ECONOMIC REPORT of the HUDSON VALLEY Fourth Quarter 2009 MARIST COLLEGE Dr. Christy Huebner Caridi Bureau of Economic Research School of Management Poughkeepsie, New York 12601 Edited by Dana Gavin April 2010 This report is available on the Bureau of Economic Research homepage at http://www.marist.edu/management/bureau The support of research assistant Haley Hart and student research assistants Serena Bubenheim and Daniel Greco is acknowledged and appreciated. While every effort has been made to ensure that the information in this report is accurate, Marist College cannot be held responsible for any remaining errors. Economic Report of the Hudson Valley Since the peak of the business cycle in December of 2007, the job count for Hudson Valley residents has declined by 86,600 – a 7.50% decline; the job count in the Hudson Valley has fallen by 30,900 jobs – a 3.15% decline. These two factors, taken together, have led to a reduction in the average weekly wages (AWW) paid by Hudson Valley employers. This emerging trend – while relatively new to the Hudson Valley region – is the expected outcome when an economy is experiencing a protracted economic shock. Generally, employers will reduce the number of hours worked before they revert to reductions in their workforces. If employer confidence continues to wane, firms will let go unskilled and semi-skilled workers; the last group of workers to receive pink slips is the skilled worker. As the excess supply of labor increases relative to demand, the wages, salaries and benefits paid to all workers decline. An important secondary consequence of the imbalance between labor demand and supply is a reduction in the “quit rate,” a heightened propensity for the unemployed to accept part-time employment (as well as jobs for which they are overqualified) and an increase in the duration of unemployment. According to a study conducted at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the nationwide “quit rate” – the portion of all employees who voluntarily leave their job – was 1.30% in August of 2009, approximately one half the “quit rate” in 2000. Across the nation, the number of under-employed continues to rise. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that in December of 2009, 9.1 million persons –nationwide – were involuntary part-time workers, 9 million workers were unemployed for more than 15 weeks and 39.80% of the unemployed had been unemployed for more than 27 weeks as of December of 2009. In New York State, 4.50% of the labor force was unemployed for more than 15 weeks in the year 2009. Further, since the 1991 recession, economic growth and employment have become delinked. As a result, it is possible to be in a statistical expansion and a protracted household recession: the jobless recovery. GDP growth no longer guarantees full employment, higher wages and improved financial stability in the household sector. There are important short- and medium-term ramifications. During an economic downturn, earned income is substituted – in part – by income maintenance payments – transfer payments. This transfer of spending power – to the unemployed and under employed – places a floor under the economy and creates profits in the business sector. It is not, however, a viable substitute for job and income growth. Lingering weakness in the labor market creates dependence on income maintenance payments and an economic environment unfavorable to capital formation. This in turn creates a negative feedback loop that further weakens the demand for labor. During this current economic downturn, the demand for food stamps and extended unemployment payments is reaching record highs. As of the 4th quarter of 2009, one out of every 13.5 persons in the Hudson Valley was receiving food stamp benefits: The number of food stamp recipients has advanced 47.00% since the beginning of the recession. Further, as of the 4th quarter of 2009, total transfer payments paid to the household sector – statewide – increased 19.00% relative to the beginning of the recession in December of 2007. As of the 4th quarter, transfer payments accounted for 18.69 cents out of every dollar of total personal income (TPI). Over the same time period, earned income fell 2.76% and unearned income – interest, dividends and rents – declined 14.34%. That said, while total business profits have been positively impacted by declines in unit labor costs – increased labor productivity – the household sector continues to suffer. The necessary step to create a broad-based recovery in the household sector is the replacement of income maintenance payments by gainful employment. This will increase consumer confidence, reduce stress on state and local budgets and position the sector to rebuild wealth. Ω Hudson Valley Labor Force D 4th quarter Labor force participation in the Hudson Valley falls 2.34% relative to the 3rd quarter; labor force participation falls in the U.S. and NYS. In the 4th quarter of 2009, labor force participation – the number of Hudson Valley residents 1 willing and able to work – contracted relative to the 3rd quarter of 2009. This is in stark contrast to the steady increase in labor force participation recorded in the first nine months of the year. Between the 1st and 4th quarters of 2009, labor force participation fell from 1.21million to 1.20 million participants in the 4th quarter. Peak labor force participation occurred in the 3rd quarter at 1.23 million participants. During the 4th quarter of 2009, the number of available jobs in the region slipped 70,000 from 1.14 million in the 3rd quarter of 2009 to 1.07 million in the 4th quarter. Because labor force participation fell by more than the number of jobs lost, the unemployment rate fell from 7.63% in the 3rd quarter to 7.59% in the 4th quarter of 2009. Similarly, and over the same time period, New York State and the national economy witnessed a reduction in the level of joblessness that was a direct result of a reduction in the number of persons willing and able to work. Employers continue to shed job; albeit at a much slower rate. The largest single decline in labor force participation occurred in Sullivan County at 5.56%, followed by Columbia, Greene, Rockland and Westchester counties at 4.06%, 3.76%, 2.71% and 2.57%, respectively. Labor force participation in Dutchess fell 1.32 %. Overall, labor force participation in the Hudson Valley was unchanged relative to December of 2007; the number of jobs held by Hudson Valley residents has declined by 86,600 or 7.50%. As has been the case throughout this economic downturn, residents in the Putnam-Rockland-Westchester metropolitan statistical area (MSA) – lower Hudson Valley – experienced a lower rate of joblessness in the 4th quarter of 2009 when compared to residents in the upper Hudson Valley. 1 For the purposes of this report, the Hudson Valley Columbia, Dutchess, Greene, Orange, Putnam, Rockland, Sullivan, Ulster and Westchester counties. The New York State Department of Labor classifies Columbia and Greene as part of the Capital Region. 1 Non-Farm Employment by Place of Work2 D Since the peak of the previous business cycle, employment in the Hudson Valley has fallen by 30,900 jobs – a 3.15% decline. D Goods-producing industries reduced employment by 11,600 jobs; private serviceproviding industries shed 19,100 jobs. Since December of 2007, total non-farm employment in the Hudson Valley has fallen 3.15%, from 981,000 in December of 2007 to 950,100 in the 4th quarter of 2009. Over the period, employment in the goods-producing industries and private service-providing industries has declined 11,600 and 19,100, respectively. In the 4th quarter of 2009, the region added 3,300 non-farm jobs. Across the region, employment in the manufacturing sector continues to decline, from 61,700 jobs in December of 2007 to 55,100 jobs in the 4th Date Gov. Service Goods Manu. quarter of 2009: 47.00% of Providing Producing 87.81% 12.19% 6.28% the total loss was experienced Hudson Valley Dec-07 18.60% Oct-09 19.10% 88.47% 11.53% 5.82% in the PoughkeepsieDec-09 19.16% 88.61% 11.37% 5.80% Newburgh-Middletown, NY Dec-07 17.16% 89.76% 10.24% 6.15% NYS MSA (Dutchess and Orange Oct-09 17.47% 90.34% 9.66% 5.65% counties). Dec-09 17.52% 90.52% 9.50% 5.61% Over the two-year Dec-07 16.37% 84.23% 15.77% 9.92% U.S. period ending in December Oct-09 17.31% 85.85% 14.15% 8.85% of 2009, the government Dec-09 17.35% 86.18% 13.79% 8.94% sector’s share of total nonfarm employment in the Hudson Valley increased 3.00% ,from 18.60% to 19.16%; nationwide, the government share of non-farm employment increased 6.00%, from 16.37% to 17.35%. In New York State, the share of total employment increased 2.00%. Across the region, employment in the goods-producing industries – which currently represents 11.37% of all non-farm employment in the Hudson Valley – has fallen 6.75%, compared to a .91% increase in the service -providing industries. Nationwide, total non-farm employment has fallen 6.00%, from 138.9 million in December of 2007 to 130.4 million in December of 2009. Goods-producing employment – which currently represents 13.79% of total employment – has fallen 12.55%; employment in the service- providing industries – 86.18% of current non-farm 2 Current Employment Statistics (CES): survey of sample employers excludes self-employed, agricultural, domestic workers and the military. Place of Work Series. 2 employment – has increased 2.32%. The level changes are 4.03 million and 4.39 million, respectively. As of the 4th quarter of 2009, employment in the manufacturing, information and federal government sectors, in the Rockland-Westchester-Putnam, NY MSA, continued to decline relative to the peak of the business cycle in December of 2007. All others sectors in the MSA are above their inter-recession lows. Employment in the state government, education services (private sector), health care, social assistance and hospital sectors have risen above their pre-recession levels. The aforementioned sectors represented 26.63% of total employment non-farm as of the 4th quarter of 2009. In the Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY MSA (Dutchess and Orange counties), employment in the state government, manufacturing, information, financial activities, finance and insurance sectors continued to decline relative to the peak of the business cycle in December of 2007. Employment in the federal and local government, local government education, health care, social assistance, and education services (private sector) have raised above their pre-recession levels. The aforementioned sectors represented 37.75% of total employment as of the 4th quarter of 2009. All others sectors in the MSA are above their inter-recession lows. In the Kingston, NY MSA (Ulster County), employment in the federal government, manufacturing, wholesale trade, information and financial activities continues to decline relative to the peak of the business cycle in December of 2007. Employment in the local government and education services (private) sector has risen above their pre-recession levels. All other sectors in the MSA are above their interrecession lows. In Columbia County, employment in the goods-providing industries continues to decline relative to the peak of the business cycle in December of 2009; total government employment has risen above the inter-recession low reached in the first quarter of 2009, and employment in the education health services has increased 4.65% relative to December of 2007. In Greene County, employment in the government sector is flat, and private service-providing continues to decline. In Sullivan County, both goodsproducing and service-providing employment are above their inter-recession lows reached in the first quarter of 2009. Government employment recorded a slight decline relative to December of 2007. Non-Farm Employment by Place of Work and Average Weekly Wage3 Trends D On average, 3rd quarter weekly wages fell relative to the 2nd quarter. Average weekly wages (AWW) in the Rockland-Westchester-Putnam, NY MSA, fell in the 3rd quarter of 2009 relative to the 2nd quarter; in contrast, there was no significant change in the level of non-farm employment. Within the MSA, AWW in the service-providing industries advanced in Putnam and Rockland counties and recorded a slight decline in Westchester County. AWW in the goods-producing industries increased 3 Average weekly wage data was secured through a special request of the New York State Department of Labor. 