ECONOMIC REPORT of the HUDSON VALLEY Second Quarter 2009 MARIST COLLEGE Dr. Christy Huebner Caridi Bureau of Economic Research School of Management Poughkeepsie, New York 12601 Edited by Dana Gavin, M.A. September 2009 This report is available on the Bureau of Economic Research homepage at http://www.marist.edu/management/bureau The support of research assistants Daniel Greco, Trey Savage, Amanda Pfister and Serena Bubenheim is acknowledged and appreciated. While every effort has been made to ensure that the information in this report is accurate, Marist College cannot be held responsible for any remaining errors. TEXT Introduction DATA 1-10 Employment by Place of Residence 11-13 Non-Farm Employment by Place of Work 14-21 Total U.S. Non-Farm Employment 22 U.S. Manufacturing: Hours, Hourly and Weekly Wages 23-26 Income Maintenance Payments 27-32 Home Sales, Prices, and Permits 33-38 Regional Inflation 39-40 Sales Tax Collection 41 Economic Report of the Hudson Valley National Review The September jobs report brings into question the recent suggestion that the longest recession since the Great Depression ended in June of this year. GDP has been and will be positively impacted by inventory investment, government deficit spending and the continued weakness in the demand for imported goods. However, consumption and real estate investment (both residential and commercial) remains weak. The household sector, racked by uncertainty, is intent on rebuilding savings and paying down existing debt. This “new” consumer will not—a behavioral shift—and can not—credit restrictions—lead a job-creating economic recovery. That said, every indicator points to a repeat of the jobless recovery experienced after the 2001 recession. The Business Roundtable reports that only 13.00% of its members expect to hire over the next six months. If this expectation holds, unemployment will rise well above the 10% mark and will not begin to edge downward until the second half of 2010. Uncertainty in the domestic labor market coupled with anemic consumption demand has directly impacted and will continue to directly impact the willingness of firms to add to their domestic capital stock. Domestic investment in plants, equipment and software is an important engine of economic growth and job creation. If investment does not close the deflationary gap, then the gap must be filled by the government and/or foreign sectors. Growth in the government sector will require political will; growth in the foreign sector is dependent on world growth and the willingness to defend the dollar in the international exchange markets. Regional Review Employment in seven of the nine Hudson Valley counties reached a near-term peak during the third quarter of 2008. Dutchess and Putnam reached peak employment in December in 2007—the final month of the economic expansion. During the recession, there has been a continuous expansion in the number of Hudson Valley residents in the labor force. Across the region, the labor force has grown from 1.2 million participants in December of 2007 to 1.25 million participants in July of 2009—a 3.93% increase. Over the same time period, labor force participation in the U.S. and New York State increased 2.04% and 4.06%, respectively. An explanation for the increase in the level of the labor force is the desire to rebuild savings balances, repay outstanding consumer debt and supplement household income. Because labor force participation has grown while employment opportunities have waned, the region has experienced a significant increase in the number of Hudson Valley residents willing and able to work but unable to secure employment. As of July 2009, the gap between the regional labor force and regional employment opportunities was 240,000. Across the region and on average, residents in the Putnam-RocklandWestchester metropolitan statistical area (MSA)—lower Hudson Valley—have experienced a lower level of joblessness compared to the rest of the region. Since December of 2007, total non-farm employment in the Hudson Valley has fallen 2.80%, from 981,000 in December of 2007 to 953,500 in July of 2009. Private employment has declined 3.37%. Employment in the government sector fell .03%. Of these totals, the largest level decline occurred in the service-providing sector at 19,000. Goods-producing employment fell 8,600 with the largest contractions occurring in the 1 Rockland-Westchester-Putnam and the Dutchess-Orange MSAs at 2,400 and 2,600, respectively. Overall, employment in the goods-producing industries—which currently represents 11.64% of all employment—has fallen 7.20% compared to a 2.20% decline in the service-providing industries. Concomitant with the decline in the level of national and regional employment has been a subtle shift away from goods-producing employment toward service-providing; and a general reduction in average weekly wages. Between December 2007 and July of the current year, the share of non-farm employment represented by the goods-producing industries—manufacturing and construction—has fallen 8.47% nationwide and 4.51% in the Hudson Valley. These declines are directly attributable to the crisis in the residential and commercial real estate sectors and the widespread reduction in the demand for consumption and capital goods. Two bright spots in the employment picture are education and health services and leisure and hospitality. Sales of existing family homes fell 18.22% between the second quarter of 2008 and the second quarter of 2009. Between the first and second quarters of the current year, the number of home sales increased 46.72%, from 1,661 in the first quarter to 2,437 in the second quarter. In New York State, existing home sales recorded a quarter-overquarter decline of 10.68%. Sales in the second quarter of 2009 increased 55.42% relative to the first three months of the year. The number of homes sold peaked in the third quarter of 2004 at 6,476 units. The average selling price of an existing single-family home peaked during the third quarter of 2007 at $634,323. The lag between the peak in sales activity and the peak selling price is directly attributable to the sales volume in highend homes. Each county in the region recorded a substantial increase in home sales activity between the first and second quarters of the current year. Over the same time period, the average and median selling price of an existing single-family home increased from its near-term low in Columbia, Greene, Orange, Rockland and Westchester counties. The average and median selling price of an existing single-family home in Dutchess, Putnam and Sullivan continued to decline. In Ulster County, median housing values have risen relative to the near-term low recorded in the first quarter of 2009; average selling prices continue to decline. In Putnam and Ulster, the rate of decline in average housing values is falling. In Dutchess and Sullivan, the rate of decline accelerated between the first and second quarters of the current year. The balance of the region experienced positive increases in average housing values between the first and second quarters of the current year. Nationwide, average and median selling prices rose between the first and second quarters; in New York State, median housing values rose; average housing values continued to decline; however, the rate of decline is falling. Weakness in the national and regional housing sectors has lead to a virtual shutdown in new home construction. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, across the Hudson Valley, 493 single-family home construction permits were issued during the first seven months of the year; 80 multifamily unit construction permits were issued. At this current rate of activity, housing construction in the region will have recorded a substantial year-over-year decline. It should be noted that monthly county-level permit data is highly unreliable. That said, while there is every indication of a substantial contraction in new home construction, there is insufficient information to project a range. At present, singlefamily home construction nationwide and in New York State is down year-over-year 35.60% and 32.94%, respectively. 2 Hudson Valley Labor Force ► Since the peak of the business cycle: The Hudson Valley labor force has expanded 3.93%, the U.S. labor force has grown 2.04%, and the regional unemployment rate has increased 93.47%. Throughout the Quarte r-to-Quarte r % Change (from Pre vious Ye ar) in Labor Force current recession, there for the Huds on Valle y 2004:01- 2009:02 has been a continuous 12.00% expansion in the number 10.00% of Hudson Valley 8.00% residents 1 in the labor 6.00% force, willing and able to 4.00% work. Across the region, 2.00% the labor force has grown 0.00% from 1.2 million 2.00%4.00%participants in December 6.00%of 2007 (the peak of the 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 business cycle) to 1.25 Hudson Valley New York State United States million participants in July of 2009—a 3.93% increase. Over the same time period, labor force participation in the U.S. and New York State increased 2.04% and 4.06%, respectively. The largest single increase occurred in Sullivan County at 7.84%, followed by Columbia and Rockland at 5.88% and 5.24%, respectively. The smallest increases occurred in Ulster (.24%) and Dutchess (.97%). Since December of 2007, overall employment has fallen by .05%. The largest percentage declines occurred in Dutchess and Ulster counties at 3.32% and 3.70%, respectively. Employment in Orange County experienced a 1.51% reduction. Across the remainder of the region, employment expanded. Because labor force participation grew by more than the increase in (non-farm) employment, the unemployment rate for Hudson Valley residents has increased 93.47% since the peak of the business cycle: the unemployment rate nationwide has increased 94.00%; employment in New York State has expanded 101.19%. Compared to the rest of the region and on average, residents in the Putnam-Rockland-Westchester MSA—lower Hudson Valley—have experienced a lower rate of joblessness during the current recession. 