 $1,689 households and Kings County $5,964 $4,062 $27.00 million in AGI. New York New York County $27,261 $5,075 County Queens County $4,640 $2,886 (Manhattan) Richmond County $754 $321 accounted for the Totals $41,008 $14,033 largest share of net inflows at 70 Inflow of AGI in 1000's Outflow of AGI in 1000's households and $22.20 million in AGI: $316,943 per household. Migration with Kings County (Brooklyn) resulted in a net gain of 21 households and $1.90 million in AGI: $90,571 per household. Year-over-year, intraregional inflows were down 10.80 percent; outflows were down 6.43 percent. Interstate6 and Foreign Migration Total inter-state and foreign migration into and out of Ulster County resulted in a net loss of 561 households compared to a net loss of 522 households in the 2007-2008 migration period. The net AGI outflow was $22.24 million: $39,644 per household lost. 6 The threshold for releasing county‐to‐county migration data is ten or more households. Any county‐to‐county migration that does not meet this criterion is added to regional data in a category named ‘other’. The result is an incomplete picture of county‐to‐county and county‐to‐state migratory flows. 20 | P a g e Migration within the northeastern region of the U.S. (sans New York State) represented 71.00 percent of all inflows and 60.00 percent of all outflows. Overall outflows (420) exceeded inflows (311), resulting in a net loss of 109 households and Ulster County West Foreign Outflows as a % of $4.60 million in AGI: 6% 1% Total Outflows $42,193 per household 2008‐2009 lost. The largest net outflow was to the state of South Massachusetts at 48 19% households–migration with the state was evenly New York Midwest 60% divided between 3% Middlesex and Suffolk counties at 24 households Northeast each. The second largest (other) net outflow occurred with 11% the state of Connecticut at 28 households, followed by the state of Pennsylvania at 17 households. Migration with the state of New Jersey resulted in a net gain of 13 households and $1.58 million in AGI. Migration with the southern region of the U.S. represented 11.00 percent of all inflows and 19.00 percent of all outflows. Overall, outflows Ulster County West Foreign 1% Inflows as a % of 5% (727) exceeded inflows Total Inflows (369), resulting in a net 2008‐2009 Midwest outflow of 358 households South 3% and $15.19 million in AGI. 11% Migration with the western region of the U.S. Northeast represented 5.00 percent of (other) 9% all inflows and 6.00 New York percent of all outflows. For 71% the period, outflows (242) exceeded inflows (151), resulting in a net loss of 91 households and $1.43 million in AGI. Migration with the midwestern region of the U.S. accounted for 3.00 percent of all inflows and 3.00 percent of all outflows. The net result was a net loss of 24 households and $614,000 in AGI. 21 | P a g e Westchester County Migration 2008-2009 During the 2008-2009 migration period, outflows from Westchester County (17,477) exceeded inflows into Westchester County (16,680), resulting in a net loss of 797 households and a $60.00 million reduction in adjusted gross income (AGI), compared to a net loss of 1,539 households and a $107.00 million reduction in AGI during the 2007-2008 migration period. Year-over-year, total inflows fell 4.31 percent, outflows fell 7.88 percent and the average AGI of inbound households was 9.32 percent higher than the average AGI of outbound households. Intrastate Migration During the 2008-2009 migration period 60.42 percent of all inflows into Westchester County and 49.65 percent of all outflows from Westchester County were intrastate, consistent with the 60.47 percent and 48.45 percent witnessed 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% in the 2007-2008 Dutchess County 444 696 migration period. Orange County 267 323 Year-over-year, Putnam County 601 804 intrastate migration Rockland County 352 400 resulted in a net Sullivan County 22 43 gain of 1,400 households and Ulster County 54 72 $287.06 million in Total 1740 2338 AGI compared to a Inflows of Households Outflows of Households year-over-year gain of 1,351 households and $295.11 million in AGI in the 2007-2008 migration period. As is typically the case, intrastate migratory flows were dominated by intraregional–within the Hudson Valley– activity and activity with the five 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% counties of New Dutchess County $28,007 $42,845 York City (NYC). Orange County $13,700 $18,749 Intraregional Putnam County $35,124 $53,827 activity accounted Rockland County $24,124 $29,728 for 17.27 percent of all intrastate Sullivan County $608 $2,066 inflows and 26.94 Ulster County $4,015 $5,412 percent of all Total $105,578 $152,627 intrastate outflows. Migration with Inflow of AGI in 1000's Outflow of AGI in 1000's NYC accounted for 73.60 percent of all intrastate inflows and 61.88 percent of all intrastate outflows. In both cases the migratory flows witnessed in the 2008-2009 migration period were consistent with activity in the 2007-2008 migration period. 