3 in Putnam and Westchester counties and fell in Rockland County. In the government sector, AWW increased in Rockland County and fell in both Putnam and Westchester counties. Compared to the peak of Average Weekly Wages the business cycle in the 4th quarter GoodsServiceNon-farm Government Producing Providing of 2007, non-farm AWW in Putnam, Putnam Rockland and Westchester counties 2007.Q4 $891 $1,058 $1,098 $849 were down 5.61%, 6.31% and 2009.Q2 $884 $1,374 $955 $718 15.13%, respectively. The primary 2009.Q3 $841 $947 $1,148 $751 cause is a significant reduction in the Rockland AWW paid in the service-providing 2007.Q4 $951 $985 $1,281 $889 industries. 2009.Q2 $911 $1,112 $1,231 $782 2009.Q3 $891 $1,274 $950 $795 In the PoughkeepsieWestchester Newburgh-Middletown, NY MSA 2007.Q4 $1,249 $1,196 $1,524 $1,219 (Dutchess and Orange counties), rd 2009.Q2 $1,117 $1,397 $1,347 $1,025 3 quarter non-farm employment 2009.Q3 $1,060 $1,065 $1,361 $1,021 reached an inter-recession low and nd AWW declined relative to the 2 quarter of 2009.The primary cause for the decline in AWW was a significant weakening in Average Weekly Wages the AWW paid by the total NonGoodsServicefarm Government Producing Providing government sector. Over the same Dutchess time frame, employment in the 2007.Q4 $876 $905 $1,496 $727 government sector reached its inter2009.Q2 $901 $1,075 $1,557 $688 recession low. Across the MSA, 2009.Q3 $889 $953 $1,560 $720 AWW in the service providing Orange industries advanced; AWW in the 2007.Q4 $748 $934 $865 $716 goods-producing industries recorded 2009.Q2 $777 $1,123 $849 $653 a slight increase in Dutchess County 2009.Q3 $732 $957 $836 $659 and a decline in Orange County. Compared to the peak of the business Average Weekly Wages cycle in the 4th quarter of 2007, GoodsServiceAWW in the non-farm sector were up Non-farm Government Producing Providing 1.48% in Dutchess County and down Columbia 2007.Q4 $666 $646 $884 $634 2.14% in Orange County. 2009.Q2 $653 $751 $789 $591 In the Kingston, NY MSA 2009.Q3 $650 $615 $814 $675 (Ulster County), and in the minor Greene counties of Columbia and Sullivan 2007.Q4 $644 $780 $884 $511 non-farm employment and its 2009.Q2 $674 $898 $876 $496 subsectors – service- providing and 2009.Q3 $655 $880 $942 $491 goods-producing – reached a interSullivan recession low in the 1st quarter of 2007.Q4 $664 $855 $649 $637 2009. In contrast, non-farm 2009.Q2 $679 $984 $634 $562 2009.Q3 $638 $807 $669 $581 employment – including serviceUlster providing and goods-producing – in 2007.Q4 $694 $876 $834 $650 Greene County continued to decline 2009.Q2 $716 $1,050 $800 $570 relative to the peak of the business 2009.Q3 $665 $807 $809 $575 cycle in December of 2007. 4 Throughout the MSA and the aforementioned three minor counties, 3rd quarter AWW in the non-farm sector weakened relative to the AWW in the 2nd quarter of 2009. The primary driver was a broad-based decline in the AWW paid in the government sector. Compared to the peak of the business cycle in the 4th quarter of 2007, AWW in the nonfarm sector were down 4.18% in Ulster County (MSA), 3.92% in Sullivan County, 2.40% in Columbia County and up 1.71% in Greene County. Monthly Income Maintenance Benefits (Social Assistance) D The number of food stamp recipients continues to increase. D As of the 4th quarter of 2009, approximately one out of every 13.5 persons in the Hudson Valley was receiving food stamp benefits. In the 4th quarter of 2009, 178,000 persons per month were receiving food stamp benefits, compared to 168,000 in the 3rd quarter of 2009. This is a three-month increase of 6.12% and a 27.53% year-over-year increase. Over the same one year time frame, the number of food stamp recipients in New York City and New York State advanced 291,000 (21.88%) and 490,000 (22.29%), respectively. As of the 4th quarter of 2009, approximately one out of every 13.5 persons in the Hudson Valley was receiving food stamp benefits. Statewide the number is approximately one out of every 7.5 persons. Income guidelines for food stamp eligibility are based on federal poverty levels. Currently, the maximum food stamp allowance is $200.00 for the first person with a sliding scale for each additional household member. Households with more than seven members receive a flat sum of $150.00 per additional member above seven. The food stamp program is funded by the federal government. 5 The number of persons in the Hudson Valley who received Total Temporary Assistance (TTA) – which includes Family Assistance (FA) 4 and Safety Net Assistance (SNA) 5 – increased 4.16% between the 4th and 3rd quarters of 2009. Year-over-year the total number of TTA recipients has increased 16.82%. Between the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2009, TTA recipients in New York State and New York City increased 3.04% and 2.72%, respectively. Year-over-year, TTA recipients increased 7.36% in New York State and 4.75% in New York City. Home Sales, Prices and Building Permits B 4th quarter homes sales were up 37.64% relative to the 4th quarter of 2008. Sales of existing single family homes advanced 37.64% between the 4th quarter of 2008 and the 4th quarter of 2009. Over the same time period, existing home sales in New York State increased 22.18%. Between the 4th quarters of 2009 and the inter-recession low reached in the 1st quarter of 2009, the sale of existing single family homes more than doubled, from 1,661 homes sold in the 1st quarter of 2009 to 3,547 homes in the 4th quarter of 2009. Several factors have contributed to the rebound in the housing market: the first-time home buyer’s credit in concert with the actions of the Federal Reserve and U.S. Treasury to support the market for mortgagebacked securities, a slowdown in the rate of joblessness 4th Qt Peak Median % Median Peak and a rebuilding of the employment Price change Price County Date opportunities within the region. Columbia 2007.Q1 $256,750 $215,000 -16.26% Across the entire region, the 4th Dutchess 2006.Q3 $360,000 $269,900 -25.03% quarter median selling price of an Greene 2007.Q4 $185,000 $174,000 -5.95% existing single family home was above Orange 2007.Q3 $330,000 $255,500 -22.58% the inter-recession lows recorded in the Putnam 2006.Q2 $435,777 $330,000 -24.27% 2nd quarter of 2009 in Orange County Rockland 2005.Q3 $529,950 $415,000 -21.69% and in the 1st quarter of 2009 across the Sullivan 2007.Q2 $187,500 $125,080 -33.29% balance of the region. Nowhere in the Ulster 2007.Q3 $265,000 $215,644 -18.62% region have median selling prices Westchester 2007.Q3 $730,000 $560,000 -23.29% reached the levels recorded during the 4 As of December 1996, Family Assistance is limited to 60 months per lifetime. To be eligible for Family Assistance, the household must include (care for) a minor child. 5 Safety Net Assistance has a lifetime limit of two years. 6 housing boom. Overall, the median selling price of an existing single family home peaked during the third quarter of 2007 at $354,628; the number of homes sold peaked in the third quarter of 2004 at 6,476 units. Weakness in the national and regional housing sectors continues to impact new single and multi-unit home construction. During the 12-month period ending in December of 2009, 907 single-family and 63 multi-family construction permits were issued across the region 6 . In contrast, for the full year 2008, 2,490 single-family and 189 multi-family construction permits were issued. If the current numbers hold, then 2009 housing construction will have declined 63.80% relative to 2008. In New York State, the demand for single -family housing construction permits fell from 12,972 in 2008 to 9,441 in 2009 – a 27.22% year-over-year decline. Over the same 12-month period, the demand for multi-family construction permits declined by 31,668 or 80.00%; nationwide, the demand for single and multi-family construction permits fell 24.6% and 60.00%, respectively. During the 4th quarter of 2009, permits were issued for seven multi-family projects in Orange and Ulster counties, five in Westchester County, three in Sullivan County and one in Rockland County. Of these new projects, the largest is a $20 million, 100-unit, four-building complex in Yonkers, Westchester. The largest single project remains the $23 million, 174-unit one-building complex in Yonkers, Westchester. Multi-Family Construction Permits January - December 2009 Source: U.S. Census Bureau County Orange Town/Village Number of Building Value of Construction Permit Number of Units Average Construction Cost per Unit Kiryas Joel Village 15 75 $7,947,097 $105,961 Montgomery town 1 2 $338,722 $169,361 Montgomery Village 5 30 $2,552,080 $85,069 Wallkill Town 2 6 $784,348 $130,725 Wawayanda Town 2 7 $509,657 $72,808 25 120 $12,131,904 $101,099 Fallsburg Town 8 16 $631,356 $39,460 Thompson Town 2 4 $130,000 $32,500 10 20 $761,356 $38,068 Sullivan Rockland Spring Valley Village 1 2 $240,000 $120,000 Kaser Village 2 12 $1,216,250 $101,354 Ramapo Town 3 7 $1,075,200 $153,600 6 21 $2,531,450 $120,545 Yonkers 8 276 $43,228,550 $156,625 White Plains 1 6 $600,000 $100,000 9 282 $43,828,550 $155,420 Saugerties Town 4 28 $1,809,180 $64,614 Shawangunk Town 1 2 $260,000 $130,000 Westchester Ulster Wawarsing town 6 6 12 $300,000 $25,000 11 42 $2,369,180 $56,409.05 U.S. Census Bureau data subject to an annual revision to be released in May of 2010. 