1 For the purposes of this report, the Hudson Valley is defined as Columbia, Dutchess, Greene, Orange, Putnam, Rockland, Sullivan, Ulster and Westchester counties. The New York State Department of Labor classifies Columbia and Greene counties as members of the capital region. 3 Non-Farm Employment by Place of Work2 ►Since the peak of the business cycle, employment in the Hudson Valley has fallen by 27,600 jobs—a 2.80% decline. Goods-producing industries reduced employment by 8,600 jobs; service-providing industries shed 19,000 jobs. Employment in the government sector fell by 600. Since December of 2007, total non-farm employment in the Hudson Valley has fallen 2.80%, from 981,000 in December of 2007 to 953,500 in July of 2009. Private employment has declined 3.37%. Employment in the government sector fell .03%. Of these totals, the largest level decline occurred in the service-providing sector at 19,000. Goods-producing employment fell 8,600 with the largest contractions occurring in the Rockland-Westchester-Putnam and the Dutchess-Orange MSAs at 2,400 and 2,600, respectively. Overall, employment in the goods-producing industries—which currently represents 11.64% of all employment—has fallen 7.20% compared to a 2.20% decline in the service-providing industries. Nationwide, total non-farm employment has fallen (5.53%) from 139 Change in share of Employment as a Percent of Non-Farm Employment: million in December December 2007 - July 2009 of 2007 to 132 4.00% 2.53% 3.00% million in July of 1.36% 2.00% 0.63% 0.40% the current year. 0.00% Goods-producing -2.00% -0.92% employment— -4.00% -3.75% -4.51% which currently -6.00% -8.00% represents 14.50% -7.17% -8.47% -8.76% -10.00% of total -9.61% -12.00% employment—has Government Service Providing Goods Producing Manufacturing fallen 13.19%; Hudson Valley NYS U.S. employment in the service providing industries has declined 4.23%. Concomitant with the decline in the level of national and regional employment has been a subtle shift away from goods-producing employment toward serviceproviding. Between December 2007 and July of the current year, the share of non-farm employment represented by the goods-producing industries—manufacturing and construction—has fallen 8.47% nationwide and 4.51% in the Hudson Valley. These declines are directly attributable to the crisis in the residential and commercial real estate sectors and the widespread reduction in the demand for consumption and capital goods. Two bright spots in the employment picture are education and health services and leisure and hospitality. 2 Current Employment Statistics (CES): survey of sample employers excludes self-employed, agricultural, domestic workers and the military. Place of Work Series. 4 Non-Farm Employment by Place of Work and Average Weekly Wage3 Trends ► Average Weekly Wages fall with the contraction of employment In the Rockland-Westchester-Putnam, NY MSA, non-farm, goods-producing and service-providing employment all peaked in December of 2007 and reached a nearterm low in the first quarter of 2009. In all three counties, first-quarter 2009 average weekly non-farm wages were down relative to average weekly wages in the fourth quarter of 2007. Average weekly wages (AWW) during the first quarter of 2009—in the goods-producing industries— Average Weekly Wages were down in Putnam and up Goods Service in Rockland and Westchester. Nonfarm Government Producing Providing Over the same time period, Putnam AWW were down across all 2007:04 $891 $1,058 $1,098 $849 three counties. In Rockland 2008:02 $870 $1,314 $973 $858 County, AWW in the non-farm 2009:01 $830 $1,144 $931 $805 sector were down 2.42%, Rockland AWW in the service sector 2007:04 $951 $985 $1,281 $889 were up 10.96% and AWW in 2008:02 $915 $1,117 $1,238 $860 the goods sector were down 2009:01 $928 $1,029 $1,421 $845 4.98%. In Westchester County, Westchester AWW in the non-farm sector 2007:04 $1,249 $1,196 $1,524 $1,219 were down 2.01%, AWW in 2008:02 $1,138 $1,349 $1,450 $1,100 the service sector were down 2009:01 $1,224 $1,192 $1,523 $1,196 .04% and AWW in the goods sector were down 1.87%. In Putnam County, AWW in the non-farm sector were down 6.80%, AWW in the service sector were up 15.20% and AWW in the goods sector were down 5.23%. Average Weekly Wages In the PoughkeepsieGoods Service Newburgh-Middletown, NY Nonfarm Government Producing Providing MSA (Dutchess and Orange Orange counties), non-farm and 2007:04 $748 $934 $865 $716 service-sector employment 2008:02 $753 $1,080 $830 $726 peaked in December of 2007 2009:01 $727 $948 $821 $694 and have yet to reach a nearterm low. Employment in the Dutchess goods-producing industries 2007:04 $876 $905 $1,496 $727 peaked in the third quarter of 2008:02 $884 $1,074 $1,482 $735 2008 and continues to decline. 2009:01 $902 $952 $1,707 $729 In direct opposition to the employment trend, AWW in Dutchess County were up in the first quarter of 2009 relative to the fourth quarter of 2007. The largest single increase occurred in the goods3 Average weekly wage data was secured through a special request of the New York State Department of Labor. 5 producing sector: in this sector, AWW were up 14.13% relative to the fourth quarter of 2007. In contrast, AWW in Orange County fell relative to the fourth quarter of 2007. Non-farm AWW were down 3.41%, goods-producing AWW were down 1.03% and AWW in the service sector were down 4.41%. Average Weekly Wages Goods Nonfarm Government Producing Service Providing Ulster 2007:04 $694 $876 $834 $650 2008:02 $709 $1,030 $822 $667 2009:01 $674 $920 $782 $635 2007:04 $666 $646 $813 $634 2008:02 $647 $717 $779 $613 Columbia Across the balance of the 2009:01 $627 $662 $725 $604 region, which includes the Greene Kingston, NY MSA (Ulster 2007:04 $644 $780 $884 $549 County), Columbia, Greene and 2008:02 $673 $910 $867 $575 Sullivan counties, employment 2009:01 $633 $812 $912 $532 peaked in the second quarter of Sullivan 2008. AWW in the non-farm 2007:04 $664 $855 $649 $637 sector peaked in the second 2008:02 $683 $981 $646 $659 quarter in 2008 in Ulster, Greene and Sullivan counties. In 2009:01 $672 $882 $593 $653 Columbia County, AWW peaked during the fourth quarter of 2007. In Greene County, employment in the goodsproducing industries peaked in the third quarter of 2008. In contrast, in first-quarter 2009, AWW were at a near-term high. Across the balance of the area, AWW in the goodsproducing industries are at a near-term low. AWW in the service-providing industries peaked in the second quarter of 2008, with the exception of Columbia. In Columbia County, AWW in the service-providing industries peaked during the fourth quarter of 2007. Monthly Income Maintenance Benefits (Social Assistance) ►Since the beginning of the recession, food-stamp recipients and expenditures have advanced 28.85% and 39.95%, respectively. ►Total Temporary Assistance records a smaller increase. The average monthly number of food-stamp recipients in the second quarter of 2009 increased 28.85% relative to December of 2007, from 123,000 recipients in December of 2007 to a second-quarter monthly average of 158,000. Over the same time frame, food-stamp expenditures, across the region, advanced 39.95%. In New York State, food-stamp expenditures increased 42.77% and the number of recipients advanced 30.46%. The number of total Temporary Assistance recipients—which includes Family Assistance and Safety Net Assistance—recorded an 11.19% in the Hudson Valley and a 1.24% increase in New York State. Expenditures advanced 6.75% in the Hudson Valley and 1.86% statewide. 6 Within the region, every county recorded a double-digit increase in the number of food-stamp recipients; Temporary Assistance recipients grew at a double-digit pace in all but Westchester, Rockland and Putnam counties. Putnam County reported a small decline of 12 recipients. Home Sales, Prices and Building Permits ► Second-quarter homes sales were up 46.72% relative to the first quarter of 2009 and average housing prices increased 6.50%. ►Over the same period, the median selling price of a single-family home fell in Dutchess and Putnam counties. ►Across the Hudson Valley, average housing values are down 19.49% quarter-over-quarter. ► Residential construction remains weak. # Homes Sold Average Sales Price Sales of existing family homes fell 18.22% between the second quarter of 2008 and the second quarter of 2009. Between the first and second quarters of the current year, the number of home sales increased 46.72%, from 1,661 in the first quarter to 2,437 in the second quarter. In Huds on Valle y Ave rage Sale s Price Tre nd: New York State, Data Source NYSAR: 2000:1-2009:2 existing home sales $700,000 7000 6,476 recorded a quarter-over$650,000 6000 $634,323 $600,000 quarter decline of 5000 $550,000 10.68%. Sales in the 4000 $500,000 second quarter of 2009 $450,000 3000 increased 55.42% $400,000 2000 relative to the first three $350,000 1000 months of the year. $300,000 $250,000 0 The number of homes 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 sold peaked in the third Average Home Sales Price Total Homes Sales quarter of 2004 at 6,476 units. The average selling price of an existing single-family home peaked during the third quarter of 2007 at $634,323. The lag between the peak in sales activity and the peak selling price is directly attributable to the sales volume in high-end homes. Each county in the region recorded a substantial increase in home-sales activity between the first and second quarters of the current year. Over the same time period, the average and median selling price of an existing single-family home increased from its near-term low in Columbia, Greene, Orange, Rockland and Westchester counties. The average and median selling price of an existing single family home in Dutchess, Putnam and Sullivan continued to decline. In Ulster County, median housing values have risen relative to the near-term low recorded in the first quarter of 2009; average selling prices continue to decline. In Putnam and Ulster, the rate of decline in average housing values is falling. In Dutchess and Sullivan, the rate of decline accelerated between the first and second quarters of the current year. The balance of the region experienced positive increases in average housing values between the first and second quarters of the current 7 year. Nationwide, average and median selling prices rose between the first and second quarters; in New York State, median housing values rose, and average housing values continued to decline; however, the rate of decline is falling. Weakness in the national and regional housing sectors has led to a virtual shutdown in new home construction. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, across the Hudson Valley, 493 single-family home construction permits were issued during the first seven months of the year; 80 multifamily-unit construction permits were issued. At this current rate of activity, housing construction in the region will have recorded a substantial year-over-year decline. It should be noted that monthly county-level permit data is highly unreliable. That said, while there is every indication of a substantial contraction in new home construction, there is insufficient information to project a range. At present, singlefamily home construction nationwide and in New York State is down year-over-year 35.60% and 32.94%, respectively. Across the region, the largest multifamily project is a $23 million, 170-unit onebuilding complex in Yonkers, Westchester. All other multifamily projects in the region are nine- to two-unit single buildings. Of the smaller projects, Orange County reported the most activity, with 12 single-building multifamily complexes. The average construction cost of the smaller projects is $390,000 per building, $97,000 per unit. County Orange Multi-Family Construction Permits January - July 2009: Source U.S. Census Bureau Value of Average Number of Number of Construction Construction Town/Village Building Units Permit Cost per Unit Kiryas Joel Village 6 34 $3,689,445 Montgomery Village 1 5 $255,208 $108,513 $51,042 Montgomery Village 2 10 $510,416 $51,042 Wallkill Town 2 6 $784,348 $130,725 Wawayanda Town 1 5 $409,657 $81,931 12 60 $5,649,074 Sullivan Fallsburg Town 3 6 $200,806 $33,468 Thompson Town 2 4 $130,000 $32,500 5 10 $330,806 Rockland Spring Valley Village 1 2 $240,000 Kaser Village 1 7 $663,194 $120,000 $94,742 Ramapo Town 1 3 $535,200 $178,400 3 12 $1,438,394 Yonkers 3 174 $22,978,550 $132,061 White Plains 1 6 $600,000 $100,000 4 180 $23,578,550 Westchester Ulster Saugerties Town 1 2 $215,000 $107,500 Shawangunk Town 1 2 $260,000 $130,000 2 4 $475,000 8 Regional Inflation ► Regional inflation exceeds the U.S. city average ►Food, energy, gasoline and service prices fall The all-item CPI (prices of all goods and services) in the New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island MSA decreased .02% between the second quarter of 2008 and the second quarter of 2009. Year-Over-Year Change in Inflation Of this total, food increased 3.09%, owners’ equivalent 6.00% rent increased 3.12%, 5.00% medical advanced .49% and 4.00% household energy and 3.00% gasoline declined 9.98% 2.00% 1.00% and 37.42%, respectively. 0.00% Over the same time period, -1.00% core inflation—all items -2.00% less food and energy— Dec Jan Jan 2007 2008 2009 increased 2.32%. The all% Change NY/NJ CPI-U % Change US Cities CPI-U item CPI index for the U.S. City Average declined 1.15% between the second quarter of 2008 and the second quarter of 2009. Of this total, food increased 2.72%, owners’ equivalent rent increased 2.03%, medical advanced 1.55% and household energy and gasoline declined 12.70% and 30.00%, respectively. Over the same time period, core inflation—all items less food and energy—increased 2.32%. Historically, food and housing has the largest impact on the typical household budget at 30% of total personal expenditures, followed by medical costs at 18% of total personal expenditures. 12 Month Quarter-to Quarter Percentage Change New York-Northern NJ- Long Island Aug 09 2009:02 2009:01 2008:04 Aug 09 U.S. City Average 2009:02 2009:01 2008:04 Core 1.40% 2.32% 2.62% 2.96% 1.40% 1.82% 1.74% 1.99% All Items -.09% .02% 1.30% 2.69% -1.50% -1.15% -.067% 1.60% Food Rent Primary Residence Owners Equivalent Rent .90% 3.09% 5.53% 6.54% .40% 2.72% 4.83% 6.06% 3.00% 5.11% 5.37% 5.52% 2.00% 2.91% 3.30% 3.56% 2.20% 3.12% 3.47% 3.47% 1.70% 2.03% 2.13% 2.27% Household Energy -16.5% -9.98% .19% 6.86% -12.7% -8.17% 2.54% 7.92% Gasoline -28.5% -37.42% -38.73% -18.53% -30.00% -24.77% -38.43 -20.17% Medical .30% .49% .10% 1.13% 3.33% 2.72% 2.73% 3.13% Services 1.0% 2.40% 3.43% 3.70% .70% 1.55% 2.60% 3.24% 9 Sales Tax Collection One indicator of Percent Change in Sales Tax Collection: 2008:02-2009:02 retail sales activity is sales 3.66% tax collection. Across the region, total sales tax 0.26% 0.01% collection declined 8.16% year-over-year. Within the region, year-over-year sales -5.59% tax collection was for all -7.65% -8.16% -9.20% -9.45% intents and purposes unchanged in Columbia and -13.43% -13.57% Sullivan. Sales tax C o lumbia D utchess Greene Orange P utnam R o ckland Sullivan Ulster Westchester H udso n Valley collection increased 3.66% in Rockland and witnessed double-digit declines in Putnam and Westchester. Ω 10 Labor Force, Employment and the Unemployment Rate for Hudson Valley Counties Average Quarterly 2008:02 - 2009:02 2009 2008 2007 % Change % Change County Columbia Jul-09 32,087 31,207 5.88% 0.00% Employment 30,562 29,597 28,683 29,668 31,055 30,645 29,855 2.37% -1.59% 7.5% 7.41% 7.80% 5.30% 4.85% 4.49% 5.90% 27.12% Labor Force 149,226 147,577 146,743 146,713 148,195 147,052 147,794 0.97% 0.00% Employment 137,329 136,569 135,592 138,435 140,244 140,023 142,049 -3.32% -3.32% 8.0% 7.46% 7.60% 5.64% 5.37% 4.78% 3.90% 105.13% Labor Force 25,090 24,015 24,447 23,811 24,850 24,113 24,202 3.67% 0.00% Employment 23,022 21,927 22,286 22,216 23,432 22,788 22,970 0.23% -1.75% 8.2% 8.73% 8.80% 6.70% 5.70% 5.50% 5.10% 60.78% Labor Force 183,691 181,939 180,463 180,561 182,294 180,939 178,558 2.87% 0.00% Employment 168,462 167,530 166,333 169,819 172,039 171,767 171,049 -1.51% -2.08% 8.3% 7.93% 7.87% 5.97% 5.60% 5.07% 4.20% 97.62% Labor Force 58,062 56,634 55,955 56,038 57,220 56,458 56,380 2.98% 0.00% Employment 54,064 52,913 52,295 53,318 54,513 54,121 54,534 -0.86% -0.86% 6.9% 6.57% 6.57% 4.83% 4.73% 4.13% 3.30% 109.09% Labor Force 160,577 156,412 154,145 154,740 158,126 155,815 152,444 5.34% 0.00% Employment 148,707 145,541 143,841 146,655 149,941 148,864 146,690 1.38% -0.82% 7.4% 6.97% 6.70% 5.23% 5.17% 4.43% 3.80% 94.74% Labor Force 37,714 35,712 35,016 35,396 37,139 35,682 34,973 7.84% 0.00% Employment 34,718 32,646 31,463 32,777 34,914 33,532 32,970 5.30% -0.56% 7.9% 8.57% 9.77% 7.40% 6.00% 6.03% 5.60% 41.07% Labor Force 92,613 91,726 90,204 90,115 91,150 91,301 92,391 0.24% 0.00% Employment 85,114 84,777 83,017 84,734 85,924 86,759 88,385 -3.70% -3.70% 8.1% 7.74% 7.97% 5.97% 5.73% 4.97% 4.30% 88.37% Unemployment Rate Ulster 12-07:7-09 From Peak 32,637 Unemployment Rate Sullivan Dec-07 31,329 Unemployment Rate Rockland 2nd 31,108 Unemployment Rate Putnam 3rd 31,965 Unemployment Rate Orange 4th 33,043 Unemployment Rate Greene 1st Labor Force Unemployment Rate Dutchess 2nd Unemployment Rate Source: New York State Dept. of Labor Place of Residence Series Compiled by the Marist College Bureau of Economic Research, School of Management, Marist College 11 9/29/2009 Labor Force, Employment and the Unemployment Rate for Hudson Valley Counties Average Quarterly 2008:02 - 2009:02 2009 2008 2007 % Change % Change County Westchester Jul-09 Columbia and Greene 12-07:7-09 From Peak 503,320 496,161 485,933 5.20% 0.00% Employment 473,871 463,784 458,365 467,332 477,803 474,370 467,908 1.27% -0.82% 7.3% 7.00% 7.13% 5.33% 5.07% 4.37% 3.70% 97.30% Labor Force 1,251,224 1,224,701 1,211,704 1,212,489 1,234,932 1,219,610 1,203,882 3.93% 0.00% Employment 1,155,849 1,135,283 1,121,876 1,144,955 1,169,865 1,162,870 1,156,410 -0.05% -1.20% 7.62% 7.30% 7.41% 5.57% 5.27% 4.65% 3.94% 93.47% Labor Force 9,923,586 9,756,928 9,698,652 9,691,113 9,769,982 9,656,840 9,536,673 4.06% 0.00% Employment 9,066,268 8,974,394 8,919,843 9,090,485 9,224,597 9,188,920 9,087,015 -0.23% -1.72% 9.46% 8.00% 8.03% 6.20% 5.60% 4.83% 4.70% 101.19% Labor Force 156,255,000 154,697,000 153,659,000 154,615,333 154,509,000 154,293,667 153,124,000 2.04% 0.00% Employment 141,055,000 140,591,667 140,124,667 144,230,333 145,517,000 146,089,333 146,211,000 -3.53% -3.53% 9.7% 9.13% 8.80% 4.40% 5.97% 5.33% 5% 94.00% Labor Force 729,847 711,768 703,724 704,564 718,667 708,435 694,757 5.05% 0.00% Employment 676,642 662,238 654,501 667,305 682,256 677,355 669,132 1.12% -0.82% 7.29% 6.96% 6.99% 5.29% 5.07% 4.39% 3.69% 97.65% Labor Force 4,083,500 4,003,160 3,987,673 3,980,255 3,973,498 3,923,762 3,872,009 5.46% 0.00% Employment 3,681,400 3,658,637 3,670,122 3,714,793 3,739,395 3,736,350 3,672,236 0.25% -1.55% 9.8% 8.60% 7.97% 6.70% 5.87% 