ME571/GEO589—Special topics Exploration, mining and environmental geochemistry of uranium deposits Virginia T. McLemore Spring 2016 Introduction Office: Bureau 268, 575-8355521 Cell: 575-517-0525 e-mail: ginger@nmbg.nmt.edu Outline • • • • Safety Class rules Goals Class requirements • Other background info • • • • • • Definitions What is uranium Mine life cycle Legacy issues Radiation safety Economics Safety • Start each class with a safety moment – Each student will be responsible for the day’s safety moment • Note where the restrooms are, emergency exits • Call 911 in case of an emergency Safety—cont • Always make sure that you have full instructions for the job to be done. – Always know your objectives before starting your job. – Make sure you have read the SOPs relating to your job ahead of time. • WHAT ARE SOPs? – Make sure that you have copies of the SOPs with you. Safety—cont • Have the right tools to do the job. – Make sure you have read the SOPs ahead of time. – Make sure that you have a list of tools. – Check to see that you have brought each of the tools from your list. – Avoid deviations from SOPs, unless they have been approved. – Deviations from SOPs (such as using different tools) must be specified and others should be aware of the change. Write deviations down. Safety—cont • Keep your mind on the job you are doing. – By staying focused you are less likely to make a mistake (limit use of cell phones). – By keeping focused, you will be more aware of what is going on around you. – For your general safety, always make sure that you are not working in a roadway. Safety • Future classes each of you will lead a safety moment • I would rather not assign it • Someone send me slides, I can add to my lectures or it can be verbal or you can do your slides separately Class rules Class rules • Can’t make a class, e-mail me ASAP • If you don’t understand me—ask (I don’t hear well) • No cell phones, except for emergencies • Ask questions, participate in the class • Eating and drinking is permitted • Everyone will be assigned to do a safety moment – Safety has become very important in industry – Written or oral – MSHA web site http://www.msha.gov/ Goals in this class Goals in this class • Importance, geology, mining, processing, environmental issues of uranium • What is involved from exploration thru production thru marketing thru reclamation— mines have a life cycle (beginning and end) – Reports, field notes, presentations – Where to look for information – Research needed • Sustainable development – We can mine within public concerns – Social license to operate Goals in this class • • • • • Improve writing and presentation skills What to get out of conferences How to do field reports Basics needed for working in industry Working individually vs. with a team Class Requirements Class Requirements • Class participation (20%) – Safety moment – Readings – Reports on conferences (SME, NMGS) – Questions – Others • • • • Student project (20%) Field trip reports (20%)—teams Mid term exam (20%) Final exam (20%) Grades • • • • • Midterm Final (comprehensive) Student project Class Participation Field trips 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% Class • The class will meet one day per week for 90-180 minutes • Remaining time spent on field trips or in occasional extra discussion sessions (SME meetings, other presentations) • May require extra time for the project presentations Class Details • Exams: Midterm and Final—both are take home exams that will emphasize short answer and essay questions. • Term project—you are required to do a term/research project that will involve some original work, oral presentation to class and written report to me. Class will be asked to evaluate the oral presentation. • Team work and group projects/reports are encouraged, but midterm and final will be on your own. Field trips • There will be 2 or more field trips and a trip report on each trip will be required. I prefer you work as a team. – April 9, Sat after NMGS Spring meeting (Socorro area) – One other weekend in April – On your own to Grants mining museum • A potential field trip after the semester, week of May 23, to travel to Wy and look at active in situ operations Spring breaks? • March 14 spring break—no class • When is UNM and HU spring break? • Week of Feb 22 SME—no class (take home mid term) Term Project • Team work is encouraged • Written report and