Nangai (Ray) Yang
Office of Institutional Research
University of Northern Iowa
The Environmental Scan Study @
Arizona State University West
 External conditions
 Demographic
 Economic
 Educational
 Environmental
 Political
 Social
 Technological
The Environmental Scan Study @
Arizona State University West
 External
 Demographic





Global
The U. S.
Arizona
Metropolitan Phoenix
The university community
The Environmental Scan Study @
Arizona State University West
 Internal conditions
 Planning
 Enrollment
 Budget
 Faculty and staff
 Faculty scholarship
Ray’s Learning Project
 Table of contents:
 Introduction to UNI and environmental scanning
 Demographics
 Economic performance indicators
 State support of higher education
 Political landscape
 UNI and its peer institutions
Environmental Scanning
 Definition: “A kind of radar to scan the world
systematically and signal the new, the unexpected,
the major and the minor" (Brown & Weiner, 1985,
p. ix)
 Purpose: To enable decision makers to understand
the external environment and the
interconnections of its various sectors and to
translate this understanding into the institution's
planning and decision making processes (Aguilar,
1967)
Environmental Scanning
 Objectives for environmental scanning (Coates,
1985):
 Detecting scientific, technical, economic, social,
and political trends and events important to the
institution
 Defining the potential threats, opportunities, or
changes for the institution implied by those trends
and events
 Promoting a future orientation in the thinking of
management and staff
 Alerting management and staff to trends that are
converging, diverging, speeding up, slowing down,
or interacting
Demographic
 Historical data about population, age groups,
gender, and ethnicity as well as population
projections and estimates at the national level
 Population composition and projections for Iowa
and its neighboring states
 Iowa’s county rankings in terms of current total
population and population increase
Population – United States
Sex Composition 2005
50.7%
Male
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey
49.3%
Female
Population – United States
Ethnic Composition 2005
14%
86%
Hispanic
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey
Non-Hispanic
Population – United States
Selected Age Cohorts 2005
12%
7%
18%
63%
Persons Under 5
Persons 6-18
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 American Community Survey
Persons 19-64
Persons 65 and Over
Population – Counties of Iowa
Iowa's Top 22 Counties by Population 2006
County
Number
County
Number
Polk
408,888
Cerro Gordo
44,384
Linn
201,853
Warren
43,926
Scott
162,621
Muscatine
42,883
Black Hawk
126,106
Des Moines
40,885
Johnson
118,038
Marshall
39,555
Woodbury
102,972
Webster
38,960
Dubuque
92,384
Jasper
37,409
Pottawattamie
90,218
Lee
36,338
Story
80,145
Wapello
36,010
Dallas
54,525
Marion
32,987
Clinton
49,782
Sioux
32,525
Source: Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimate Programs
Population – Counties of Iowa
Iowa's Top 18 Counties by % Population Increase 2006
County
%
County
%
Dallas
33.80
Dubuque
3.63
Madison
10.90
Dickinson
3.04
Polk
9.15
Iowa
2.99
Warren
8.00
Sioux
2.96
Mills
7.20
Marion
2.92
Benton
6.53
Pottawattamie
2.87
Johnson
6.33
Muscatine
2.78
Linn
5.30
Scott
2.49
Washington
4.16
Bremer
2.19
Source: Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimate Programs
Economic Performance Indicators
 Real GDP growth in current dollars, Iowa and
neighboring states’ ranking in terms of real
GDP growth
 Personal income growth rate for the United
States, Iowa, and its neighboring states
 Top ranking Iowa counties in terms of personal
income growth
 Consumer price index variations
 Dow Jones industrial index fluctuations
 Job prospects for the nation, Iowa, and its
neighboring states
GDP – Iowa and Its Neighboring States
Real GDP Growth Rate 1997 - 2004, 2005
3.6%
2.7%
1.8%
0.9%
0.0%
Missouri
Nebraska
Illinois
% Growth 2005
Iowa
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Wisconsin
Minnesota
South Dakota
% Growth 97-04
GDP – Iowa and Its Neighboring States
Real GDP Growth Rate Ranking 1997 - 2004, 2005
50
40
30
20
10
0
*Iowa ranks the lowest among its neighboring states in real GDP growth in 2005
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Missouri
Growth Rate Ranking 2005
Nebraska
Illinois
Iowa
Wisconsin
Minnesota
South Dakota
Growth Rate Ranking 97-04
Personal Income Growth – Iowa and Its Neighboring States
Billions
Personal Income Growth: Iowa and Its Neighboring States
2006: I - 2007: I
$600
$300
$0
South
Dakota
Nebraska
2006: I
Iowa
2006: II
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Missouri
2006: III
Wisconsin Minnesota
2006: IV
2007: I
Illinois
Personal Income Growth – Iowa and Its Neighboring States
Personal Income Growth Rate Ranking: Iowa and Its
Neighboring States 2006: I - 2007: I
50
25
0
South
Dakota
Iowa
Nebraska Wisconsin Minnesota
Missouri
Illinois
ranking
*Rankings among the 50 states, where the higher the ranking number, the lower the personal income growth rate is.