4.77% 5.20% 88.46% Labor Force 521,377 512,934 507,980 507,925 516,265 511,175 509,125 2.41% 0.00% Employment 479,207 473,045 467,375 477,650 487,609 485,514 487,278 -1.66% -1.72% Unemployment Rate 8.09% 7.78% 7.99% 5.96% 5.55% 5.02% 4.29% 88.49% Labor Force 58,133 55,980 55,555 55,140 57,487 56,200 55,409 4.92% 0.00% Employment 53,584 51,524 50,969 51,884 54,487 53,433 52,825 1.44% -1.66% Unemployment Rate 7.83% 7.96% 8.25% 5.90% 5.22% 4.92% 4.66% 67.80% Unemployment Rate Upper Hudson Valley Dec-07 493,786 Unemployment Rate New York City 2nd 493,624 Unemployment Rate Lower Hudson Valley 3rd 498,721 Unemployment Rate U.S. 4th 511,208 Unemployment Rate New York State 1st Labor Force Unemployment Rate Total Hudson Valley 2nd Albany- Labor Force 463,253 459,134 456,197 454,556 462,837 460,557 449,812 2.99% 0.00% Schenectady-Troy Employment 430,396 427,300 422,844 430,170 439,744 439,229 431,374 -0.23% -2.13% 7.10% 6.93% 7.33% 5.37% 5.00% 4.63% 4.10% 73.17% Unemployment Rate Source: New York State Dept. of Labor Place of Residence Series Compiled by the Marist College Bureau of Economic Research, School of Management, Marist College 12 9/29/2009 Quarter-to-Quarter % Change (from Previous Year) in Labor Force for the Hudson Valley 2001:01- 2009:02 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 2.00%4.00%6.00%2001 2002 2003 Hudson Valley 2004 2005 New York State Source: NYS Department of Labor Place of Residence Series Compiled by Bureau of Economic Research, School of Management, Marist College 2006 2007 2008 2009 United States 9/29/2009 13 Employment Data by Industry: Levels CES Data (,000) MSAs Rockland/Westchester/ Putnam Dutchess/Orange United States Jul-09 Dec-07 21,282.0 22,738.0 100.1 97.5 50.2 52.4 Federal Government 2,859.0 2,757.0 5.5 5.5 6.6 State Government 4,867.0 5,242.0 14.5 14.2 Local Government 0.1 0.1 80.1 13,556.0 14,739.0 19,015.0 Total Government Local Government Education Goods Producing Service-Providing Jul-09 Dec-07 Jul-09 Dec-07 Minor Counties Columbia Jul-09 5.0 Greene Dec-07 5.3 Jul-09 4.9 Sullivan Dec-07 4.8 Jul-09 6.5 Ulster Dec-07 6.7 Jul-09 Dec-07 15.2 15.8 6.4 0.4 0.5 9.3 9.6 4.7 4.8 77.8 34.3 36.4 10.1 10.5 36.9 45.5 19.7 23.3 4.8 6.3 21,904.0 66.9 71.0 30.3 33.9 2.6 2.9 1.8 1.9 2.9 2.8 6.5 7.1 112,167.0 116,971.0 512.4 522.2 217.3 223.6 18.7 18.7 13.3 13.6 25.2 23.6 55.6 57.2 Manufacturing 11,850.0 13,776.0 29.3 31.7 18.7 22.0 1.5 1.8 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.4 3.7 4.2 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 25,177.0 27,379.0 104.3 116.4 54.2 56.1 3.7 3.9 3.1 3.3 4.4 4.5 11.8 13.4 Wholesale Trade 5,699.0 6,053.7 23.6 24.8 9.3 9.8 1.3 1.4 Transportation and Warehousing 4,166.7 4,612.6 16.2 18.9 8.0 9.0 1.4 1.9 Retail Trade 14,741.0 16,156.4 64.5 72.7 35.7 36.1 9.1 10.1 Information 2,847.0 3,039.0 15.1 16.2 4.6 4.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.0 1.1 Financial Activities 7,805.0 8,232.0 35.8 36.9 9.2 9.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.3 1.4 2.5 2.7 Finance and Insurance 5,769.3 6,078.5 23.6 24.8 6.1 6.7 Professional and Business Services 7,587.7 7,839.9 71.5 73.8 21.1 21.2 1.5 1.7 0.5 0.6 1.4 1.5 4.4 4.4 13,851.0 13,244.0 47.5 42.7 20.8 19.5 2.2 1.6 2.6 2.5 4.3 2.4 7.5 6.8 Health Care and Social Assistance Leisure and Hospitality Data Source: New York State Department of Labor Complied by: Marist College SOM, Bureau of Economic Research 14 10/1/2009 Employment Data by Industry: Percent of Non-Farm Employment CES Data United States Jul-09 Total Government Dec-07 MSAs Rockland/Westchester/ Putnam Dutchess/Orange Jul-09 Dec-07 Jul-09 Dec-07 16.22% 16.37% 17.28% 16.44% 20.27% 20.15% Federal Government 2.18% 1.99% 0.95% 0.93% 2.67% State Government 3.71% 3.77% 2.50% 2.39% Local Government 10.33% 10.61% 13.83% 5.22% 6.04% Goods Producing 14.50% Service-Providing Minor Counties Columbia Jul-09 31.17% Jul-09 23.13% Dec-07 25.38% Jul-09 Dec-07 2.46% 0.64% 0.01% 3.76% 3.69% 7.57% 7.47% 13.12% 13.85% 13.99% 16.26% 16.33% 6.37% 7.67% 7.96% 8.96% 7.73% 9.79% 15.70% 11.55% 11.97% 12.24% 13.03% 12.21% 13.43% 11.92% 12.33% 10.32% 10.60% 10.47% 11.02% 85.39% 14.34% 88.45% 88.03% 87.76% 86.97% 87.79% 86.57% 88.07% 88.30% 89.68% 89.39% 89.53% 88.90% 9.05% 9.92% 5.06% 5.34% 7.55% 8.30% 7.04% 8.33% 6.62% 6.49% 4.98% 5.30% 5.96% 6.53% 19.19% 19.71% 18.00% 19.62% 21.89% 22.71% 17.37% 18.06% 20.05% 21.42% 15.66% 17.04% 19.00% 20.83% Wholesale Trade 4.61% 4.36% 4.07% 4.18% 3.76% 3.88% 2.09% 2.18% Transportation and Warehousing 3.18% 11.63% 2.80% 3.19% 3.23% 4.08% 2.25% 2.95% Retail Trade 11.24% 3.32% 11.13% 12.26% 14.42% 14.99% 14.65% 15.70% Information 2.17% 2.19% 2.61% 2.73% 1.86% 1.77% 1.41% 1.39% 1.30% 1.07% 0.76% 1.61% 1.71% Financial Activities 5.95% 5.93% 6.18% 6.22% 3.72% 3.77% 2.82% 2.78% 2.59% 4.60% 5.30% 4.26% 4.20% Finance and Insurance 4.30% 4.38% 4.07% 4.18% 2.46% 2.58% Professional and Business Services 5.78% 5.65% 12.34% 12.44% 8.52% 8.15% 7.04% 7.87% 3.31% 3.89% 4.98% 5.68% 7.08% 6.84% 10.44% 9.54% 8.20% 7.20% 8.40% 7.50% 10.33% 7.41% 17.21% 16.23% 15.30% 9.09% 12.08% 10.57% Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 32.45% Dec-07 Ulster 24.57% Manufacturing 24.54% Jul-09 Sullivan 24.48% Local Government Education 23.47% Dec-07 Greene Health Care and Social Assistance Leisure and Hospitality Data Source: New York State Department of Labor Complied By: Marist College, SOM, Bureau of Economic Research 15 10/1/2009 Dutchess and Orange Counties: Employment Data by Industry: CES Data Quarterly Data are Averages of Monthly Data Total Nonfarm Total Private Total Government Federal Government State Government Local Government Local Government Education Goods Producing Service-Providing Private Service-Providing Public Service-Providing Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Transportation and Warehousing Retail Trade Food and Beverage Stores Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores General Merchandise Stores Information Financial Activities Finance and Insurance Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Hospitals Leisure and Hospitality Accommodation and Food Services Jul-09 247.6 197.4 50.2 6.6 9.3 34.3 19.7 30.3 217.3 167.1 50.2 18.7 54.2 9.3 8.0 35.7 7.2 4.9 5.7 4.6 9.2 6.1 21.1 10.1 37.4 8.8 20.8 16.8 Source: NY State Department of Labor-Current Employment Survey Complied by Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 2009:02 251.4 198.2 53.2 6.5 9.4 37.3 23.8 30.4 221.0 167.8 53.2 21.1 54.4 9.3 8.5 35.5 7.1 4.9 5.7 4.5 9.1 6.1 21.1 12.0 37.5 8.7 19.6 16.0 2009:01 248.9 195.7 53.2 6.5 9.5 37.2 23.8 30.0 218.9 165.7 53.2 21.1 54.5 9.2 8.5 35.7 7.1 5.0 5.8 4.5 9.4 6.2 20.9 11.9 37.1 8.7 18.1 15.0 2008:04 258.1 205.0 53.1 6.5 9.6 37.0 24.0 32.4 225.7 172.5 53.1 21.7 57.8 9.6 9.0 38.0 7.2 4.9 5.9 4.7 9.4 6.4 21.6 12.4 37.3 8.8 19.5 15.9 2008:03 254.4 203.7 50.7 6.6 9.8 34.4 20.4 35.0 221.2 170.5 50.7 22.0 56.0 9.7 8.8 36.3 7.3 5.3 5.8 4.7 9.6 6.4 21.7 10.1 36.1 8.9 21.7 17.1 2009:02 256.6 203.4 53.2 6.5 9.8 36.9 23.8 34.3 223.6 170.4 53.2 22.0 56.1 9.8 9.0 36.1 7.3 5.0 5.7 4.6 9.5 6.4 21.6 11.4 36.8 8.9 20.5 16.5 Dec-07 260.1 207.7 52.4 6.4 9.6 36.4 23.3 33.9 226.2 173.8 52.4 21.6 59.1 10.1 10.6 39.0 7.3 5.7 6.6 4.6 9.8 6.7 21.2 11.6 36.7 8.9 19.5 16.0 Percent change Percent change 7-09 and peak of 7-09 and near last Business term low Cycle -0.52% 0.85% 0.00% 3.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.90% 0.00% 0.84% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.09% 0.00% 0.56% 0.98% 0.62% 0.00% 2.22% 1.10% 0.00% 0.81% 0.00% 3.66% 1.15% 6.67% 12.00% -4.81% -4.96% -4.20% 3.12% -3.12% -5.77% -15.45% -10.62% -3.93% -3.86% -4.20% -13.43% -8.24% -7.92% -24.53% -8.46% -1.37% -14.04% -13.64% 0.00% -6.12% -8.96% -0.47% -12.93% 1.91% -1.12% 6.67% 5.00% 9/29/2009 16 Rockland, Westchester, and Putnam Counties: Employment Data by Industry: CES Data Quarterly Data are Averages of Monthly Data (,000) Total Nonfarm Total Private Total Government Federal Government State Government Local Government Local Government Education Goods Producing Service-Providing Private Service-Providing Public Service-Providing Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Transportation and Warehousing Retail Trade Food and Beverage Stores Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores General Merchandise Stores Information Financial Activities Finance and Insurance Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Hospitals Leisure and Hospitality Accommodation and Food Services Source: NY State Department of Labor-Current Employment Survey Complied by Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College Jul-09 579.3 479.2 100.1 5.5 14.5 80.1 36.9 66.9 512.4 412.3 100.1 29.3 104.3 23.6 16.2 64.5 14.6 7.5 8.8 15.1 35.8 23.6 71.5 22.2 90.8 19.5 47.5 33.6 2009:02 575.4 477.0 98.4 5.6 14.4 78.4 45.4 66.1 509.3 410.9 98.4 29.6 105.2 23.7 17.5 64.0 14.5 7.5 8.9 15.1 35.7 23.7 71.3 24.8 90.7 19.3 43.3 32.2 2009:01 564.9 468.1 96.8 5.5 14.2 77.1 44.8 64.3 500.6 403.8 96.8 29.8 105.4 23.5 17.5 64.3 14.6 7.9 9.0 15.1 35.4 23.7 69.0 25.1 89.7 19.3 39.6 30.7 17 2008:04 587.0 489.4 97.6 5.5 14.3 77.8 45.3 69.4 517.6 420.0 97.6 30.7 111.4 24.2 18.2 69.0 15.0 9.1 10.3 15.6 36.1 24.0 73.3 25.7 90.4 19.5 42.7 32.2 2008:03 575.8 486.7 97.0 5.5 14.5 77.0 40.1 69.9 513.8 416.8 97.0 30.8 107.5 24.3 17.1 66.1 14.8 8.7 9.7 15.8 36.6 24.3 74.6 21.9 89.0 19.4 46.9 32.3 2008:02 575.9 486.9 98.7 5.6 14.5 78.6 45.5 68.9 516.7 418.0 98.7 30.9 109.4 24.5 18.5 66.4 14.9 8.7 9.7 15.9 36.5 24.6 73.9 23.8 89.2 19.1 44.6 32.4 Dec-07 593.2 495.7 97.5 5.5 14.2 77.8 45.5 71.0 522.2 424.7 97.5 31.7 116.4 24.8 18.9 72.7 15.0 10.5 11.7 16.2 36.9 24.8 73.8 24.9 88.8 18.9 42.7 32.5 Percent change Percent change 7-09 and peak of 7-09 and near last Business term