oral presentation – Lesson plan, poster, and web site on importance of uranium – Mineral resource potential of uranium in a geographic area – Flow/life cycle of uranium in our society – Related to your thesis work – Sampling and analytical procedures for uranium – Grade/tonnage evaluations of uranium deposits – What is the NPEA process? Lectures found on my web site http://geoinfo.nmt.edu/staff/mclemo re/home.html Textbooks • Papers as assigned • Burns, P.C. and Sigmon, G.E., 2013, Uranium—cradle to grave: Mineralogical Society of Canada, Short Course Series, v. 43, 437 p. • International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), 2009, World distribution of uranium deposits with uranium deposit classification: IAEA Report IAEA-TECDOC-1629, 126 p., <http://wwwpub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/TE_1629_web.pdf > • International Atomic Energy Agency, 2000, Methods of Exploitation of Different Types of Uranium Deposits: IAEA, VIENNA, IAEA-TECDOC-1174, 84 p., http://wwwpub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/te_1174_prn.pdf Sources of data • Internet • http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/co mmodity/myb/ • http://www.minerals.com/ • Societies (SME, others) • IAEA https://www.iaea.org/ • USGS http://www.usgs.gov/ • Libraries, file data in state and company files (i.e. not electronic) Wikipedia • Use sparingly • Some of the information on Wikipedia is incorrect • Some of your best data and sources of information are in the library or NMBGMR files and not in electronic form • Be aware of using copyrighted material— get permission QUESTIONS? DEFINITIONS What is a mineral? What is a mineral? Naturally occurring Inorganic Solid Homogeneous Crystalline material With a unique chemical element or compound with a set chemical formula Usually obtained from the ground A mineral or a crystal is composed of a structural unit that is repeated in three dimensions. This is the basic structural unit of a crystal of sodium chloride, the mineral halite. However in industry, minerals refer to any rock, mineral, or other naturally occurring material of economic value, including metals, industrial minerals, energy minerals, gemstones, and aggregates Minerals • Metals • Energy minerals (U, coal, oil, gas, geothermal) • Industrial minerals – Construction materials • Gems What are industrial minerals? • Any rock, mineral, or other naturally occurring material of economic value, excluding metals, energy minerals, and gemstones • One of the nonmetallics • Includes aggregates Why are minerals so important? Why are minerals so important? Your world is made of them! The average American uses about two million pounds of uranium, coal, metals, industrial minerals, over the period of a lifetime. Building blocks of our way of life http://www.mii.org/pdfs/miibaby.pdf http://www.mii.org/pdfs/2011PerCapita.pdf U.S. flow of raw materials by weight 1900-2014. The use of raw materials in the U.S. increased dramatically during the last 100 years (modified from Wagner, 2002). This change in life style results in new products, which depends upon more and new minerals, especially energy minerals! These minerals will be mined from traditional and new types of deposits and are a global market. The trend in the past has been increasing mineral production to meet increasing population. Therefore, uranium, a relatively new commodity will likely follow the same pattern in the future. The main challenge is provide society with its needs, protect future resources, limit alteration of the landscape, and affect local communities as little as possible (i.e. sustainable development). More Definitions A mineral occurrence is any locality where a useful mineral or material is found. A mineral prospect is any occurrence that has been developed by underground or by above ground techniques, or by subsurface drilling to determine the extent of mineralization. The terms mineral occurrence and mineral prospect do not have any resource or economic implications. A mineral deposit is any occurrence of a valuable commodity or mineral that is of sufficient size and grade (concentration) that has potential for economic development under past, present, or future favorable conditions. An ore deposit is a well-defined mineral deposit that has been tested and found to be of sufficient size, grade, and accessibility to be extracted (i.e. mined) and