Therefore, South Dakota and Iowa have very low personal income growth rate.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Per Capita Personal Income Growth – Iowa
Top 10 Counties in Iowa by Per Capita Personal Income Growth:
2005
10
8
6
4
2
0
Polk
Linn
Dallas
Scott
Ranking
*Polk County has the fastest personal income growth
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Mills
Johnson Dickinson Wright
Iowa
Muscatine
Consumer Price Index – United States
Selected Consumer Price Index All Urban Consumers US City
Average All items 1982 - 1984 = 100
210
140
70
0
1983
Annual Average
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
1986
1996
2006
Consumer Price Index – United States
Percent Changes in CPI for Urban Consumers 3-Mos Ended and
12-Mos Ended Special Indices, May 2007
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Compound Annual Rate: 3-Mos Ended, May
07
All Items
Food
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Energy
Unadjusted 12-Mos. Ended May '07
All Items Less Than Food and Energy
Stock Market – Dow Jones Industrial Index
Dow Jones Industrial Index
2000-2006
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
2006
2005
2004
Start of Year
Source: Dow Jones Averages Statistics
2003
High Close
2002
Low Close
2001
Year's Close
2000
Jobs – United States
10 Occupations with the Fastest Growth Rate: 2004 - 2014
0%
Home Health Aides
Network Systems and Data…
Medical Assistants
Physician Assistants
Computer Software Engineers,…
Physical Therapist Assistants
Dental Hygienists
Computer Software Engineers, System …
Dental Assistants
Personal and Home Care Aides
Percent
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
20%
40%
60%
Jobs – United States
10 Occupations Projected to Have the Largest Numerical Increases in Employment, 2004 - 2014
Pharmacists
Physicians and surgeons
Chiropractors
Optometrists
Veterinarians
Medical scientists, except epidemiologists
Postsecondary teachers
Computer and information scientists, research
Biochemists and biophysicists
Clinical, counseling, and school psychologists
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jobs – United States
10 Fastest Growing Occupations Requiring Bachelor's Degree or
Higher 2004 - 2014
0%
Network systems & data communications…
Physician assistants (B)
Computer software engineers, applications (B)
Computer software engineers, systems software (B)
Network and computer systems administrators (B)
Database administrators (B)
Physical therapists (M)
Medical scientists, except epidemiologists (D)
Occupational therapists (M)
Postsecondary teachers (D)
20%
Percent
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
40%
60%
Jobs – United States
10 Largest Occupations Requiring Bachelor's Degree or Higher
2004 - 2014
Thousands
0
300
600
900
1200 1500 1800 2100
Postsecondary teachers (D)
General and operations managers (B)
Elementary school teachers, except special ed (B)
Accountants and auditors (B)
Secondary school teachers, except special & voc. …
Computer software engineers, applications (B)
Middle school teachers, except special & voc. ed (B)
Physicians and surgeons (FP)
Computer systems analysts (B)
Lawyers (FP)
Employment 2004
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Job Openings
Jobs – United States
5 Occupations Projected to Have the Largest Numerical Increases in Employment for Bachelor's Degree Holders,
2004 - 2014
Elementary school teachers, except special education
Accountants and auditors
Computer software engineers, applications
Computer systems analysts
Secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jobs – United States
5 Occupations Projected to Have the Largest Numerical Increases in Employment for Master's Degree Holders, 2004
- 2014
Physical therapists
Clergy
Educational, vocational, and school counselors
Instructional coordinators
Rehabilitation counselors
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jobs – United States
5 Occupations Projected to Have the Largest Increases in Employment for First Professional Degree Holders,
2004 - 2014