low Cycle 2.54% 2.37% 3.41% 0.00% 2.11% 3.89% -17.63% 4.04% 2.35% 2.11% 3.37% -1.79% -1.01% 0.43% -7.43% 0.31% 0.00% -5.06% -2.22% 0.00% 1.13% -0.42% 3.62% -11.55% 1.23% 1.04% 19.95% 9.45% -2.34% -3.33% 2.67% 0.00% 2.11% 2.96% -18.90% -5.77% -1.88% -2.92% 2.67% -7.57% -10.40% -4.84% -14.29% -11.28% -2.67% -28.57% -24.79% -6.79% -2.98% -4.84% -3.12% -10.84% 2.25% 3.17% 11.24% 3.38% 9/29/2009 Ulster County: Employment Data by Industry: CES Data Quarterly Data are Averages of Monthly Data Total Nonfarm Total Private Total Government Federal Government State Government Local Government Local Government Education Goods Producing Service-Providing Private Service-Providing Public Service-Providing Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Transportation and Warehousing Retail Trade Natural Resources, Mining and Construc Information Financial Activities Finance and Insurance Professional and Business Services Educational Health Services Health Care and Social Assistance Hospitals Leisure and Hospitality Jul-09 62.1 46.9 15.2 0.4 4.7 10.1 4.8 6.5 55.6 40.4 15.2 3.7 11.8 1.3 1.4 9.1 2.8 1.0 2.5 2009:02 62.8 46.6 16.3 0.5 4.9 10.9 6.6 6.4 56.5 40.2 16.3 3.7 12.0 1.3 1.7 9.0 2.7 1.0 2.5 2009:01 61.3 45.3 15.8 0.5 4.8 10.5 6.3 6.3 54.8 39.0 15.8 3.8 11.9 1.3 1.7 8.9 2.5 1.0 2.5 2008:04 63.4 47.6 15.9 0.5 4.6 10.7 6.3 6.7 56.7 40.8 15.9 3.9 12.8 1.4 1.8 9.6 2.8 1.0 2.6 2008:03 62.5 47.8 14.6 0.5 4.6 9.5 5.0 6.9 55.6 40.9 14.7 4.0 12.3 1.4 1.6 9.3 2.9 1.0 2.7 2008:02 64.0 48.1 15.9 0.5 4.9 10.5 6.3 6.9 57.1 41.3 15.8 4.1 12.6 1.4 1.8 9.3 2.8 1.0 2.6 Dec-07 64.3 48.5 15.8 0.5 4.8 10.5 6.3 7.1 57.2 41.4 15.8 4.2 13.4 1.4 1.9 10.1 2.9 1.1 2.7 4.4 10.5 4.6 10.6 4.1 10.5 4.1 10.6 4.2 10.4 4.7 10.4 7.5 7.1 6.5 7.1 7.6 7.3 Source: NY State Department of Labor-Current Employment Survey Complied by Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 18 Percent change 7Percent change 7- 09 and peak of 09 and near term last Business low Cycle 1.31% 3.53% -3.80% -20.00% -2.08% -3.81% -23.81% 3.17% 1.46% 3.59% -3.80% -2.63% -0.84% 0.00% -17.65% 2.25% 12.00% 0.00% 0.00% -3.42% -3.30% -3.80% -20.00% -2.08% -3.81% -23.81% -8.45% -2.80% -2.42% -3.80% -11.90% -11.94% -7.14% -26.32% -9.90% -3.45% -9.09% -7.41% 4.4 10.3 7.32% 0.00% 0.00% 1.94% 6.8 15.38% 10.29% 9/29/2009 Columbia County: Employment Data by Industry: CES Data Quarterly Data are Averages of Monthly Data (,000) Total Nonfarm Total Private Total Government Federal Government State Government Local Government Local Government Education Goods Producing Service-Providing Private Service-Providing Public Service-Providing Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Transportation and Warehousing Retail Trade Natural Resources, Mining and Construction Information Financial Activities Finance and Insurance Professional and Business Services Educational Health Services Health Care and Social Assistance Hospitals Leisure and Hospitality Accommodation and Food Services Jul-09 21.3 16.3 5.0 2009:02 2009:01 2008:04 2008:03 2008:02 20.9 15.8 5.0 20.1 15.1 4.9 21.2 16.1 5.0 21.6 16.7 5.0 21.5 16.3 5.1 Dec-07 21.6 16.2 5.3 2.6 18.7 13.7 5.0 1.5 3.7 2.5 18.3 13.3 5.0 1.5 3.8 2.5 17.6 12.7 4.9 1.6 3.7 2.8 18.4 13.4 5.0 1.7 3.8 2.9 18.8 13.8 5.0 1.7 3.8 2.9 18.6 13.5 5.1 1.7 3.8 1.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.5 1.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 0.3 0.6 1.5 4.4 1.5 4.5 1.4 4.4 1.6 4.5 2.2 1.7 1.3 1.6 Source: NY State Department of Labor-Current Employment Survey Complied by Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 19 Percent change 7Percent change 7- 09 and peak of 09 and near term last Business low Cycle 5.97% 7.95% 2.04% -1.39% 0.62% -5.66% 2.9 18.7 13.4 5.3 1.8 3.9 4.00% 6.25% 7.87% 2.04% -6.25% 0.00% -10.34% 0.00% 2.24% -5.66% -16.67% -5.13% 1.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.6 22.22% 0.00% 20.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 1.6 4.4 1.6 4.5 1.7 4.3 7.14% 0.00% -11.76% 2.33% 2.1 1.7 1.6 69.23% 37.50% 9/29/2009 Greene County: Employment Data by Industry: CES Data Quarterly Data are Averages of Monthly Data Total Nonfarm Total Private Total Government Federal Government State Government Local Government Local Government Education Goods Producing Service-Providing Private Service-Providing Public Service-Providing Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Transportation and Warehousing Retail Trade Natural Resources, Mining and Construction Information Financial Activities Finance and Insurance Professional and Business Services Educational Health Services Health Care and Social Assistance Hospitals Leisure and Hospitality Jul-09 15.1 10.2 4.9 2009:02 2009:01 2008:04 2008:03 2008:02 Percent change 7-09 and near term low Percent change 7-09 and peak of last Business Cycle 1.34% 0.00% 4.26% -1.95% -4.67% 2.08% 14.4 9.7 4.7 14.9 10.2 4.7 14.8 10.1 4.7 15.4 10.7 4.7 14.9 10.2 4.7 Dec-07 15.4 10.7 4.8 1.8 13.3 8.4 4.9 1.0 3.1 1.6 12.8 8.0 4.8 1.0 3.1 1.5 13.4 8.7 4.7 1.0 3.1 1.9 12.9 8.2 4.7 1.0 3.1 2.0 13.4 8.7 4.7 1.1 3.2 1.9 13.0 8.3 4.7 1.1 3.2 1.9 13.6 8.8 4.8 1.0 3.3 20.00% -0.75% -3.45% 4.26% 0.00% 0.00% -5.26% -2.21% -4.55% 2.08% 0.00% -6.06% 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.4 60.00% 0.00% 0.00% -11.11% 0.00% 0.00% 0.5 1.2 0.5 1.3 0.5 1.3 0.6 1.3 0.6 1.3 0.6 1.3 0.6 1.4 0.00% -7.69% -16.67% -14.29% 2.6 2.1 2.8 2.2 2.6 2.1 2.5 -7.14% 4.00% Source: NY State Department of Labor-Current Employment Survey Complied by Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 20 9/29/2009 Sullivan County: Employment Data by Industry: CES Data Quarterly Data are Averages of Monthly Data Total Nonfarm Total Private Total Government Federal Government State Government Local Government Local Government Education Goods Producing Service-Providing Private Service-Providing Public Service-Providing Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Transportation and Warehousing Retail Trade Natural Resources, Mining and Construction Information Financial Activities Finance and Insurance Professional and Business Services Educational Health Services Health Care and Social Assistance Hospitals Leisure and Hospitality Accommodation and Food Services Jul-09 28.1 21.6 6.5 2009:02 2009:01 2008:04 2008:03 2008:02 26.4 19.6 6.8 25.1 18.5 6.6 26.7 20.0 6.7 28.1 21.6 6.6 26.9 20.1 6.8 Dec-07 26.4 19.7 6.7 2.9 25.2 18.7 6.5 1.4 4.4 2.7 23.7 16.9 6.8 1.4 4.3 2.4 22.7 16.1 6.6 1.3 4.2 2.7 24.1 17.3 6.8 1.3 4.5 2.8 25.4 18.8 6.6 1.3 4.6 2.7 24.2 17.4 6.8 1.3 4.4 1.5 0.3 1.3 1.3 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.2 1.3 1.4 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.3 1.4 1.4 5.7 1.4 5.7 1.4 5.6 1.5 5.8 4.3 2.8 2.2 2.7 Source: NY State Department of Labor-Current Employment Survey Complied by Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 21 Percent change 7Percent change 7- 09 and peak of 09 and near term last Business low Cycle 11.95% 16.76% -1.52% 6.44% 9.64% -2.99% 2.8 23.6 16.9 6.7 1.4 4.5 20.83% 11.01% 16.15% -1.52% 7.69% 4.76% 3.57% 6.78% 10.65% -2.99% 0.00% -2.22% 1.4 0.2 1.4 1.4 0.2 1.4 36.36% 50.00% 0.00% 7.14% 50.00% -7.14% 1.5 5.7 1.5 5.7 1.5 5.7 0.00% 1.79% -6.67% 0.00% 3.9 2.8 2.4 95.45% 79.17% 9/29/2009 Total U.S. NonFarm Employees (Seasonally Adjusted in Thousands) Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 134,333 133,652 133,000 132,481 132,178 131,715 131,439 131,223 Average % Change 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 138,080 137,936 137,814 137,654 137,517 137,356 137,228 137,053 136,732 136,352 135,755 135,074 137,180 137,216 137,400 137,435 137,591 137,645 137,580 137,552 137,652 137,817 138,032 138,152 135,155 135,429 135,711 135,862 135,886 135,956 136,142 136,291 136,438 136,520 136,781 137,000 132,499 132,720 132,841 133,153 133,365 133,624 133,946 134,136 134,223 134,321 134,701 134,861 130,420 130,463 130,801 131,051 131,361 131,442 131,489 131,610 131,770 132,121 132,185 132,317 137,046 -0.41% 137,604 1.11% 136,098 1.79% 133,699 1.73% 131,419 1.09% 2005 2004 Monthly Changes in LABSTAT Series Report (in Thousands) Period Jan-Feb Feb-Mar Mar-Apr Apr-May May-Jun Jun-Jul Jul-Aug Aug-Sep Sep-Oct Oct-Nov Nov-Dec Dec-Jan Total Average 2009 2008 (681) (652) (519) (303) (463) (276) (216) 2007 (144) (122) (160) (137) (161) (128) (175) (321) (380) (597) (681) (741) 36 184 35 156 54 (65) (28) 100 165 215 120 (150) (3,747) (312) 822 69 2006 274 282 151 24 70 186 149 147 82 261 219 180 221 121 312 212 259 322 190 87 98 380 160 294 43 338 250 310 81 47 121 160 351 64 132 182 2,025 169 2,656 221 2,079 173 *All numbers have been adjusted for recent changes Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Compiled by Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College. 