processed at a profit at a specific time. Thus, the size and grade of an ore deposit changes as the economic conditions change. Ore refers to industrial minerals and uranium as well as metals. Mineral Deposits versus Ore Bodies mineral deposit = ore body ore body = reserves mineral deposit = ± reserves + unmineable + uneconomic + mined http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=26&ved=0CGAQFjAFOBQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.estauk.net%2Findex_htm_files%2FMineralDeposits1Introduction_ian_kenyon.ppt&ei=W7TcUMGdHtGNrQHb54DQCw&usg=AFQjCNFe9wj9b44mEcqDyT57C13zjvBwQ&sig2=BzFdcc8OnllFX75PdKDYCw&bvm=bv.1355534169,d.aWM http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=26&ved=0CGAQFjAFOBQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.estauk.net%2Findex_htm_files%2FMineralDeposits1Introduction_ian_kenyon.ppt&ei=W7TcUMGdHtGNrQHb54DQCw&usg=AFQjCNFe9wj9b44mEcqDyT57C13zjvBwQ&sig2=BzFdcc8OnllFX75PdKDYCw&bvm=bv.1355534169,d.aWM http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=26&ved=0CGAQFjAFOBQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.estauk.net%2Findex_htm_files%2FMineralDeposits1Introduction_ian_kenyon.ppt&ei=W7TcUMGdHtGNrQHb54DQCw&usg=AFQjCNFe9wj9b44mEcqDyT57C13zjvBwQ&sig2=BzFdcc8OnllFX75PdKDYCw&bvm=bv.1355534169,d.aWM http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=26&ved=0CGAQFjAFOBQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.estauk.net%2Findex_htm_files%2FMineralDeposits1Introduction_ian_kenyon.ppt&ei=W7TcUMGdHtGNrQHb54DQCw&usg=AFQjCNFe9wj9b44mEcqDyT57C13zjvBwQ&sig2=BzFdcc8OnllFX75PdKDYCw&bvm=bv.1355534169,d.aWM http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=26&ved=0CGAQFjAFOBQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.estauk.net%2Findex_htm_files%2FMineralDeposits1Introduction_ian_kenyon.ppt&ei=W7TcUMGdHtGNrQHb54DQCw&usg=AFQjCNFe9wj9b44mEcqDyT57C13zjvBwQ&sig2=BzFdcc8OnllFX75PdKDYCw&bvm=bv.1355534169,d.aWM Classification Of Mineral Resources On U.S. Federal Land Locatable Minerals are whatever is recognized as a valuable mineral by standard authorities, whether metallic or other substance, when found on public land open to mineral entry in quality and quantity sufficient to render a claim valuable on account of the mineral content, under the United States Mining Law of 1872. Specifically excluded from location are the leasable minerals, common varieties, and salable minerals. Locatable minerals include gold, silver, copper, uranium, and many others Leasable Minerals The passage of the Mineral Leasing Act of 1920, as amended from time to time, places the following minerals under the leasing law: oil, gas, coal, oil shale, sodium, potassium, phosphate, native asphalt, solid or semisolid bitumen, bituminous rock, oilimpregnated rock or sand, and sulfur in Louisiana and New Mexico. Salable Minerals The Materials Act of 1947, as amended, removes petrified wood, common varieties of sand, stone, gravel, pumice, pumicite, cinders, and some clay from location and leasing. These materials may be acquired by purchase only. Other terms Canadian Instrument 43-101 • Set of rules and guidelines for reporting information relating to a mineral property in order to present these results to the Candian stock exchange – created after the Bre-X scandal to protect investors from unsubstantiated mineral project disclosures – gold reserves at (Bre-X's) Busang were alleged to be 200 million ounces (6,200 t), or up to 8% of the entire world's gold reserves FRAUD • Similar to JORC (joint ore reserves committee code, Australia) • South African Code for the Reporting of Mineral Resources and Mineral Reserves (SAMREC) Other terms • Adjacent property – Company has no interest – Boundary close to project – Geologic characteristics similar to project • Advanced property – Mineral reserves – Minerals resources with a PEA or feasibilty study • Early stage exploration property Qualified person (43-101) • engineer/geoscientist with a university degree, or equivalent accreditation, in an area of geoscience, or engineering, relating to mineral exploration or mining • has at least five years of experience • has experience relevant to the subject matter of the mineral project and the technical report • is in good standing with a professional association What is uranium? Conversions An ore grade of 1% U3O8 is equivalent to 0.848% U 1 million lbs U3O8 are equivalent to 385 metric tonnes