Physicians and surgeons
Lawyers
Pharmacists
Dentists
Chiropractors
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jobs – United States
5 Occupations Projected to Have the Largest Numerical Increases in Employment for Doctoral Degree Holders,
2004 - 2014
Postsecondary teachers
Clinical, counseling, and school psychologists
Medical scientists, except epidemiologists
Computer and information scientists, research
Biochemists and biophysicists
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jobs – United States
5 Occupations Projected to Have the Largest Numerical Increases in Employment for Bachelor's or Higher Degree
Holders, Plus Work Experience, 2004 - 2014
General and operations managers
Management analysts
Financial managers
Computer and information systems managers
Sales managers
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jobs – United States
-60%
10 Occupations Projected to Have the Largest Job Decline by
Percent: 2004 - 2014
-40%
-20%
0%
Photographic
Processing
Machine…
Computer
Operators
Telephone
Operators
File Clerks
Sewing Machine
Operators
Mail Clerks and
Mail Machine
Operators,…
Credit
Authorizers,
Checkers,…
Meter Readers,
Utilities
Textile Winding,
Twisting, and
Drawing out…
Textile Knitting
and Weaving
Machine…
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jobs – Iowa
Iowa's 10 Fastest Growing Occupations Requiring Bachelor's Degree or Higher
2004 - 2014
0%
20%
Computer software engineers, applications
Computer software engineers, systems software
Network systems and data communications analysts
Biomedical engineers
Physician assistants
Network and computer systems administrators
Database administrators
Computer systems analysts
Industrial engineers
Vocational education teachers, middle school
Growing Percent
Source: http://www.acinet.org
40%
60%
Jobs – Iowa
Iowa's 10 Largest Occupations Requiring Bachelor's Degree or Higher
2004 - 2014
Elementary school teachers, except special education
Secondary school teachers, except special and…
General and operations managers
Postsecondary teachers
Accountants and auditors
Middle school teachers, except special and vocational…
Computer systems analysts
Financial managers
Insurance sales agents
Medical and health services managers
0
5000
Employment 2004
Source: http://www.acinet.org
10000
15000
Job Openings
20000
Jobs – Iowa
Iowa's 10 Occupations with the Largest Number of Employment: 2004
Farmers and Ranchers
Retail Salespersons
Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-…
Cashiers, except Gaming
Office clerks, General
Registered Nurses
Team Assemblers
Janitors and Cleaners, except Maids…
Waiters and Waitresses
Laborers and Freight, Stock, and…
0
Number for 2004
Source: The careeronestop website
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
Jobs – Iowa
Iowa's 10 Fastest Growing Occupations: 2004 - 2014
60%
40%
20%
0%
Computer
software
engineers,…
Computer
software
engineers,…
Home health
aides
Gaming change
persons and
booth cashiers
Gaming
surveillance
officers and…
Network systems
and data
communication…
Psychiatric aides
Biomedical
engineers
Psychiatric
technicians
Gaming dealers
Source: The careeronestop website
Jobs – Iowa
Iowa's 10 Fastest Growing Nonfarm Employment: May 06 - May 07
Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing
Insurance Carriers and Related Activities
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Computer and Electronic Product
Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing
Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods
Transportation and Warehousing
Transportation and Utilities
Construction
Educational Services
0%
Percent
Source: Iowa Workforce Development
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
State Support of Higher Education
 State appropriations to higher education over
different time periods in Iowa and neighboring
states
 State appropriations as percentages of revenue in
Iowa and neighboring states
 State appropriations for operating expenses of
higher education in Iowa and neighboring states
State Appropriations – Iowa and Its Neighboring States
