Special Report:Employment In The Hudson Valley 2013 With A Preliminary Examination Through 2014.Q3 MARIST COLLEGE Dr. Christy Huebner Caridi Marist Bureau of Economic Research School of Management Poughkeepsie, New York 12601 Edited by Polly Sparling June 2015 This report is available on the Bureau of Economic Research homepage at http://www.marist.edu/management/bureau The support of student research assistants Kristen Sandberg and Kristen Lawler is acknowledged and appreciated. While every effort has been made to ensure that the information in this report is accurate, Marist College cannot be held responsible for any remaining errors. The Hudson Valley 2013 With A Preliminary Examination Through 2014.Q3 In the 10-year period from 2004 to 2013, private-sector jobs in the Hudson Valley region increased slightly, rising at an annual rate of 0.12 percent. Of these jobs, those paying above-average wages declined nearly 1.5 percent, while those that pay below-average wages increased 0.91 percent. This shift in the private sector jobcount from high- to low-wage jobs is consistent with state and national trends. During the same period, public-sector jobs declined, especially after the Great Recession of 2008; as of 2013, there were five private-sector jobs in the region for every one in the public sector. Public-sector wages, however, saw an increase in relation to the private sector. The ratio of average private-sector wages was 92 cents for every dollar of public-sector wages in 2004; that ratio fell to 82 cents per dollar by 2013, reflecting the systematic wage increases common in the public sector. From the third quarter of 2009 through the third quarter of 2014, a number of industries in the region experienced significant job-count gains, including health care, retail trade, and tourism-related fields (such as food services and accommodations). In most of the seven counties, construction and manufacturing saw the smallest job-count increases over the same time period. TABLE OF CONTENTS HUDSON VALLEY 2-17 DUCTHESS COUNTY 18-26 ORANGE COUNTY 27-35 PUTNAM COUNTY 36-43 ROCKLAND COUNTY 44-52 ULSTER COUNTY 53-61 WESTCHESTER COUNTY 62-70 Hudson Valley Job-Count CAGR Data Source: NYS Department of Labor, Author Calculations 0.91% 0.91% 1.04% 0.70% 0.85% 0.12% -0.28% -1.44% 2004-2013 -2.49% 2007-2013 2004-2007 Total Private Above Average Wages Below Average Wage Over the period, total private-sector jobs grew at an annual rate of 0.12 percent; the job-count in the high-wage sectors fell 1.44 percent per annum, while low-wages jobs grew 0.91 percent. Negative growth occurred in each of the nine high-wage sectors and five of the 11 low-wage sectors. The net result was a 4.70 percent shift away from high-wage toward low-wage jobs. This outcome is consistent with both the national and state trend. Hudson Valley: CAGR by Sector Ranked from Highest Average Wage to Lowest Average Wage. Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations CAGR Job-Count Management of Companies and Enterprises Finance and Insurance Utilities Manufacturing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Information Wholesale Trade Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Construction Above Average Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Health Care and Social Assistance Transportation and Warehousing Educational Services Administrative and Support and Waste Management Unclassified Retail Trade Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Other Services (except Public Administration) Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Accommodation and Food Services Below Average Average Wages 2013 $165,949 $117,604 $117,813 $81,479 $97,113 $72,356 $72,399 $67,360 $60,536 $89,101 $53,098 $48,586 $44,499 $42,516 $38,932 $34,934 $29,518 $29,903 $31,774 $29,575 $23,330 $37,455 2004-2007 2007-2013 2004-2013 3.99% 1.84% -0.46% -1.73% 1.08% -3.24% 0.39% -0.90% 4.09% 0.70% 0.44% 1.80% 1.19% 2.43% -0.11% -6.66% 0.87% -1.08% 1.35% 1.06% 0.75% 1.04% -0.56% -2.59% -1.19% -3.68% 0.08% -3.81% -1.94% -6.96% -3.85% -2.49% -0.78% 1.26% -0.73% 1.42% 0.92% -2.69% 0.10% 0.97% 0.20% 0.23% 2.66% 0.85% -5.12% -7.02% -1.93% -5.63% -0.91% -4.38% -4.28% -13.02% -11.80% -5.68% -2.00% 0.73% -2.65% 0.41% 1.95% 1.28% -0.67% 3.02% -0.96% -0.61% 4.56% 0.66% 2 Hudson Valley Average Private-Sector Employment Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Above-Average Wages Job-Count and Average Wages Total Private Below-Average Wages Job-Count and Average Wages % Above Average % Below Average Ratio Low- to HighWage JobCount Ratio Average Wages: Low per dollar of High 2004 716,584 257,272 $69,391 459,312 $30,017 35.9% 64.1% 1.79 0.43 2005 722,241 259,637 $71,128 462,604 $31,508 35.9% 64.1% 1.78 0.44 2006 727,040 260,616 $75,196 466,427 $32,556 35.8% 64.2% 1.79 0.43 2007 736,434 262,711 $80,132 473,725 $33,766 35.7% 64.3% 1.80 0.42 2008 730,559 255,724 $81,437 474,837 $34,608 35.0% 65.0% 1.86 0.42 2009 699,586 234,847 $80,323 464,740 $34,996 33.6% 66.4% 1.98 0.44 2010 697,726 226,268 $85,200 471,457 $35,701 32.4% 67.6% 2.08 0.42 2011 709,840 227,320 $86,873 482,519 $36,358 32.0% 68.0% 2.12 0.42 2012 716,416 225,736 $89,979 490,681 $37,058 31.5% 68.5% 2.17 0.41 2013 724,199 225,841 $89,101 498,359 $37,455 31.2% 68.8% 2.21 0.42 Hudson Valley Annual Average Job-Count Data Source: NYS Department of Labor 459,312 462,604 466,427 473,725 257,272 259,637 260,616 262,711 474,837 255,724 464,740 234,847 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Above Average Wages 2009 471,457 482,519 490,681 498,359 226,268 227,320 225,736 225,841 2010 2011 2012 2013 Below Average Wages 3 Hudson Valley Percent of Jobs Paying Average Wages Above and Below the Average Private-Sector Wage NYS Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations 64.1% 64.1% 64.2% 64.3% 65.0% 35.9% 35.9% 35.8% 35.7% 35.0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 66.4% 67.6% 68.0% 68.5% 68.8% 33.6% 32.4% 32.0% 31.5% 31.2% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 % Above Average % Below Average As of 2013, there were 2.21 low-wage jobs for every one high-wage job. On average, low-wage jobs paid $0.42 for each dollar paid in a high-wage job. Hudson Valley Annual Average Job-Count Low-Wage Jobs to High-Wage Jobs 2.08 2.12 2.17 2.21 2012 2013 1.98 1.79 1.78 1.79 1.80 2004 2005 2006 2007 1.86 2008 2009 2010 2011 Hudson Valley Average Low-Wage Wages Per One Dollar of Average High-Wage Wages $0.44 $0.44 $0.43 $0.43 $0.42 $0.42 $0.42 $0.42 $0.42 $0.41 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 4 Hudson Valley Average Private Sector Job-Count Sorted by Wages 2004-2007-2013 Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations 2004 Management of Companies and Enterprises Percent Total Private Sector Job-Count 2007 Percent Total Private Sector JobCount 2013 Percent Total Private Sector JobCount 11,927 1.66% 13,414 1.82% 12,967 1.79% 5,821 0.81% 5,741 0.78% 5,342 0.74% Finance and Insurance Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 32,410 4.52% 34,236 4.65% 29,254 4.04% 41,251 5.76% 42,596 5.78% 42,804 5.91% Manufacturing 61,814 8.63% 58,654 7.96% 46,827 6.47% Wholesale Trade 33,593 4.69% 33,987 4.62% 30,209 4.17% Information Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 23,593 3.29% 21,371 2.90% 16,925 2.34% 930 0.13% 905 0.12% 587 0.08% Construction 45,933 6.41% 51,807 7.03% 40,926 5.65% 257,272 35.90% 262,711 35.67% 225,841 31.18% Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 15,844 2.21% 16,052 2.18% 15,311 2.11% Health Care and Social Assistance 126,525 17.66% 133,482 18.13% 143,922 19.87% Transportation and Warehousing 22,928 3.20% 23,753 3.23% 22,730 3.14% Educational Services Administrative and Support and Waste Management 26,425 3.69% 28,396 3.86% 30,900 4.27% 40,748 5.69% 40,612 5.51% 42,901 5.92% 3,602 0.50% 2,929 0.40% 2,487 0.34% 36,511 5.10% 38,007 5.16% 38,454 5.31% 16,601 2.32% 16,071 2.18% 17,029 2.35% 3,166 0.44% 3,268 0.44% 3,313 0.46% 112,551 15.71% 115,512 15.69% 116,194 16.04% 54,411 7.59% 55,643 7.56% 65,118 8.99% 459,312 64.10% 473,725 64.33% 498,359 68.82% Utilities Above Average Unclassified Other Services (except Public Administration) Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services Below Average 5 Average Private Sector Job-Count: High-Wage and Low-Wage Sectors by Area 2004-2007-2013 Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations 2004 N % Private N 33,049 35.11% 61,084 64.89% 94,131 54,969 55.11% 44,778 44.89% 99,746 11,067 57.16% 8,144 42.06% High-Wage Low-Wage Total, All Private High-Wage Low-Wage Total, All Private High-Wage Low-Wage Dutchess County Orange County Putnam County Rockland County Sullivan County Ulster County Westchester County Hudson Valley Region Total, All Private High-Wage Low-Wage Total, All Private High-Wage Low-Wage Total, All Private High-Wage Low-Wage Total, All Private High-Wage Low-Wage Total, All Private High-Wage Low-Wage Total, All Private 19,363 34,735 56,271 91,006 7,620 11,814 19,434 26,114 21,253 47,367 105,207 240,330 345,537 257,272 459,312 716,584 38.17% 61.83% 39.21% 60.79% 55.13% 44.87% 30.45% 69.55% 35.90% 64.10% N 32,620 62,027 94,647 56,001 46,621 102,620 12,377 8,733 2007 % Private N 34.46% 65.54% 54.57% 45.43% 58.23% 41.09% 21,255 36,567 57,551 94,118 8,143 11,438 19,681 26,410 21,607 48,017 106,199 249,897 356,096 262,711 473,725 736,434 38.85% 61.15% 41.37% 58.12% 55.00% 45.00% 29.82% 70.18% 35.67% 64.33% N 26,087 63,705 89,792 56,020 50,858 106,876 11,323 8,764 2013 % Private N 29.05% 70.95% 52.42% 47.59% 55.91% 43.27% 20,253 31,630 64,425 96,055 8,049 10,741 18,888 23,250 20,949 44,199 92,809 255,330 348,136 225,841 498,359 724,199 32.93% 67.07% 42.61% 56.87% 52.60% 47.40% 26.66% 73.34% 31.18% 68.82% High-wage jobs as a percent of all private-sector jobs continue to decline. Dutchess reported the highest 10-year decline at 6.06 percent, followed by Rockland at 5.24 percent. In both cases, the primary cause was a reduction in manufacturing. High-Wage Jobs as a Percent of Total Private Sector Jobs Dutchess Orange Putnam Rockland Sullivan 2004 35.11% 55.11% 57.16% 38.17% 39.21% 2007 34.46% 54.57% 58.23% 38.85% 41.37% 2013 29.05% 52.42% 55.91% 32.93% 42.61% 2004 2007 Westchester Hudson Valley 55.13% 30.45% 35.90% 55.00% 29.82% 35.67% 52.60% 26.66% 31.18% Ulster 2013 6 Average Private Sector Job-Count High-Wage and Low-Wage Sectors by Area 2004-2007-2013 Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations 2004 Dutchess County Orange County Putnam County Rockland County Sullivan County Ulster County Westchester County Hudson Valley Region High-Wage Low-Wage Total, All Private High-Wage Low-Wage Total, All Private High-Wage Low-Wage Total, All Private High-Wage Low-Wage Total, All Private High-Wage Low-Wage Total, All Private High-Wage Low-Wage Total, All Private High-Wage Low-Wage Total, All Private High-Wage Low-Wage Total, All Private Average Wages $62,248 $27,402 $39,637 $39,206 $21,887 $31,432 $45,490 $25,127 $37,183 $61,258 $28,834 $41,209 $36,230 $20,153 $26,456 $34,296 $20,330 $28,030 $93,109 $36,057 $53,428 $69,391 $30,017 $44,153 2007 % Private Wage 157.0% 69.1% 124.7% 69.6% 122.3% 67.6% 148.7% 70.0% 136.9% 76.2% 122.4% 72.5% 174.3% 67.5% 157.2% 68.0% Average Wages $68,940 $30,681 $43,867 $43,250 $23,481 $34,269 $49,779 $26,967 $40,627 $67,129 $32,719 $46,088 $37,714 $22,649 $29,176 $39,069 $22,413 $31,574 $111,840 $40,858 $62,027 $80,132 $33,766 $50,307 2013 % Private Wage 157.2% 69.9% 126.2% 68.5% 122.5% 66.4% 145.7% 71.0% 129.3% 77.6% 123.7% 71.0% 180.3% 65.9% 159.3% 67.1% Average Wages $77,915 $35,246 $47,643 $48,702 $24,728 $37,295 $56,516 $28,297 $44,614 $77,521 $36,999 $50,342 $40,293 $25,609 $32,210 $42,304 $24,993 $34,099 $122,712 $44,183 $65,118 $89,101 $37,455 $53,561 % Private Wage 163.5% 74.0% 130.6% 66.3% 126.7% 63.4% 154.0% 73.5% 125.1% 79.5% 124.1% 73.3% 188.4% 67.9% 166.4% 69.9% Across the region, average private-sector wages advanced 21.3 percent, on average, with Orange and Putnam reporting the lowest outcomes at 18.65 percent and 19.98 percent, respectively. Rockland County reported the highest 10-year change at 22.16 percent. 