7 National and Regional Inflation D Deflation fears lessen as CPI rises in the 4th quarter of 2009. The all-item CPI for the New York- Northern New Jersey-Long Island metropolitan statistical area (MSA) recorded a positive increase in the 4th quarter of 2009. This is the first uptick in regional prices since May of 2009 and the first significant increase since the November/December period of 2008. In November and December of 2009, the year-over-year change in the all item CPI was 1.82% and 2.33%, respectively. In October, the regional allitem CPI was unchanged relative to October of 2008. For the year, and on average, the all items CPI advanced .46%. The change in the U.S. City Average all-item CPI Index turned positive in November of 2009, at plus 1.85% relative to November of 2008. This was the first positive increase since February of 2009 and the first significant increase since the November/December period in 2008. The cost of food – in the MSA – declined .16% in the 4th quarter of 2009 compared to 12 Month Quarter-to Quarter Percentage Change New York-Northern NJ- Long Island U.S. City Average 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2008 Q4 2009 Q4 2009 Q3 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 Core 1.58% 1.40% 2.32% 2.62% 2.96% 1.74% 1.51% 1.83% 1.74% 1.99% All Items 1.37% -0.86% 0.33% 1.30% 2.69% 1.44% -1.63% -1.33% -0.07% 1.60% -0.16% 0.80% 3.07% 5.53% 6.54% -0.59% 0.37% 2.70% 4.83% 6.06% 2.06% 3.13% 5.10% 5.37% 5.52% 0.94% 1.97% 2.93% 3.30% 3.56% 1.10% 2.00% 3.13% 3.47% 3.47% 0.90% 1.57% 2.03% 2.13% 2.27% -3.79% -13.66% -9.98% 0.19% 6.86% -6.24% -12.27% -8.17% 2.54% 7.92% -17.17% -29.73% -37.53% -38.73% -18.53% 19.73% -32.33% -37.83% -38.43% -20.17% Medical 1.52% 0.46% 0.49% 0.10% 1.13% 3.47% 3.33% 3.13% 2.73% 3.13% Services th 1.31% 1.13% 2.40% 3.43% 3.70% 0.90% 0.70% 1.55% 2.60% 3.24% Food Rent Primary Residence Owners Equivalent Rent Household Energy Gasoline the 4 quarter of 2008: food costs have increased in four of the last five quarters. Housing costs and the cost of all services continued to increase, albeit at a slower pace. The cost of medical care advanced 1.52% year-over-year. This is the first single-digit increase in the last five quarters. Overall, all-item and core inflation remains weak compared to pre-recession levels. 8 Historically, food and housing have the largest impact on the typical household budget, followed by transportation and medical costs. Sales Tax Collection D Sales tax collection declines in the 4th quarter. An important indicator of retail sales activity and state and county revenue is sales tax collection. In the 4th quarter of 2009, total sales tax collection fell 2.94% relative to the 3rd quarter of that year. This is in stark contrast to the 3.49% increase between the 3rd and 2nd quarters of 2009. Across the region, Dutchess County was the only county that recorded an increase in sales tax collection in the 4th quarter relative to the 3rd quarter. Across the balance of the region, Westchester County recorded a slight decline (.39%), Sullivan, Greene and Columbia witnessed double digit declines. Relative to the 4th quarter of 2008, sales tax collection was up in Orange and Columbia, at .59% and .40%, respectively. Sales tax collection across the balance of the region was down. Ω 9 Labor Force, Employment and the Unemployment Rate for Hudson Valley Counties Average Quarterly County 4th 3rd 2008.Q3 - 2009.Q4 2nd 1st 4th 3rd Dec-07 % Change 12-07 and 4Q % Change From Peak Columbia Labor Force Employment Unemployment rate 30,967 28,667 7.37% 32,276 29,851 7.50% 31,965 29,597 7.41% 31,108 28,683 7.80% 31,329 29,668 5.30% 32,637 31,055 4.85% 31,207 29,855 5.90% -0.77% -3.98% 24.92% -1.11% -3.88% -3.85% Dutchess Labor Force Employment Unemployment rate 146,000 134,800 7.67% 147,954 136,044 8.07% 147,577 136,569 7.46% 146,743 135,592 7.60% 146,713 138,435 5.64% 148,195 140,244 5.37% 147,794 142,049 3.90% -1.21% -5.10% 96.67% -0.16% -4.23% 0.00% Greene Labor Force Employment Unemployment rate 23,567 21,600 8.47% 24,487 22,478 8.23% 24,015 21,927 8.73% 24,447 22,286 8.80% 23,811 22,216 6.70% 24,850 23,432 5.70% 24,202 22,970 5.10% -2.62% -5.96% 66.08% -1.46% -4.07% -6.48% Orange Labor Force Employment Unemployment rate 179,233 165,300 7.77% 181,788 166,885 8.23% 181,939 167,530 7.93% 180,463 166,333 7.87% 180,561 169,819 5.97% 182,294 172,039 5.60% 178,558 171,049 4.20% 0.38% -3.36% 85.00% -0.28% -3.00% 0.00% Putnam Labor Force Employment Unemployment rate 55,767 52,000 6.63% 57,103 53,163 6.93% 56,634 52,913 6.57% 55,955 52,295 6.57% 56,038 53,318 4.83% 57,220 54,513 4.73% 56,380 54,534 3.30% -1.09% -4.65% 100.91% -0.21% -2.51% 0.00% Rockland Labor Force Employment Unemployment rate 153,567 143,100 6.80% 157,841 146,228 7.37% 156,412 145,541 6.97% 154,145 143,841 6.70% 154,740 146,655 5.23% 158,126 149,941 5.17% 152,444 146,690 3.80% 0.74% -2.45% 78.95% -0.18% -2.48% 0.00% Sullivan Labor Force Employment Unemployment rate 34,867 31,800 8.93% 36,918 33,931 8.10% 35,712 32,646 8.57% 35,016 31,463 9.77% 35,396 32,777 7.40% 37,139 34,914 6.00% 34,973 32,970 5.60% -0.30% -3.55% 59.46% -0.60% -2.82% -17.09% Ulster Labor Force Employment Unemployment rate 90,267 83,367 7.67% 91,748 84,329 8.10% 91,726 84,777 7.74% 90,204 83,017 7.97% 90,115 84,734 5.97% 91,150 85,924 5.73% 92,391 88,385 4.30% -2.30% -5.68% 78.37% -0.70% -4.59% 0.00% Source: New York State Dept. of Labor Place of Residence Series Compiled by the Marist College Bureau of Economic Research, School of Management, Marist College 10 3/22/2010 Labor Force, Employment and the Unemployment Rate for Hudson Valley Counties Average Quarterly County 4th 3rd 2008.Q3 - 2009.Q4 2nd 1st 4th 3rd Dec-07 % Change 12-07 and 3Q % Change From Peak Westchester Labor Force Employment Unemployment rate 489,967 455,967 6.97% 502,875 465,972 7.33% 498,721 463,784 7.00% 493,624 458,365 7.13% 493,786 467,332 5.33% 503,320 477,803 5.07% 485,933 467,908 3.70% 0.83% -2.55% 88.38% -0.09% -2.48% 0.00% Lower Hudson Valley Labor Force Employment Unemployment rate 699,301 604,267 6.80% 717,819 665,363 7.21% 711,768 662,238 6.85% 703,724 654,501 6.80% 704,564 667,305 5.13% 718,667 682,256 4.99% 694,757 669,132 3.60% 0.65% -9.69% 88.89% -0.12% -2.48% 0.00% Labor Force Employment 504,901 465,534 515,171 473,518 512,934 473,045 507,980 467,375 507,925 477,650 516,265 487,609 509,125 487,278 -0.83% -4.46% -0.21% -2.89% Unemployment rate 7.98% 8.04% 7.97% 8.30% 6.16% 5.54% 4.83% 65.10% -3.17% Labor Force Employment Unemployment rate 1,204,202 1,069,801 7.59% 1,232,990 1,138,880 7.63% 1,224,701 1,135,283 7.30% 1,211,704 1,121,876 7.41% 1,212,489 1,144,955 5.57% 1,234,932 1,169,865 5.27% 1,203,882 1,156,410 3.94% 0.03% -7.49% 92.64% -0.16% -2.65% 0.00% Albany-Schenectady-Troy Labor Force Employment Unemployment rate 449,166 418,200 6.90% 457,547 425,174 7.10% 459,134 427,300 6.93% 456,197 422,844 7.33% 454,556 430,170 5.37% 462,837 439,744 5.00% 449,812 431,374 4.10% -0.14% -3.05% 68.29% -1.14% -3.31% -3.14% Putnam-Rockland-Westchester Upper Hudson Valley Total Hudson Valley New York City Labor Force Employment Unemployment rate 4,005,233 3,596,933 10.20% 4,051,400 3,642,200 10.10% 4,003,160 3,658,637 8.60% 3,987,673 3,670,122 7.97% 3,980,255 3,714,793 6.70% 3,973,498 3,739,395 5.87% 3,872,009 3,672,236 5.20% 3.44% -2.05% 96.15% 0.00% -2.60% 0.00% New York State Labor Force Employment Unemployment rate 9,671,133 8,835,267 8.63% 9,820,300 8,964,973 8.99% 9,756,928 8,974,394 8.00% 9,698,652 8,919,843 8.03% 9,691,113 9,090,485 6.20% 9,769,982 9,224,597 5.60% 9,536,673 9,087,015 4.70% 1.41% -2.77% 83.62% 0.00% -2.81% 0.00% U.S. (seasonally adjusted) Labor Force Employment Unemployment rate 153,289,000 138,724,000 9.50% 154,362,333 139,518,000 9.63% 154,912,667 140,591,000 9.27% 153,992,667 141,578,000 8.07% 154,648,333 144,046,333 6.87% 154,650,000 145,299,333 6.07% 153,836,000 146,294,000 4.9% -0.36% -5.17% 93.88% -0.36% -4.63% 0.00% Source: New York State Dept. of Labor Place of Residence Series Compiled by the Marist College Bureau of Economic Research, School of Management, Marist College 11 3/22/2010 Quarter-to-Quarter % Change (from Previous Year) in Employment for the Hudson Valley 2001.Q1-2009.Q4 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% 2001 2002 2003 2004 Hudson Valley 2005 New York State 12 2006 2007 United States 2008 2009 Total U.S. NonFarm Employees (Seasonally Adjusted in Thousands) Month 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 133,549 132,823 132,070 131,488 131,141 130,637 130,293 130,082 129,857 129,633 129,697 129,547 137,941 137,891 137,858 137,709 137,478 137,285 137,075 136,741 136,283 135,729 135,001 134,328 137,067 137,171 137,410 137,502 137,651 137,706 137,686 137,615 137,667 137,753 137,881 137,951 135,075 135,401 135,705 135,879 135,910 135,979 136,211 136,352 136,452 136,495 136,696 136,873 132,453 132,693 132,835 133,195 133,364 133,610 133,979 134,174 134,237 134,321 134,655 134,813 130,420 130,463 130,801 131,051 131,361 131,442 131,489 131,610 131,770 132,121 132,185 132,317 Average % Change 130,901 -4.30% 136,777 -0.59% 137,588 1.10% 136,086 1.79% 133,694 1.73% 131,419 1.09% 2005 2004 Monthly Changes in LABSTAT Series Report (in Thousands) Period 2009 2008 Jan-Feb Feb-Mar Mar-Apr Apr-May May-Jun Jun-Jul Jul-Aug Aug-Sep Sep-Oct Oct-Nov Nov-Dec Dec-Jan (726) (753) (582) (347) (504) (344) (211) (225) (224) 64 (150) (20) (50) (33) (149) (231) (193) (210) (334) (458) (554) (728) (673) (779) Total Average (4,022) (335) (4,392) (366) 2007 104 239 92 149 55 (20) (71) 52 86 128 70 (10) 874 73 *All numbers have been adjusted for recent changes 13 2006 326 304 174 31 69 232 141 100 43 201 177 194 240 142 360 169 246 369 195 63 84 334 158 262 43 338 250 310 81 47 121 160 351 64 132 136 1,992 166 2,622 219 2,033 169 Month to Month Change in Non-Farm Employment (in thousands) 200 (20) (150) Dec-Jan/09 Nov-Dec/09 Oct-Nov/09 Sep-Oct/09 (673) (728) Jul-Aug Aug-Sep Sep-Oct Oct-Nov Nov-Dec Dec-Jan Jan-Feb/ 09 Feb-Mar/ 09 Mar-Apr/09 Apr-May/09 May-Jun/09 Jun-Jul/09 (224) (753) Aug-Sep/09 (504) (582) (554) (726) (225) (344) (347) (334) (458) Jul-Aug/09 (100) Apr-May Mar-Apr 14 (211) (231) (149) Feb-Mar 5 (800) Jun-Jul (700) (210) (600) May-Jun (500) (193) (400) (33) (300) Jan-Feb (200) (50) - 64 100 Wage and hours data for Manufacturing workers (NAICS 30) Average Weekly Hours New York City** January February March April May June July August September October November December 2009 39.0 38.2 38.5 38.6 39.3 38.7 38.8 38.2 38.9 39.6 38.9 40.6 2008 37.3 38.5 38.4 38.4 37.4 37.6 37.6 37.1 37.0 38.4 38.4 39.8 2007 38.4 37.9 37.3 39.0 40.6 40.7 40.4 39.4 40.0 39.9 40.4 42.3 2006 35.2 36.2 36.0 35.1 37.2 38.3 35.8 37.2 37.8 37.7 39.2 36.8 2005 37.7 37.7 38.0 38.7 38.4 37.3 35.8 38.9 34.9 35.1 35.4 36.5 2004 35.7 35.6 36.4 34.6 36.4 36.0 34.6 36.2 35.7 37.6 38.1 37.6 2003 38.4 37.4 37.0 36.3 36.9 36.8 36.0 34.6 36.4 36.3 36.3 36.0 2002 36.6 36.8 37.3 36.8 36.7 37.6 38.0 37.8 37.6 36.5 37.3 38.7 New York State** January February March April May June July August September October November December 2009 37.8 38.4 38.4 37.9 38.7 39.6 38.8 39.2 40.1 40.5 40.3 40.7 2008 40.0 40.0 40.2 40.4 39.5 39.4 39.1 39.6 39.3 39.2 39.2 38.6 2007 41.1 39.7 40.3 41.1 41.1 41.3 40.3 41.1 41.3 40.3 41.2 41.3 2006 40.7 41.3 41.7 40.0 41.2 41.5 40.3 41.0 41.5 40.8 41.1 41.8 2005 39.3 39.4 39.2 39.6 39.4 39.1 38.5 39.2 39.9 40.5 40.2 40.4 2004 39.6 39.6 39.7 39.1 39.9 39.6 38.9 39.7 39.5 39.7 40.2 40.5 2003 40.3 40.3 40.3 39.9 40.1 40.0 39.0 38.9 40.2 40.1 40.2 40.4 2002 39.8 40.3 40.6 40.2 40.5 40.3 39.6 40.0 40.6 40.4 40.6 41.1 United States* January February March April May June July August September October November December 2009 39.8 39.5 39.4 39.6 39.4 39.5 39.8 39.8 39.9 40.0 40.5 40.6 2008 41.1 41.1 41.2 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 40.9 40.5 40.4 40.3 39.9 