22 | P a g e During the 2008- 2009 migration period intraregional outflows (2,338) exceeded intraregional inflows (1,740), 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% resulting in a net loss of 598 households Bronx County 3510 2141 and $47.05 million in Kings County 696 646 AGI. The largest net New York County 2206 1869 intraregional outflows occurred Queens County 912 667 with Dutchess Richmond County 93 47 County at 252 Total 7417 5370 households and $14.8 million in Inflows of Households Outflows of Households AGI, followed by Putnam County at 203 households and $18.70 million in AGI. Migration with Orange, Rockland, Sullivan and Ulster counties resulted in a net loss of 143 households and $13.51 million in AGI. Year-overyear, intraregional inflows increased 2.96 percent; outflows fell 10.18 percent. During the 2008-2009 migration period inflows into Westchester County from NYC (7,417) exceeded 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% outflows to NYC (5,370) by 2,047 Bronx County $192,430 $82,577 households and Kings County $56,655 $29,297 $342.71 million in AGI. As is typical in New York County $368,425 $199,459 the region, Bronx Queens County $64,168 $30,431 County accounted for Richmond County $5,265 $2,472 the largest share of Total $686,943 $344,236 net inflows at 66.88 percent (1,369 Inflow of AGI in 1000's Outflow of AGI in 1000's households) followed by New York County (Manhattan) at 16.46 percent (337 households). Migration with New York County (Manhattan) produced the largest net inflow of AGI at $169.00 million: $502,000 per household. Interstate7 and Foreign Migration Total interstate and foreign migration into and out of Westchester County resulted in a net loss of 2,197 households compared to a net loss of 2,890 households in the 2007-2008 migration period. The net AGI outflow was $227.37 million: $103,489 per household lost. Overall, outflows exceeded inflow by 33.28 percent. Migration within the northeastern region (sans New York State) represented 22.00 percent of all outflows and 16.00 percent of all inflows. Overall, outflows (3,782) exceeded inflows (2,601), resulting in a net outflow of 1,181 households and $152.00 million in AGI. 7 The threshold for releasing county‐to‐county migration data is ten or more households. Any county‐to‐county migration that does not meet this criterion is classified as ‘other’ and added to regional data. The result is an incomplete picture of county‐to‐county and county‐to‐state migratory flows. 23 | P a g e The largest net outflow was to the state of Connecticut at 719 households and $111.40 million in AGI–of this total 85.00 percent (612 households) moved into Fairfield County. Average AGI per household lost was Foreign Midwest $159,600. Migration with Westchester County 3% West 2% Outflows the state of New Jersey 6% as a % of resulted in a net loss of Total Outflows 145 households and $2.70 2008‐2009 million in AGI. The most active county-to-county South migration was with Bergen 17% New York County at -75 households 50% and $6.72 million in AGI, Northeast followed by Hudson (other) County at -25 households 22% and $12.48 million in AGI. Westchester County gained 16 households and $2.02 million in AGI from Essex County, New Jersey. Migratory flows with the state of Pennsylvania and the state of Massachusetts resulted in a net outflow of 135 and 118 households, respectively. Migration with the southern region Foreign Midwest Westchester County West 3% of the U.S. represented 4% Inflows 5% 17.00 percent of all as a % of outflows and 12.00 percent Total Inflows of all inflows. For the 2008‐2009 South period, outflows (3,075) 12% exceeded inflows (2,020), resulting in a net outflow Northeast of 1,055 households and New York (other) 60% $70.00 million in AGI. 16% Migration with the western region of the U.S. represented 6.00 percent of all outflows and 5.00 percent of all inflows. For the period, outflows (1,024) exceeded inflows (805), resulting in a net outflow of 219 households and $12.10 million in AGI. Migration with the midwestern region represented 3.00 of all outflows and 3.00 of all inflows. The net result was a loss of 63 households and $3.25 million in AGI. Foreign migration resulted in a net gain of 321 households and $21.02 million in AGI. 24 | P a g e