7 Hudson Valley Public to Private Sector Job-Count Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Hudson Valley Ratio Private to Public Private Region Public 2004 158,091 716,584 4.5 2005 158,173 722,241 4.6 2006 158,702 727,040 4.6 2007 160,393 736,434 4.6 2008 162,423 730,559 4.5 2009 161,508 699,586 4.3 2010 159,560 697,726 4.4 2011 154,113 709,840 4.6 2012 148,909 716,416 4.8 2013 146,220 724,199 5.0 Over the 10-year period, the ratio of private-sector to public-sector jobs increased from 4.5 to 5.0. This reflects the significant decline in the public-sector job-count following the Great Recession. Hudson Valley Region Ratio Private to Public Job-Count 5.0 4.8 4.5 2004 4.6 2005 4.6 2006 4.6 2007 4.6 4.5 2008 4.3 4.4 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Public to Private Sector Average Wages Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Public Private $46,759 $48,959 $52,054 $53,657 $56,479 $58,419 $60,489 $61,679 $63,956 $65,551 $44,153 $45,751 $47,841 $50,307 $51,000 $50,212 $51,753 $52,535 $53,733 $53,561 Ratio Prviate to Public $0.94 $0.93 $0.92 $0.94 $0.90 $0.86 $0.86 $0.85 $0.84 $0.82 8 As of 2013, the ratio of private- to public-sector average wages was .82 to one, down from .94 to one in 2004. This decline indicates a trend that began with the onset of the Great Recession and is the outcome of the relative decline in high-wage private-sector jobs. Hudson Valley Region Ratio of Private to Public Average Wages $0.94 $0.93 $0.94 $0.92 $0.90 $0.86 $0.86 $0.85 $0.84 $0.82 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Average Public and Private Sector Job-Count by Area 2004-2007-2013 Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations 2004 Average Job-Count Dutchess County Public Private Orange County Public Private Putnam County Public Private Rockland County Public Private Sullivan County Public Private Ulster County Public Private Westchester County Public Private Hudson Valley Region Public Private 22,040 94,131 26,751 99,746 4,679 19,363 20,147 91,006 6,149 19,434 14,412 47,367 63,913 345,537 158,091 716,584 2007 Public as a Percent of All Jobs 19.0% 21.1% 19.5% 18.1% 24.0% 23.3% 15.6% 18.1% Average Job-Count 21,904 94,647 27,371 102,620 4,645 21,255 21,475 94,118 6,269 19,681 14,229 48,017 64,501 356,096 160,394 736,434 2013 Public as a Percent of All Jobs 18.8% 21.1% 17.9% 18.6% 24.2% 22.9% 15.3% 17.9% Average Job-Count 20,173 89,792 25,196 106,876 4,399 20,253 19,887 96,055 5,699 18,888 13,008 44,199 57,858 348,136 146,220 724,199 Public as a Percent of All Jobs 18.3% 19.1% 17.8% 17.2% 23.2% 22.7% 14.3% 16.8% 9 Ratio Private to Public Job-Count 2004-2007-2013 6.0 5.4 5.5 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.2 5.0 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.1 3.7 3.7 Dutchess Orange Putnam Rockland 2004 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.4 Sullivan Ulster 2007 Westchester Hudson Valley 2013 Across the region, Sullivan and Ulster are the most dependent on public-sector jobs at 23.2 and 22.7 percent of all jobs, respectively. Westchester is the least dependent at 14.3 percent of all jobs. 2004 Average Wages Dutchess County Orange County Putnam County Rockland County Sullivan County Ulster County Westchester County Hudson Valley Region Public $41,497 Private $39,637 Public $58,047 Private $31,432 Public $58,047 Private $37,183 Public $45,903 Private $41,209 Public $26,456 Public $34,230 Private $28,030 Public $52,626 Private $53,428 Private Private Wage as a Percent of Public 95.52% Private Wage as a Percent of Public $43,867 54.15% $34,269 90.61% $40,627 69.39% $46,088 71.23% $29,176 88.29% $31,574 64.80% $62,027 67.79% $50,307 $44,614 65.01% $50,342 77.74% $32,210 60.93% $34,099 61.67% $74,820 103.57% $53,657 94.43% 63.72% $55,294 $59,891 101.52% $37,295 $52,867 $46,578 81.89% 82.08% $64,760 $45,025 57.46% $47,643 $68,627 $52,198 89.77% Private Wage as a Percent of Public $58,525 $57,034 64.06% Average Wages $58,047 $49,388 $46,759 $44,153 Average Wages 2013 $48,415 $46,044 Private Public 2007 $65,118 87.03% $65,551 93.76% $53,561 81.71% 10 Average private-sector wages relative to average public-sector wages is the highest in Westchester at .87 to one. The lowest ratio is in Sullivan at .61 to one, closely followed by Ulster at .62 to one. Across the region, there is a close correlation between a county’s dependence on public-sector jobs and the level of private-sector wages. On average, the higher the dependence on public-sector jobs, the lower the average private-sector wage. Average Private-Sector Wage per One Dollar of Average Public-Sector Wage $0.96 $0.91 $0.82 $0.65 $0.61 $0.57 $0.54 Dutchess $0.87 $0.78 $0.71 $0.69 $0.65 $0.64 $0.64 Orange Putnam Rockland 2004 $0.94 $0.94 $0.90 $0.88 $0.82 $1.02 $1.04 Sullivan 2007 $0.82 $0.68 $0.62 Ulster Westchester Hudson Valley 2013 Preliminary Job-Count Data by County 2009.Q3-2014.Q3 The following charts and discussion examine private-sector job growth by county and industry sub-sector. The data used for 2014.Q3 is preliminary and subject to change. Industry sub-sector data captures approximately 90 percent of sector data. As a result, it is an estimate of job growth. The cutoff for inclusion was the addition of 100 or more jobs in Dutchess, Orange, Rockland and Westchester, and 50 or more jobs across the balance of the region. The period of analysis is 2009.Q3 — last quarter of the Great Recession — through 2014.Q3. A check mark in the first column indicates that the average wage paid in the sub-sector as of 2014.Q3 exceeded the average private-sector wage as of the same date. If the check mark is red, the average exceeded the average high wage. The NAICS — North America Industry Classification System — is shown in column two and provides the following information: The first two digits give the industry (sector), the third digit is the industry sub-sector. Sub-sector information helps to pinpoint areas of growth (decline) in otherwise declining (increasing) sectors. 11 Dutchess County: Areas of Growth 2009.Q3 — 2014.Q3P* Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Above Average Wage NAICS Industry (Sub-Sector) Average Wages 2014.Q3 2009.Q32014.Q3 % change Jobs Added 722 Food Services and Drinking Places $17,512 19.58% 1,310 621 Ambulatory Health Care Services $64,284 19.55% 1,129 611 Educational Services $48,582 8.76% 552 445 Food and Beverage Stores $23,792 11.25% 387 811 $59,805 41.26% 339 451 Repair and Maintenance Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument, and Book Stores $18,830 49.89% 229 721 Accommodation $25,150 15.87% 193 238 Specialty Trade Contractors $57,925 5.50% 184 311 $31,740 103.46% 169 444 Food Manufacturing Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers $31,982 13.04% 155 111 Crop Production $24,163 52.48% 148 236 Construction of Buildings $52,250 9.71% 146 562 $57,440 44.55% 144 813 Waste Management and Remediation Services Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organizations $31,042 12.45% 132 441 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers $50,301 8.70% 125 812 Personal and Laundry Services $19,555 10.96% 121 623 $33,464 2.20% 115 711 Nursing and Residential Care Facilities Performing Arts, Spectator Sports, and Related Industries $29,042 24.83% 110 712 Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar Institutions $20,806 126.91% 105 446 Health and Personal Care Stores $32,555 10.82% 103 713 Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries $16,084 5.63% 101 *2014 Preliminary Data Of the 21 sub-sectors that added 100 or more jobs between 2009.Q3 and 2014.Q3, six paid average wages above the average private-sector wage. The health care sector (62) continues to be an important source of growth: Over the period, ambulatory and health services (621) added 1,129 jobs, while nursing and residential care facilities (623) added 115. The most significant job growth occurred in food services and drinking places (722) at 1,310 jobs. The job growth in food services, accommodation (721), performing arts (711), and amusement (713) is symptomatic of the increasing importance of tourism in Dutchess as well as in the surrounding counties. 12 Orange County Areas of Growth 2009.Q3 — 2014.Q3P* Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Above Average Wage NAICS Industry (Sub-Sector) Average Wages 2014.Q3 2009.Q32014.Q3 % change Jobs Added 561 Administrative and Support Services $28,668 41.25% 1,836 448 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores $22,944 36.40% 1,471 621 Ambulatory Health Care Services $52,308 14.65% 1,085 722 Food Services and Drinking Places $17,040 13.11% 1,036 445 Food and Beverage Stores $22,129 20.90% 799 322 Paper Manufacturing $46,618 235.34% 573 624 Social Assistance $23,533 14.80% 540 493 Warehousing and Storage $32,823 159.98% 476 423 Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods $55,666 17.57% 449 611 Educational Services $28,347 19.46% 360 813 Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organizations $23,913 17.86% 320 812 Personal and Laundry Services $22,789 20.03% 318 424 Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods $46,592 9.63% 309 453 Miscellaneous Store Retailers $23,451 16.64% 296 311 Food Manufacturing $70,426 29.95% 217 711 Performing Arts, Spectator Sports, and Related Industries $26,313 68.30% 204 $48,723 10.65% 198 $48,350 88.02% 191 441 562 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers Waste Management and Remediation Services 721 Accommodation $21,642 18.59% 177 447 Gasoline Stations $21,502 24.54% 174 484 $55,416 9.40% 163 485 Truck Transportation Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation $27,506 10.22% 157 488 Support Activities for Transportation $42,607 76.63% 149 517 Telecommunications $63,775 10.97% 127 236 Construction of Buildings $43,006 13.10% 124 $33,746 10.68% 120 446 Health and Personal Care Stores *2014 Preliminary Data Of the 27 sub-sectors that added 100 or more jobs between 2009.Q3 and 2014.Q3, 11 paid average wages above the average private-sector wage. The retail sector (44) added the highest number of jobs at 2,763, with all sub-sectors — with the exception of motor vehicle (441) — paying below the average private-sector wage. An encouraging sign in the manufacturing sector (33) was the 235.34 percent (573 jobs) increase in paper manufacturing jobs. As was the case in Dutchess, ambulatory health care (621), food services and drinking places (722), and accommodation (721) were important sources of growth. 13 Putnam County Areas of Growth 2009.Q3 — 2014.Q3P* Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Above Average Wage NAICS Industry (Sub-Sector) Average Wages 2014.Q3 % change 2009.Q32014.Q3 Jobs Added 623 Nursing and Residential Care Facilities $34,005 33.89% 285 621 Ambulatory Health Care Services $89,681 18.95% 256 722 Food Services and Drinking Places $18,642 14.40% 215 713 Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries $21,541 27.38% 156 453 Miscellaneous Store Retailers $25,413 87.11% 104 445 Food and Beverage Stores $21,896 9.91% 88 236 Construction of Buildings $46,069 19.98% 83 811 Repair and Maintenance $34,743 17.81% 77 424 Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods $58,510 18.15% 76 812 Personal and Laundry Services $29,265 17.10% 68 452 General Merchandise Stores $14,353 27.37% 60 Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods $59,544 14.11% 54 423 *2014 Preliminary Data Of the 12 industry sub-sectors that created 50 or more jobs, five paid average wages above the private-sector average wage. The primary sources of growth were health care, retail, and wholesale. Health care added 541 jobs; the job-count in nursing (623) increased by 285 jobs while the job-count in ambulatory health (621) advanced by 256. Retail (44-45) added 192 jobs across two sub-sectors. Wholesale (42) added a total of 130 jobs. 14 Rockland County Areas of Growth 2009.Q3 — 2014.Q3P* Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Above Average Wage NAICS Industry (Sub-Sector) Average Wages 2014.Q3 % change 2009.Q32014.Q3 Jobs Added 561 Administrative and Support Services $37,375 34.17% 1,604 722 Food Services and Drinking Places $19,602 18.02% 1,082 621 Ambulatory Health Care Services $55,497 15.37% 1,052 721 Accommodation $104,782 98.34% 868 623 Nursing and Residential Care Facilities $30,930 17.70% 837 624 Social Assistance $25,698 21.92% 823 445 Food and Beverage Stores $26,239 28.75% 758 238 Specialty Trade Contractors $59,958 16.65% 635 611 Educational Services $31,842 17.65% 521 424 Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods $59,141 21.77% 349 531 Real Estate $44,153 27.46% 323 441 $57,789 28.43% 292 813 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organizations $24,304 11.71% 290 236 Construction of Buildings $47,696 29.02% 271 448 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores $17,874 13.20% 240 442 $38,148 27.11% 223 451 Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument, and Book Stores $17,905 35.06% 191 237 Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction $81,959 41.21% 186 812 $23,302 17.79% 183 711 Personal and Laundry Services Performing Arts, Spectator Sports, and Related Industries $40,559 92.09% 175 311 Food Manufacturing $41,830 20.67% 167 493 Warehousing and Storage $46,514 25.43% 144 492 Couriers and Messengers $50,333 47.75% 141 811 Repair and Maintenance $42,836 13.51% 112 485 Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation $27,092 11.32% 111 312 Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing $35,120 984.85% 108 *2014 Preliminary Data Of the 26 industry sub-sectors that created 100 or more jobs, nine paid average wages above the private-sector average wage. The primary sources of growth were accommodation and food services (72), followed by health care (62), retail (44-45), and administration and support services (56). Of the high-growth sectors, only two sub-sectors — ambulatory health care (621) and motor vehicle (441) — paid above-average wages. Consistent with Orange County, Rockland witnessed an increase in manufacturing. For the period, the county added 167 jobs in food manufacturing (311) and 108 jobs in beverage manufacturing (312). Of the two, food manufacturing paid above-average wages. 