of U Uranium Hard, dense, metallic silver-gray, naturally occurring element Atomic number 92 Atomic weight 238.02891 Ductile, malleable, poor conductor of electricity Discovered in 1789 by Martin Klaproth in Germany Named after the planet Uranus Uranium—the highest atomic weight of the naturally occurring elements. Approximately 70% more dense than lead and is weakly radioactive. Uraninite, chief ore of uranium and radium, is a highly radioactive mineral. Helium was first discovered on the earth in samples of uraninite. Radium and helium are found in uraninite because they are the principle products of uranium's decay process. Radioactive isotopes Like other elements, uranium occurs in isotopes (16) differ from each other in the number of particles (neutrons) in the nucleus. Natural uranium as found in the Earth's crust is a mixture largely of two isotopes • U-235 (0.7%) • U-238 (most abundant, 99.3%) Uses Nuclear power plants to generate electricity Other applications • Nuclear weapons • X-ray targets for production of highenergy X-rays • Photographic toner • Analytical chemistry applications • Yellow glass ware and ceramics (historical use) Uses for depleted uranium Yacht keels Counterweights Armor piercing ammunition Radiation shielding (1.7 denser than Pb) Most uranium today is used for nuclear power generation Major energy sources and percent share of total U.S. electricity generation in 2014 • • • • • Coal = 39% Natural gas = 27% Nuclear = 19% Hydropower = 6% Other renewables = 7% – Biomass = 1.7% – Geothermal = 0.4% – Solar = 0.4% – Wind = 4.4% • Petroleum = 1% • Other gases < 1% http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3 NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS http://www.insc.anl.gov/pwrmaps/map/world_map.php Why is uranium important for providing electricity? Mine Life Cycle Stages of Mining • Exploration (discovery, pre-mining, undisturbed) – Mineral resource potential – Prefeasibility/Feasibility study • Mine development (inc. continued exploration) • Operations (extraction/production/expansion) – Processing/beneficiation/milling/smelting/refining – Mine expansion/standby • Marketing • Closure/postclosure/post-mining use – Long-term monitoring The Mine Life Cycle 1A 4A Suspension Termination Temporary Closure (often repeated) 1 2 Exploration 1-10 years 3 Detailed Site Investigation, Design and Estimating for Closure 4 6 5 Operation Final Closure and Decommissioning Construction 2 - 100 years Progressive Rehabilitation 1-5 years Typically 1 - 3 years 2A Suspension Termination Key Mine Life Cycle 1960's Mine Life Cycle 1970s + Mine Life Cycle 2000 Source: John Gadsby, Vancouver BC, 2002 Post Closure In Perpetuity EXPLORATION Exploration • identification of areas with potential for discovery of an economic mineral deposit • geology governs the quest • surveys • sampling • geophysics • drilling • pits • shafts, adits • base-line/pre-existing conditions Generation of new project ideas/targets • • • • • Corporate objectives Previous experience or knowledge Old mining districts Recent information Literature, including unpublished reports, theses, news releases • New developments by other companies Land Access • Is the area open to mineral exploration • Who owns the land – federal government – state government – private – Indian – other • Transportation SAMPLING AND ANALYSES • How are you going to sample? • What are the end-use specifications? • What processing must occur? PREFEASIBILITY STUDY OR PRELIMINARY FEASIBILITY STUDY (PEA) • • • • Preliminary feasibility study 7.5 months to complete Due diligence work Is it worth it to continue FEASIBILITY STUDY FEASIBILITY STUDY • Intermediate feasibility study 2-3 yrs to complete • final feasibility study 2-3 yrs to compete • Is this property economic? • What are the reserves? • Can we mine this property? • Can we market this product? • What are the environmental consequences? • What is the land status? New technologies are being developed that will increase the chance of finding a new deposit, save money, disturb less land, and minimize affects on local communities and cultures. Geologic methods • Robust thermodynamic and kinetic geochemical data and models • New ore deposit models, especially for deposits with minimal impact on the environment • More sophisticated 3-dimensional geological and ore reserve models • Better geohydrologic models relating to mineral