Iowa & Neighboring States' 10-Year % Change in State Appropriations
for Higher Education 1997 - 2007
60%
40%
20%
0%
South Dakota
Nebraska
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers website
Illinois
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Missouri
Iowa
% Change
State Appropriations – Iowa and Its Neighboring States
Iowa & Neighboring States' % Change in State Appropriations for
Higher Ed between 2000 & 2006
40%
20%
0%
-20%
South Dakota
Nebraska
Minnesota
Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers website
Wisconsin
Illinois
Iowa
Missouri
% Change
State Appropriations – Iowa and Its Neighboring States
Iowa & Neighboring States' State, Local, and Net Tuition Revenue
for Higher Education FY 2006
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
South Dakota
Source: Population and tax revenues data from U.S. Census Bureau
Net Tuition
Iowa
Local Tax Appropriations
Minnesota
Missouri
Wisconsin
Nebraska
Illinois
State Source
Political Landscape
 Data on political representation in the Iowa
legislature: Democrat seats vs. Republican seats in the
state house and senate
Political Landscape – Iowa House of Representatives
Iowa State House of Representatives by Party 1995 - 2008
80
60
40
20
0
1995-1996
Democrats
1997-1998
1999-2000
Source: The Iowa Legislature General Assembly website
2001-2002
2003-2004
2005-2006
2007-2008
Republicans
UNI and Peer Institutions
 Carnegie classification (levels of program, size and





setting)
Enrollment
High school graduates
Graduation rates
Scholarship (revenue and financial aid)
Faculty and staff
UNI and Its Peer Institutions – Carnegie Classifications (Undergrad. Programs)
Carnegie
Classification 2005
Institution Name
University of Northern Iowa (UNI)
13
Northern Arizona University (NAU)
13
California State University-Fresno (Cal State Fresno)
11
Illinois State University (Ill State)
14
Indiana State University (Ind. State)
13
Central Michigan University (Central Mich)
13
University of Minnesota-Duluth (U of Minn Duluth)
10
University of North Carolina at Greensboro (UNC Greensboro)
11
Ohio University-Main Campus (Ohio U Main)
14
University of North Texas (U of N Texas)
11
University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire (UW Eau Claire)
10
10
12
14
Balanced Arts & Sciences/Professions, Some Graduate Existence
Professions Plus Arts & Sciences, No Graduate Existence
Professions Plus Arts & Sciences, High Graduate Existence
11 Balance Arts & Sciences/Professions, High Graduate Existence
13 Professions Plus Arts & Sciences, Some Graduate Existence
Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
UNI and Its Peer Institutions – Carnegie Classifications (Grad. Programs)
Carnegie
Classification 2005
Institution Name
University of Northern Iowa (UNI)
18
Illinois State University (Ill State)
18
Indiana State University (Ind State)
18
Central Michigan University (Central Mich)
18
Northern Arizona University (NAU)
15
University of North Carolina at Greensboro (UNC Greensboro)
15
University of North Texas (U of N Texas)
15
Ohio University-Main Campus (Ohio U Main)
14
California State University-Fresno (Cal State Fresno)
12
University of Minnesota-Duluth (U of Minn Duluth)
8
University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire (UW Eau Claire)
4
4
12
15
Postbacclaureate Comprehensive
Single Doctoral (Education)
Comprehensive Doctoral (No Medical/Veterinary)
8 Postbacclaureate with Some Arts & Sciences, Other Dominant Fields
14 Comprehensive Doctoral with Medical/Veterinary
18 Doctoral, Professional Dominant
Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
UNI and Its Peer Institutions – Carnegie Classifications (Size & Settings)
Carnegie
Classification 2005
Institution Name
University of Northern Iowa (UNI)
16
Northern Arizona University (NAU)
16
Illinois State University (Ill State)
16
Central Michigan University (Central Mich)
16
University of North Carolina at Greensboro (UNC Greensboro)
16
Ohio University-Main Campus (Ohio U Main)
16
California State University-Fresno (Cal State Fresno)