2007 40.9 40.9 41.2 41.1 41.1 41.4 41.3 41.4 41.4 2006 40.9 41.0 41.1 41.2 41.1 41.3 41.5 41.3 41.1 41.2 41.0 41.0 2005 40.7 40.6 40.4 40.5 40.4 40.4 40.5 40.6 40.7 41.0 40.8 40.8 2004 41.0 41.0 40.9 40.8 40.4 40.7 40.8 40.9 40.8 40.7 40.5 40.5 2003 40.3 40.4 40.4 40.1 40.2 40.3 40.1 40.2 40.8 40.7 41.2 41.3 2002 40.2 40.3 40.6 40.5 40.6 40.7 40.4 40.5 40.5 40.3 40.4 40.5 41.2 41.3 41.1 Seasonly Adjusted* Not Seasonly Adjusted** Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Compiled by Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 15 3/23/2010 Wage and hours data for Manufacturing workers (NAICS 30) Average Hourly Earnings New York City January February March April May June July August September October November December 2009 $16.38 $16.54 $16.90 $16.89 $17.08 $18.44 $16.10 $16.47 $16.29 $16.24 $16.04 $16.30 2008 $15.90 $15.97 $15.94 $15.91 $15.84 $16.15 $16.26 $16.00 $16.33 $16.03 $16.04 $16.38 2007 $15.89 $15.90 $15.74 $15.42 $14.60 $15.00 $14.58 $14.59 $14.93 $14.70 $14.53 $14.65 2006 $15.04 $14.92 $15.58 $15.41 $14.94 $15.00 $15.30 $15.49 $14.92 $15.53 $15.43 $16.55 2005 $15.15 $15.10 $14.93 $15.36 $15.89 $15.92 $15.30 $14.91 $15.25 $15.03 $15.89 $15.33 2004 $13.99 $13.96 $13.93 $14.04 $13.92 $14.51 $14.78 $14.25 $14.27 $14.04 $14.63 $15.06 2003 $13.53 $12.94 $13.68 $13.83 $13.66 $13.66 $14.35 $14.21 $14.37 $13.48 $13.97 $14.08 2002 $13.00 $12.74 $12.92 $13.43 $13.32 $12.74 $12.73 $13.00 $12.97 $13.40 $13.31 $13.26 New York State January February March April May June July August September October November December 2009 $18.09 $18.33 $18.24 $18.51 $18.44 $18.45 $18.65 $18.14 $18.90 $18.69 $18.40 $18.40 2008 $18.10 $18.22 $18.35 $18.49 $18.49 $18.63 $18.68 $18.74 $18.91 $18.93 $18.70 $18.88 2007 $18.33 $18.43 $18.59 $18.68 $18.48 $18.75 $18.57 $18.78 $18.64 $18.24 $18.18 $18.17 2006 $17.74 $18.02 $18.16 $18.40 $18.40 $18.48 $18.32 $18.47 $18.25 $18.37 $18.42 $18.49 2005 $17.76 $17.74 $17.56 $17.77 $17.72 $17.83 $17.55 $17.86 $17.89 $17.62 $17.95 $17.93 2004 $17.17 $17.00 $16.92 $17.20 $17.26 $17.24 $17.14 $17.32 $17.67 $17.33 $17.45 $17.74 2003 $16.79 $16.70 $16.74 $16.69 $16.70 $16.60 $16.56 $16.88 $16.89 $16.71 $16.91 $17.20 2002 $16.65 $16.81 $16.84 $17.00 $16.71 $16.62 $16.39 $16.64 $16.77 $16.68 $17.00 $16.85 United States January February March April May June July August September October November December 2009 $17.99 $18.07 $18.10 $18.11 $18.11 $18.13 $18.28 $18.26 $18.35 $18.35 $18.38 $18.37 2008 $17.49 $17.55 $17.61 $17.62 $17.65 $17.71 $17.78 $17.76 $17.79 $17.86 $17.94 $17.92 2007 $17.02 $17.06 $17.11 $17.20 $17.23 $17.28 $17.30 $17.33 $17.34 $17.34 $17.40 $17.41 2006 $16.71 $16.72 $16.74 $16.78 $16.79 $16.80 $16.80 $16.85 $16.83 $16.88 $16.89 $16.95 2005 $16.38 $16.42 $16.43 $16.48 $16.54 $16.56 $16.58 $16.65 $16.60 $16.71 $16.68 $16.70 2004 $15.94 $15.98 $16.01 $16.07 $16.08 $16.12 $16.16 $16.22 $16.29 $16.27 $16.29 $16.34 2003 $15.58 $15.62 $15.62 $15.63 $15.64 $15.69 $15.69 $15.76 $15.88 $15.81 $15.92 $16.05 2002 $15.05 $15.12 $15.15 $15.17 $15.23 $15.27 $15.27 $15.34 $15.38 $15.45 $15.48 $15.55 Seasonly Adjusted* Not Seasonly Adjusted** Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Compiled by Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 16 3/23/2010 Wage and hours data for Manufacturing workers (NAICS 30) Average Weekly Earnings New York City January February March April May June July August September October November December 2009 $638.82 $631.83 $650.65 $651.95 $671.24 $713.63 $624.68 $629.15 $633.68 $643.10 $623.96 $661.78 2008 $593.07 $614.85 $612.10 $610.94 $592.42 $607.24 $611.38 $593.60 $604.21 $615.55 $615.94 $651.92 2007 $610.18 $602.61 $587.10 $601.38 $592.76 $610.50 $589.03 $574.85 $597.20 $586.53 $584.01 $619.70 2006 $529.41 $540.10 $560.88 $540.89 $555.77 $574.50 $547.74 $554.54 $555.02 $587.03 $581.71 $648.76 2005 $571.16 $569.27 $567.34 $594.43 $610.18 $593.82 $547.76 $580.00 $532.23 $527.55 $562.51 $561.08 2004 $499.44 $496.98 $507.05 $485.78 $506.69 $522.36 $511.39 $515.85 $509.44 $527.90 $557.40 $566.26 2003 $519.55 $483.96 $506.16 $502.03 $504.05 $502.69 $516.60 $491.67 $523.07 $489.32 $507.11 $506.88 2002 $475.80 $468.83 $481.92 $494.22 $488.84 $479.02 $483.74 $491.40 $487.67 $489.10 $496.46 $513.16 New York State January February March April May June July August September October November December 2009 $683.80 $703.87 $700.42 $701.53 $713.63 $730.62 $723.62 $711.09 $757.89 $756.95 $741.52 $748.88 2008 $724.00 $728.80 $737.67 $743.30 $730.36 $734.02 $730.39 $742.10 $743.16 $738.27 $733.04 $728.77 2007 $753.36 $731.67 $749.18 $767.75 $759.53 $774.38 $748.37 $771.86 $769.83 $735.07 $749.02 $750.42 2006 $722.02 $744.23 $757.27 $735.60 $758.08 $764.85 $738.30 $757.27 $757.38 $749.50 $756.65 $772.46 2005 $697.97 $698.96 $688.35 $703.69 $698.17 $697.15 $675.68 $700.11 $713.81 $713.61 $721.59 $724.37 2004 $679.93 $673.20 $671.72 $672.52 $688.67 $682.70 $667.75 $687.60 $697.97 $688.00 $701.49 $718.47 2003 $676.64 $673.01 $674.62 $665.93 $669.67 $664.00 $645.84 $656.63 $678.98 $670.07 $679.78 $694.88 2002 $662.67 $677.44 $683.70 $683.40 $676.76 $669.79 $649.04 $665.60 $680.86 $673.87 $690.20 $692.54 United States January February March April May June July August September October November December 2009 $716.00 $713.77 $713.14 $717.16 $713.53 $716.14 $727.54 $726.75 $732.17 $734.00 $750.31 $758.71 2008 $718.84 $721.31 $725.53 $722.42 $723.65 $726.11 $728.98 $726.38 $720.50 $721.54 $722.98 $715.01 2007 2006 $682.62 $684.29 $686.78 $691.10 $689.25 $691.34 $696.37 $695.08 $691.71 $695.46 $692.49 $694.95 2005 $666.67 $666.65 $663.77 $667.44 $668.22 $669.02 $671.49 $675.99 $675.62 $685.11 $680.54 $681.36 2004 $653.54 $655.18 $654.81 $655.66 $659.28 $656.08 $659.33 $663.40 $664.63 $662.19 $659.75 $661.77 2003 $627.87 $626.36 $629.49 $623.64 $628.73 $635.45 $621.32 $633.55 $647.90 $643.47 $655.90 $662.87 2002 $605.01 $609.34 $615.09 $614.39 $618.34 $621.49 $616.91 $621.27 $622.89 $622.64 $625.39 $629.78 $696.12 $697.75 $704.93 $706.92 $708.15 $715.39 $716.22 $715.73 $717.88 $714.41 $718.62 $715.55 Seasonly Adjusted* Not Seasonly Adjusted** Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Compiled by Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 17 3/23/2010 Average Weekly Earnings of Manufacturing Workers $775.00 $725.00 NYS Dollars $675.00 $625.00 USA $575.00 ` $525.00 $475.00 NYC $425.00 2002 2003 2004 2005 NYC 2006 NYS 2007 2008 2009 USA Length of Average Work Week for Manufacturing Workers 43 42 NYS 41 Hours 40 USA 39 38 37 NYC 36 35 34 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 NYC Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Compiled by Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College NYS 18 2007 2008 2009 USA 3/23/2010 Employment Data by Industry: Levels CES Data (Data in 1000's) United States MSAs Rockland/Westchester/ Putnam Dutchess/Orange Dec-09 Dec-07 22,825.0 22,738.0 96.6 97.5 53.1 52.4 Federal Government 2,816.0 2,757.0 5.1 5.5 6.4 State Government 5,281.0 5,242.0 14.4 14.2 Local Government 14,728.0 14,739.0 77.1 8,363.1 8,385.0 17,871.0 Total Government Local Government Education Goods Producing Service-Providing Dec-09 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-07 Minor Counties Columbia Dec-09 5.1 Greene Dec-07 5.3 Dec-09 4.9 Sullivan Dec-07 4.8 Dec-09 6.4 Ulster Dec-07 6.7 Dec-09 Dec-07 16.1 15.8 6.4 0.4 0.5 9.2 9.6 4.7 4.8 77.8 37.5 36.4 11.0 10.5 43.4 45.5 24.5 23.3 6.2 6.3 21,904.0 64.7 71.0 29.0 33.9 2.3 2.9 1.6 1.9 2.7 2.8 6.1 7.1 112,577.0 116,971.0 509.1 522.2 222.7 223.6 18.1 18.7 13.0 13.6 22.9 23.6 56.5 57.2 Manufacturing 11,580.0 13,776.0 29.0 31.7 18.4 22.0 1.4 1.8 1.0 1.0 1.4 1.4 3.6 4.2 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 25,281.0 27,379.0 108.7 116.4 57.0 56.1 3.7 3.9 2.9 3.3 4.3 4.5 12.4 13.4 Wholesale Trade 5,581.9 6,053.7 23.5 24.8 9.3 9.8 1.2 1.4 Transportation and Warehousing 4,240.1 4,612.6 13.7 18.9 8.7 9.0 1.8 1.9 Retail Trade 14,871.1 16,156.4 67.2 72.7 37.8 36.1 9.4 10.1 Information 2,763.0 3,039.0 14.6 16.2 4.4 4.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.1 Financial Activities 7,667.0 8,232.0 35.6 36.9 9.0 9.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 1.2 1.2 2.5 2.7 Finance and Insurance 5,704.2 6,078.5 23.7 24.8 6.1 6.7 Professional and Business Services 16,569.0 7,839.9 69.2 73.8 20.9 21.2 1.5 1.7 0.5 0.6 1.4 1.4 4.3 4.4 Leisure and Hospitality 12,691.0 13,244.0 39.8 42.7 17.6 19.5 1.4 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.8 6.7 6.8 Data Source: New York State Department of Labor Complied by: Marist College SOM, Bureau of Economic Research 19 3/22/2010 Employment Data by Industry: Percent of Non-Farm Employment CES Data United States Dec-09 Total Government MSAs Rockland/Westchester/ Putnam Dutchess/Orange Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-07 17.61% 16.37% 16.84% 16.44% 21.36% 20.15% Federal Government 2.17% 1.99% 0.89% 0.93% 2.57% State Government 4.08% 3.77% 2.51% 2.39% Local Government 11.37% 10.61% 13.44% 6.45% 6.04% Goods Producing 13.79% Service-Providing Minor Counties Columbia Dec-09 Dec-07 3.70% 3.69% 7.51% 7.47% 13.12% 15.08% 13.99% 17.57% 16.33% 7.56% 7.67% 9.86% 8.96% 9.90% 9.79% 15.70% 11.28% 11.97% 11.67% 13.03% 11.27% 13.43% 10.96% 12.33% 10.55% 10.60% 9.74% 11.02% 86.87% 84.23% 88.72% 88.03% 89.58% 86.97% 88.73% 86.57% 89.04% 88.30% 89.45% 89.39% 90.26% 88.90% 8.94% 9.92% 5.05% 5.34% 7.40% 8.30% 6.86% 8.33% 6.85% 6.49% 5.47% 5.30% 5.75% 6.53% 19.51% 19.71% 18.94% 19.62% 22.93% 22.71% 18.14% 18.06% 19.86% 21.42% 16.80% 17.04% 19.81% 20.83% Wholesale Trade 4.31% 4.36% 4.10% 4.18% 3.74% 3.88% 1.92% 2.18% Transportation and Warehousing 3.27% 11.63% 2.39% 3.19% 3.50% 4.08% 2.88% 2.95% Retail Trade 11.48% 3.32% 11.71% 12.26% 15.21% 14.99% 15.02% 15.70% Information 2.13% 2.19% 2.54% 2.73% 1.77% 1.77% 1.47% 1.39% 1.37% 1.30% 0.78% 0.76% 1.44% 1.71% Financial Activities 5.92% 5.93% 6.20% 6.22% 3.62% 3.77% 2.94% 2.78% 2.74% 2.59% 4.69% 5.30% 3.99% 4.20% Finance and Insurance 4.40% 4.38% 4.13% 4.18% 2.45% 2.58% 12.79% 5.65% 12.06% 12.44% 8.41% 8.15% 7.35% 7.87% 3.42% 3.89% 5.47% 5.68% 6.87% 6.84% 9.79% 9.54% 6.94% 7.20% 7.08% 7.50% 6.86% 7.41% 15.75% 16.23% 9.38% 9.09% 10.70% 10.57% Data Source: New York State Department of Labor Complied By: Marist College, SOM, Bureau of Economic Research 20 25.38% Dec-09 0.01% Leisure and Hospitality 25.00% Dec-07 0.64% Professional and Business Services 31.17% Dec-09 2.46% Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 33.56% Dec-07 Ulster 24.57% Manufacturing 24.54% Dec-09 Sullivan 25.72% Local Government Education 25.00% Dec-07 Greene 3/22/2010 Rockland, Westchester, and Putnam Counties: Employment Data by Industry: CES Data Quarterly Data are Averages of Monthly Data (Data in 1000's; Data in red are near-term lows) Total Nonfarm Total Private Total Government Federal Government State Government Local Government Local Government Education Goods Producing Service-Providing Private Service-Providing Public Service-Providing Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Transportation and Warehousing Retail Trade Food and Beverage Stores Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores General Merchandise Stores Information Financial Activities Finance and