deposits, including industrial minerals deposits • Geologic maps of mineralized areas • Databases of mineral deposits and mineralized areas Geochemical and geophysical methods • Hand-held and down-hole analytical instruments • Improved cross-bore hole correlation methods and characterization • Better understanding of element mobility in soils and water • Drones (unmanned aircraft) for airborne geophysical methods • Low-cost, seismic methods • Better interpretation of remote sensing and hyperspectral data (Livo and Knepper, 2004) • More sophisticated 3-dimensional geochemical, hydrological, and geophysical models UNMANNED AIRBORNE MAGNETICS (MagSurvey Ltd., http://www.magsurvey.co.uk/) Drilling technologies • Application of existing petroleum and geothermal techniques to mineral exploration • Improvements in drilling methods Required geologic data • size, shape, and variability of the ore deposit • location information • lithology • mineralogy--abundance and morphology • alteration • structural • rock competency data Report on reserves • Data Density Integration of Geological Information • Listing/Recording of Data Set • Data Analysis • Sample Support • Economic Parameters • Mineral resource Model • Interpolation Method • Mineral Resource Validation • Qualified person • Geologist/engineer not involved with the company Evaluation of potential orebody • Ore grade: lots of different units, cut-off grade, homogeneity • By-products: commonly critical to success; Au, Ag, W • Commodity prices: forcasting the future • Mineralogical form: native vs sulfide vs oxide vs silicate Evaluation of potential orebody • Grain size and shape: McArthur River 200 Mt, 10% Zn, 4% Pb, 0.2% Cu, 45ppm Ag • Undesirable substances: As, Sb; calcite in acid leachable U ores • Size and shape of deposits: underground vs open pit • Ore character: hard vs soft (blasting, wall support) cost and safety Evaluation of potential orebody • Cost of capital • Location: infrastructure and transportation • Environmental considerations: VERY IMPORTANT • Taxation: involved subject: depreciation, • Political factors: nationalization, foreign exchange MINE DEVELOPMENT Mine plan or engineering design SME Mine Engineering Handbook MINE DEVELOPMENT • • • • • • Operations/construction lower costs site development construction establish infrastructure develop the mine – surface (open pit, strip mining) – underground (room and pillar, shrinkage stope) – solution/leaching PROCESSING/BENEFICIATION/ MILLING OPERATIONS Processing/beneficiation/milling – Extraction/mining – crushing (primary, secondary) – grinding – concentration (gravity separation, flotation, leaching, SX-EW) – smelting – refining – optimizes the consumption of energy – new technologies CBMM’s plant for FeNb crushing and packaging (June 1999) is fully automated. Manual handling was eliminated and replaced by a robot. http://www.us.cbmm.com.br/english/sources/mine/operat/f_operat.htm MARKETING MARKETING • Transportation • Customer specifications • Clean, recyclable and easily transportable • Changing markets – low cost products – have high levels of performance – minimal environmental impacts CLOSURE/POST-MINING USE CLOSURE/POST-MINING USE • Reclamation • Sustaining post-mining use • Close-out plans Responsibilities of the geologist • Exploration—discovery • Feasibility study--ore body evaluation, reserves • Mine development--mine design and planning • Extraction/production--grade control • Processing/beneficiation/milling • Marketing--develop a market • Closure/post-mining use--environmental geology Discovery to Development Typical Timeline • >10 years Recent Real Life Examples • Langer Heinrich, Namibia (Paladin Resources) Discovery – 1973 Production – 2007 • Cigar Lake, Canada (Cameco) Discovery – 1981 Production – 2008? Uranium Exploration/Mining Company Risks • Political – Permitting – NGOs – Nationalization • Technical – Infrastructure – Project Viability – Equipment – Labor • Economic – Uranium Price – Financing Global Challenges Country Production (U3O8) lbs (MM) Status % Canada 26 25% Indigenous landowner issues. Uranium mining banned in Nova Scotia. Australia 20 19% Indigenous landowner issues. Uranium mining banned in QLD & WA. Kazakhstan 14 13% Heavy state intervention in the industry. Niger 9 9% Rebel activity. Increase in Govt ownership. Russia 8 8% Threat of nationalization. Namibia 8 8% No new exploration licences. Infrastructure