15
University of North Texas (U of N Texas)
15
Indiana State University (Ind State)
13
University of Minnesota-Duluth (U of Minn Duluth)
13
University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire (UW Eau Claire)
13
13
Medium Four-Year, Primarily Residential
16
Large Four-Year, Primarily Residential
15
Large Four-Year, Primarily Nonresidential
Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
UNI and Its Peer Institutions - Enrollment
UNI & Peer Institutions' Student Enrollment 2005
60%
40%
20%
0%
Enrollment of Students Admitted
Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
UNI
U of Minn Duluth
Ohio U Main
U of N Texas
Ill State
Ind State
NAU
UW Eau Claire
UNC Greensboro
Central Mich
Cal State Fresno
Enrollment of Students Applied
UNI and Its Peer Institutions - UNI’s Sources of Enrollment in Iowa
UNI's Top 10 Sources of Enrollment in Iowa 20022006
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Fall 2006
Fall 2005
Fall 2004
Fall 2003
Fall 2002
High School Graduates – Iowa and Its Neighboring States
Thousands
Iowa & Neighboring States' High School Graduates Projection
150
100
50
0
Proj. 14-15
Illinois
Source: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics
Wisconsin
Proj. 09-10
Minnesota
Proj. 04-05
Missouri
Iowa
Nebraska
South Dakota
2003-04
UNI and Its Peer Institutions – Graduation Rates
UNI & Peer Institutions' Total and White Graduation Rates 2004
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
Ohio U Main
White
Ill State
UNI
UW Eau Claire
Central Mich
Cal State Fresno
NAU
UNC Greensboro
U of Minn Duluth
Ind State
U of N Texas
Total
UNI and Its Peer Institutions – Faculty and Staff
UNI & Peer Institutions' Tenured Faculty 2005
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Ohio U Main
Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
UNC Greensboro
Ill State
UNI
UW Eau Claire
Ind State
U of Minn Duluth
U of N Texas
Cal State Fresno
Central Mich
NAU
Tenured and on Tenure Track
UNI and Its Peer Institutions – Faculty and Staff
UNI & Peer Institutions' Instructional and Executive Staff 2005
50%
25%
0%
Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
NAU
Exec/Manag
UNC Greensboro
U of Minn Duluth
UW Eau Claire
Cal State Fresno
Central Mich
UNI
Ohio U Main
Ind State
U of N Texas
Ill State
Instruction
UNI & Its Peer Institutions – UNI Faculty
Top 10 UNI Faculty's Bachelors Degree Alma Mater Institutions
2007- 2008
180
150
120
90
60
30
0
UNI & Its Peer Institutions – UNI Faculty
Top 20 Feeder Institutions for UNI Doctoral Degree Holding Faculty
2007- 2008
60
40
20
0
UNI and Its Peer Institutions - Revenues
Millions
UNI & Peer Institutions' Tuition and Fees after Deduction, State Appropriations,
and Total Other Revenues and Additions 2003 - 2004
$180
$120
$60
$0
Total other revenues and additions
Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
Ohio U Main
State appropriations
Central Mich
U of N Texas
Ill State
NAU
U of Minn Duluth
UNC Greensboro
Cal State Fresno
UNI
UW Eau Claire
Ind State
Tuition and fees, after deducting discounts and allowances
UNI and Its Peer Institutions – Financial Aid
UNI & Peer Institutions' Average Amount of Institutional Grant Aid
Students Received 2003 - 2004
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
Ill State
Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
Ohio U Main
NAU
UNC Greensboro
UNI
Cal State Fresno
Ind State
Central Mich
U of N Texas
U of Minn Duluth
UW Eau Claire
Average Grant Aid Amount Students Received
UNI and Its Peer Institutions – Financial Aid
UNI & Peer Institutions' % of Students Receiving Institutional
Grant Aid 2003 - 2004
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
NAU
Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, The Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System
U of Minn Duluth
Central Mich
Cal State Fresno
UNI
Ind State
Ohio U Main
U of N Texas
UNC Greensboro
Ill State
UW Eau Claire
Percentage of Students Receiving Institutional Grant Aid
Implications
 Generic, not tied to any specific initiative
Questions?