15 Sullivan County Areas of Growth 2009.Q3 — 2014.Q3P* Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Above Average Wage NAICS Industry (Sub-Sector) 721 452 Accommodation General Merchandise Stores Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and Similar 813 Organizations 524 Insurance Carriers and Related Activities 711 Performing Arts, Spectator Sports, and Related Industries 713 Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries 238 Specialty Trade Contractors 621 Ambulatory Health Care Services 423 Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods Credit Intermediation and Related Activities 522 *2014 Preliminary Data Average Wages 2014.Q3 Jobs Added 25,085 21,380 % change 2009.Q32014.Q3 29.81% 72.22% 21,768 52,696 NA 27,386 38,896 55,689 46,153 42,253 35.08% 64.52% NA 17.97% 19.70% 9.95% 31.48% 27.49% 281 167 96 92 91 84 68 68 465 342 Of the 10 sub-sectors that created 50 or more jobs, half paid wages above the private-sector average. The primary sources of growth were accommodation (721), general retail (452), and category 813 (this sub-sector focuses primarily on advocacy). Important high-wage growth was also reported in finance and insurance (52), sub-sectors 524 and 522. Ulster County Areas of Growth 2009.Q3 — 2014.Q3P* Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Above Average Wage NAICS Industry (Sub-Sector) Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional, and Similar Organizations 522 Credit Intermediation and Related Activities 524 Insurance Carriers and Related Activities 323 Printing and Related Support Activities 448 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores 454 Nonstore Retailers 334 Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing 451 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Musical Instrument, and Book Stores 511 Publishing Industries (except Internet) 485 Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation 622 Hospitals 493 Warehousing and Storage 333 Machinery Manufacturing 517 Telecommunications 624 Social Assistance 443 Electronics and Appliance Stores *2014 Preliminary Data 813 Average Wages 2014.Q3 % change 2009.Q32014.Q3 $18,271 $42,697 $46,603 $40,487 $14,872 $44,455 $44,989 $22,019 $28,631 $19,855 $41,991 $38,135 $51,183 $83,418 $23,032 $26,348 52.57% 26.48% 43.94% 185.30% 38.23% 28.34% 184.81% 37.56% 157.31% 14.43% 5.73% 74.09% 10.34% 40.24% 3.68% 26.62% Jobs Added 392 208 193 193 175 147 146 141 133 98 89 81 81 66 58 55 Similar to Sullivan County, over half of all Ulster sub-sectors that added 50 or more jobs paid wages above the private-sector average. Sub-sector 813 added the most jobs, followed by the finance and insurance sector (52) — intermediation (522) and insurance carriers (524). Manufacturing (31-33) added 420 jobs across three sub-sectors — printing (323), computer (334), and machinery (333). Overall, the job trend is toward high-wage sub-sectors. 16 Westchester County Areas of Growth 2009.Q3 — 2014.Q3P* Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Above Average Wage NAICS Industry (Sub-Sector) 722 Food Services and Drinking Places 561 Administrative and Support Services 621 Ambulatory Health Care Services 445 Food and Beverage Stores 812 Personal and Laundry Services 713 Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries 441 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 236 Construction of Buildings 452 General Merchandise Stores 424 Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods 512 Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries 622 Hospitals 446 Health and Personal Care Stores 811 Repair and Maintenance 524 Insurance Carriers and Related Activities 454 Nonstore Retailers 442 Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores 623 Nursing and Residential Care Facilities 444 Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers 711 Performing Arts, Spectator Sports, and Related Industries 485 Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation 311 Food Manufacturing 721 Accommodation 493 Warehousing and Storage 237 Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction 447 Gasoline Stations 492 Couriers and Messengers 562 Waste Management and Remediation Services 484 Truck Transportation 315 Apparel Manufacturing 532 Rental and Leasing Services 519 Other Information Services *2014 Preliminary Data Average Wages 2014.Q3 $22,860 $41,829 $66,797 $25,849 $28,654 $30,042 $58,458 $61,794 $24,780 $89,707 $38,873 $66,821 $37,135 $40,670 $95,802 $60,724 $29,212 $37,974 $42,422 $50,432 $36,400 $60,830 $37,032 $63,664 $99,177 $25,376 $39,489 $59,882 $45,078 $70,694 $66,748 $64,604 % change 2009.Q32014.Q3 29.49% 20.03% 8.29% 14.39% 23.82% 13.64% 24.46% 17.51% 11.89% 14.77% 78.22% 2.68% 11.25% 12.90% 5.12% 20.81% 22.17% 2.17% 11.10% 28.15% 4.28% 11.42% 7.66% 83.55% 7.14% 17.75% 15.42% 20.09% 18.40% 46.08% 7.52% 13.03% Jobs Added 6,161 3,721 1,915 1,642 1,410 1,358 1,125 870 851 769 454 404 389 374 373 350 343 338 324 245 226 220 219 215 210 201 183 164 158 139 114 107 Of the 32 sub-sectors that added 100 or more jobs, eight paid average wages above the average private-sector wage. The two most important sources of growth were food services (722) at 6,161 jobs, followed by administrative and support services (561) at 3,721. The job-count in the retail sector (44-45) advanced 5,994, second only to the food services and accommodation sector (72) at 6,380. As is the case across the region, health care (62) continued to advance, adding 2,658 jobs across three sub-sectors. All but nursing and residential care (623) paid average wages below the average privatesector wage. Within the manufacturing sector, job gains were reported in both the food and apparel industry sub-sectors. 17 Dutchess County Job-Count CAGR Data Source: NYS Department of Labor, Author Calculations 0.47% 0.18% 0.51% 0.45% -0.43% -0.52% -0.87% -2.59% -3.66% Total Private Above Average Wages 2004-2013 2004-2007 Below Average Wage 2007-2013 Over the 10-year period beginning in 2004, the private-sector job-count declined at an annual rate of 0.52 percent. The job-count in the high-wage sectors fell 2.59 percent per annum, with six of the nine sectors reporting job losses. In the low-wage sectors, the job-count advanced in seven of the 11 sectors and grew 0.47 percent per annum. Dutchess County: CAGR by Sector Ranked from Highest Average Wage to Lowest Average Wage. Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations CAGR Job-Count Average Wages 2013 Utilities Manufacturing Management of Companies and Enterprises Wholesale Trade Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Finance and Insurance Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Construction Information High-Wage Sectors Health Care and Social Assistance Educational Services Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Transportation and Warehousing Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Other Services (except Public Administration) Unclassified Retail Trade Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Low-Wage Sectors 2004-2007 2007-2013 2004-2013 $122,497 $102,161 $75,969 $73,591 $66,129 $60,678 $59,783 $53,168 $50,085 -3.69% -3.94% 24.33% 0.91% 2.39% 0.98% 3.45% 3.29% -0.38% 0.21% -5.09% 4.67% -2.35% 4.40% -2.57% -0.88% -4.96% -5.13% -1.11% -4.71% 10.85% -1.28% 3.72% -1.40% 0.54% -2.28% -3.57% $77,915 -0.43% -3.66% -2.59% $47,358 $42,748 0.64% 3.06% 1.37% 1.33% 1.12% 1.90% $38,977 $37,512 $36,883 $34,246 $30,791 $27,482 $27,039 $18,911 $17,229 -2.06% 2.65% -1.95% 0.41% -8.04% -0.74% 3.41% 4.78% 0.95% 0.88% -9.06% 1.16% 0.86% -6.03% -0.14% 1.59% -2.24% 1.91% -0.11% -5.32% 0.12% 0.71% -6.70% -0.34% 2.19% 0.04% 1.59% $35,246 0.51% 0.45% 0.47% 18 Average Private Sector Employment 2004-2013 Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations HighWage JobCount LowWage JobCount Average WageHigh % HighWage of Total JobCount Average WageLow % LowWage Of Total JobCount Ratio Low to High JobCount* Ratio High to Low Wage Average Pay** Year Total Private 2004 94,131 33,049 $62,248 61,084 $27,402 35.10% 64.90% 1.85 0.44 2005 95,108 33,626 $64,046 61,483 $28,135 35.40% 64.60% 1.83 0.44 2006 95,652 33,593 $66,056 62,059 $29,518 35.10% 64.90% 1.85 0.45 2007 94,647 32,620 $68,940 62,027 $30,681 34.50% 65.50% 1.90 0.45 2008 92,662 31,387 $71,741 61,275 $31,710 33.90% 66.10% 1.95 0.44 2009 89,275 28,616 $73,699 60,659 $32,803 32.10% 67.90% 2.12 0.45 2010 88,005 27,507 $74,612 60,498 $33,146 31.30% 68.70% 2.20 0.44 2011 88,666 27,125 $78,054 61,541 $33,825 30.60% 69.40% 2.27 0.43 2012 89,274 26,344 $78,140 62,930 $34,777 29.50% 70.50% 2.39 0.45 2013 89,792 26,087 $77,915 63,705 $35,246 29.10% 70.90% *For example: In 2004, there were 1.85 low-wage jobs for every one high-wage job. **For example: In 2004, low-wage jobs paid on average $0.44 per $1.00 earned in high-wage jobs. 2.44 0.45 Dutchess County Annual Average Job-Count Data Source: NYS Department of Labor 61,084 61,483 62,059 62,027 61,275 33,049 33,626 33,593 32,620 31,387 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Above Average Wages 62,930 63,705 27,125 26,344 26,087 2011 2012 2013 60,659 60,498 61,541 28,616 27,507 2009 2010 Below Average Wages 19 64.9% Dutchess County Percent of All Private-Sector Jobs that Paid Average Wages Above and Below the Average Private-Sector Wage NYS Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations 70.5% 69.4% 68.7% 67.9% 66.1% 65.5% 64.9% 64.6% 35.1% 35.4% 35.1% 34.5% 33.9% 32.1% 31.3% 70.9% 30.6% 29.5% 29.1% 2009 2010 2011 % Below Average 2012 2013 High Wage Jobs Peaked in 2005 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 % Above Average Dutchess County Annual Average Job-Count Low-Wage Jobs to High-Wage Jobs 2.39 2.12 1.85 1.83 1.85 2004 2005 2006 1.90 2007 2.20 2.44 2.27 1.95 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Dutchess County Average Low-Wage Wages Per One Dollar of Average High-Wage Wages $0.45 $0.45 $0.44 $0.45 $0.44 $0.45 $0.44 $0.45 $0.44 $0.43 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20 Average Private-Sector Job-Count: High-Wage Sectors 2004-2007-2013 Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Percent Total PrivateSector JobCount Percent Total Private-Sector Job-Count Percent Total PrivateSector JobCount Sectors: Sorted from Highest to Lowest Average Annual Wage 2004 Manufacturing 15,752 16.73% 13,963 14.75% 10,204 11.36% 693 0.74% 619 0.65% 627 0.70% 136 0.14% 146 0.15% 189 0.21% Wholesale Trade Management of Companies and Enterprises 2,078 2.21% 2,135 2.26% 1,851 2.06% 385 0.41% 740 0.78% 973 1.08% Finance and Insurance Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 2,937 3.12% 3,024 3.20% 2,587 2.88% 3,552 3.77% 3,932 4.15% 3,729 4.15% Construction 5,555 5.90% 6,122 6.47% 4,513 5.03% Information 1,961 2.08% 1,939 2.05% 1,414 1.57% 33,049 35.11% 32,620 34.46% 26,087 29.05% Utilities Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Above Average 2007 2013 The contraction in high-wage jobs is a national trend that has impacted both the county and the region. The most significant decline continues to occur in the computer and electronic manufacturing sub-sector followed by the publishing industries (information sector) and the wholesale trade sector. The construction industries continue to be impacted by the 2007 housing crisis and subsequent credit crunch. Preliminary data for 2014 and 2015 suggests a resurgence in the construction industries. . Dutchess County Manufacturing Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 15,752 13,963 12,972 11,168 10,204 7,820 2,616 Manufacturing Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing 31 2004 334 2007 2,593 2,384 All Other Manufacturing - 2013 21 Dutchess County Information Select Sub-Sectors Job-Count 1,961 1,939 153, Average Wage $51,775 1,414 470 1,462 1,528 1,262 412 Information Publishing Industries (except Internet) All Other Information 51 511 - 2004 2007 2013 Dutchess County Wholesale Trade Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 2,078 2,135 1,851 1,191 1,275 1,185 629 544 478 258 317 188 Wholesale Trade Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers 42 423 424 425 2004 2007 2013 Dutchess County Construction Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 5,555 6,122 4,513 3,543 4,107 2,922 1,741 1,718 1,449 271 297 143 Construction Construction of Buildings Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction Specialty Trade Contractors 23 236 237 238 2004 2007 2013 22 Average Private-Sector Job-Count: Low-Wage Sectors 2004-2007-2013. Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Sectors: Sorted from Highest to Lowest Average Annual Wage 2004 Percent Total PrivateSector JobCount 2007 Percent Total Private-Sector Job-Count 2013 Percent Total PrivateSector JobCount Health Care and Social Assistance 16,670 17.71% 16,991 17.95% 18,434 20.53% Transportation and Warehousing 3,041 3.23% 3,289 3.48% 1,860 2.07% Educational Services Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 6,295 6.69% 6,890 7.28% 7,459 8.31% 5,310 5.64% 4,988 5.27% 5,257 5.85% Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 1,607 1.71% 1,515 1.60% 1,624 1.81% 529 0.56% 585 0.62% 643 0.72% 14,411 15.31% 14,094 14.89% 13,979 15.57% 3,467 3.68% 3,510 3.71% 3,694 4.11% 351 0.37% 273 0.29% 188 0.21% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 1,804 1.92% 2,075 2.19% 1,811 2.02% Accommodation and Food Services 7,599 8.07% 7,817 8.26% 8,756 9.75% 61,084 64.89% 62,027 65.54% 63,705 70.95% Retail Trade Other Services (except Public Administration) Unclassified Below Average The health care sector continues to expand, increasing from 17.71 percent of private-sector employment in 2004 to 20.53 percent in 2013. Ambulatory and health services posted the largest advance, followed by nursing and residential care facilities. The job-count in the hospital sub-sector remained steady. Over the past 10 years, average wages within the sector have risen 45.00 percent from $32,665 in 2004 to $47,358 in 2013, just shy of the 2013 average private-sector wage. Retail trade — along with accommodation and food services — remain important employers, accounting for 25.32 percent of all private-sector employment in 2013. Transportation and warehousing continued to contract. 23 Dutchess County Transportation and Warehousing Select Sub-Sector JobCount: Limited Data Available 3,041 3,289 1,860 498 487 703 277 602 541 Transportation and Warehousing Truck Transportation Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation 48 484 485 2004 2007 2013 Dutchess County Arts Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 1,804 2,075 1,811 1,350 356 399 379 97 80 1,596 1,345 86 Arts, Entertainment, and Performing Arts, Spectator Museums, Historical Sites, Amusement, Gambling, Recreation Sports, and Related and Similar Institutions and Recreation Industries Industries 71 711 712 2004 2007 713 2013 Dutchess County Accommodation and Food Services Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 8,756 7,599 7,817 7,805 6,645 954 1,063 6,754 951 Accommodation and Food Services Accommodation Food Services and Drinking Places 72 721 722 2004 2007 2013 24 Relationship Between Public and Private Job-Count 2004-2013 Dutchess County Ratio of Private to Public Job-Count 2004-2013 Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Public Private 22,040 22,300 21,903 21,904 22,344 22,196 22,149 21,450 20,486 20,173 94,131 95,108 95,652 94,647 92,662 89,275 88,005 88,666 89,274 89,792 Ratio Private to Public 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.4 4.5 Post-Great Recession, the number of private-sector jobs has risen relative to the public sector. As of 2013, there were 4.5 private-sector jobs for every one public-sector job, compared to 4:1 at the height of the downturn. This increase is directly attributable to the contraction in the public-sector job-count. Overall, public-sector jobs have declined on average 1.0 percent relative to a 0.5 percent decline in the private sector. Dutchess County Ratio of Private to Public Job-Count 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ratio Private to Public 25 Dutchess County Ratio of Private to Public Average Wages Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Public $41,497 $43,999 $46,307 $48,415 $51,018 $52,589 $53,912 $54,742 $57,538 $58,047 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Private $39,637 $40,832 $42,350 $43,867 $45,270 $45,911 $46,107 $47,356 $47,573 $47,643 Ratio 0.96 0.93 0.91 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.87 0.83 0.82 Over the 10-year period beginning in 2004, there has been a steady decline in the level of average annual wages paid in the private sector relative to the public sector. Public-sector wages have grown on average 3.80 percent per year, compared to a 2.10 percent increase in the private sector. This reflects the steady decline of high-wage jobs in the private sector in concert with systematic wage increases in the public sector. As of 2013, the average private-sector job paid $0.82 for every $1.00 paid in the public sector. Dutchess County Ratio of Private to Public Average Annual Wages 1.00 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.87 0.85 0.83 0.82 2012 2013 0.80 0.75 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 26 Orange County Job-Count CAGR Sorted by Above and Below Average Private Sector Wages. Data Source: NYS Department of Labor, Author Calculations 1.42% 1.35% 1.46% 0.95% 0.77% 0.68% 0.62% 0.21% 0.01% Total Private Above Average Wages 2004-2013 2004-2007 Below Average Wages 2007-2013 Over the 10-year period beginning in 2004, the private-sector job-count grew at an annual rate of 0.77 percent. The job-count fell in eight of the 11 high-wage sectors and two of the nine low-wage sectors. Overall, the job-count in high-wage sectors grew 0.21 percent per annum while the job-count in the low-wage sectors increased 1.42 percent per annum. Orange County: CAGR by Sector Ranked from Highest Average Wage to Lowest Average Wage. Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations CAGR Job-Count Utilities Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Information Management of Companies and Enterprises Finance and Insurance Wholesale Trade Construction Manufacturing Health Care and Social Assistance Transportation and Warehousing High-Wage Sectors Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Administrative and Support and Waste Management Unclassified Other Services (except Public Administration) Retail Trade Educational Services Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Low-Wage Sectors Average Wages 2013 $116,394 $70,402 $60,669 $56,091 $55,575 $53,058 $50,985 $48,307 $48,155 $44,043 $40,245 $48,702 $36,511 $28,507 $26,369 $26,135 $26,060 $25,663 $24,820 $20,023 $17,049 $24,728 2004-2007 2007-2013 1.94% -12.64% 1.97% 0.33% -5.77% -2.64% -0.56% 2.65% -1.62% 1.60% 3.12% 0.62% 2.59% 0.17% -4.00% 2.06% 1.76% 2.58% -0.11% -1.89% 1.06% 1.35% -3.82% 0.29% 0.22% -2.30% -0.65% -3.30% -0.32% -3.78% 0.18% 2.10% -0.14% 0.01% -4.19% 5.40% -1.30% 0.46% 1.03% 2.87% 1.24% 3.16% 1.38% 1.46% 2004-2013 -1.94% -4.22% 0.80% -1.43% -2.39% -3.08% -0.40% -1.68% -0.43% 1.93% 0.93% 0.21% -1.98% 3.62% -2.21% 0.99% 1.28% 2.77% 0.79% 1.45% 1.28% 1.42% 27 Average Private Sector Employment 2004-2013 Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Year HighWage JobCount Total Private LowWage JobCount Average WageHigh Average WageLow % HighWage of Total JobCount % LowWage Of Total JobCount Ratio Low to High JobCount* Ratio Highto Low-Wage Average Pay ** 2004 99,746 54,969 $39,206 44,778 $21,887 55.11% 44.89% 0.81 0.56 2005 100,854 55,343 $40,776 45,511 $22,468 54.87% 45.13% 0.82 0.55 2006 101,889 55,749 $41,992 46,141 $23,066 54.72% 45.29% 0.83 0.55 2007 102,620 56,001 $43,250 46,621 $23,481 54.57% 45.43% 0.83 0.54 2008 102,894 55,968 $44,661 46,928 $23,868 54.39% 45.61% 0.84 0.53 2009 100,092 54,731 $45,561 45,364 $23,921 54.68% 45.32% 0.83 0.53 2010 100,813 54,241 $46,170 46,571 $24,476 53.80% 46.20% 0.86 0.53 2011 103,103 54,468 $47,912 48,634 $24,490 52.83% 47.17% 0.89 0.51 2012 104,822 54,689 $48,727 50,134 $24,582 52.17% 47.83% 0.92 0.50 0.91 0.51 2013 106,876 56,020 $48,702 50,858 $24,728 52.42% 47.59% *For example: In 2004, there were 0.81 low-wage jobs for every one high-wage job. **For example: In 2004, low-wage jobs paid on average $0.56 per $1.00 earned in high-wage jobs. Orange County Annual Average Job-Count Data Source: NYS Department of Labor 54,969 55,343 55,749 56,001 56,020 55,968 54,731 54,241 54,468 54,689 50,134 50,858 48,634 44,778 2004 45,511 2005 46,141 2006 46,621 2007 46,928 46,571 45,364 2008 Above Average Wages 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Below Average Wages 28 Orange County Percent of All Private-Sector Jobs that Paid Average Wages Above and Below the Average Private-Sector Wage NYS Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations 55.1% 54.9% 54.7% 54.6% 54.4% 54.7% 44.9% 45.1% 45.3% 45.4% 45.6% 45.3% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 % Above Average 53.8% 46.2% 2010 52.8% 52.2% 52.4% 47.2% 47.8% 47.6% 2011 2012 2013 0.92 0.91 2012 2013 % Below Average Orange County Annual Average Job-Count Low-Wage Jobs to High-Wage Jobs 0.89 0.86 0.81 0.82 0.83 0.83 0.84 0.83 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Orange County Average Low-Wage Wages Per One Dollar of Average High-Wage Wages 0.56 0.55 0.55 0.54 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.51 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0.5 2012 0.51 2013 29 Average Private Sector Job-Count: High-Wage Sectors 2004-2007-2013. Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Sectors: Sorted from Highest to Lowest Average Annual Wage 2004 Utilities Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Information Percent Total Private Sector JobCount Percent Total Private Sector JobCount 2007 2013 Percent Total Private Sector JobCount 557 0.56% 590 0.57% 467 0.44% 87 0.09% 58 0.06% 59 0.06% 4,645 4.66% 4,925 4.80% 4,990 4.67% 2,447 2.45% 2,471 2.41% 2,149 2.01% Management of Companies and Enterprises 1,054 1.06% 882 0.86% 848 0.79% Finance and Insurance 3,878 3.89% 3,579 3.49% 2,926 2.74% Wholesale Trade 7,390 7.41% 7,267 7.08% 7,129 6.67% Construction 5,163 5.18% 5,585 5.44% 4,433 4.15% Manufacturing 8,120 8.14% 7,732 7.53% 7,814 7.31% Health Care and Social Assistance 16,816 16.86% 17,636 17.19% 19,973 18.69% Transportation and Warehousing 4,812 4.82% 5,276 5.14% 5,232 4.90% 54,969 55.11% 56,001 54.57% 56,020 52.42% Above Average Over the period, the high-wage sectors added 1,051 jobs. The job-count increased in health care (3,157), transportation and warehousing (420), and professional services (345). All other sectors declined during the period. As was the case across the region, the most significant job gains occurred in the health care sub-sectors, with ambulatory health care services increasing by 2,616 jobs, followed by nursing and residential care facilities with 750. Manufacturing fell overall, but witnessed significant growth in food, beverage and paper manufacturing, adding 796 jobs. Job losses were concentrated in plastics and rubber manufacturing and fabricated metal product manufacturing at 441 and 196, respectively. The decline in finance and insurance centered on the insurance sub-sector, while the information sector reported declines in both motion pictures and sound and publishing. Telecommunications expanded, adding 194 jobs. The construction sector remains under pressure. Orange County Health Care Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 19,973 16,816 17,636 5,859 6,165 8,475 4,965 4,834 Health Care and Social Assistance Ambulatory Health Care Services 62 621 2004 2007 4,121 2,700 3,026 3,450 Hospitals Nursing and Residential Care Facilities 622 623 2013 30 Orange County Manufacturing Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 8,120 7,732 7,814 959 534 636 49 Manufacturing Food Manufacturing 31 311 497 333 741 103 176 Beverage and Tobacco Paper Manufacturing Product Manufacturing 312 1,446 1,328 1,365 Chemical Manufacturing Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing 325 332 322 2004 2007 1,068 1,096 872 2013 Orange County Finance and Insurance Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 3,878 3,579 2,926 2,297 1,785 1,427 1,624 1,435 1,298 140 159 180 Finance and Insurance Credit Intermediation and Related Activities Securities, Commodity Contracts… Insurance Carriers and Related Activities 52 522 523 524 2004 2007 2013 Orange County Information Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 2,447 2,471 2,149 1,021 649 617 580 303 286 1,049 1,215 187 Information Publishing Industries (except Internet) Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries Telecommunications 51 511 512 517 2004 2007 2013 31 Orange County Wholesale Trade Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 7,390 7,267 7,129 3,819 2,683 2,955 2,850 3,408 3,551 887 903 728 Wholesale Trade Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers 42 423 424 425 2004 2007 2013 Average Private Sector Job-Count: Low-Wage Sectors 2004-2007-2013. Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Sectors: Sorted from Highest to Lowest Average Annual Wage Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Unclassified Other Services (except Public Administration) 2004 Percent Total Private Sector JobCount 2007 Percent Total Private Sector Job-Count 2013 Percent Total Private Sector JobCount 1,628 1.63% 1,758 1.71% 1,360 1.27% 4,384 4.40% 4,406 4.29% 6,040 5.65% 434 0.44% 384 0.37% 355 0.33% 4,845 4.86% 5,150 5.02% 5,293 4.95% 20,829 20.88% 21,948 21.39% 23,346 21.84% 1,824 1.83% 1,969 1.92% 2,333 2.18% 888 0.89% 885 0.86% 953 0.89% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 1,654 1.66% 1,562 1.52% 1,883 1.76% Accommodation and Food Services 8,292 8.31% 8,559 8.34% 9,295 8.70% 44,778 44.89% 46,621 45.43% 50,858 47.59% Retail Trade Educational Services Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Below Average Over the period, six low-wage jobs were created for every one high-wage job. The most significant increases were in retail trade, administrative and support and waste management, and accommodation and food services. Collectively, these three sectors accounted for 5,176 of the 6,080 jobs created. 32 Orange County Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 6,040 4,384 4,406 5,589 4,217 4,152 232 188 451 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Administrative and Support Services Waste Management and Remediation Services 56 561 562 2004 2007 2013 Orange County Accommodation and Food Services Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 8,292 8,559 9,295 7,318 975 786 7,773 8,338 957 Accommodation and Food Services Accommodation Food Services and Drinking Places 72 721 722 2004 2007 2013 Orange County Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 1,628 1,758 1,360 1,055 973 825 634 690 527 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Real Estate Rental and Leasing Services 53 531 532 2004 2007 2013 33 Orange County Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 1,654 1,562 1,883 1,203 1,308 358 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 71 157 321 97 93 118 Performing Arts, Spectator Museums, Historical Sites, Sports, and Related Industries and Similar Institutions 711 712 2004 2007 1,444 Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries 713 2013 Relationship Between Public and Private Job-Count 2004-2013 Orange County Ratio of Private to Public Job-Count 2004-2013 Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Orange County 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Public 26,751 27,203 27,098 27,371 27,639 27,603 27,531 26,675 25,847 25,196 Private 99,746 100,854 101,889 102,620 102,894 100,092 100,813 103,103 104,822 106,876 Ratio Private to Public 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.2 Post-Great Recession, the number of private-sector jobs has risen relative to the public sector. As of 2013, there were 4.2 private-sector jobs for every one public-sector job, compared to 3.7:1 at the height of the downturn. This increase is directly attributable to the contraction in the public-sector job-count. Overall, public-sector jobs have declined on average 0.66 percent relative to a 0.77 percent increase in the private sector. 34 Orange County Ratio Private to Public Job-Count 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.8 2004 2005 2006 3.7 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.7 2009 2010 3.6 3.4 3.2 2007 2008 2011 2012 2013 Orange County Ratio of Private to Public Average Wages Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Public Private $44,270 $45,241 $47,246 $49,388 $51,454 $53,086 $55,321 $56,743 $57,868 $58,525 $31,432 $32,514 $33,422 $34,269 $35,179 $35,755 $36,148 $36,863 $37,180 $37,295 Ratio 0.71 0.72 0.71 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.65 0.65 0.64 0.64 Over the 10-year period beginning in 2004, there has been a steady decline in the level of average annual wages paid in the private sector relative to the public sector. Public-sector wages have grown on average 3.15 percent per year compared to a 1.92 percent increase in the private sector. This reflects the steady decline of high-wage jobs in the private sector in concert with systematic wage increases in the public sector. As of 2013, the average private-sector job paid $0.64 for every $1.00 paid in the public sector. Orange County Ratio Private to Public Average Wages 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.64 0.62 0.60 0.58 $0.71 $0.72 $0.71 $0.69 $0.68 $0.67 $0.65 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 $0.65 $0.64 $0.64 2011 2012 2013 35 Putnam County Job-Count CAGR Data Source: NYS Department of Labor, Author Calculations 3.80% 3.16% 2.35% 0.82% 0.50% 0.25% 0.06% -0.80% -1.47% Above Average Wages Total Private 2004-2013 2004-2007 Below Average Wage 2007-2013 Over the 10-year period beginning in 2004, the private sector job-count increased at an annual rate of 0.50 percent. The job-count fell in four of the nine high-wage sectors and three of the nine lowwage sectors. Overall, employment grew at a faster pace in the low-wage sectors than in the highwage sectors, resulting in a 1.30 percent increase in low-wage jobs relative to high-wage jobs. Putnam County: CAGR by Sector Ranked from Highest Average Wage to Lowest Average Wage. Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations CAGR Job-Count Average Wages 2013 2004-2007 2007-2013 20042013 Information Finance and Insurance Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Health Care and Social Assistance Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Construction Transportation and Warehousing $67,761 $63,994 $61,946 $57,875 $55,884 $55,316 $52,086 $43,846 -2.68% -4.02% 3.76% 0.12% 1.90% 0.48% -1.60% 0.19% -1.62% -8.07% 8.93% 6.36% 4.90% 1.16% 6.12% 5.46% -3.20% -1.93% 1.27% -2.86% 0.44% 0.14% -5.24% -2.35% Above Average Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Educational Services Other Services (except Public Administration) Administrative and Support and Waste Management Retail Trade Unclassified Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Accommodation and Food Services Below Average $56,516 $44,451 $37,334 $31,905 $31,538 $27,899 $27,781 $25,712 $23,222 $18,216 $28,297 0.25% -4.90% 2.00% 0.00% 1.67% 0.75% -1.31% -0.99% 1.42% 2.69% 0.82% 3.80% -3.72% 0.79% 2.05% 5.86% 1.53% -1.26% -0.66% 0.00% 6.19% 2.35% -1.47% -5.49% 2.61% -1.01% -0.36% 0.37% -1.33% -1.15% 2.14% 0.98% 0.06% 36 Average Private Sector Employment 2004-2013 Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations HighWage JobCount LowWage JobCount Average WageHigh Average WageLow % HighWage of Total JobCount % LowWage of Total JobCount Ratio Low to High JobCount* Ratio High- to Low-Wage Average Pay** Year Total Private 2004 19,363 11,067 $45,490 8,144 $25,127 57.16% 42.06% 0.74 0.55 2005 20,150 11,558 $45,925 8,411 $25,375 57.36% 41.74% 0.73 0.55 2006 20,773 12,153 $47,964 8,476 $26,443 58.50% 40.80% 0.70 0.55 2007 21,255 12,377 $49,779 8,733 $26,967 58.23% 41.09% 0.71 0.54 2008 20,466 11,559 $51,620 8,765 $27,721 56.48% 42.83% 0.76 0.54 2009 20,081 11,515 $53,045 8,397 $27,538 57.34% 41.82% 0.73 0.52 2010 19,921 11,219 $53,895 8,567 $27,589 56.32% 43.00% 0.76 0.51 2011 20,103 11,177 $55,819 8,795 $27,412 55.60% 43.75% 0.79 0.49 2012 19,883 11,102 $55,749 8,633 $27,690 55.84% 43.42% 0.78 0.50 0.77 0.50 2013 20,253 11,323 $56,516 8,764 $28,297 55.91% 43.27% *For example: In 2004, there were .74 low-wage jobs for every one high-wage job. **For example: In 2004, low-wage jobs paid on average $0.55 per $1.00 earned in high-wage jobs. Putnam County Annual Average Job-Count Data Source: NYS Department of Labor 12,153 12,377 11,559 11,558 11,515 11,219 11,067 8,144 2004 8,411 8,476 2005 2006 8,733 8,765 8,397 2007 2008 Above Average Wages 2009 8,567 2010 11,177 8,795 2011 11,102 11,323 8,633 8,764 2012 2013 Below Average Wages 37 Putnam County Percent of All Private-Sector Jobs that Paid Average Wages Above and Below the Average Private-Sector Wage NYS Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations 57.2% 57.4% 42.1% 41.7% 2004 2005 58.5% 58.2% 56.5% 42.8% 40.8% 41.1% 2006 2007 2008 57.3% 41.8% 2009 % Above Average 56.3% 55.6% 55.8% 55.9% 43.0% 43.7% 43.4% 43.3% 2010 2011 2012 2013 % Below Average Putnam County Annual Average Job-Count Low-Wage Jobs to High-Wage Jobs 0.79 0.76 0.74 2004 0.77 2011 2012 2013 0.49 0.50 0.50 2011 2012 2013 0.73 0.73 2005 0.78 0.76 0.70 0.71 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Putnam County Average Low-Wage Wages Per One dollar of Average High-Wage Wages 0.55 0.55 0.55 0.54 0.54 0.52 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 0.51 2010 38 Average Private Sector Job-Count: High-Wage Sectors 2004-2007-2013. Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Sectors: Sorted from Highest to Lowest Average Annual Wage 2004 Percent Total Private Sector Job Count Percent Total Private Sector Job Count 2007 2013 Percent Total Private Sector Job Count Information 563 2.91% 536 2.52% 441 2.18% Finance and Insurance 910 4.70% 707 3.33% 629 3.11% Wholesale Trade 677 3.50% 875 4.12% 944 4.66% Manufacturing 1,388 7.17% 1670 7.86% 1,403 6.93% Health Care and Social Assistance Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 3,736 19.29% 4312 20.29% 4,427 21.86% 1,166 6.02% 1207 5.68% 1,217 6.01% Construction 2,275 11.75% 2719 12.79% 1,968 9.72% 289 1.49% 339 1.59% 294 1.45% 11,067 57.16% 12,377 58.23% 11,323 55.91% Transportation and Warehousing Above Average Putnam is the only county in the region to have more high-wage jobs than low-wage jobs. Like the rest of the region, however, the trend is toward the latter. Within the high-wage sectors, the jobcount declined in information, finance and insurance, and construction. Health care, wholesale trade, and professional services expanded, adding 691, 267 and 51 jobs, respectively. Manufacturing added jobs in both fabricated metal product manufacturing and computer and electronic manufacturing. Putnam County Health Care Sub-Sector Job-Count 4,312 4,427 3,736 1,582 1,322 1,474 521 659 1,150 1,044 1,178 810 Health Care and Social Assistance Ambulatory Health Care Services Nursing and Residential Care Facilities Social Assistance 62 621 623 624 2004 2007 2013 39 Putnam County Construction Sub-Sector Job-Count 2,719 2,275 2,042 1,968 1,628 498 528 1,478 424 150 149 65 Construction Construction of Buildings Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction Specialty Trade Contractors 23 236 237 238 2004 2007 2013 Putnam County Manufacturing Sub-Sector Job-Count 1,670 1,403 1,388 613 241 322 125 109 112 103 144 144 Manufacturing Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing Machinery Manufacturing Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing 31 332 333 334 2004 2007 2013 Putnam County Wholesale Trade Sub-Sector Job-Count 875 944 677 382 435 410 401 472 236 Wholesale Trade Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods 42 423 424 2004 2007 2013 40 Average Private Sector Job-Count: Low-Wage Sectors 2004-2007-2013. Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Sectors: Sorted from Highest to Lowest Average Annual Wage 2004 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Percent Total Private Sector Job Count Percent Total Private Sector Job Count 2007 Percent Total Private Sector Job Count 2013 316 1.63% 282 1.33% 201 0.99% Educational Services Other Services (except Public Administration) Administrative and Support and Waste Management 713 3.68% 730 3.43% 852 4.21% 1,323 6.83% 1,406 6.61% 1,323 6.53% 945 4.88% 1,121 5.27% 1,097 5.42% Retail Trade 2,619 13.53% 2,741 12.90% 2,802 13.83% 161 0.83% 155 0.73% 143 0.71% 762 3.94% 747 3.51% 697 3.44% Unclassified Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Accommodation and Food Services 59 0.30% 59 0.28% 67 0.33% 1,246 6.43% 1,492 7.02% 1,582 7.81% Below Average 8,144 42.06% 8,733 41.09% 8,764 43.27% For the period, the job-count expanded in accommodation and food services, retail trade, administrative and support and waste management, and education services. The job-count fell in real estate and arts and entertainment. Overall, low-wage sectors added 620 jobs compared to 256 in the high-wage sectors. Putnam County Accommodation Sub-Sector Job-Count 1,492 1,582 1,423 1,246 1,510 1,183 63 68 72 Accommodation and Food Services Accommodation Food Services and Drinking Places 72 721 722 2004 2007 2013 41 Putnam County Administrative Sub-Sector Job-Count 1,121 945 1,097 1,044 876 998 68 77 99 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Administrative and Support Services Waste Management and Remediation Services 56 561 562 2004 2007 2013 Relationship between Public and Private Job-Count 2004-2013 Putnam County Ratio of Private to Public Job-Count 2004-2013 Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Public Private 4,679 4,481 4,594 4,645 4,747 4,744 4,696 4,513 4,441 4,399 19,363 20,150 20,773 21,255 20,466 20,081 19,921 20,103 19,883 20,253 Ratio Private to Public 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.6 Putnam County Private vs. Public Employees 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 2011 2012 4.3 4.2 4.2 2009 2010 4.1 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2013 Ratio Private to Public 42 Putnam County Ratio of Private to Public Average Wages Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Public $48,866 $52,903 $54,965 $57,034 $59,788 $61,738 $63,211 $65,595 $66,728 $68,627 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Private $37,183 $37,797 $39,458 $40,627 $41,677 $42,673 $42,913 $43,738 $43,921 $44,614 Ratio 0.76 0.71 0.72 0.71 0.70 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 Over the 10-year period beginning in 2004, there has been a steady decline in the level of average annual wages paid in the private sector relative to the public sector. Public-sector wages have grown on average 3.85 percent per year compared to 2.05 percent growth in the private sector. This reflects the decline of high-wage jobs in the private sector in concert with systematic wages increases in the public sector. As of 2013, the average private sector job paid $0.65 for every $1.00 paid in the public sector. Putnam County Private vs. Public Employees 0.78 0.76 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.66 0.64 0.62 0.60 0.58 0.76 0.71 0.72 0.71 0.70 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 0.69 2009 0.68 2010 0.67 2011 0.66 2012 0.65 2013 43 Rockland County Job-Count CAGR Data Source: NYS Department of Labor, Author Calculations 0.60% 1.13% 1.73% 1.51% 0.34% 1.90% 0.75% -1.04% -2.39% Above Average Wages Total Private 2004-2013 2004-2007 Below Average Wage 2007-2013 Over the 10-year period beginning in 2004, the private-sector job-count increased at an annual rate of 0.60 percent. The job-count fell in five of the nine high-wage sectors and two of the 11 low-wage sectors. Overall, low-wage sectors grew at a faster pace than did high-wage sectors, resulting in a decline in high-wage jobs relative to low-wage jobs. Rockland County: CAGR by Sector Ranked from Highest Average Wage to Lowest Average Wage. Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations CAGR Job-Count Average Wages 2013 Management of Companies and Enterprises Utilities Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Manufacturing Finance and Insurance Wholesale Trade Information Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Construction High-Wage Sectors Health Care and Social Assistance Transportation and Warehousing Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Accommodation and Food Services Administrative and Support and Waste Mng. Educational Services Unclassified Retail Trade Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Other Services (except Public Administration) Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Low-Wage Sectors $181,761 $111,443 $85,102 $79,091 $76,935 $76,563 $74,832 $68,985 $59,365 2004-2007 2007-2013 2004-2013 4.33% -0.51% -3.30% -0.16% 5.09% 2.30% -2.59% 2.21% 5.56% -1.36% 2.54% -15.14% -3.68% -3.69% -1.38% -3.02% -0.39% -2.31% 0.50% 1.51% -11.36% -2.52% -0.85% -0.17% -2.88% 0.47% 0.25% $77,521 1.73% -2.39% -1.04% $44,073 $43,261 $41,872 $41,430 $39,037 $30,525 $29,144 $28,956 $27,427 $26,358 $18,862 1.03% -4.23% -1.60% 1.49% 5.09% 1.59% -5.28% -0.15% 0.41% 0.79% -0.38% 2.00% 3.93% 2.27% 3.61% 1.65% 1.59% -0.46% 0.93% 1.35% 1.76% -11.25% 1.68% 1.14% 0.96% 2.90% 2.79% 1.59% -2.10% 0.57% 1.04% 1.44% -7.76% $36,999 0.75% 1.90% 1.51% 44 Average Private Sector Employment 2004-2013 Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations HighWage JobCount LowWage JobCount Average WageHigh Average WageLow % HighWage of Total JobCount % LowWage Of Total JobCount Ratio Low to High JobCount* Ratio High- to Low- Wage Average Pay** Year Total Private 2004 91,006 34,735 $61,258 56,271 $28,834 38.17% 61.83% 1.62 0.47 2005 91,575 34,935 $62,734 56,640 $29,588 38.15% 61.85% 1.62 0.47 2006 92,090 35,079 $65,586 57,011 $30,483 38.09% 61.91% 1.63 0.46 2007 94,118 36,567 $67,129 57,551 $32,719 38.85% 61.15% 1.57 0.49 2008 93,872 35,466 $72,472 58,406 $32,815 37.78% 62.22% 1.65 0.45 2009 90,040 32,922 $71,466 57,118 $32,822 36.56% 63.44% 1.73 0.46 2010 90,607 31,665 $73,902 58,944 $35,643 34.95% 65.05% 1.86 0.48 2011 93,083 31,898 $76,083 61,185 $36,015 34.27% 65.73% 1.92 0.47 2012 94,179 31,651 $79,346 62,528 $37,451 33.61% 66.39% 1.98 0.47 2.04 0.48 2013 96,055 31,630 $77,521 64,425 $36,999 32.93% 67.07% *For example: In 2004, there were 1.62 low-wage jobs for every one high-wage job. **For example: In 2004, low-wage jobs paid on average $0.47 per $1.00 earned in high-wage jobs. Rockland County Annual Average Job-Count Data Source: NYS Department of Labor 61,185 56,271 56,640 57,011 34,735 34,935 35,079 2004 2005 57,551 36,567 58,406 57,118 2007 64,425 58,944 35,466 32,922 2006 62,528 2008 Above Average Wages 2009 31,665 31,898 31,651 31,630 2010 2011 2012 2013 Below Average Wages 45 Rockland County Percent of All Private-Sector Jobs that Paid Average Wages Above and Below the Average Private-Sector Wage NYS Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations 61.8% 61.9% 61.9% 61.1% 38.2% 38.1% 38.1% 38.9% 2004 2005 2006 2007 62.2% 63.4% 37.8% 36.6% 2008 2009 % Above Average 65.1% 65.7% 66.4% 67.1% 34.9% 34.3% 2011 33.6% 2012 32.9% 2013 2010 % Below Average Rockland County Annual Average Job-Count: Low-Wage Jobs to High-Wage Jobs 2.04 1.98 1.92 1.86 1.73 1.65 1.62 1.62 1.63 2004 2005 2006 1.57 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0.47 0.47 2011 2012 2013 Rockland County Average Low-Wage Wages Per One Dollar of Average High-Wage Wages 0.49 0.47 0.48 0.47 0.46 0.48 0.46 0.45 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 46 Average Private Sector Job-Count: High-Wage Sectors 2004-2007-2013 Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Sectors: Sorted from Highest to Lowest Average Annual Wage Management of Companies and Enterprises 2004 Percent Total Private Sector JobCount 2007 Percent Total Private Sector Job-Count 2013 Percent Total Private Sector JobCount 973 1.07% 1,105 1.17% 1,018 1.06% 927 1.02% 913 0.97% 1,061 1.10% 459 0.50% 415 0.44% 155 0.16% 11,432 12.56% 11,377 12.09% 9,084 9.46% Finance and Insurance 2,710 2.98% 3,145 3.34% 2,510 2.61% Wholesale Trade 4,530 4.98% 4,850 5.15% 4,463 4.65% Information Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 3,090 3.40% 2,856 3.03% 2,376 2.47% 5,346 5.87% 5,709 6.07% 5,576 5.81% Construction 5,268 5.79% 6,197 6.58% 5,387 5.61% 34,735 38.17% 36,567 38.85% 31,630 32.93% Utilities Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Manufacturing Above Average Over the period, high-wage jobs fell from 38.17 percent of total private-sector employment to 32.93 percent. The job-count fell 3,105. Of this total, the most significant decline occurred in manufacturing at 75.60 percent of all jobs lost. The job-count in chemical manufacturing fell 2,165. In contrast to trend, food manufacturing advanced throughout the recessionary period, increasing 86.80 percent overall. Professional services and utilities advanced 230 and 134, respectively. Rockland is the only county in the region to witness a rebound in the construction sector, with the job-count in heavy and civil engineering rising above both the 2004 and 2007 levels. The decline in finance and insurance was spread evenly across the three sub-sectors, while the decline in the information sector was highly concentrated in the high-wage telecommunications sub-sector. Rockland County Manufacturing Sub-Sector Job-Count 11,377 11,432 9,084 5,788 5,770 3,623 561 723 1,048 785 722 721 Manufacturing Food Manufacturing Chemical Manufacturing 31 311 325 2004 2007 809 800 633 Plastics and Rubber Fabricated Metal Products Manufacturing Product Manufacturing 326 332 2013 47 Rockland County Finance Sub-Sector Job-Count 2,710 3,145 2,510 1,252 1,343 1,160 1,161 294 Finance and Insurance 337 522 Insurance Carriers and Related Activities 523 2004 2007 1,076 265 Credit Intermediation and Securities, Commodity Related Activities Contracts, and Other Financial Investments and Related Activities 52 1,463 524 2013 Rockland County Information Sub-Sector Job-Count 3,090 2,856 2,376 592 709 1,622 1,285 1,022 376 404 428 498 209 112 262 Information Publishing Industries (except Internet) Telecommunications Data Processing, Hosting, and Related Services Other Information Services 51 511 517 518 519 2004 2007 2013 Rockland County Construction Sub-Sector Job-Count 6,197 5,387 5,268 3,753 1,197 1,552 1,043 318 352 4,293 3,750 594 Construction Construction of Buildings Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction Specialty Trade Contractors 23 236 237 238 2004 2007 2013 48 Average Private Sector Job-Count: Low-Wage Sectors 2004-2007-2013. Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations 2007 18,073 2,107 1,553 6,767 Percent Total Private Sector JobCount 19.20% 2.24% 1.65% 7.19% 2013 20,355 2,656 1,777 8,371 Percent Total Private Sector JobCount 21.19% 2.77% 1.85% 8.71% 4.69% 3.49% 0.66% 15.74% 1.42% 4,955 3,329 509 14,262 1,308 5.26% 3.54% 0.54% 15.15% 1.39% 5,467 3,660 495 15,075 1,418 5.69% 3.81% 0.52% 15.69% 1.48% 4,493 4.94% 4,600 4.89% 5,108 5.32% 89 56,271 0.10% 61.83% 88 57,551 0.09% 61.15% 43 64,425 0.04% 67.07% Sectors: Sorted from Highest to Lowest Average Annual Wage Health Care and Social Assistance Transportation and Warehousing Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Accommodation and Food Services Administrative and Support and Waste Management Educational Services Unclassified Retail Trade Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Other Services (except Public Administration) Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Below Average 2004 17,525 2,399 1,630 6,474 Percent Total Private Sector JobCount 19.26% 2.64% 1.79% 7.11% 4,269 3,175 599 14,326 1,292 Over the period, the job-count in the low-wage industries advanced 8,154 with the greatest number of jobs added in health care, followed by accommodation and food services, and administration and support and waste management. Collectively these three sectors added 5,925 jobs, 72.66 percent of the total job gain. Within the health care sector, ambulatory and health services added 1,369 jobs. As of 2013, the average annual wage in this sub-sector was $53,898, well above the private-sector average. If this current trend continues, health care will move from a low-wage to a high wage industry. Given its consistent improvement and relative importance to overall job growth, this move would have a significant and positive impact on the county’s economy. Rockland County Health Care Sub-Sector Job-Count 20,355 17,525 18,073 6,306 6,598 7,675 4,682 4,751 5,527 3,522 3,581 4,154 Health Care and Social Assistance Ambulatory Health Care Services Nursing and Residential Care Facilities Social Assistance 62 621 623 624 2004 2007 2013 49 Rockland County Administrative Sub-Sector Job-Count 4,269 4,955 5,467 3,891 4,190 4,842 378 766 625 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Administrative and Support Services Waste Management and Remediation Services 56 561 562 2004 2007 2013 Rockland County Accommodation and Food Services Sub-Sector Job Count 8,371 6,474 6,767 5,709 5,964 6,692 1,678 765 803 Accommodation and Food Services Accommodation Food Services and Drinking Places 72 721 722 2004 2007 2013 Rockland County Ratio of Private to Public Job-Count 2004-2013 Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Public 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20,147 20,468 21,234 21,475 22,002 21,771 21,386 20,707 20,257 19,887 Private 91,006 91,575 92,090 94,118 93,872 90,040 90,607 93,083 94,179 96,055 Ratio Private to Public 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.6 4.8 50 Relationship Between Public and Private Job-Count 2004-2013 Post-Great Recession, the number of private-sector jobs has risen relative to the public sector. As of 