challenges. Uzbekistan 6 6% Heavy state intervention in the industry. USA 4 8% Environmental groups. Indigenous landowner issues. Production Source: WNA. Other 8 8% Total 103 How does uranium exploration and mining differ from other commodities? Legacy Issues Legacy Issues Life Cycle Stage Example Legacy Issue Relative Cost Negative Perception Exploration Abandoned mines Low Moderate Mining, milling Tailings cleanup, groundwater, etc. Moderate to High Moderate to High Conversion, Enrichment, Fuel Production Manufacturing plants, enrichment facilities, waste High Moderate to High Nuclear Power Plant Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, Closure of others High High Waste Storage, Interim and Final Multiple locations, Utah interim storage site, Yucca Mountain High High Weapons Manufacturing plants, Nevada Test Site, Japan WWII, terrorism High High 3 Mile Island Facts (1979) • No one died • All litigation claims for physical harm were denied in court • One reactor shut down • 7 nuclear reactors in 4 locations in eastern Pennsylvania • Pennsylvania 36% of its energy comes from nuclear power—2nd behind Illinois Chernobyl Facts (1986) • 100 people died • 50 tons of radioactive dust and debris scattered around the nearby Ukrainian countryside • 18 mile circle designated Chernobyl Exclusion Zone • Pockets within this zone are at normal radiation levels • At first cows were unable to produce offspring, but now are able to—no mutilated cows Fukushima Daiichi, Japan (2011) • tsunami occurred 50 minutes after the initial earthquake • damage caused by the tsunami produced equipment failures • a loss-of-coolant accident followed with three nuclear meltdowns (severe nuclear reactor accident that results in core damage from overheating) and releases of radioactive materials beginning on 12 March 12, 2011 Fukushima Daiichi, Japan—2 • no fatalities linked to short term overexposure to radiation • 18,500 people died due to the earthquake and tsunami • 1,000 are estimated to have died due to workers' exposure and the evacuation of residents near the power plant • 100,000 people were evacuated from their homes • • http://fukushimaupdate.com/ http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Safety-and-Security/Safety-of-Plants/Fukushima-Accident/ http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Safety-and-Security/Safety-of-Plants/Fukushima-Accident/ There are risks in everything we do, but the perceptions can and do out weigh the actual risk. Public perceptions are important! RADATION SAFETY Radon Problem 1 Working Level (WL) = 100 pCi/L radon in air 1 Working Level Month (WLM) = working 1 month at 1 WL. Current MSHA exposure limit = 0.3 WL or 4 WLM per year. EPA’s household exposure limit = 0.02 WL 1987 NIOSH proposed standard = 1 WLM per year. Radon Problem If the International Commission on Radiation Protection standards were adopted by the US, it is estimated that 50% of coal and m/nm mines could be out of compliance. How do we measure and control radon in anticipation of lower standards in the future? Radon levels vary upon where in the mine you are working. Current International Standards Agency Exposure Quantity Measurement Units NIOSH Recommended Exposure Limits 1 WLM* / year (2040 hours/year) OSHA Permissible Exposure Limits 4 WLM / year (2040 hours/year) EPA Recommended Public Limit 4 WLM / year (2040 hours/year) IAEA & ICRP Recommended Occupational Dose Limits 4 WLM / year (2040 hours/year) *WLM = Working Level Months Working level (WL) is any combination of short-lived radon daughters in 1 liter of air that will result in the ultimate emission of 1.3x105 MeV of potential alpha particle energy. Working level month (WLM) means an exposure to 1 working level for 170 hours (2,000 working hours per year/12 months per year=approximately 170 hours per month). Gather the historic data on uranium miners’ health Identify health and safety concerns relevant to uranium mining employees. Penetration Abilities of Different Types of Radiation Alpha Particles Stopped by a sheet of paper but a hazard in the lungs Radiation Source Beta Particles Stopped by a layer of clothing or less than an inch of a substance (e.g. plastic) Gamma Rays Stopped by inches to feet of concrete or less than an inch of lead Neutrons Stopped by a few feet of concrete Identify, evaluate and develop personal and area radon progeny monitoring instrumentation Radiation