Insurance Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Hospitals Leisure and Hospitality Accommodation and Food Services 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2009.Q4 2009.Q3 573.2 574.2 575.4 564.9 587.0 478.0 477.5 477.0 468.1 489.4 96.2 95.8 98.4 96.8 97.6 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.5 14.5 14.5 14.4 14.2 14.3 76.5 75.9 78.4 77.1 77.8 43.0 37.0 45.4 44.8 45.3 65.7 67.2 66.1 64.3 69.4 508.5 506.1 509.3 500.6 517.6 420.0 412.3 410.3 410.9 403.8 96.2 98.4 98.4 96.8 97.6 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.7 107.2 104.3 105.2 105.4 111.4 23.6 23.6 23.7 23.5 24.2 13.5 12.3 17.5 17.5 18.2 65.9 64.2 64.0 64.3 69.0 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.6 15.0 8.0 7.6 7.5 7.9 9.1 9.5 8.8 8.9 9.0 10.3 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.1 15.6 35.6 35.9 35.7 35.4 36.1 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.7 24.0 70.1 71.3 71.3 69.0 73.3 25.1 25.7 26.7 22.7 24.8 92.2 90.9 90.7 89.7 90.4 19.5 19.5 19.3 19.3 19.5 40.6 45.5 43.3 39.6 42.7 31.6 33.1 32.2 30.7 32.2 Source: NY State Department of Labor-Current Employment Survey Complied by Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 21 2008.Q3 575.8 486.7 97.0 5.5 14.5 77.0 40.1 69.9 513.8 416.8 97.0 30.8 107.5 24.3 17.1 66.1 14.8 8.7 9.7 15.8 36.6 24.3 74.6 21.9 89.0 19.4 46.9 32.3 Dec-07 593.2 495.7 97.5 5.5 14.2 77.8 45.5 71.0 522.2 424.7 97.5 31.7 116.4 24.8 18.9 72.7 15.0 10.5 11.7 16.2 36.9 24.8 73.8 24.9 88.8 18.9 42.7 32.5 Percent change Q4.09 and near term low 1.64% 2.11% 0.45% 0.00% 1.88% 0.83% 16.22% 2.18% 1.57% 2.11% 0.00% 0.00% 2.81% 0.28% 9.76% 2.92% 0.23% 6.67% 8.33% 0.00% 0.47% 0.14% 1.59% 21.92% 3.87% 3.17% 2.61% 3.04% Percent change Q4.09 and peak of last Business Cycle -3.20% -3.57% -1.33% -4.85% 1.88% -1.67% -5.49% -7.46% -2.62% -2.92% -1.33% -7.99% -7.88% -4.97% -28.57% -9.40% -3.11% -23.81% -18.52% -10.29% -3.61% -4.30% -5.01% 7.23% 3.87% 3.17% -4.84% -2.67% 3/22/2010 Dutchess and Orange Counties: Employment Data by Industry: CES Data Quarterly Data are Averages of Monthly Data (Data in 1000's; Data in red are near-term lows) Total Nonfarm Total Private Total Government Federal Government State Government Local Government local Government Education Goods Producing Service-Providing Private Service-Providing Public Service-Providing Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Transportation and Warehousing Retail Trade Food and Beverage Stores Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores General Merchandise Stores Information Financial Activities Finance and Insurance Professional and Business Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Hospitals Leisure and Hospitality Accommodation and Food Services 2009.Q4 252.2 199.0 53.2 6.5 9.2 37.5 24.5 29.4 222.8 169.6 53.2 18.5 56.2 9.3 8.6 37.1 7.1 5.3 5.8 4.4 9.0 6.1 21.0 13.2 38.0 8.7 18.1 15.4 Source: NY State Department of Labor-Current Employment Survey Complied by Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 2009.Q3 248.1 197.5 50.6 6.6 9.3 34.7 20.7 30.3 219.2 167.2 52.0 18.8 54.4 9.3 8.1 35.8 7.1 5.0 5.7 4.5 9.1 6.1 21.0 10.7 37.4 8.8 20.3 16.5 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 251.4 248.9 258.1 254.4 198.2 195.7 205.0 203.7 53.2 53.2 53.1 50.7 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.6 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.8 37.3 37.2 37.0 34.4 23.8 23.8 24.0 20.4 30.4 30.0 32.4 35.0 221.0 218.9 225.7 221.2 167.8 165.7 172.5 170.5 53.2 53.2 53.1 50.7 21.1 21.1 21.7 22.0 54.4 54.5 57.8 56.0 9.3 9.2 9.6 9.7 8.5 8.5 9.0 8.8 35.5 35.7 38.0 36.3 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.3 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.3 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.8 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.7 9.1 9.4 9.4 9.6 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.4 21.1 20.9 21.6 21.7 12.0 11.9 12.4 10.1 37.5 37.1 37.3 36.1 8.7 8.7 8.8 8.9 19.6 18.1 19.5 21.7 16.0 15.0 15.9 17.1 Dec-07 260.1 207.7 52.4 6.4 9.6 36.4 23.3 33.9 226.2 173.8 52.4 21.6 59.1 10.1 10.6 39.0 7.3 5.7 6.6 4.6 9.8 6.7 21.2 11.6 36.7 8.9 19.5 16.0 Percent change Percent change Q4.09 and peak Q4.09 and near of last Business term low Cycle 1.65% -3.04% 1.65% -4.20% 5.20% 1.59% 2.08% 2.08% 0.00% -4.17% 9.11% 3.02% 20.26% 5.29% 0.00% -13.27% 1.80% -1.50% 2.35% -2.42% 4.93% 1.53% 0.00% -14.35% 3.31% -4.86% 1.09% -7.92% 6.17% -18.87% 4.51% -4.87% 0.00% -2.74% 8.83% -7.02% 2.34% -11.62% 0.00% -4.35% 0.00% -8.16% 0.00% -8.96% 0.18% -1.10% 30.31% 13.79% 5.41% 3.63% 0.00% -2.25% 0.18% -7.01% 2.89% -3.54% 3/22/2010 22 Columbia County: Employment Data by Industry: CES Data Quarterly Data are Averages of Monthly Data (Data in 1000's; Data in red are near-term lows) Total Nonfarm Total Private Total Government Federal Government State Government Local Government Local Government Education Goods Producing Service-Providing Private Service-Providing Public Service-Providing Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Transportation and Warehousing Retail Trade Natural Resources, Mining and Construction Information Financial Activities Finance and Insurance Professional and Business Services Educational Health Services Health Care and Social Assistance Hospitals Leisure and Hospitality Accommodation and Food Services 2009.Q4 20.4 15.3 5.1 2009.Q3 21.0 16.0 5.0 2.3 18.1 13.0 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 20.9 15.8 5.0 20.1 15.1 4.9 21.2 16.1 5.0 21.6 16.7 5.0 Dec-07 21.6 16.2 5.3 1.4 3.7 2.6 18.4 13.5 4.9 1.5 3.7 2.5 18.3 13.3 5.0 1.5 3.8 2.5 17.6 12.7 4.9 1.6 3.7 2.8 18.4 13.4 5.0 1.7 3.8 2.9 18.8 13.8 5.0 1.7 3.8 2.9 18.7 13.4 5.3 1.8 3.9 0.9 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.5 1.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 4.5 1.5 4.5 1.5 4.5 1.4 4.4 1.6 4.5 1.6 4.4 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.6 2.1 Source: NY State Department of Labor-Current Employment Survey Complied by Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 23 Percent change Percent change Q4-09 and peak Q4.09 and near of last Business term low Cycle 1.49% -5.56% 1.32% -5.56% 4.08% -3.77% 0.00% -20.69% 2.84% -3.21% 2.36% -2.99% 0.00% -22.22% 0.00% -5.13% 0.00% -18.18% 0.00% 0.00% 20.00% 0.00% 1.7 4.3 7.14% -11.76% 4.65% 4.65% 1.6 7.69% -12.50% 3/22/2010 Greene County: Employment Data by Industry: CES Data Quarterly Data are Averages of Monthly Data (Data in 1000's; Data in red are near-term lows) Total Nonfarm Total Private Total Government Federal Government State Government Local Government Local Government Education Goods Producing Service-Providing Private Service-Providing Public Service-Providing Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Transportation and Warehousing Retail Trade Natural Resources, Mining and Construction Information Financial Activities Finance and Insurance Professional and Business Services Educational Health Services Health Care and Social Assistance Hospitals Leisure and Hospitality 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 14.9 10.2 4.7 14.8 10.1 4.7 15.4 10.7 4.7 Dec-07 15.4 10.7 4.8 1.0 2.9 1.7 13.1 8.2 4.9 1.0 3.0 1.6 12.8 8.0 4.8 1.0 3.1 1.5 13.4 8.7 4.7 1.0 3.1 1.9 12.9 8.2 4.7 1.0 3.1 2.0 13.4 8.7 4.7 1.1 3.2 1.9 13.6 8.8 4.8 1.0 3.3 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.5 1.4 0.5 1.2 0.5 1.3 0.5 1.3 0.6 1.3 2.1 2.4 2.1 2.8 2.2 2009.Q3 14.8 9.9 4.8 1.6 12.8 7.9 Source: NY State Department of Labor-Current Employment Survey Complied by Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 2009.Q2 14.4 9.7 4.7 2009.Q4 14.5 9.5 4.9 24 Percent change Q4.09 and near term low Percent change Q4.09 and peak of last Business Cycle 0.69% 0.00% 4.26% -5.84% -11.21% 2.08% 6.67% 0.00% 0.00% -15.79% -5.88% -10.23% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -12.12% 0.9 0.2 0.4 40.00% 0.00% 0.00% -22.22% 0.00% 0.00% 0.6 1.3 0.6 1.4 0.00% 13.82% -16.67% 0.00% 2.6 2.5 0.00% -16.00% 3/23/2010 Ulster County: Employment Data by Industry: CES Data Quarterly Data are Averages of Monthly Data (Data in 1000's; Data in red are near-term lows) Total Nonfarm Total Private Total Government Federal Government State Government Local Government Local Government Education Goods Producing Service-Providing Private Service-Providing Public Service-Providing Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Transportation and Warehousing Retail Trade Natural Resources, Mining and Construction Information Financial Activities Finance and Insurance Professional and Business Services Educational Health Services Health Care and Social Assistance Hospitals Leisure and Hospitality 3.6 12.2 1.3 1.7 9.2 2009.Q3 62.1 46.6 15.5 0.4 4.7 10.4 5.2 6.5 55.6 40.2 15.5 3.7 11.9 1.3 1.5 9.1 2009.Q2 62.8 46.6 16.3 0.5 4.9 10.9 6.6 6.4 56.5 40.2 16.3 3.7 12.0 1.3 1.7 9.0 2009.Q1 61.3 45.3 15.8 0.5 4.8 10.5 6.3 6.3 54.8 39.0 15.8 3.8 11.9 1.3 1.7 8.9 2008.Q4 63.4 47.6 15.9 0.5 4.6 10.7 6.3 6.7 56.7 40.8 15.9 3.9 12.8 1.4 1.8 9.6 2008.Q3 62.5 47.8 14.6 0.5 4.6 9.5 5.0 6.9 55.6 40.9 14.7 4.0 12.3 1.4 1.6 9.3 Dec-07 64.3 48.5 15.8 0.5 4.8 10.5 6.3 7.1 57.2 41.4 15.8 4.2 13.4 1.4 1.9 10.1 2.6 0.9 2.5 2.8 1.0 2.5 2.7 1.0 2.5 2.5 1.0 2.5 2.8 1.0 2.6 2.9 1.0 2.7 4.4 11.1 4.3 10.6 4.6 10.6 4.1 10.5 4.1 10.6 6.8 7.3 7.1 6.5 7.1 2009.Q4 62.8 46.6 16.1 0.4 4.7 11.0 6.2 6.2 56.5 40.4 Source: NY State Department of Labor-Current Employment Survey Complied by Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 25 Percent change Percent change Q4.09 and peak Q4.09 and near of last Business Cycle term low 2.45% 2.87% 1.90% 0.00% 2.17% 15.79% 24.00% 0.00% 3.10% 3.59% -2.33% -3.92% 1.90% -20.00% -2.08% 4.76% -1.59% -12.68% -1.22% -2.42% 0.00% 2.52% 0.00% 13.33% 3.37% -14.29% -8.96% -7.14% -10.53% -8.91% 2.9 1.1 2.7 4.00% 0.00% 0.00% -10.34% -18.18% -7.41% 4.2 10.4 4.4 10.3 7.32% 7.77% 0.00% 7.77% 7.6 6.8 4.62% 0.00% 3/23/2010 Sullivan County: Employment Data by Industry: CES Data Quarterly Data are Averages of Monthly Data (Data in 1000's; Data in red are near-term lows) Total Nonfarm Total Private Total Government Federal Government State Government Local Government Local Government Education Goods Producing Service-Providing Private Service-Providing Public Service-Providing Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Transportation and Warehousing Retail Trade Natural Resources, Mining and Construction Information Financial Activities Finance and Insurance Professional and Business Services Educational Health Services Health Care and Social Assistance Hospitals Leisure and Hospitality Accommodation and Food Services 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 26.4 19.6 6.8 25.1 18.5 6.6 26.7 20.0 6.7 28.1 21.6 6.6 Dec-07 26.4 19.7 6.7 1.4 4.3 2.9 24.7 18.2 6.5 1.4 4.4 2.7 23.7 16.9 6.8 1.4 4.3 2.4 22.7 16.1 6.6 1.3 4.2 2.7 24.1 17.3 6.8 1.3 4.5 2.8 25.4 18.8 6.6 1.3 4.6 1.4 0.2 1.2 1.5 0.3 1.3 1.3 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.2 1.3 1.4 0.2 1.3 1.4 5.8 1.4 5.7 1.4 5.7 1.4 5.6 2.6 4.0 2.8 2.2 2009.Q4 26.0 19.5 6.5 2009.Q3 27.6 21.1 6.5 2.8 23.2 16.7 Source: NY State Department of Labor- Current Employment Survery Compiled by Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 26 Percent change Percent change Q4.09 and peak Q4.09 and near of last Business