2013, there were 4.8 private-sector jobs for every one public-sector job, compared to 4:1 at the height of the downturn. This increase is directly attributable to the contraction in the public sector job-count. Overall, public-sector jobs have declined on average 0.14 percent relative to a 0.60 percent increase in the private sector. Rockland County Private vs. Public Employees 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ratio Private to Public Rockland County Ratio of Private to Public Average Wages Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Public $45,903 $46,768 $49,592 $52,198 $53,431 $54,309 $56,950 $58,513 $60,303 $64,760 Private $41,209 $42,233 $43,854 $46,088 $47,797 $46,952 $49,014 $49,746 $51,531 $50,342 Ratio 0.90 0.90 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.86 0.86 0.85 0.85 0.78 Over the 10-year period beginning in 2004, there has been a steady decline in the level of average annual wages paid in the private sector relative to the public sector. Public-sector wages have grown on average 3.90 percent per year compared to a 2.25 percent increase in the private sector. This reflects the steady decline of high-wage jobs in the private sector in concert with systematic wage increases in the public sector. As of 2013, the average private-sector job paid $0.78 for every $1.00 51 paid in the public sector, compared to $0.90 for every dollar in 2004. Rockland County Private vs. Public Employees 0.95 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.86 0.86 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.78 0.80 0.75 0.70 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Ratio Private to Public 52 Ulster County Job-Count CAGR Data Source: NYS Department of Labor, Author Calculations 0.46% 0.55% 0.38% -0.16% -0.51% -0.77% -1.28% -1.37% -2.10% Total Private Above Average Wages 2004-2013 2004-2007 Below Average Wage 2007-2013 Over the 10-year period beginning in 2004, the private-sector job-count declined at an annual rate of 0.77 percent. The job-count fell in eight of the 13 high-wage sectors and three of the seven low-wage sectors. Overall, the job-count in high-wage sectors declined 1.28 percent per annum, and fell 0.16 percent per year in the low-wage sectors. Ulster County: CAGR by Sector Ranked from Highest Average Wage to Lowest Average Wage Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Utilities Finance and Insurance Management of Companies and Enterprises Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Wholesale Trade Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Manufacturing Construction Health Care and Social Assistance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Information Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Unclassified Above Average Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Transportation and Warehousing Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Educational Services Retail Trade Other Services (except Public Administration) Accommodation and Food Services Below Average Average Wages 2013 $94,477 $58,091 $54,536 2004-2007 CAGR Job-Count 2007-2013 2004-2013 -1.52% -3.92% 5.51% -3.58% 0.98% 15.30% -0.47% -6.28% 0.93% $49,460 $48,971 -5.57% 0.17% -0.72% -0.74% -7.90% 0.63% $46,964 $45,083 $44,520 $37,656 $37,046 $36,662 -1.12% -3.59% -2.73% 0.75% 1.48% -7.08% -2.65% -3.13% 1.60% 0.87% 4.75% -18.35% -0.34% -3.81% -4.83% 0.68% -0.11% -0.87% $34,504 $31,136 $42,304 $35,538 $30,720 $30,177 $27,460 $27,295 0.11% -8.03% -1.28% 2.55% -0.33% 0.20% 0.69% -0.64% 15.78% -13.01% 0.38% 6.16% 0.69% -0.04% 4.80% 0.81% -6.91% -5.43% -2.10% 0.79% -0.84% 0.32% -1.30% -1.35% $26,725 $17,825 $24,993 -1.24% 0.46% -0.16% -1.73% -0.07% 0.55% -0.99% 0.72% -0.51% 53 Average Private Sector Employment 2004-2013 Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations HighWage JobCount LowWage JobCount Average WageHigh % HighWage of Total JobCount Average WageLow % LowWage Of Total JobCount Ratio Low to High JobCount* Ratio High- to LowWage Average Pay** Year Total Private 2004 47,367 26,114 $34,296 21,253 $20,330 55.13% 44.87% 0.81 0.59 2005 47,426 26,072 $35,650 21,354 $20,598 54.97% 45.03% 0.82 0.58 2006 48,109 26,617 $37,690 21,492 $21,627 55.33% 44.67% 0.81 0.57 2007 48,017 26,410 $39,069 21,607 $22,413 55.00% 45.00% 0.82 0.57 2008 46,047 24,440 $39,575 21,607 $23,035 53.08% 46.92% 0.88 0.58 2009 44,282 23,405 $39,938 20,877 $23,022 52.85% 47.15% 0.89 0.58 2010 44,078 23,372 $40,321 20,706 $23,334 53.02% 46.98% 0.89 0.58 2011 43,629 23,040 $41,090 20,589 $24,123 52.81% 47.19% 0.89 0.59 2012 43,705 22,930 $41,608 20,775 $24,672 52.47% 47.53% 0.91 0.59 0.90 0.59 2013 44,199 23,250 $42,304 20,949 $24,993 52.60% 47.40% *For example: In 2004, there were .82 low-wage jobs for every one high-wage job. **For example: In 2004, low-wage jobs paid on average $0.59 per $1.00 earned in high-wage jobs. Ulster County Annual Average Job-Count Data Source: NYS Department of Labor 26,617 26,114 26,072 26,410 24,440 23,405 21,253 2004 21,354 2005 21,492 2006 21,607 2007 23,372 23,040 22,930 23,250 21,607 2008 Above Average Wages 20,877 20,706 20,589 20,775 20,949 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Below Average Wages 54 Ulster County Percent of All Private-Sector Jobs that Paid Average Wages Above and Below the Average Private-Sector Wage NYS Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations 55.1% 55.0% 55.3% 44.9% 45.0% 44.7% 2004 2005 2006 55.0% 53.1% 52.9% 53.0% 52.8% 52.5% 52.6% 46.9% 47.1% 47.0% 47.2% 47.5% 47.4% 2009 2010 2011 % Below Average 2012 2013 45.0% 2007 2008 % Above Average Ulster County Annual Average Job-Count: Low-Wage Jobs to High-Wage Jobs 0.81 0.82 2004 2005 0.81 2006 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.89 2008 2009 2010 2011 0.91 0.90 2012 2013 0.82 2007 Ulster County Average Low-Wage Wages Per One Dollar of Average High-Wage Wages 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.58 2004 2005 0.58 0.57 0.57 2006 2007 0.58 2008 2009 0.59 0.58 2010 2011 2012 2013 55 Ulster County Average Private Sector Job-Count: High-Wage Sectors 2004-2007-2013 Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Utilities Finance and Insurance Management of Companies and Enterprises Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Wholesale Trade Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Manufacturing Construction Health Care and Social Assistance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Information Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Unclassified Above Average 2007 216 2,040 Percent Total Private Sector Job-Count 0.45% 4.25% 2013 210 1,382 Percent Total Private Sector JobCount 0.48% 3.13% 0.58% 420 0.87% 444 1.00% 139 1,358 0.29% 2.87% 136 1,328 0.28% 2.77% 83 1,379 0.19% 3.12% 1,707 4,673 2,527 8,275 670 1,863 3.60% 9.87% 5.33% 17.47% 1.41% 3.93% 1,575 4,248 2,650 8,493 770 1,014 3.28% 8.85% 5.52% 17.69% 1.60% 2.11% 1,543 3,364 1,969 8,848 765 962 3.49% 7.61% 4.45% 20.02% 1.73% 2.18% 2,166 240 26,114 4.57% 0.51% 55.13% 3,362 158 26,410 7.00% 0.33% 55.00% 2,188 113 23,250 4.95% 0.26% 52.60% 2004 241 1,981 Percent Total Private Sector JobCount 0.51% 4.18% 274 Over the period, there has been a noticeable shift away from high-wage towards low-wage jobs. Overall, there are 2,864 fewer high-wage jobs compared to 2004, and 3,160 fewer compared to 2007. As is typical in the region, the largest job loss occurred in manufacturing at 1,309, followed by information and finance and insurance at 901 and 599, respectively. Health care and social assistance added 573 positions. Of this total, ambulatory and health care services added the most jobs at 336; the job-count in the hospital sub-sector declined 187. Ulster County Health Care Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 8,848 8,275 8,493 3,268 2,932 3,085 2,128 2,054 2,557 1,687 1,752 1,500 Health Care and Social Ambulatory Health Care Assistance Services 62 621 2004 1,529 1,602 1,524 Hospitals Nursing and Residential Care Facilities Social Assistance 622 623 624 2007 2013 56 Ulster County Manufacturing Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 4,673 4,248 3,364 68 60 169 673 874 866 332 310 109 47 32 61 Manufacturing Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing Machinery Manufacturing Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing Transportation Equipment Manufacturing 31 312 333 334 336 2004 2007 2013 Ulster County Administrative Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 3,362 3,211 2,188 2,166 2,067 2,017 149 Administrative and Support and Waste Administrative and Support Services Management and Remediation Services 56 2007 122 Waste Management and Remediation Services 561 2004 151 562 2013 Ulster County Information Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 1,863 1,014 962 266 294 126 100 96 88 255 243 195 121 134 220 Information Publishing Industries (except Internet) Motion Picture and Sound Recording Industries Telecommunications Other Information Services 51 511 512 517 519 2004 2007 2013 57 Ulster County Finance and Insurance Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 1,981 2,040 1,382 1,069 1,210 842 772 66 Finance and Insurance 103 Credit Intermediation and Securities, Commodity Related Activities Contracts, and Other Financial Investments and Related Activities 52 522 2007 486 Insurance Carriers and Related Activities 523 2004 720 122 524 2013 Ulster County Average Private Sector Job-Count: Low-Wage Sectors 2004-2007-2013. Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations 2004 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Percent Total Private Sector Job Count 2007 Percent Total Private Sector Job Count 2013 Percent Total Private Sector Job Count 636 1.34% 761 1.58% 798 1.81% 1,437 3.03% 1,467 3.06% 1,395 3.16% 921 1.94% 920 1.92% 938 2.12% 688 1.45% 792 1.65% 732 1.66% Retail Trade Other Services (except Public Administration) 9,128 19.27% 9,351 19.47% 8,619 19.50% 2,234 4.72% 2,120 4.42% 1,997 4.52% Accommodation and Food Services 6,209 13.11% 6,196 12.90% 6,470 14.64% 21,253 44.87% 21,607 45.00% 20,949 47.40% Transportation and Warehousing Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Educational Services Below Average For the period, the job-count expanded in the traditional tourist industries — arts and accommodation and food services — and fell in the retail trade sector. Job growth across the balance of the sectors was relatively flat. Overall, low-wage sectors lost 304 jobs relative to 2004 and 658 relative to 2007. 58 Ulster County Accommodation and Food Sub-Sector Job-Count 6,209 6,196 6,470 4,157 2,053 2,052 4,144 4,517 1,953 Accommodation and Food Services Accommodation Food Services and Drinking Places 72 721 722 2004 2007 2013 Ulster County Arts Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 636 761 798 441 135 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 71 174 518 458 286 59 69 54 Performing Arts, Spectator Museums, Historical Sites, Sports, and Related Industries and Similar Institutions 711 Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries 712 2004 2007 713 2013 Ulster County Retail Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 9,128 9,351 8,619 1,162 978 872 591 595 612 531 532 539 Retail Trade Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers Health and Personal Care Stores Nonstore Retailers 44 441 446 454 2004 2007 2013 59 Relationship between Public and Private Job-Count 2004-2013 Ulster County Ratio of Private to Public Job-Count 2004-2013 Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Public Private 14,412 14,252 14,236 14,229 14,335 14,234 14,093 13,698 13,336 13,008 47,367 47,426 48,109 48,017 46,047 44,282 44,078 43,629 43,705 44,199 Ratio Private to Public 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 Ulster County Ratio Private vs. Public Employees 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 3.2 3.1 3.1 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Post-Great Recession, the number of private-sector jobs has risen relative to the public sector. As of 2013, there were 3.4 private-sector jobs for every one in the public sector, compared to 3.2:1 at the height of the downturn. This increase is directly attributable to the contraction in the public sector job-count. Overall, public-sector jobs have declined on average 0.98 percent relative to a 0.52 percent decline in the private sector. 