exposure is a function of exposure amount and time of exposure. Present and future economics Spot Uranium Price 1988-2015 http://www.uxc.com/review/UxCPriceChart.aspx?chart=spot-u3o8-full The Volatility of the Uranium Market • Complex • Uranium Markets: Three Phases of Volatility 1. Government/Military Driven 2. Supply/Demand Imbalance (Artificial Demand) 3. Disruption Driven Three Uranium Price Booms Eastern Production Constant $ Price 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 3 2 $140 $130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 US$/lb U3O8 . Million pounds U3O8 Western Production Requirements 1 © UxC 47 50 53 56 59 62 65 68 71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 13 16 19 Nicolas Carter, Vice President, December 6, 2007, The Ux Consulting Company, LLC The uranium spot price went from $10/lb U3O8 in 2004 to a peak of $135/lb in the spring of 2007 and then collapsed to $28/lb in 2014. The price now is about $35/lb. Example of supply disruption— Price Behavior Before and After the Second Cigar Lake Flood US$/lb U3O8 $140 © UxC 2nd Ranger Cyclone Announcements $130 $120 $110 $100 $90 $80 nd Cigar Lake 2 Flood Announcement $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Other factors • Sulfuric acid shortage in Kazakhstan will lead to production cutbacks in 2008 and 2009 • Rabbit Lake mining halted ~2007 due to water inflow • New projects experience ramp-up problems or regulatory delays • BHP Billiton expansion of Olympic Dam ???? • Political situation in Niger not positive for existing and new producers • Labor costs and other factor input costs, such as drilling costs, are rising with growth in other commodities • Can China and India keep their rate of expansion? NOTE THE UNITS—SOME ARE IN TONS AND SOME IN POUNDS http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Nuclear-Fuel-Cycle/Mining-of-Uranium/World-Uranium-MiningProduction/ NOTE THE UNITS—SOME ARE IN TONS AND SOME IN POUNDS http://www.eia.gov/uranium/production/quarterly/pdf/qupd_fig1.pdf Uranium Production in New Mexico 20000000 $450,000,000 18000000 $400,000,000 16000000 14000000 12000000 $250,000,000 10000000 $200,000,000 8000000 $150,000,000 6000000 $100,000,000 4000000 $50,000,000 2000000 $0 Years 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988* 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 1960 1958 1956 1954 1952 1950 0 1948 Pounds $300,000,000 Value in dollars $350,000,000 YEAR Pounds Value http://www.goldgeologist.co m/update/mm95.pdf http://www.goldgeologist.co m/update/mm95.pdf http://www.goldgeologist.co m/update/mm95.pdf Uranium production by mining methods http://www.goldgeologist.com/update/mm95.pdf http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Nuclear-Fuel-Cycle/Mining-of-Uranium/UraniumMining-Overview/ Capital Markets Support – A Necessary Requirement Ideal Discovery Pathway Ideal Capital Markets Pathway Timeline Expenditure (Years) (US$MM) From To Ground Acquisition & Exploration Private Company Financing 1 $1 $2 Exploration Initial Public Offering 2 $5 $10 Discovery & Equity Financing Resource Drilling 2 $10 $30 Pre-Feasibility Study 1 $10 $60 Feasibility Study, Debt/Equity Financing Permitting & Project Financing 2 $60 $1,100 Construction 2 Total 10 $86 $1,202 Equity Financing Access to Capital – Key Factors Capital is most accessible in a stable and/or rising price environment. Price Economic Merit Technical Merit Ownership Security Uranium Mining Allowed Social Licence http://www.oecdnea.org/ndd/pubs/2014/720 9-uranium-2014.pdf Summary • Three years after the Fukushima incident in 2014, world uranium production still increased another 11%. • 66 reactors under construction in the world, 158 planned=demand for more uranium • In-situ leaching and recovery increased by more than 250% in just 10 years. – The ongoing worldwide construction of nuclear power plants. – Wild and unpredictable swings in the spot price. – Financing difficulties for large capital expenditure underground projects. – The phenomenal increase in low-cost ISR production from Kazakhstan, which uses sulfuric acid. Assignment • International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), 2009, World distribution of uranium deposits with uranium deposit classification: IAEA Report IAEATECDOC-1629, 126 p., <http://wwwpub.iaea.org/MTCD/publications/PDF/TE_ 1629_web.pdf> • http://www.goldgeologist.com/update/mm9 5.pdf