9/29/2009 22 Average Weekly Earnings of Manufacturing Workers $775.00 $725.00 Dollars $675.00 $625.00 ` $575.00 $525.00 $475.00 $425.00 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 NYC NYS 2007 2008 2009 USA Length of Average Work Week for Manufacturing Workers 43 42 41 Hours 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 NYC NYS Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Compiled by the Marist College Bureau of Economic Research, School of Management, Marist College 23 2007 2008 2009 USA 9/29/2009 Wage and hours data for Manufacturing workers (NAICS 30) Average Weekly Hours New York City** January February March April May June July August September October November December 2009 39.0 38.2 38.5 38.6 39.3 38.7 38.8 38.2 2008 37.3 38.5 38.4 38.4 37.4 37.6 37.6 37.1 37.0 38.4 38.4 39.8 2007 38.4 37.9 37.3 39.0 40.6 40.7 40.4 39.4 40.0 39.9 40.4 42.3 2006 35.2 36.2 36.0 35.1 37.2 38.3 35.8 37.2 37.8 37.7 39.2 36.8 2005 37.7 37.7 38.0 38.7 38.4 37.3 35.8 38.9 34.9 35.1 35.4 36.5 2004 35.7 35.6 36.4 34.6 36.4 36.0 34.6 36.2 35.7 37.6 38.1 37.6 2003 38.4 37.4 37.0 36.3 36.9 36.8 36.0 34.6 36.4 36.3 36.3 36.0 2002 36.6 36.8 37.3 36.8 36.7 37.6 38.0 37.8 37.6 36.5 37.3 38.7 New York State** January February March April May June July August September October November December 2009 37.8 38.4 38.4 37.9 38.7 39.6 38.8 39.2 2008 40.0 40.0 40.2 40.4 39.5 39.4 39.1 39.6 39.3 39.2 39.2 38.6 2007 41.1 39.7 40.3 41.1 41.1 41.3 40.3 41.1 41.3 40.3 41.2 41.3 2006 40.7 41.3 41.7 40.0 41.2 41.5 40.3 41.0 41.5 40.8 41.1 41.8 2005 39.3 39.4 39.2 39.6 39.4 39.1 38.5 39.2 39.9 40.5 40.2 40.4 2004 39.6 39.6 39.7 39.1 39.9 39.6 38.9 39.7 39.5 39.7 40.2 40.5 2003 40.3 40.3 40.3 39.9 40.1 40.0 39.0 38.9 40.2 40.1 40.2 40.4 2002 39.8 40.3 40.6 40.2 40.5 40.3 39.6 40.0 40.6 40.4 40.6 41.1 United States* January February March April May June July August September October November December 2009 39.8 39.5 39.4 39.6 39.4 39.5 39.8 39.8 2008 41.1 41.1 41.2 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 40.9 40.5 40.4 40.3 39.9 2007 40.9 40.9 41.2 41.1 41.1 41.4 41.3 41.4 41.4 2006 40.9 41.0 41.1 41.2 41.1 41.3 41.5 41.3 41.1 41.2 41.0 41.0 2005 40.7 40.6 40.4 40.5 40.4 40.4 40.5 40.6 40.7 41.0 40.8 40.8 2004 41.0 41.0 40.9 40.8 40.4 40.7 40.8 40.9 40.8 40.7 40.5 40.5 2003 40.3 40.4 40.4 40.1 40.2 40.3 40.1 40.2 40.8 40.7 41.2 41.3 2002 40.2 40.3 40.6 40.5 40.6 40.7 40.4 40.5 40.5 40.3 40.4 40.5 41.2 41.3 41.1 Seasonly Adjusted* Not Seasonly Adjusted** Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Compiled by Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 24 9/29/2009 Wage and hours data for Manufacturing workers (NAICS 30) Average Hourly Earnings New York City January February March April May June July August September October November December 2009 $16.38 $16.54 $16.90 $16.89 $17.08 $18.44 $16.10 $16.47 2008 $15.90 $15.97 $15.94 $15.91 $15.84 $16.15 $16.26 $16.00 $16.33 $16.03 $16.04 $16.38 2007 $15.89 $15.90 $15.74 $15.42 $14.60 $15.00 $14.58 $14.59 $14.93 $14.70 $14.53 $14.65 2006 $15.04 $14.92 $15.58 $15.41 $14.94 $15.00 $15.30 $15.49 $14.92 $15.53 $15.43 $16.55 2005 $15.15 $15.10 $14.93 $15.36 $15.89 $15.92 $15.30 $14.91 $15.25 $15.03 $15.89 $15.33 2004 $13.99 $13.96 $13.93 $14.04 $13.92 $14.51 $14.78 $14.25 $14.27 $14.04 $14.63 $15.06 2003 $13.53 $12.94 $13.68 $13.83 $13.66 $13.66 $14.35 $14.21 $14.37 $13.48 $13.97 $14.08 2002 $13.00 $12.74 $12.92 $13.43 $13.32 $12.74 $12.73 $13.00 $12.97 $13.40 $13.31 $13.26 New York State January February March April May June July August September October November December 2009 $18.09 $18.33 $18.24 $18.51 $18.44 $18.45 $18.65 $18.14 2008 $18.10 $18.22 $18.35 $18.49 $18.49 $18.63 $18.68 $18.74 $18.91 $18.93 $18.70 $18.88 2007 $18.33 $18.43 $18.59 $18.68 $18.48 $18.75 $18.57 $18.78 $18.64 $18.24 $18.18 $18.17 2006 $17.74 $18.02 $18.16 $18.40 $18.40 $18.48 $18.32 $18.47 $18.25 $18.37 $18.42 $18.49 2005 $17.76 $17.74 $17.56 $17.77 $17.72 $17.83 $17.55 $17.86 $17.89 $17.62 $17.95 $17.93 2004 $17.17 $17.00 $16.92 $17.20 $17.26 $17.24 $17.14 $17.32 $17.67 $17.33 $17.45 $17.74 2003 $16.79 $16.70 $16.74 $16.69 $16.70 $16.60 $16.56 $16.88 $16.89 $16.71 $16.91 $17.20 2002 $16.65 $16.81 $16.84 $17.00 $16.71 $16.62 $16.39 $16.64 $16.77 $16.68 $17.00 $16.85 United States January February March April May June July August September October November December 2009 $17.99 $18.07 $18.10 $18.11 $18.11 $18.13 $18.28 $18.26 2008 $17.49 $17.55 $17.61 $17.62 $17.65 $17.71 $17.78 $17.76 $17.79 $17.86 $17.94 $17.92 2007 $17.02 $17.06 $17.11 $17.20 $17.23 $17.28 $17.30 $17.33 $17.34 $17.34 $17.40 $17.41 2006 $16.71 $16.72 $16.74 $16.78 $16.79 $16.80 $16.80 $16.85 $16.83 $16.88 $16.89 $16.95 2005 $16.38 $16.42 $16.43 $16.48 $16.54 $16.56 $16.58 $16.65 $16.60 $16.71 $16.68 $16.70 2004 $15.94 $15.98 $16.01 $16.07 $16.08 $16.12 $16.16 $16.22 $16.29 $16.27 $16.29 $16.34 2003 $15.58 $15.62 $15.62 $15.63 $15.64 $15.69 $15.69 $15.76 $15.88 $15.81 $15.92 $16.05 2002 $15.05 $15.12 $15.15 $15.17 $15.23 $15.27 $15.27 $15.34 $15.38 $15.45 $15.48 $15.55 Seasonly Adjusted* Not Seasonly Adjusted** Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Compiled by Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 25 9/29/2009 Wage and hours data for Manufacturing workers (NAICS 30) Average Weekly Earnings New York City January February March April May June July August September October November December 2009 $638.82 $631.83 $650.65 $651.95 $671.24 $713.63 $624.68 $629.15 2008 $593.07 $614.85 $612.10 $610.94 $592.42 $607.24 $611.38 $593.60 $604.21 $615.55 $615.94 $651.92 2007 $610.18 $602.61 $587.10 $601.38 $592.76 $610.50 $589.03 $574.85 $597.20 $586.53 $584.01 $619.70 2006 $529.41 $540.10 $560.88 $540.89 $555.77 $574.50 $547.74 $554.54 $555.02 $587.03 $581.71 $648.76 2005 $571.16 $569.27 $567.34 $594.43 $610.18 $593.82 $547.76 $580.00 $532.23 $527.55 $562.51 $561.08 2004 $499.44 $496.98 $507.05 $485.78 $506.69 $522.36 $511.39 $515.85 $509.44 $527.90 $557.40 $566.26 2003 $519.55 $483.96 $506.16 $502.03 $504.05 $502.69 $516.60 $491.67 $523.07 $489.32 $507.11 $506.88 2002 $475.80 $468.83 $481.92 $494.22 $488.84 $479.02 $483.74 $491.40 $487.67 $489.10 $496.46 $513.16 New York State January February March April May June July August September October November December 2009 $683.80 $703.87 $700.42 $701.53 $713.63 $730.62 $723.62 $711.09 2008 $724.00 $728.80 $737.67 $743.30 $730.36 $734.02 $730.39 $742.10 $743.16 $738.27 $733.04 $728.77 2007 $753.36 $731.67 $749.18 $767.75 $759.53 $774.38 $748.37 $771.86 $769.83 $735.07 $749.02 $750.42 2006 $722.02 $744.23 $757.27 $735.60 $758.08 $764.85 $738.30 $757.27 $757.38 $749.50 $756.65 $772.46 2005 $697.97 $698.96 $688.35 $703.69 $698.17 $697.15 $675.68 $700.11 $713.81 $713.61 $721.59 $724.37 2004 $679.93 $673.20 $671.72 $672.52 $688.67 $682.70 $667.75 $687.60 $697.97 $688.00 $701.49 $718.47 2003 $676.64 $673.01 $674.62 $665.93 $669.67 $664.00 $645.84 $656.63 $678.98 $670.07 $679.78 $694.88 2002 $662.67 $677.44 $683.70 $683.40 $676.76 $669.79 $649.04 $665.60 $680.86 $673.87 $690.20 $692.54 United States January February March April May June July August September October November December 2009 $716.00 $713.77 $713.14 $717.16 $713.53 $716.14 $727.54 $726.75 2008 $718.84 $721.31 $725.53 $722.42 $723.65 $726.11 $728.98 $726.38 $720.50 $721.54 $722.98 $715.01 2007 $696.12 $697.75 $704.93 $706.92 $708.15 $715.39 $716.22 $715.73 $717.88 $714.41 $718.62 $715.55 2006 $682.62 $684.29 $686.78 $691.10 $689.25 $691.34 $696.37 $695.08 $691.71 $695.46 $692.49 $694.95 2005 $666.67 $666.65 $663.77 $667.44 $668.22 $669.02 $671.49 $675.99 $675.62 $685.11 $680.54 $681.36 2004 $653.54 $655.18 $654.81 $655.66 $659.28 $656.08 $659.33 $663.40 $664.63 $662.19 $659.75 $661.77 2003 $627.87 $626.36 $629.49 $623.64 $628.73 $635.45 $621.32 $633.55 $647.90 $643.47 $655.90 $662.87 2002 $605.01 $609.34 $615.09 $614.39 $618.34 $621.49 $616.91 $621.27 $622.89 $622.64 $625.39 $629.78 Seasonly Adjusted* Not Seasonly Adjusted** Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Compiled by Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 26 9/29/2009 Total Temporary Assistance- Recipients Monthly Average per Quarter Counties 2009:02 2009:01 2008:04 2008:03 2008:02 Dec 2007 Columbia 805 725 666 682 681 616 Dutchess 2,499 2,408 2,276 2,257 2,162 2,212 Greene 891 889 815 792 802 792 Orange 5,665 5,221 4,966 4,960 4,880 4,684 Putnam 112 102 104 127 135 124 Rockland 2,523 2,443 2,343 2,373 2,376 2,315 Sullivan 1,839 1,691 1,599 1,422 1,514 1,303 Ulster 2,640 2,509 2,333 2,236 2,249 2,370 Westchester 13,386 13,019 13,026 13,071 12,736 12,890 Hudson Valley 30,360 29,007 28,128 27,920 27,536 27,306 New York City 342,031 340,007 338,058 334,771 342,776 348,414 New York State 522,713 516,398 509,801 503,614 512,268 516,298 Percentage Change:Monthy Average per Quarter Counties 2009:02 2009:01 2008:04 2008:03 2008:02 Dec 2007 to 2009:02 Columbia 11.1% 8.8% -2.3% 0.1% -2.0% 30.74% Dutchess 3.8% 5.8% 0.9% 4.4% 3.1% 12.99% Greene 0.2% 9.1% 2.9% -1.2% 4.0% 12.50% Orange 8.5% 5.1% 0.1% 1.6% 2.9% 20.94% Putnam 10.2% -1.9% -18.6% -5.9% 2.5% -9.68% Rockland 3.2% 4.3% -1.3% -0.1% -1.1% 8.97% Sullivan 8.7% 5.8% 12.5% -6.1% -0.4% 41.14% Ulster 5.2% 7.5% 4.4% -0.6% -3.8% 11.41% Westchester 2.8% -0.1% -0.3% 2.6% -0.3% 3.85% Hudson Valley 4.7% 3.1% 0.7% 1.4% 0.2% 11.19% New York City 0.6% 0.6% 1.0% -2.3% -0.6% -1.83% New York State 1.2% 1.3% 1.2% -1.7% -0.5% 1.24% Source: New York State Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance Compiled by: Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 27 9/29/2009 Total Temporary Assistance- Expenditures Monthly Average per Quarter Counties 2009:02 2009:01 2008:04 2008:03 2008:02 Dec 2007 Columbia $355,504 $250,603 $231,427 $229,616 $238,835 $147,507 Dutchess $1,105,929 $1,035,853 $852,172 $1,062,894 $954,017 $932,340 Greene $272,868 $248,708 $235,962 $214,200 $230,606 $219,399 Orange $2,305,102 $1,957,117 $1,826,474 $2,010,841 $2,167,715 $1,759,145 Putnam $60,066 $53,563 $54,596 $71,686 $65,368 $54,391 Rockland $796,770 $774,647 $762,706 $735,318 $749,598 $912,368 Sullivan $679,113 $593,096 $548,764 $528,427 $559,569 $571,176 Ulster $1,024,602 $965,802 $854,775 $872,003 $878,252 $1,002,493 Westchester $7,002,876 $6,410,749 $6,495,212 $7,552,282 $6,814,096 $7,143,591 Hudson Valley $13,602,830 $12,290,137 $11,862,088 $13,271,740 $12,663,763 $12,742,410 New York City $106,314,878 $106,154,667 $106,540,333 $107,230,333 $114,342,667 $101,812,000 New York State $163,065,049 $160,656,245 $158,852,065 $159,979,700 $168,356,596 $160,080,182 Percentage Change:Monthy Average per Quarter Counties 2009:02 2009:01 2008:04 2008:03 2008:02 Dec 2007 to 2009:02 Columbia 41.9% 8.3% 0.8% -3.9% -9.9% 141.01% Dutchess 6.8% 21.6% -19.8% 11.4% 1.0% 18.62% Greene 9.7% 5.4% 