term low Cycle 3.59% 5.41% 0.00% -1.52% -1.02% -2.99% 2.8 23.6 16.9 6.7 1.4 4.5 16.67% 2.20% 3.73% 0.00% -1.69% -1.18% 7.69% 2.38% 0.00% -4.44% 1.5 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.2 1.4 27.27% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -14.29% 1.5 5.8 1.5 5.7 1.5 5.7 0.00% 3.57% -6.67% 1.75% 2.7 3.9 2.4 18.18% 8.33% 3/23/2010 Food Stamps - Recipients Quarterly Sum Counties 2009.Q4 2009.Q3 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 Columbia 12,982 12,710 12,159 11,201 10,176 9,626 Dutchess 54,273 50,670 47,465 43,851 40,585 38,161 Greene 14,846 14,139 13,588 12,737 11,676 10,971 Orange 100,256 93,845 90,086 85,431 80,612 77,192 Putnam 5,009 4,581 4,181 3,599 3,272 3,156 Rockland 91,758 87,677 83,066 78,685 74,741 72,357 Sullivan 28,410 26,470 25,623 24,179 22,484 21,375 Ulster 47,743 44,929 41,931 38,500 35,002 32,464 Westchester 178,739 168,186 156,966 147,683 140,205 135,199 Hudson Valley Total 534,016 503,207 475,065 445,866 418,753 400,501 New York City 4,871,893 4,675,680 4,420,075 4,173,053 3,997,391 3,834,798 New York State 7,896,345 7,542,569 7,150,986 6,753,702 6,425,652 6,160,053 Quarterly Percentage Change Counties 2009.Q4 2009.Q3 2009 Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 Columbia 2.14% 4.53% 8.55% 10.07% 5.71% -0.07% Dutchess 7.11% 6.75% 8.24% 8.05% 6.35% 4.16% Greene 5.00% 4.06% 6.68% 9.09% 6.43% 2.72% Orange 6.83% 4.17% 5.45% 5.98% 4.43% 3.62% Putnam 9.34% 9.57% 16.17% 9.99% 3.68% 2.40% Rockland 4.65% 5.55% 5.57% 5.28% 3.29% 3.09% Sullivan 7.33% 3.31% 5.97% 7.54% 5.19% 0.77% Ulster 6.26% 7.15% 8.91% 9.99% 7.82% 2.90% Westchester 6.27% 7.15% 6.29% 5.33% 3.70% 3.68% Hudson Valley Total 6.12% 5.92% 6.55% 6.47% 4.56% 3.25% New York City 4.20% 5.78% 5.92% 4.39% 4.24% 4.09% New York State 4.69% 5.48% 5.88% 5.11% 4.31% 3.38% Data: New York State Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance Compiled by: Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 27 3/23/2010 Food Stamps - Expenditures Quarterly Sum 2009.Q3 2009.Q2 Counties 2009.Q4 Columbia $1,879,319 $1,856,871 $1,777,138 $1,375,879 $1,208,472 $946,781 Dutchess $7,864,094 $7,397,906 $6,998,023 $5,472,870 $4,959,761 $3,917,032 Greene $2,116,625 $2,005,684 $1,928,537 $1,547,226 $1,369,629 $1,087,200 Orange $14,798,877 $13,894,427 $13,227,481 $10,909,120 $9,893,473 $8,076,709 Putnam $677,530 $628,940 $602,005 $439,154 $380,871 $263,890 $13,170,004 $12,549,551 $11,945,796 $9,693,808 $8,985,893 $7,392,847 Sullivan $4,035,444 $3,752,947 $3,660,263 $2,953,118 $2,706,723 $1,975,314 Ulster $6,799,438 $6,425,981 $6,018,236 $4,705,095 $4,240,875 $3,256,764 Westchester $26,267,776 $24,775,050 $23,188,773 $18,662,820 $17,377,851 $14,385,006 Hudson Valley Total $77,609,107 $73,287,357 $69,346,252 $55,759,090 $51,123,548 $41,301,543 $778,981,098 $747,399,332 Rockland New York City New York State $708,030,390 $1,203,847,838 $1,153,163,927 $1,098,281,437 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 $573,260,819 $551,324,204 $440,140,484 $886,557,861 $838,063,751 $673,024,461 Quarterly Percentage Change Counties 2009.Q4 2009.Q3 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 Columbia 1.21% 4.49% 29.16% 13.85% 27.64% 0.57% Dutchess 6.30% 5.71% 27.87% 10.35% 26.62% 3.41% Greene 5.53% 4.00% 24.64% 12.97% 25.98% 3.41% Orange 6.51% 5.04% 21.25% 10.27% 22.49% 2.67% Putnam 7.73% 4.47% 37.08% 15.30% 44.33% -1.21% Rockland 4.94% 5.05% 23.23% 7.88% 21.55% 3.10% Sullivan 7.53% 2.53% 23.95% 9.10% 37.03% 1.00% Ulster 5.81% 6.78% 27.91% 10.95% 30.22% 4.42% Westchester 6.03% 6.84% 24.25% 7.39% 20.81% 4.45% Hudson Valley Total 5.90% 5.68% 24.37% 9.07% 23.78% 3.43% New York City 4.23% 5.56% 23.51% 3.98% 25.26% 3.08% New York State 4.40% 5.00% 23.88% 5.79% 24.52% 2.70% Data: New York State Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance Compiled by: Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 28 3/23/2010 Total Temporary Assistance - Recipients Quarterly Sum Counties 2009.Q4 2009.Q3 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 Columbia 2,435 2,325 2,416 2,174 2,008 2,046 Dutchess 8,482 7,891 7,498 7,225 6,829 6,770 Greene 2,928 2,825 2,673 2,668 2,445 2,376 Orange 19,167 18,358 16,995 15,662 14,897 14,880 Putnam 347 361 336 305 311 382 Rockland 8,375 8,035 7,568 7,330 7,028 7,118 Sullivan 5,636 5,395 5,517 5,074 4,796 4,265 Ulster 8,594 8,175 7,921 7,527 7,000 6,708 Westchester 42,613 41,275 40,157 39,056 39,079 39,214 Hudson Valley 98,577 94,640 91,081 87,021 84,383 83,759 New York City 1,062,393 1,034,252 1,026,094 1,020,022 1,014,173 1,004,313 New York State 1,642,009 1,593,510 1,568,140 1,549,194 1,529,404 1,510,843 Quarterly Percentage Change Counties 2009.Q4 2009.Q3 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 Columbia 4.73% -3.77% 11.13% 8.27% -1.86% 0.15% Dutchess 7.49% 5.24% 3.78% 5.80% 0.87% 4.36% Greene 3.65% 5.69% 0.19% 9.12% 2.90% -1.21% Orange 4.41% 8.02% 8.51% 5.14% 0.11% 1.63% Putnam -3.88% 7.44% 10.16% -1.93% -18.59% -5.91% Rockland 4.23% 6.17% 3.25% 4.30% -1.26% -0.14% Sullivan 4.47% -2.21% 8.73% 5.80% 12.45% -6.12% Ulster 5.13% 3.21% 5.23% 7.53% 4.35% -0.58% Westchester 3.24% 2.78% 2.82% -0.06% -0.34% 2.63% Hudson Valley 4.16% 3.91% 4.67% 3.13% 0.74% 1.39% New York City 2.72% 0.80% 0.60% 0.58% 0.98% -2.34% New York State 3.04% 1.62% 1.22% 1.29% 1.23% -1.69% Source: New York State Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance 29 Compiled by: Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 3/23/2010 Total Temporary Assistance - Expenditures Quarterly Sum Counties 2009.Q4 2009.Q3 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 Columbia $852,800 $877,936 $1,066,512 $751,808 $694,280 $688,847 Dutchess $3,397,543 $3,031,709 $3,317,787 $3,107,559 $2,556,517 $3,188,681 Greene $896,746 $834,365 $818,603 $746,125 $707,885 $642,600 Orange $8,480,092 $7,333,215 $6,915,306 $5,871,352 $5,479,423 $6,032,523 Putnam $162,556 $172,888 $180,198 $160,688 $163,788 $215,059 Rockland $2,679,512 $2,519,836 $2,390,311 $2,323,940 $2,288,118 $2,205,955 Sullivan $1,923,560 $1,867,267 $2,037,339 $1,779,288 $1,646,291 $1,585,280 Ulster $3,349,548 $3,003,171 $3,073,806 $2,897,405 $2,564,326 $2,616,009 Westchester $20,865,059 $19,769,938 $21,008,628 $19,232,247 $19,485,635 $22,656,846 Hudson Valley $42,607,416 $39,410,325 $40,808,490 $36,870,412 $35,586,263 $39,815,219 New York City $340,813,174 $332,184,941 $318,944,634 $318,464,000 $319,621,000 $321,691,000 New York State $521,026,026 $503,887,382 $489,195,147 $481,968,735 $476,556,196 $479,939,099 Quarterly Percentage Change Counties 2009.Q4 2009.Q3 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 Columbia -2.86% -17.68% 41.86% 8.29% 0.79% -3.86% Dutchess 12.07% -8.62% 6.77% 21.55% -19.83% 11.41% Greene 7.48% 1.93% 9.71% 5.40% 10.16% -7.11% Orange 15.64% 6.04% 17.78% 7.15% -9.17% -7.24% Putnam -5.98% -4.06% 12.14% -1.89% -23.84% 9.67% Rockland 6.34% 5.42% 2.86% 1.57% 3.72% -1.90% Sullivan 3.01% -8.35% 14.50% 8.08% 3.85% -5.57% Ulster 11.53% -2.30% 6.09% 12.99% -1.98% -0.71% Westchester 5.54% -5.90% 9.24% -1.30% -14.00% 10.83% Hudson Valley 8.11% -3.43% 10.68% 3.61% -10.62% 4.80% New York City 2.60% 4.15% 0.15% -0.36% -0.64% -6.22% New York State 3.40% 3.00% 1.50% 1.14% -0.70% -4.98% Source: New York State Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance 30 Compiled by: Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 3/23/2010 Family Assistance - Recipients Quarterly Sum Counties 2009.Q4 2009.Q3 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 Columbia 1,348 1,324 1,350 1,267 1,221 1,236 Dutchess 4,957 4,638 4,497 4,364 4,178 3,989 Greene 1,569 1,576 1,444 1,526 1,430 1,333 Orange 10,774 10,104 9,460 9,070 8,788 8,622 Putnam 201 193 160 171 171 221 Rockland 4,367 4,177 3,810 3,698 3,508 3,461 Sullivan 3,283 3,155 3,204 2,992 2,914 2,631 Ulster 4,658 4,453 4,392 4,260 4,225 3,960 Westchester 21,132 20,228 19,506 19,104 19,451 19,599 Hudson Valley 52,289 49,848 47,823 46,452 45,886 45,052 New York City 470,671 460,074 449,710 448,776 450,955 445,373 New York State 777,057 755,519 735,495 730,197 729,423 718,841 Quarterly Percentage Change Counties 2009.Q4 2009.Q3 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 Columbia 1.81% -1.93% 6.55% 3.77% -1.21% -5.21% Dutchess 6.88% 3.14% 3.05% 4.45% 4.74% 6.01% Greene -0.44% 9.14% -5.37% 6.71% 7.28% 0.68% Orange 6.63% 6.81% 4.30% 3.21% 1.93% 1.87% Putnam 4.15% 20.63% -6.43% 0.00% -22.62% -16.29% Rockland 4.55% 9.63% 3.03% 5.42% 1.36% 0.73% Sullivan 4.06% -1.53% 7.09% 2.68% 10.76% -1.50% Ulster 4.60% 1.39% 3.10% 0.83% 6.69% 4.32% Westchester 4.47% 3.70% 2.10% -1.78% -0.76% 4.31% Hudson Valley 4.90% 4.23% 2.95% 1.23% 1.85% 2.83% New York City 2.30% 2.30% 0.21% -0.48% 1.25% -1.66% New York State 2.85% 2.72% 0.73% 0.11% 1.47% -0.88% Source: New York State Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance 31 Compiled by: Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 3/23/2010 Family Assistance - Expenditures Quarterly Sum Counties 2009.Q4 2009.Q3 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 Columbia $332,403 $335,825 $359,178 $298,094 $309,958 $291,318 Dutchess $1,636,533 $1,517,735 $1,483,354 $1,439,933 $1,313,271 $1,636,953 Greene $398,277 $379,110 $366,091 $355,106 $327,733 $304,973 Orange $4,278,624 $3,463,371 $3,118,844 $2,854,590 $2,873,983 $3,184,231 Putnam $82,967 $65,132 $57,479 $76,098 $70,660 $94,256 $1,341,949 $1,193,050 $1,143,975 $1,112,030 $1,080,235 $1,049,859 $873,286 $851,201 $960,590 $852,837 $772,764 $777,714 Ulster $1,433,038 $1,359,522 $1,315,578 $1,315,118 $1,312,548 $1,328,831 Westchester $8,873,210 $8,550,442 $8,819,349 $7,584,375 $8,348,293 $9,784,423 Hudson Valley $19,250,287 $17,715,388 $17,624,438 $15,888,181 $16,409,445 $18,452,558 New York City $133,077,710 $130,692,339 $123,859,993 $125,324,000 $126,691,000 $128,455,000 New York State $218,091,885 $210,956,348 $202,425,564 $201,156,115 $202,204,392 $204,732,957 Rockland Sullivan Quarterly Percentage Change Counties 2009.Q4 2009.Q3 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 Columbia -1.02% -6.50% 20.49% -3.83% 6.40% -21.29% Dutchess 7.83% 2.32% 3.02% 9.64% -19.77% 9.53% Greene 5.06% 3.56% 3.09% 8.35% 7.46% -3.39% Orange 23.54% 11.05% 9.26% -0.67% -9.74% -7.05% Putnam 27.38% 13.31% -24.47% 7.70% -25.03% -16.40% Rockland 12.48% 4.29% 2.87% 2.94% 2.89% -4.17% Sullivan 2.59% -11.39% 12.63% 10.36% -0.64% 0.42% Ulster 5.41% 3.34% 0.03% 0.20% -1.23% 8.47% Westchester 3.77% -3.05% 16.28% -9.15% -14.68% 13.50% Hudson Valley 8.66% 0.52% 10.93% -3.18% -11.07% 5.84% New York City 1.83% 5.52% -1.17% -1.08% -1.37% -13.38% New York State 3.38% 4.21% 0.63% -0.52% -1.24% -9.51% Source: New York State Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance 32 Compiled by: Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 3/23/2010 Safety Net Assistance - Recipients Quarterly Sum Counties 2009.Q4 2009.Q3 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 Columbia 1,087 1,001 1,066 907 787 810 Dutchess 3,525 3,253 3,001 2,861 2,651 2,781 Greene 1,359 1,249 1,229 1,142 1,015 1,043 Orange 8,393 8,254 7,535 6,592 6,109 6,258 Putnam 146 168 176 134 140 161 Rockland 4,008 3,858 3,758 3,632 3,520 3,657 Sullivan 2,353 2,240 2,313 2,082 1,882 1,634 Ulster 3,936 3,722 3,529 3,267 2,775 2,748 Westchester 