60 Ulster County Ratio of Private to Public Average Wages Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Public Private Ratio 2004 $34,230 $28,030 0.82 2005 $37,618 $28,873 0.77 2006 $44,994 $30,514 0.68 2007 $46,578 $31,574 0.68 2008 $49,148 $31,814 0.65 2009 $50,155 $31,963 0.64 2010 $51,767 $32,341 0.62 2011 $52,649 $33,083 0.63 2012 $54,744 $33,558 0.61 2013 $55,294 $34,099 0.62 Over the 10-year period beginning in 2004, there has been a steady decline in the level of average annual wages paid in the private sector relative to the public sector. Public-sector wages have grown on average 5.47 percent per year, compared to 2.20 percent annual growth in the private sector. This reflects the steady decline of high-wage jobs in the private sector in concert with systematic wage increases in the public sector. As of 2013, the average private-sector job paid $0.62 for every $1.00 paid in the public sector, compared to $0.82 in 2004. Ulster County Ratio Private vs. Public Employees 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.82 0.77 0.68 2004 2005 2006 0.68 2007 0.65 0.64 0.62 0.63 0.61 0.62 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 61 Westchester County Job-Count CAGR Data Source: NYS Department of Labor, Author Calculations 1.31% 1.01% 0.67% 0.36% 0.31% 0.08% -0.38% -1.38% -2.22% Above Average Wages Total Private 2004-2013 2004-2007 Below Average Wages 2007-2013 Over the 10-year period beginning in 2004, the private-sector job-count grew at an annual rate of .08 percent. The job-count fell in five of the eight high-wage sectors and seven of the 12 low-wage sectors. Overall, the job-count increased 0.67 percent each year. Westchester County: CAGR by Sector Ranked from Highest Average Wage to Lowest Average Wage Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations CAGR Job-Count Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Management of Companies and Enterprises Finance and Insurance Utilities Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Information High-Wage Sectors Construction Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Health Care and Social Assistance Transportation and Warehousing Educational Services Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Unclassified Other Services (except Public Administration) Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services Low-Wage Sectors Average Wages 2013 $209,070 $193,994 $149,147 $122,951 $122,111 $104,210 $85,669 $83,170 $122,712 $67,616 $63,175 $53,719 $51,680 $48,991 $45,451 $42,754 $42,268 $35,236 $34,103 $32,593 $23,743 $44,183 2004-2007 2007-2013 2004-2013 51.83% 3.66% 3.01% 0.16% 0.54% -1.89% -0.06% -2.84% 0.31% 4.37% 0.59% 2.20% 1.14% 2.34% 3.78% -2.54% -1.20% -1.89% -2.19% 0.41% -5.01% -3.08% -4.39% -2.22% -3.64% -0.90% 0.80% -0.66% 1.26% -2.50% 12.98% 0.39% -0.28% -1.41% 0.45% -3.98% -2.09% -3.88% -1.38% -1.04% -0.41% 1.26% -0.07% 1.62% -0.45% -3.04% -6.94% 2.06% -3.02% 1.38% 1.21% 1.31% 0.79% -3.18% 0.04% 1.37% -0.07% 4.20% 0.36% -0.50% -4.45% 0.71% -0.11% 0.41% 3.19% 0.67% 62 Average Private Sector Employment 2004-2013 Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations HighWage JobCount Average WageHigh LowWage JobCount Average WageLow % HighWage of Total JobCount % LowWage of Total JobCount Ratio Low to High JobCount* Ratio High- to LowWage Average Pay** Year Total Private 2004 345,537 105,207 $93,109 240,330 $36,057 30.45% 69.55% 2.28 0.39 2005 347,540 106,106 $95,419 241,434 $38,212 30.53% 69.47% 2.28 0.40 2006 349,159 106,130 $102,338 243,029 $39,454 30.40% 69.60% 2.29 0.39 2007 356,096 106,199 $111,840 249,897 $40,858 29.82% 70.18% 2.35 0.37 2008 355,153 103,923 $110,034 251,230 $42,222 29.26% 70.74% 2.42 0.38 2009 336,938 96,395 $106,419 240,543 $41,985 28.61% 71.39% 2.50 0.39 2010 335,422 93,804 $116,043 241,618 $42,257 27.97% 72.03% 2.58 0.36 2011 342,245 93,857 $117,934 248,388 $42,949 27.42% 72.58% 2.65 0.36 2012 345,429 93,925 $123,639 251,505 $43,470 27.19% 72.81% 2.68 0.35 2013 348,136 92,809 $122,712 255,330 $44,183 26.66% 73.34% 2.75 0.36 *For example: In 2004, there were 2.28 low-wage jobs for every one high-wage job. **For example: In 2004, low-wage jobs paid on average $0.39 per $1.00 earned in high-wage jobs. Westchester County Annual Average Job-Count Data Source: NYS Department of Labor 241,434 240,330 105,207 2004 106,106 2005 243,029 106,130 2006 249,897 251,230 106,199 103,923 2007 2008 Above Average Wages 240,543 241,618 248,388 251,505 255,330 96,395 93,804 93,857 93,925 92,809 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Below Average Wages 63 Westchester County Percent of All Private-Sector Jobs that Paid Average Wages Above and Below the Average Private-Sector Wage NYS Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations 85.0% 75.0% 69.6% 69.5% 69.6% 70.2% 70.7% 71.4% 72.0% 72.6% 72.8% 73.3% 30.4% 30.5% 30.4% 29.8% 29.3% 28.6% 28.0% 27.4% 27.2% 26.7% 2004 2005 2006 2009 2010 Below Average 2011 2012 2013 65.0% 55.0% 45.0% 35.0% 25.0% 15.0% 2007 2008 Above Average Westchester County Annual Average Job-Count Low-Wage Jobs to High-Wage Jobs 2.28 2.28 2.29 2004 2005 2006 2.50 2.58 2.68 2.75 2.42 2.65 2.35 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Westchester County Average Low-Wage Wages Per One Dollar of Average High-Wage Wages 2.84 2.74 2005 2010 2011 2.78 2.53 2.50 2004 2.75 2.61 2.59 2.58 2.75 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012 2013 64 Average Private Sector Job-Count: High-Wage Sectors 2004-2007-2013. Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Sectors: Sorted from Highest to Lowest Average Annual Wage Percent Total Private Sector Job-Count 2004 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Management of Companies and Enterprises Finance and Insurance Percent Total Private Sector Job-Count 2007 Percent Total Private Sector Job-Count 2013 2 0.00% 7 0.00% 6 0.00% 8,964 2.59% 9,986 2.80% 9,287 2.67% 19,062 5.52% 20,835 5.85% 18,586 5.34% Utilities Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 3,141 0.91% 3,156 0.89% 2,764 0.79% 24,299 7.03% 24,695 6.93% 25,312 7.27% Manufacturing 19,393 5.61% 18,315 5.14% 13,452 3.86% Wholesale Trade 16,903 4.89% 16,874 4.74% 13,983 4.02% Information 13,443 3.89% 12,331 3.46% 9,419 2.71% 105,207 30.45% 106,199 29.82% 92,809 26.66% Above Average Over the period, the number of high-wage jobs has declined 12,398. Of this total, manufacturing lost 5,941 jobs, information 4,024, and wholesale trade 2,920. As was the case in Dutchess, the largest decline in manufacturing employment occurred in the computer and electronic product sub-sector at 3,362. Similar to Rockland, the job-count in food manufacturing increased. Job losses in both warehousing and information were widespread, impacting all sub-sectors. Westchester County Manufacturing Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 19,39318,315 13,452 6,665 5,469 3,403 1,866 1,825 2,095 1,819 1,863 1,618 Manufacturing Food Manufacturing Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing 31 311 332 334 2004 2007 2013 65 Westchester County Finance and Insurance Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 19,062 20,835 18,586 8,076 7,111 5,995 Finance and Insurance Credit Intermediation and Related Activities 52 522 3,439 5,568 4,809 7,422 8,007 Securities, Commodity Insurance Carriers and Related Contracts, and Other Financial Activities Investments and Related Activities 523 2004 7,755 2007 524 2013 Westchester County Wholesale Trade Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 16,903 16,874 13,983 8,563 8,973 6,436 6,350 5,587 6,060 1,990 2,314 1,486 Wholesale Trade Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents and Brokers 42 423 424 425 2004 2007 2013 Westchester County Information Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 13,443 12,331 9,419 4,406 4,044 4,376 3,987 3,199 4,376 2,587 2,245 1,057 Information Publishing Industries (except Internet) Telecommunications Data Processing, Hosting, and Related Services 51 511 517 518 2004 2007 2013 66 Average Private Sector Job-Count: Low-Wage Sectors 2004-2007-2013. Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Percent Total Private Sector JobCount Sectors: Sorted from Highest to Lowest Average Annual Wage 2004 Construction 24,120 6.98% 2007 Percent Total Private Sector Job-Count 27,426 7.70% 2013 21,960 Percent Total Private Sector JobCount 6.31% Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 9,564 2.77% 9,733 2.73% 9,219 2.65% Health Care and Social Assistance 59,154 17.12% 63,141 17.73% 66,228 19.02% Transportation and Warehousing 10,397 3.01% 10,758 3.02% 10,336 2.97% Educational Services 13,552 3.92% 14,524 4.08% 15,658 4.50% 374 0.11% 418 0.12% 359 0.10% 23,240 6.73% 21,187 5.95% 22,213 6.38% 1,722 0.50% 1,388 0.39% 1,143 0.33% 18,818 5.45% 20,003 5.62% 20,048 5.76% 9,875 2.86% 9,008 2.53% 9,775 2.81% Retail Trade 47,880 13.86% 49,885 14.01% 49,685 14.27% Accommodation and Food Services 21,634 6.26% 22,426 6.30% 28,706 8.25% 240,330 69.55% 249,897 70.18% 255,330 73.34% Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services Unclassified Other Services (except Public Administration) Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Below Average Since 2004, the number of low-wage jobs increased by 15,000. Health care, accommodation and food services, and retail trade added the most jobs at 7,074, 7,072 and 1,805, respectively. As is the case across the region, the largest increase in health care occurred in the ambulatory and health care subsector. As of 2013, the average wage in this sub-sector was $68,475, the highest average wage within the health care sector. Employment in the construction industries continues to struggle, remaining well below pre-recessionary levels. Westchester County Health Care and Social Assistance Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 66,228 59,154 63,141 24,846 19,942 22,237 14,801 14,804 14,740 15,268 16,011 15,766 Health Care and Social Assistance Ambulatory Health Care Services Hospitals Nursing and Residential Care Facilities 62 621 622 623 2004 2007 2013 67 Westchester County Retail Trade Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 47,880 49,885 49,685 10,593 11,151 12,790 6,336 6,988 6,247 5,390 8,251 6,911 Retail Trade Food and Beverage Stores Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores General Merchandise Stores 44 445 448 452 2004 2007 2013 Westchester County Accommodation and Food Service Sub-Sector Job Count 28,706 25,878 22,426 21,634 18,952 2,682 2,701 19,725 2,828 Accommodation and Food Services Accommodation Food Services and Drinking Places 72 721 722 2004 2007 2013 Westchester County Construction Select Sub-Sector Job-Count 24,120 27,426 21,960 15,781 5,502 6,105 5,242 18,591 14,489 2,837 2,731 2,230 Construction Construction of Buildings Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction Specialty Trade Contractors 23 236 237 238 2004 2007 2013 68 Westchester County Ratio of Private to Public Job-Count Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculation Ratio Private Public Private to Public 2004 63,913 345,537 5.4 2005 63,293 347,540 5.5 2006 63,375 349,159 5.5 2007 64,501 356,096 5.5 2008 64,954 355,153 5.5 2009 64,666 336,938 5.2 2010 63,497 335,422 5.3 2011 61,207 342,245 5.6 2012 58,749 345,429 5.9 2013 57,858 348,136 6.0 Post-Great Recession, the number of private-sector jobs has risen relative to the public sector. As of 2013, there were 6.0 private-sector jobs for every one public-sector job — the highest ratio in the region — compared to 5.2:1 at the height of the downturn. This increase is directly attributable to the contraction in the public sector job-count. Overall, public-sector jobs have declined on average 0.98 percent relative to a 0.52 percent decline in the private sector. Westchester County Ratio of Private to Public Job-Count 6.2 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.0 4.8 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 69 Westchester County Ratio of Private to Public Average Wages Data Source: New York State Department of Labor QCEW Series, Author Calculations Public Private Ratio 2004 $52,626 $53,428 1.02 2005 $55,475 $55,678 1.00 2006 $59,155 $58,568 0.99 2007 $59,891 $62,027 1.04 2008 $63,914 $62,065 0.97 2009 $66,729 $60,419 0.91 2010 $69,107 $62,892 0.91 2011 $70,203 $63,513 0.90 2012 $73,172 $65,268 0.89 2013 $74,820 $65,118 0.87 Over the 10-year period beginning in 2004, there has been a steady decline in the level of average annual wages paid in the private sector relative to the public sector. Public-sector wages have grown on average 3.99 percent per year compared to a 2.22 percent yearly increase in the private sector. This reflects the steady decline of high-wage jobs in the private sector in concert with systematic wage increases in the public sector. As of 2013, the average private-sector job paid $0.87 for every $1.00 paid in the public sector compared to $1.02 in 2004. Westchester County Ratio of Private to Public Job-Count 1.05 1.04 1.02 1.00 1.00 0.99 0.97 0.95 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.80 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 70