10.2% -7.1% 11.8% 24.37% Orange 17.8% 7.2% -9.2% -7.2% 24.1% 31.04% Putnam 12.1% -1.9% -23.8% 9.7% 8.3% 10.43% 2.9% 1.6% 3.7% -1.9% -2.8% -12.67% 14.5% 8.1% 3.8% -5.6% -8.6% 18.90% Ulster 6.1% 13.0% -2.0% -0.7% -2.5% 2.21% Westchester 9.2% -1.3% -14.0% 10.8% -3.4% -1.97% Hudson Valley 10.7% 3.6% -10.6% 4.8% 0.7% 6.75% New York City 0.2% -0.4% -0.6% -6.2% 11.3% 4.42% New York State 1.5% 1.1% -0.7% -5.0% 5.1% 1.86% Rockland Sullivan Source: New York State Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance Compiled by: Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 28 9/29/2009 Food Stamps - Recipients Monthly Average per Quarter Counties 2009:02 2009:01 2008:04 2008:03 2008:02 Dec 2007 Columbia 4,053 3,734 3,392 3,209 3,211 2,970 Dutchess 15,822 14,617 13,528 12,720 12,212 11,382 Greene 4,529 4,246 3,892 3,657 3,560 3,400 Orange 30,029 28,477 26,871 25,731 24,833 23,502 Putnam 1,394 1,200 1,091 1,052 1,027 982 27,689 26,228 24,914 24,119 23,397 22,324 8,541 8,060 7,495 7,125 7,071 6,762 Ulster 13,977 12,833 11,667 10,821 10,516 9,862 Westchester 52,322 49,228 46,735 45,066 43,466 41,717 158,355 148,622 139,584 133,500 129,292 122,901 New York City 1,473,358 1,391,018 1,332,464 1,278,266 1,228,069 1,129,368 New York State 2,383,662 2,251,234 2,141,884 2,053,351 1,986,287 1,849,851 Rockland Sullivan Hudson Valley Total Percentage Change:Monthy Average per Quarter Counties 2009:02 2009:01 2008:04 2008:03 2008:02 Dec 2007 to 2009:02 Columbia 8.55% 10.07% 5.71% -0.07% 4.30% 36.46% Dutchess 8.24% 8.05% 6.35% 4.16% 3.96% 39.01% Greene 6.68% 9.09% 6.43% 2.72% 1.41% 33.22% Orange 5.45% 5.98% 4.43% 3.62% 3.64% 27.77% Putnam 16.17% 9.99% 3.68% 2.40% 1.05% 41.92% Rockland 5.57% 5.28% 3.29% 3.09% 3.35% 24.03% Sullivan 5.97% 7.54% 5.19% 0.77% 2.12% 26.31% Ulster 8.91% 9.99% 7.82% 2.90% 3.45% 41.73% Westchester 6.29% 5.33% 3.70% 3.68% 2.66% 25.42% Hudson Valley Total 6.55% 6.47% 4.56% 3.25% 3.12% 28.85% New York City 5.92% 4.39% 4.24% 4.09% 2.32% 30.46% New York State 5.88% 5.11% 4.31% 3.38% 2.55% 28.86% Data: New York State Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance Compiled by: Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 29 9/29/2009 Food Stamps - Expenditures Monthly Average per Quarter Counties 2009:02 2009:01 2008:04 2008:03 2008:02 Dec 2007 Columbia $592,379 $458,626 $402,824 $315,594 $313,808 $294,006 Dutchess $2,332,674 $1,824,290 $1,653,254 $1,305,677 $1,262,671 $1,187,670 Greene $642,846 $515,742 $456,543 $362,400 $350,448 $340,713 Orange $4,409,160 $3,636,373 $3,297,824 $2,692,236 $2,622,313 $2,508,410 Putnam $200,668 $146,385 $126,957 $87,963 $89,041 $82,545 Rockland $3,981,932 $3,231,269 $2,995,298 $2,464,282 $2,390,172 $2,299,166 Sullivan $1,220,088 $984,373 $902,241 $658,438 $651,910 $642,660 Ulster $2,006,079 $1,568,365 $1,413,625 $1,085,588 $1,039,639 $1,003,238 Westchester $7,729,591 $6,220,940 $5,792,617 $4,795,002 $4,590,614 $4,452,015 $23,115,417 $18,586,363 $17,041,183 $13,767,181 $13,310,617 $12,810,423 New York City $236,010,130 $191,086,940 $183,774,735 $146,713,495 $142,328,074 $137,456,394 New York State $366,093,812 $295,519,287 $279,354,584 $224,341,487 $218,448,308 $210,768,403 Hudson Valley Total Percentage Change:Monthy Average per Quarter Counties 2009:02 2009:01 2008:04 2008:03 2008:02 Dec 2007 to 2009:02 Columbia 29.16% 13.85% 27.64% 0.57% 3.37% -32.84% Dutchess 27.87% 10.35% 26.62% 3.41% 3.38% -34.53% Greene 24.64% 12.97% 25.98% 3.41% 0.65% -37.11% Orange 21.25% 10.27% 22.49% 2.67% 4.16% -41.41% Putnam 37.08% 15.30% 44.33% -1.21% 3.93% -18.97% Rockland 23.23% 7.88% 21.55% 3.10% 2.90% -42.27% Sullivan 23.95% 9.10% 37.03% 1.00% -0.84% -36.72% Ulster 27.91% 10.95% 30.22% 4.42% 3.51% -33.35% Westchester 24.25% 7.39% 20.81% 4.45% 2.66% -42.13% Hudson Valley Total 24.37% 9.07% 23.78% 3.43% 2.92% -39.85% New York City 23.51% 3.98% 25.26% 3.08% 3.42% -42.77% New York State 23.88% 5.79% 24.52% 2.70% 3.16% -42.10% Data: New York State Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance Compiled by: Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 30 9/29/2009 Supplemental Social Security Income- Recipients Monthly Average per Quarter Counties 2009:02 2009:01 2008:04 2008:03 2008:02 Dec 2007 Columbia 1,545 1,541 1,514 1,502 1,510 1,498 Dutchess 4,845 4,781 4,705 4,688 4,677 4,666 Greene 1,271 1,288 1,262 1,260 1,239 1,232 Orange 6,423 6,401 6,357 6,343 6,245 6,135 Putnam 825 827 834 838 826 803 Rockland 4,750 4,699 4,661 4,626 4,582 4,522 Sullivan 2,485 2,500 2,513 2,530 2,529 2,515 Ulster 4,088 4,077 4,074 4,059 4,026 3,959 Westchester 16,652 16,644 16,590 16,435 16,239 16,160 Hudson Valley 42,883 42,758 42,510 42,280 41,872 41,490 New York City 413,755 412,449 411,101 410,169 409,000 407,295 New York State 665,927 663,229 660,202 657,678 654,460 650,041 Percentage Change:Monthy Average per Quarter Counties 2009:02 2009:01 2008:04 2008:03 2008:02 Dec 2007 to 2009:02 Columbia 0.26% 1.76% 0.82% -0.55% 0.96% 3.12% Dutchess 1.35% 1.62% 0.35% 0.24% -0.20% 3.84% Greene -1.37% 2.11% 0.13% 1.72% 0.51% 3.14% Orange 0.34% 0.69% 0.23% 1.57% 0.86% 4.69% Putnam -0.28% -0.80% -0.56% 1.49% 1.14% 2.70% 1.07% 0.82% 0.76% 0.96% 0.64% 5.03% -0.61% -0.49% -0.67% 0.04% -0.08% -1.19% Ulster 0.29% 0.06% 0.39% 0.82% 0.40% 3.27% Westchester 0.05% 0.32% 0.95% 1.20% 0.64% 3.04% Hudson Valley 0.29% 0.58% 0.54% 0.97% 0.53% 3.36% New York City 0.32% 0.33% 0.23% 0.29% 0.02% 1.59% New York State 0.41% 0.46% 0.38% 0.49% 0.21% 2.44% Rockland Sullivan Data: New York State Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance Compiled by: Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 31 9/29/2009 Supplemental Social Security Income- Expenditures Monthly Average per Quarter Counties 2009:02 2009:01 2008:04 2008:03 2008:02 Dec 2007 Columbia $889,770 $857,496 $776,007 $763,559 $790,566 $783,695 Dutchess $2,676,873 $2,632,549 $2,476,209 $2,479,700 $2,479,252 $1,880,976 Greene $682,891 $699,342 $634,171 $631,857 $627,215 $573,588 Orange $3,420,898 $3,338,624 $3,182,800 $3,198,312 $3,129,023 $3,024,983 Putnam $414,947 $406,629 $389,692 $406,742 $386,231 $401,210 Rockland $2,603,057 $2,557,243 $2,382,143 $2,355,146 $2,366,577 $2,240,373 Sullivan $1,321,088 $1,343,633 $1,257,121 $1,292,645 $1,330,151 $1,275,920 Ulster $2,227,108 $2,162,945 $2,120,434 $2,158,285 $2,124,732 $2,092,125 Westchester $8,829,177 $8,684,946 $8,273,940 $8,230,901 $8,230,808 $8,019,659 Hudson Valley $23,065,809 $22,683,407 $21,492,517 $21,517,146 $21,464,553 $20,292,529 New York City $237,317,888 $235,382,114 $223,266,292 $222,957,377 $224,760,811 $217,967,166 New York State $377,346,515 $372,623,744 $353,612,330 $351,600,165 $353,300,585 $340,236,129 Percentage Change:Monthy Average per Quarter Counties 2009:02 2009:01 2008:04 2008:03 2008:02 Dec 2007 to 2009:02 Columbia 3.76% 10.50% 1.63% -3.42% 4.71% 13.54% Dutchess 1.68% 6.31% -0.14% 0.02% -1.44% 42.31% Greene -2.35% 10.28% 0.37% 0.74% 1.89% 19.06% Orange 2.46% 4.90% -0.48% 2.21% 1.19% 13.09% Putnam 2.05% 4.35% -4.19% 5.31% -5.34% 3.42% Rockland 1.79% 7.35% 1.15% -0.48% 2.34% 16.19% -1.68% 6.88% -2.75% -2.82% 1.36% 3.54% Ulster 2.97% 2.00% -1.75% 1.58% 1.28% 6.45% Westchester 1.66% 4.97% 0.52% 0.00% 1.57% 10.09% Hudson Valley 1.69% 5.54% -0.11% 0.25% 1.19% 13.67% New York City 0.82% 5.43% 0.14% -0.80% 0.53% 8.88% New York State 1.27% 5.38% 0.57% -0.48% 1.11% 10.91% Sullivan Data: New York State Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance Compiled by: Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 32 9/29/2009 Sales: Existing Single Family Homes 2008:02-2009:02 2009 County 2nd Q 2008 1st Q 4th Q % Change 3rd Q 2nd '09 to 1st '09 2nd Q 2nd '09 to 4th '08 2nd '09 to 3rd '08 2nd '09 to 2nd '08 Columbia 74 49 71 121 112 51.02% 4.23% -38.84% -33.93% Dutchess 514 374 492 630 559 37.43% 4.47% -18.41% -8.05% Greene 67 46 55 82 66 45.65% 21.82% -18.29% 1.52% Orange 429 310 434 576 507 38.39% -1.15% -25.52% -15.38% Putnam 130 88 147 199 147 47.73% -11.56% -34.67% -11.56% Rockland 233 189 287 399 279 23.28% -18.82% -41.60% -16.49% 62 46 96 83 71 34.78% -35.42% -25.30% -12.68% Ulster 223 134 242 319 237 66.42% -7.85% -30.09% -5.91% Westchester 705 425 753 1,318 1,002 65.88% -6.37% -46.51% -29.64% 2,437 1,661 2,577 3,727 2,980 46.72% -5.43% -34.61% -18.22% 18,141 11,672 18,518 24,534 20,310 55.42% -2.04% -26.06% -10.68% 4,756,667 4,583,333 4,740,000 5,006,667 3.78% 0.35% -4.99% Sullivan Hudson Valley Total New York State **U.S. N/A NA Sales: Existing Single Family Homes 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Columbia Dutchess Greene Orange 2nd Q 1st Q Putnam 4th Q Rockland 3rd Q Source: NYSAR, (**NAR) Compiled by the Marist College Bureau of Economic Research, School of Management, Marist College 33 Sullivan Ulster Westchester 2nd Q 10/1/2009 Average Annual Selling Price 20008:02 -2009:02 2009 County Columbia % Change 2008 2nd Q 1st Q 4th Q 3rd Q 2nd Q $ 256,885 $ 241,212 $ 313,154 $ 329,444 $ 370,490 2nd '09 to 1st '09 2nd '09 to 4th '08 2nd '09 to 3rd '08 2nd '09 to 2nd '08 6.50% -17.97% -22.02% -30.66% Dutchess $305,166 $332,612 $312,337 $347,660 $354,852 -8.25% -2.30% -12.22% -14.00% Greene $196,017 $195,661 $204,379 $228,988 $212,297 0.18% -4.09% -14.40% -7.67% Orange $335,790 $323,581 $339,250 $352,948 $392,812 3.77% -1.02% -4.86% -14.52% Putnam $346,454 $359,591 $400,731 $430,721 $449,829 -3.65% -13.54% -19.56% -22.98% Rockland $543,747 $531,353 $578,850 $590,015 $609,100 2.33% -6.06% -7.84% -10.73% Sullivan $155,932 $195,190 $163,420 $181,139 $178,083 -20.11% -4.58% -13.92% -12.44% Ulster $240,440 $243,468 $278,201 $290,011 $315,345 -1.24% -13.57% -17.09% -23.75% Westchester $757,892 $695,567 $796,265 $919,416 $896,121 8.96% -4.82% -17.57% -15.43% Hudson Valley $452,353 $430,353 $481,963 $569,206 $561,873 