21,481 21,047 20,651 19,952 19,628 19,615 Hudson Valley 46,288 44,792 43,258 40,569 38,497 38,707 New York City 591,722 574,178 576,384 571,246 563,218 558,940 New York State 864,952 837,991 832,645 818,997 799,981 792,002 Quarterly Percentage Change Counties 2009.Q4 2009.Q3 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 Columbia 8.59% -6.10% 17.53% 15.25% -2.84% 9.61% Dutchess 8.36% 8.40% 4.89% 7.92% -4.67% 2.09% Greene 8.81% 1.63% 7.62% 12.51% -2.68% -3.52% Orange 1.68% 9.54% 14.31% 7.91% -2.38% 1.31% Putnam -13.10% -4.55% 31.34% -4.29% -13.04% 13.38% Rockland 3.89% 2.66% 3.47% 3.18% -3.75% -0.95% Sullivan 5.04% -3.16% 11.10% 10.63% 15.18% -12.71% Ulster 5.75% 5.47% 8.02% 17.73% 0.98% -6.88% Westchester 2.06% 1.92% 3.50% 1.65% 0.07% 1.01% Hudson Valley 3.34% 3.55% 6.63% 5.38% -0.54% -0.23% New York City 3.06% -0.38% 0.90% 1.43% 0.77% -2.87% New York State 3.22% 0.64% 1.67% 2.38% 1.01% -2.42% Source: New York State Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance 33 Compiled by: Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 3/23/2010 Safety Net Assistance - Expenditures Quarterly Sum Counties 2009.Q4 2009.Q3 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 Columbia $520,397 $542,111 $707,334 $453,714 $384,322 $397,529 Dutchess $1,761,010 $1,513,974 $1,834,433 $1,667,626 $1,243,246 $1,551,728 Greene $498,469 $455,255 $452,512 $391,019 $380,152 $337,627 Orange $4,201,468 $3,869,844 $3,796,462 $3,016,762 $2,605,440 $2,848,292 Putnam $79,589 $107,756 $122,719 $84,590 $93,128 $120,803 Rockland $1,337,563 $1,326,786 $1,246,336 $1,211,910 $1,207,883 $1,156,096 Sullivan $1,050,274 $1,016,066 $1,076,749 $926,451 $873,527 $807,566 Ulster $1,916,510 $1,643,649 $1,758,228 $1,582,287 $1,251,778 $1,287,178 Westchester $11,991,849 $11,219,496 $12,189,279 $11,647,872 $11,137,342 $12,872,423 Hudson Valley $23,357,129 $21,694,937 $23,184,052 $20,982,231 $19,176,818 $21,362,661 New York City $207,735,464 $201,492,602 $195,084,641 $193,140,000 $192,930,000 $193,236,000 New York State $302,934,141 $292,931,034 $286,769,583 $280,812,620 $274,351,804 $275,206,142 Quarterly Percentage Change Counties 2009.Q4 2009.Q3 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 Columbia -4.01% -23.36% 55.90% 18.06% -3.32% -44.52% Dutchess 16.32% -17.47% 10.00% 34.13% -19.88% -45.78% Greene 9.49% 0.61% 15.73% 2.86% 12.60% -51.20% Orange 8.57% 1.93% 25.85% 15.79% -8.53% -7.44% Putnam -26.14% -12.19% 45.08% -9.17% -22.91% 44.93% Rockland 0.81% 6.45% 2.84% 0.33% 4.48% 0.25% Sullivan 3.37% -5.64% 16.22% 6.06% 8.17% -10.69% Ulster 16.60% -6.52% 11.12% 26.40% -2.75% -8.69% Westchester 6.88% -7.96% 4.65% 4.58% -13.48% 8.89% Hudson Valley 7.66% -6.42% 10.49% 9.41% -10.23% 3.92% New York City 3.10% 3.28% 1.01% 0.11% -0.16% -0.77% New York State 3.41% 2.15% 2.12% 2.35% -0.31% -1.29% Source: New York State Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance 34 Compiled by: Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 3/23/2010 Supplemental Social Security Income - Recipients Quarterly Sum Counties 2009.Q4 2009.Q3 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 Columbia 4,658 4,636 4,634 4,622 4,542 4,505 Dutchess 14,667 14,470 14,535 14,342 14,114 14,065 Greene 3,858 3,850 3,812 3,865 3,785 3,780 Orange 19,439 19,164 19,269 19,204 19,072 19,028 Putnam 2,465 2,420 2474 2,481 2,501 2,515 14,585 14,288 14,249 14,098 13,984 13,878 7,539 7,461 7,455 7,501 7,538 7,589 Ulster 12,403 12,222 12,265 12,230 12,223 12,176 Westchester 50,435 49,875 49,955 49,932 49,771 49,305 Hudson Valley 130,049 128,386 128,648 128,275 127,530 126,841 New York City 1,250,696 1,240,307 1,241,266 1,237,347 1,233,303 1,230,506 New York State 2,014,473 1,995,892 1,997,781 1,989,688 1,980,605 1,973,034 Rockland Sullivan Quarterly Percentage Change Counties 2009.Q4 2009.Q3 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 Columbia 0.47% 0.04% 0.26% 1.76% 0.82% -0.55% Dutchess 1.36% -0.45% 1.35% 1.62% 0.35% 0.24% Greene 0.21% 1.00% -1.37% 2.11% 0.13% 1.72% Orange 1.43% -0.54% 0.34% 0.69% 0.23% 1.57% Putnam 1.86% -2.18% -0.28% -0.80% -0.56% 1.49% Rockland 2.08% 0.27% 1.07% 0.82% 0.76% 0.96% Sullivan 1.05% 0.08% -0.61% -0.49% -0.67% 0.04% Ulster 1.48% -0.35% 0.29% 0.06% 0.39% 0.82% Westchester 1.12% -0.16% 0.05% 0.32% 0.95% 1.20% Hudson Valley 1.30% -0.20% 0.29% 0.58% 0.54% 0.97% New York City 0.84% -0.08% 0.32% 0.33% 0.23% 0.29% New York State 0.93% -0.09% 0.41% 0.46% 0.38% 0.49% Source: New York State Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance 35 Compiled by: Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 3/23/2010 Supplemental Social Security Income - Expenditures Quarterly Sum Counties 2009.Q4 Columbia $2,509,623 $2,470,444 $2,669,310 $2,572,487 $2,328,020 $2,290,678 Dutchess $8,399,010 $7,947,294 $8,030,618 $7,897,648 $7,428,628 $7,439,100 Greene $2,028,453 $1,983,787 $2,048,672 $2,098,027 $1,902,512 $1,895,570 Orange $10,455,586 $10,166,183 $10,262,695 $10,015,872 $9,548,400 $9,594,935 Putnam $1,282,337 $1,248,034 $1,244,841 $1,219,886 $1,169,076 $1,220,226 Rockland $8,030,703 $7,767,091 $7,809,171 $7,671,728 $7,146,429 $7,065,438 Sullivan $3,868,949 $3,843,847 $3,963,265 $4,030,900 $3,771,364 $3,877,934 Ulster $7,058,383 $6,733,700 $6,681,324 $6,488,834 $6,361,302 $6,474,854 Westchester $26,581,784 $26,246,671 $26,487,532 $26,054,838 $24,821,820 $24,692,702 Hudson Valley $70,214,828 $68,407,051 $69,197,428 $68,050,220 $64,477,551 $64,551,437 New York City $718,282,013 $707,822,956 $711,953,664 $706,146,341 $669,798,875 $668,872,130 New York State 2009.Q3 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 $1,140,439,540 $1,121,286,497 $1,132,039,544 $1,117,871,233 $1,060,836,991 $1,054,800,494 Quarterly Percentage Change Counties 2009.Q3 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 Columbia 1.59% -7.45% 3.76% 10.50% 1.63% -3.42% Dutchess 5.68% -1.04% 1.68% 6.31% -0.14% 0.02% Greene 2.25% -3.17% -2.35% 10.28% 0.37% 0.74% Orange 2.85% -0.94% 2.46% 4.90% -0.48% 2.21% Putnam 2.75% 0.26% 2.05% 4.35% -4.19% 5.31% Rockland 3.39% -0.54% 1.79% 7.35% 1.15% -0.48% Sullivan 0.65% -3.01% -1.68% 6.88% -2.75% -2.82% Ulster 4.82% 0.78% 2.97% 2.00% -1.75% 1.58% Westchester 1.28% -0.91% 1.66% 4.97% 0.52% 0.00% Hudson Valley 2.64% -1.14% 1.69% 5.54% -0.11% 0.25% New York City 1.48% -0.58% 0.82% 5.43% 0.14% -0.80% New York State 1.71% -0.95% 1.27% 5.38% 0.57% -0.48% Source: New York State Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance 36 Compiled by: Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 3/23/2010 Home Energy Assistance - Recipients Quarterly Sum Counties 2009.Q4 2009.Q3 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 Columbia 7,144 12,542 12,341 10,262 6,203 9,180 Dutchess 22,820 31,645 30,675 25,139 17,925 22,816 Greene 9,233 16,129 15,675 12,866 7,922 13,569 Orange 33,010 54,403 49,270 35,439 25,928 40,172 Putnam 2,881 4,501 4,442 3,636 2,397 2,811 Rockland 25,073 34,824 32,970 24,733 20,215 22,618 Sullivan 14,678 26,375 25,898 21,513 12,209 23,048 Ulster 26,456 46,696 45,705 36,021 19,932 37,201 Westchester 67,867 57,393 57,194 54,858 51,950 31,884 Hudson Valley 209,162 284,508 274,170 224,467 164,681 203,299 New York City N/A 2,247,469 2,100,716 1,755,931 N/A N/A 2,048,265 4,574,270 4,337,061 3,486,510 1,685,783 3,351,421 New York State Quarterly Percent Change Counties 2009.Q4 2009.Q3 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 Columbia -43.04% 1.63% 20.26% 65.44% -32.43% 1.47% Dutchess -27.89% 3.16% 22.02% 40.25% -21.44% 3.52% Greene -42.76% 2.90% 21.83% 62.41% -41.62% 3.22% Orange -39.32% 10.42% 39.03% 36.68% -35.46% 16.16% Putnam -35.99% 1.33% 22.17% 51.69% -14.73% 4.81% Rockland -28.00% 5.62% 33.30% 22.35% -10.62% 14.26% Sullivan -44.35% 1.84% 20.38% 76.21% -47.03% 1.78% Ulster -43.34% 2.17% 26.88% 80.72% -46.42% 3.75% Westchester 18.25% 0.35% 4.26% 5.60% 62.93% 0.49% Hudson Valley -26.48% 3.77% 22.14% 36.30% -19.00% 6.15% New York City N/A 6.99% 19.64% N/A New York State -55.22% 5.47% 24.40% 106.82% Source: New York State Office and Temporary and Disability Assistance Compiled By: Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 37 2008.Q4 N/A -49.70% 2008.Q3 N/A 14.12% 3/23/2010 Home Energy Assistance - Expenditures Quarterly Sum Counties 2009.Q4 2009.Q3 2009.Q1 2009.Q2 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 Columbia $3,149,064 $7,613,514 $7,516,486 $6,342,775 $3,284,344 $4,118,425 Dutchess $6,653,813 $15,274,830 $14,657,751 $11,246,148 $5,945,563 $9,080,869 Greene $4,463,499 $10,427,824 $10,153,033 $8,343,041 $4,503,314 $6,166,849 Orange $10,078,840 $25,830,628 $23,214,455 $15,496,552 $8,680,208 $15,578,754 Putnam $1,097,894 $2,246,188 $2,209,950 $1,714,512 $825,856 $1,093,065 Rockland $5,512,584 $12,532,861 $11,601,832 $7,577,097 $4,849,789 $7,924,705 Sullivan $5,771,762 $15,896,003 $15,576,397 $12,735,011 $5,687,687 $10,781,025 Ulster $9,958,387 $27,145,269 $26,565,117 $20,702,508 $9,195,907 $16,260,314 Westchester $5,215,443 $7,541,437 $7,447,597 $6,150,398 $4,089,990 $3,939,795 Hudson Valley $51,901,286 $124,508,554 $118,942,618 $90,308,042 $47,062,658 $74,943,801 New York City N/A $136,159,117 $129,317,264 $94,567,871 N/A N/A $533,445,946 $1,262,768,525 $1,214,373,930 $934,642,342 $488,929,377 $837,127,452 New York State Quarterly Percent Change Counties 2009.Q4 2009.Q3 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 2008.Q3 Columbia -58.64% 1.29% 18.50% 93.12% -20.25% 2.08% Dutchess -56.44% 4.21% 30.34% 89.15% -34.53% 3.82% Greene -57.20% 2.71% 21.69% 85.26% -26.98% 3.51% Orange -60.98% 11.27% 49.80% 78.53% -44.28% 17.17% Putnam -51.12% 1.64% 28.90% 107.60% -24.45% 6.48% Rockland -56.01% 8.02% 53.12% 56.24% -38.80% 15.64% Sullivan -63.69% 2.05% 22.31% 123.90% -47.24% 2.11% Ulster -63.31% 2.18% 28.32% 125.13% -43.45% 4.21% Westchester -30.84% 1.26% 21.09% 50.38% 3.81% 2.59% Hudson Valley -58.32% 4.68% 31.71% 91.89% -37.20% 7.19% New York City N/A 5.29% 36.75% N/A N/A N/A New York State -57.76% 3.99% 29.93% 91.16% -41.59% 7.94% Source: New York State Office and Temporary and Disability Assistance Compiled By: Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 38 3/23/2010 Median Selling Price (in Dollars) 2008.Q3-2009.Q4 2009 County 4th Q 3rd Q 2008 2nd Q 1st Q % Change 4th '09 to 2nd '09 4th Q 3rd '09 to 1st '09 2nd '09 to 4th '08 Columbia $215,000 $190,950 $227,750 $190,000 $200,000 -5.60% 0.50% 13.88% Dutchess $269,900 $280,000 $269,950 $280,000 $285,000 -0.02% 0.00% -5.28% Greene $174,000 $165,000 $165,000 $156,000 $179,000 5.45% 5.77% -7.82% Orange $255,500 $260,000 $270,000 $260,450 $270,000 -5.37% -0.17% 0.00% Putnam $330,000 $330,000 $324,450 $342,450 $350,000 1.71% -3.64% -7.30% Rockland $415,000 $431,600 $420,000 $407,500 $432,500 -1.19% 5.91% -2.89% Sullivan $125,080 $123,500 $138,000 $119,000 $146,500 -9.36% 3.78% -5.80% Ulster $215,644 $203,750 $209,000 $190,560 $220,000 3.18% 6.92% -5.00% Westchester $560,000 $630,000 $565,000 $534,000 $569,000 -0.88% 17.98% -0.70% Hudson Valley* $284,458 $290,533 $269,950 $260,450 $294,667 5.37% 11.55% -8.39% New York State $210,000 $205,000 $185,500 $199,000 $210,000 13.21% 3.02% -11.67% U.S.** $169,600 $176,000 $182,000 $169,900 $175,700 3.59% 3.59% * Estimate ** Medians of Last Month of Quarter Median Selling Prices: Existing Single Family Homes $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 Columbia Dutchess Greene Orange 4th Q 3rd Q Putnam 2nd Q Source: NYSAR, (**NAR) Compiled by the Marist College Bureau of Economic Research, School of Management, Marist College 1st Q Rockland Sullivan Ulster Westchester 4th Q 3/28/2010 39 Sales: Existing Single Family Homes 2008.Q4-2009.Q4 2009 County 4th Q 2008 3rd Q 2nd Q 1st Q % Change 4th '09 to 2nd '09 4th Q 3rd '09 to 1st '09 2nd '09 to 4th '08 Columbia 135 100 75 49 71 80.00% 104.08% 5.63% Dutchess 701 723 516 374 492 35.85% 93.32% 4.88% Greene 103 99 69 46 55 49.28% 115.22% 25.45% Orange 635 619 429 310 434 48.02% 99.68% -1.15% Putnam 169 159 131 88 147 29.01% 80.68% -10.88% Rockland 371 376 233 189 287 59.23% 98.94% -18.82% 75 78 65 46 96 15.38% 69.57% -32.29% 336 298 224 134 242 50.00% 122.39% -7.44% Westchester 1022 1190 709 425 753 44.15% 180.00% -5.84% Hudson Valley Total 3,547 3,642 2,451 1,661 2,577 44.72% 119.27% -4.89% Sullivan Ulster New York State **U.S. 22,626 24,103 18,141 11,672 18,518 24.72% 106.50% -2.04% 5,233,333 4,646,667 4,756,667 4,583,333 4,740,000 10.02% 1.38% 0.35% Sales: Existing Single Family Homes 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Columbia Dutchess Greene Orange 4th Q Putnam 3rd Q Source: NYSAR, (**NAR) Compiled by the Marist College Bureau of Economic Research, School of Management, Marist College 2nd Q 40 Rockland 1st Q Sullivan Ulster Westchester 4th Q 3/23/2010 Monthly Construction Permits Single Family Homes 2009 Counties December November October September August July 09.Q2 Total 09.Q1 Columbia 0 1 2 2 1 1 1 19 27 Dutchess 8 9 9 15 5 7 28 17 98 Greene 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Orange 26 23 41 24 14 28 72 43 271 Putnam 2 4 3 5 6 1 7 7 35 Rockland 3 2 5 21 6 5 21 24 87 Sullivan 9 9 16 9 10 6 30 23 112 Ulster 5 7 12 10 7 7 27 12 87 Westchester 17 18 17 20 11 23 49 35 190 Hudson Valley 70 73 105 106 60 34.2 31.4 37.9 40 42.2 United States (000's) 78 235 46.1 122.3 180 907 80 434 Monthly Construction Permits Non-single Family Construction (# of buildings) 2009 Counties December November October September August July 09.Q2 Total 09.Q1 Columbia 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Dutchess 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Greene 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Orange 5 3 1 3 2 1 7 4 26 Putnam 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rockland 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 2 6 Sullivan 1 2 1 1 0 0 1 4 10 Ulster 1 6 0 3 0 0 0 2 12 Westchester 1 4 0 0 0 0 4 0 9 Hudson Valley 8 16 2 9 2 2 12 12 63 United States (000's) 13.2 9.4 8.7 11.3 10.2 8.6 31.9 38.3 132 Hudson Valley (All) 78 89 80 247 192 485 107 115 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Compiled by: Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 62 3/27/2010 41 Dollar Cost of Construction Single Family Homes 2009 Counties Columbia December November October September August July 09.Q2 Total 09.Q1 $0 $682,040 $812,040 $1,364,079 $682,040 $46,667 $46,667 $2,340,000 $5,973,533 $2,989,074 $1,567,452 $2,123,525 $3,152,212 $887,167 $1,967,452 $5,084,880 $3,479,235 $21,250,997 Greene $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Orange $4,219,755 $5,565,602 $6,363,278 $4,045,210 $2,164,189 $4,701,098 $10,935,743 $7,991,470 $45,986,345 Putnam $374,000 $1,426,130 $791,400 $2,525,442 $1,216,400 $191,400 $1,551,364 $2,543,940 $10,620,076 Rockland $1,400,000 $366,667 $1,578,000 $6,280,000 $1,922,707 $1,506,286 $8,631,155 $5,596,274 $27,281,089 Sullivan $1,474,393 $1,393,393 $1,913,786 $1,333,688 $1,272,302 $1,117,228 $4,238,681 $2,229,739 $14,973,210 Ulster $1,408,617 $1,360,000 $2,212,833 $2,340,617 $1,688,317 $1,160,925 $3,778,924 $1,829,184 $15,779,417 Westchester $6,233,015 $11,701,759 $7,883,053 $9,883,564 $4,018,441 $10,483,170 $26,520,660 $17,010,425 $93,734,087 $18,098,854 $24,063,043 $23,677,915 $30,924,812 $13,851,563 $21,174,226 $60,788,074 $43,020,267 $235,598,754 $6,616.34 $6,108.77 $7,374.30 $7,774.5 $7,984.0 $8,594.6 $22,855.8 $14,785 $82,093.3 Dutchess Hudson Valley United States (millions) Dollar Cost of Construction Non-single Family Construction (# of buildings) 2009 Counties December November October September August July 09.Q2 Total 09.Q1 Columbia $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Dutchess $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Greene $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Orange $2,118,504 $886,267 $531,059 $1,124,989 $801,179 $531,059 $3,396,302 $1,805,227 $11,194,586 Putnam $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Rockland $0 $553,056 $0 $540,000 $0 $240,000 $0 $1,198,394 $2,531,450 $86,110 $172,220 $86,110 $86,110 $0 $0 $86,110 $244,696 $761,356 Ulster $100,000 $300,000 $0 $1,494,180 $0 $0 $0 $260,000 $2,154,180 Westchester $250,000 $20,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $23,578,550 $0 $43,828,550 $2,554,614 $21,911,543 $617,169 $3,245,279 $801,179 $771,059 $27,060,962 $3,508,317 $60,470,122 $1,156.7 $840.4 $773.8 $1,075.7 $837.4 $749.2 $2,725.0 $3,431.0 $11,589.2 Sullivan Hudson Valley United States (millions) Hudson Valley (All) 20,653,468 45,974,586 24,295,084 34,170,091 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Compiled by: Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 14,652,742 21,945,285 87,849,036 46,528,594 148,034,438 3/27/2010 42 Monthly Average Cost of Construction per Permit Single Family Homes 2009 Counties Columbia December November October September August July 09.Q2 Monthly Average 09.Q1 $0 $682,040 $406,020 $682,040 $682,040 $46,667 $46,667 $123,158 $221,242 $373,634 $174,161 $235,947 $210,147 $177,433 $281,065 $181,603 $204,661 $216,847 Greene $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Orange $162,298 $241,983 $155,202 $168,550 $154,585 $167,896 $151,885 $185,848 $169,691 Putnam $187,000 $356,533 $263,800 $505,088 $202,733 $191,400 $221,623 $363,420 $303,431 Rockland $466,667 $183,334 $315,600 $299,048 $320,451 $301,257 $411,007 $233,178 $313,576 Sullivan $163,821 $154,821 $119,612 $148,188 $127,230 $186,205 $141,289 $96,945 $133,689 Ulster $281,723 $194,286 $184,403 $234,062 $241,188 $165,846 $139,960 $152,432 $181,373 Westchester $366,648 $650,098 $463,709 $494,178 $365,313 $455,790 $541,238 $486,012 $493,337 Hudson Valley $258,555 $329,631 $225,504 $291,744 $230,859 $271,464 $258,673 $239,001 $258,348 United States $193,460 $194,547 $194,573 $194,363 $189,194 $186,434 $186,883 $184,813 $188,337 Dutchess Monthly Average Cost of Construction per Permit Non-single Family Construction (# of buildings) 2009 Counties December November October September August July 09.Q2 Monthly Average 09.Q1 Columbia $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Dutchess $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Greene $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Orange $423,701 $295,422 $531,059 $374,996 $400,590 $531,059 $485,186 $451,307 $430,561 Putnam $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 Rockland $0 $553,056 $0 $270,000 $0 $240,000 $0 $599,197 $421,908 $86,110 $86,110 $86,110 $86,110 $0 $0 $86,110 $61,174 $76,136 Ulster $100,000 $50,000 $0 $498,060 $0 $0 $0 $130,000 $179,515 Westchester $250,000 $5,000,000 $0 $0 $0 $0 $5,894,638 $0 $4,869,839 Hudson Valley $319,327 $1,369,471 $308,585 $360,587 $400,590 $385,530 $2,255,080 $292,360 $738,829 United States $87,629 $89,404 $88,943 $95,195 $82,098 $87,116 $85,423 $89,582 $87,883 $577,882 $1,699,102 $534,088 Sullivan Hudson Valley (All) 652,330 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Compiled by: Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 631,449 656,994 2,513,753 3,669,005 $498,589 3/27/2010 43 The Rate of Inflation Year-to-Year Percent Change in CPI-U 2003 to Dec 2009 Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) NY, NY -Northeastern NJ 2009 2008 2007 2006 2004 2005 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Average 2003 1.52% 1.59% 0.84% 0.76% -0.10% -0.60% -1.12% -0.96% -0.62% 0.00% 1.82% 2.33% 3.67% 3.56% 3.81% 3.55% 3.99% 4.53% 5.11% 5.38% 5.16% 4.29% 2.18% 1.57% 2.72% 3.08% 2.91% 2.53% 2.50% 2.54% 2.48% 1.89% 2.43% 3.11% 3.89% 3.66% 3.75% 3.59% 2.73% 3.62% 4.82% 5.65% 4.99% 4.67% 3.29% 2.35% 2.60% 3.31% 4.10% 3.88% 4.42% 4.17% 3.42% 2.28% 3.41% 4.08% 4.81% 4.49% 3.91% 3.58% 2.67% 2.50% 3.20% 3.71% 3.86% 4.62% 3.95% 3.31% 3.16% 3.65% 3.91% 3.76% 3.29% 3.32% 3.14% 2.55% 2.82% 2.82% 2.97% 3.11% 3.26% 3.25% 3.10% 3.21% 0.46% 3.90% 2.81% 3.78% 3.88% 3.53% 3.07% Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) US City Average 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 0.02% 0.23% -0.37% -0.73% -1.27% -1.42% -2.09% -1.51% -1.28% -0.18% 1.85% 2.74% 4.29% 4.03% 3.97% 3.93% 4.16% 5.01% 5.62% 5.38% 4.95% 3.69% 1.06% 0.10% 2.08% 2.42% 2.78% 2.57% 2.69% 2.69% 2.36% 1.97% 2.76% 3.52% 4.31% 4.06% 4.10% 3.88% 4.42% 4.17% 3.42% 2.28% 3.41% 4.08% 4.81% 4.49% 3.91% 3.58% 2.97% 3.01% 3.15% 3.51% 2.80% 2.53% 3.17% 3.64% 4.69% 4.35% 3.46% 3.42% 1.93% 1.69% 1.74% 2.29% 3.05% 3.27% 2.99% 2.65% 2.54% 3.19% 3.52% 3.26% 2.60% 2.98% 3.02% 2.22% 2.06% 2.11% 2.11% 2.16% 2.32% 2.04% 1.77% 1.88% Average -0.33% 3.85% 2.85% 3.88% 3.39% 2.68% 2.27% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Compiled by the Marist College Bureau of Economic Research, Marist College 44 3/27/2010 Total Sales Tax Collection 2008.Q3 - 2009.Q4 County 2009.Q4 2009.Q3 2009.Q2 2009.Q1 2008.Q4 Columbia $6,907,394 $7,687,494 $7,989,991 $7,008,124 $6,879,993 Dutchess $35,823,532 $35,797,119 $33,956,512 $34,133,431 $37,116,801 Greene $5,856,613 $6,544,794 $6,241,669 $6,378,693 $6,199,443 Orange $53,678,120 $54,232,791 $53,551,603 $52,442,111 $53,364,174 Putnam $11,704,923 $12,086,192 $11,371,196 $10,740,232 $11,981,110 Rockland $40,009,770 $41,670,303 $41,378,574 $41,073,424 $40,678,402 Sullivan $7,288,227 $9,629,777 $8,918,534 $7,587,668 $8,226,786 $22,502,569 $24,427,327 $22,174,842 $22,305,160 $23,594,487 $104,366,233 $104,774,825 $101,254,065 $104,718,131 $108,470,561 288,137,381 $296,850,622 $286,836,987 $286,386,974 Ulster Westchester Hudson Valley $ $296,511,758 Quarterly Percentage Change County 2009.Q4-2009.Q3 2009.Q3-2009.Q2 2009.Q2-2009.Q1 2009.Q1-2008.Q4 2008.Q4-2008.Q3 Columbia -10.15% -3.79% 14.01% 1.86% -22.18% Dutchess 0.07% 5.42% -0.52% -8.04% -10.74% Greene -10.51% 4.86% -2.15% 2.89% -21.18% Orange -1.02% 1.27% 2.12% -1.73% -10.73% Putnam -3.15% 6.29% 5.87% -10.36% -12.57% Rockland -3.98% 0.71% 0.74% 0.97% -8.53% Sullivan -24.32% 7.97% 17.54% -7.77% -26.88% Ulster -7.88% 10.16% -0.58% -5.46% -12.64% Westchester -0.39% 3.48% -3.31% -3.46% -8.83% Hudson Valley -2.94% 3.49% 0.16% -3.41% -11.09% 45 3/28/2010 Percentage Change in Sales Tax Collection between 4th and 3rd Qt. 2009 Columbia -10.15% 0.07% Dutchess Greene -10.51% Orange -1.02% Putnam -3.15% Rockland -3.98% Sullivan -24.32% Ulster -7.88% Westchester -0.39% Hudson Valley -2.94% -28.0% -23.0% -18.0% -13.0% -8.0% -3.0% 2.0% Percentage Change in Sales Tax Collection Year-Over-Year 0.40% Columbia Dutchess -3.48% Greene -5.53% 0.59% Orange Putnam -2.31% Rockland -1.64% Sullivan -11.41% Ulster -4.63% Westchester -3.78% Hudson Valley -2.82% -14.0% -12.0% -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% 46 -2.0% 0.0% 2.0%