5.11% -6.14% -20.53% -19.49% New York State $274,898 $282,568 $299,168 $326,772 $319,896 -2.71% -8.11% -15.87% -14.07% U.S. $174,433 $167,633 $180,800 $201,567 4.06% -3.52% -13.46% NA N/A Average Quarterly Selling Price $1,000,000 $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $Columbia Dutchess Greene Orange 2nd Q Putnam 1st Q 4th Q Source: NYSAR, (**NAR) Compiled by the Marist College Bureau of Economic Research, School of Management, Marist College 34 Rockland 3rd Q Sullivan Ulster Westchester 2nd Q 10/1/2009 Median Selling Price (in Dollars) 2000-2008 2009 % Change 2008 2nd '09 to 1st '09 2nd '09 to 4th '08 2nd '09 to 3rd '08 2nd '09 to 2nd '08 County 2nd Q 1st Q 4th Q 3rd Q 2nd Q Columbia $227,750 $190,000 $200,000 $225,000 $236,500 19.87% 13.88% 1.22% -3.70% Dutchess $269,950 $280,000 $285,000 $309,900 $318,274 -3.59% -5.28% -12.89% -15.18% Greene $165,000 $156,000 $179,000 $179,950 $179,050 5.77% -7.82% -8.31% -7.85% Orange $270,000 $260,450 $270,000 $285,655 $300,000 3.67% 0.00% -5.48% -10.00% Putnam $324,450 $342,450 $350,000 $375,000 $400,000 -5.26% -7.30% -13.48% -18.89% Rockland $420,000 $407,500 $432,500 $462,500 $455,000 3.07% -2.89% -9.19% -7.69% Sullivan $138,000 $119,000 $146,500 $159,000 $139,000 15.97% -5.80% -13.21% -0.72% Ulster $209,000 $190,560 $220,000 $250,000 $255,000 9.68% -5.00% -16.40% -18.04% Westchester $565,000 $534,000 $569,000 $710,000 $674,950 5.81% -0.70% -20.42% -16.29% Hudson Valley* $269,950 $260,450 $294,667 $328,556 $328,642 3.65% -8.39% -17.84% -17.86% New York State $185,500 $199,000 $210,000 $219,000 $212,250 -6.78% -11.67% -15.30% -12.60% $169,900 $175,700 $191,400 U.S.** $182,000 NA * Estimate ** Medians of Last Month of Quarter Median Selling Prices: Existing Single Family Homes $1,000,000 $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 Dutchess Greene Orange Putnam 2nd Q 1st Q Rockland 4th Q Source: NYSAR, (**NAR) Compiled by the Marist College Bureau of Economic Research, School of Management, Marist College 35 3rd Q Sullivan Ulster Westchester 2nd Q 10/1/2009 Monthly Construction Permits Single Family Homes 2009 Counties July June May April March February Total January Columbia 1 0 1 0 0 0 19 21 Dutchess 7 10 8 10 5 6 6 52 Greene 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Orange 28 28 21 23 21 11 11 143 Putnam 1 5 2 0 3 1 3 15 Rockland 5 8 9 4 5 10 9 50 Sullivan 6 3 13 14 10 2 11 59 Ulster 7 9 11 7 6 4 2 46 23 13 18 18 13 6 16 107 Westchester Hudson Valley 78 76 83 76 63 40 77 493 Monthly Construction Permits Non-single Family Construction (# of buildings) 2009 Counties July June May April March February January Total Columbia Dutchess Greene Orange 1 3 3 1 1 2 1 12 Rockland 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 3 Sullivan 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 5 Ulster 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 Westchester 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 4 Hudson Valley 2 4 3 5 4 5 3 26 Putnam Hudson Valley (All) 80 80 86 81 36 67 45 80 260 Dollar Cost of Construction Single Family Homes 2009 Counties Columbia July June May April March February Total January $46,667 $0 $46,667 $0 $0 $0 $2,340,000 $2,433,334 $1,967,452 $2,469,525 $905,452 $1,709,903 $1,041,500 $1,351,235 $1,086,500 $10,531,567 Greene $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Orange $4,701,098 $4,151,352 $3,087,222 $3,697,169 $4,150,057 $1,999,914 $1,841,499 $23,628,311 Putnam $191,400 $1,004,352 $547,012 $0 $967,980 $337,980 $1,237,980 $4,286,704 Rockland $1,506,286 $2,717,000 $4,860,155 $1,054,000 $1,715,000 $2,003,388 $1,877,886 $15,733,715 Sullivan $1,117,228 $743,000 $1,782,163 $1,713,518 $921,312 $195,828 $1,112,599 $7,585,648 Ulster $1,160,925 $1,785,616 $958,000 $1,035,308 $1,155,184 $505,000 $169,000 $6,769,033 Westchester $10,483,170 $7,297,686 $10,274,083 $8,948,891 $6,628,224 $2,684,714 $7,697,487 $54,014,255 Hudson Valley $21,174,226 $20,168,531 $22,460,754 $18,158,789 $16,579,257 $9,078,059 $17,362,951 $124,982,567 Dutchess Dollar Cost of Construction Non-single Family Construction (# of buildings) 2009 Counties July June May April March February January Total Columbia $0 Dutchess $0 Greene $0 Orange $531,059 $1,178,441 $1,261,955 $955,906 $570,181 $979,838 $255,208 $5,732,588 $240,000 $0 $0 $0 $663,194 $535,200 $0 $1,438,394 Sullivan $0 $0 $0 $86,110 $57,348 $57,348 $130,000 $330,806 Ulster $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $260,000 $0 $260,000 Westchester $0 $200,000 $0 $23,378,550 $0 $0 $0 $23,578,550 $771,059 $1,378,441 $1,261,955 $24,420,566 $1,290,723 $1,832,386 $385,208 $31,340,338 Putnam Rockland Hudson Valley Hudson Valley (All) 21,945,285 21,546,972 23,722,709 42,579,355 37 17,869,980 10,910,445 17,748,159 78,161,453 Monthly Average Cost of Construction per Permit Single Family Homes 2009 Counties July June May April March February January Monthly Average Columbia $46,667 $0 $46,667 $0 $0 $0 $123,158 $115,873 Dutchess $281,065 $246,953 $113,182 $170,990 $208,300 $225,206 $181,083 $202,530 Greene $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Orange $167,896 $148,263 $147,011 $160,746 $197,622 $181,810 $167,409 $165,233 Putnam $191,400 $200,870 $273,506 $0 $322,660 $337,980 $412,660 $285,780 Rockland $301,257 $339,625 $540,017 $263,500 $343,000 $200,339 $208,654 $314,674 Sullivan $186,205 $247,667 $137,089 $122,394 $92,131 $97,914 $101,145 $128,570 Ulster $165,846 $198,402 $87,091 $147,901 $192,531 $126,250 $84,500 $147,153 Westchester $455,790 $561,360 $570,782 $497,161 $509,863 $447,452 $481,093 $504,806 Hudson Valley $271,464 $265,375 $270,611 $238,931 $263,163 $226,951 $225,493 $251,713 Monthly Average Cost of Construction per Permit Non-single Family Construction (# of buildings) 2009 Counties March February January Monthly Average July June May April $531,059 $392,814 $420,652 $955,906 $570,181 $489,919 $255,208 $477,716 $240,000 $0 $0 $0 $663,194 $535,200 $0 $479,465 $86,110 $57,348 $57,348 $65,000 $66,161 Columbia Dutchess Greene Orange Putnam Rockland Sullivan Ulster $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $260,000 $0 $130,000 Westchester $0 $200,000 $0 $7,792,850 $0 $0 $0 $5,894,638 $771,059 $592,814 $420,652 $8,834,866 $1,290,723 $1,342,467 $320,208 $1,938,970 858,189 691,263 9,073,797 1,553,886 1,569,418 545,701 $1,095,341 Hudson Valley Hudson Valley (All) 1,042,523 38 The Rate of Inflation Year-to-Year Percent Change in CPI-U 2003 to July 2009 Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) NY, NY -Northeastern NJ 2009 2008 2007 2006 2004 2005 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average 2003 1.52% 1.59% 0.84% 0.76% -0.10% -0.60% 3.67% 3.56% 3.81% 3.55% 3.99% 4.53% 5.11% 5.38% 5.16% 4.29% 2.18% 1.57% 2.72% 3.08% 2.91% 2.53% 2.50% 2.54% 2.48% 1.89% 2.43% 3.11% 3.89% 3.66% 3.75% 3.59% 2.73% 3.62% 4.82% 5.65% 4.99% 4.67% 3.29% 2.35% 2.60% 3.31% 4.10% 3.88% 4.42% 4.17% 3.42% 2.28% 3.41% 4.08% 4.81% 4.49% 3.91% 3.58% 2.67% 2.50% 3.20% 3.71% 3.86% 4.62% 3.95% 3.31% 3.16% 3.65% 3.91% 3.76% 3.29% 3.32% 3.14% 2.55% 2.82% 2.82% 2.97% 3.11% 3.26% 3.25% 3.10% 3.21% 0.67% 3.90% 2.81% 3.78% 3.88% 3.53% 3.07% Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) US City Average 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0.02% 0.23% -0.37% -0.73% -1.27% -1.42% 4.29% 4.03% 3.97% 3.93% 4.16% 5.01% 5.62% 5.38% 4.95% 3.69% 1.06% 0.10% 2.08% 2.42% 2.78% 2.57% 2.69% 2.69% 2.36% 1.97% 2.76% 3.52% 4.31% 4.06% 4.10% 3.88% 4.42% 4.17% 3.42% 2.28% 3.41% 4.08% 4.81% 4.49% 3.91% 3.58% 2.97% 3.01% 3.15% 3.51% 2.80% 2.53% 3.17% 3.64% 4.69% 4.35% 3.46% 3.42% 1.93% 1.69% 1.74% 2.29% 3.05% 3.27% 2.99% 2.65% 2.54% 3.19% 3.52% 3.26% 2.60% 2.98% 3.02% 2.22% 2.06% 2.11% 2.11% 2.16% 2.32% 2.04% 1.77% 1.88% Average -0.59% 3.85% 2.85% 3.88% 3.39% 2.68% 2.27% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Compiled by the Marist College Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 40 9/29/2009 The Rate of Inflation Year-to-Year Change - 2001 to July 2009 (All Urban Consumers) 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 0.00% -1.00% -2.00% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 U.S. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Compiled by Bureau of Economic Research, School of Management, Marist College 2006 2007 2008 2009 NY Area 9/29/2009 41 Total Sales Tax Collection Quarters 2008:02-2009:02 County Columbia Dutchess Greene Orange Putnam Rockland Sullivan Ulster Westchester Hudson Valley 2009:02 2009:01 2008:04 2008:03 2008:02 $7,989,991 $33,956,512 $6,241,669 $53,551,603 $11,371,196 $41,378,574 $8,918,534 $22,174,842 $101,254,065 $7,008,124 $34,133,431 $6,378,693 $52,442,111 $10,740,232 $41,073,424 $7,587,668 $22,305,160 $104,718,131 $6,879,993 $37,116,801 $6,199,443 $53,364,174 $11,981,110 $40,678,402 $8,226,786 $23,594,487 $108,470,561 $8,841,393 $41,583,571 $7,864,924 $59,777,665 $13,702,969 $44,473,849 $11,251,800 $27,008,398 $118,979,962 $7,989,382 $37,500,354 $6,758,862 $56,724,327 $13,156,844 $39,917,549 $17,813,671 $24,421,036 $116,957,617 $286,836,987 $286,386,974 $296,511,758 $333,484,530 $321,239,641 Quarterly Percentage Change County Columbia Dutchess Greene Orange Putnam Rockland Sullivan Ulster Westchester Hudson Valley 2009:02-2009:01 2009:01-2008:04 2008:04-2008:03 2008:03-2008:02 2008:02-2008:01 14.01% -0.52% -2.15% 2.12% 5.87% 0.74% 17.54% -0.58% -3.31% 1.86% -8.04% 2.89% -1.73% -10.36% 0.97% -7.77% -5.46% -3.46% 4.22% -3.06% 4.87% 3.39% 13.12% 0.93% 3.13% 4.14% 2.79% 10.66% 10.89% 16.36% 5.38% 4.15% 11.41% -36.84% 10.59% 1.73% 10.31% 7.88% 3.33% 6.17% 7.73% -10.59% 125.57% 2.82% -1.29% 0.16% -3.41% 2.42% 3.81% 3.97% Source: NYS Department of Taxation and Finance Compiled by Bureau of Economic Research, School of Management, Marist College 9/29/2009 39